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Yusei Kikuchi Hires Boras Corporation

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Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi has hired the Boras Corporation to represent him in negotiations with MLB organizations, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Kikuchi is expected to be posted this fall, though there has yet to be a formal announcement to that effect.

With this news that Kikuchi will join one of the game’s most powerful agencies, it seems easy to presume that he’ll indeed be coming over this fall. While the Seibu Lions have indicated they’ll post him if that’s his wish, the star hurler had expressed at least some uncertainty at the conclusion of the Nippon Professional Baseball season.

Kikuchi represents an intriguing potential wild card on the market. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in ranking Kikuchi #12 among possible free agents this winter, there’s reason to believe that the southpaw could slot comfortably into the middle of an MLB rotation. That makes him a valuable asset, particularly at just 27 years of age. On the other hand, Kikichi has had some shoulder issues and isn’t reputed to have an arsenal as impressive as those of countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka.

All things considered, it’s tough to guess at Kikuchi’s true earning power, though we pegged it at six years and $42MM (with Seibu also receiving about $8MM in fees) in our predictions. No doubt, Kikuchi will hope that agent Scott Boras will help find him a robust market and maximize his earnings. Boras has previously represented several players who were seeking to move to the majors, perhaps none more notable or memorable than Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Find up-to-date information on player representation in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Nationals Sign Trevor Rosenthal

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Nov. 5: Rosenthal will also receive a $1MM assignment bonus each time that is traded over the life of the contract, Heyman tweets.

Nov. 3, 9:40am: The deal is now official, per the team (via Twitter). Rosenthal signs a one-year deal with a conditional option for a second season, tweets the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty, among others.

12:58pm: Unsurprisingly, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets, it’ll be a MLB deal that’s structured similarly to the contract that Greg Holland signed with the Rockies for the 2016 campaign. Holland, another Boras client and former closer who was returning from Tommy John surgery on a similar timeline, received a $7MM guarantee in his deal, which also included a hefty incentives package and vesting player option.

In this case, Rosenthal will also be promised $7MM, which includes a buyout on the 2020 option. He can earn up to $14MM in salary for the 2019 campaign, through operation of incentives, and the deal includes a vesting player option that will seemingly be valued at $15MM. Sherman (via Twitter), Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter links), and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) covered the details.

Of course, it’s relatively rare in these cases that the second season makes sense for both sides. If Rosenthal throws well enough to trigger the player option, he could well end up deciding to test the open market, though that might also mean he’d draw a qualifying offer from the Nats. In any event, those possibilities will certainly depend upon his performance in the season to come.

12:00pm: The Nationals are “finalizing” a contract with free agent right-hander Trevor Rosenthal, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Terms of the prospective agreement are not yet known.

Rosenthal, a client of the Boras Corporation, recently put on a showcase to exhibit his form after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Evidently, he impressed the Washington brass, who’ll take a shot on the hard-throwing former Cardinals late-inning standby.

While it’s not yet clear just what role will be given to Rosenthal, who’s still just 28 years of age, the report suggests he’ll “anchor the bullpen.” Though southpaw Sean Doolittle figures to have the inside track on the ninth inning, given his outstanding (albeit injury-shortened) 2018 showing, the Nats could certainly use Rosenthal as their top set-up option or perhaps get more creative in their pen usage based upon situations.

The chance at high-leverage innings seems to have been a motivating factor for Rosenthal, who said as much in an interesting recent chat with Rob Rains of STLSportsPage.com. Rosenthal also held true to his stated desire to put pen to paper before the start of November.

Rosenthal’s TJ procedure took place in late August of 2017, so he is now already about 14 months out from the operating table. There’s every reason to think that he’ll be a full go for Spring Training, particularly since he has already shown that he’s capable of working in his customary upper-nineties velocity.

Of course, the real question with Rosenthal has never been one of arm strength. He has at times dealt with control issues, dishing out 5.4 walks per nine in the 2014 season and a hefty 6.5 free passes per nine in 2016. That latter campaign was a rough one for the flamethrower: he also surrendered a whopping .425 BABIP, lost his closing job, and ended the season with a 4.46 ERA.

In camp in 2017, Rosenthal dabbled with a return to a starting role — he functioned in that capacity in the minors, but never in the bigs — but ultimately returned to the St. Louis relief corps. Before going down to a torn UCL, Rosenthal threw 47 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball with a career-high 14.3 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9. Rosenthal carried a personal-high 15.9% swinging-strike rate for the season, finding an extra gear as he completely abandoned his curve in favor of his slider.

For the Nats, the move represents the second interesting relief addition of the still-early offseason. Previously, the club added Kyle Barracough via trade. These two righties both come with their share of uncertainty, but will unquestionably add a ton of velocity to the Washington pen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rangers Hire Chris Woodward As Manager

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The Rangers officially announced the hiring of Chris Woodward as their  manager for the 2019 season. He signs a three-year deal with a club option for 2022 to become the 19th full-time manager in club history.

He will be introduced by the team at a press conference on Monday, November 5th at 10am CT at Globe Life Park in Arlington.

Woodward’s hiring brings an end to an exhaustive process to identify a successor to recently dismissed skipper Jeff Banister. He was replaced late in the season on an interim basis by Don Wakamatsu, who was considered a candidate for the full-time gig but evidently has not landed it. The hiring was initially reported last night by Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Woodward, who has most recently served as the Dodgers third base coach, was called a “frontrunner” earlier in the day by Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).

The Rangers undertook an extensive search, but the initial effort failed to yield a clear candidate. Woodward, who just finished up his duties with the Dodgers in the World Series, was part of a second wave of names under consideration. Evidently, he aced the interview.

Woodward, 42, built a 12-year MLB career after originally being taken in the 54th round of the 1994 draft. He last saw major-league action in 2011 and hung up his spikes for good after the 2012 campaign, so he isn’t that far removed from his playing days.

Since that time, Woodward has worked in both the Mariners and Dodgers organizations. With Seattle, he served as minor league infield coordinator before moving up to the MLB staff for two campaigns. He ended up joining the staff of Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts. Over the past three seasons, he has high-fived many a homer-trotting Dodger and helped guide the organization to consecutive World Series appearances.

Said the Rangers, via a press release:

“We are excited to welcome Chris Woodward and his family to the Texas Rangers,” said Rangers President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Jon Daniels. “Chris brings high energy, outstanding leadership and communication skills, a strong knowledge of the game and its evolving strategies, and great integrity—attributes that we feel are vital for our next manager. We believe these traits will resonate with our players, our staff, and our fans.  He has also been a big part of a very successful stretch in Los Angeles.

“We interviewed a number of strong candidates during an extensive interview process for our managerial role and believe we have found the right fit in Chris Woodward. We look forward to working with him and everyone on the baseball staff to develop and grow a culture that will lead to success for many years to come.”   

Market Notes: Richards, Kikuchi, Rockies, Realmuto

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Our predictions at the top of the free agent market are certainly not for the faint of heart; by our reckoning, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have chances at securing record-setting contracts. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen, but a more pressing question for hot-stove enthusiasts may be whether we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s agonizingly slow market. It seems fair to say our overall slate of predictions represents a general bet that the activity will pick up this time around. Indeed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that there’s a broader sense that the 2018-19 offseason will feature action. The player market, he says, could be “robust early” and “awfully busy” all winter long.

We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:

  • While Garrett Richards will hit the market while still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, that doesn’t mean he won’t draw strong interest. Indeed, a dozen teams have already reached out, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). It’s no surprise to hear that, as quite a variety of clubs have agreed to two-year contractual arrangements with recovering hurlers in recent seasons, primarily in hopes of capturing value in the second season of the deal. MLBTR predicts that Richards will land a deal right in line with some of those cases.
  • The Dodgers factor as a strong possible suitor for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. It’s hard to argue with that assessment based upon recent history, even if the Los Angeles club seems to be well on its way to filling out a deep rotation mix. The Dodgers have secured several talented but less-hyped starters from Asia via the posting process and have given out several large deals to pitchers with injury questions. In this case, Kikuchi figures to draw a number of suitors, particularly since he’s just 27 years of age. But recent shoulder woes could be a red flag for some organizations. Truthfully, it’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on his potential market, but the Dodgers are among the west coast organizations that seem to be rather good fits if Kikuch is posted, as seems likely but has yet to be decided conclusively.
  • As the offseason gets underway, the Rockies represent a bit of a mystery team. They obviously look to be a contender, but have some clear needs and don’t appear to have much payroll flexibility barring a boost in their spending or clever move to shed salary. GM Jeff Bridich said today, as Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets, that the club will seek to oversee “responsible growth with the payroll,” adding that “success begets more growth.” That seems at least to leave open the possibility that the organization could add some more dollars to the books, though what kind of outlay might be possible remains unclear. Improving a lagging offense is the priority, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.
  • While the Marlins have given prior indication that they hoped to pursue a long-term deal with catcher J.T. Realmuto, his agent shot that idea down rather candidly, indicating that he does not expect his client to don a Marlins uniform in 2019. That hasn’t deterred the Miami brass, though, as Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to cover (Twitter links). CEO Derek Jeter rejoined recently that the Miami organization will decide where Realmuto plays. Today, president of baseball operations Michael Hill says that Realmuto’s apparent preferences won’t “impact in any way how we approach our offseason.” Of course, it still seems quite likely that the Marlins will end up marketing Realmuto this winter, as his value has undeniably crested after turning in a strong season with two more arb years left to go.

Indians “Will Listen” To Trade Proposals On Key Veterans

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The Indians remain in a highly competitive stance coming out of the 2018 season, particularly in an exceedingly weak overall American League Central division. After three-straight divisional titles, the organization still has one of the game’s best — and most affordable — core talent groups.

Still, there are plenty of needs on the roster and seemingly less resources to utilize to fulfill them. The club has in recent years both committed salary and dealt well-regarded prospects to supplement its fantastic bunch of stars.

Given this state of affairs, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link), the Indians “will listen to trade offers” involving key veteran players. He specifically cites top hurlers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, along with pricey veterans such as Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes, and Jason Kipnis, as theoretical trade chips.

Importantly, and unsurprisingly, the club’s two still-youthful, amply controllable stars — Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor — will remain off limits. There’s certainly little reason for the Indians even to contemplate moves involving those players, whose contract rights are among the most valuable in the entire sport.

The most interesting element of this report, undoubtedly, is the possibility of the Indians offering up some of their top-flight pitching talent. Kluber and Carrasco are both excellent pitchers, but they are also signed to highly appealing contracts. The former, a perennial Cy Young contender, can be controlled through 2021 for as little as $30.5MM (though his 2020 and 2021 options can rise in value based upon his Cy placement). The latter, who’s also a top-10 starter over the past three seasons, will pitch for just $9.75MM next and little more in 2020 (his option, too, can be boosted based on the voting).

There’s no specific mention of righty Trevor Bauer, who emerged to take a place alongside his more-accomplished rotation mates. He’s just as plausible a candidate to be moved from an outside perspective, though, given that he’s down to two more years of arbitration control. Bauer is the most youthful of the three, but doesn’t figure to be an extension candidate given his stated preference never to agree to a multi-year deal. Still, he’s projected to earn a bargain $11.6MM for 2019 with one more arb year to go thereafter.

Any of these three pitchers would be hotly pursued this winter, because there just aren’t many alternatives. As our recent Market Snapshot series discussed, the trade market doesn’t seem to offer much in the way of high-end pitching– at least at affordable rates of pay. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Madison Bumgarner do not appear particularly likely even to be discussed in trades. Zack Greinke is still good, but his remaining obligation of $95.5MM is more than it cost the Dodgers to retain Clayton Kershaw earlier today. Meanwhile, the free agent market has a few talented hurlers on offer, but that’ll entail long-term commitments and much greater financial risk.

For some organizations, the possibility of landing one of the Indians pitchers would be a dream scenario. Of course, there’s little question that the Cleveland organization will demand a princely sum. Given its near-term ambitions, far-away prospects likely won’t headline a deal. Instead, the Indians are sure to demand high-quality players that can step right into the lineup while also providing greater long-term value than the starters who’d be dealt. While the Indians may be willing to stake a bet on their ability to find good innings from within, at least sufficient to come out ahead of the divisional opponents, it’s hard to look past the fact that the American League features a few teams that have aggregated an awful lot of talent. Rolling the dice on other hurlers (Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Adam Plutko, Danny Salazar) could be a viable strategy, but only if the Indians can secure young players they truly believe in with a swap.

As for the other players on the Indians roster that could be moved, it seems reasonable to suppose that cost-savings would be a leading motivator. Encarnacion can still swing the bat, but he wouldn’t command his remaining obligation ($25MM, including a 2021 option buyout) on the open market. Gomes rebounded with the bat in 2018, but is earning a relatively hefty $7MM, plus $2MM in buyouts on a pair of options ($9MM and $11MM, respectively) that seem unlikely to be exercised. (Fellow backstop Roberto Perez also receives mention from Olney, though he’s much cheaper and his control runs further into the future. He also struggled notably in 2018.) No doubt the club would like to find a taker for some of the $17MM still owed Kipnis ($2.5MM of which is in a buyout), but other organizations would only stake so much on a rebound. First baseman Yonder Alonso ($8MM salary plus $1MM buyout on 2020 option) would also seem a hypothetical possibility.

All things considered, there are quite a few fascinating possibilities to consider. Elite young position-player talent and/or cost savings seem clearly to be in mind here for the Indians. It may require a bit of a tightrope walk to pull things off, but the market situation seems generally favorable to the attempt.

7 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today marked the deadline for players to receive one-year qualifying offers at this year’s rate of $17.9MM. This year, a record-low seven players were issued qualifying offers.

In past years, no fewer than nine players have received qualifying offers. That’s how many were extended offers in the first (2012) and most recent (2017) seasons under the system. On the high side, twenty players received qualifying offers in 2015. But that was also the first year in which any players accepted the one-year offer, which may itself have had an impact on future teams deciding whether to issue it. At the end of the day, of course, the actual players and teams involved matter most, and that can vary quite a bit from year to year based on a wide variety of factors.

New rules went into effect last winter, so you’ll want to review those to understand how the process works. Those rules likely will continue to dampen the use of the QO on the margins, both through the reduction of draft compensation for issuing teams and by the prohibition on multiple QOs for the same player. Of course, it’s worth bearing in mind that every free agent class is different — and that every team situation is as well.

Here are this year’s free agents who were extended a qualifying offer by their teams (in alphabetical order):

Several players that were discussed as QO candidates ended up being bypassed — which, generally, is a good thing for their earning power in free agency. Charlie Morton (Astros; post) is the most surprising, with Michael Brantley (Indians; post) and DJ LeMahieu (Rockies; post) among the other conceivable candidates who won’t be weighing offers. Of course, several other prominent players are ineligible to receive a QO because they were traded mid-season (e.g., Manny Machado) or had previously received one (e.g., Nelson Cruz).

Dodgers Announce New Deal With Clayton Kershaw

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The Dodgers have officially struck a new deal with star lefty Clayton Kershaw. It’s a reported three-year, $93MM pact that does not include any new opt-out opportunities — but does have significant incentives.

Kershaw will earn $31MM in each year of the contract. The contract will include some significant incentive pay, allowing him to tack on $1MM each time he reaches 24, 26, 28, and 30 starts — meaning he can add $4MM in each season he’s at full health. Kershaw will also earn $1.5MM if he receives a Cy Young Award or $500K for a top-three finish.

This new deal was formalized just before Kershaw was to make a final decision on his preexisting contract. That pact, signed before the 2014 season, gave him the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM. Rather than testing free agency, and perhaps considering alternative destinations, the veteran southpaw will remain with the only organization he has known as a professional.

This deal will only tack on a single season with $28MM in new money, which may seem light for a pitcher of Kershaw’s accomplishments. On the other hand, he has not been his previously peerless self over the past three campaigns. Kershaw will turn 31 before the start of the 2019 season and has only averaged 162 frames annually since the start of 2016. Given that he obviously preferred to remain with the Dodgers, perhaps it’s not terribly surprising that he’ll sign on for another year at a premium rate of pay but without obtaining a significant new term of years.

At the same time, it’s clearly a rather appealing agreement from the Dodgers’ perspective, particularly since they will only be on the hook through his age-33 campaign. Kershaw remains one of the game’s more productive starters, after all, and his immense talent base is impossible to ignore. In every season from 2011 through 2014, Kershaw led the National League in ERA and WHIP. He was just as dominant in all respects in the two ensuing seasons, though 2016 was when back issues became a problem.

More recently, as back ailments have continued to pop up, Kershaw’s peripherals have slipped. He has been somewhat more prone to the long ball, in particular. Plus, his fastball velocity dipped notably in 2018, landing at 91.4 mph. Even still, Kershaw has provided 336 1/3 innings of 2.52 ERA ball, over 53 starts, since the beginning of the 2017 season.

To compensate for the loss of heat, Kershaw has relied far more heavily than ever before on his slider, while maintaining his occasional use of a big hook. Regaining some fizz on the fastball would certainly go a long way toward Kershaw regaining his mastery, though it seems reasonable to believe he can continue to produce quality results even if that’s not in the offing.

Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) first reported the deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links) had financial details.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Astros Claim Chris Herrmann

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The Astros have claimed catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from the Houston organization.

Herrmann, 30, is eligible for arbitration and projected by MLBTR to receive a $1.5MM salary. Whether he makes it through the non-tender deadline on the Houston roster remains to be seen, but he’ll obviously be considered as a possibility.

Soon to turn 31, Herrmann has had an interesting career to this point. Capable of lining up behind the dish, in the corner outfield, and at first base, he can be an interesting roster piece when he delivers enough offensive punch.

Herrmann was a light-hitting reserve catcher with the Twins before landing with the Diamondbacks and turning in a big (albeit brief) showing with the bat in 2016. That all disappeared in the following season. In the 2018 campaign, though, he hit well at Triple-A and then turned in a solid .237/.322/.421 output in 87 plate appearances with Seattle.

Rays Outright Andrew Kittredge, Vidal Nuno

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The Rays have outrighted right-hander Andrew Kittredge and lefty Vidal Nuno from their 40-man roster after both cleared waivers, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). The former was assigned to Triple-A while the latter has elected free agency.

Kittredge, 28, suffered mightily in the majors in 2018, getting torched for 33 earned runs in 38 1/3 innings. He fared much better at Triple-A, however, and has generally impressed of late in the upper minors. It seems reasonably likely he’ll get another shot at some point if a need arises.

As for Nuno, the 31-year-old was quite effective in his brief time in the majors, allowing just six earned runs in 33 innings over 17 appearances. He also had a solid showing in a starting role at Triple-A. While the Rays obviously did not want to commit to keeping him around, plenty of other teams will be glad to give him a look in camp in 2019.

Mets Outright Conlon, Montero, Evans, Callahan

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The Mets have outrighted four players from their 40-man roster, per a club announcement. Lefty P.J. Conlon was assigned to Triple-A after clearing waivers, while Rafael Montero, Phillip Evans, and Jamie Callahan also cleared but are all now free agents.

Conlon, who’ll soon turn 25, is a rarity as a Belfast-born big leaguer. He had a rough all-around campaign in 2018 despite reaching the majors, with poor results there and at Triple-A. However, the southpaw has had greater success previously in the minors and could still have a chance to reestablish himself.

Of these players, Montero certainly has the most name recognition. Once considered a future rotation stalwart, his career had largely stalled out before he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2017 campaign.

Callahan is another righty with some former prospect notoriety. He was a second-round pick in 2012, and had some successes in the minors after moving to a relief role. After a brief 2017 call-up, though, Callahan lost almost all of his 2018 season to shoulder surgery.

Evans has spent his entire career with New York to this point and saw MLB action in each of the past two seasons. A versatile defender who has plenty of experience at shortstop, Evans will mostly be considered as utility infield depth. He did launch a career-high 14 home runs in only 245 Triple-A plate appearances in 2018, though, which could increase his appeal to other organizations.

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