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Heated MLB Letter To MLBPA Highlights Ongoing Acrimony

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MLB didn’t just provide the MLBPA a new economic proposal today. It also filed some fighting words in the letter delivering its latest offer for a coronavirus-shortened campaign, as Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic report (subscription link).

Deputy MLB commissioner Dan Halem suggested the union has not acted in good faith in negotiations, hinting at the league’s possible stance if and when this matter ends up before an arbitrator. By Halem’s framing, labor is taking an obstructionist stance as the league provides what it labels a “final counterproposal” for a 72-game season.

That the sides are now exchanging angry letters, even as the clock ticks on squeezing in games, is to an extent merely confirmation of that underlying state of affairs. But there’s also a nod to a serious escalation lurking just beneath the surface. Halem hints less than subtly at a possible effort by the league to disrupt the sides’ late March agreement, claiming the union has “purposely failed to fulfill its obligations” and “deprived the Clubs the benefit of their bargain” in the contract.

No doubt the league already anticipated the likely outcome when it sent this shot across the bow. The union is expected to decline, and do so before the league’s appointed Sunday deadline, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

While the overall MLB salary offer has morphed in kind and crept up in value, the league’s bargaining posture remains the same as ever. The same holds true on the players’ side, where full pro rata pay has long been seen as a sine qua non.

The league begins from the premise that it can force a greatly truncated season with the players receiving pro rata pay for a third or less of a normal slate of games. Anything more? That’s gravy for the players, so they should be glad to get a marginal return for additional games played, particularly since the league is willing to dangle some added payment for an expanded postseason slate (should that prove possible). Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt laid this out rather forthrightly in his eyebrow-raising recent interview.

The players come from quite the opposite direction. By their view, the sides’ late-March agreement provided for pro rata pay for any games played. While that deal also contemplated the sides “discuss[ing] in good economic feasibility of playing games in the absence of spectators,” the players don’t believe that disrupts the salary clause.

Given those radically different viewpoints, it’s not hard to see why this dispute seems to be so intractable. Indeed, Halem now asserts in the letter that the players have no initial right to pay in the first place. While many are playing under guaranteed contracts, Halem notes that the league could have suspended them upon the declaration of a national emergency. Of course, Manfred didn’t take that course. The late March agreement reportedly requires the commissioner to exercise good-faith efforts to stage as many games as possible, as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper notes on Twitter. And a players’ association source tells Rosenthal and Drellich that the league’s own attorneys acknowledged in letter correspondence that “players are not required to accept less than their full prorated salary.”

As we’ve pointed out here previously, it’s completely absurd that the sides remain entrenched in a disagreement over an agreement they signed in late March — one that was intended to deal with the COVID-19 shutdown. Perhaps that’s the best way to understand the acrimony and distrust: the sides evidently never really saw eye to eye even as they signed that agreement.

Tigers Fourth-Rounder Gage Workman Intends To Sign

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Tigers fourth-round selection Gage Workman says he fully intends to sign with the club, as Jeff Metcalfe of the Arizona Republic reports. While the sides haven’t yet agreed to terms, it appears there’s at least a mutual expectation that’ll come to pass.

While it’s never much of a surprise to see a draft pick join a team — usually, there’s at least some amount of correspondence in advance of the selection to assure as much — there was reason to wonder whether Workman would end up turning pro. The Arizona State product had “lots of leverage due to his age” — Workman graduated from high school early — and the still-appealing possibility returning to school, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs notes on Twitter.

Workman, you may have noticed, was the infield mate of top overall draftee Spencer Torkelson. The pair will launch their careers with the Detroit organization — perhaps even sharing the left side of the same infield once baseball finally resumes. The Tigers announced Torkelson as a third baseman, the position that Workman played at ASU. Workman is seen as potentially being capable of sticking at shortstop over the long haul and could at minimum begin his professional career there.

These two weren’t the only collegiate hitters selected by the Tigers over the past two days. The club took three more such players in the middle before going for high school third baseman Colt Keith with their sixth and final selection. It seems clear the Detroit organization hopes that some of these new draftees will catch up with the club’s imposing slate of upper-level pitching prospects.

Adding Up The Braves Future Salary Obligations

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Braves:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Ozzie Albies, Will Smith, Ender Inciarte, and Darren O’Day

(click to expand/view detail list)

Baseball’s Most Interesting Upcoming Free Agent?

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This post is about Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons. But really, it’s about how teams value and conceive of defense in the game of baseball … and what his upcoming free agency could tell us about it.

On the one hand, it’s rather straightforward: preventing runs is as good as creating them. It’s an oversimplification, but for the most part the name of the game is simply to turn would-be baserunners into outs.

Things get quite a bit more complicated when you wade into an attempt at valuing a given player’s impact on a team’s ability to make outs and prevent runs. Avoiding miscues is obviously a big part of the picture, but that hardly provides the full picture of a defender. (Past a diving Jeter, anyone?) Range — the ability to get to more balls — is obviously of critical importance. And there are a host of subtle skills to consider … catcher framing, perhaps, being the most susceptible of statistical precision. But how do you value a tagging maestro, for example? And how do we account for contemporary baseball’s ceaseless shifting, particularly given that much of it is engineered by analysts rather than players’ gut instincts on positioning?

While it’s pretty easy to get a sense of a hitter’s profile and productivity from a glance at a stat sheet, it’s obvious that truly understanding defensive value requires more. Even the most sophisticated analytical systems have struggled to reach anything like the kind of precision that we’d need to make fine distinctions. Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved, and the more recent Statcast-based Outs Above Average all have their merits and aid in the understanding of a ballplayer. But it’d be a stretch to say that you could look at the numbers they produce and use them to determine that player A is superior to player B at fielding his position.

All that said … shouldn’t we listen when all the stats, and all the scouts, and all that we see with our own eyes tell us that one particular player is in his own particular category when it comes to defensive play? On a rate basis, no infielder comes particularly close to Simmons in UZR. To understand how that translates to value when estimating runs saved and tabulating wins above replacement … well, just look how many more innings it took guys like J.J. Hardy and Jimmy Rollins to accrue similar total value above replacement at the shortstop position. And it’s not just UZR. Far from it. By measure of DRS, Simmons has been outlandishly superior to the rest of the shortstop field. Statcast, at least, shows some competition over the past three seasons from Nick Ahmed, but it too agrees that Simmons is an exceptional performer. (It’s also less than clear that Statcast is as useful for infielders as it is for outfielders.)

It doesn’t seem wild to presume, for purposes of this post at least, that Simmons is a historically amazing defensive performer. Teams no doubt have their own ways of translating fielding performance to value, but it’s generally reasonable to believe they’ll put a high price on run prevention. Even if you’d rather market a slugger than a glove-first shortstop, there’s no general reason to prefer the former to the latter from a competitive standpoint.

Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that a truly elite defender is all the more valuable to a team — especially in this day and age. Positioning defenders to account not only for hitters, but defenders, has long been a part of the sport. But it’s now done with much greater sophistication and frequency. The Reds just signed Mike Moustakas to play second base after watching the Brewers try him there despite a career spent at third. For creative ballclubs looking for ways to shoehorn every advantage into a lineup, the ability to deploy a human vacuum/cannon on the left side of the infield could convey even greater value than that player’s directly attributable individual contribution.

It’s truly fascinating to imagine what teams might envision doing with Simmons … and wondering how much they’ll be willing to pay. (Setting aside the likely market-skewing impact of the coronavirus-shortened season, anyway.) The Diamondbacks just made a fairly significant outlay to Ahmed, despite the fact he has never really come close to league-average offensive productivity over a full season and was still a year from free agency. Even if you believe Ahmed has approached Simmons in defensive capabilities, he hasn’t done it as long. And Simmons has a far superior overall track record at the plate, with a lifetime batting output that’s about the same as Ahmed’s single-season peak. Supposing Simmons is in typical form in 2020 — unparalleled glovework and league-average-ish offense — he ought to fetch a fair sight more on the open market … particularly if big-market teams get involved with big ideas about how to squeeze value from such a unique player.

Did The Tigers Make The Right Choice At 1-1?

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We polled MLBTR’s readers last night about the biggest surprises on the first day of the 2020 MLB draft. Thus far, the Red Sox’ decision to choose Nick Yorke in the first round has drawn the most votes.

Before Yorke’s name was called, the Tigers had first crack at every single player available. The rebuilding ballclub went with Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson, an advanced player with an unassailable offensive track record, effectively making him the heir apparent to legendary slugger Miguel Cabrera. The two could well overlap in the middle of the Detroit order for a few years, supposing Torkelson develops as hopes and Cabrera can rebound.

Easy enough, right? There weren’t any gasps of disbelief when Torkelson’s name was called. Then again … the Tigers did have other options.

Pundits have long debated whether Torkelson or Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin was a better selection at the top of the board. The latter has a much broader toolset and could potentially have fit into the long-term picture in Detroit in any number of ways. There’s a reason the Blue Jays were thrilled to see him somehow still available with the fifth overall selection. Perhaps the Tigers would’ve been wiser to roll with a player of this sort, particularly given the club’s complicated recent history with defensively limited slugger types. (While the Tigers have thrived with big bats, they’ve also whiffed on big money to Cabrera and Victor Martinez and ran into difficulty maximizing their control rights over J.D. Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos.)

As the Orioles showed us, that wasn’t the only alternative. The Baltimore organization decided to cut a deal with another highly valued prospect, Heston Kjerstad, in order to (presumably) allocate some of the bonus pool funds from their lofty draft pick to day-two selections. Given the limitations of this year’s draft, that strategy could open the door to some high-ceiling talent and spread the team’s draft resources over multiple players. As the debate over Torkelson and Martin shows, neither of the two was considered an especially compelling 1-1 candidate when viewed against those taken at the top in past years. The Tigers, like the O’s, certainly need a volume of players and could conceivably have taken this path as well.

There was at least one other possible approach for the Detroit brass to bat around: taking top collegiate hurler Asa Lacy of Texas A&M. The club reportedly dabbled with that idea ahead of time, due in part to the fact that they’ll now have to negotiate with agent Scott Boras over terms on Torkelson. (Boras also reps Martin.) Taking Lacy would’ve put another advanced arm into a system that’s already loaded with them. And that would’ve fit as part of a legitimate plan to pump arms into the system. There’s a reason we’ve all heard the phrases, “you can never have enough pitching” and “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” There’s risk and upside and need all at once. Had the Tigers ended up with an over-abundance of MLB-ready arms … well, they’d likely have little trouble finding innings and/or swapping some hurlers out for whatever bats they might need at the time. Lacy might not have been such an under-slot play as the O’s pulled, but perhaps there’d have been some leftover coin to work with in that scenario as well.

So … how do you view the Tigers’ decision? (Poll link for app users.)

Harper Leads Hefty Slate Of Future Phillies Contract Commitments

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Prior entries can be found here. Next up is the Phillies:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Aaron Nola, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen, Scott Kingery, Odubel Herrera and David Robertson

(click to expand/view detail list)

Oscar Colas Seeking Release From Contract With Japanese Team

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It emerged in January that intriguing Cuban talent Oscar Colas — who holds promise both as a pitcher and position player — was seeking to launch a big-league career. While he departed his home island to pursue that dream, there are some other complications that must still be navigated.

Colas drew attention last year for his high-quality showing with Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. But as Jim Allen reports for Kyodo News, that appearance left some strings attached in the world’s top non-MLB league.

You’ll want to read Allen’s piece for the full rundown, but the gist is that Colas’s contract grants the Hawks five option years. His representatives believe the deal should be invalidated, at least after its initial term expires after the 2020 season.

There are several issues with the original agreement, Colas’s camp contends. For one thing, they say it was signed before he reached the age of consent under Japanese law (and without the signature of his guardian). For another, Colas’s reps claim the agreement was orchestrated by the Hawks and Cuban baseball officials, with Colas not fully informed of some key terms. Colas’s mother says the family believes it was “deceived” by the process. She alleges that the family never had an understanding of the options or a chance to review the contract before it was put in front of Colas to sign during a news conference. Allen’s report makes clear that there are several messy underlying factual disagreements, including whether Colas even personally signed certain documents.

It is not clear at this point whether and how this matter will be resolved. Colas’s reps have offered that he would play in 2020 if he’s allowed to depart thereafter, but the team has unsurprisingly insisted it retains control rights thereafter.

Colas will surely draw interest from MLB organizations if and when he’s able to market himself, whether through the posting process or as a free agent. Whatever the merits of the underlying factual disputes, this represents yet another instance in which a ballplayer has become entangled on the largely unmarked, obstacle-strewn path from Cuba to the majors.

Despite Recent Signings, Marlins Don’t Owe Much Beyond 2020

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Marlins:

*Includes buyouts of club options over Miguel Rojas and Brandon Kintzler

(click to expand/view detail list)

2020 MLB Draft Resources

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Like most everything else, the MLB draft will take place in an unusual fashion this year. This year’s 2020 Rule 4 amateur selection show will launch at 5pm EST, but it’ll be held remotely and it will end after only five rounds — well shy of the typical forty-round affair. Bonuses will be capped as usual, but they won’t be paid up front. Instead, players can only receive up to $100K at the outset, with the rest deferred to 2021-22.

Three days from now, draft-eligible players that went unselected will be eligible to sign. There’ll be a large number of worthwhile candidates out there, but none can sign for more than $20K under the coronavirus-specific rules.

The atypical circumstances only increase the potential for wild outcomes. It might feel like normal at the top of the draft, where the scuttlebutt is that the Tigers will kick things off by taking ASU first bagger Spencer Torkelson, but things could get weird quickly thereafter. There has been some chatter that a team could even punt the draft — perhaps even one that has a fairly lofty draft position, per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper examined that possibility, concluding it likely doesn’t make much sense for a team to pursue.

We’ll find out soon enough. As we wait, here are some resources to learn up on how this year’s draft came together or see how prognosticators expect it to turn out …

What The Mets Owe In Player Contracts After 2020

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2020 salary terms still need to be hammered out. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the Mets:

*Reflects signing bonus and salary deferrals in Jacob deGrom contract; contract includes partially deferred 2024 club option but deGrom can opt out after 2022

*Reflects remaining obligations to Robinson Cano retained by Mariners

*Reflects deferrals in Jeurys Familia contract

*Includes minimum value ($6MM) of variable-rate vesting/player option in Dellin Betances contract (Betances to receive $3MM buyout if he declines)

*Includes buyouts of club option over Wilson Ramos

*Includes player option of Brad Brach

*Does not include any money still owed Bobby Bonilla!

(click to expand/view detail list)

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