Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season. Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season. Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.
That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted. Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria. The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.
Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down. The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.
68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)
San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft. With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending. The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason. Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.
It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal. Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized. Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded. We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.
Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.
Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections). The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.
Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner. This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).
Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection. However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection. The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.
Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.
Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.
Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty. The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith. In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.
Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions. First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick. Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations. Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.
This is a big draft for the Giants. Four picks within the top 70 picks, gotta make it count
5 in 87
I googled 2020 Draft Order MLB. It had the giants drafting 79th not 87th. Either this article is in error or the list I googled is.
Hopefully they can hit on a starting pitcher for the first time since Bumgarner.
Giants drafted Zack Wheeler in 2009. Of course they traded him before he could play for them.
Seth Corry might be that hit, or Logan Webb or Hjelle. We never know.
I’ll wager that the Giants will be lucky that one of the four will be major league ready.
Coal tender, none will be major league ready when drafted. “One” being major league ready would be lucky, but I doubt that was your post’s intent.
I had part of a slinky. But I straightened it.
What you do in the bedroom should stay in the bedroom.
Do….Ray……Egon
Nice!
I carried a watermelon….
Their chicken parm is their worst sandwich
Braves still limited by the punishment of international signings, Houston sin a championship and the punishment was 1 year of punishment for the individuals and 5 million…
Win*
they lost a lot of draft capital too.
Braves still got killed in retrospect compared to astros when one effected the actual league and one had the potential to is all. Almost all the international player the Braves signed and then had to release have faded away to non prospect. Meanwhile we know astros had inflated MLB numbers by going above and beyond while using tech to change the game most fans care about more major league games not minor league games.
Mario, of course, has his iconic red cap with an “M” on it. It spawned out of the difficulty to draw hair on a sprite back in ’81, so he was instead given a cap. Similar situations also spawned his equally iconic overalls and his moustache.
your not wrong, but what Cop did is a lot more questionable in a non baseball sense. anything that reads “unsanctioned deals with minors” has the potential to be much more concerning to the public. the astros thing only really matters to those invested in the sport.
You’re wrong for typing “your”. Sorry, I’ll see my way out.
We know they did? Because the evidence doesn’t really indicate that.
We know they did? Because the evidence doesn’t really indicate that.
Everyone knows that.
Not really. He basically gave a lesser player money that he would NEVER have received in order to slide additional money to a more talented player. In reality, the moves actually helped two people and probably had zero true negative impact on any of the ‘signees’. The only true negative might have been that other teams might have lost a shot at the player. So realistically, it only really mattered to those invested in the sport.
The MLB international nonsense has to stop. Why should foreign born players essentially be granted free agency when local products do not get that. Also, it potentially allows players to sign with better markets if they think that far ahead (though they could always get traded).
Houston’s nonsense could be affecting entire families in a negative way. Pitchers not getting outs they might could have can affect their earning ability, which impacts their entire family. Multipl that times the sheer number of pitchers they likely cheated against and the numbers start adding up.
To me, if John Coppolella got perma-banned, then all those found to be involved in Houston should have as well. I would even go so far as to say what they did was even worse than Pete Rose betting on his team to ‘win’. Then you got Keuchel coming out with a ridiculous apology that wasn’t an apology. They just don’t get it.
Do you “sheep ” realize that the Astros went53-28 ON THE ROAD in 2017? That was tied for the BEST road record! Yes, they cheated some at home. They hit BETTER on the ROAD as well. If you don’t believe it, LOOK IT UP. i did. No, I’m not an Astros apologist. I’m a BASEBALL FAN and my favorite team is the Atlanta Braves.
It was also a bigger statement at the time. There was rampant speculation that these deals were going on by other teams, so the Commissioner wanted to make a very bold statement. Also, it is one of the ways of acquiring talent, so it deserved a harsher penalty..
@prospect, It’s your assumption that they did not cheat on the road? As if they picked up their moral compass as they left Houston, only to set it aside again when they played at home? Maybe they couldn’t set up their outfield camera, but they still found a way. Cheaters cheat . . . It’s what they do.
You wrote: ““unsanctioned deals with minors” has the potential to be much more concerning to the public. ” I’ll say; people go to prison for that, the monsters.
They have lost their first and second round picks this year and next. I don’t think it would effect the first compensation round although it should. It was extremely disappointing to hear about Beltran’s involvement. This guy was a superstar and just like the steroid era player his career has been tainted.
Thank you for saying this. I have been saying this to dead ears. The Astros punishment was a slap on the wrist in comparison to what the Braves got. I haven’t done the math but the bonuses and salaries paid to the 13 players has to be equitable to the 5mm the Astros got hit with when you factor the earnings they made from the world series.
I get it what the Braves didn’t want right but cheating on prospects that may never pan out is much different that altering in time game results.
Indeed, the Braves lost over 40 million dollars in international signings, the Astros financial loss isn’t anywhere near that. However the stigma now associated with the Astros will follow them for years while most fans have already forgotten about the Braves transgressions.
I haven’t forgotten about it but I don’t think it was publicized as much as the Astros. I typically just follow the Cards but the Astros were in national news.
The Braves didn’t cooperate with MLB’s investigation (or at least the GM at the time didn’t), while the Astros did. Astros basically took a plea deal for a light sentence, while the Braves fought the charges.
People who bring this up forget about this. This is also why the braves were punished more harshly than the Red Sox. The Braves chose to lie and try to get away with it.
That is not true. People who bring it up are pulling it out of nowhere. The Braves did cooperate from the moment the MLB started the investigation.. The were hit more heavily because a precedent had already been set and because they did it over multiple years. They likely would not have been penalized much for the first two years of doing sneaky stuff, but the third supposedly happened after Boston was penalized (hence a precedent set). So, they got hit hard.
mlb.com/press-release/commissioner-s-statement-reg…
And by the way, the MLB had already investigated the Astros and came away with nothing because people FLAT OUT LIED. It wasn’t until unassociated people and Mike Fiers told the truth that they were actually able to put it all together. Now, I will not presume to know who the MLB had talked to previously, but I think they should be perma-banned.
I hope in the next CBA all picks can be dealt. Create a little more offseason action
Agreed would really make things interesting
Until some fool GM trades all his future picks. With San Diego giving a mandate to the GM, why would he care about the future when he will be gone if they don’t win now? Trade them all!
so true
no way. that would be too confusing with 40 rounds.
If they planning to close 30-40 minor league clubs… I doubt the draft will still go into 40.
I thought part of the proposal for cutting down the number of minor league teams was also to limit the draft to something like 20 rounds.
Yup, MLB is being way shortsighted on this. It’ll never be the NFL, or even close really, but if a tanking team like SF, for example, had 10 picks in the top-40, they’d get a lot more viewership.
And it would probably help in the regular season. It would grease a lot of trades at the deadline. If the RS are in it, and want Hand, for example, Casas +++ isn’t doing it.
So much upheaval for so few players. I’d dump the entire system.
And so complicated. Completely unfettered Free Agency is the only type the MLBPA should accept with the new CBA.
Only way they get that is if owners get a salary cap. Neither is happening.
STRIKE
No Strike = Players lose more
Strike = Players Gain Big
More like strike = everyone loses. I think both sides will find middle ground rather than face mutually assured destruction.
I doubt baseball can come back from another strike.
That’s what people said in 94 so shortly after the 81 stoppage. Fact is a lot of fans weren’t alive in 94 and while I tend to agree with your sentiment that it would really sour fans like myself who remember 94 well, baseball is strong enough to survive it again.
Baseball will survive any stoppage simply because #1. The passion of all us fans, baseball is in our DNA, we will always watch when it is played. #2. There is too much money tied up currently, and to be made for everyone involved and the cities for it to ever really fail.
Baseball can survive anything, the only question is how long the stoppage would be, and if it can truly grow any further..
Competitive balance picks should go to the teams with the worst records from the year before, not just the teams who perpetually cry poor (or the Cardinals).
Cards are really in the sweet spot. enough money to spend, but small enough revenue to get revenue sharing.
Cardinals don’t get revenue sharing.
Your opinion is wrong. The teams with the worst records are the best compensated in the draft. They get, by far, the most valuable picks. The difference between the top five picks in the draft and picks in the 40s and 70s is huge. They don’t need to help teams with bad records more (via the draft).
Competitive Balance picks are about helping small market teams, successful or not, keep up with big market teams. The Rays are a perfect example. They do well, generally will not have a top draft pick because of their record, but are forced to play against the Red Sox and Yankees, who have massive budgets. The Ray’s would rather have an extra $100 million a year to spend on their payroll than one draft pick after the first or second round. It helps some but not that much.
Not only that, but by having a larger bonus pool from which to deal with, a smart GM can turn that to their advantage even further. For example, what the Braves did when they drafted Anderson, Muller, Wentz, and Wilson..
Crazy thought but the Giants are going to have five draft picks before the Astros have their first.
not really win you cheat
Caveman no like cheat
4
The Astros also lost the slot money for those two draft picks, right? It would be silly if they still had the ability to utilize it on later round picks.
You only received slot money for the picks you have so yes they lost that money
They would lose that money as well if they’re not able to sign that pick, so yeah, no player to sign no slot money allowance
“[B]eing so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.]”
This is one of the most outlandish things I have ever read on here. If worded differently it could have made sense. As is.. well the author should try calling some people in the Atlanta FO and ask if a million dollars in international money is a big deal to them or not. Lol just come on.
Compared to a year without penalties it really isn’t much, just saying..Especially when you consider what they got in Ozuna and Smith..
They really weren’t going to be players in the Int’l market anyways, so it really isn’t THAT big of a loss
@snotrocket Corry looked really good last year. This is a big year for him, but I agree I’d like to see is grab a pitcher with our first round pick (unless there’s some talented position player we’d be foolish to let slip by).
SF should pull something together from this, it’s about doing the research and making those picks count, 5 is a lot
terrible system
But it is better than the previous system, the changes have made it at least a little better..So there is that..lol
MLB draft is highly overrated. A lot of the first and second round prospects don’t even pan out. It is in the middle and lower rounds were you seem to find the “diamond in the rough” player/players.
Tell that to the 66% of first rounders playing. They may not reach the levels of superstars, but still making the show has tremendous value.
Or course you don’t find diamonds in the rough in the first two rounds. You find the majority of solid players – the ones that make it to the majors in one way or another.
A diamond in the rough, by definition, is someone who you don’t have high expectations of and exceeds despite it. Of course you find those in later rounds.
The MLB amateur draft has to be a nightmare for GMs, scouts, and teams in general..
Think about how many 1st round busts you have in basketball, and there are only TWO ROUNDS!!
Not only that, you also have an absurdly large pool to choose from in HS seniors, JuCo players, and College players..
How is it the cheaten!! Astros will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft???
Such b.s….. The Astros with the lowest compensation for the best FA loss on the market… Manfred and MLB are massive hypocrites.
The order of the comp picks is based on previous years standings. If the Astros wanted a higher comp pick, they should have lost more games.
the entire idea was to help small market teams and keep big market teams form dominating the market. so in reality them having a pick at all defeats the system
Hopefully the next CBA eliminates the qualifying offer all together.
It’s easily solved if you get draft comp, but no draft penalty. Or have the FAs ranked, so that only those > $200M contracts get penalized. They are always big market teams anyway.
Everyone wants to bash the system, but it really works pretty well as of now..
Then again, idk, the NFL doesn’t have a comp system, and they have an extreme amount of parity…If you truly want that, then you have to have a salary cap..Its either that, or something that will always be marginally flawed..
As of now though, I think this is pretty decent..
The NFL has lucrative national TV contracts; as well as only a handful of home games, which means games tend to sell out. That means there is rough revenue parity as well. Plus, contracts are mostly non-guaranteed, which means teams don’t get into huge holes due to bad contracts. The NFL system works, but it works as an entire system, not just due to one factor. In contrast, there’s the NBA, where half the contracts become tragic, franchising-altering errors. Baseball is sort of mid-way between those in terms of success.
Not sure if the comp system you mention is the FA loss compensation or the small market scheme, but the article is based on the FA losses so I will assume that.
The NFL most definitely does has a system for compensating for FA losses. They award award picks based on the number and level of free agents lost.
As for competitive balancing, as mentioned earlier, the significant tv revenues and the hard cap tend to create more parity than any pick scheme would.
I thought Ryu was QO’d and Jays lost a pick for him? That’s pretty sweet that they didn’t
I thought Ryu was QO’d and Jays lost a pick for him? That’s pretty sweet that they didn’t
Ryu was QO’d last season and he accepted. A guy can only be QO’d once. LA would have QO’d him if they could have.
Cool article, nice to know the twins added Donaldson and kept their top 3 picks this draft. Big win there.
Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player,
———————————————————
That might’ve cost the an extra 3-4 fringy top-100 types.
This is an incorrect, and oft-repeated narrative. As the article states:
“Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.”
Zaidi isn’t stupid, and the belief that he passed up on 3-4 top 100 types would make him so. I wish it were made public exactly what was offered so we could put this ridiculous assertion to bed for good.
Odorizzi has to be kicking himself for taking the QO. It’s still a nice payout for one year, but there’s not a whole lot of difference between himself and Wheeler and we all saw how much Wheeler got. In truth, I’d maybe give the edge to Odorizzi.