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Padres, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75MM in 2025. That’s $5.75MM more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7MM salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and  Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.

The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounceback for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up, and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.

In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper – to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5% whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP, and xERA, while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75MM salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.

As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.”

The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169MM total and this year’s current estimate of $208MM (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75MM salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradeable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75MM deal.

Mariners, Randy Arozarena Avoid Arbitration

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The Mariners have avoided arbitration with Randy Arozarena, as first reported by Francys Romero. The left fielder will earn $11.3MM in 2025, slightly less than his projected $11.7MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). He will be eligible for arbitration once more ahead of the 2026 campaign.

Arozarena, 30 in February, is coming off the least productive season of his MLB career. Entering the 2024 campaign, the former AL Rookie of the Year had a career .802 OPS and 127 wRC+ in just over 2000 trips to the plate. In 2024, his OPS dropped to a career-worst .720, while his wRC+ fell to a career-worst 114. Those are still above-average numbers, to be clear, but a step back from his All-Star-caliber performances of the past.

On the bright side, Arozarena hit significantly better after a deadline trade from the Rays to the Mariners, raising his wRC+ from 109 to 122. Interestingly, the biggest difference between his numbers with Tampa Bay and Seattle was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He actually struck out more often and hit for less power with the Mariners, but his BABIP increased from .249 to .323. That could be good news for Arozarena, who came into the year with a career .331 BABIP, far higher than his overall .275 BABIP in 2024. If more of his batted balls drop for hits in 2025, he could get back to being a far more productive hitter once again.

Even in a down year, Arozarena hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases, achieving his fourth straight 20/20 season. He also ranked among the top five qualified AL batters with an 11.3% walk rate. On top of that, he reached 600 plate appearances for the fourth year in a row. Since his debut in 2019, his only two stints on the injured list have been due to COVID-19 protocols. An outfielder who can play every day while offering a rare combination of power, speed, and plate discipline is a valuable player indeed; he’d command far more than $11.3MM on the open market. He will certainly be valuable to the Mariners, who need as much offense as they can get. Seattle’s pitching staff is among the best in the league, but the bats failed to support the arms last season. That’s precisely why the M’s brought Arozarena in at the deadline. They’ll be counting on him to continue producing at the plate in 2025.

Padres, Luis Arraez Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Arraez will earn $14MM in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. A $14MM payday represents a nice raise for the infielder, who made $10.6MM in 2024, though it’s slightly less than his projected $14.6MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

The Padres acquired Arraez in a trade with the Marlins last May. Although he represented San Diego at the All-Star Game this past summer and finished the season with an NL-best .314 batting average, the 2024 season was a down year for Arraez. His .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ were well below his .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022-23. In addition, his defensive numbers were worse than ever. He managed to accrue -3 DRS and -6 OAA at first base and -3 DRS and -7 OAA and second base. Thus, the Padres ended up using him as their DH a good amount of the time, which only further decreased his overall value.

If Arraez can shore up his defense and get back to hitting like he did in 2022 and ’23, he will still be a bargain for San Diego at a $14MM salary. However, the Padres are thought to be trying to cut payroll this winter. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll for the 2025 season is $39MM higher than their final payroll at the end of 2024. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is reportedly trying to bring the payroll down to somewhere in between its current projected figure and last year’s final tally. If Preller plans to reduce payroll and still make any additions this winter, he will almost certainly have to trade some of his more expensive veterans. Thus, Arraez’s name has popped up in trade rumors.

About a month ago, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres had engaged in internal discussions about trading Arraez. It’s not hard to see why. His contract is more tradeable than the longer-term deals belonging to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts,  Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, or Yu Darvish. Dylan Cease surely has more trade value than Arraez, but for the same reasons, the Padres might be more likely to want to keep him around. Cease is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration, a similar number to Arraez’s $14MM salary. So, trading Cease would free up a similar amount of payroll as trading Arraez, but it would mean giving up a far more productive player.

Yet, the only team to be formally linked to Arraez this winter is the Yankees, and it’s unclear how interested New York really is. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino have pushed back on that connection. Martino reports that the Yankees “briefly” checked in on Arraez in November and “have not engaged with the Padres” on the subject since.

To further complicate matters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is now reporting that the Padres “plan to keep” Arraez after all. That’s somewhat surprising if the team is still serious about trimming payroll, but perhaps the Padres decided teams around the league were undervaluing Arraez after his down year in 2024. That might be the right decision. After all, if he can get back to being the hitter he was from 2022-23, the Padres would have a hard time replacing that kind of production for less than $14MM.

Oswaldo Cabrera Drawing Trade Interest

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As the Yankees’ roster currently stands, Oswaldo Cabrera might be the most likely option to be the team’s regular third baseman in 2025. He has appeared in 92 career games at the hot corner, more than anywhere else on the diamond, and has put up excellent defensive metrics in that small sample of playing time. In 706 2/3 innings, he has 9 Defensive Runs Saves, 4 Outs Above Average, and a +3 Fielding Run Value. However, Cabrera has struggled to make the same kind of impact at the plate throughout his brief big league tenure. In 827 plate appearances from 2022-24, he has a .643 OPS and an 80 wRC+. Thus, FanGraphs estimates he has only been worth 1.3 Wins Above Replacement in 268 career games.

With all that in mind, it’s no surprise the Yankees are pursuing infield upgrades. For instance, they have recently been linked to players like Jorge Polanco, Brendan Rodgers, and Luis Arraez. If New York were to add any of those players – or a different second or third baseman – Cabrera would be the odd man out in the starting lineup. That would relegate him to a bench role once again in his age-26 season. So, it makes sense that multiple teams have reportedly spoken with the Yankees about Cabrera’s availability in a trade this winter (per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic). A rebuilding club or a contender with less infield depth might have more playing time to offer Cabrera in 2025 and therefore might value him more highly than the Yankees. What’s more, the market for lower-tier infielders is thin right now. Plenty of teams might prefer to take a chance on Cabrera’s upside than sign a known (and aging) entity like Enrique Hernández or Whit Merrifield. Cabrera is still young, still has room for growth, and won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2026.

That being said, Kuty also mentions that the Yankees “don’t seem likely” to trade Cabrera. After all, he could be their most valuable utility player this year. He’s a safer bet than the declining DJ LeMahieu and more of a proven major leaguer than former top prospect Oswald Peraza or current prospect Jorbit Vivas. What’s more, Cabrera can also play the outfield corners. He only played a handful of games in the outfield last season, but he has close to 900 innings of left and right field experience under his belt. That’s the kind of versatile bench player the Yankees could use even if/when they add another starting infielder. Indeed, this team should certainly understand the importance of position player depth. Thanks to his flexibility and good health, Cabrera has taken the field in 224 games over the last two seasons. Only two current Yankees have played more games for the team in that time: Anthony Volpe and Aaron Judge.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Red Sox have already signed two free agent relievers to major league deals this offseason: veteran closer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Justin Wilson. What’s more, Liam Hendriks, another star closer, should be back in the ’pen after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. Still, Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the bullpen as an area he’s looking to further improve. It makes sense; Red Sox relievers ranked 24th in ERA and 20th in SIERA last season, while finishing with the second-most blown saves in the AL – and that was before losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

The Opener: Arbitration Filing Deadline, Rooker, White Sox

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Here are three things we’ll be paying attention to around baseball this Thursday:

1. Arbitration filing deadline:

By noon CT this afternoon, all arbitration-eligible players must either agree on a contract for the 2025 season or both player and team must file for arbitration. The deadline for both sides to submit arbitration figures is later this evening at 7:00 PM CT. That means you can expect a significant number of players to sign their deals for the upcoming season today. While teams and players can continue negotiations after the filing deadline, many teams take what is known as a “file-and-trial” approach. In other words, they shut down contract discussions after the filing deadline and take all undecided cases to arbitration hearings.

You can find every arbitration-eligible player’s projected salary (from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) here.

2. Brent Rooker press conference:

After officially announcing Brent Rooker’s five-year, $60MM contract extension on Wednesday, the Athletics will hold a press conference to discuss the move today in Sacramento (per Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). Rooker, 30, is coming off of a phenomenal year for the A’s. He ranked fifth in the American League in home runs, third in RBIs, and sixth among qualified AL batters in OPS and wRC+. At season’s end, he was awarded the AL Silver Slugger at DH and finished 10th in AL MVP voting. With the A’s forced to increase payroll this winter, it makes perfect sense they chose to extend their best hitter on a deal that buys out all three of his arbitration seasons and at least two free agent years.

3. Another 40-man move incoming from the White Sox:

The White Sox have already made a handful of 40-man roster moves in the past few weeks, such as DFAing Corey Julks, Braden Shewmake, and Jacob Amaya to make room for Cam Booser, Tyler Gilbert, and Josh Rojas, respectively. Soon, Chicago will have to make another transaction before finalizing the team’s biggest (relatively speaking) offseason addition yet: Martín Pérez.

The veteran starting pitcher agreed to a one-year, $5MM contract with the White Sox on Wednesday. Before officially announcing the deal, the club must open a space for Pérez on the 40-man roster. The last several players the White Sox have DFA’d have all been position players, making it increasingly likely they will part with a pitcher to add the southpaw Pérez.

Braves Sign Eddy Alvarez To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed infielder Eddy Alvarez to a minor league contract, as reflected on his transaction log at MLB.com. Alvarez, 35 at the end of the month, joins his seventh organization for what will be his 12th professional season.

After seven years in the minor leagues with the White Sox and Marlins, Alvarez made his big league debut for Miami in 2020. He has since appeared in 63 MLB games for the Marlins, Dodgers, and Mets between 2020-24, slashing .170/.257/.244 with one home run and four stolen bases. Primarily an infielder with experience at second base, third base, and shortstop, he also played a handful of games in the outfield with the Dodgers in 2022.

In between his MLB stints with the Dodgers and Mets, Alvarez played in the Brewers (2023) and Red Sox (2023-24) farm systems. He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers ahead of the 2023 season, and despite a strong performance at Triple-A, Milwaukee never called him up, prompting him to opt out of his contract in July. He quickly signed a new minor league pact with the Red Sox, only to suffer a season-ending injury after just one game at Triple-A Worcester.

Alvarez’s 2024 campaign with Worcester was more successful, and although he never earned a promotion to the Red Sox, he played well enough to catch the Mets’ eye in September. New York acquired him from Boston for cash and selected his contract the following day. His appearance for the Mets as a pinch-runner on September 9 marked his first MLB action in more than two years. He ended up sticking on the big league roster for the rest of the regular season, although he was ineligible for postseason play because he joined the organization in September.

Alvarez will now look to return to the majors with the Braves in 2025. His chances of cracking the Opening Day roster are slim, but considering Atlanta’s lack of infield depth, he certainly has a shot to join the active roster at some point if he performs well enough at Triple-A.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Jorge Polanco

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The Yankees have filled most of their biggest holes this winter, adding a closer (Devin Williams), a frontline starting pitcher (Max Fried), an outfielder (Cody Bellinger), and a first baseman (Paul Goldschmidt). Nonetheless, general manager Brian Cashman still has work to do. For one thing, New York could use a replacement for long-time middle infield stalwart Gleyber Torres, who signed with the Tigers in December. Notably, the Yankees did not make an effort to re-sign Torres after he became a free agent. However, they have been linked to various other infielders this offseason, including free agent Brendan Rodgers and trade candidate Luis Arraez. Most recently, Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post identified Jorge Polanco as another potential target. The Yankees have reportedly “checked in” on Polanco, who is a free agent for the first time in his career.

After spending the first 10 seasons of his big league tenure with the Twins, Polanco suited up for the Mariners in 2024. He played all of his defensive innings at second base. The 31-year-old was once a shortstop and has some experience at third base, but the keystone has been his primary home for the past four seasons. Presumably, that’s where the Yankees would be interested in having him play. Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s flexibility allows New York to pursue an upgrade at either second or third base, with Chisholm covering whichever position is left. Considering Polanco’s limited experience at the hot corner (24 games, 180.0 innings), it would seem to make the most sense to keep Chisholm at third.

Whichever team ultimately signs Polanco will be betting on him as a bounce-back candidate for 2025. From 2021-23, the switch-hitter was one of the better offensive second basemen in the game. Over 336 games, he hit 63 home runs with a .796 OPS and a 120 wRC+. His wRC+ was at least 19% better than the average second baseman’s in all three seasons. However, Polanco’s strong bat disappeared in 2024. His .651 OPS and 92 wRC+ were below average, even considering the lower offensive standards at second base. To make matters worse, his defense – which has never been his strong suit – was worse than ever. With -1 DRS, -10 OAA, -8 FRV, and -3.7 DRP, he either tied or sunk beneath his career lows in all four metrics.

For what it’s worth, Polanco spent time on the IL with a right hamstring injury in May and June and reportedly played through a left knee injury for much of the season. He had surgery on his knee this offseason and is expected to be ready for spring training. Perhaps a healthier Polanco will be able to hit more like his old self. To that point, ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested the injury had a particular effect on the switch-hitter’s performance as a lefty batter. Polanco’s 94 wRC+ as a righty batter in 2024 was right in line with his career average of 95. On the flip side, his 91 wRC+ as a lefty batter in 2024 was significantly worse than his career 115 wRC+ from the left side.

Even at full strength, Polanco doesn’t offer quite as much upside as Torres. However, it’s not far-fetched to think Polanco could replace the offensive production the Yankees got out of Torres in 2024. This past season was also a down year for the younger infielder. Over 154 games, he hit for a .709 OPS and 104 wRC+. Funnily enough, those numbers are almost right in the middle of what Polanco produced in 2023 and ’24. He might not be the most exciting infielder the Bronx Bombers have been connected to this winter, but if the veteran can split the difference between his past two seasons, he’ll help the Yankees make up for what they lost.

Dodgers Sign Hyeseong Kim

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With hours left to go before his posting window closes, Hyeseong Kim and the Dodgers signed a three-year contract worth $12.5MM. The deal includes a two-year club option (which would need to be exercised together) covering the 2028-29 seasons. If the Dodgers exercise the option, they’d pay an additional $9.5MM over those two years. Los Angeles designated catcher Diego Cartaya for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot. Kim is represented by CAA Sports.

Kim’s former team, the Kiwoom Heroes, officially posted him on December 5, giving him until 4:00 PM CT this afternoon to sign with an MLB club. As the days ticked by and the rumor mill remained relatively quiet, it seemed like a legitimate possibility that Kim would return for one more season with the Heroes. Instead, the Dodgers, who hadn’t been closely linked to Kim this winter, swooped in and made a winning offer in the nick of time. In addition to Kim’s salary, the Dodgers will have to pay a $2.5MM release fee to the Heroes (20% of the guaranteed $12.5MM on his deal). Their total investment is $15MM.

Kim, soon to be 26, is a four-time consecutive winner of the KBO Golden Glove Award, given annually to the best overall player at each position. He won the award at shortstop in 2021 before moving to second base and winning each year from 2022-24. In addition to playing a strong second base and at least a capable shortstop, Kim is also an asset on the basepaths. He led the KBO in stolen bases in 2021 and has swiped at least 20 bags in all seven full seasons of his career. His glove and legs should give him a relatively high floor as a utility player in MLB, if nothing more.

The big question is how Kim’s bat will hold up against MLB pitching. While he struggled at the plate early in his career, the lefty batter blossomed into a well-above-average hitter during his last three years in the KBO. From 2022-24, he produced a .326 batting average and a .384 OBP, while his wRC+ was never below 118 in any season. However, Kim has never hit for much power, even by the slightly lower power standards of the KBO. His 2024 season was the best of his career power-wise – he reached double-digit home runs for the first time – but his .132 isolated power was still below league average.  Thus, it’s fair to worry that Kim might not have the necessary power to be an everyday player in MLB. Just look at his former KBO teammate Ha-Seong Kim. Ha-Seong Kim was a genuine power threat in the KBO, socking 30 homers in 138 games during his final season in Korea. Since coming to MLB, he has become known as a soft-hitting contact specialist. His career .137 ISO in MLB is 15% worse than the league average over the last four years.

When MLBTR ranked Hyseong Kim at no. 26 on our Top 50 Free Agents list, we predicted he’d sign a three-year, $24MM contract. His actual deal guarantees him a little more than half of that predicted salary. That said, it’s worth mentioning that Kim reportedly turned down more money from at least one other team. A representative from Kim’s agency, CAA Baseball, told a Korean media outlet (passed along by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) that the Angels offered him a five-year, $28MM deal, while the Mariners, Cubs, and Padres also made offers with undisclosed terms. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register contradicts that report. According to Fletcher, the Angels made an offer to Kim but did not top what he received from the Dodgers.

To that point, Kim might not have a guaranteed starting role in L.A. The Dodgers already have Gavin Lux to play second base, Mookie Betts at shortstop, and Max Muncy holding down the hot corner. Furthermore, they have the talented defensive shortstop Miguel Rojas and the versatile Chris Taylor on the bench. Center fielder Tommy Edman can also play all around the infield.

According to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, Kim will play a “super-utility role” in 2025. The use of the prefix “super” seems to imply that he’ll be playing several positions. While he has significant experience at both shortstop and second base, he has only played a handful of games at third base in his professional career. He also played 44 games in left field during the 2020 season, and it will be interesting to see if the Dodgers consider using him in the outfield at all. As a “super-utility” player, Kim will presumably have a bigger role than that of a typical bench bat, but with so much competition on the Dodgers’ talent-filled roster, he’ll have to earn his playing time.

The fact that the Dodgers signed Kim despite already having so many infielders is evidence of how much this team values depth and flexibility. It’s also a sign of how much they value what Kim can bring to the table. Funnily enough, manager Dave Roberts has already made his team’s affinity for Kim quite clear. After the Dodgers played an exhibition match against the Korean national team last March, Roberts told reporters (including Yoo), “Our scouts like the second baseman: just the way his body moves.” That second baseman, of course, was Kim.

Various reports out of South Korea were first with the news that Kim was signing with Los Angeles on a three-year deal with a two-year club option. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report the $12.5MM guarantee and the $22MM maximum value.

Mets Notes: Manaea Contract Details, Alonso

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After previously reporting that Sean Manaea’s deal with the Mets would include $23.25MM in deferred payments, Will Sammon of The Athletic offered more details on the structure of Manaea’s contract this morning.

Manaea will earn equal $25MM salaries in all three years of the deal, adding up to the reported total guarantee of $75MM. However, $7.75MM of his salary will be deferred without interest each season, adding up to the reported total of $23.25MM in deferrals. As Sammon previously mentioned, the deferrals will be paid out in equal portions over 10 years from 2035-44. Sammon also notes that Manaea can earn standard additional incentives for making an All-Star appearance ($50K), winning a Gold Glove ($50K), winning LCS MVP ($50K), winning World Series MVP ($100K), and finishing top-three in Cy Young voting ($50K for first place, $25K for second place, $10K for third place).

The deferred payments mean that Manaea’s contract isn’t quite worth $75MM in present-day value. Therefore, the luxury tax hit for the Mets won’t be quite as high as his $25MM AAV. Jon Becker of FanGraphs suggests the present-day value of his AAV for luxury tax purposes is just over $22MM. That’s not entirely insignificant to the Mets, who will be paying the luxury tax once again in 2025. It’s also interesting that Manaea’s contract is about $1MM less valuable than the three-year, $67MM deal his former teammate Luis Severino signed with the Athletics. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week that Manaea turned down that same offer from the A’s before they gave it to Severino instead. Of course, it’s not hard to understand why Manaea would rather pitch for the Mets than the A’s, but it’s interesting that he technically took a discount to re-sign with New York.

In another Mets update, Sammon theorizes that “contract length” is currently what’s holding up a deal between the Mets and Pete Alonso. Heyman recently made a similar suggestion, saying “I do think the years are the hang-up right now” (per Jon Heyman’s Insider Notebook on Bleacher Report). Back in December, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Mets were still “pushing hard” to reunite with Alonso. From Alonso’s perspective, it’s hard to picture a better fit than the only team he’s ever known. Yet, a deal hasn’t come together. A disagreement over contract length could certainly explain why.

Presumably, Alonso and his agent Scott Boras are still looking to beat the guaranteed money from the seven-year, $158MM extension he reportedly turned down from the Mets in the summer of 2023. To do so, he’d need to sign for at least $137.5MM this winter (he already earned the first $20.5MM in 2024 during his final year of arbitration). It’s hard to imagine Alonso approaching that number on anything shorter than a six-year contract. Meanwhile, it’s not hard to understand why teams would balk at offering a six-year contract to a 30-year-old first baseman coming off two consecutive down years.

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