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East Notes: Nationals, Ciolek, Orioles, Phillies, Rays

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The Nationals have hired Brad Ciolek as their new senior director of amateur scouting, as initially reported by The Athletic’s Keith Law (X link).  Andrew Golden of the Washington Post was the first to report Ciolek’s specific new title, and he’ll work under another new hire in scouting director Danny Haas.  Both Hass and Ciolek worked together in the Orioles’ front office from 2012-19, with Ciolek only just leaving Baltimore after acting as the director of draft operations.

The Talk Nats blog also reported that amateur scout Reed Dunn is close to joining the organization, and Ciolek and Dunn are just two of several new hires within a significantly reshaped player development system.  President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has been looking to upgrade how the Nationals identify and develop young talent, as the latest step in the team’s rebuilding process.  D.C. made some progress with the big league roster in 2023, but with contention still probably at least one more years away, figuring out how to add more quality prospects to the pipeline is of major importance.  Ciolek has plenty of experience on this front, as he contributed to the Orioles’ own rebuild, and the deep core of prospects that now has the O’s in great shape to contend for the next decade.

More from around the NL and AL East divisions…

  • Advancing to the NLDS means that the Phillies will now need a fourth starter, and Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez are set to throw simulated games on Sunday to ramp up their arms for the possible assignment, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes.  Neither pitcher saw any action in the first two playoff rounds, and neither has pitched since September 30, hence the need for some extra warm-up.  Gelb figures Walker might get the official start in Game 4 since Walker has rarely ever worked as a reliever during his career, though both Walker and Sanchez could get some action during the game, perhaps in a piggyback capacity.  The Phillies haven’t yet announced their starters for the first three games, though it is expected to be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez, probably in that order.
  • The Rays announced a series of internal promotions and role changes within their organization on Friday.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the full list, led by Blake Butera becoming the new senior director of player development.  Just 31 years old, Butera will now oversee the Rays’ vaunted player development system just seven years after he was in the farm system himself as a 35th-round pick for Tampa Bay in the 2015 draft.  After ending his playing career, Butera spent five years in the minors as a coach and manager in the Rays’ system, then worked as an assistant field coordinator in 2023.

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT.  Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment.  With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM

Option Decisions

  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall.  Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays.  Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.

It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023.  The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.

Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons.  Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.

The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race.  As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep.  The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.

Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems.  One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement.  However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere.  Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024.  Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022.  Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors.  From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.

With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal.  The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.

Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed.  For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base.  In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off.  Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.

(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention.  As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)

Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base.  Davis Schneider’s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training.  Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.

Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles.  Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing.  By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.

The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular.  Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.

That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line).  With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.

Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out.  Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option.  Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate.  It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.

Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup.  Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong.  The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.

If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out.  Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer.  If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.

Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024.  The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.

Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim.  But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation.  Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year.  For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.

Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters.  The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.

Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign.  Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all.  If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade.  Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.

Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones.  Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought.  To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?

It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere.  Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers.  Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.

As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip?  It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base.  But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable.  Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.

For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.  It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.

Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.”  How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.

Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on.  With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.

Giants, Athletics Discussed Offseason Trade Involving Sean Murphy, Marco Luciano

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The Giants and Athletics usually don’t combine for many trades, but the two Bay Area rivals got deep into talks about a possible blockbuster last winter, according to Tim Kawakami and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.  Kawakami reported back in July that the two teams “apparently were closing in on a deal” that would’ve involved Sean Murphy heading to the Giants, and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano going to the A’s.  In a piece today, Baggarly reports that San Francisco was willing to move Luciano, but talks fell apart when the Athletics asked for pitching prospect Kyle Harrison as part of the deal.

The specifics of the trade proposal or any other players involved isn’t known, nor is it known if the A’s wanted Harrison instead of Luciano as the centerpiece of a trade package, or wanted both Harrison and Luciano in the deal.  The former scenario seems likelier, as the Giants probably would’ve walked away a lot earlier had Oakland demanded both of San Francisco’s top prospects.

Oakland instead dealt Murphy as part of one of the offseason’s biggest trades — a three-team, nine-player deal between the A’s, Braves, and Brewers that saw Murphy go to Atlanta and William Contreras to Milwaukee.  Murphy lived up to expectations in his first year in Atlanta, making the All-Star team and hitting .251/.365/.478 with 21 homers over 438 plate appearances.  The Brewers were also big winners in the trade, since not only did Contreras shine offensively while making big strides with his glovework, reliever Joel Payamps suddenly emerged as a top-tier setup man.  The A’s bought some new young talent on board in their latest rebuild, most prominently the addition of American League stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz.

Beyond the incredible speed, however, Ruiz’s overall offensive profile is still a little shaky, making him less than a true cornerstone piece for the Athletics.  Some criticism has been leveled at the A’s front office for their returns on the trades of Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and others during this latest fire sale, with the most common argument being that the Athletics seemed to aim for quantity over true top-drawer quality.  Though we don’t know the exact nature of the deal the A’s and Giants were proposing, the inclusion of Luciano (or Harrison) would’ve brought one clear-cut top prospect to Oakland’s organization.

The three-team trade had such an immediate impact on the 2023 season that it would’ve created quite the ripple effect had Murphy instead ended up in San Francisco.  It can be argued that the Brewers might not have won the NL Central without Contreras carrying an otherwise shaky lineup, or without Payamps combining with closer Devin Williams to form a lockdown combo at the end of games.  Without those pieces in place, maybe the door is open for the Cubs or Reds to win the NL Central instead.

The Braves’ stacked lineup perhaps might not have missed a beat with Contreras instead of Murphy behind the plate, and Atlanta’s pursuit of Murphy was considered something of a surprise whatsoever since Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud were already in the fold.  That said, the Braves obviously felt they were getting an upgrade over the long term, considering they liked Murphy enough to almost immediately sign him to a six-year extension soon after the trade.  Such an extension might not have been on the table for Contreras.  While the Braves have a penchant for locking up their players, the fact that they dealt Contreras indicates some level of reservation, even if it might’ve been ultimately more a case of Atlanta particularly liking Murphy more than “disliking” Contreras, per se.

By that same dint, the Giants’ apparent willingness to move Luciano shouldn’t be an indication that the Giants are somehow down on the young shortstop.  In fact, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is heading into 2024 aiming to give Luciano at least “the chance“ to be the starting shortstop, underlining the 22-year-old Luciano’s importance to the organization as a building block.  Pundits have considered Luciano has been regarded as at least a top-37 prospect in each of the last four seasons, and he only just made his MLB debut this season, making 45 plate appearances in 14 games.

Dealing away a blue chip prospect like Luciano likely wouldn’t have been a possibility for the Giants at all if a unique trade opportunity (i.e. a controllable high-level catcher like Murphy) hadn’t been available.  The exact timing of the talks with the Athletics were also probably a factor, as the Giants might’ve been more willing to move Luciano if they’d thought Carlos Correa was joining the roster, yet Correa’s 13-year, $350MM agreement with San Francisco ended up falling through due to medical concerns on the Giants’ end.

Had the Giants acquired Murphy, they would’ve landed the signature star they were searching for without success last winter, after the Correa deal collapsed and after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees.  Perhaps adding Murphy might’ve been the spark San Francisco needed to get over the line in the wild card race, as in this alternate reality, the Giants have both Murphy and perhaps another MLB-caliber regular they received in a Patrick Bailey trade.  It is fair to wonder whether Bailey would’ve been shipped out in a world where Murphy is a Giant, instead of our world where Bailey emerged as a rookie and now looks like he’ll be San Francisco’s catcher of the present and future.

It makes for a fun cascade of what-if scenarios, and Bailey’s potential availability then stretches the web beyond just what might’ve happened with the Giants, A’s, Brewers, and Braves.  San Francisco fans may rue missing out on Murphy, though if Bailey continues to develop and Luciano lives up to the hype, the team might end up coming out ahead.

Max Scherzer “Ready To Go” For Rangers’ ALCS Roster

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It was exactly a month ago today that Max Scherzer’s season seemed to be over, when Rangers GM Chris Young told reporters that Scherzer was “unlikely” to be part of any postseason play due to a teres major strain.  However, Scherzer almost immediately started some level of light baseball activity, and has steadily ramped up his work to the point that he now looks to be on the verge of joining the Rangers for the start of the AL Championship Series.

Scherzer threw a 68-pitch simulated game on Wednesday, and told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) today that he threw another bullpen session and participated in fielding drills.  With all of this regular workload complete, Scherzer feels “I’ve pressed all the buttons I can.  I’m ready to go….I feel normal.  That’s all I can say.  All I can do is describe what I feel like and if I have an issue, I have to let them know.  But my arm feels fresher.”

The final verdict won’t come until Sunday when the Rangers officially submit their ALCS roster in advance of Game 1 against the Astros.  But, all signs point to Scherzer being in the mix, making for quite a boost for the Rangers in getting a future Hall-of-Famer added to the pitching staff.  Jordan Montgomery is the announced Game 1 starter, Nathan Eovaldi will very likely start Game 2, and Grant figures any of Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, or Dane Dunning could start Game 3.

It stands to reason that Scherzer might be face a relatively quick hook if he does start, to keep him from overtaxing his arm.  In that scenario, Scherzer could be part of a piggyback situation with Heaney, Dunning, or possibly Martin Perez.  Jon Gray is another possible X-factor for the series, as the righty has been working his way back from forearm tightness and could also be included on the ALCS roster.  The pitching plans will likely also hinge on how things play out for Texas in the first two games of the series, so the official Game 3 starter might not be known until after Game 2 is over on Monday.

Scherzer posted a 3.77 ERA over 152 2/3 innings with the Mets and Rangers during the regular season, which stands as one of the more unusual seasons of the ace’s 16-year MLB career.  A midseason trade surely didn’t seem on the radar for Scherzer on a Mets team that won 101 games last year, but after New York stumbled during the first half, the Mets opted to move multiple veterans at the trade deadline, including Scherzer to Texas in a blockbuster deal.

Latest On Giants’ Managerial Search

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The Giants interviewed third-base coach Mark Hallberg this week in regards to the manager’s job, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  Hallberg becomes the first candidate known to officially sit down for an interview, though several other internal candidates are also on the radar.  Bench coach and interim manager Kai Correa and longtime former third base coach Ron Wotus are expected to receive interviews, Slusser writes, and catching/bullpen coach Craig Albernaz could also be considered.  Albernaz has already been interviewed by the Guardians in regards to their own managerial vacancy.

Hallberg, however, “is emerging as the top in-house candidate” to replace the fired Gabe Kapler, Slusser notes.  The 37-year-old Hallberg has been part of San Francisco’s coaching staff for the last four seasons, moving from an assistant coach role to taking over from Wotus as third base coach prior to the 2022 campaign.  After playing five seasons in the Diamondbacks’ minor league system from 2007-11, Hallberg moved on to coaching at the high school level, and then for four seasons in the Cape Cod League.  He joined the Giants organization as a coach of their former lower-A affiliate in Salem-Keizer in 2018, and then managed the club in 2019.

If the Giants did hire Hallberg, he would be the club’s first (non-interim) first-time MLB manager since Dusty Baker got the job in 1993, though Baker obviously had a larger breadth of Major League experience from his long playing career and his coaching career before moving into the manager’s chair.  Considering the increasing impatience from Giants fans to see the team get back on the winning track, Hallberg would immediately face a lot of pressure, though Slusser notes that it could be a popular hire within the team since Hallberg is “well regarded by everyone in the organization.”

Correa and Wotus aren’t surprising names on the list of possibilities, and this would be the second time Wotus has interviewed for the manager’s job — the Giants spoke with Wotus during the 2019-20 offseason prior to hiring Kapler.  Wotus has spent the last 35 seasons in the San Francisco organization as a minor league player, then as a manager in the minor league system, and then an extended coaching stint that lasted from 1998-2021.  Nineteen of those seasons on staff were served as a bench coach, with Wotus acting as the right-hand man for managers Baker, Felipe Alou, and Bruce Bochy.  The 62-year-old Wotus has worked as an advisor within the Giants organization for the last two seasons.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said he hoped to have the team’s new manager hired before the free agent period fully opens, which occurs five days after the end of the World Series.  There haven’t been many public reports about external candidates who may or may not be of interest to the Giants or have spoken to the club already, but Slusser reports that Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker “is expected to be among the potential front-runners” as San Francisco’s next manager.

Ecker is a familiar face in the Bay Area, having worked as a hitting coach with the Giants in 2020-21.  Other teams with managerial vacancies (the Guardians, Mets, and Angels) might also have interest in speaking with Ecker, though the Rangers’ increasingly deep playoff run is a complication, as any interviews would have to be built into breaks in the postseason schedule.

Byron Buxton Undergoes Arthroscopic Knee Surgery; Alex Kirilloff To Undergo Labrum Surgery

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Now that the Twins’ season is over, surgery is in the cards for two prominent Minnesota players.  Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Byron Buxton under an arthroscopic right knee surgery today, and that Alex Kirilloff will undergo a procedure to fix his torn right labrum on October 24.

This is the second straight year that Buxton will have undergone an arthroscopic procedure on his troublesome right knee, though Falvey noted “this one wasn’t something that existed a year ago in terms of the evaluation and where things were.  This is one that developed more related to the patellar tendinitis that he was dealing with this year, and a potential path to help alleviate this.  In some cases, I’m sure this plica issue wouldn’t necessarily be surgically removed, but I think because he’s dealt with persistent symptoms, that’s a path.”

Buxton’s long injury history is well-documented, as is the fact that the former Gold Glover was entirely limited to DH duty in 2023 due to lingering discomfort in his right knee.  The experiment wasn’t too successful, as Buxton hit a modest .207/.294/.438 over 347 plate appearances in 85 games, and he didn’t play again in the regular season after August 1 due to a hamstring strain.  While rehabbing that hamstring injury, Buxton played seven innings of one minor league game in center field, but that seemed to again re-aggravate his knee issues.  He didn’t make it back to action at all until Game 4 of the ALDS, when Minnesota inserted Buxton onto the roster as an injury replacement for Kirilloff — Buxton had one at-bat as a pinch-hitter, popping out to first base in his only appearance during the Twins’ playoff run.

Unfortunately for Buxton, it doesn’t seem like this latest surgery will entirely correct what seems to be a chronic knee issue.  Falvey described today’s procedure as “hopefully…a step that gets us in a direction towards making sure it’s less of a problem going forward.  He’ll have to manage it.  We know that part.  But ultimately, hopefully we can manage it a little bit better going forward.”

In terms of timeline, Buxton will be able to start physical therapy within a few weeks’ time, and Falvey said the All-Star should be ready for the start of Spring Training.  If all goes well, Buxton should be able to return to center field in at least a part-time capacity in 2024, though naturally things are still very much up in the air given how Buxton’s knee (to say nothing of several other injuries) have plagued him throughout his career.  As a result, the center field position will remain a question mark for the Twins, since Michael A. Taylor is slated for free agency until Minnesota can work out an extension before the market fully opens five days after the end of the World Series.

Kirilloff is also no stranger to the surgical suite, after undergoing wrist procedures in each of the last two seasons.  Kirilloff hurt his right shoulder back in June while diving for a ball, and attempted to play through the pain before finally going onto the injured list for what ended up being around a six-week absence.

“I think if he had got through the first rehab and there was no soreness, and he got through the end of the year in an OK spot, it might not be a surgical procedure,” Falvey said, though unfortunately Kirilloff’s shoulder acted up against during the ALDS to force the situation.  Falvey noted that a recovery timeline won’t be known until the surgery actually happens, though Kirilloff expressed optimism yesterday when speaking with the media that it would be a relatively simple recovery.  Kirilloff throws with his left arm and not his right, so that should already cut back on the rehab required.

Poll: Who Will Win The League Championship Series?

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Two first-time postseason meetings will take place during the League Championship Series, with these fresh matchups underlining the upset-filled nature of the 2023 playoffs.  We could also be heading towards an entirely fresh World Series matchup as well, or potentially a rematch of last year’s Fall Classic.  The ALCS begins Sunday in Houston, with the NLCS getting underway on Monday in Philadelphia.

Rangers vs. Astros

Amidst all of the postseason’s unpredictability, the Astros remain the constant.  Houston is in the ALCS for the seventh consecutive year, with two World Series titles (2017 and last season) and two other AL pennants to show for this incredible run of success.  The Astros know what to do in October, and their ALDS victory over the Twins also saw a player without a championship ring suddenly step up, as Jose Abreu hit three homers over the four-game series.  The regular season was a disappointment for Abreu, but if he has suddenly locked in and found his old White Sox form, Houston’s lineup will look even more imposing.

Then again, the Rangers can roll out an awfully imposing group of hitters themselves.  Texas is a perfect 5-0 over its series triumphs over the Rays and Orioles, in part because Corey Seager and the rookie duo of Evan Carter and Josh Jung have been almost impossible to get out.  The Texas rotation and bullpen will inevitably have question marks, yet their arms have gotten the job done thus far, with a 2.25 ERA over 45 postseason innings.  Plus, the pitching staff might get even stronger with the expected return of Max Scherzer in some capacity for the ALCS.

There is already a fierce rivalry between these two Lone Star State rivals, as the Rangers’ return to prominence will now face a critical test against the benchmark that is the Astros.  Though the Rangers led the AL West for most of the season, the Astros slipped ahead to clinch the division on a tiebreaker — both clubs finished with a 90-72 record, but Houston held a comfortably 9-4 advantage in head-to-head play.

Justin Verlander has been announced as Houston’s starter for Game 1, and Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas.  Both pitchers were acquired at the trade deadline, though naturally Verlander already has a long history in an Astros uniform.

(poll link)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

The first season of the expanded playoffs saw the Phillies go from sixth seed to NL champions in 2022, and now a year later, the Phils find themselves as the favorites trying to hold off another sixth-seeded upstart.  Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks have yet to drop even a single game in these playoffs, after sweeping away the Brewers and the Dodgers over the first two rounds.  The Phillies (1.53, .892 OPS) and D’Backs (2.20, .877) lead all postseason teams in ERA and OPS, showing the well-rounded nature of both clubs’ performances thus far.

Star youngsters Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno have led the way for Arizona, and the rotation depth that plagued the D’Backs during the regular season hasn’t been an issue in the short-series environment of the postseason.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are a formidable pair of frontline arms, and rookie Brandon Pfaadt looked sharp in 4 1/3 shutout innings against Los Angeles in Game 3 of the NLDS.  Arizona also has an unusual bit of superstition on its side, in that every team to ever eliminate the Brewers from a postseason series has also won at least a league pennant.

While the underdog Diamondbacks have shown no fear during these playoffs, they’ll be facing a tough assignment in facing a tested Phillies team that has both a raucous home crowd and the home-field advantage.  Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto have been a four-man wrecking crew during the playoffs, combining for nine homers and 19 RBI over Philadelphia’s six games.  If there is one downside, it is that the rest of the Phillies’ lineup has been mostly quiet, though there is still plenty of talent that could emerge in a new series.

Arizona will start Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt over the first three NLDS games.  A well-rested Zack Wheeler is expected to start Game 1 for Philadelphia, with Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez probably lining up for the next two starts.

(poll link)

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/13/23

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The latest minor moves from around the sport…

  • The Angels have re-signed catcher Tyler Payne to a new minor league deal, according to Ari Alexander of KPRC TV in Houston (X link).  Payne first joined the Halos organization last June, hitting .313/.369/.472 over 157 plate appearances with Double-A Rocket City.  Prior to signing with the Angels, Payne (who turns 31 later this month) had spent his entire pro career in the Cubs’ farm system since Chicago made him a 30th-round selection in the 2015 draft.  That stint with the Cubs culminated in Payne’s lone Major League game, back in 2021.

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