Joe Musgrove Likely To Open Season On Injured List
A Padres club already thin on rotation depth delivered some rough news for fans Monday, as manager Craig Stammen revealed that righty Joe Musgrove is expected to open the season on the injured list (video link via 97.3 The Fan). Musgrove hasn’t thrown in more than a week. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that he didn’t recover as well as hoped following an exhibition start against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic club.
It’s an ominous update, though it’s worth noting that Stammen didn’t suggest there had been a setback of any note. Musgrove hasn’t pitched since the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery that cost him the entirety of the 2025 campaign.
“He’s most likely going to start on the IL this year,” Stammen said Monday morning. “We’re getting to the point where he’s taken enough time off that it’d be hard to ramp him up to get him to be a viable starter that could throw five innings, 90 pitches. … This was part of the plan. We knew he was going to have to take some time off. We knew we were going to have get him ready for the entire season and not just Opening Day.”
Getting a healthy Musgrove back in the fold will be key to the Padres’ chances at contending this season. San Diego’s rotation depth has thinned over the past year. Yu Darvish is injured and contemplating retirement. Dylan Cease became a free agent. Righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert were traded to the Royals last summer. Prospects Braden Nett and Henry Baez were sent to the Athletics as part of the Mason Miller trade.
A healthy Musgrove is arguably the Padres’ best pitcher. From 2021-24, the now-33-year-old righty gave his hometown club 559 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, fanning a sharp 25.5% of opponents against a terrific 6.1% walk rate. Musgrove doesn’t throw especially hard, sitting a bit north of 93 mph with his heater, but he has good command and induces both chases off the plate and swinging strikes at league-average or slightly better rates.
It’s always been fair to wonder how many innings the Padres can reasonably expect from Musgrove after a layoff of nearly 18 months. The uncertainty surrounding his workload is one of many pressing questions about San Diego’s starting staff.
The Padres now enter the year with Michael King (also coming off an injury-truncated season) and Nick Pivetta locked into spots. Randy Vásquez and free-agent pickup Germán Márquez are both likely to be in the starting five as well, though Márquez has been shelled this spring coming off his own worrying return from UCL surgery in Colorado. In 6 2/3 innings, he’s allowed nine runs on 10 hits and four walks. Vásquez posted a solid 3.84 ERA in 133 2/3 innings last season but did so with the third-worst strikeout rate (13.7%) of any pitcher in MLB (min. 100 innings pitched). Metrics like SIERA (5.43) and xFIP (5.51) both pegged him bottom-two in that same subset.
Options to fill out the rotation behind King, Pivetta, Vásquez and Márquez are fairly suspect. Left-hander JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t seemed to have the confidence of the organization since coming over alongside Miller in that aforementioned trade. The Friars gave him only five starts last year despite the fact that he’d been a staple in the Athletics’ rotation. He spent the rest of his time with the organization in Triple-A last summer, and Sears has had very rough spring (8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings). Righty Matt Waldron is also on the 40-man roster but is behind in camp and could start on the IL himself. San Diego also signed Griffin Canning in free agency, but he’s a lock to open on the IL as he finishes rehabbing last year’s ruptured Achilles tendon.
In all likelihood, the Padres will need to break camp with at least one non-roster invitee in the rotation (barring further additions). Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie are the most prominent names to have signed minor league deals this offseason. None of the three have pitched well this spring. Buehler is the only one who’s allowed fewer runs than innings pitched (four runs on seven hits and two walks with six strikeouts in 6 2/3 frames).
Given the lackluster options and the nature of their early schedule, the Padres may not even fill Musgrove’s rotation spot at all. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres could open the season with a four-man rotation. Acee calls King, Pivetta and Vásquez locks, adding that Buehler has “likely” earned a spot, while Márquez’s spring struggles have at least created some doubt about his ability to handle the job.
San Diego has a pair of off-days within the first eight days of the season. That’ll allow them to skip the fifth spot in the rotation twice in their first ten games. The Padres’ bullpen is among the deepest and most talented in the sport, too, so even when they finally do need a fifth starter, they could opt for a bullpen game while awaiting Musgrove to get into game shape. Someone like Márquez or Sears could open a bullpen game and perhaps navigate the opposing lineup once before turning over to the bullpen.
There’s no obvious answer in sight at the moment, which will make the final week-plus of camp worth watching with a careful eye. Each of Márquez, Sears, Buehler and Gonzales should have another appearance or two to try to stake a claim to the job, and ever-active president of baseball ops A.J. Preller could always try to creatively bring in another arm. One of the remaining free agents (e.g. Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin) probably wouldn’t have time to ramp up for the season, but there will be plenty of names hitting waivers or being granted their release from minor league deals over the final few days of camp.
How Will The Padres Round Out Their Rotation?
Barring injury, the Padres will open the season with an established top three in their rotation. Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove have the upside to be one of the best top halves in the National League.
Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery, while King was limited to 74 1/3 innings last year (playoffs included) by a nerve issue in his shoulder and left knee inflammation. They’re free of any restrictions this spring. Musgrove will make his exhibition debut tomorrow against Great Britain in a World Baseball Classic tune-up. King has already started two games this spring.
The picture is a lot less clear from there. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season. Free agent pickup Griffin Canning has yet to pitch this spring as he works back from last June’s Achilles tear. He’s very likely starting the season on the injured list.
That’s also true of knuckleballer Matt Waldron, though it could be close to a minimal IL stay for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote yesterday that Waldron plans to throw off a mound this week and is hopeful of getting a start in before the end of Cactus League play. He won’t be built up enough to start the season on the active roster, however. Waldron is out of options, so the Padres will need to carve out an MLB spot for him once he’s ready or risk losing him via trade or waivers.
That all but ensures that Randy Vásquez will get a season-opening rotation spot. Manager Craig Stammen said at the beginning of camp that the righty had a leg up on a job. Vásquez is out options and needed to make the team in some capacity. He outperformed mediocre peripherals for most of last season but improved his strikeout rate to a league average level in September. He finished last season with a 3.86 ERA across 133 2/3 innings.
It probably leaves the Padres will one spot to fill. The front office has taken a volume approach to the back of the roster, adding a handful of veterans on cheap one-year deals or minor league contracts to see who sticks. They added enough options that it’s not out of the question they open with a six-man rotation.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla left open that possibility over the weekend, although he implied they preferred a five-man group (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Niebla said the team is preparing the starters on a usual five-day routine. If multiple depth arms pitch their way onto the roster, they could go to a six-man staff, but that requires dropping to a seven-man bullpen.
If there’s only one spot available, Germán Márquez enters camp as the favorite. The former Rockies righty signed a $1.75MM deal in mid-February. His spot on the MLB roster feels secure, which isn’t the case for non-roster invitees Walker Buehler or Marco Gonzales. Márquez could theoretically pitch in long relief if one of Buehler or Gonzales beats him for the fifth starter role. That scenario (or a six-man rotation) probably wouldn’t bode well for out-of-options reliever Ron Marinaccio’s bid to stick on the roster.
Lefty JP Sears is also in the rotation mix, though San Diego’s series of veteran additions means it’s likelier he’s headed back to Triple-A. Sears was hit hard in five MLB starts after being acquired from the A’s in the Mason Miller trade. He still has a minor league option remaining.
Sears also hasn’t an especially encouraging start to camp, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two homers) across 3 2/3 innings. Márquez allowed three runs on four hits over two innings in his exhibition debut over the weekend. Gonzales, who missed all of last season rehabbing flexor surgery, has given up five runs across 4 2/3 frames over two spring starts. Buehler hasn’t pitched in an official Spring Training game but took on the KBO’s NC Dinos in an outing on the back fields over the weekend, giving up two runs over three innings.
Padres Notes: Rotation, Vásquez, Campusano, Preller
The Padres have made no secret of their desire to add another starter and one more complementary bat before Opening Day. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller reiterated those goals from Spring Training (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).
There are still a handful of free agent starters who could make an impact (e.g. Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, Griffin Canning). San Diego seems to be working with tight payroll restrictions, however. That could point to a reclamation candidate like Walker Buehler or Germán Márquez if they address that via free agency.
Dennis Lin of The Athletic suggests the Padres could be more inclined to add a starter via trade. That’s easier said than done at this stage of the calendar. All but a handful of teams are entering the season with some hope of contending. Pitching injuries will pile up as exhibition games get underway and there’ll be fewer opportunities for those clubs to backfill the rotation if they trade a starter.
Speculatively, there could be a match with the rebuilding Nationals for a cheap sixth starter like Mitchell Parker or Jake Irvin — each of whom has been durable but pitched better in 2024 than they did a year ago. Andre Pallante falls into a similar category with the Cardinals. They’re not especially exciting but have minor league options and a track record of taking a lot of innings.
The Royals have gotten hits on some of their depth starters as they looked for outfield help. The Padres would be hard pressed to replace Ramón Laureano and obviously aren’t trading Fernando Tatis Jr. or Jackson Merrill. Unless the Royals want to take a flier on Tirso Ornelas, that’s a difficult match. The Mets entertained moving David Peterson and Kodai Senga at times this winter, but their salaries could be an issue for the Padres.
Teams are loath to trade affordable pitchers who have the upside to be more than fifth or sixth starters. The Padres have a lot of star talent but don’t have an especially deep major league roster, which makes it difficult to trade for an average starter without dealing too big a hit to a different area. The exception could be in the bullpen, where any of Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan or Bradgley Rodriguez would be compelling trade chips if the Padres felt they could weather a subtraction.
As it stands, San Diego will open the season with a top three of Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. Right-hander Randy Vásquez had a decent 3.84 ERA last year despite posting one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates (13.7%). Vásquez had a more impressive September, striking out 21% of opponents against a 3.4% walk rate in his last five appearances. First-year skipper Craig Stammen pointed to the strong finish in noting that the 27-year-old righty had “the inside track” to a season-opening rotation spot this week (separate MLB.com link via Cassavell).
If the Padres add another starter, that’d position Vásquez as the favorite to round out the group ahead of JP Sears, Kyle Hart and non-roster invitees Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie. Vásquez is out of options, so he’ll be on the MLB roster in some capacity. Sears and Hart can freely be sent back to Triple-A for another year. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron is out of options but coming off a 6.48 ERA over 21 starts in Triple-A. He’ll have an uphill battle to holding a roster spot even with a strong performance this spring.
Though the Padres are also looking to round out their bench with another bat, it appears they’re unlikely to make a move at catcher. Preller said that while the front office explored the catching market over the offseason, they didn’t find any opportunities they considered to be an upgrade over the in-house pairing of Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano. “Ultimately, I think we looked at the value of the players we have as behind the plate and catching, making that as good a group as we can have,” Preller told reporters. “Go find some other value throughout other position player additions.”
Fermin doesn’t have much offensive upside but is a highly-regarded defender. He’ll be the primary catcher. Campusano has defensive questions but raked last year in Triple-A. The Padres didn’t seem to trust him defensively, keeping him in the minors while running out Elias Díaz and Martín Maldonado until they acquired Fermin at the deadline. They opted not to trade Campusano this offseason, though, and they’re evidently content to carry him as a bat-first backup now that he can no longer be optioned. They don’t have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, nor has any minor league catcher in the organization played a single MLB game.
Preller also addressed his own contract status on Thursday. He’s entering the final year of his deal and hasn’t come to terms on an extension. That’ll continue to be a question until an agreement is reached, though the longtime executive downplayed any concern.
“Either way, I’m under contract,” he told Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune and other members of the beat. “So it’s all about putting a team on the field that’s going to win. We still (have) a lot of work to do in terms of continuing to round out the roster. That continues to be the focus.” Acee writes that it’s still generally expected that a deal will get done — perhaps as early as Monday’s report date for the team’s position players.
Padres Place Nestor Cortes On Injured List
The Padres placed starter Nestor Cortes on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 4, with a biceps strain. San Diego recalled reliever Ron Marinaccio to provide an extra bullpen arm for tonight’s game in Colorado. It might be a one-day MLB stint. Righty Randy Vásquez joined the team at Coors Field and told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune) that he’ll be recalled to start Saturday’s game.
It continues a rough season for Cortes, whom the Friars acquired from the Brewers at the trade deadline. The lefty’s Milwaukee tenure consisted of two starts and eight runs allowed in as many innings. He then suffered a flexor strain that cost him four months. By the time he was ready to return right around the deadline, the Brewers had six or seven better starting pitchers. They traded Cortes to San Diego, who activated him from the IL on August 3.
Things haven’t gone well through six starts. Cortes carries a 5.47 earned run average through 26 1/3 innings. His strikeout, walk and home run rates are all poor. Cortes has managed one strong start, tossing six scoreless innings to beat the Dodgers on August 23. That’s the only time he’s completed six frames with the Padres. He had his worst outing on Wednesday, giving up four homers and six runs without escaping the third inning against Baltimore.
San Diego acquired Cortes and JP Sears at the deadline in an effort to stabilize the back of the rotation. That became increasingly important when they packaged Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to Kansas City for catcher Freddy Fermin. Neither addition has worked out so far, as Sears has given up nine earned runs in 14 2/3 frames over his first three starts.
The Padres quickly optioned Sears to Triple-A. He apparently has fallen behind Vásquez on the depth chart, as the Friars elected to call up the righty. Sears is scheduled to start tonight in the minors, which would indicate he’s not in the mix to start on Tuesday in what would have been Cortes’ rotation spot. (San Diego relied on a bullpen game the last time they would have needed a fifth starter.) They may be targeting that day for Michael King to return from the injured list. Manager Mike Shildt told 93.7 The Fan that King threw five innings in a scrimmage at the team’s Arizona complex yesterday. Shildt did not commit to a date for the righty’s reinstatement.
Padres Place Michael King On Injured List
August 15: King spoke to reporters, including AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, about his injury today. He says an MRI showed no structural damage and he hopes to return when first eligible.
August 14: The Padres announced that right-hander Michael King has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to left knee inflammation, retroactive to August 11th. Right-hander Randy Vásquez has been recalled in the corresponding move.
The Friars haven’t yet provided any information about King’s injury or how long they expect him to be out of action. His IL placement is a notable development regardless. The Padres just passed the Dodgers to take a one-game lead in the National League West. The two clubs open a three-game series against each other in Los Angeles tomorrow with the division lead on the line. King was scheduled to take the ball in the first game but that will no longer be the case. Perhaps Vásquez will take the ball instead. Dylan Cease, scheduled to start Saturday, could start Friday instead and still be on regular rest.
For King, it continues what has already been an injury-marred season. He landed on the IL in late May due to shoulder inflammation. That injury once seemed fairly innocuous, as King woke up feeling some discomfort after sleeping on his shoulder awkwardly. It was later revealed that he was battling an issue with his thoracic nerve. It took him over two months to return to the big league club.
Once he was healthy enough to get back on the mound, his return to the majors was swift. He made just one rehab start, which was on August 3rd. He tossed 61 pitches over 3 1/3 innings for Triple-A El Paso, allowing six earned runs. The Padres nonetheless activated him from the IL to start Saturday’s big league game. It took him 57 pitches to get through two innings against the Red Sox, allowing two earned runs in the process.
Evidently, some knee inflammation popped up between that start and today. There’s nothing to indicate King is in for an extended absence but it’s still not a great development for the club. King had a tremendous breakout with San Diego last year. He tossed 173 2/3 innings with a 2.95 earned run average, 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. His rate stats were fairly similar this year before landing on the IL.
Ideally, the Padres would have that kind of production in their rotation, not only in the regular season but also in the playoffs. Perhaps King can get back on track in a few weeks but this is surely a setback they didn’t want.
They now go into the next few weeks with a rotation consisting of Cease, Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Nick Pivetta and perhaps Vásquez. Guys like JP Sears, Matt Waldron and Kyle Hart are on optional assignment. Pivetta’s having a great year but Cease has a 4.86 ERA over his past ten starts. Darvish and Cortes have both been on the IL for most of the season. Having King back to his 2024 self would have made the group much stronger but he’s back on the shelf. Tomorrow’s game in Los Angeles is the first of 13 in a row without an off-day.
It’s also not a good development for King personally, as he’s an impending free agent. After his tremendous 2024 campaign and in the early parts of this year, he was trending towards being one of the top free agent starters of the 2025-26 offseason, with a good shot at a nine-figure deal. His monthslong summer absence put a cloud of uncertainty around him and put a big dent in his earning power.
Getting back to the majors could have been the first step towards putting him back on track. Almost two months of solid regular season work followed by a few good postseason starts could have erased the memory of that shoulder injury. That could still happen to some degree, but the window is now narrower.
Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images
Padres Option JP Sears
The Padres announced they’ve optioned JP Sears to Triple-A El Paso. They recalled reliever Sean Reynolds and will go with a nine-man bullpen in the short term. Sears will spend at least 15 days in the minors unless he’s brought up to replace a player going on the injured list.
San Diego acquired Sears alongside Mason Miller in last week’s massive deadline deal. The 29-year-old southpaw made his team debut last night. He allowed five runs in as many innings on 10 hits and a walk against the Diamondbacks. Sears took the loss in a 6-2 defeat. He’d carried a 4.95 earned run average over 22 starts with the A’s. Yesterday pushed his ERA to 5.12 across 116 innings. It’s a bottom 10 mark among pitchers to log at least 100 frames. Sears had the highest home run rate among that group, offsetting his nearly league average 20.3% strikeout rate and solid 6% walk percentage.
This is the first time in two and a half years that Sears heads to the minors. He broke camp with the A’s in 2023 and has been in the majors since then. Sears has also avoided the injured list for that entire time. As a result, he’s tied for fifth in MLB with 87 starts since the beginning of the ’23 season. The durability is the big selling point, as his production (4.62 ERA/4.56 SIERA) over that stretch is that of a fifth or sixth starter.
The demotion shouldn’t have any impact on Sears’ service trajectory. He has already surpassed the three-year mark and will qualify for arbitration next winter. He’s under team control for three seasons beyond this one. While he’ll probably be back up at some point this year, it may require an injury elsewhere in the rotation.
San Diego optioned Randy Vásquez over the weekend. They currently have a four-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish and deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes. Darvish and Cortes will get the ball for the next two outings. San Diego is off Thursday and could turn back to Pivetta and Cease on extra rest for their first two games of the weekend series against the Red Sox.
That’d point to the series finale on August 10 as Michael King’s return date. King threw 61 pitches in what is expected to be his final rehab start on Sunday (via the MLB.com injury tracker). He’d be on six days rest for his first MLB appearance since he went on the injured list in late May with a nerve problem in his throwing shoulder.
Padres Option Stephen Kolek, Connor Joe
The Padres announced that they’ve optioned Stephen Kolek, Ron Marinaccio, Luis Campusano and Connor Joe to Triple-A El Paso. None of those players will start the season on the major league roster.
Kolek’s demotion is most notable, as it essentially finalizes the Opening Day rotation. Kyle Hart and Randy Vásquez will open the year as the respective fourth and fifth starters behind Dylan Cease, Michael King and Nick Pivetta. (Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote earlier this evening that the team was leaning in that direction.) There were two spots up for grabs with Yu Darvish beginning the season on the injured list as he battles elbow inflammation.
A 2023 Rule 5 pick, Kolek spent last season in the MLB bullpen. He posted a 5.21 ERA across 46 2/3 innings. While Kolek’s 18.5% strikeout rate was mediocre, he got ground-balls at an excellent 55.9% clip. He showed enough that the Padres built him back up as a starter this spring. Kolek had a good camp, pitching 12 1/3 innings of three-run ball with a 61.5% ground-ball rate.
That evidently wasn’t enough to leapfrog Hart and Vásquez on the depth chart. Hart, a 32-year-old southpaw, signed a $1.5MM free agent deal after spending last season in Korea. His four career major league appearances came with the Red Sox in 2020. Hart has given up eight runs over 7 2/3 Spring Training frames, but his 2.69 ERA in the KBO last year made it likely he’d crack the rotation. That was less clear with Vásquez, who started 20 games with an ERA approaching 5.00 for San Diego a year ago. He has recorded seven strikeouts with one walk over eight innings this spring.
Campusano was ticketed for Triple-A once the Padres tabbed Martín Maldonado to work as the backup catcher behind Elias Díaz. Assuming he spends at least 20 days in the minors, this will be Campusano’s final option year. It’s a make or break season for the former top prospect. Joe signed a $1MM free agent deal to work as the short side of a left field platoon with Jason Heyward. He’s been passed on the depth chart by Brandon Lockridge even though he hit .316/.469/.447 this spring. Lockridge, another righty-hitting outfielder, is a superior runner who’ll provide more athleticism on Mike Shildt’s bench.
Yu Darvish To Begin Season On Injured List
Right-hander Yu Darvish will begin the season on the injured list. Manager Mike Shildt informed reporters today, including Dennis Lin of The Athletic and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. The righty was diagnosed with elbow inflammation earlier this week. “We feel pretty comfortable that some rest and getting ramped back up will be the answer,” Shildt says. That doesn’t point to a long absence but it will leave two rotation spots for the trio of Kyle Hart, Stephen Kolek and Randy Vásquez.
Darvish has been dealing with occasional bouts of elbow inflammation for a while now. He finished the 2023 season on the IL due to inflammation in that right elbow. In 2024, he missed time due to various issues. He had some neck tightness, a groin strain, an undisclosed family issue and some more elbow inflammation. He was limited to 81 2/3 innings last year.
Though Shildt downplayed the severity, it’s a somewhat concerning situation. Any injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow is somewhat alarming. In the case of Darvish, the elbow problems are becoming somewhat frequent and he’s going to turn 39 years old in August.
The San Diego rotation has been an ongoing point of focus. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, blowing a big hole in the 2025 staff. That left them with a front three of Darvish, Dylan Cease and Michael King. They signed Nick Pivetta in the offseason to take a fourth spot.
That left guys like Matt Waldron, Hart, Kolek and Vásquez as contenders for the final rotation spot. But Waldron is on the shelf due to an oblique strain and now Darvish is out. That appears to leave two rotation spots for the Hart/Kolek/Vásquez trio.
Hart has almost no major league experience but dominated in Korea last year. He tossed 157 innings in the KBO with a 2.69 earned run average, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. That led to a deal with the Padres but he was slowed in camp by the flu. He only made his spring debut on Sunday, tossing three innings.
Kolek just made his big league debut last year, as a Rule 5 pick out of the Mariners organization. He stuck in the San Diego bullpen all year and posted a 5.21 ERA, though with better peripherals. His .359 batting average on balls in play and 64.3% strand rate were both on the unlucky side, so he had a 3.57 FIP and and 3.41 SIERA. He has been getting stretched out in camp and has a 2.19 ERA in 12 1/3 innings.
Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA over 20 starts for the Friars last year. He has only thrown four innings of official Cactus League action, having allowed two earned runs with three strikeouts and one walk. His last official outing was March 2 but he has been throwing on backfields and in sim games.
Poll: Padres’ Rotation Battle
Shortly after the 2024 regular season concluded, the Padres were hit with a brutal blow when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his 2025 campaign before the offseason even began. That left the Padres with major question marks at the back of their rotation behind Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. While the late-winter addition of Nick Pivetta into the fold helped stabilize things, that still left one spot open in the club’s rotation headed into Spring Training. Darvish is now battling elbow inflammation himself, though the Padres haven’t ruled him out for the beginning of the season.
Knuckleballer Matt Waldron appeared to be the favorite for the final rotation job after he made 26 solid starts for the Padres last year, but he’s out of commission due to an oblique injury and expected to begin the season on the injured list. With Waldron out of the mix for the Opening Day rotation, that leaves left-hander Kyle Hart as well as righties Randy Vasquez and Stephen Kolek in the mix for the club’s fifth starter spot. Hart, 32, was brought into the organization last month on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM guaranteed. The southpaw has just 11 MLB innings under his belt, where he got blown up to the tune of a 15.55 ERA with the Red Sox during the 2020 season. After toiling in the minor leagues for years in an attempt to get back to the majors, Hart tried his hand in the Korea Baseball Organization last year.
The results were extremely impressive. Hart’s first and only year overseas saw him pitch to a sterling 2.69 ERA in 157 innings of work across 26 starts. He struck out an excellent 28.8% of his opponents while maintaining a strong 6.0% walk rate. That dominant work in Korea was somewhat reminiscent of the success right-hander Erick Fedde found in KBO play during the 2023 season, when he pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings and struck out 29.5% of his opponents. Hart’s numbers don’t quite match up with those of Fedde, but given Fedde’s excellent 2024 season where he posted a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts for the White Sox and Cardinals, even a significant step back from Fedde’s major league production would still make Hart a solid starting option in the majors.
It might seem reasonable, then, to assume that Hart is the favorite for the job. Things may not be that simple, however, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote over the weekend that Hart may be falling out of the race for the fifth starter job due to an illness that has limited him to just two appearances this spring. Acee noted that the Padres have been impressed by what they’ve seen from him so far, but much like Waldron, it’s possible that he simply won’t have time to build up enough to be the club’s fifth starter out of the gate this year. That could open the door for Vasquez or Kolek to jump in and take the job despite résumés that pale in comparison to Hart’s platform campaign.
Vasquez, 26, made 20 starts for the Padres last year. The results left something to be desired, as his 4.87 ERA and 4.70 FIP were both well below league average. With that being said, Vasquez improved throughout the 2024 campaign. After surrendering ten homers in his first nine starts last year, he settled into a rhythm in late June and posted a respectable 4.23 ERA with an even better 3.94 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work over his final 11 starts. While Vasquez’s ceiling isn’t especially high, it’s not hard to imagine him being a perfectly viable fifth starter this year, particularly if his improved ability to keep the ball in the park throughout the second half last year proves to be sustainable.
Kolek, meanwhile, is something of a wild card in the mix. Drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers back in 2018, the right-hander was traded to the Mariners in 2021 but did not make his big league debut until last year as a Rule 5 pick of the Padres. San Diego used him out of the bullpen, where he posted lackluster numbers despite strong peripherals. Kolek’s fantastic 55.9% ground ball rate and impressive 5.7% walk rate were overshadowed by a strikeout rate of just 18.5%, a massive .359 BABIP, and a lackluster 64.3% strand rate that left him with a 5.21 ERA despite a 3.57 FIP and a 3.41 SIERA.
Still, the right-hander showed enough that he not only stuck with the Padres all season, but club brass also decided to convert him back to a starting job despite him not pitching out of the rotation since 2022 at the Double-A level. His spring results have been impressive to this point, with a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings of work and five strikeouts against just one walk, but Kolek’s pedestrian results last year and lack of a track record as a starter in the majors or even at Triple-A could give San Diego pause about committing to him as a starter to open the season.
If Darvish avoids the injured list, who would you assign to the fifth spot in the Padres rotation to open the season? Would you give the nod to Hart despite his minimal work during Spring Training? Would you stick with the reliable Vasquez despite his relatively low ceiling? Or would you take a chance on a reliever conversion in Kolek? Have your say in the poll below:
Who should the Padres put in their rotation to start the season?
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Kyle Hart 44% (1,057)
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Stephen Kolek 28% (660)
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Randy Vasquez 28% (659)
Total votes: 2,376
Yu Darvish Questionable For Opening Day Due To Elbow Inflammation
Padres right-hander Yu Darvish has recently been slowed in camp. While it was initially conveyed that he had some general fatigue, manager Mike Shildt today provided a more specific and more ominous diagnosis. The skipper told members of the media, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, that the veteran righty experienced elbow inflammation after his last start.
Shildt stopped short of saying Darvish would start the season on the injured list, describing him as day-to-day. Opening Day is just over a week away, so it’s a tight window. Any time a pitcher’s throwing elbow is involved, it’s a cause for some concern. In the case of Darvish, there may be even more concern than with some other hurlers.
Darvish has dealt with some elbow problems in the past. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2015 season. He was largely health for years after that, though he hasn’t logged a huge workload in the past two seasons. He was capped at 24 starts and 136 1/3 innings in 2023. He landed on the IL in late August due to right elbow inflammation and stayed there to finish the year. In 2024, he only made 16 starts and tossed 81 2/3 innings. He missed time due to neck tightness, a groin strain, some more inflammation in that throwing elbow and an undisclosed personal issue.
That makes this the third straight season that Darvish has battled some elbow inflammation. For a pitcher who is now 38 years old, that’s less than ideal. It’s especially worrisome since rotation depth is one of the key issues on the San Diego roster. The Friars already lost Joe Musgrove for the entire season, as he required Tommy John surgery in October.
Losing Musgrove left the Padres with a rotation core of Darvish, Michael King and Dylan Cease. They signed Nick Pivetta to fill one of the back-end spots. Coming into camp, candidates for the final spot including Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez and Stephen Kolek. However, Waldron is out of commission due to an oblique strain. Hart has also been delayed by the flu and is behind the rest of the group in terms of building up. If Darvish needs to miss some time at the start of the season, that would seemingly leave two spots open behind the King/Cease/Pivetta trio.
If it’s just a short-term absence, the overall group could look stronger in a few weeks, with both Waldron and Darvish perhaps back in the mix. A more serious issue would naturally have bigger impacts. Both Cease and King are impending free agents. That means Pivetta and Darvish are the on-paper rotation nucleus for 2026. Musgrove could be back in the mix by then but may have some workload issues after missing all of 2025. Darvish is still under contract through 2028, as part of the extension he signed with the club in 2023.
It’s also possible this could impact the trade market. San Diego has notable budgetary concerns and various parts of the roster they would like to upgrade. That has led to rumors about Cease or King being available, though Cease’s name has come up far more often. It would be a tricky balance for San Diego to strike, as they would have to feel that reducing their rotation depth is worth it for multiple upgrades at left field, first base or designated hitter.
Presumably, Darvish being hurt would reduce the chances of a Cease deal in the short term, as it would be even harder to justify a rotation subtraction. Closer to the deadline, that calculus could change if the Padres don’t manage to compete. As mentioned, both Cease and King are impending free agents and would be natural trade candidates this summer if San Diego slips behind the other National League contenders.
Photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas of Imagn Images