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Quick Hits: Vogt, Giants, Braves, Phillips, Red Sox

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Mariners bullpen and quality control coach Stephen Vogt will interview with the Giants about their managerial vacancy this week, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.  The Giants have thus far interviewed only internal candidates about the manager’s job, yet Vogt isn’t exactly a true outsider, having played with the Giants during the 2019 season.  Vogt has plenty of other ties to the Bay Area, as he also played six seasons with the Athletics, and hails from Visalia, California (about a four-hour drive from San Francisco).

Vogt only retired from playing after the 2022 season, and his one season on the Mariners’ staff represents his only coaching experience.  That said, Vogt has been regarded as a future manager for years, so it isn’t surprising seeing him immediately pop up as part of a managerial search even though he is relatively lacking in coaching experience.  All of the candidates linked to the Giants thus far would also be first-time MLB skippers, so clearly the front office isn’t prioritizing a long resume when considering its next dugout hire.

Over 10 Major League seasons, Vogt appeared in 794 games with six different teams.  The big majority (528) of that action came with the A’s, but the Giants rank second on Vogt’s game list with 99 games played.  Vogt also briefly played with the Brewers in 2017, so speculatively speaking, it is possible the Brewers might give him some consideration if Craig Counsell doesn’t return as the manager in 2024.

Some more items from around the baseball world…

  • Some flame-throwing relief help figures to be a target for the Braves this winter, as Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that only two bullpens in baseball threw fewer pitches of 96mph or higher than the Braves did in 2023.  Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson contributed a big chunk of the high-velocity pitches Atlanta did throw, yet both relievers will be free agents.  With Jesse Chavez also a free agent and Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, and Brad Hand all on club or mutual options, “the situation allows the Braves to rebuild their bullpen, if they want,” Toscano writes.  Rookie Daysbel Hernandez could be an option on the high-velo front, as Atlanta thought enough of Hernandez’s potential to include him on their ALDS roster even though injury limited the righty to 3 2/3 innings in his first MLB season.
  • J.D. Martinez was known to be a Red Sox trade candidate heading into the 2022 deadline, and WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports that the Dodgers came “very close” to a deal to land the veteran slugger.  However, talks fell through when the Sox asked for Evan Phillips to also be included in the trade package.  At the time, Phillips was partway through a breakout 2022 season that saw him post a 1.14 ERA over 63 innings, and he went on to another outstanding year as the Dodgers’ first-choice closer in 2023 (2.05 ERA over 61 1/3 frames, with 24 saves).  Since the Dodgers pivoted to adding Joey Gallo at that deadline, it’s easy to wonder if Martinez could’ve or would’ve done more to upgrade the lineup, yet it’s hard to fault the team’s logic in wanting to retain Phillips.  As it turned out, L.A. got the best of both worlds in 2023, with Phillips closing games and Martinez delivering a big year at the plate after signing with the Dodgers as a free agent last offseason.

NL West Notes: Conforto, Manaea, Sewald, Dodgers

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Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea can each opt out of the final year of their contracts with the Giants, with Conforto owed $18MM in 2024 and Manaea $12.5MM.  Neither player has yet decided whether or not they’ll opt out, with Conforto telling NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic that “I think the good thing is it’ll be a hard decision, but I don’t think there’s a bad outcome really.  It will be tough, just because I’m very close with these guys and the uncertainty there could give you a little bit of anxiety, but again, there are a lot of conversations that have to happen before I’m even close to knowing what I want to do.”

Conforto hit .239/.334/.384 over 470 plate appearances in a season shortened by a hamstring injury, while Manaea posted a 4.44 ERA over 117 2/3 innings while working as a starter, long reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Manaea might be the likelier of the two to find a larger deal on the open market, as Pavlovic notes that a multi-year agreement could be possible since teams are forever in need of pitching.  Conforto could remain with the Giants and hope for a better platform year before re-entering the market next winter, though he’d be rejoining an outfield/DH picture that already looks crowded, and the Giants might still be making more moves to the outfield to add both athleticism and hitting pop.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks’ acquisition of Paul Sewald has proven to be one of the trade deadline’s most impactful moves, as The Arizona Republic’s Theo Mackie writes that the Snakes’ once-unsteady bullpen has turned into a strength.  From August 19 until the end of the regular season, Arizona relievers combined for a 2.94 ERA, with Sewald himself delivering a 2.84 ERA over 12 2/3 innings in that stretch, closing out nine of 10 save chances.  As noted by Mackie and D’Backs GM Mike Hazen, establishing Sewald as the closer allowed the team to stick to a pretty set formula for their bullpen usage, and this routine has helped the Diamondbacks both reach the playoffs and advance to the NLCS.
  • The Dodgers’ roster is broken down by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group, with an eye towards whether or not several players could be back in Los Angeles in 2024.  Among the free agents, Hoornstra likes the chances of a reunion with Enrique Hernandez, as the utilityman’s multi-positional ability could help add depth if a DH-only player (i.e. Shohei Ohtani) were to join the roster.  On the other hand, David Peralta is basically limited to just left field and only against right-handed pitching, so it seems like L.A. might prefer internal options.  There also seems to be a chance the Dodgers will re-sign Jason Heyward, which could make Peralta further “redundant” since Heyward is also a left-handed hitter and a more versatile outfielder.

Giants Interview Alyssa Nakken For Manager’s Job

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The Giants’ managerial search has mostly been focused on internal candidates thus far, and another in-house name has now been added to the list, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly reports that assistant coach Alyssa Nakken has interviewed in regards to the managerial vacancy.

Nakken has been a member of San Francisco’s organization since 2014, starting as an intern and then working in “a hybrid role within the front office that included event logistics, business development and coordinating health and wellness initiatives,” Baggarly writes.  This paved the way for Nakken’s hiring as an assistant coach prior to the 2020 season, making her the first woman to be part of a Major League team’s coaching staff.  Continuing this trailblazing path, Nakken is now the first woman known to ever formally interview to be a Major League manager.

The Giants assembled an unusually large coaching staff under former manager Gabe Kapler, as Nakken was one of 13 coaches assembled to provide players with a wide variety of personalized assessment.  Baggarly notes that Nakken’s duties focused on in-game planning, baserunning, and outfield instruction.

Beyond the obvious historic significance of what her hire would mean, the Giants’ interest in Nakken also continues the team’s apparent preference towards a first-time manager.  None of the internal names (bench coach Kai Correa, third base coach Mark Hallberg, adviser and former third base coach Ron Wotus, and catching bullpen coach Craig Albernaz) who have interviewed or are on the radar for interviews have ever managed at the MLB level before, apart from Correa’s three games as interim manager this season after Kapler was fired.  Hallberg and Albarnaz have managed a couple of years in the minors, while Wotus has seven seasons of minor league managing but not since 1997.

Kapler wasn’t a first-time manager when hired by the Giants in 2020, as he had previously been the Phillies’ skipper for the previous two seasons.  However, Kapler did fit the modern style of a younger, more analytically-inclined manager who works closely with the front office in shaping game-day strategies.  With all of San Francisco’s known candidates except Wotus fitting this general description, it would seem that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is leaning towards a first-time hire, and perhaps someone already familiar with how the Giants operate.  Beyond just the in-house names, Rangers bench coach Donnie Ecker has also been mentioned as person of interest in the Giants’ search, and Ecker worked as the Giants’ hitting coach in 2020-21 before moving on to Texas.

Yuki Matsui To Explore Signing With MLB Teams

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Star closer Yuki Matsui looks to be interested in a potential move to Major League Baseball, as a Yahoo Japan report (Japanese language link) indicates that Matsui has exercised his international free agent rights, as well as his rights to freely negotiate with other Nippon Professional Baseball clubs.

Matsui doesn’t turn 28 until later this month, but he has already accumulated 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.  As a result, the left-hander is a full free agent, and can be signed by MLB teams without an additional posting fee to the Eagles.  His age and experience also make him exempt from MLB’s international bonus pool structure.

It isn’t necessarily a sure thing that Matsui is headed to North America, as the Eagles are reportedly set to offer him a four-year contract worth $1.6 billion yen (roughly $10.7MM in USD) to remain in the fold.  However, Matsui has hired WME’s Bryan Minniti as an agent, which could hint that the southpaw is more interested in seeing what Major League teams have to offer.  Minniti has recently moved into the representation arena after a long front office career that included stints as an assistant GM with the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Nationals.

At least nine Major League clubs have already scouted Matsui, including the Padres, Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees.  It isn’t surprising that there is significant interest in a pitcher who is hitting the market at such a relatively young age, and who has already amassed such an impressive resume in Nippon Professional Baseball and on the international stage.  Matsui was a member of Japan’s championship team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though he only made one appearance during the tournament, throwing a scoreless inning.

Over 501 career games with the Eagles, Matsui has a 2.40 ERA and 236 saves, and the five-time NPB All-Star is the youngest player in league history to reach the 200-save threshold.  He has worked out of the bullpen for almost his entire career, except for his 2014 rookie season and during a brief return to rotation work during the pandemic-affected 2020 NPB season.  Matsui’s usage has also been somewhat impacted by the Eagles’ struggles, as the team has mostly posted mostly losing records during the southpaw’s tenure.  With a 10.9% walk rate over his career in Japan, control has occasionally been an issue for Matsui, though his 31.85% strikeout rate indicates that his ability to miss bats isn’t in question.

Readers of MLBTR’s NPB Players To Watch feature are quite familiar with Matsui’s name, as Dai Takegami Podziewski had frequently highlighted the closer throughout the 2023 season.  Matsui had a dominant 1.57 ERA over 57 1/3 innings for the Eagles this season, and Dai noted that Matsui made the splitter a much heavier part of his pitching arsenal, perhaps as a bit of a showcase for MLB evaluators.

However, Matsui’s small role in the WBC could have been due to reported difficulty he had throwing the WBC ball, which was larger than the standard ball used in NPB play and closer to the type of baseball used in the majors.  More broadly, Matsui has a relatively small frame (5’8″ and 167 pounds), so scouts may have concerns over how he might hold up over the long term, even if he has been pretty durable during his time with the Eagles.

This winter’s market for left-handed relievers has some interesting names, headlined by ace closer Josh Hader.  Matsui immediately becomes an intriguing new name in this group, as at least a candidate for high-leverage innings if perhaps not strictly a saves specialist.

East Notes: Nationals, Ciolek, Orioles, Phillies, Rays

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The Nationals have hired Brad Ciolek as their new senior director of amateur scouting, as initially reported by The Athletic’s Keith Law (X link).  Andrew Golden of the Washington Post was the first to report Ciolek’s specific new title, and he’ll work under another new hire in scouting director Danny Haas.  Both Hass and Ciolek worked together in the Orioles’ front office from 2012-19, with Ciolek only just leaving Baltimore after acting as the director of draft operations.

The Talk Nats blog also reported that amateur scout Reed Dunn is close to joining the organization, and Ciolek and Dunn are just two of several new hires within a significantly reshaped player development system.  President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has been looking to upgrade how the Nationals identify and develop young talent, as the latest step in the team’s rebuilding process.  D.C. made some progress with the big league roster in 2023, but with contention still probably at least one more years away, figuring out how to add more quality prospects to the pipeline is of major importance.  Ciolek has plenty of experience on this front, as he contributed to the Orioles’ own rebuild, and the deep core of prospects that now has the O’s in great shape to contend for the next decade.

More from around the NL and AL East divisions…

  • Advancing to the NLDS means that the Phillies will now need a fourth starter, and Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez are set to throw simulated games on Sunday to ramp up their arms for the possible assignment, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes.  Neither pitcher saw any action in the first two playoff rounds, and neither has pitched since September 30, hence the need for some extra warm-up.  Gelb figures Walker might get the official start in Game 4 since Walker has rarely ever worked as a reliever during his career, though both Walker and Sanchez could get some action during the game, perhaps in a piggyback capacity.  The Phillies haven’t yet announced their starters for the first three games, though it is expected to be Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez, probably in that order.
  • The Rays announced a series of internal promotions and role changes within their organization on Friday.  Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the full list, led by Blake Butera becoming the new senior director of player development.  Just 31 years old, Butera will now oversee the Rays’ vaunted player development system just seven years after he was in the farm system himself as a 35th-round pick for Tampa Bay in the 2015 draft.  After ending his playing career, Butera spent five years in the minors as a coach and manager in the Rays’ system, then worked as an assistant field coordinator in 2023.

Twins Notes: Payroll, Free Agents, Offseason Needs

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Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli met with the media Friday, speaking with reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) about what the club might be planning heading into the offseason.  Minnesota returned to the postseason as AL Central champions and won their first playoff series since 2002, advancing past the Blue Jays before falling to the Astros in the ALDS.

Building that roster came with a higher price tag than usual for the Twins, as their Opening Day payroll of roughly $153.7MM was the largest in franchise history.  It isn’t yet clear how much the Twins will be able to spend to address their roster needs, or if they’ll again approach their 2023 expenditures.  Since the Twins were one of the 14 teams who had broadcasting contracts with Bally Sports, their TV situation is now up in the air since the Diamond Sports Group (Bally’s parent company) filed for bankruptcy last year, and the Twins haven’t yet found a new broadcasting partner.

“That’s a reality of our offseason.  It’s not just for us.  It’s for other clubs, too,” Falvey said.  “That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate.  It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue.  That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody.  That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

A good chunk of money is naturally coming off Minnesota’s books in the form of free agents, though Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano all played key roles last season and their departures would be felt.  Likewise, the Twins could save more money in declining their club options on Jorge Polanco ($10.5MM) or Max Kepler ($10MM), but that creates two more holes to be filled.

As expected, Falvey didn’t share any real detail about whether or not the Twins would look to retain any of these players, speaking in generalities about how they liked their contributions and, more broadly, how the team would explore the possibility of retaining any of the group.

Speaking of Gray in particular, Falvey said “we’ll continue to have dialogue with Sonny, but that process is going to take some time to work through the part of the free agency process that he’s earned.  I’m sure he’s going to be respected through this process by a whole host of clubs.”

Since Gray is expected to land one of the larger contracts of any pitcher in this winter’s free agent class, that might lean in favor of a deal with a team other than Minnesota, even though Gray has been open about his affinity for playing in the Twin Cities.  Gray will surely receive a qualifying offer from the Twins and is likely to reject the one-year pact, leaving the Twins in position to recoup a compensatory pick if Gray did indeed sign elsewhere.

Maeda seems to be the likelier of the two pitches to re-sign, and Gleeman opines that a deal might be worked out between Maeda and the Twins if the Japanese righty is open to a shorter-term contract.  In the event that both Gray and Maeda left, Falvey said he liked the Twins’ remaining rotation options, which arguably already make up a solid starting five in Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Chris Paddack.

“That’s a good group to start with, but it doesn’t mean we’re not going to think about ways to get better….I would say we’ll see where the process takes us,” Falvey said.  The PBO and Baldelli both also mentioned how well Varland pitched as a reliever last year, yet indicated that there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to determine Varland’s 2024 role.

Baldelli “would anticipate” Royce Lewis as Minnesota’s regular third baseman at least heading into spring camp.  Despite his ability to play multiple positions, Lewis spent more of his time at the hot corner in 2023, so it makes sense that the Twins would stick with what seems to be working.  With Lewis at third base, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second, Alex Kirilloff getting most of the first base at-bats, and the versatile Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer around for depth, this might leave Polanco out of playing time, and perhaps out of luck in getting his option exercised.

Kepler’s option is a little more in flux, in part because Byron Buxton’s ability to play center field is still in question after the former Gold Glover underwent another knee procedure.  If Buxton is again limited to DH work or can’t play whatsoever, that leaves the Twins likely in search of another center field option if Taylor doesn’t re-sign.  If Castro is called upon for at least part-time work in center field, that opens up another hole in the infield picture.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT.  Click here to leave a question in advance.

The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment.  With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM

Option Decisions

  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
  • Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall.  Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays.  Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.

It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023.  The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.

Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons.  Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.

The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race.  As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep.  The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.

Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems.  One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement.  However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere.  Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024.  Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022.  Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors.  From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.

With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal.  The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.

Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed.  For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base.  In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off.  Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.

(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention.  As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)

Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base.  Davis Schneider’s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training.  Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.

Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles.  Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing.  By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.

The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular.  Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.

That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line).  With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.

Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out.  Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option.  Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate.  It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.

Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup.  Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong.  The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.

If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out.  Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer.  If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.

Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024.  The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.

Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim.  But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation.  Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year.  For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.

Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters.  The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.

Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign.  Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all.  If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade.  Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.

Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones.  Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought.  To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?

It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere.  Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers.  Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.

As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip?  It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base.  But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable.  Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.

For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez.  It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.

Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.”  How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.

Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on.  With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.

Giants, Athletics Discussed Offseason Trade Involving Sean Murphy, Marco Luciano

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The Giants and Athletics usually don’t combine for many trades, but the two Bay Area rivals got deep into talks about a possible blockbuster last winter, according to Tim Kawakami and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.  Kawakami reported back in July that the two teams “apparently were closing in on a deal” that would’ve involved Sean Murphy heading to the Giants, and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano going to the A’s.  In a piece today, Baggarly reports that San Francisco was willing to move Luciano, but talks fell apart when the Athletics asked for pitching prospect Kyle Harrison as part of the deal.

The specifics of the trade proposal or any other players involved isn’t known, nor is it known if the A’s wanted Harrison instead of Luciano as the centerpiece of a trade package, or wanted both Harrison and Luciano in the deal.  The former scenario seems likelier, as the Giants probably would’ve walked away a lot earlier had Oakland demanded both of San Francisco’s top prospects.

Oakland instead dealt Murphy as part of one of the offseason’s biggest trades — a three-team, nine-player deal between the A’s, Braves, and Brewers that saw Murphy go to Atlanta and William Contreras to Milwaukee.  Murphy lived up to expectations in his first year in Atlanta, making the All-Star team and hitting .251/.365/.478 with 21 homers over 438 plate appearances.  The Brewers were also big winners in the trade, since not only did Contreras shine offensively while making big strides with his glovework, reliever Joel Payamps suddenly emerged as a top-tier setup man.  The A’s bought some new young talent on board in their latest rebuild, most prominently the addition of American League stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz.

Beyond the incredible speed, however, Ruiz’s overall offensive profile is still a little shaky, making him less than a true cornerstone piece for the Athletics.  Some criticism has been leveled at the A’s front office for their returns on the trades of Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and others during this latest fire sale, with the most common argument being that the Athletics seemed to aim for quantity over true top-drawer quality.  Though we don’t know the exact nature of the deal the A’s and Giants were proposing, the inclusion of Luciano (or Harrison) would’ve brought one clear-cut top prospect to Oakland’s organization.

The three-team trade had such an immediate impact on the 2023 season that it would’ve created quite the ripple effect had Murphy instead ended up in San Francisco.  It can be argued that the Brewers might not have won the NL Central without Contreras carrying an otherwise shaky lineup, or without Payamps combining with closer Devin Williams to form a lockdown combo at the end of games.  Without those pieces in place, maybe the door is open for the Cubs or Reds to win the NL Central instead.

The Braves’ stacked lineup perhaps might not have missed a beat with Contreras instead of Murphy behind the plate, and Atlanta’s pursuit of Murphy was considered something of a surprise whatsoever since Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud were already in the fold.  That said, the Braves obviously felt they were getting an upgrade over the long term, considering they liked Murphy enough to almost immediately sign him to a six-year extension soon after the trade.  Such an extension might not have been on the table for Contreras.  While the Braves have a penchant for locking up their players, the fact that they dealt Contreras indicates some level of reservation, even if it might’ve been ultimately more a case of Atlanta particularly liking Murphy more than “disliking” Contreras, per se.

By that same dint, the Giants’ apparent willingness to move Luciano shouldn’t be an indication that the Giants are somehow down on the young shortstop.  In fact, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is heading into 2024 aiming to give Luciano at least “the chance“ to be the starting shortstop, underlining the 22-year-old Luciano’s importance to the organization as a building block.  Pundits have considered Luciano has been regarded as at least a top-37 prospect in each of the last four seasons, and he only just made his MLB debut this season, making 45 plate appearances in 14 games.

Dealing away a blue chip prospect like Luciano likely wouldn’t have been a possibility for the Giants at all if a unique trade opportunity (i.e. a controllable high-level catcher like Murphy) hadn’t been available.  The exact timing of the talks with the Athletics were also probably a factor, as the Giants might’ve been more willing to move Luciano if they’d thought Carlos Correa was joining the roster, yet Correa’s 13-year, $350MM agreement with San Francisco ended up falling through due to medical concerns on the Giants’ end.

Had the Giants acquired Murphy, they would’ve landed the signature star they were searching for without success last winter, after the Correa deal collapsed and after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees.  Perhaps adding Murphy might’ve been the spark San Francisco needed to get over the line in the wild card race, as in this alternate reality, the Giants have both Murphy and perhaps another MLB-caliber regular they received in a Patrick Bailey trade.  It is fair to wonder whether Bailey would’ve been shipped out in a world where Murphy is a Giant, instead of our world where Bailey emerged as a rookie and now looks like he’ll be San Francisco’s catcher of the present and future.

It makes for a fun cascade of what-if scenarios, and Bailey’s potential availability then stretches the web beyond just what might’ve happened with the Giants, A’s, Brewers, and Braves.  San Francisco fans may rue missing out on Murphy, though if Bailey continues to develop and Luciano lives up to the hype, the team might end up coming out ahead.

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