Poll: Will Anything Shake Up The NL Playoff Picture?
The playoff race in the American League figures to be a photo finish, with the AL East and AL West division titles both still up for grabs and four teams not currently in a postseason spot still within three games of the final AL Wild Card spot. By contrast, the National League looks very stable. Two of the league’s three division leaders have a lead of more than five games, and zero teams not already in the playoff picture are within three games of the final NL Wild Card spot. With just over 20 games left to play for every team, does that mean the NL playoff teams are set in stone? Let’s take a look at the state of the race:
The one place where the NL is within three games of a meaningful shift is the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a 2.5 game lead over the Padres. That division has been something of a dogfight for the whole second half. While the Dodgers were nine games up on their competition just two months ago, strong play from the Padres in conjunction with an aggressive trade deadline that saw the club bring in Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, and Ryan O’Hearn (among others) was enough to push them back into contention. They even claimed sole possession of first place in the division twice during the month of August, though both of those stays at the top of the mountain were short-lived.
While it wasn’t long ago that the Padres were right there with the Dodgers in the NL West race, it’s becoming difficult to see them overtaking their rivals. A 7-12 record since Los Angeles kicked off a three-game sweep of San Diego on August 15 has left the Padres flailing, and while the Dodgers have gone just 7-8 since that series concluded, there are no regular season contests remaining between the two clubs during which the Padres can make up significant ground. If there’s one thing going for San Diego in this race, it’s the strength of the club’s schedule. Ten games left against the Rockies and White Sox should leave a huge number of winnable games for the Padres to capitalize on, while L.A. is faced with seven games against the surging Giants and a three-game set with the Phillies before wrapping the regular season in Seattle.
Speaking of the Giants, they’ve sneakily gone 9-1 in their last ten games and have won each of their last four series. With 7.5 games separating them and the Dodgers, they’d need to do exceptionally well in those final two series against Los Angeles to have any sort of shot at forcing their way back into the conversation for the division title. San Francisco’s surge could realistically put them into the NL Wild Card conversation if things continue trending in the right direction, however. Aside from those aforementioned seven games against the Dodgers, the Giants face sub-.500 teams in their other 15 games remaining on the schedule.
That could be a soft enough schedule to provide some intrigue headed into the season’s final weeks, though the 71-70 Giants certainly have their work cut out for them. The Reds sit one game back of them with a 70-70 record, but arguably have more control over their own destiny than San Francisco does thanks to back-to-back series against the Mets and Padres over the course of the next week. Winning both of those series would more seriously put Cincinnati in the conversation for a playoff berth, but that could prove to be a tall order. The Cardinals and Diamondbacks are both lurking around the periphery of the race as well, but with identical 70-71 records and exceptionally tough schedules this September, it’s tough to see either club mounting a comeback.
As for the other two divisions, the Phillies and Brewers more or less appear to have their divisions wrapped up at this point with 5.5- and 6.0-game leads, respectively. Perhaps the Phillies dropping their four-game set against the Mets in Philadelphia next week could reintroduce some intrigue into that race, but with the Cubs/Brewers season wrapped up and a soft September schedule in Milwaukee it would take a shocking collapse for the Brew Crew to fall out of the top spot in the NL Central.
What do MLBTR readers think about the state of the NL playoff race? Will any of the division titles change hands by the time the regular season comes to a close? Will a team like the Giants or Reds manage to worm their way into a postseason spot? Or will the playoff picture look more or less identical to today when the season comes to a close? Have your say in the polls below:
Will Any Of The Division Leaders In The NL Change By The End Of The Regular Season?
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No 68% (1,448)
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Yes 32% (690)
Total votes: 2,138
How Will The NL Wild Card Race Shake Out?
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The teams currently in playoff position will hold onto their spots. 64% (1,577)
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The Giants will make the playoffs. 20% (494)
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The Reds will make the playoffs. 10% (249)
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Another team will make the playoffs. 6% (141)
Total votes: 2,461
The Opener: Dodgers, Pitchers’ Duel, Rays, Guardians
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Dodgers roster move incoming?
The Dodgers had an injury scare yesterday when star catcher Will Smith took a foul ball off of his throwing hand and exited the game. MLB.com’s Sonja Chen writes that x-rays on Smith’s hand came back negative, but given the importance of having multiple catchers available at all times, it wouldn’t be a shock if Los Angeles made a roster move to shore up their catching depth in the event that Smith is even day-to-day. Ben Rortvedt seems like the most likely choice to join the Dodgers’ roster in the event a third catcher is needed, but Chuckie Robinson and Chris Okey are also available at Triple-A. None of those players are on the 40-man roster, meaning they would need their contract to be selected before being brought up to the majors.
2. Pitchers’ duel in Pittsburgh:
Speaking of the Dodgers, they’re in Pittsburgh for a series against the Pirates. Today’s game will feature a particularly exciting pitching matchup, as the Dodgers will send two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (2.41 ERA) to the mound for his eighth start of the season opposite likely NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes, who has a 2.05 ERA across 28 starts and has struck out 28.6% of his opponents. While Snell has missed most of the 2025 campaign due to injury, the lefty sports a 31.7% strikeout rate with a 2.78 ERA since the start of the 2022 season. The two aces will face off at 6:40pm local time in Pittsburgh this evening.
3. Series Preview: Guardians @ Rays
Despite both clubs entering deadline season as sellers, the Guardians and Rays have managed to hang around the periphery of the AL Wild Card race into September. Cleveland is just three games back of the Mariners as they head to Tampa for a four-game set this weekend. The Rays are even closer at just 2.5 games back. That makes this upcoming series one that could have massive implications on the outlooks of both franchises. Things will kick off later today with Logan Allen (4.42 ERA) on the mound for Cleveland opposite Ryan Pepiot (3.70 ERA). On Friday, Guardians righty Gavin Williams (3.26 ERA) will take on Rays rookie Ian Seymour, who has a 2.97 ERA in 33 1/3 innings. Tanner Bibee (4.77 ERA) and Shane Baz (4.98 ERA) will face off on Saturday as they both try to finish strong amid disappointing seasons. The series will wrap on Sunday with Guardians rookie Parker Messick (2.08 ERA in three starts) taking on Rays righty Drew Rasmussen (2.74 ERA).
Poll: Can The Astros Hold On To Win The AL West?
Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest playoff odds. Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far less likely to hold onto their title than the rest.
One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto the division as of yesterday’s poll. The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. They’re 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houston’s managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point.
That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but there’s still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while Hunter Brown is still excelling amid a campaign that’s likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, Framber Valdez is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when Josh Hader was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isn’t scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. Cam Smith hasn’t sustained his strong start to the year, Isaac Paredes and Jake Meyers are on the injured list, and Jeremy Pena is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate.
All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, it’s the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, they’ll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston can’t necessarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games.
All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, it’s not as if they don’t also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. Yordan Alvarez and Cristian Javier, in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. Carlos Correa is already hitting better now that he’s back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the season’s final month.
The other thing working in Houston’s favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas aren’t exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. They’ll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the season’s final weeks, but without George Kirby and Logan Gilbert posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to Nathan Eovaldi, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager have dismantled the team’s veteran core for the foreseeable future. The losses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far less reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month.
How do MLBTR readers view Houston’s odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below:
Will the Astros win the AL West?
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Yes 58% (1,951)
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No 42% (1,424)
Total votes: 3,375
The Opener: Anthony, Judge, Tucker
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. Anthony exits with injury:
The Red Sox mounted an impressive comeback win in their game against the Guardians yesterday, but the mood was dampened by the fact that budding star Roman Anthony exited the game due to an oblique injury. After the game, Anthony spoke to reporters (including Tim Healey of the Boston Globe) and noted that this oblique injury is “definitely worse” than the day-to-day back injury he dealt with a few weeks ago. It’s unclear what sort of timeline for return to action Anthony might be facing. With a .292/.396/.463 batting line (138 wRC+) since being called up to the majors, Anthony has been the team’s most consistent hitter of the second half. Losing Anthony for any amount of time when the Sox are trying to erase a 2.5-game deficit to chase down the division-leading Blue Jays could be backbreaking for the team.
2. Judge pushes into Yankees history:
Aaron Judge rounded out the month of August in a big way by crushing his 43rd homer of the season on Sunday. That blast, as noted by MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, pushed Judge into a tie with Yogi Berra for fifth place in Yankees history. Judge’s next blast will not only give him sole possession of fifth place in franchise history — it’ll leave him just three homers shy of surpassing the great Joe DiMaggio, who sits fourth with 361 round-trippers. Though that fourth-place spot is within reach for Judge this season, he still has a long way to go before he can even think of cracking the top three. Lou Gehrig, currently third all-time in Yankee homers, finished his career with 493. For now, Judge will continue hunting for No. 359 against Astros righty Jason Alexander and his 4.61 ERA later today.
3. Tucker exits with injury:
After a lengthy slump that led to a brief benching, Kyle Tucker appears to be back to his usual self. Since returning to the Cubs’ lineup on Aug. 21, he’s batting .364/.462/.727 (227 wRC+) in 52 plate appearances, capping that stretch off by crushing a three-run homer against Atlanta last night. Unfortunately, he’s hit a bit of a speed bump in that turnaround. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian notes that Tucker was pulled from yesterday’s game due to soreness in his calf.
Manager Craig Counsell said after the game that Tucker would be out of Wednesday’s lineup ahead of a Thursday off-day, thus giving him two full days to rest before he’s reevaluated Friday. The Cubs are virtual playoff locks — they’re five games back of the Brewers in the NL Central but ten games up on the Reds in the Wild Card scene — so they can afford to be a little more cautious than other contenders who are fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?
We’re into the final weeks of the season now, but a handful of postseason races are still up for grabs. Perhaps the most competitive division at this point is the AL East, which is the only division where three teams still have at least a 10% chance of taking home the crown according to Fangraphs. Who will ultimately emerge victorious? Here’s a look at each of the three teams, listed in order of their winning percentage entering play today:
Toronto Blue Jays (79-59)
The Jays took the lead in the division on July 3 and haven’t relinquished it since. It’s not hard to see why they’ve been successful. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t having the sort of superlative, MVP-level campaign he posted in 2024 but remains an anchor for the lineup with 21 homers, 30 doubles, and a .383 on-base percentage. George Springer has enjoyed a resurgent season at the age of 35, slashing an outstanding .300/.391/.533 in 116 games. Bo Bichette (130 wRC+) is back to his normal self after last year’s injury-ruined season. Alejandro Kirk (118 wRC+) is making good on his extension with the club by putting up his best season since 2022. Daulton Varsho has 16 homers in 49 games despite dealing with injuries, and even less-established hitters like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Davis Schneider have put up strong numbers at the dish.
While so much has gone right for the Jays on offense, it must be noted that things haven’t gone as well when it comes to pitching. Kevin Gausman looks like the steady and playoff-caliber veteran he’s been for years now, but the rest of the rotation comes with questions. Toronto was reaping the benefits of Max Scherzer turning back the clock for a few weeks, but the future Hall of Famer just delivered back-to-back clunkers against the Twins and Brewers. Eric Lauer was pitching well but was sent to the bullpen after posting a 5.30 ERA in August. Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios are stable veterans, but they fit better at the back of the rotation than starting Games 2 and 3 of a playoff series. The bullpen has struggled somewhat as well, with closer Jeff Hoffman scuffling to a 5.02 ERA on the season and a 5.32 ERA since the start of July. Those pitching woes have led the Jays’ lead in the division to slip from five games a week ago to 2.5 games. Will they be able to stop the bleeding and secure a division title?
New York Yankees (76-61)
Just a couple of weeks ago, the Bronx Bombers looked to be in a more dire position after losing five straight to the Marlins and Rangers before dropping three games in a row to the Red Sox. They rebounded from those losses to Boston by picking up the final game of that series, however, and that win started a seven-game streak that only just ended with a close loss to the White Sox over the weekend. While nice performances from players like Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been helpful for the Yanks this season, their success can be overwhelmingly attributed to Aaron Judge.
The reigning AL MVP has put together another season for the ages (196 wRC+), and it’s largely thanks to him that the club has been able to hang in the postseason race despite a disappointing season from Anthony Volpe and Paul Goldschmidt‘s second-half struggles. Of course, Judge has been recovering from a flexor strain that’s seemingly impacted him at the plate and kept him from playing the field. That’s pushed Giancarlo Stanton‘s strong bat out of the lineup on some days and forced his subpar glove into the outfield on the rest. A leaky bullpen hasn’t helped, though the starting rotation is looking better now that Max Fried appears to be getting back on track after a rough patch. One other thing working in New York’s favor is the schedule; they’ll face the last-place Orioles and White Sox in their final 10 games of the season.
Boston Red Sox (77-62)
The Red Sox have worked their way back from the malaise they faced towards the end of the Rafael Devers era to make themselves legitimate playoff contenders. Unlike the other two AL East clubs, it’s been the pitching leading the way. Garrett Crochet is in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball this year, and both Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have looked the part of playoff starters. It’s arguably been a career year for veteran closer Aroldis Chapman, and Garrett Whitlock has excelled in a setup role. Top prospect Payton Tolle has been called up for the stretch.
While Boston’s pitching staff is impressive, they’re held back a bit by an offense that doesn’t quite measure up. Roman Anthony already looks like a star, but the rest of the lineup has lacked consistency. Alex Bregman is slumping since the start of August, Wilyer Abreu is on the injured list, and Ceddanne Rafaela has struggled badly since the All-Star break. Trevor Story started slow but has been great since June. Romy Gonzalez has tattooed lefties but been sub-par versus righties. Boston’s 24-17 record since the All-Star break is still encouraging though, and if Abreu comes back healthy and/or Bregman turns things around, the lineup would look more formidable.
Each of the three remaining contenders for the AL East title have one series against each other left in September. Who do MLBTR readers think will come out on top? Will the Blue Jays hold on despite their pitching woes? Can Judge lead the Yankees back to the top of the division? Or will the Red Sox offense turn things around to support their excellent pitching? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the AL East?
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Toronto Blue Jays 46% (3,225)
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Boston Red Sox 28% (1,993)
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New York Yankees 26% (1,829)
Total votes: 7,047
The Opener: Farris, Orioles, Yankees, Astros
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Farris to make MLB debut:
The Angels selected the contract of left-hander Mitch Farris yesterday when rosters expanded to 28 players. Farris will make his MLB debut when he takes the ball today against the Royals and veteran right-hander Michael Lorenzen (4.62 ERA). Farris has spent the entire 2025 campaign at Double-A after being acquired from Atlanta in the Davis Daniel trade during the offseason. He has a 4.27 ERA in 116 innings of work at that level to go with an impressive 28.0% strikeout rate. Anaheim has long been aggressive when promoting its prospects, and the 24-year-old Farris will now get the opportunity to impact the big league level before ever setting foot at Triple-A.
2. Orioles 40-man move incoming:
The Orioles are set to welcome Tyler Wells back from the injured list today as they move towards a six-man rotation. With Wells set to start today’s game against Yu Darvish (5.66 ERA in ten starts) in San Diego, Baltimore will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate the 31-year-old right-hander’s return from the injured list. That could mean moving an injured player like right-hander Colin Selby to the 60-day injured list. If they’re confident all of their players on the 10- or 15-day IL can make it back before season’s end, the O’s could designate someone from the back end of their 40-man roster for assignment.
3. Series Preview: Yankees @ Astros
A potential postseason preview is set to begin today when the Yankees kick off a three-game set against the Astros in Houston. The series starts with an exciting pitching matchup: southpaw Framber Valdez (3.18 ERA) takes the mound for the Astros as the Yankees counter with fellow lefty Max Fried (3.06 ERA). Fried has struggled for much of the second half but will look to keep the good times rolling after back-to-back quality starts against the Red Sox and Nationals. Tomorrow’s game will feature rookie Will Warren (4.30 ERA) against swingman Jason Alexander (4.61 ERA in 54 1/3 innings), while the series finale will pit Carlos Rodon (3.18 ERA) against Cristian Javier (3.38 ERA in four starts) in the latter’s fifth start back from Tommy John surgery.
Poll: Will Anyone Get To 60 Home Runs This Year?
It’s been a great year for power hitters in MLB, as five different players slugged their 40th home run of the season before the end of August. It’s not often that so many hitters enter September with a realistic shot at the lofty threshold of 60 home runs in a season. It’s a feat that’s only been accomplished nine times, and the combination of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire account for five of those nine 60-homer seasons. Of course, it’s an incredibly rare feat for a reason, and many promising campaigns fall short in the season’s final month. 12 seasons with between 56 and 59 home runs have been logged throughout MLB history, after all.
Will this year’s biggest power threats join that club of also-ran seasons, or will we see the tenth 60-homer season in MLB history come to fruition this year? Here’s a look at each of the top home run hitters from this season and their chances of reaching that illustrious 60-homer plateau, in order of their current home run totals for 2025:
While everyone else on this list hit their 40th homer of the season in August, Raleigh’s 40th home run was actually slugged on July 26. The Mariners’ catcher has had a historic season this year, setting the all-time single season home run record for a catcher while sitting just four behind Mickey Mantle for the all-time single season record for home runs by a switch hitter. With 50 homers tallied so far this year, it’s hard not to see why Raleigh could have a very real shot at hitting 60 home runs this season. He’s hit at least ten homers in three of the season’s five months so far, and has never hit less than eight in a month this year. With that being said, it’s also worth noting that Raleigh has slowed down a bit in the second half of the season. In 40 games since the All-Star break, Raleigh has posted just a 112 wRC+ with 12 home runs. With just 25 games left to play on the Mariners’ schedule, he’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s going to reach 60 homers this year.
Schwarber is just one homer back of Raleigh in the race for the MLB home run lead after an incredible four-home run performance on August 28. Schwarber has long been one of the game’s premiere power threats and, like Raleigh, has hit at least 10 homers in three of this season’s five months so far. He’ll need to hit 11 in 25 September games in order to reach 60 homers, but one thing working in his favor is that he’s saved most of his power for the second half this year. He’s hit 12 home runs in both July and August, so if he can put up just one more month like the last two, he’ll get there. Of course, a player slugging .655 over his past 52 games also runs the risk of getting pitched around, which could damage Schwarber’s chances of making it to 60. One thing that could work in Schwarber’s favor is his home ballpark, as Statcast considers Citizens Bank Park to be the fifth-most homer friendly stadium in the majors this year.
With three MVP awards in the past four years, no one should put anything past baseball’s two-way superstar. Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50 last season, and with 54 homers tied with Mantle (and seven other seasons) at 22nd on the single-season home run leaderboard. With 45 home runs headed into September, he has an outside shot at not only breaking that personal record, but getting a coveted 60-homer season. 15 home runs in a single month is a tall order for any player, but Ohtani did exactly that back in May when he crushed 15 long balls in 27 games. The Dodgers have two fewer games than that in September, but Ohtani will benefit from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors this year per Statcast.
Aaron Judge hit his 43rd home run of the season yesterday, and that makes it a tall order for him to reach 60 homers this season. With that being said, onlookers around the game should know better than to doubt the hulking slugger’s offensive abilities at this point, with MVP wins in two of the last three seasons and a completely absurd 202 wRC+ since the start of the 2022 season. Judge is also, of course, the only active player who’s already a member of the 60 home run club after bashing 62 long balls to take the AL home run record from Roger Maris during his 2022 AL MVP campaign. Judge finished just short with 58 home runs last year, but perhaps this year will be different. In order to reach 60 on the season, Judge will need to make a different kind of history: as noted by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com last year, the record for home runs hit in September (and October, in seasons where it hosts regular season games) belongs jointly to Albert Belle and Babe Ruth. Judge would need to at least tie that duo’s 17 homers in the final month of the year in order to crack 60 long balls this year.
What do MLBTR readers think? Will the league enjoy a 60-homer campaign for the second time in four years this season? And if so, who is most likely to pull it off? Have your say in the polls below:
Will there be a 60 homer season in 2025?
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No 59% (2,782)
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Yes 41% (1,920)
Total votes: 4,702
If someone WERE to hit 60 home runs this year, who would it be?
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Cal Raleigh 44% (2,001)
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Kyle Schwarber 43% (1,928)
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Aaron Judge 8% (341)
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Shohei Ohtani 6% (264)
Total votes: 4,534
The Opener: Roster Expansion, Alvarez, Heaney
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:
1. Roster Expansion:
It’s September 1, which means MLB rosters are expanding from 26 players to 28 players. Each team in the league will be able to add one position player and one pitcher to their roster today. Various organizations will take different routes to filling those roster spots. Some will use the opportunity to promote a prospect, as the Nationals are with today’s starter Andrew Alvarez. Other clubs will dedicate those roster spots to a veteran who was available on waivers or in free agency, as the Cubs have opted to do by picking up Aaron Civale and signing Carlos Santana. While active rosters are expanding, 40-man rosters do not get extra spots in September. That means any players not already on the 40-man roster will need to be given a spot to be called up as part of today’s roster expansion.
2. Alvarez to debut:
As mentioned above, the Nationals are promoting lefty Andrew Alvarez to the big leagues for a start today. It will be the former 12th-round pick’s big league debut, coming against an as-of-yet unannounced Marlins starter. Alvarez, 26, has 25 starts at the Triple-A level this year with a 4.10 ERA and a 21.5% strikeout rate in 123 innings. The southpaw isn’t ranked within the Nationals organization’s top 30 prospects by either MLB Pipeline or Baseball America, but if Alvarez can maintain something close to his Triple-A numbers in the majors, he could join a number of young potential back-of-the-rotation arms like Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and Brad Lord that the Nationals will have competing for starts next year. The Nats will need to select Alvarez’s contract to the 40-man roster before he can make this afternoon’s start.
3. Heaney to sign in NL?
The other aforementioned way many clubs will use their expanded roster spots—bringing veteran players from outside the organization into the fold—stands to potentially benefit left-hander Andrew Heaney. Heaney was designated for assignment by the Pirates last week and released after he cleared waivers, making him eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs. Heaney’s 5.39 ERA in 120 1/3 innings of work this year isn’t exactly inspiring, but clubs in need of innings could still look to the southpaw as a legitimate option.
It’s therefore unsurprising that, according to MassLive’s Chris Cotillo, one NL club is poised to bring him into the fold. While it’s unclear which team will be rostering the lefty, it’s not hard to imagine either a contending club in need of innings picking him up or even a non-contending club that wants to ease the burden on some of its young arms down the stretch. Heaney has spent the majority of his career in the AL, but has pitched for the Marlins and Dodgers previously in addition to his stint with the Pirates earlier this year.
Red Sox Extend Aroldis Chapman
TODAY: The Sox officially announced Chapman’s extension. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier also has the salary breakdown, starting with a $1MM signing bonus for the closer. Chapman will earn $12MM in 2026, and the 2027 mutual option is for $13MM with a $300K buyout. If Chapman pitches at least 40 innings in 2026 and he passes a post-season physical, he’ll lock in a $13MM salary for 2027.
AUGUST 30: The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with left-hander Aroldis Chapman that will keep the star reliever in town for the 2026 season, according to a report from Francys Romero of BeisbolFR. Romero adds that the deal includes an option for the 2027 season, which Chris Cotillo of MassLive adds is a vesting/mutual option. Cotillo goes on to report that Chapman is guaranteed $13.3MM by the deal, and that if the Wasserman client throws enough innings to vest his 2027 option he’ll earn $26MM over two seasons.
It’s not often that a player gets a raise headed into his age-38 season, but the fact that Chapman’s salary will jump by roughly $3.5MM headed into 2026 is a testament to the sensational season the veteran closer has had during his first year in Boston. Signed to a one-year, $10.75MM guarantee last November, the eight-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion has turned back the clock to produce what is arguably the best season of his entire career and undoubtedly his most impressive performance in nearly a decade.
In 57 games for the Red Sox this year, Chapman has pitched to an otherworldly 1.04 ERA while striking out 38.7% of his opponents. That’s the lowest ERA in the majors among qualified relievers, and only Mason Miller has struck out batters at a higher clip this year. Chapman’s 2.02 SIERA, 1.83 FIP, and 2.2 fWAR are all also MLB-best totals. If the newly-unveiled Relief Pitcher of the Year award was in play for the 2025 season, Chapman would be a slam dunk to win it in the American League. As it stands, he’ll have to settle for closing out big games for what is extremely likely to be a playoff-bound Boston club down the stretch and into the postseason.
Early in Chapman’s career, it was hardly uncommon for his name to be in the conversation for the best relief arm in baseball at any given moment. The lefty made his big league debut back in 2010 as a member of the Reds and, over his first seven seasons in the majors, pitched to a dazzling 2.08 ERA with an even better 1.88 FIP and struck out 42.6% of his opponents faced. That includes a run of four consecutive All-Star appearances with Cincinnati from 2012-15 and a dominant 2016 season where he pitched to a 1.55 ERA with the Yankees and Cubs before throwing 15 2/3 innings for Chicago in the postseason en route to the first World Series championship of his career.
Upon returning to the Yankees in 2016, however, the then-29-year-old Chapman didn’t look quite as dominant. As he’s moved into his thirties, his numbers have remained strong overall but not quite reached the level he enjoyed in the first few seasons of his career. Across eight seasons from 2017 to 2024, Chapman pitched to a 3.17 ERA with a 2.94 FIP, struck out 37.7% of his opponents, and saw his walk rate creep up from 11.6% to 13.6%. After spending parts of seven years with the Yankees, Chapman bounced between the Rangers, Royals, and Pirates before returning to the AL East as a member of the Red Sox this year. Now that Chapman’s posting results in line with those he put up during his peak, his stretch of bouncing between teams every year and facing uncertainty every offseason has come to an end.
Impressive as Chapman’s 2025 campaign has been, it would hardly be reasonable for the Red Sox to assume this is what they’ll get from the lefty going forward. There’s plenty of year-to-year volatility for even the most elite relievers still in their prime, and that rings true all the more for a hurler with a middling 3.68 ERA over his last three seasons prior to this year who is now looking ahead to his age-38 season. Chapman’s age is surely why his extension is limited to just one guaranteed season. After all, even Kirby Yates‘s dominant 2024 season with the Rangers wasn’t able to secure him more than a one-year guarantee from the Dodgers, while David Robertson had to wait until mid-season in order to land what he viewed as appropriate value for his services.
That aforementioned deal between Yates and Los Angeles is a particularly noteworthy comp for Chapman’s deal with the Red Sox, given that Chapman’s $13.3MM guarantee clocks in just $300K ahead of the guaranteed salary Yates is receiving from L.A. this year. While the agreement clocks in $2.7MM back of the $16MM guarantee the Phillies afforded Robertson last month, it must be noted that the deal between Robertson and Philadelphia comes with a notable asterisk: Robertson will only be paid a pro-rated portion of that deal from his signing in late July until the end of the season, which works out to just over $6MM he’ll actually be paid by the Phillies.
All of that is to say Chapman’s deal falls more or less in line with expectations for an aging closer coming off a dominant season. The specific innings threshold Chapman has to meet in order to vest his 2027 option is not known, and where that threshold ultimately falls will determine how realistic that option vesting truly is. A threshold of 50 innings, for example, would be very easy for Chapman to reach given that he’s cleared that benchmark in every full season of his career except for 2022. A 60-inning threshold would be a much taller order, as while Chapman’s 52 innings of work to date suggest he’ll have a real chance to cross that benchmark for the second consecutive season this year, his 2024 season was the first time he threw that many innings in the regular season since 2015.
Regardless of whether Chapman is sticking around for 2027 or not, his continued presence in the late-inning mix for 2026 should be huge for the Red Sox. Chapman can continue to serve as a veteran presence in a bullpen that figures to be quite young next year, with arms like Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten pairing with Chapman in the late-inning mix. One other potential x-factor is Jordan Hicks, who has at times been a dominant closer over the years but has struggled badly this year after opening the season in the San Francisco rotation. Perhaps the Red Sox hoped he could step into the closer role in 2026 when they acquired him as part of the return for Rafael Devers back in June, but Hicks has continued to struggle badly since joining the Red Sox and seems more likely to fight to hold onto his roster spot next spring than for a late-inning role. Bringing Chapman back into the fold should help lessen the club’s reliance on Hicks to bounce back, and if he does turn things around he’d form a lethal back-of-the-bullpen duo with the veteran lefty.
Photo courtesy of Brad Penner — Imagn Images
Cubs Claim Aaron Civale
The Cubs have claimed right-hander Aaron Civale off waivers from the White Sox, according to a team announcement. Left-hander Tom Cosgrove was designated for assignment to make room for Civale on the 40-man roster. In addition the White Sox announced that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Bryse Wilson to replace Civale on the club’s active and 40-man rosters.
Civale, 30, made his big league debut with Cleveland back in 2019 and posted a 3.77 ERA across 76 starts with the organization, but is now on his fifth team in the past three years as he’s changed hands between Cleveland, Tampa, Milwaukee, and now both Chicago teams. His numbers haven’t been nearly as good since he left the Guardians; since he was traded to Tampa, he’s pitched to a lackluster 4.78 ERA in 59 appearances with a 4.53 FIP and a 22.1% strikeout rate against a 7.5% walk rate. The numbers have been even less impressive this year, as he’s posted a 5.26 ERA with a 4.60 FIP in 16 starts between the Brewers and White Sox this year.
All of that might make it seem somewhat surprising that a Cubs team with designs on making it back to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2018 would have interest in his services. Despite Civale’s middling results, however, he’s still an appealing addition for Chicago thanks to the fact that he can log reliable innings for the club and help keep their top pitchers fresh ahead of the postseason. 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd has already logged 153 1/3 innings this year despite having last thrown even 80 innings in a single season all the way back in 2019. Meanwhile, rookie Cade Horton has racked up 127 1/3 frames between Triple-A and the majors despite having never even thrown 90 innings in a season before.
Those heavy workloads could come with consequences by the time October rolls around, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Cubs are already keeping a close eye on Boyd’s workload after he posted a 4.10 ERA in his last seven starts. Horton, meanwhile, has been among the very best pitchers in baseball since the All Star break with a 0.86 ERA in eight starts, but even he has thrown more than 74 pitches in just one of his six starts during the month of August. With Horton and Boyd likely to join Shota Imanaga at the front of Chicago’s rotation for the playoffs, it would make sense for the Cubs to try and ease off the gas for those players while leaning on their depth for the stretch run.
The problem with that plan is that Chicago’s depth has been taxed heavily by injuries. Front-of-the-rotation lefty Justin Steele has been out almost the entire year due to UCL surgery, and since then the Cubs have also lost both Jameson Taillon and deadline addition Michael Soroka to the injured list. Javier Assad has looked quite good since returning from his own stint on the injured list, but other arms will need to join him in helping lift up the front of the rotation if the Cubs are going to be able to rest Boyd and Horton this September.
That’s where Civale comes in, as he can join with other back-end starters and swingmen the Cubs have at their disposal like Assad, Ben Brown, and Colin Rea to help take the load off of Chicago’s projected playoff starters. At the very least, he should be able to serve as a capable bridge to players like Soroka and Taillon, who may be activated off the injured list before the end of the regular season. It’s also possible the Cubs will be able to get something more than innings out of Civale, given his past success and the solid enough 4.28 FIP he posted during his time with the White Sox.
In exchange for Civale’s services, the Cubs will pay the remainder of the right-hander’s $8MM salary for the 2025 campaign. That should free up some money for the White Sox as they look ahead towards the 2025-26 offseason and hope for better days next year. It will also provide opportunities for other arms to step into the rotation and show what they can do ahead of the offseason. Perhaps that will include Wilson, who was outrighted off the White Sox roster back in June after surrendering a 6.95 ERA in 45 1/3 appearances. Now that he’s back on the roster, perhaps Wilson will be able to finish the season strong at the big league level as he heads towards what will likely be free agency in the offseason, unless he pitches so well that the White Sox are convinced to tender him a contract for 2026.
As for Cosgrove, the lefty has a 2.25 ERA across four appearances with the Cubs this year after spending most of the season at Triple-A. He’s logged 70 big league innings in total over the past three years, the majority of which came as a member of the Padres, and in that time he’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a 4.07 FIP. The Cubs will have one week to try and pass Cosgrove through waivers, at which point they’ll have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minors if he goes unclaimed.