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AL East Notes: Varsho, Bello, Orioles

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Daulton Varsho underwent rotator cuff surgery in late September, with the expectation that he would likely start the season on the 10-day injured list, even if his absence wouldn’t stretch too far into April.  That timeline isn’t much clearer now that Spring Training is well underway, but Varsho logged his first Grapefruit League action yesterday, going 1-for-3 with a homer while acting as the Blue Jays’ designated hitter in a 10-7 win over the Tigers.  Getting back to regular hitting action is certainly a good sign for Varsho, and Jays manager John Schneider also provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) with some updates on Varsho’s defensive progress.

“There’s more boxes to check, like throwing to the bases on back-to-back days,” Schneider said.  “This was another good day for him, throwing out to 120 feet, so I think it’s more about how he’s rebounding from those once he does start throwing to the bases and getting into games….We’re trying to take this in three- or four-day buckets.  He’s progressing well.  I don’t want to put anything past him or say [Opening Day is] not a definite possibility.  It will go right down to the end as long as he doesn’t have any setbacks.  If he’s there, great.  If he’s not, we know he’s going to be soon.”

The defense is the biggest factor in Varsho’s recovery, as the Gold Glove winner is one of baseball’s best defensive players.  Matheson figures Joey Loperfido is the top candidate to fill in for Varsho in center field if an IL stint is indeed required, though these early results provide some optimism that Varsho could be ready to go for March 27.

More from around the AL East….

  • Brayan Bello continues to feel confident about breaking camp with the Red Sox, as the right-hander threw his first bullpen session of Spring Training yesterday following some shoulder soreness.  “The trainers are telling me that I’m right on track as long as I just keep doing my work that I’ve been doing,” Bello told MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith and other reporters, adding that only threw at around 70-75% of his capacity during the “very light session.”  An exact timeline hasn’t been established, but Bello figures he’ll get a couple more bullpen sessions before getting into his first game activity of the spring.  Obviously the Sox will continue to watch Bello closely and a season-opening IL stint hasn’t been ruled out, though Bello said Friday that “the shoulders are good, the mechanics are good.”
  • Though the Orioles signed Gary Sanchez to back up Adley Rutschman at the catching position, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wonders if the team might still add a veteran for depth purposes, just because the O’s would suddenly be thin behind the plate if Rutschman or Sanchez got hurt.  David Banuelos is the only other catcher in Baltimore’s camp with any MLB experience, and Banuelos’ big league resume consists of a pinch-hit at-bat in a single game last April.  A later-season catching injury might open the door for top prospect Samuel Basallo to make his debut in the Show, though Kubatko isn’t sure the Orioles would want to rush Basallo’s development in such a circumstance.  Basallo is regarded as one of the sport’s top prospects, and he made his Triple-A debut in the form of 21 games with Norfolk last season.

Padres Inquired About Westburg, Mayo, Basallo In Cease Trade Talks With Orioles

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Reports back in December suggested that the Orioles had trade interest in Dylan Cease, and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote today that the O’s and Padres indeed had some level of discussion about the right-hander’s availability.  However, it isn’t clear if talks have gone anywhere, as Kubatko reports that San Diego “checked on” some notable Baltimore players who “weren’t on the table,” including All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg and top prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo.  The nature of the trade discussion aren’t known, but presumably one of these three would’ve been the headliner of a trade package, with Cease (and perhaps other players) heading to Baltimore in return.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is said to be looking for “significant major-league value” in exchange for Cease, and it is only natural that Preller would aim high when discussing perhaps his top trade chip.  Landing Westburg would have filled San Diego’s second base position for years to come, Mayo could’ve become the Padres’ first baseman of the future and very likely a contributor in 2025, and Basallo projects as a keeper at either first base or catcher.  San Diego already has one of the sport’s top catching prospects in Ethan Salas, but further adding to the future depth chart would’ve given the Padres an embarrassment of riches at a notoriously difficult position to fill.

For many of these same reasons, the Orioles obviously have no interest in dealing any of this trio.  As Kubatko notes, it is particularly unlikely that Baltimore (or perhaps any other team) would trade away premium controllable talent for Cease, who is slated to enter free agency next winter.

It should be noted that the Orioles did swing a big trade for a rental pitcher just over a year ago, when the O’s moved Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (Baltimore’s Competitive Balance Round selection) to the Brewers in exchange for Corbin Burnes.  That trade package has been suggested by many as a possible comp for what the Padres might realistically hope to land in a Cease deal, though the fact that the Orioles already depleted their minor league depth for Burnes might make them unlikely to make another splurge for a pitcher with one year of control.

The Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox are among the teams who have also been linked to Cease’s trade market at various points this winter, though reports have suggested that Minnesota and New York are unable or unwilling to meet the Padres’ demands.  The Red Sox already dealt away some noteworthy young talent to obtain Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, and might not want to move even more players to also add Cease.

With several weeks to go before Opening Day, it is certainly still possible any of these teams or the Orioles could re-emerge as possible trade partners, should the Padres lower their asking price.  On the flip side, pitching injuries in Spring Training might well bring some new teams into the mix, perhaps with some increased desperation that would make them more willing to cough up a bigger trade package that would come closer to meeting San Diego’s needs.

Since Burnes was entering free agency and ultimately headed to the Diamondbacks, an ace pitcher was widely seen as perhaps the top need on Baltimore’s offseason checklist.  While the O’s were known to have at least had some talks about some top free agents or trade targets, the club instead made more moderate pitching adds, signing Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to one-year contracts.  Sugano and Morton join Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer as the Orioles’ projected starting five, with Albert Suarez working as a swingman in the bullpen, and the likes of Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott at Triple-A as further depth options.

With Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells also hoping to make late-season returns from UCL surgeries last season, the Orioles might end up having a surplus of rotation options if everyone is healthy.  In theory, it would make sense if the O’s offered one of the younger big league-ready arms as part of a Cease trade, as the Padres could then use that pitcher to take Cease’s spot in their own rotation.  But, with Eflin, Morton, and Sugano all free agents next winter, Baltimore surely hopes to dip into its depth to reload what might be a very different-looking rotation in 2026.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Jesús Luzardo

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The starting pitchers of the Marlins have been popular in trade rumors and the Orioles showed the most interest in left-hander Jesús Luzardo, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. It’s unclear exactly when the trade talks took place.

The Orioles have been looking for starting pitching all offseason so it’s logical that they would check in with Miami. The O’s were connected to trade candidates like Dylan Cease and free agents like Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton before landing a big fish when they acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers.

From the perspective of the Marlins, they don’t quite have the overflowing rotation surplus that they have had in the past, but it makes sense to listen to offers since they have holes elsewhere on the roster that need to be addressed. Catcher and shortstop are those spots that could clearly be upgraded but free agency doesn’t have many enticing options, so perhaps moving a starter would be their best bet even if the depth isn’t quite what it was.

They traded Pablo López to the Twins last winter as part of the return for Luis Arráez and then Sandy Alcantara required Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, they traded prospect Jake Eder to the White Sox for Jake Burger, thinning out the depth a bit.

After all that, the club’s rotation mix currently consists of Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, with Sixto Sánchez, Ryan Weathers and Meyer are some of the other options on the roster.

That group has its question marks. Cabrera gets tons of strikeouts and ground balls but has also walked 14% of batters faced in his career. He’s now out of options and can no longer be sent to the minors to continue refining his command. Rogers was great in 2021 but his results backed up in 2022 and then he was limited by injuries in 2023. He made four April starts last year before going on the injured list due to a left biceps strain, later being diagnosed with a partial tear in his right lat, never making it back to the club. Sánchez has thrown just one minor league inning over the past three years due to ongoing shoulder problems. Weathers had poor results last year while Meyer missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are reportedly setting a high asking price in trade talks concerning Luzardo, which is a sensible position to take. With that group of starters, they don’t strictly need to move someone since it’s arguably flimsy as it is. Luzardo is also under club control through the 2026 season, meaning the club needn’t be in any kind of hurry. He’s making $5.5MM this year and will be due two more arbitration raises in the seasons to come. That’s a bargain price for a guy who made 50 starts over the past two years with a 3.48 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate.

Cabrera and Rogers have also received some trade interest, but the asking price on them would naturally be lower on account of the Cabrera’s control problems and Rogers’ injury issues. Jackson and Mish add that the Marlins and Royals had talks about some kind of blockbuster involving Pérez and Bobby Witt Jr. but those talks quickly fizzled out. Those talks were towards the end of last season, while Kim Ng was still running the baseball operations department. Jackson and Mish report that the new regime, led by Peter Bendix, considers Pérez untouchable.

But with the holes elsewhere on the roster, there would be an argument for taking the right deal. The Marlins reportedly asked about catching prospect Samuel Basallo in trade talks with the Orioles, but the O’s had no interest in making him available. Part of Baltimore’s never-ending parade of elite prospects, Basallo is currently ranked 10th in the league by Baseball America and 7th by FanGraphs.

The Marlins currently have a catching tandem of Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes. Both are fairly well regarded on defense but don’t provide a lot with the bat. Bethancourt hit .231/.261/.361 last year and Fortes just .204/.263/.299. The 19-year-old Basallo would be more of a long-term solution there, as he only has four games above High-A and is unlikely to crack the majors for much of 2024, if at all.

The Orioles could also theoretically stand to part with Basallo since they already have a cornerstone catcher in Adley Rutschman, but that doesn’t seem like it will motivate them towards a deal. They also have a surplus of young talent on the infield and outfield but have generally held onto the majority of it, apart from including Joey Ortiz in the Burnes deal. They still seem to have too many players for the playing time they have to distribute but appear to be quite patient in letting moves come together.

As mentioned, it’s unclear exactly when the talks regarding Luzardo took place. Presumably, they were before the Burnes deal, but there would have been an argument for the O’s to still be pursuing rotation upgrades even after that. After that trade, the rotation projected to be Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and John Means. That’s a talented group but Rodriguez was inconsistent as a rookie last year while Means just returned from a lengthy Tommy John layoff. Adding Luzardo into that group would have been a viable path for the O’s to take, so it’s possible the talks happened post-Burnes, even if they didn’t make much headway.

It’s possible that their desire to get a deal done may have increased this week, however. It was reported today that Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, raising the spectre of Tommy John surgery. It’s still not determined if he will need to go under the knife but he will at least start the season on the injured list. Additionally, Means is about a month behind schedule due to an elbow issue he dealt with last year.

With two-fifths of their projected starting rotation now questionable, perhaps the O’s will circle back to the Marlins and reopen these talks at some point. Though the free agent market also still features notable names like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Meanwhile, Cease is still on the White Sox while other trade candidates like Shane Bieber or Paul Blackburn could still be available. Even after the Burnes trade, the O’s are still considered to have an excellent farm system and could pull off just about any trade they decide to make if they really wanted.

Kyle Bradish Diagnosed With UCL Sprain, Will Begin Season On Injured List

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Pitchers and catchers reported to camp for the Orioles today, but report date has brought unwelcome news for O’s fans. General manager Mike Elias announced to the team’s beat writers this morning that right-hander Kyle Bradish has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow (X link via Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner). He’s already received a platelet-rich plasma injection and will begin a throwing progression tomorrow, but he’ll open the season on the injured list.

Elias also revealed that Gunnar Henderson is behind schedule due to an oblique injury that’ll still need another two to three weeks of downtime, though the team isn’t concerned that he’ll miss much, if any time. Top catching prospect Samuel Basallo, meanwhile, has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow and will be limited to DH work in camp. He could begun throwing again by late April (X link via the Banner’s Andy Kostka). In even more injury news, lefty John Means is about a month behind the rest of the O’s starters, as the team had him delay the start of his offseason program after an elbow flare-up prior to last year’s ALDS (via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).

The Bradish injury is a brutal blow for the defending AL East champions, who saw the right-hander emerge as their clear No. 1 starter in a breakout performance last season. The 27-year-old Bradish made 30 starts and pitched 168 2/3 innings with a 2.83 ERA, 25% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground-ball rate. He’d been expected to open the season as Baltimore’s No. 2 starter behind newly acquired ace Corbin Burnes, but that clearly won’t happen now.

The injury occurred when Bradish began throwing in January, Elias added (X link via Meyer). The GM struck an optimistic tone, noting that “everything is pointing in the right direction” for the talented right-hander.

Still, any UCL injury for a pitcher is going to be met with immense levels of both trepidation and caution, given the potential for Tommy John surgery. The O’s, to be clear, have made no mention that a Tommy John procedure is a consideration at the moment — but a sprain, by definition, involves some degree of tearing in the ligament. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers diagnosed with a UCL sprain avoid surgery in recent years (Aaron Nola, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani to name a few), but the majority of UCL injuries eventually result in surgery of some kind. Again, that outcome hasn’t yet been broadcast by the team, and Bradish will clearly hope to add his name to the list of pitchers who’ve managed to rest/rehab a ligament injury without going under the knife.

With Bradish and Means both likely to begin the year on the injured list, Baltimore’s rotation outlook is radically altered. Burnes is surely still penciled in to take the ball on Opening Day, and he’ll presumably be followed by righties Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. The final two spots on the staff are far less certain. Options on the 40-man roster include righties Tyler Wells and Jonathan Heasley as well as lefties Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann. Wells’ success as a starter early in the ’23 season and Irvin’s track record in Oakland could give them a leg up in what will presumably be a spring competition.

That said, it was already arguable that the O’s could benefit from an aggressive push to further bolster the starting staff, and uncertainty regarding their No. 2 starter and Means, their former top starter (prior to Tommy John surgery) will only rekindle speculation. Top free agents like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, and the free-agent market also has several solid back-of-the-rotation veterans, including Michael Lorenzen and Hyun Jin Ryu. Trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett have not changed hands this winter. If the club is more pessimistic about Bradish’s injury than has been let on thus far, there’s an uncommonly large supply of potential reinforcements to consider.

Obviously, any additions will require further spending, whether financial or in terms of prospect capital (or both). But the Orioles are generally well positioned to make some kind of addition, should they find a deal to their liking. The team’s long-term payroll outlook is pristine, with only $1MM in guarantees on the books beyond the current season. Their projected 2024 payroll (per Roster Resource) is just $96MM — nearly $70MM shy of the franchise-record mark for Opening Day payroll. And even after trading Joey Ortiz and DL Hall to acquire Burnes, the O’s are still ranked by both Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic as the game’s No. 1 farm system.

AL East Notes: Middleton, Duvall, Angels, Basallo

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Keynan Middleton posted a 1.88 ERA over 14 1/3 innings and 12 appearances after the Yankees acquired the right-handed reliever from the White Sox in a deadline deal.  With those kinds of numbers, it isn’t surprising that the Bronx Bombers “have engaged about a potential reunion” with Middleton, according to MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

About of a month of Middleton’s brief time with the Yankees was spent on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation, though he was able to return to pitch in one final game before the end of the season.  Injuries have played an unfortunately large role in Middleton’s career, as he has been limited to 194 1/3 innings over his seven MLB seasons due to a number of health issues, primarily a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost all of the 2018-19 seasons.  Middleton hadn’t shown much form since returning from that surgery until this season, when he had a combined 3.38 ERA over 50 2/3 frames for Chicago and New York and some elite strikeout (30.2%), grounder (56.6%) and hard-contact (31.5%) rates.  While his walk rate remained below average, the 30-year-old Middleton might finally be back on track, and could again be a solid contributor to the Yankees’ bullpen.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox and Angels have been the only two teams publicly linked to Adam Duvall this winter, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that Duvall will “likely” wind up with one of those clubs barring a late bid from a new suitor. Duvall hit .247/.303/.531 with 21 homers over 353 plate appearances with the Sox last season, and his right-handed bat could serve as a nice complement to the lefty-swingers (i.e. Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida) that comprise much of Boston’s outfield mix.  Then again, Duvall could find more playing time in Los Angeles, given Mike Trout’s injury history and the lack of a consistent MLB track record for either Mickey Moniak or even Taylor Ward in the Angels’ outfield.
  • Since Adley Rutschman has quickly become a cornerstone player in Baltimore, catching prospect Samuel Basallo is often mentioned as a possible trade chip for the Orioles.  MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that rival clubs are indeed “checking on the availability” of Basallo in trade talks, yet it doesn’t seem likely that the O’s would move him for anything less than a spectacular offer.  Basallo doesn’t turn 20 until August, and since he has only four games of Double-A experience, the Orioles can take their time with his development as both a catcher and as a hitter.  Basallo has a strong throwing arm but evaluators are somewhat mixed on his future behind the plate, so if he ends up becoming more of a catcher/first base hybrid, Kubatko notes that there might be room for both Basallo and Rutschman to co-exist on Baltimore’s roster.  One of many gems from the Orioles’ deep farm system, Basallo is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 46th-best prospect in all of baseball, while Baseball America puts Basallo behind only Jackson Holliday as Baltimore’s top minor leaguer.

Big Hype Prospects: Langford, Manzardo, Mead, Jones, Basallo

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we visit some notable players at various stages of their journey and highlight three more whose 2023 success could yield top prospect status next season.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(CPX/A+/AA) 174 PA, 10 HR, 9 SB, .359/.471/.697

The Rangers, thirsty to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016, have to be giving consideration to Langford. He received a promotion to Triple-A today for the final week of the minor league season. If that goes well, Langford could be the latest player to debut in his draft year. He’s earned the consideration. Of all minor leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances, Langford ranks second overall with a 202 wRC+. He has more walks than strikeouts along with a .338 isolated slugging percentage. He has 25 singles and 26 extra-base hits.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, CLE (AAA)
(AAA) 313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442

Seemingly on the cusp of reaching the Majors to start this season, Manzardo instead spent the year in Triple-A and on the injured list. A contact-oriented hitter with a hefty fly ball rate, his approach should play up at Progressive Field. It also yields predictably low BABIPs. Manzardo’s batted ball profile is that of a slugger, but he’s yet to turn that into on-field results. The peripherals are in place for a breakthrough 2024 campaign. The Guardians have an extremely left-handed lineup which could affect how the club plans to use Manzardo.

Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 52 PA, .267/.365/.356

Another Rays product whose 2022 performance outshined his 2023 follow-up, Mead is currently serving as a platoon bat. A slugger by reputation, Mead has yet to homer in his debut season. He also contributed only nine dingers in 278 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s struggled to make consistent contact as evidenced by his 84.0 mph average exit velocity. The only qualified hitter with a worse average EV is Esteury Ruiz. Likely, Mead will make the necessary adjustments to produce spicier balls in play. It’s not uncommon for prospects to make unexpectedly weak contact in their first exposure to the Majors. Mead’s long-term outlook depends upon him finding 30-homer power.

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (A)
131 PA, 2 HR, 6 SB, .252/.366/.351

This year, perhaps no prospect has lost more clout than Jones. A Top 10 prospect entering the season, he’s now at risk of falling off Top 50 lists. Injuries cost his entire 2022 season and most of 2023. Early in the season, he struggled mightily. The good news: there is a silver lining. Since returning to action on August 1, Jones is batting .274/.389/.400 with a tolerable 24.8 percent strikeout rate. His speed and double-plus outfield defense have been on display as well. While Jones has been leapfrogged by other worthy names, he appears to be back on a positive developmental track.

Samuel Basallo, 18, C, BAL (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 483 PA, 20 HR, 12 SB, .313/.402/.551

Basallo began the year as a young power-over-hit catcher with a questionable defensive reputation. He appeared to be half a decade away from a debut – if it ever came at all. He’s now played his way onto Top 100 lists as the latest Orioles breakout. Basallo is built like a first baseman, and it’s where I expect to see him long-term. I believe it’s telling the Orioles have opted to promote him based on the development of his bat rather than his glove. Most catchers meander through the minors as they hone their defensive chops. Concerns about his hit tool appear to be overstated. Given his raw power, he looks likely to make enough contact to float at first base. Fine adjustments might determine whether he’s Rowdy Tellez redux or a first-division starter. In the grand tradition of Carlos Delgado and Kyle Schwarber, Basallo might get some play at catcher before the Orioles bow to necessity.

Three More

Ricardo Cabrera, CIN (18): The latest intriguing shortstop in the Reds system, Cabrera recovered from a disappointing 2022 season by hitting .346/.475/.531 in 202 plate appearances split between the complex and Low-A. He’s already a Top 100 prospect candidate who should find himself in High-A next season.

Yordanny Monegro, BOS (20): The most exciting pitcher to pop in the Red Sox system this year, Monegro combines a number of traits that portend a big league future. He’s built like a starter, misses bats, and can move the ball around the zone. He finished the season in High-A after dominating Low-A where he was old for the level.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz was among the minor league leaders in home runs. His breakout campaign included 33 dingers, mostly at High-A. Not considered much of a prospect entering the season, he should now comfortably rank within the Top 200. He has a chance to reach the Top 100 with a fast start at Double-A in 2024.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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