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Jose Quintana’s Resurgence Sets Up Intriguing Trip To Free Agency

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When the Pirates inked veteran starter Jose Quintana to a one-year, $2MM deal last November, it generated little fanfare. After a couple of rough seasons, Quintana was no longer viewed as a reliable starting option and expectations on the 33-year-old were minimal. However, the Pirates’ modest bet on Quintana paid off handsomely, as the southpaw will go down as one of the better free agent signings of the 2021-22 offseason.

Quintana turned in 165 2/3 innings of 2.93 ERA ball across 32 starts, 20 of those came with the Pirates before he was traded to the division rival Cardinals at the trade deadline. Only 16 pitchers had a better fWAR than Quintana’s 4.0 total, and Quintana will certainly get some votes as NL Comeback Player of the Year.

Quintana has been a workhorse for much of his career, beginning with four straight seasons of 200+ innings with the White Sox from 2013-16. Much more than just an innings-eater, Quintana posted a 3.35 ERA over that four-season stretch, highlighted by a 2016 season that saw him make the All-Star team and finish tenth in AL Cy Young Award voting. The White Sox weren’t in contention during this period, and with a rebuild in progress, Quintana became one of the most sought-after arms on the market. The Sox held onto the left-hander until July 2017, before dealing Quintana to the crosstown Cubs for four prospects — including Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez.

It’s a trade that still generates some hard feelings in Wrigleyville, as Jimenez and Cease have blossomed into stars for the White Sox and Quintana’s production took a step back as a Cub. He posted a 4.24 ERA over his 439 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2017-20, and thumb surgery and a lat injury limited him to just 10 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, marking the first significant injury absences of Quintana’s career.

Hitting free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, the Angels signed Quintana to a one-year, $8MM deal, hoping that he could bounce back and help solidify the rotation. Unfortunately, Quintana pitched his way out of their rotation altogether with an unsightly 8.23 ERA in ten starts. He fared slightly better in their bullpen, but the Angels cut ties with the lefty in August 2021, and Quintana didn’t have much success in five relief appearances with the Giants after San Francisco claimed him off waivers.

So, where did it go wrong? For one, the 2021 version of Quintana was a statistical outlier from the rest of his career, as both his strikeout rate (28.6%) and walk rate (11.8%) were far above his career averages. Chasing the extra missed bats seemed to make Quintana a bit more of a predictable pitcher, especially since he also cut back on the use of his slider and started throwing a (mostly ineffective) changeup more often. As a result, batters were teeing off on Quintana’s offering, resulting in a career-worst home run rate.

To be fair, Quintana was also hampered by some bad luck in 2021, as his 3.94 SIERA took a far more favorable view of his performance than his 6.43 ERA. While Quintana didn’t help himself by allowing more homers and a ton of hard contact, he also didn’t get much assistance from the Angels’ mediocre defense, as evidenced by his huge .378 BABIP. (Angels pitchers had a collective .305 BABIP in 2021, the third-highest total in all of baseball.)

With a better Pirates defense behind him, Quintana got back on track this season. Quintana stuck with more or less the same mix of pitchers, though he has cut back on his fastball usage and leaned more heavily on his off-speed stuff. The lower fastball usage turned Quintana’s four-seamer into one of the most effective pitches thrown by any hurler in 2022, with a -17 Run Value according to Statcast.

Quintana’s strikeout (20.2%) and walk (6.9%) rates also returned to around his career norms, and his problems with the long ball almost entirely disappeared — his 5.3% homer rate was the lowest of his career, and his eight total home runs allowed were the lowest of any qualified pitcher in baseball. After finishing in only the sixth percentile of all pitchers in hard-contact percentage in 2021, Quintana zoomed back above average in 2022, as his 35.8% mark put him in the 68th percentile.

This production led to plenty of interest at the trade deadline, and St. Louis ended up landing both Quintana and reliever Chris Stratton in exchange for right-hander Johan Oviedo and minor league third baseman Malcom Nunez. It was a nice return for the Pirates for a rental player, and the Cardinals were surely satisfied with their end of the deal. Quintana posted a 2.01 ERA over his 62 2/3 innings after the trade, helping the Cards capture the NL Central. The southpaw then added 5 1/3 shutout innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, though a ninth-inning bullpen meltdown cost St. Louis the victory.

Given this success, Quintana looks like a solid bet to receive a multi-year contract in free agency this winter, though plenty of factors will weigh into the size of that deal. He turns 34 in January, and teams won’t forget about his 2020-21 struggles just because he turned things around this year. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted in his preview of the Cardinals’ offseason, Quintana is an option to return to St. Louis, but the Cardinals may opt to pursue cheaper pitching options in favor of a bigger splash elsewhere on the roster. Still, Quintana’s return to form makes him an attractive target for any number of teams who need quality and durability in the rotation.

Tommy Hunter Wants To Keep Pitching, Open To Return To Mets

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Veteran reliever Tommy Hunter is keen to keep playing, and is interested in a return to the Mets, according to Tim Healey of Newsday.

“I love the game. I loved it here. We’ll see what happens. I think I’m still decently good at the game. And there’s an argument to keep going. My kids love it. As long as they say I can play, them I’m going to keep playing,” Hunter said.

Hunter, 36, made 18 appearances out of the Mets bullpen, pitching to a 2.42 ERA across 22 1/3 innings. Advanced metrics were less enthused about Hunter’s performance, as his FIP sat at 4.28, but his strikeout (23.4%) and walk (6.4%) rates were largely in line with his career numbers, and while his home run rate did jump a bit, it’s perhaps unfair to attribute too much meaning to that given the smaller sample size.

It was the second stint in Queens for Hunter, who pitched eight innings for the Mets in 2021 before going on the injured list for the remainder of the season with a lower back injury, including during his time with the Rays after he was dealt there in the Rich Hill trade. Hunter also twice spent time on the injured list this season with lower back tightness. Injuries have long been a problem for the talented pitcher, and he’s dealt with forearm, calf and hamstring strains dating back to 2017.

However, there’s no denying Hunter’s ability when fit, and his career 3.18 ERA as a reliever across seven teams is evidence of that. Given he finished the season on the injured list, there’ll be some concerns about his health, but he should still have interest from bullpen-hungry teams given the results.

Andrés Giménez Played Through Injury, Won’t Require Surgery

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Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez played through a non-displaced fracture in his left thumb for the past month, Zach Meisel of The Athletic reports. Unlike fellow Guardians infielder Jose Ramirez, who underwent off-season surgery for his thumb injury, Giménez won’t require surgery on his thumb.

The 24-year-old put up easily the best season of his young career, amassing 6.1 fWAR and establishing himself as a star in Cleveland. Giménez posted a .297/.371/.466 slashline with 17 home runs in 2022, as he hit the ball harder than previous seasons, while also cutting his strikeout rate by around 5% to 20.1% and lifting his walk rate to 6.1%. Long viewed as an elite gloveman at either shortstop or second base, Giménez was worth 16 Defensive Runs Saved, 12 Outs Above Average and had a 6.5 UZR. The fact he did this while playing through an injury for a chunk of the season makes it all the more impressive.

Having struggled to a .218/.282/.351 line across 210 plate appearances in 2021 after coming across from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade, Giménez’ breakout in 2022 certainly makes Cleveland fans feel better about that trade and gives the team yet another superstar infielder to build around. While his efforts won’t be enough to get past Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP honors this year, he’ll certainly receive a number of votes, and the Guardians will be hoping he remains in the conversation for many years to come.

Beau Burrows Elects Free Agency

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After being sent outright to Triple-A by the Dodgers, pitcher Beau Burrows has elected free agency, per his MLB transactions page. As Burrows has already been outrighted more than once in his career, he had the opportunity to reject the assignment and opt for free agency.

Burrows, 26, pitched the entire 2022 season at the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate Oklahoma, posting a 7.18 ERA across 100 1/3 innings. He initially worked out of the starting rotation, but his struggles saw him demoted to the bullpen. As has been the case for much of his short career, he struggled to keep the ball in the park, surrendering 18 home runs during the season. He also walked batters 20% of the time against a 12.7% strikeout rate.

The 2015 first-round pick for Detroit has had brief stints in the majors for both the Tigers and Twins in 2020 and 2021. Neither of those stints proved successful, as he pitched to a combined 10.70 ERA across 17 2/3 innings with eight home runs given up in that time.

The former top-100 prospect will hit the open market and hope to latch on with another team as a minor league depth option in 2023.

Marlins Managerial Rumors: Espada, Quatraro, Weiss

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TODAY: Braves bench coach Walt Weiss turned down an interview request from the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.  Weiss posted a 283-365 record as the Rockies’ manager from 2013-16, and he just completed his fourth season as Atlanta’s bench coach.  A 14-year Major League veteran best known for his time with the great Athletics teams of the late 80’s and early 90’s, Weiss spent a season with the Marlins in 1993, playing on the team’s inaugural roster.

OCTOBER 20: Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro have landed a second interview for the vacant Marlins managerial post, according to Craig Mish of SportsGrid. It was reported last week that Espada was interviewing for the position for the first time, but it’s the first reporting of the Marlins interest in Quatraro. Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol is the other known interviewee, although it’s unclear if he was asked back for a second time. Mish notes that a number of additional interviews have not been reported, so while there may well be a number of other candidates in play, the fact that Espada and Quatraro are interviewing a second time indicates they are starting to narrow down their search.

Both Espada and Quatraro have long been viewed as managers-in-waiting, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times suggests Quatraro could also be in the mix for the vacant Royals, White Sox and Rangers jobs. Espada, meanwhile, has already interviewed for the White Sox position.

It’s not the first season that Espada, 47, has drawn managerial interest. The Puerto Rico native has been a respected member of the Astros coaching staff since 2017, and has had interest from the Mets, Cubs, A’s, Twins and Giants in recent years.

Similarly, Quatraro, 48, is heading into yet another off-season where his name is heavily linked with managerial posts. The A’s, Giants and Pirates were linked with Quatraro in recent years, while it was reported he was a finalist for the Mets position last year before they opted for Buck Showalter.

Rich Hill, Red Sox Have “Mutual Interest” In Reunion

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Rich Hill revealed on The Bradfo Sho podcast earlier this week that he’s had preliminary talks with the Red Sox about a return to Boston next season, saying that the two sides have “mutual interest” in a deal. Hill, 42, will be a free agent at the conclusion of the post-season.

“We’ve talked and had lunch with a few of the guys in the front office, and understand that there’s a mutual interest there,” Hill said. “Being able to stay home would be great.”

The Massachusetts native signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox last December, and turned in 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball across 26 starts. Despite being the oldest active player in the majors, Hill didn’t show any signs of decline in 2022, and advanced metrics were all largely in line with his past few years of work. His strikeout rate dipped slightly from 22.7% in 2021 to 20.7% in 2022, but there were no major changes to his velocity and the lefty walked fewer batters as well (7% in ’22 down from 8.3% in ’21). He did miss a month in July due to a knee strain, and while there’s always some durability concern with a player entering their age-43 season, he’s still made 57 starts in the past two seasons.

Given the state of the Red Sox’ rotation and the fact that Hill lives in the Boston area, it’s no surprise that the two sides are interested in getting a deal done. Nick Pivetta is the most reliable starter under contract for next year, while rookie Brayan Bello showed promise in his 11 starts, but beyond that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha combined for 43 starts in 2022, but they join Hill as pending free agents. Former ace Chris Sale is a lock to opt in to the remaining two years, $55MM on his contract (with a $20MM vesting option in ’25), but he’s made just 11 starts in the past three seasons and while he’s expected to be fit for spring training, his injury history is a concern. The team turned to youngsters Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski for starts at points last season, but none is guaranteed to be a rotation option in 2023.

Ultimately, if the Red Sox are looking to compete in a crowded AL East they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. While Hill going into his age-43 season is not the big splash Sox fans may be hoping for, the team will surely need more than one starting pitcher addition, so a reunion with the veteran would solidify the rotation and likely wouldn’t come at a huge financial cost.

Christian Vazquez Eyeing More Playing Time

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Astros catcher Christian Vazquez will be a free agent this off-season, and has indicated his biggest priority will be finding a team willing to hand him the starting job.

Vazquez, 32, started 24 of a possible 58 matches after being traded from the Red Sox to Houston for minor leaguers Wilyer Abreu and Enmanuel Valdez on deadline day. The team usually opts for Martin Maldonado to catch Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers, meaning starts for Vazquez haven’t been as plentiful as in Boston.

“It was hard and it’s still hard,” Vazquez told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “But I’ll be a free agent after the postseason and I can choose where I want to go. Everybody knows that.”

The Puerto Rico native had been with the Red Sox since being drafted in the ninth round in 2008, and had been their starting catcher since 2018. He put together a combined .262/.311/.389 line during his time in Boston, and graded out as an above-average catcher defensively. His bat and ball skills are well measured, but he’s also widely regarded as a strong leader and positive clubhouse presence, too. Vazquez’ offensive numbers dropped significantly after the trade, and he hit just .250/.278/.308 across 108 plate appearances, but given the sudden drop in playing time perhaps it’s forgivable that Vazquez struggled to find consistency initially. Nonetheless, he’ll figure to do well in free agency as one of the better catchers available.

Bat-first catcher Willson Contreras headlines the catching free agents, but Vazquez is arguably the second best option available. With Maldonado under contract in Houston for another year, it seems likely that Vazquez will look for a new team to give him the playing time he seeks. While almost any team could do with a well-rounded catcher like Vazquez, a return to the Red Sox would be something he’d welcome.

“I hope so. I’d love it. It was my [house] for a long time,” Vázquez said. “We’ll see how it goes.”

Reese McGuire impressed down the stretch for the Red Sox, but Kevin Plawecki is a free agent and Connor Wong struggled in his small sample of playing time so the Red Sox do figure to be active in the catching market this off-season. Ultimately though, with the Mets, Twins, Rays, Cardinals, Brewers, Guardians, and White Sox among the contending teams that could be seeking upgrades at the position Vazquez is likely to have plenty of interest.

Orioles Outright Louis Head

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The Orioles have sent reliever Louis Head outright to Triple-A Norfolk, per his transactions page at MLB.com. Head was designated for assignment by the team on Friday.

Head, 32, was claimed off waivers by the Orioles in July after spending the first half of the season in Miami. Originally an 18th round selection by Cleveland back in 2012, Head spent nine years in the minor leagues before the Rays gave him a shot in the big leagues in last year.

At Tampa Bay, Head pitched to a 2.31 ERA across 35 innings. While he was never a big strikeout guy, Head kept the walks and home runs in check to provide strong innings out of the Rays bullpen, although he also benefited from a .216 opponent batting average on balls in play. The Marlins to acquired him in the off-season, but the results went south after the trade. Head’s walk rate jumped significantly to 9.9% while his home run rate more than doubled from his time at the Rays. As a result, he pitched to a 7.23 ERA across 23 2/3 innings before the Marlins exposed him to waivers in July.

Head only pitched five innings in Baltimore, but struggled in his time at Triple-A Norfolk as well, pitching to a 7.04 ERA. While Head has less than three years of service time and is being outrighted for the first time, as a player who has spent parts of seven seasons in the minor leagues, he can elect free agency.

Twins Outright Devin Smeltzer, Jhon Romero

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The Twins have continued a busy few days of 40-man roster management, outrighting pitchers Jhon Romero and Devin Smeltzer after the pair cleared waivers, the team announced. Romero was outrighted to the minors, while Smeltzer elected free agency, per his MLB.com transaction log. It comes after the team recently lost outfielder Jake Cave, catcher Caleb Hamilton and infielder Jermaine Palacios on waivers.

Smeltzer, 27, tossed 70 1/3 innings of 3.71 ERA ball across 12 starts and three relief appearances for the Twins this season. Advanced metrics were less impressed with Smeltzer’s work, and his FIP sat at 5.23. The lefty struck out just 13.9% of batters this season while giving up walks 6.6% of the time.

The Twins acquired Smeltzer from the Dodgers in 2018 in the Brian Dozier deal, and he’s logged 140 innings of work through parts of four seasons as a swingman. Smeltzer’s out of minor league options and having already been outrighted previously in his career, he had the option to elect free agency after passing through waivers. It seems likely he’ll land somewhere on a minor league deal as pitching depth.

Romero, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Nationals during spring training and pitched out of the Twins bullpen to start the season, logging just five innings of 3.60 ERA relief before going down with what would wind up being season-ending biceps tendinitis on April 23. Romero was signed as an international free agent out of Colombia by the Cubs in 2015, and was traded to the Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler deadline deal in 2018.

He throws a fastball, slider, changeup mix and struck out roughly a third of the batters faced as he came up through the minors. Romero’s spent most of the season on the 60-day IL, meaning he wasn’t occupying a spot on the 40-man roster. There remains no clear timeline on his recovery, but regardless of his injury status the Twins would have needed to add him back to the 40 man before the start of the offseason.

Following their recent bevy of moves, the Twins’ 40-man roster now stands at 36 players.

Marlins Interview Joe Espada, Pedro Grifol For Manager

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The Marlins will interview Astros bench coach Joe Espada for their vacant manager position today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets. He’s the second known candidate to interview, after The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted that Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol had also interviewed with the Marlins.

Espada, 47, was drafted in the second round of the 1996 draft by the Athletics and spent nine seasons in the minors. He made it as high as Triple-A but never got received a call up to the major leagues. After retiring in 2007, he quickly turned to coaching and held coaching and front office positions with the Marlins and Yankees before being named Astros bench coach in 2017.

Espada is a well respected member of the Astros coaching staff and has long been considered a manager in waiting. He’s already been interviewed by numerous major league teams and was a finalist for the recent Mets and Giants vacancies.

He’ll join Grifol as the only other known candidate to have an interview. It had already been reported that his current employers, the Royals, as well as the White Sox have interest in him, but the Marlins are the first known team to have given him an interview. Grifol, 53 next month, has followed a similar career trajectory to Espada. He spent nine seasons in the Mets and Twins minor leagues systems without reaching the majors, but has found success as a coach. He’s been with the Royals since 2013 but, like Espada, has been a candidate for a number of vacant managerial posts, including the recent Tigers and Orioles positions.

The Marlins are seeking a new manager after mutually agreeing to part with Don Mattingly at the end of the 2022 season. Mattingly led the team for seven seasons, but their 31-29 finish in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season was the only time they had a winning record during his tenure.

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