Cubs, Dixon Machado Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs are bringing infielder Dixon Machado back on a minor league contract, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. It’ll be the Octagon client’s third stint with the organization. He also played for the Cubs in both 2019 and 2022, spending the interim two seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization.
Machado, 32, spent the 2023-24 seasons in the Astros system but wasn’t called to the majors with Houston. He slashed .230/.369/.356 in 293 Triple-A plate appearances in 2023 and hit .228/.335/.305 in 202 minor league plate appearances last year.
Though Machado has twice been a part of the Cubs organization previously, he’s never played in a big league game for them. His most recent MLB work came with the 2022 Giants, and the rest of his MLB tenure has been spent in a Tigers uniform. The Venezuelan-born shortstop has played in 177 major league games and batted .226/.285/.292 in 522 turns at the plate. Though he’s never provided much value with the bat, he does have good contact skills, evidenced by an 18.4% strikeout rate in the majors and just a 14.4% rate in the minors last year.
Machado is a versatile defender who’s typically been capable of playing quality defense at any of shortstop, second base or third base. Since signing out of Venezuela as a teenager, he’s played more than 12,000 professional innings at shortstop (majors, minors and KBO combined). He’s also logged close to 1300 innings at second base and more than 300 at third.
The Cubs’ infield in 2025 figures to include Michael Busch at first base, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at short and top prospect Matt Shaw at third base. Veteran Jon Berti was signed to a big league deal to take a utility role. Rule 5 pick Gage Workman and out-of-options former top prospect Vidal Brujan are both on the 40-man roster, but neither is any kind of lock to make the team. Non-roster options for backup jobs in the infield include Nicky Lopez (who signed a minor league deal) and James Triantos, another top prospect in a loaded Cubs farm system.
Astros Notes: Altuve, Framber, Roster Moves
The door for an Alex Bregman reunion in Houston closed this week when the former No. 2 overall pick agreed to an opt-out laden three-year deal in Boston. However, the notion of Jose Altuve playing some left field — a concept first floated when the Astros reengaged with Bregman late in the offseason — remains in play even with Bregman headed to the Red Sox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that even without Bregman, there are plans for Altuve to get some work in left field in at least a part-time capacity.
At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.
The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.
Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.
Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez‘s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)
That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.
Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ‘Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.
Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.
Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.
At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”
Phillies Sign Oscar Mercado To Minor League Deal
The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Oscar Mercado to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp this spring. He’s represented by Excel Sports Management. Philadelphia also confirmed its signing of infielder Christian Arroyo to a minor league deal and invitation to camp, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported yesterday.
The 30-year-old Mercado will give the Phillies a right-handed bat to join their outfield competition. He’s a veteran of five big league seasons who most recently appeared with the Cardinals in 2023, when he hit .290/.313/.387 in 20 games.
A 2013 second-round pick by the Cards, Mercado had a big rookie showing with Cleveland (who picked him up via trade) back in 2019, slashing .269/.318/.443 with 15 homers and 15 steals in 482 plate appearances. He’s yet to replicate that production in the majors but brings some speed and good bat-to-ball skills (career 19% strikeout rate) to the Phillies’ non-roster group this spring. In 973 major league plate appearances, Mercado is a .237/.289/.388 hitter. He can play all three outfield spots and has plus grades in center (10 Defensive Runs Saved, 7 Outs Above Average) in 951 big league innings there.
Mercado split the 2024 season between the Triple-A clubs for the Padres and Tigers, batting a combined .222/.308/.415 with a dozen homers and a 16-for-20 showing in stolen base attempts. He’s played in parts of six Triple-A seasons and tallied 1787 plate appearances there, with a .266/.347/.434 slash to show for his efforts.
The Phillies’ outfield right now includes Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos, Johan Rojas and, to a lesser extent, utilityman Weston Wilson. The general expectation has been that Kepler and Castellanos would handle the corners, with Marsh and Rojas forming a platoon in center. Mercado creates some competition for Rojas in that regard. He’s a career .254/.309/.406 hitter against lefties, whereas Rojas carries a .258/.285/.340 output versus southpaws. Kepler has rough-looking career marks against lefties as well, though his production in recent years suggests he’s made considerable strides against southpaws; since 2022, he’s posted a roughly average .254/.319/.396 line against lefties (102 wRC+).
Latest On Yankees, Marcus Stroman
Feb. 14: Stroman reported to camp this morning. Both he and Boone have spoken with reporters about the right-hander’s arrival (all subsequent video links via SNY). Stroman, notably, when asked about the potential of pitching in the bullpen, decisively stated, “I’m a starter.” Asked whether that was a message to general manager Brian Cashman, Stroman said that was not the case but rather just a statement based on his track record and his offseason work to prepare himself to be available every fifth day.
Both Stroman and Boone pointed out the folly of assuming anything regarding the health of an entire rotation so early in camp, with Boone joking: “First of all, happy Valentine’s Day. It’s February 14. You’re getting way ahead of this. We’re building him up to be a starting pitcher. That’s so far out there. Obviously, we’ll address anything we have to when we get into certain situations, but right now the focus is on getting him ready.”
Boone added that he doesn’t envision the Yankees going to a six-man rotation but wouldn’t rule it out entirely. He noted that the Yankees have 10 to 11 pitchers who are preparing as starting pitchers this spring, adding: “Who knows how many of them you’re going to have to use right away?”
Feb. 13: The Yankees’ signing of Max Fried pushed Marcus Stroman out of the team’s rotation, effectively bumping him down to seventh starter. Even after sending Nestor Cortes to Milwaukee in the trade that netted closer Devin Williams, Stroman was sixth on the team’s depth chart. The Yankees have spent much of the offseason looking for a trade partner, but to no avail. Stroman is not only owed $18.5MM this coming season but would unlock an $18.5MM player option for the 2026 season if he pitches 140 innings in 2025.
The ongoing trade saga has created plenty of chatter about Stroman already this winter, but the opening of spring camps creates a bit more intrigue. Stroman hasn’t been with the team for the past two days of workouts. SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the 33-year-old did take his physical for the club already. Stroman isn’t holding out, per Martino, but rather is taking a few extra days, which is permissible under the collective bargaining agreement.
Manager Aaron Boone downplayed the issue, stating that he and Stroman had a “very good” conversation and that the right-hander is in a good spot (video links via SNY). Stroman isn’t missing any mandatory dates; even though pitchers and catchers technically began reporting this week, the CBA stipulates that Feb. 22 is the mandatory report date. Workouts and practices thus far have technically been optional/voluntary. Boone was asked today if Stroman’s absence from camp was in any way disappointing.
“Obviously I want all of our players here, clearly,” said Boone. “That said, I’m comfortable with where he’s at physically and mentally. He’s a prideful player. This is a guy that’s had a great career. It’s a little bit of an awkward situation, obviously. So, of course I want him here. I’m trying to keep nudging him to get him here, but again, you also have to respect the fact that this is something that players are allowed to do. There’s a mandatory [report] date.”
It’s possible Yankees general manager Brian Cashman could find a trade partner in the coming days, but it’s likelier that Stroman will simply report to camp and begin progressing through his standard spring schedule. As camp progresses, injuries with the Yankees or with a potential trade partner could change the veteran Stroman’s current situation. Were it not for the ongoing trade efforts and a free agent signing that bumped him from the team’s rotation plans, the optics of him missing an extra couple days early in camp wouldn’t be as notable.
Stroman signed a two-year, $37MM deal in the Bronx last winter. He got out to an excellent start in pinstripes, pitching to a 2.60 ERA through his first dozen starts. He hit a cold spell in June, and while Stroman had a couple more pockets of strong outings, his overall ERA from June 1 onward checked in at 5.70. He finished the season with a 4.31 ERA in 154 2/3 frames. A disproportionate amount of the damage versus Stroman came at home and against left-handed batters. Stroman held righties to a .260/.327/.391 slash and logged a 3.09 earned run average on the road. Lefties torched him for a .296/.372/.474 slash, however, and he was rocked for a 5.31 ERA at Yankee Stadium, where he allowed 15 of his 19 home runs on the season.
Phillies, Christian Arroyo Agree To Minor League Deal
The Phillies have signed infielder Christian Arroyo to a minor league deal, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. The O’Connell Sports Management client will head to major league camp as a non-roster invitee.
Arroyo, 29, once ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects but never found his footing as a regular with the Giants, Rays or Red Sox. He’s a career .252/.299/.394 hitter in 992 plate appearances in the big leagues. Those numbers generally mirror the former first-round pick’s results in parts of seven seasons in Triple-A, where he carries a .255/.319/.403 line in 661 turns at the plate. The right-handed-hitting Arroyo has even platoon splits throughout his career.
Defensively, Arroyo has spent the bulk of his time in the majors at second base, but has has experience at all four infield spots and in right field. Defensive Runs Saves pegs him as a strong defender at second base, while Statcast has him around average. In the minors, Arroyo has played more shortstop than second base and also has nearly 1500 innings at third base.
Arroyo played in the majors in each season from 2017-23 but didn’t reach the big leagues in 2024. He spent last season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club, hitting .237/.305/.360 in a disappointing year at the plate. With the Phillies, he’ll compete for a bench spot and likely head to Triple-A Lehigh Valley if he doesn’t win a job. Backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, out-of-options infielder Edmundo Sosa and standout defensive outfielder Johan Rojas seem like they’ll occupy three of the four spots. Weston Wilson, Buddy Kennedy (also out of options) and Kody Clemens are all on the 40-man roster and in the running for the final spot.
Mets Likely Done Adding, Not Expected To Bring Back Jose Iglesias
An active offseason for the Mets looks to be largely completed. President of baseball operations David Stearns suggested during a session with the team’s beat yesterday that the Alonso deal was likely the team’s final big splash (video link via the Mets). Asked if felt he was done with major additions, Stearns replied:
“I think so. We’re always going to be involved in conversations. We’re always going to be trying to see if there are ways we can get better. We also feel really good about the group we have that’s reporting right now, and I would anticipate, by and large, that this is the team we’re going forward with.”
While it’s not a decisive declaration that there are no further transactions on the horizon, it seems likeliest that those would come via non-roster invitation. The Mets possesses a veteran roster that’s largely made up of players with five-plus years of MLB service or players who’ve exhausted their minor league options. Further veteran signings/acquisitions could exacerbate what’s already some fairly limited roster flexibility. Stearns’ response when asked whether the team was moving on from infielder Jose Iglesias is rather telling, in that regard:
“I think where we are now, for that role on our team, it’s important for us to keep some avenues open for some of our younger players. We think it’s important for us to have some roster flexibility with that spot. It’s really tough to freeze your entire position player roster. We did that for a portion last year, and we actually kind of got away with it, but there very easily could’ve been a circumstance where we got stuck with a completely frozen position player roster, so having some flexibility there in that role is, frankly, probably needed for us right now.”
That’s a disappointing reply for Mets fans who fell in love with Iglesias in what proved to be a renaissance campaign for the 35-year-old. Originally signed to a minor league deal, Iglesias was summoned to the majors at the end of May and became not only a highly productive role player but a fan and clubhouse favorite thanks to his OMG song that became a rallying cry. In 85 games, Iglesias took 291 plate appearances and batted .337/.381/.448. However, that production was way out of sync with his career norms (.279/.319/.382 entering the season) and was buoyed by a sky-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not likely to repeat.
Beyond some justifiable questions about Iglesias’ ability to sustain his 2024 output, the “flexibility” aspect of Stearns’ reply is worth drilling into a bit further. Right now, the only member of the Mets’ projected lineup who can be optioned to Triple-A is catcher Francisco Alvarez. They’ll have three bench players — backup catcher Luis Torrens, backup outfielder Tyrone Taylor and outfielder/DH Starling Marte — who cannot be optioned. (Outfielder Jose Azocar is also out of options, so he’ll need to earn a roster spot or else be DFA later in camp.)
Adding Iglesias would create a fourth, effectively “freezing” the team’s entire group of position players, as Stearns suggested. That could be a reason the team opted to bring infielder Nick Madrigal into the mix. He provides similar bat-to-ball skills and infield versatility but also has a minor league option remaining, which will create more flexibility as the season wears on.
It’s similar on the pitching staff. Kodai Senga and David Peterson are the only starters who can be optioned. Reed Garrett is the only member of the projected ‘pen who can be optioned. Each of Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Ryne Stanek, Jose Butto, Griffin Canning, Danny Young and Sean Reid-Foley is either out of options or past five years of MLB service.
That lack of flexibility is magnified when there’s a player in the lineup who perhaps needs two to four days off but probably not a full IL stint. It’s also notable when a specific reliever or the relief corps as a whole is overworked and the team would like to add a fresh arm to the mix. There could very well be some uncomfortable DFAs on the horizon for the Mets, though injuries or poor spring performances can make those decisions easier.
If the Mets are indeed done, they’ll enter the 2025 season with the game’s No. 2 payroll, trailing only the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles. Stearns noted that he and owner Steve Cohen mapped out various scenarios regarding their potential payroll early in the offseason, and the point at which the Mets have now landed was toward the highest ranges the pair discussed at the time. RosterResource projects the Mets for a $331MM payroll, with $325MM on their luxury-tax ledger.
Reds Sign Scott Barlow
February 13: The Reds officially announced Barlow’s deal today. Right-hander Julian Aguiar was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. Aguiar had Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season. Per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, Barlow’s deal breaks down as a $1.5MM salary and $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option for 2026.
February 11: The Reds and free agent reliever Scott Barlow are in agreement on a one-year, $2.5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Warner Sports client’s agreement is still pending the completion of a physical.
Barlow, 32, was brilliant for the Royals from 2021-22, pitching to a combined 2.30 earned run average with a 28.2% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate en route to tallying 40 saves and 20 holds. He’s taken a couple steps back in the two seasons since, providing a still-serviceable 4.32 ERA but diminished velocity and strikeout/walk rates that have trended in the wrong direction.
The Guardians, who had MLB’s best bullpen in 2024, wound up designating Barlow for assignment and releasing him in mid-September. He’d have been postseason-ineligible with a new club at that point and was ticketed to go back into free agency following the season, so he didn’t end up signing with a new club.
Last year’s 91.4 mph average four-seamer with the Guardians was a career-low for Barlow, sitting nearly four miles per hour shy of his average 95.3 mph from 2021. Since Opening Day 2023, he’s fanned 27% of his opponents against a 12% walk rate while suiting up for Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland.
Even with the reduced velocity and worsening command, there are still positives to take away from Barlow’s 2024 season. His 13.5% swinging-strike rate remained comfortably north of the 11.5% league average. He doesn’t induce chases off the plate as much as he did at his peak. His opponents’ contact rate when they do chase is south of 41%, placing him in the top-10 of all 169 qualified big league relievers in that department. His opponents’ 83.9% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple percentage points shy of average. Barlow’s four-seamer and sinker don’t have the life they used to, but his slider and curveball both miss bats at super premium rates and induce weak contact when opponents do put bat to ball.
Beyond those sharp breaking pitches and their ability to miss bats, Barlow offers a simpler benefit to manager Terry Francona: durability. The right-hander made his big league debut late in 2018 and has never been on the major league injured list. He’s made at least 61 appearances in each of the past five 162-game seasons and pitched in more than half the Royals’ 60 games (32) during the shortened 2020 campaign. Perhaps that heavy workload has contributed to his declining velocity, but Barlow is as durable as it gets for a reliever these days. Since 2019, only Hector Neris has appeared in more games than Barlow’s 359, and no reliever has more innings than Barlow’s 372.
Barlow will slot into a setup role in a reshaped Cincinnati bullpen. Alexis Diaz will reprise his role as closer, but setup man Fernando Cruz was sent to the Yankees in exchange for catcher Jose Trevino. The Reds picked up Taylor Rogers in a late trade with the Giants, too. Newcomers Rogers and Barlow will join holdovers Diaz, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll, Tony Santillan and Brent Suter. The final couple spots in the ‘pen will likely be determined in spring training. Former starters Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers are among the favorites — Spiers likely in swingman role — but the Reds have Yosver Zulueta and Lyon Richardson on the 40-man roster vying for spots as well (if Richardson isn’t in the Triple-A rotation). Non-roster options in camp include Alex Young, Ian Gibaut, Albert Abreu, Joe La Sorsa and Francona favorite (from their days in Cleveland) Bryan Shaw.
Andre Pallante Wins Arbitration Hearing Versus Cardinals
Right-hander Andre Pallante won his arbitration hearing against the Cardinals, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll be paid the $2.1MM sum he and his reps at Wasserman requested rather than the $1.925MM figure submitted by the team. Pallante was one of three Cardinals players to go to a hearing; the team won its hearing over utilityman Brendan Donovan and lost a hearing versus Lars Nootbaar. Both results were handed down yesterday.
Pallante, 26, worked his way into the St. Louis rotation last year and looks ticketed for a starting role again in 2025. The right-hander logged a 3.78 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and enormous 61.8% ground-ball rate in 121 1/3 innings over 29 appearances (20 starts). That 3.78 earned run average is a dead match for his career mark in what’s now a total of 297 1/3 innings.
This was Pallante’s first trip through arbitration. He’s picked up 2.145 years of big league service thus far, making him a Super Two player who’ll be arb-eligible four times rather than the standard three. The Cardinals can control him for four more years, all the way through 2028. He still has one minor league option remaining, though as long as he continues at the pace he’s established in his first three MLB seasons, that’s not going to come into play anytime soon.
Pallante figures to join Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz in the Cards’ Opening Day rotation — provided all are healthy. The Cardinals bought out 2025 club options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn but otherwise haven’t made any changes in the rotation — or really to the broader roster at large — despite a stated goal of getting younger and focusing on player development this coming season.
With Pallante’s salary now set, the Cardinals’ payroll checks in just shy of $148MM, per RosterResource. That’s a reduction of about $35MM, all of which was accomplished by parting with Gibson and Lynn and letting Paul Goldschmidt, Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton walk as free agents.
Padres Sign Kyle Hart
The Padres announced Thursday that they’ve signed lefty Kyle Hart to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2026 season. He’ll be guaranteed $1.5MM, per FanSided’s Robert Murray, coming in the form of a $1MM salary and a $500K buyout on a $5MM club option for the 2026 season. He can boost the value of that option to $7.5MM based on escalators tied to games started. According to The Associated Press, the option price would climb by $250K if Hart reaches 18 starts this year, $500K at 22 starts, $750K at 26 starts, and $1MM if he starts 30 games. There’s also a $250K assignment bonus in the event that he’s traded, MLBTR has learned.
Hart, a client of NPG Sports, enjoyed a breakout showing in the Korea Baseball Organization in 2024 and has drawn big league interest throughout the winter. He’s the second starter the Friars have added in as many days, as San Diego also came to terms on a four-year, $55MM deal with Nick Pivetta last night.
Hart, who turned 32 in November, was torched for 19 runs in 11 innings with the 2020 Red Sox, his lone MLB experience to date. He has a fairly nondescript 4.36 ERA in 334 2/3 Triple-A frames as well, but a move overseas and some changes to his pitch repertoire unlocked new reason for optimism.
Brandishing a new sweeper, a heavier reliance on his changeup and using his four-seamer more at the top of the zone in South Korea, Hart broke out with a 2.69 earned run average over 26 starts for the KBO’s NC Dinos. He racked up 157 innings, fanned 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a 6% clip. That performance earned him the Choi Dong-won Award — the KBO equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award.
Hart now joins fellow newcomer Pivetta and holdovers Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish in San Diego’s rotation mix. He could have to compete with Matt Waldron, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez for that fifth spot behind the four established veterans, but Hart at the very least seems like the front-runner to land that job.
It’s always possible that a trade changes the calculus, but the minimal 2025 commitments to Hart ($1.5MM), Pivetta ($4MM), Jason Heyward ($1MM) and Connor Joe ($1MM) over the past week have addressed several needs at bargain prices — at least for this year. (Pivetta will earn $19MM in 2026, $14MM in 2027 and $18MM in 2028.) Both Cease and King have popped up on the rumor mill this winter — Cease in particular — but as of this morning the Padres are reportedly planning to hold onto both. That can be revisited at the deadline if the season doesn’t play out as hoped. For the time being, the recent slate of cost-effective pickups seems to have filled various needs within the (very) tight confines of the payroll limitations president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been navigating throughout the winter.
The additions of Hart, Pivetta, Heyward and Joe over the past week have pushed San Diego’s payroll to a projected $207MM, per RosterResource. That’s an increase of nearly $40MM over last season’s end-of-year mark. The Friars have a projected $259MM worth of CBT obligations as well, placing them a hefty $18MM over the $241MM luxury threshold. However, since they reset their penalty level when they ducked under the tax line in 2024, they’ll be faced with only the minimum penalty: a 20% tax on their current overages. That’s about $3.6MM in penalties right now, and it’s possible trades of players other than Cease/King could yet reduce the bill. The Padres have been open to offers on reliever Robert Suarez, and they’d surely be open to offers on left-hander Wandy Peralta or infielder Jake Cronenworth, too, if it meant shedding a notable chunk of either player’s contract.
D-backs Sticking To Five-Man Rotation
The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes further crowded a rotation that had at least six starters in the mix. While there’s been talk of a possible six-man rotation in Arizona since that Burnes deal, manager Torey Lovullo said at D-backs camp this week that team is not considering that at this point (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).
That leaves the Diamondbacks with seven starters for five spots: Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson. The first four are largely locked into place. Burnes and Gallen are Cy Young-caliber arms when healthy. Kelly has been a steady midrotation arm for the Snakes since signing out of the KBO in the 2018-19 offseason. Rodriguez’s first year in Arizona was marred by injury, but he’s signed three more years and has a lengthy track record.
Montgomery’s status in Arizona has been a talking point throughout the winter. The Diamondbacks signed him to a one-year, $25MM contract with a vesting $20MM player option for the 2025 season. The left-hander pitched enough to trigger that option but nowhere near well enough to decline it in favor of a return to the open market. Signing just days before Opening Day last season, Montgomery missed spring training, rushed through an accelerated ramp-up in Triple-A and never appeared to be himself. He pitched 117 innings but was rocked for a 6.23 earned run average with career-worst walk and strikeout rates.
D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called Montgomery’s performance out late in the season, publicly lamenting the role that he’d played in bringing the left-hander to his organization. “I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it,” Kendrick said in September. “They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.”
Pfaadt, 26, would give the D-backs an upside arm at the back of the staff. The former top prospect hasn’t yet found his stride over a full big league season but has shown glimpses of the potential that made him so well regarded. He looked to have found his stride last year, logging a 3.98 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through his first 24 starts, but Pfaadt was hit hard in late August and for much of September. He mixed in one late-season gem — seven innings, one run, 12 strikeouts in Milwaukee — but even with that showing still posted an ERA north of 7.00 over his final eight starts. He finished the year at a 4.71 mark but did pile up 181 2/3 innings.
Nelson, who turned 27 in December, made 27 appearances this past season — 25 of them starts — and recorded 150 2/3 innings of 4.24 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging-strike rate were below average (well below, with regard to the latter), but Nelson’s 5.4% walk rate was outstanding.
There are other options on the 40-man roster, but they’re likely to be viewed as depth candidates, barring a spring breakout. Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry and Blake Walston are all on the 40-man roster and have all made their big league debuts, but they’d likely only be called upon in the event of multiple injuries — at least with the current roster construction.
Kendrick’s comments on Montgomery led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade of this winter, but no such deal has come to fruition. It’s still possible the D-backs could find a taker for a portion of the contract or swap him out for a comparably priced veteran on an underwater deal (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte), but for now, Montgomery will get a full spring buildup and look to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season.
If the D-backs can find some kind of trade that sheds a portion of the Montgomery money, any savings could be reallocated to other needs. Most notably, they’ve been in the market for a closer throughout the winter but have yet to add an established ninth-inning arm. Arizona’s payroll is projected for a franchise-record $195MM, per RosterResource. It’s not clear whether Kendrick is willing to push things further after already ponying up to sign Burnes (six years, $210MM), acquire Josh Naylor in a trade (one year, $10.9MM) and re-sign Randal Grichuk (one year, $5MM). Barring the signing of a veteran like David Robertson or Kyle Finnegan, the D-backs will look inward and lean on A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez and Kevin Ginkel as their top late-inning arms.