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Reds Sign Scott Barlow

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February 13: The Reds officially announced Barlow’s deal today. Right-hander Julian Aguiar was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. Aguiar had Tommy John surgery in October and will likely miss the entire 2025 season. Per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, Barlow’s deal breaks down as a $1.5MM salary and $1MM buyout on a $6.5MM club option for 2026.

February 11: The Reds and free agent reliever Scott Barlow are in agreement on a one-year, $2.5MM contract, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Warner Sports client’s agreement is still pending the completion of a physical.

Barlow, 32, was brilliant for the Royals from 2021-22, pitching to a combined 2.30 earned run average with a 28.2% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate en route to tallying 40 saves and 20 holds. He’s taken a couple steps back in the two seasons since, providing a still-serviceable 4.32 ERA but diminished velocity and strikeout/walk rates that have trended in the wrong direction.

The Guardians, who had MLB’s best bullpen in 2024, wound up designating Barlow for assignment and releasing him in mid-September. He’d have been postseason-ineligible with a new club at that point and was ticketed to go back into free agency following the season, so he didn’t end up signing with a new club.

Last year’s 91.4 mph average four-seamer with the Guardians was a career-low for Barlow, sitting nearly four miles per hour shy of his average 95.3 mph from 2021. Since Opening Day 2023, he’s fanned 27% of his opponents against a 12% walk rate while suiting up for Kansas City, San Diego and Cleveland.

Even with the reduced velocity and worsening command, there are still positives to take away from Barlow’s 2024 season. His 13.5% swinging-strike rate remained comfortably north of the 11.5% league average. He doesn’t induce chases off the plate as much as he did at his peak. His opponents’ contact rate when they do chase is south of 41%, placing him in the top-10 of all 169 qualified big league relievers in that department. His opponents’ 83.9% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple percentage points shy of average. Barlow’s four-seamer and sinker don’t have the life they used to, but his slider and curveball both miss bats at super premium rates and induce weak contact when opponents do put bat to ball.

Beyond those sharp breaking pitches and their ability to miss bats, Barlow offers a simpler benefit to manager Terry Francona: durability. The right-hander made his big league debut late in 2018 and has never been on the major league injured list. He’s made at least 61 appearances in each of the past five 162-game seasons and pitched in more than half the Royals’ 60 games (32) during the shortened 2020 campaign. Perhaps that heavy workload has contributed to his declining velocity, but Barlow is as durable as it gets for a reliever these days. Since 2019, only Hector Neris has appeared in more games than Barlow’s 359, and no reliever has more innings than Barlow’s 372.

Barlow will slot into a setup role in a reshaped Cincinnati bullpen. Alexis Diaz will reprise his role as closer, but setup man Fernando Cruz was sent to the Yankees in exchange for catcher Jose Trevino. The Reds picked up Taylor Rogers in a late trade with the Giants, too. Newcomers Rogers and Barlow will join holdovers Diaz, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll, Tony Santillan and Brent Suter. The final couple spots in the ’pen will likely be determined in spring training. Former starters Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers are among the favorites — Spiers likely in swingman role — but the Reds have Yosver Zulueta and Lyon Richardson on the 40-man roster vying for spots as well (if Richardson isn’t in the Triple-A rotation). Non-roster options in camp include Alex Young, Ian Gibaut, Albert Abreu, Joe La Sorsa and Francona favorite (from their days in Cleveland) Bryan Shaw.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Reds’ Julian Aguiar Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Reds righty Julian Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery on Friday, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Sheldon had reported earlier in the week that Aguiar underwent surgery before issuing a correction that the rookie pitcher was still evaluating his options.

The second opinion evidently didn’t allow the 23-year-old to avoid surgery. Aguiar will almost certainly miss the entire 2025 season. Assuming the Reds keep him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason, they can place him on the 60-day injured list at the start of Spring Training. He’d spend all of next season on the IL before returning to the 40-man during the winter.

Aguiar has developed from a 12th round pick out of a California junior college into one of Cincinnati’s better pitching prospects. Baseball America slotted the 6’3″ righty as the #9 prospect in the Reds system on their most recent organizational ranking. BA credits Aguiar with a plus changeup as the headlining pitch of an otherwise average arsenal. The outlet suggests he could profile as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Cincinnati called Aguiar up in the middle of August. He earned the promotion with a solid 3.79 earned run average across 116 1/3 innings between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. Aguiar didn’t have much success in his first look against big league competition. Opponents tagged him for a 6.25 ERA over seven starts. He surrendered eight home runs across 31 2/3 frames while struggling to miss bats. Aguiar generated swinging strikes at only an 8.1% clip, resulting in a well below-average 13.6% strikeout rate.

The Reds lost two potential back-end starters in the waning weeks of the season. Lefty Brandon Williamson also blew out in September and went for his own Tommy John procedure. The Reds still have a promising nucleus of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder and Andrew Abbott but will need to find reliability at the back of the rotation. Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are both expected to decline options and become free agents. Lowder has limited MLB experience, while Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers had rough seasons. The Reds could look for multiple starting pitchers during the offseason.

Reds’ Julian Aguiar Considering Tommy John Surgery

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9:19pm: Shelton issued a correction to his previous report (on X). Aguiar is considering undergoing Tommy John but has not yet undergone any procedure. He is getting a second opinion.

4:20pm: Reds right-hander Julian Aguiar recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2025 season, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com on X. Sheldon also relays that the club has fired three coaches: hitting coach Joel McKeithan as well as assistant hitting coaches Terry Bradshaw and Tim LaMonte.

Aguiar, 23, was able to make his major league debut this year. As the Reds dealt with multiple rotation injuries, he was selected to the big league roster in August. He made seven starts, allowing 6.25 earned runs per nine innings, before landing on the 15-day injured list in September due to a right elbow sprain. It now seems that the determination was made in the past few weeks that he would require surgery. Lefty Brandon Williamson also required Tommy John surgery last month, so that’s two Cincinnati hurlers that are now slated to miss the upcoming season.

It’s an unfortunate blow for him and the team. Given that Tommy John rehabs generally take 14 months or longer, Aguiar will miss the entire 2025 campaign, depriving the club of pitching depth and costing him a year of development. Aguiar is currently listed as the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America while FanGraphs had him at #7 in April. Both outlets consider him a possible backend starter someday, but that will have to wait until 2026 at the earliest.

A 12th-round pick from 2021, Aguiar has climbed the ladder since then. In 2024, in addition to his major league debut, he tossed 116 1/3 innings on the farm between Double-A and Triple-A. In that time, he had a 3.79 ERA, 19.7% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. If there’s one silver lining for Aguiar, it’s that he’ll collect major league pay and service time at least through the end of next year, assuming the Reds keep him on the roster through the winter.

Turning to the coaching staff, it was undoubtedly a disappointing year for the Cincinnati offense. The club had graduated a boatload of exciting position players in 2023 and the club had postseason aspirations going into 2024. But Cincinnati hitters put up a collective slash line of .231/.305/.388 in 2024. That production translated to a wRC+ of 87, putting them ahead of only the White Sox, Rockies, Pirates and Marlins.

It’s always tough to decipher whether credit/blame should be assigned to coaches or players but that’s especially true in this case as the Reds were missing many of their expected contributors for much of the year. Noelvi Marté received an 80-game PED suspension in March while players like Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Fraley, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and others spent significant time on the injured list.

Regardless, the club has decided a significant overhaul is needed and is moving on from three hitting coaches, who all joined going into 2023. McKeithan was a minor league hitting coach for the Phillies in 2019, despite being just 26 years old for much of that season. He also worked in the Tigers’ minor league system before getting hired by the Reds as an assistant hitting coach on the major league staff for the 2022 season. One year later, he was promoted to the top hitting coach job but is now out after two seasons in that job.

Bradshaw played in the majors in the ’90s but has been a coach for a number of years now. He was working in the Royals’ organization back in 2000 and got promoted to their big league hitting coach job in 2018. He was fired in 2022 and came to the Reds as an assistant to McKeithan. LaMonte was also hired as an assistant on McKeithan’s staff at that time after working for the Astros and Mets.

The Reds recently fired manager David Bell and hired Terry Francona to replace him. It’s not uncommon for coaching changes to accompany managerial changes, so Francona will seemingly be looking to shake things up on the hitting side of things at least.

Reds Activate Ian Gibaut From Injured List

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The Reds announced that right-hander Ian Gibaut has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Their 40-man roster had a vacancy due to righty Alan Busenitz being designated for assignment in recent days, but it is now full with this move. Right-hander Julian Aguiar has been placed on the 15-day IL, retroactive to September 21, with a right elbow sprain as the corresponding active roster move.

Gibaut, now 30, has missed the entire 2024 major league season thus far. He landed on the 15-day IL to start the year due to a right forearm strain. He was rehabbing in April but was shut down due to renewed discomfort. He was transferred to the 60-day IL in May and it was announced that he had undergone an anterior interosseous nerve (AIN) release procedure. He was able to begin another rehab assignment a few weeks back and has made four minor league appearances this month as part of that assignment.

The righty was a notable part of the club’s pitching staff last year. He made 74 appearances for the Reds in 2024, logging 75 2/3 innings. He allowed 3.33 earned runs in that time, striking out 21.7% of batters faced while issuing walks at an 8.8% clip. He earned 22 holds on the year as well as three saves.

He hasn’t been able to build off that showing here in 2024 but will perhaps be able to make a couple of appearances before the winter comes. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter. His mostly lost season here in 2024 will dampen his ability to raise his salary but he is out of options, so the Reds will have to decide if they are willing to commit to the righty for next year’s club on the heels of this lengthy absence.

Reds Select Julian Aguiar

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The Reds announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Julian Aguiar. Righty Casey Legumina was optioned to open an active roster spot. To get Aguiar onto the 40-man, the Reds recalled righty Christian Roa and placed him on the 60-day injured list with a right shoulder sprain.

Aguiar, 23, was a 12th-round selection of the Reds in the 2021 draft. In 2022, he tossed 96 1/3 innings, mostly at the Single-A level but also with a brief look at High-A. He allowed 3.46 earned runs per nine innings, struck out 27.6% of batters faced, limited walks to a 6.6% clip and got grounders on more than half of the balls that were put in play against him. Last year, he made 25 starts between High-A and Double-A. In his 125 innings, he posted a 2.95 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and again got hitters to hit the ball into the ground about half the time.

Coming into 2024, Baseball America ranked him the #14 prospect in the Reds’ system. FanGraphs had him a bit higher, putting him at #7 in early April. BA highlights his pitch mix, describing it as consisting of a four-seamer, two-seamer, curveball, slider and changeup. FG doesn’t mention the two-seamer and also characterizes the slider and curveball as the same breaking ball, just shaped slightly differently, though they admit that this essentially leads to Aguiar having two different breaking balls even if they are the same speed.

Here in 2024, Aguiar has continued posting some decent numbers, though not quite as strong as previous years. He has thrown 116 1/3 innings over 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.79 ERA. His 6% walk rate still demonstrates good control but his 19.7% strikeout rate is well below his previous two seasons. His ground ball rate has also been just below 40% at both levels this year, a drop from what he was able to achieve at the lower levels.

The Reds have Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day injured list. The former has a right elbow strain and an uncertain timeline. The latter has a shoulder strain and could be nearing a rehab assignment, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer on X, but hasn’t pitched in the big leagues yet this year. Even if he is able to start a rehab assignment soon, he’ll likely need a few weeks of ramp-up to get into game shape. Righty Hunter Greene landed on the 15-day IL this weekend with some elbow soreness and the club seems optimistic he can return after roughly a minimum stint, but it’s still a big blow to the rotation mix given that he’s pitched well enough to be in the Cy Young conversation this year.

Amid those injuries, the rotation is down to a core duo of Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott, along with swingmen Carson Spiers and Nick Martinez. Now they will be adding the rookie Aguiar into the mix. The Reds are six games back of a playoff spot at this point and clearly have at least some hope of making the playoffs as they recently claimed infielder Amed Rosario off waivers. Rosario is a veteran on a one-year deal and has no future impact, so they wouldn’t have made that move if they had given up on the season.

Perhaps Aguiar will get a few turns through the rotation to see how his stuff plays against big league hitters, at least until Greene or Williamson are able to come off the IL. The club also has Lyon Richardson and Connor Phillips on the 40-man roster but Richardson has a 4.58 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in Triple-A this year. Phillips, meanwhile, has a ghastly ERA of 10.11 in his 14 minor league starts and hasn’t pitched in official game action since June. Non-roster options like Justus Sheffield, Connor Overton and Brett Kennedy are either injured, putting up poor numbers or both. The club has an off-day on August 26 but then has a double-header on August 30, meaning they don’t have a ton of leeway with their rotation at the moment.

As for Roa, 25, he was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He has been on optional assignment all year and still hasn’t made his major league debut. He last pitched August 10 and it appears this shoulder strain will end his season. Based on this transaction, he won’t be eligible to return until the middle of October. That’s not a pleasant outcome for him but the silver lining is that he’ll now get a bit of major league service time and pay while spending the rest of the season on the injured list.

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