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Brandon Pfaadt

The Diamondbacks’ Surprisingly Middling Rotation

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Few teams have more aggressively added veteran rotation help over the past two years than the Diamondbacks. As shown on MLBTR's Contract Tracker, 15 free agent starting pitchers have signed for at least a $20MM average annual value since the start of the 2023-24 offseason. The D-Backs have been responsible for three of them.

If we exclude Shohei Ohtani, who was obviously signed more for his bat,  Arizona is the only team to sign three such contracts over the past two winters. The Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell) are the only other club that has signed more than one.

Arizona began with a four-year, $80MM contract for Eduardo Rodriguez. That was a sizable investment for their market size but not one that took too many people by surprise. They finally snapped Jordan Montgomery's extended free agent stay with a one-year, $25MM guarantee and an easily achievable vesting option that pushed their investment close to $50MM over two seasons.

The true shocker came last winter, when they emerged out of nowhere as the landing spot for Corbin Burnes, who wanted to pitch close to his Arizona home. He probably left some earnings upside on the table, but it still took a six-year commitment worth $210MM (with a net present value closer to $194MM after adjusting for deferred money).

They've added those big-name arms to an in-house starting pitching group that included Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. Maybe they didn't match the depth of some other clubs, but their top six to seven starters look exceptionally formidable. This should be one of the best rotations in MLB.

And yet, for two years running, it hasn't been particularly close to that.

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Diamondbacks Notes: Marte, Pfaadt, Ballpark

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Ketel Marte’s new contract extension came as a bit of a surprise, given that the star second baseman’s previous contract already gave the Diamondbacks control through at least the 2027 season, and likely through 2028 given a club option.  However, Marte’s latest contract now keeps him in the desert through 2031 and puts an additional $64MM in his bank account, while also restructuring and spreading out the salary to give the D’Backs a bit of shorter-term payroll relief.

Most notably, $5MM of Marte’s $14MM salary for this season is deferred.  GM Mike Hazen implied that money could be quickly reinvested back into the team in terms of trade deadline acquisitions.

“This gives us more room, in terms of this year, to see what happens as we go through the season,” Hazen told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert and other reporters.  “We certainly made a big investment at the beginning of the year, and this will give us that added flexibility as we move through.”

There’s no doubt Arizona is in all-in mode for the 2025 season, with an estimated $194.7MM payroll that far surpasses the previous franchise high.  Considering how many notable players (i.e. Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery) on high salaries are impending free agents, the D’Backs will be getting some money off the books next winter, but for now are firmly focused on winning while the entire group is together.  The Diamondbacks are off to a decent 5-3 start, though the club has been overshadowed by the red-hot performances of the other NL West contenders, and Marte now looks to be heading to the injured list due to a hamstring strain.

While Marte’s deal was his third long-term pact with the D’Backs, Brandon Pfaadt’s recent extension represented his first multi-year contract, as the right-hander is set to earn $45MM in guaranteed money over the 2026-30 seasons.  Now firmly locked in as a big part of the Diamondbacks’ future, Pfaadt almost didn’t end up in the organization at all, due to what Hazen now views as something of a “lucky” turn of events.

As Hazen and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, Pfaadt was one of three players the Snakes were considering with their fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft.  That was the year the draft was shortened to only five rounds due to the pandemic, creating a crunch for both players in starting their pro careers, and for teams in making the most of a drastically reduced draft system.  As always, clubs were still looking to maximize their draft pool budgets, and the D’Backs asked the three players on their radar whether or not they would sign for less than the $360.8K slot value attached to the 149th overall pick.

Two of the players balked, but Pfaadt agreed to take a $100K bonus and thus became part of Arizona’s organization.  “I think there were 11 picks left after me.  It was getting towards the end.  We took the opportunity over any money amount,” Pfaadt said.

The decision has now paid off for Pfaadt in tremendous fashion, and now the D’Backs look wise in hindsight for finding a quality starter in the fifth round.  Naturally, Hazen and Sawdaye didn’t name the other two players considered, though Sawdaye said that one didn’t make the majors and the other did, “but Pfaadt is better.”  Sawdaye also said that if the other two players had also agreed to a below-slot price, the team might have gone with one of the others over Pfaadt, just because they had less scouting evaluation and background work on Pfaadt.

“Sometimes it works out in your favor and you get the right guys,” Sawdaye said.  “Other times you look back and you kick yourself.  You’re like, ’My god, we passed up on him just to save money?’ ”

In some off-the-field news for the Diamondbacks, a bill intended to re-direct sales taxes at Chase Field towards ballpark renovations continues to work its way through the state legislature.  Arizona’s House of Representatives has already okayed the bill and it is now under review from the state Senate, with the finance committee also giving it a green light after an amendment.  However, the mayor of Phoenix and Maricopa County officials in general have increased concerns over how much taxpayer money is involved in the bill.

The project still has a major supporter in Arizona governor Katie Hobbs, who said Wednesday in an interview with KTAR 92.3’s “Outspoken With Bruce and Gaydos” show (hat tip to Alex Weiner for the partial recap) that she would sign the bill “at this point.”  Governor Hobbs acknowledged the tax implications and said “one thing that we want to make sure happens in the bill is that it doesn’t harm the taxpayers.  That’s one of the things being worked out in the details.”

“I think everyone wants to do what we can to keep the Diamondbacks here in Arizona, keep Major League Baseball in Arizona and I think we’re very close to an agreement.”

MLBTR Podcast: Garrett Crochet’s Extension, Problems In Atlanta, And Other Early-Season Storylines

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Extend Brandon Pfaadt

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The Diamondbacks announced that they have agreed to a five-year contract extension with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. It runs from 2026 through 2030 with a club option for 2031 and a mutual option for 2032. Reportedly, he is guaranteed $45MM with the following breakdown: $2MM signing bonus, a $3MM salary in 2026 followed by subsequent salaries of $5MM, $8MM, $11MM and $15MM. Then there’s a $21MM figure on the ’31 club option and a $25MM mutual option in 2032, with each of those options having a $1MM buyout.

He will reportedly have a five-team no-trade from 2030 to 2032. Pfaadt was previously slated for free agency after 2029, so this buys out at least one free agent year and the club option extends the club’s window of control by another season. The deal also reportedly includes a five-team no-trade list covering the 2030-32 seasons. Pfaadt is represented by Frontline.

Pfaadt, 26, was a fifth-round selection of the Diamondbacks in 2020. He quickly raised his stock with some strong minor league numbers. In 2021, he tossed 131 2/3 innings over 22 starts, spread across Single-A, High-A and Double-A. He had a combined 3.21 earned run average, 30.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate. In 2022, it was 167 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.83 ERA, 31.6% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate.

Going into 2023, he was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. He made his major league debut that year with 96 innings over 18 starts and one relief appearance. The 5.72 ERA doesn’t look amazing at first glance but Pfaadt’s 22.3% strikeout rate was around league average with a strong 6.2% walk rate. He held a spot in the rotation through the playoffs, making five postseason starts with a 3.27 ERA as the Diamondbacks took the National League pennant.

2024 was his first full season in the majors and he again performed better than his ERA would tell you. He allowed 4.71 earned run per nine over his 32 starts and 181 2/3 innings. His 24.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate were both strong numbers.

At this point, Pfaadt has a 5.06 ERA in 277 2/3 innings but that doesn’t tell the whole story. As mentioned, his strikeout and walk rates have been good. His .315 batting average on balls in play and 66.4% strand rate are both on the unlucky side. His 4.15 FIP and 3.86 SIERA point to him being roughly one run better than his ERA.

The Diamondbacks are presumably putting more stock in those under-the-hood numbers in committing to Pfaadt today. He was previously set to hit the open market after his age-30 season but they have instead locked him up through his age-31 season with a club option for his age-32 campaign as well.

Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there have been a few recent extensions for pitchers in their pre-arb years. The top of the list has guys like Spencer Strider at $75MM, Brayan Bello at $55MM and Hunter Greene at $53MM. Those guys were all younger than Pfaadt is now and Greene also had the hype of being a second overall pick and high-profile prospect. Strider was just wrapping up a 2022 season with an insane 38.3% strikeout rate.

Pfaadt’s $45MM deal comes in just a hair under Tanner Bibee’s recent $47.2MM deal. That’s understandable since Bibee has a 3.25 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 315 2/3 innings. Those numbers all put him a bit ahead of Pfaadt. He’s also a year closer to free agency, which gives him a bit of extra earning power.

For Pfaadt, he is kicking his free agency down the road, which will presumably lead to less future earning power. However, unlike some top prospects, he hasn’t been sitting on a multi-million-dollar bonus. He only got $100K when he signed and wasn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after the 2026 season. This deal allows him to lock up some life-changing money ahead of schedule and before his career gets derailed by an injury, an ever-present concern for a pitcher.

For the Diamondbacks, they have been aggressive in locking up their incumbent players. In the past six weeks, they have given notable extensions to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, reliever Justin Martínez and now Pfaadt.

The current rotation in Arizona is overloaded but the long-term picture is more open. For the 2025 season, they have Zac Gallen, Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez and Pfaadt in five spots. Ryne Nelson is working in long relief even though he’s talented enough to pitch in the rotation of many other clubs.

But Gallen and Kelly are both impending free agents. Burnes has an opt-out after 2026. Rodríguez is guaranteed through 2027. As the next few years play out, it’s possible that each of those guys eventually leaves Arizona. Pitchers within the system could possibly replace them, with Nelson, Drey Jameson, Yilber Díaz, Cristian Mena and some other arms already in house. As that plays out, the Snakes are surely hoping that Pfaadt can be a constant in their rotation as one group potentially makes way for another.

The club is currently running a franchise-record payroll but has some decent money coming off the books. In addition to the aforementioned pitchers, Jordan Montgomery’s deal expires after 2025. He’s making $22.5MM this year but won’t pitch at all due to Tommy John surgery. Eugenio Suárez is making $15MM this year and also slated for free agency. That will potentially create a hole at third base but it’s possible that prospect Jordan Lawlar could provide a cost-effective replacement. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is only guaranteed through 2026 and Ketel Marte 2027.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported the $45MM guarantee. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM in Phoenix relayed the option values. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the limited no-trade protection and then the annual salary breakdown. Gambadoro then relayed that the no-trade covered five teams.

Photos courtesy of Joe Rondone and Rob Schumacher, Imagn Images

D-backs Sticking To Five-Man Rotation

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The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes further crowded a rotation that had at least six starters in the mix. While there’s been talk of a possible six-man rotation in Arizona since that Burnes deal, manager Torey Lovullo said at D-backs camp this week that team is not considering that at this point (link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic).

That leaves the Diamondbacks with seven starters for five spots: Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson. The first four are largely locked into place. Burnes and Gallen are Cy Young-caliber arms when healthy. Kelly has been a steady midrotation arm for the Snakes since signing out of the KBO in the 2018-19 offseason. Rodriguez’s first year in Arizona was marred by injury, but he’s signed three more years and has a lengthy track record.

Montgomery’s status in Arizona has been a talking point throughout the winter. The Diamondbacks signed him to a one-year, $25MM contract with a vesting $20MM player option for the 2025 season. The left-hander pitched enough to trigger that option but nowhere near well enough to decline it in favor of a return to the open market. Signing just days before Opening Day last season, Montgomery missed spring training, rushed through an accelerated ramp-up in Triple-A and never appeared to be himself. He pitched 117 innings but was rocked for a 6.23 earned run average with career-worst walk and strikeout rates.

D-backs owner Ken Kendrick called Montgomery’s performance out late in the season, publicly lamenting the role that he’d played in bringing the left-hander to his organization. “I brought it to (the front office’s) attention. I pushed for it,” Kendrick said in September. “They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan. … And looking back, in hindsight, a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did.”

Pfaadt, 26, would give the D-backs an upside arm at the back of the staff. The former top prospect hasn’t yet found his stride over a full big league season but has shown glimpses of the potential that made him so well regarded. He looked to have found his stride last year, logging a 3.98 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate through his first 24 starts, but Pfaadt was hit hard in late August and for much of September. He mixed in one late-season gem — seven innings, one run, 12 strikeouts in Milwaukee — but even with that showing still posted an ERA north of 7.00 over his final eight starts. He finished the year at a 4.71 mark but did pile up 181 2/3 innings.

Nelson, who turned 27 in December, made 27 appearances this past season — 25 of them starts — and recorded 150 2/3 innings of 4.24 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate and 8.4% swinging-strike rate were below average (well below, with regard to the latter), but Nelson’s 5.4% walk rate was outstanding.

There are other options on the 40-man roster, but they’re likely to be viewed as depth candidates, barring a spring breakout. Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Tommy Henry and Blake Walston are all on the 40-man roster and have all made their big league debuts, but they’d likely only be called upon in the event of multiple injuries — at least with the current roster construction.

Kendrick’s comments on Montgomery led to plenty of speculation about a potential trade of this winter, but no such deal has come to fruition. It’s still possible the D-backs could find a taker for a portion of the contract or swap him out for a comparably priced veteran on an underwater deal (e.g. Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte), but for now, Montgomery will get a full spring buildup and look to bounce back from a dismal 2024 season.

If the D-backs can find some kind of trade that sheds a portion of the Montgomery money, any savings could be reallocated to other needs. Most notably, they’ve been in the market for a closer throughout the winter but have yet to add an established ninth-inning arm. Arizona’s payroll is projected for a franchise-record $195MM, per RosterResource. It’s not clear whether Kendrick is willing to push things further after already ponying up to sign Burnes (six years, $210MM), acquire Josh Naylor in a trade (one year, $10.9MM) and re-sign Randal Grichuk (one year, $5MM). Barring the signing of a veteran like David Robertson or Kyle Finnegan, the D-backs will look inward and lean on A.J. Puk, Justin Martinez and Kevin Ginkel as their top late-inning arms.

Diamondbacks Not Close To Any Pitching Trades

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The Diamondbacks’ surprise signing of Corbin Burnes added a new frontline arm to a rotation that was already operating at a surplus on paper.  Burnes joins Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson, giving the Snakes an enviably deep group of starting pitchers.  The D’backs had already been drawing trade interest in this group even before Burnes was added, but Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Burnes signing wasn’t made with any other pitching swaps immediately on the horizon.

According to Piecoro, no “other deals [are] lined up or even close” involving Arizona’s pitchers, as the Diamondbacks will continue to take a measured view of the market.  A source tells Piecoro that the D’Backs will likely “spend the coming days fielding calls from teams still in the hunt for starters, including those that were in on Burnes.”  The D’Backs aren’t in any particular rush to complete a trade any time soon, as having more than a full rotation in place before New Year’s Eve gives the club plenty of time to figure out the best possible offer.

It also isn’t entirely out of the question that the Diamondbacks stand pat on their starters, especially if an injury emerges to a starter during their offseason training, or during Spring Training.  Kelly, Rodriguez, and Montgomery all missed significant time with injuries last season, so there is obvious value in having extra pitchers on hand should any more health issues create openings in the rotation.  Operating with a six-man rotation is also a possibility, in order to keep everyone healthy and fresh for what the D’Backs hope can be an extended run through the playoffs.

Given how the Burnes deal reportedly came together just within the last week when Burnes himself approached the D’Backs, it isn’t surprising that the signing wasn’t part of an immediate plan to re-model the pitching staff.  Such two-step transactions are usually hard to pull off, though the Diamondbacks were part of such a set of moves from the Guardians just last week — Arizona acquired Josh Naylor from the Guards, and Cleveland then signed Carlos Santana that same day to immediately fill Naylor’s spot as the everyday first baseman.

The fact that Burnes signed with a team that was seemingly already set for starting pitching gives GM Mike Hazen even more leverage in shopping his hurlers.  Such known Burnes suitors like the Orioles, Blue Jays, or Giants are still in need of pitching, to say nothing of the many other starter-needy clubs on the market that weren’t willing or able to meet Burnes’ asking price.

Nothing seems to have changed in terms of which starters are most prominently on Arizona’s trade block.  Gallen and Kelly are both free agents next winter but don’t seem likely to be dealt, as a team source told Piecoro that the team’s focus in on “trying to put the best team on the field in 2025.”  Nelson is controlled through the 2027 season and Pfaadt through the 2029 season, so the Diamondbacks would probably only move either if a longer-term asset (likely a position player) could be obtained in return.  The D’Backs might not mind moving the $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s contract, but the club would certainly have to sell low and eat some of that money in the wake of E-Rod’s injury-plagued down year.

That leaves Montgomery as still the chief candidate to be dealt before Opening Day.  Montgomery’s trade value is also at a low ebb after his rough first year in Arizona, and his $22.5MM salary for the 2025 season.  Owner Ken Kendrick’s public criticism of Montgomery following the season only increased the probability that the left-hander would be pitching elsewhere next year, yet again, the Burnes signing gives the D’Backs some flexibility in this regard.  The Diamondbacks technically don’t have to trade Montgomery if an acceptable offer for another starter comes their way, and offers for Montgomery might improve if other teams become increasingly desperate to add pitching.

Diamondbacks’ Starters Drawing Trade Interest

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As free agent starters begin to find new homes — Blake Snell, Yusei Kikuchi, Frankie Montas, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Hendricks have all signed in the past two weeks — interest in the Diamondbacks’ collection of rotation arms has “started to pick up,” general manager Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The D-backs have at least six starters on the roster at present: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery.

Of the six, Montgomery is the most obvious trade candidate, following a rough 2024 showing and owner Ken Kendrick’s public, verbal thrashing of the player. In October, Kendrick openly lamented ever pushing his front office to sign Montgomery late in the 2023-24 offseason, calling it a “horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did” and “our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint.” Montgomery unsurprisingly exercised a $22.5MM player option even after being called out by Kendrick — a straightforward decision for a pitcher coming off an injury-shortened year with career-worst marks in ERA (6.23), strikeout rate (15.6%) and walk rate (8.3%).

For all the focus placed on Montgomery’s struggles last year, the other veteran lefty signed by Arizona last offseason also fell well short of expectations. Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80MM pact with the Snakes but was limited to just 10 starts after opening the season on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He pitched 50 innings of 5.04 ERA ball while showing diminished life on his four-seamer and sinker. Rodriguez is owed $20MM for the coming season, $21MM in 2026 and $19MM in 2027. He’s also guaranteed a $6MM buyout on a $17MM mutual option for the 2028 season — an option that could automatically vest based on his innings tallies in 2026-27. While Montgomery’s contract is underwater, the three years and $66MM remaining on Rodriguez’s pact very likely make him even harder to unload.

Any of  the other four arms in Arizona’s rotation would be hard to pry loose. Ace Zac Gallen is a Cy Young contender when healthy, evidenced by fifth- and third-place finishes in 2022 and 2023 balloting. He missed about a month of action with a hamstring strain in 2024 and flashed worse command than usual (relative to his excellent standards, anyhow), but any team would love to have the right-hander. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $14.1MM in his final season of club control before becoming a free agent next winter. Gallen is not being shopped, to be clear. Hazen even chuckled at the mere notion of Gallen being a prominent trade candidate in a mid-November appearance on Arizona Sports 98.7’s Wolf & Luke Show (2:35 mark). That’s unlikely to stop other teams from trying.

Kelly, like Gallen, is a free agent next offseason. He missed more than three months in 2024 with a shoulder strain but was generally effective when healthy, logging a 4.03 ERA with a slightly below-average 21% strikeout rate and a strong 6.3% walk rate. Arizona made an easy call to exercise a $7MM club option on Kelly for the upcoming season.

Nelson and Pfaadt are both controllable and thus quite valuable to the Snakes. The 26-year-old Nelson is under club control for four more seasons and just tossed 150 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.4% walk rate in 2024. Those numbers are skewed by a slow start, but from July onward, Nelson posted a 3.05 ERA, 24.8 K% and 5.0 BB% in 82 2/3 frames. He’s not yet eligible for arbitration.

Pfaadt, also 26, paced the D-backs with 181 2/3 innings and 32 starts. His 4.71 ERA doesn’t stand out, but his 24.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, 3.61 FIP and 3.65 SIERA are all far more encouraging. He might’ve worn down a bit late in the season as he pushed through that new career-high workload, as his worst months were August and September. A disproportionate amount of the damage against Pfaadt this season came in one nightmare September outing, wherein the Brewers tagged him for eight runs in just 1 2/3 innings. Lopping off even that one start would cause his season-long ERA to drop by nearly 40 points. Regardless, the former top prospect is a 2025 breakout candidate when considering his pedigree and rate stats that far outpace his pedestrian earned run average. Of the arms on the big league staff, he’s probably the most difficult for another team to acquire.

There’s depth even beyond that sextet. Right-hander Drey Jameson will be back from 2023 Tommy John surgery next year. He’s already had some big league success. There are another five starters on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A, all of whom have minor league options remaining and at least a bit of MLB experience: Yilber Diaz, Slade Cecconi, Blake Walston, Cristian Mena and Tommy Henry. Few organizations boast a stockpile of arms so deep.

All of that is to say — it’s hardly a surprise that clubs are calling the D-backs about their starters. The same is true of their outfielders, as Hazen already acknowledged a couple weeks back. Piecoro writes that (naturally) Montgomery is both the likeliest to move and the pitcher whom the team would most strongly prefer to deal. Hazen stated that Kendrick’s comments regarding the left-hander have “zero” impact on the urgency to trade him, though there’s likely some public-facing lip service at play there.

Piecoro adds that the D-backs would be willing to take on another contract of some note in return for Montgomery (if said player filled a roster need) or perhaps pursue more of a traditional salary dump, where they shed as much of the contract as possible for little to no return. Of note, Hazen suggested that if he’s to ultimately move Montgomery in deal that is primarily rooted in salary relief, the trade would need to come together before the bulk of quality free agents come off the board: “At some point, it doesn’t make sense because your pivot moves are picking at the edges rather than getting somebody (who is more of a target).”

Diamondbacks Notes: Turner, Pitching, Hazen, Deadline

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Justin Turner is “atop [the Diamondbacks’] wish list” this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.  It isn’t any surprise that the D’Backs would be in pursuit of Turner, as the team also had interest in the veteran infielder last winter, and Turner’s stock is quite high after a successful year with the Red Sox.

Turner hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers over 626 plate appearances with Boston last season, as he hasn’t shown much sign of decline even though he turns 39 later this month.  He’s back on the free agent market after declining his player option to remain with the Sox, and seems likely to land another multi-year contract even at his advanced age.  Anything beyond two guaranteed years might be a bit of a reach, however, which perhaps keeps Turner within the Diamondbacks’ price range.

Several contenders or would-be contenders are likely to check in on Turner this winter, so the reigning NL champion D’Backs won’t be alone in their pursuit.  Playing in Phoenix would also bring Turner a bit closer to his home in Southern California, and if Turner had designs on being a regular third baseman again, the Diamondbacks have an opening at the hot corner since Evan Longoria is also a free agent.  Turner would probably be in the lineup most every day as either a third baseman, designated hitter, or occasional first baseman if Christian Walker is at DH or getting a rest day.  When Turner isn’t at third base, Gerardo Perdomo or Emmanuel Rivera would be on hand to man the position.

Signing Turner would also add a right-handed bat to Arizona’s lineup, and GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that keeping the lineup balanced is “probably going to be an area that we’re going to need to address again.”  Free agents Longoria, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Tommy Pham all hit from the right side, leaving the Snakes a little heavy on lefty swingers and switch-hitters.  Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is a right-handed hitter who is expected to get a larger role after making his MLB debut in 2023, though installing Lawlar as the everyday shortstop might be a little bold, and it might be dependent on how the D’Backs address the third base situation.

Beyond another hitter or two, Hazen stressed that his team will be looking to add some experienced rotation help.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were the cornerstones of an otherwise subpar rotation, as most of the younger arms had some growing pains, veteran Zach Davies was injured and mostly ineffective, and Madison Bumgarner was released entirely after continued struggles.

Rookie Brandon Pfaadt established himself during the playoffs, so he’ll be penciled into one spot along with Gallen and Kelly.  That leaves room for another seasoned pitcher within the rotation’s top four, and Hazen felt the Snakes were simply lacking in this department during the postseason, most notably in their now-infamous bullpen game in Game 4 of the World Series.

“Having veterans in that rotation matter.  I think you looked across the aisle here in this series and [the Rangers] had more veteran starting pitchers than we did,” Hazen said.

To this end, Hazen had some regrets over not already addressing this need last summer.  The general manager said he “chased every starting pitcher in the free market” at the deadline, and noted that teams often asked for Pfaadt and Alek Thomas in trade demands.  While Hazen had no intention of moving either of those players, “were there other avenues that we could have pushed, by adding more prospects in the deals where it didn’t include those guys?  Where I should have gone down that route?  I don’t know.  I don’t know the answer to those things.  But I know I didn’t get a starting pitcher.  And that’s on me.”

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Injured List Activations: Davies, Whitlock

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Updates on some prominent players returning from the injured list…

  • The Diamondbacks reinstated Zach Davies from the 15-day IL, while also calling up Drey Jameson from Triple-A and optioning right-handers Brandon Pfaadt and Luis Frias.  Davies made just two starts and threw 9 1/3 innings before going on the IL in early April due to a strained left oblique, but he’ll now return to Arizona’s rotation, beginning with tonight’s game against the Red Sox.  Between Davies’ injury and Madison Bumgarner’s release, the D’Backs have turned to several of their younger pitchers to try and stabilize the rotation, but none of Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry, Pfaadt, or Jameson have done particularly well in starting duty.
  • Garrett Whitlock will be the opposing starter against Davies tonight, as the Red Sox have activated the right-hander from the 15-day IL.  The corresponding move took place yesterday, as Boston optioned left-hander Brennan Bernardino to Triple-A following Friday’s 7-2 win over the D’Backs.  Whitlock has missed a month due to ulnar neuritis, or essentially inflammation of the funny bone near his right elbow.  Whitlock has a 6.19 ERA over three starts and 16 innings this season, and while his results as a starter have been middling over the last two seasons, the Red Sox will continue to give Whitlock looks in the rotation.  Struggling veteran Corey Kluber will be moved to the bullpen to accommodate Whitlock’s return to the starting five.
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