Marlins Claim Forrest Wall
The Marlins announced Thursday that they’ve claimed outfielder Forrest Wall off waivers from the division-rival Braves. Wall has been optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville. Miami already had an open 40-man roster spot, so no corresponding moves were necessary.
The 28-year-old Wall hit .241/.313/.241 in a small sample of 32 plate appearances with Atlanta this season. He’s seen big league time with the Braves in two straight seasons now but has been primarily a reserve player who’s been up due to his speed. He’s gone 8-for-12 in stolen base attempts but had greater success and more prolific base-stealing numbers in the minors.
Looking past that quick look with the Braves, most of Wall’s 2024 season has been spent in Triple-A Gwinnett. He’s slashed .279/.380/.411 with a 12.1% walk rate, 25.1% strikeout rate and a dozen steals in 51 games. Wall typically draws walks at a high clip in the upper minors and makes opponents pay with his wheels. He’s a career .268/.354/.387 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons, and he’s swiped 152 bases in 353 games there. He’s played all three outfield positions and also has more than 2100 professional innings at second base.
Wall still has two minor league option years remaining beyond the current season, so if the Fish want to keep him on the roster, he can be a piece of their outfield puzzle for a few years to come. Wall doesn’t have much power but clocks into the 93rd percentile of big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed, per Statcast. Miami’s long-term outfield picture is rather thin at the moment, so bringing in a versatile OBP- and speed-focused outfielder with options left makes some sense — particularly if they trade center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. or (less likely) one of Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez in the coming days.
Orioles’ Jorge Mateo Suffers Left Elbow Subluxation; Connor Norby To See Regular Time At Second Base
The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve placed infielder/outfielder Jorge Mateo on the 10-day injured list due to a subluxation (i.e. partial dislocation) of his left elbow. Fellow infielder/outfielder Connor Norby is up from Triple-A Norfolk in his place. Baltimore also optioned righty Chayce McDermott to Norfolk following last night’s MLB debut and recalled righty Bryan Baker, adding a fresh arm to the bullpen.
Mateo suffered the injury on Tuesday in a collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson when both infielders slid for an up-the-middle grounder (video link). It’s not clear yet how long he’ll be sidelined. Manager Brandon Hyde told the Baltimore beat that Mateo will “miss some time,” but there’s still enough swelling to obfuscate the full recovery picture (link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun). While Mateo didn’t require immediate surgery, his arm was placed in a cast on Tuesday. He’ll eventually receive a second opinion, Weyrich tweets, and Hyde added that it’s “too soon” to tell whether Mateo will need surgery at some point.
With Mateo out for an indefinite period, Norby will “get some regular playing time” at second base, Hyde revealed. It’s a notable development both in the sense that Norby has ranked among the system’s best prospects since he was selected in the second round of the 2021 draft and in the sense that Norby has been a oft-speculated trade candidate as the O’s look to upgrade their pitching staff. The Orioles possess enough infield depth that they could still trade Norby — Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias can both play second base, and top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are looming in the upper minors — but that outcome seems less likely now that he’s ticketed for a near-everyday role in the big leagues.
Mateo, 29, has been the Orioles’ primary second baseman this season. He’s batted just .229/.267/.401 on the year. That’s 13% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, but Mateo has provided modest pop (five homers, .172 ISO) and plenty of value on the basepaths (13-for-15 in steals). Defensive metrics feel he’s been roughly average with the glove — his penchant for highlight-reel plays not withstanding.
With what seems like a notable absence and even a potential for surgery on the table, Mateo’s outlook in Baltimore becomes cloudy. He’s due for one more arbitration raise this offseason and would reach free agency following the 2025 campaign. Given the possibility of a long layoff, the team’s enviable infield depth and the fact that Mateo is owed a raise on a $2.7MM salary, he could again emerge as an offseason trade candidate or non-tender candidate, depending on the ultimate prognosis for his injury.
The 24-year-old Norby isn’t likely to be a defensive upgrade but can be reasonably expected to provide a boost to an already potent lineup. He’s hitting .297/.389/.519 in Norfolk (133 wRC+) with 16 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple, 13 steals (in 16 tries) and a stout 12.5% walk rate. Norby’s 27.7% strikeout rate with the Tides is a red flag, but punchouts haven’t been a long-running problem for the East Carolina University product.
Norby made his big league debut earlier this season, appearing in four games and going 3-for-14 with a home run before being sent back down. He can’t accrue a full year of service in 2024, meaning he’ll still be under club control for another six full seasons. He’s in the first of his three minor league option years and won’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason at the earliest.
Breslow: Red Sox Looking To Add Pitching, Right-Handed Bat
The Red Sox are six games out in the AL East and sit just one game back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. They’ve been linked to a number of trade targets over the past week — James Paxton, Jameson Taillon and Luis Rengifo among them. That should be indicative of the team’s deadline approach, but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow removed any doubt and publicly stated that he’s “looking for ways to improve the club” in the final days before next Tuesday’s trade deadline (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).
Specifically, Breslow cited a desire to add to an injury-depleted pitching staff and to find a right-handed bat to complement a lineup that leans left-handed. Asked about the possibility of both moving some current contributors who are free agents at season’s end (e.g. Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen) and also looking to add elsewhere on the roster, Breslow said it’d be “irresponsible” if he didn’t at least listen to what teams had to offer, but he also heavily downplayed the possibility of trading a current contributor: “It’s hard to think about how moving those guys would make us better,” said Breslow.
Boston’s rotation was dealt a significant blow before the season even began, when offseason signee Lucas Giolito suffered a UCL tear during spring training and underwent an internal brace procedure that’ll keep him out of action until 2025. Righty Garrett Whitlock underwent the same procedure just two months later. Depth starter Chris Murphy had Tommy John surgery in April.
At the moment, the Sox are going with a rotation of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell. Houck has already set a new career-high in innings pitched with more than two months of the season to play out. Crawford is 10 innings shy of last year’s 129 1/3 frames. Criswell has been a nice under-the-radar find for the Sox, pitching to a 4.02 ERA in 65 innings. However, he’s cooled after a hot start. Even with the seven scoreless frames he tossed in his most recent start, Criswell has a 5.26 earned run average dating back to mid-May. Like Houck and Crawford, he’d sail past his career-high innings count if he remained in the rotation for the rest of the season.
Boston’s depth beyond that quintet isn’t great. Righty Josh Winckowski has pitched well in five starts, but he’s been valuable as a long reliever as well (highlighted by an excellent six-inning relief appearance in which he held the Jays to two runs and saved the rest of the ‘pen on a day when Bello was knocked out in the third inning). Veteran Chase Anderson is another long option in the bullpen but has a rough track record in recent seasons. He’s pitched to a 4.59 ERA in 2024 but has generally worked in low-leverage and mop-up situations. Veteran Brad Keller is on the 40-man roster in Triple-A, but the Sox used him in relief earlier this season and he was hit hard both in Boston and with the ChiSox. Non-40-man options include Naoyuki Uwasawa, prospect Richard Fitts and journeyman Jason Alexander.
Suffice it to say, the Sox could use both some bulk innings and some more depth. Breslow indicated that “in a perfect world,” he’d be able to acquire someone controlled/signed beyond the current season, though such options aren’t exactly plentiful. Boston’s reported interest in Paxton signals that they’re at least open to a short-term rental, while their talks with the Cubs about Taillon demonstrate a willingness to take on some salary of note. Taillon is signed through 2026 and earning $18MM per season along the way.
With regard to a right-handed bat, the need is arguably less acute but notable nonetheless. Red Sox hitters have posted a league-average .249/.325/.403 slash against left-handed pitching this season. That’s hardly a glaring flaw, but there’s room for improvement. That’s especially true when it comes to their contact abilities against lefties — or rather, their lack thereof. Sox hitters have fanned at an MLB-worst 28.8% clip against lefties, and no other team is particularly close. The Mariners have the second-worst mark at 26.2%, and the Rockies (25.2%) are the only other team north of 25%.
Between Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, the Sox have a handful of key left-handed bats in the lineup. Devers and Duran have been fixtures regardless of opponent. Abreu is typically complemented by righty-swinging veteran Rob Refsnyder. Right-handed regulars in the lineup include catcher Connor Wong (who’s in the midst of a breakout year at the plate), versatile Ceddanne Rafaela and the aforementioned O’Neill.
Speculatively speaking, first or second base would be a sensible area to target a right-handed bat. Dominic Smith has held his own with a .232/.326/.371 slash in the absence of slugger Triston Casas (another lefty), but Casas isn’t especially close to returning. Boston’s Chris Sale-for-Vaughn Grissom swap has been disastrous thus far, with Sale returning to form in Atlanta while Grissom has hit .148/.207/.160 in 87 plate appearances during an injury-ruined first year in Boston. Sox second basemen have batted an MLB-worst .197/.253/.299 on the season.
Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario and old friend Justin Turner are among the rental options who could help in one of those roles. More controllable names include Brent Rooker, Isaac Paredes and the aforementioned Rengifo (a switch-hitter).
The Red Sox drew plenty of criticism for a relatively quiet offseason that followed chairman Tom Werner’s regrettable “full throttle” comments earlier in the winter, but one notable result of that is a luxury-tax ledger that’s not all that close to the threshold. RosterResource projects about $218MM worth of luxury obligations for the Sox, meaning they’re a hefty $19MM shy of the first tier of luxury penalization. The Sox reset their tax bracket when they dipped under the threshold in 2023, but even if ownership is reluctant to exceed it again, their current number should allow Breslow and his staff flexibility when exploring trades in the next few days.
Braves Designate Zack Short For Assignment
The Braves announced this morning that they’ve designated infielder Zack Short for assignment. His roster spot will go to third baseman Austin Riley, who’s been reinstated from the paternity list. Atlanta also recalled right-hander Daysbel Hernandez from Triple-A Gwinnett. They had an open active roster spot after optioning southpaw Zach Logue to Gwinnett last night.
Short, 29, has appeared in 30 games with the Braves this season. He’s taken 69 plate appearances and struggled to a .148/.313/.204 batting line. Short has shown good plate discipline in that small sample (17.4% walk rate), as has been the case throughout his big league career (12.3% walk rate in 538 plate appearances). Even with that keen eye, however, Short carries a lifetime .167/.269/.287 in the majors. He’s a versatile defender who can play all over the infield, though defensive metrics suggest he’s best suited at second base. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, he’s a .224/.357/.400 hitter.
Atlanta will trade Short or attempt to pass him through outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers would be an additional 48-hour process. If he were to go unclaimed, Short would stick in the Braves organization as a depth option because he does not have a prior outright assignment or sufficient major league service time to reject an outright in favor of free agency. Short is out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will have to place him directly on the MLB roster.
Dodgers’ Kyle Hurt To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
The Dodgers’ litany of pitching injuries continues to mount. Right-hander Kyle Hurt is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery, reports Doug McKain of Dodgers Nation. Tommy John surgery typically comes with a recovery timeline of 12 to 16 months, so Hurt will be sidelined until late in the 2025 season at least — and possibly into the 2026 campaign.
Hurt, 26, came to the Dodgers from the Marlins alongside lefty Alex Vesia in a trade sending righty Dylan Floro to Miami. The 2020 fifth-rounder quickly climbed the organization’s prospect rankings, entering the ’24 campaign as L.A.’s No. 11 prospect at Baseball America and No. 7 over at FanGraphs.
Though he pitched in the majors last season and briefly earlier in 2024, Hurt has totaled only 8 2/3 innings at the MLB level. He’s yielded only one run with a 6-to-1 K/BB ratio in that time. Hurt has spent the rest of the 2024 season in Triple-A Oklahoma City — mostly on the minor league injured list. He missed two months early this season due to inflammation in his shoulder, came back as a reliever in early June, and was placed back on the injured list a month later. This latest trip to the IL, it seems, will last quite a bit longer.
Hurt has spent time on the injured list both in 2022 and now in 2024. He’s a clearly talented arm but has also yet to reach 100 innings in a professional season. The right-hander tossed 92 frames of 3.91 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A last season (plus two shutout MLB innings), and as Baseball America points out, he led all minor leaguers (min. 90 innings) with a colossal 39.2% strikeout rate. Hurt’s heater sits mid-90s and touches the upper 90s, and his changeup draws plus grades on the 20-80 scale — with FanGr.aphs going so far as to grade it as a true 80 offering.
BA’s scouting report on Hurt cited durability as a concern even before the current season. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen w0rote in March that Hurt comes with “a lot of relief risk” but had a chance to work as a five-inning starter. Even if that’s not the case, Hurt profiles as a potential high-end reliever given his velocity — which would presumably tick up in one-inning stints — the quality of his changeup and the ease with which he misses bats.
All of that will be put on hold for the time being, but Hurt will have multiple option years remaining beyond the current season. He’ll turn 27 next May, so he’ll be on the older side for a “prospect” by the time he returns in late 2025 or early 2026, but the quality of his arsenal is tantalizing enough that the Dodgers (or perhaps another club) will keep carrying him on the 40-man roster with an eye toward the benefit that can be reaped in the future.
Pirates Could Add To Offense By Dealing From Pitching Depth
The Pirates are scouring the trade market for ways to improve their lineup, and given the lack of pure sellers with available bats, one potential avenue the team has explored is trading from another area of its major league roster to augment the offense. General manager Ben Cherington discussed such a possibility on Sunday (link via Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), and he mentioned just today that the team has an abundance of pitching that could appeal to other clubs (also via Hiles).
Pittsburgh indeed has a deceptively deep collection of arms, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last Wednesday in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests that a back-end starter such as Bailey Falter or perhaps a late-inning relievers like Aroldis Chapman or even Colin Holderman and David Bednar could be in play if the Bucs indeed want to use their collection of arms to add a bat. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com tweets that the Pirates have been willing to deal from the bullpen to improve the lineup but also adds that some of the team’s pitching prospects could come into play.
It goes without saying that Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller don’t factor into this thinking. That excellent trio is the very foundation on which the Pirates’ staff will be built for the next several years. But the Buccos have plenty of affordable back-of-the-rotation options.
The Braves are covering all but $3MM of Marco Gonzales‘ salary this season. He’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in 26 1/3 innings and has looked sharp since returning from a two-month IL stint owing to a muscle strain in his forearm. A team looking for an affordable fourth or fifth starter (e.g. Twins, Astros, Guardians) could be intrigued. Falter is currently on the injured list due to tendinitis in his triceps but should be back before long. He’s posted a 4.08 ERA in 17 starts (90 1/3 innings) while fanning 16.7% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options but controlled another four seasons beyond the 2024 campaign. Martin Perez tossed six shutout innings today but did so while issuing five walks and only lowered his ERA to 5.20 in the process. He’s earning $8MM, which makes it hard to see him bringing back a bat of note.
In terms of less-established options, the Pirates have names like Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft to peddle. Priester has gotten some MLB experience, but the former top prospect has yet to establish himself as a core rotation piece. Burrows and Ashcraft haven’t yet debuted. The former only just returned from Tommy John surgery performed last April. He’s slowly moving up the minor league ladder on a rehab assignment. The latter has had a breakout season between Double-A and Triple-A.
The Pirates surely don’t want to deplete their stock of arms too greatly, but in an ideal world, top prospect Bubba Chandler will claim a rotation spot by 2025. At that point, there’s a notable glut of arms with only one rotation spot truly open. Even if Chandler needs more time or gets hurt, Pittsburgh would still have him, Priester, Falter, Ashcraft, Burrows, Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo (recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery) as long-term rotation options behind Skenes, Jones and Keller.
In the bullpen, Chapman is back to his excessively wild ways. He’s fanned a mammoth 36.6% of his opponents but also issued walks at a woeful 19.5% clip. To Chapman’s credit, he’s been better in that regard after a shaky April/May showing. Over the past two months, he’s sitting on a 3.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate. That’s still too many free passes, but it’s more in line with some past marks from Chapman, who has frequently been able to overcome poor command because of his blistering velocity and knack for missing bats. Overall, Chapman sports a 3.93 ERA on the season. He’s being paid $10.5MM, and the Pirates still owe him about $3.72MM as of this writing. He’s a free agent at season’s end.
Both Bednar and especially Holderman would come with greater appeal. Bednar has long frequented the pages of MLBTR in past trade deadlines and offseasons. Clubs throughout the league have targeted the Pittsburgh-area native since he established himself with his hometown club, but a deal has never come together. Now, Bednar is struggling through a career-worst season, with a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings. The shaky ERA seems tied largely to a spike in homer-to-flyball rate; from 2021-23, only 6.6% of Bednar’s fly balls became homers. This year, he’s nearly doubled that, sitting at 12.2%. Bednar is also allowing more fly balls than ever (50%), making the timing of that spike most unwelcome.
Still, there’s plenty of track record with Bednar, who from ’21-’23 posted a 2.25 ERA with 61 saves and elite strikeout and walk rates. He’s earning $4.51MM this season and is controllable through the 2026 campaign.
The 28-year-old Holderman would be difficult to trade. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible, though he will be this season as a Super Two player. Holderman is controlled four more years, all the way through 2028, and has delivered 36 2/3 innings of 1.72 ERA ball this season, fanning 28.8% of his opponents against a 10.9% walk rate. Moving on from a controllable leverage reliever of that ilk isn’t easy, though the Bucs could consider it a nifty piece of business to acquire Holderman from the Mets in exchange for Daniel Vogelbach (back in 2022) and then trade him for a more impactful bat just two years later. And with so many arms in the system behind Skenes, Keller and Jones, some of those in-house options are going to wind up in the bullpen.
Trades of Holderman and Bednar seem like a long shot, particularly since the latter would be selling low on a popular hometown All-Star. That said, the Bucs do have a large stock of arms from which to deal. Moving an established reliever/starter for a bat could open the door for any number of young, promising in-house replacements, while a more conventional swap might simply see them trade some of those prospects for immediate offensive help — ideally a bat controlled for multiple years beyond the current season.
J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez Facing Notable Absences
The Mariners’ offense is already reeling, and they’ll now be without two prominent hitters for significant stretches in the season’s second half. General manager Justin Hollander tells the Mariners beat that shortstop J.P. Crawford, who was placed on the 10-day IL yesterday with a fracture in his hand, will miss at least four to six weeks (X link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). A timetable for Julio Rodriguez, who landed on the IL at the same time due to a right high ankle sprain, will be reevaluated seven to ten days from now. That doesn’t shed much light on an exact return date for Rodriguez, but it seems clear he’ll miss more than the 10-day minimum with his injury.
Neither Crawford nor Rodriguez has performed up to their personal standards in 2024 — a large reason that Seattle’s lineup has been among the least-productive in the sport. Crawford is playing excellent defense at shortstop but is hitting just .204/.299/.347 on the season. For a player who batted .262/.352/.384 over the three prior seasons — including a career-best .266/.380/.438 just last season — it’s a major downturn in performance.
As for Rodriguez, he’s been about average at the plate this season (.263/.315/.372), but that’s still a precipitous fall for a hitter who burst into the majors with a .279/.338/.495 batting line and 60 homers through his first 287 games. Rodriguez swatted 32 big flies just last season but only has 11 on the year in 2024. His isolated power (slugging minus batting average) sat at .216 in 2022-23 but has plummeted to .109 this year. The timing of his injury is particularly difficult, as Rodriguez looked to finally be getting hot at the plate this month. In his past 48 turns at the dish, he’d delivered a scintillating .409/.469/.750 slash with four homers and three doubles.
With Crawford shelved, the Mariners will likely turn to Dylan Moore and Leo Rivas as their top options at shortstop. Moore’s .230/.307/.425 output against lefties is a solid enough mark, though virtually any defensive metric will agree that he’s stretched too thin playing shortstop on a regular basis. Rivas could take up the larger side of a platoon, in theory. He’s only had six big league plate appearances to this point in his career, but the switch-hitter is batting .288/.440/.397 in 195 plate appearances as a left-handed hitter this season.
In the outfield, Rodriguez’s loss stings even more. The Mariners can go with an alignment of Luke Raley, Victor Robles and Mitch Haniger on most days, with Cade Marlowe and Jonatan Clase as options on the bench. No one from that group can replicate the production of a healthy Rodriguez. For now, the team will hope for good news at his reevaluation, but it’s hard to imagine this pair of injuries won’t impact the Mariners’ outlook at the trade deadline.
Seattle was already known to be seeking a significant upgrade for a lineup that currently ranks 28th in the majors both in runs scored (389) and on-base percentage (.298). The Mariners are actually tied with the Guardians for the 12th-most homers in MLB, but their bottom-of-the-barrel OBP has led to a disproportionate number of solo shots. Seattle has an elite rotation and the makings of an excellent bullpen now that Gregory Santos has rejoined the mix, but the lack of bats is a glaring issue that was already expected to dictate their deadline trajectory. Now, with Crawford and Rodriguez out for a significant period, it seems all the more likely that the Mariners will strive to bolster the lineup in a meaningful way.
Nationals’ Josiah Gray Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
July 24: Gray underwent a Tommy John procedure and internal brace, tweets Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. He’ll miss at least the bulk of next season.
July 19: Nationals right-hander Josiah Gray has been diagnosed with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and will undergo season-ending surgery next week, tweets Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com. Gray tells reporters that it hasn’t yet been determined whether he’ll undergo a traditional Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure or a hybrid of both (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). That determination won’t be made until the surgery is being performed, but he’ll be sidelined well into next season regardless.
Gray, 26, came to the Nats alongside catcher Keibert Ruiz in the blockbuster 2021 deadline trade sending Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He stepped into the Nats’ rotation that same summer and has been a fixture on the staff since, although he’s only been healthy enough to make two starts in 2024. Gray was rocked for 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings across those two outings before heading to the injured list with a flexor strain.
Just a few weeks ago, things looked to be trending up for Gray. He went out on a minor league rehab assignment on June 9 and, after a shaky first outing, allowed four runs in 15 innings across his next three starts. He tossed six innings in a Triple-A appearance on June 25 and allowed just one run on four hits and no walks with four punchouts. At the time, it seemed that with one more rehab outing, Gray would get the go-ahead to rejoin the Nationals’ rotation.
His next start, however, yielded disastrous results. He was torched for seven runs in just three innings and exited the game with an injury — this time feeling discomfort in his right elbow. Further testing was performed, and Gray unfortunately received the worst-case scenario for any pitcher when he undergoes testing on his elbow.
A former second-round pick, Gray was long touted as a top prospect before his big league debut — not necessarily because of an ace-caliber ceiling but because he was considered a very likely third or fourth starter. In 2023, he looked to have emerged as just that with the Nats, tossing 159 innings with a 3.91 ERA. Gray’s 20.5% strikeout rate and particularly his 11.5% walk rate were worse than the league average, but he substantially cut back on his prior home run troubles last season. Even with sub-par strikeout and walk rates, Gray looked the part of an innings-eating back-end starter, and given that he was just entering his age-26 season, the possibility for another step forward remained.
Now, he’ll be sidelined well into his age-27 campaign — potentially missing the majority of next season, depending on the extent of the surgery he requires. A Tommy John or Tommy John/internal brace hybrid could come with a recovery timetable of up to 14 months. If his recovery is indeed on the lengthy end of the spectrum, it’s possible this injury will knock him out until Opening Day 2026.
Gray entered the 2024 season with 2.075 years of service. He’s been collecting big league service time on the injured list and will continue to do so for the remainder of the year. He’ll finish at 3.075 years and qualify for arbitration for the first time. He’s entrenched in the team’s plans and has three seasons of control remaining beyond the current year, so there’s no chance he’ll be considered a non-tender candidate, even if it’s possible he misses all of next year.
Subtracting Gray from the rotation outlook is a significant punch to the Nationals’ outlook over the next year-plus. With Patrick Corbin coming off the books and top prospect Cade Cavalli soon to return from his own Tommy John procedure, the Nats could look ahead to a 2025 rotation of Gray, Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore, breakout righty Jake Irvin and impressive rookie Mitchell Parker — to say nothing of any potential offseason additions to the pitching staff.
With Gray now on the shelf, that’ll only add further motivation for longtime baseball ops leader Mike Rizzo to add some rotation help in the winter (or perhaps to nab a near-MLB-ready arm at this month’s July 30 trade deadline). The Nationals aren’t quite done with their rebuilding effort — they traded Hunter Harvey last week and could well trade Kyle Finnegan, Jesse Winker and others before the deadline — but are in the final stages. James Wood, the sport’s No. 1 prospect per Baseball America, made his debut earlier this month. Gore, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have cemented themselves as core players this season. Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Dylan Crews, should make his big league debut before long. Things are trending up, but the injury to Gray is a setback of some note that figures to factor into the organization’s offseason outlook.
Christian Yelich Could Require Back Surgery
12:02pm: Yelich is meeting with a spine specialist tomorrow, and season-ending back surgery is a possibility, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.
“Everybody plays through stuff, but sometimes you just can’t,” Yelich tells McCalvy. “That’s kind of where we’re at, at this point. Your body won’t cooperate with you.”
10:35am: The Brewers announced this morning that they’ve placed Christian Yelich on the 10-day injured list due to lower back inflammation. Catcher Gary Sanchez was activated from the IL to take Yelich’s spot on the roster.
Yelich exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs with tightness in his back, and he’s taken a more ominous tone this morning when discussing the injury with the Brewers beat. He’s headed to see a specialist, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (X link), and Yelich’s description of what comes next foreshadowed a potentially notable absence.
“Go from there as far as what’s going to be best for the near future and into the future,” Yelich said of his visit to a back specialist. “A couple different discussions I think that need to be had.”
Yelich, 32, saw his production tail off in 2020-21, but the former MVP has been on the upswing since. His numbers have improved in three straight seasons, culminating in a vintage .315/.406/.504 batting line through his first 315 plate appearances of the 2024 season. That’s 56% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, which stands as the third-highest mark in Yelich’s excellent career. His reemergence as one of the National League’s best and most well-rounded offensive players has played a huge role in Milwaukee’s five-game lead in the division, but Yelich’s comments this morning are far from optimistic.
The Brewers are deeper in outfielders than most clubs, so there are plenty of internal options to step into his spot, though clearly no one can be expected to replicate Yelich’s standout offense this season. Still, Milwaukee has Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins all on the big league roster at the moment. Former top prospect Joey Wiemer has a 16.6% walk rate and .376 OBP down in Triple-A (though his typical power output has curiously been M.I.A.). Milwaukee also just added the appropriately named Brewer Hicklen to its 40-man roster last week; the 28-year-old has hit .274/.383/.569 with 19 homers and 27 steals in Triple-A Nashville after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.
It’s not yet clear how much time Yelich can be expected to miss, but with the trade deadline just six days away, it’s easy enough to see this injury having some broad-reaching impact on the Brewers’ deadline outlook. Yelich’s absence could make the Brewers more wary of dealing from that stash of controllable young outfielders. It’s also feasible that a long-term absence could push the Brewers to look into adding a bat, regardless of position. Yelich has been the team’s best hitter and has also appeared in 26 games as a designated hitter. That could open up some at-bats for any new hitter to step into the lineup.
Starting pitching figures to remain the Brewers’ focus, even after adding Aaron Civale in a deal with the Rays earlier this month, but Yelich’s injury is a difficult one to stomach for a division-leading team. There’s no comparable hitter who could be had, of course, but it stands to reason that a long-term absence for Yelich could prompt Milwaukee to look at a variety of bats who could deepen the lineup.
Tigers Getting Trade Interest In Mark Canha
When looking at the Tigers’ potential trade candidates, the majority of focus is understandably on starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal. (The former seems likely to move, the latter does not.) But for all the deserved attention on those arms, Detroit’s roster has several other pieces who could pique the interest of contending clubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha, for instance, has a “robust” market and could change hands between now and next Tuesday.
Canha, 35, is earning $11.5MM this season and will be a free agent this winter. He’s hit .236/.341/.361 in 358 plate appearances, checking in about 3% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. Canha’s 19.8% strikeout rate is lower than average, and his 11.2% walk rate is comfortably north of average. He’s played both outfield corners and first base in 2024, not necessarily excelling at any one spot but providing a capable hand at each position.
It’s not an eye-catching skill set, but Canha is thriving in one key area: his right-handed bat is pummeling left-handed pitching. In 276 plate appearances against fellow righties this year, Canha carries a tepid .218/.319/.328 slash. In 82 trips to the plate against lefties, however, Canha is hitting .299/.415/.478 (150 wRC+). Canha has had roughly even splits against lefties and righties in his career, with productive lines against both, but over the past couple seasons he’s begun to see a more conventional platoon split. In 248 plate appearances against southpaws dating back to last season, Canha boasts a .275/.379/.469 slash.
Canha still has about $4.2MM of this season’s salary yet to be paid out. That number will drop to $3.83MM by Tuesday’s deadline. A potential trade partner might not want to cover the full freight of that salary in exchange for a 35-year-old who could be used as a platoon option down the stretch, but if the Tigers cover some of the salary, it’s easy enough to see why contending clubs would want to add a productive righty who can play multiple spots on the diamond.
Canha isn’t going to fetch the Tigers a major prospect even if they pay him down to league minimum for his new club, but he’s still appealing in the right role. The Cardinals, Reds, Royals and Mariners are among the playoff hopefuls who have struggled against left-handed pitching this season. The Braves (Ronald Acuna Jr.), Astros (Kyle Tucker) and Padres (Fernando Tatis Jr.) all have star outfielders on the injured list (and Canha could also play some first base in Houston). The Phillies could pair Canha with Brandon Marsh in an outfield platoon. There ought to be several clubs with interest, and as a pending free agent on a team widely expected to sell, Canha has a good chance to move.