Astros Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes
The Astros, looking to lengthen their lineup and get more production out of first base, are among the teams with interest in Rays infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome explains, the bottom third of Houston’s lineup has produced a disastrous .254 OBP since Kyle Tucker went on the injured list 40 games ago, shortening the lineup and leaving a lot of pressure on the top of the batting order.
Paredes is a natural fit for the Astros, though between his affordable $3.4MM salary, his three additional years of club control, his defensive versatility and this year’s .250/.352/.445 slash, he’d fit on the majority of contenders around the league. Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman this season, but he has considerable experience at both second base and first base as well, and he’s even played 50 innings of shortstop in the majors. He’s probably not cut out for long-term shortstop work, but Statcast feels he’s been average or better at each of the three other infield spots.
Among the 148 qualified hitters in MLB this season, only one has a higher pull rate than Paredes: Houston’s own Jose Altuve. That pull-happy approach from a righty power bat like Paredes makes the Astros’ Minute Maid Park — and the short left field porch in the Crawford Boxes — a particularly interesting fit. Paredes popped 31 homers last season and has 16 so far in 2024.
The Astros have gotten virtually nothing out of first base this season. Jose Abreu was released in the second season of an ill-fated three-year contract. Jon Singleton has been the primary option since. He’s hitting .230/.321/.345 on the season. That’s seven percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, at a position where above-average offense is typically expected. Singleton also grades as a poor first base defender and poor baserunner.
Swapping Singleton out for Paredes and then pairing him with Tucker’s eventual return could have a transformative impact on the Houston lineup. The benefits of adding Paredes would be further reaching in the long-term, too. Alex Bregman is slated to become a free agent this offseason, and while the Astros figure to be part of his offseason market, he’s hardly a guarantee to re-sign. Keeping Bregman could require a longer and more lucrative contract than the ‘Stros have given out to anyone under owner Jim Crane; Yordan Alvarez‘s six-year, $115MM deal is the longest contract issued under Crane, while Altuve’s 2018 extension that guaranteed him $151MM in new money is the largest guarantee. If Bregman doesn’t stay in Houston, Paredes could shift across the diamond to third base in 2025.
For all the reasons just listed, however, Paredes will be extremely expensive to acquire — at least in terms of prospects/young talent. Any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners and Red Sox (among others) stand as obvious fits and suitors for him. The market will be competitive. And, since Paredes is controllable through the 2027 season and should earn under $10MM next season in arbitration, the Rays likely don’t feel a need to move him. They’ll listen, as they do on all of their players, but it’ll take a genuinely compelling offer to pry three-plus years of one of the game’s most underrated infielders from their grasp.
That said, the Rays have sufficient infield depth to withstand the loss of Paredes. Third baseman Junior Caminero ranks as one of the sport’s top five prospects and is ready for a look in the majors. Caminero’s presence alone doesn’t make Paredes expendable — he could easily move to another infield position or just bounce between multiple slots on a regular basis — but having a ready-made replacement does make it a bit easier to move him than if the cupboard behind him were bare. Other, more expensive veterans on the Rays (e.g. Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena) seem likelier to move between now and next Tuesday’s deadline, but Paredes should draw heavy interest in his own right and likely could be had with a substantial enough offer.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
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Red Sox Interested In James Paxton
The Red Sox head into the trade deadline looking to deepen their starting staff, and WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that there’s a “strong likelihood” Boston will be in the mix for left-hander James Paxton, whom the Dodgers just designated for assignment yesterday. The Sox are quite familiar with Paxton, who spent the 2022-23 seasons in the organization.
Injuries prevented Paxton from taking the mound for the Sox in 2022 and led him to exercise a player option for the 2023 season. He bounced back with 19 starts and 96 innings — both his highest marks since 2019 in New York. Paxton’s 4.50 ERA wasn’t much to look at, though metrics like SIERA (4.11) and FIP (3.77) painted a friendlier picture. He fanned a sharp 24.6% of his opponents last season against a tidy 8% walk rate.
Things haven’t gone as well in a similar workload with the Dodgers. Although Paxton’s 18 starts, 89 1/3 innings and 4.43 ERA all generally mirror last year’s numbers with the Red Sox, the rest of his numbers are markedly worse. Paxton averaged 95.2 mph on his fastball last season, per Statcast, but is down to 93.2 mph on average in 2024. His strikeout rate has plummeted to 16.4%, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.3%. Paxton is getting fewer whiffs, fewer grounders and yielding far more hard contact in 2024 than he did in 2023. The primary difference has been the lefty’s dip in home run rate (9.5% HR/FB, 1.11 HR/9) and a career-low .267 average on balls in play.
Even if Paxton’s K-BB and batted-ball profiles are diminished relative to his 2023 levels, he’s still been a perhaps surprisingly durable arm this year. He’s made all 18 starts asked of him and has yet to land on the injured list. He’d also be highly affordable from a financial standpoint. He’s playing the season on a one-year deal that came with a $4MM base salary, $2MM bonus for making the Opening Day roster and $3MM singing bonus. Paxton’s deal also allowed him to earn $4MM off incentives based on games started. The lump sum of that signing bonus, Opening Day bonus and all of his incentives have already been paid out. The Red Sox (or another new club) would only owe him the prorated remainder of that $4MM salary — about $1.48MM as of this writing.
The Red Sox currently have Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello in the rotation. Righties Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski have both made starts out of the fifth spot in the rotation. The Sox have lost Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock and depth starter Chris Murphy to season-ending surgeries. Bryan Mata is on the injured list and just had a setback. Paxton would at least give the Sox a stabilizing force at the back of the rotation. (The Red Sox have also reportedly looked into the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon as an option.)
Gomes: Dodgers Seek “Impact” Rotation Arm
Starting pitching is known to be a Dodgers priority heading into next week’s trade deadline, and general manager Brandon Gomes didn’t shy away from that in speaking with the Dodgers’ beat last night. Gomes and manager Dave Roberts publicly discussed the “difficult” decision to designate James Paxton for assignment but acknowledged that with the slate of arms they have returning from the injured list (to say nothing of a potential trade acquisition), “now would be the best time to see if there’s interest” in Paxton before the deadline (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic). The Dodgers hope to trade Paxton, Ardaya reports, pointing out that a new team would only owe the lefty the prorated portion of his $4MM base salary; Paxton’s $3MM signing bonus, $2MM roster bonus and full slate of incentives have already been paid out.
On the team’s search for additional rotation help, Gomes made clear that the Dodgers aren’t prioritizing marginal upgrades or back-end innings eaters to help patch things over for the rest of the regular season. “Targeting starting pitching, but it’s going to be an impact-type arm,” Gomes said of his club’s approach to the trade deadline.
That’s a tall order, of course. The starting pitching market is generally thin. White Sox ace Garrett Crochet and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty are the two most impactful names expected to be widely available. High-profile targets like Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and, to a much lesser degree, the Cubs’ Justin Steele have at least been the subject of some speculation, but neither is expected to be traded by next Tuesday. As a rotation-hungry club with a deep stock of controllable young talent and high-end prospects, the Dodgers could put together a compelling offer to test the Tigers’ conviction on Skubal, but any such deal is a long shot and would face steep competition from the Orioles and other similarly positioned contenders.
[Related: Top 50 trade candidates for the 2024 MLB trade deadline]
ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez recently reported that Crochet sits atop the Dodgers’ deadline wish list. Given the lack of “impact” arms who can be controlled beyond the current season, that’s hardly a surprising development. Any team that acquires Crochet will have some trepidation about his workload — the lefty’s 107 1/3 innings this year exceed his combined career total since being drafted in 2020 — but there’s no denying his dominance. The former No. 11 overall pick sports a 3.02 ERA (2.35 FIP, 2.45 SIERA). His 35.2% strikeout rate is tops among the 164 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings this season. His 5.4% walk rate ranks 23rd among that same sub-set.
As evidenced by the Paxton DFA, the L.A. rotation is in a state of flux. The Dodgers are welcoming Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back from the injured list this week. Top prospect River Ryan made his MLB debut yesterday and tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the injured list until at least mid-August but is still expected to pitch again this season. There’s hope that recently optioned Bobby Miller can return to form and that former top starter Walker Buehler can come back from the injured list and still contribute late in the season. Other young, less-proven options for the Dodgers include Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski. Stone, in particular, has emerged as a key arm with 18 starts of 3.19 ERA ball.
If everyone’s healthy, the Dodgers arguably already have a formidable playoff staff — but that’s a sizable “if.” Crochet would add more of a question mark to the bunch than a definitive ace, given his workload questions, but it’s also possible the Dodgers could utilize him as a multi-inning reliever late in the season or even get him some closing work. That’s speculative, to be clear, but manager Dave Roberts stopped short last night of referring to team saves leader Evan Phillips as his “closer,” Jack Harris of the L.A. Times tweets. Phillips has hit a rough stretch recently, yielding nine runs in his past 7 1/3 innings.
A pitcher like Crochet could be an “impact” arm in either a starting or relief role. He likely holds extra appeal to the Dodgers, given not only his two extra seasons of club control but his bottom-of-the-barrel $800K salary. RosterResource projects that the Dodgers already have $326MM worth of luxury obligations, placing them in the top tier of penalization. As a team paying the tax for a third consecutive season, they’re subject to a 110% overage fee on any new players acquired. Crochet will have about $258K of his salary yet to be paid out come deadline day; he’d only cost the Dodgers (or another maximum-penalty CBT team) about $542K in additional salary.
Athletics’ Luis Medina Being Evaluated For UCL Injury
The A’s received a pair of unwelcome injury updates over the weekend, when righty Luis Medina was diagnosed with an injury to the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and outfielder Esteury Ruiz was pulled back from a minor league rehab assignment due to lingering discomfort in his ailing wrist (links to X via Martin Gallegos of MLB.com). Medina is headed for a second opinion on his elbow. Ruiz’s wrist will be reevaluated by a doctor today.
The 25-year-old Medina came to the A’s alongside lefties JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk in the trade that sent Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino to the Yankees. As it’s turned out, four of the five pitchers involved in that swap — Medina, Waldichuk, Montas, Trivino — have incurred significant injuries since the deal came together. Waldichuk and Trivino both had Tommy John surgery. Montas underwent shoulder surgery. Medina is now facing a prolonged absence himself, in all likelihood.
Medina started 17 games for the A’s last season. He struggled to an ERA north of 5.00 on the season as a whole but was generally solid after a shaky start. In his final 80 innings last year, the hard-throwing right-hander posted a 4.39 ERA (3.82 FIP, 4.75 SIERA) with a 22.3% strikeout rate, 12% walk rate and 44.3% ground-ball rate. Command has been an issue for Medina in the majors and upper minors alike, but that decent stretch over the final three months of the ’23 campaign was enough to land Medina a rotation opportunity in 2024.
He missed the first two-plus months of the season after sustaining a Grade 2 sprain of the medial collateral ligament in his right knee during spring training, but upon returning, Medina looked similar to that June through September form from last summer. From June 2 through July 6, Medina pitched 35 innings of 4.37 ERA ball across seven starts. His strikeout rate (15.9%) was down, as was his velocity (only by about 0.4 mph), but neither seemed like a major red flag for a pitcher returning from a notable knee injury. He was pulled mid-inning after giving up six runs in five frames against the Red Sox on July 11, however, and placed on the injured list with an elbow sprain shortly thereafter.
A confirmed UCL injury and second opinion from an external source are never good signs for any pitcher. There’s no indication yet that Medina will require surgery, but a the majority of UCL sprains culminate in Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure, or a hybrid of the two. There are certainly cases of pitchers rehabbing a UCL sprain and never requiring surgery — Medina’s own teammate, Mason Miller, missed four months with a sprain last year and has been dominant since returning — but those are more the exception than the rule. If Medina ultimately requires surgery, it could knock him out for a year or more, but he and the A’s will be hoping he can emulate Miller’s path.
As for Ruiz, he swiped 67 bases in 132 games last season but did so with a well below-average .254/.306/.345 batting line. He posted an even rougher .200/.270/.382 slash in 65 plate appearances this season. The A’s optioned him to Triple-A on April 1, and he hit .326/.423/.581 with three homers and seven steals in 11 games before being recalled to the majors and continuing to struggle at the plate. He’s been out since May 22 with a left injury that apparently hasn’t healed all the way just yet.
Ruiz’s gaudy minor league numbers continue to impress, but he’s yet to establish himself as a viable big league hitter (.243/.297/.343) and has thus far looked more the part of a fourth outfielder than a starter. He’s been leapfrogged by fellow trade acquisition JJ Bleday on the center field depth chart. Bleday is hitting .233/.314/.432 (114 wRC+) with a dozen homers in 405 plate appearances.
Dodgers Designate James Paxton For Assignment
3:40pm: The Dodgers made it official, announcing that they have selected Ryan and designated Paxton for assignment.
2:42pm: The Dodgers are designating veteran left-hander James Paxton for assignment, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The team has not yet formally announced the move.
Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another.
It’ll be a move that catches some off guard. Paxton has a solid enough 4.43 ERA and despite a laundry list of injury troubles in recent years has been the Dodgers’ healthiest starter. He’s tied with Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone for the team lead with 18 starts but sits well below both righties in terms of total innings, as he’s averaged fewer than five frames per start.
Paxton’s earned run average also belies some far less-encouraging numbers. His 16.4% strikeout rate is nearly six percentage points shy of the 22.3% league average, while his 12.3% walk rate is way north of the 8.2% average. He’s benefited from the help of a .267 average on balls in play that stands as the lowest mark of his career despite surrendering a career-high 90.8 mph average exit velocity and a 43.3% hard-hit rate that represents the second-worst mark of his big league tenure. Paxton has been hit particularly hard of late; dating back to June 5, he carries a 6.03 ERA in 37 1/3 innings (eight starts). Stretch that endpoint to mid-May, and Paxton has been torched for a 5.82 ERA in his past 11 starts — all while averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing.
The Dodgers are set to welcome both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw back to their rotation this week. Glasnow has been out since July 9 with lower back tightness and will end up only requiring a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list. Kershaw has yet to pitch this season while rehabbing from last November’s shoulder surgery. That veteran pair will join Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski as starting options for manager Dave Roberts, though the Dodgers are also rumored to be promoting top pitching prospect River Ryan for his debut this week. Both Ryan and Kershaw will require the Dodgers to open 40-man spots, and it seems Paxton’s DFA will create one of those two vacancies.
Beyond Kershaw and Glasnow, the Dodgers hope to have Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto back from the injured list at some point next month. Right-hander Bobby Miller was just optioned amid some ongoing struggles but gives the team another rotation option. And, of course, starting pitching is reportedly one of the Dodgers’ top priorities heading into next week’s trade deadline. It’d be a surprise if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman didn’t augment his rotation in some capacity.
As for Paxton, he’ll now either be released or traded within the next week. The veteran lefty has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and retain his full salary, so the Dodgers likely won’t even try to outright him. It’s easy enough to see a team on the hunt for rotation help show some interest, but at the same time it’ll be tough for any club to surrender much in a trade given Paxton’s recent struggles, his relatively notable salary and the fact that once he’s released, he’d be available for nothing more than the prorated league minimum.
The Orioles’ Oft-Overlooked Outfielder
The Orioles are as deep as any team in baseball when it comes to young position players. As the trade deadline approaches, that’s led to interminable speculation on top prospects like Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo — highly touted prospects who’ve yet to solidify themselves as one of Baltimore’s long-term pillars. But for all the understandable focus on that slate of top-100 talents, the O’s have more to offer. Perhaps chief among the team’s controllable change-of-scenery candidates is outfielder Kyle Stowers. Manager Brandon Hyde alluded to the possibility in chatting with the Baltimore beat this weekend (link via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).
“Kyle’s going to get a chance to be an everyday Major League player here at some point, either with us or with somebody else. Who knows?” Hyde said when discussing the 26-year-old outfielder and the positive impression he’s made on his manager this season. “You never know what this game is gonna bring, but he’s putting himself in great position.”
Stowers has indeed put himself in a position to be either quite useful to the Orioles or another club before long. There’s plenty of smoke and mirrors at play with his current .306 batting average and .500 slugging percentage, as those gaudy numbers have come in a sample of just 37 plate appearances and are propped up by an unsustainable .435 average on balls in play. Meanwhile, Stowers has fanned 13 times (35.1%) without taking a walk. In parts of three MLB seasons (2022-24), he’s taken 168 plate appearances and batted .229/.274/.369. He’s fanned at a 32.1% clip and walked in 4.8% of those plate appearances.
It’s not a particularly appealing batting line on the whole, but it’s come across five separate stints (dating back to his Aug. 2022 MLB debut) and with no consistent playing time. When Stowers, a 2019 second-round pick, has received steady playing time at the Triple-A level, he’s generally been a productive hitter. The lefty-swinging slugger carries a career .252/.350/.518 batting line with 56 homers, 55 doubles, five triples and seven steals in 1029 plate appearances with Baltimore’s top affiliate in Norfolk. Stowers has been between 12% and 30% better than average at the plate in each of his four seasons with the Tides, by measure of wRC+.
Defensively, he’s seen time at all three positions but logged most of his time in right field. Baseball America ranked him ninth among O’s prospects last year (and seventh the year prior), touting his above-average speed, plus power and plus arm. Stowers has long had some strikeout issues and an aggressive approach at the plate, but he’s also walked in a hearty 11.8% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He hits right-handed pitching better than lefties, as one would expect from a slugging lefty bat, but Stowers has posted an OPS between .781 and 1.018 versus lefties in each of the past four seasons (minors and majors combined). He might never be a star, but to this point in his career, the Stanford product has looked like he could be more than the prototypical platoon slugger with minimal defensive value.
With another 51 days of service this year, Stowers would reach a full season of MLB service time, thus putting him on pace for arbitration in the 2026-27 offseason and free agency in the 2029-30 offseason. If he spends fewer than 51 days on a big league roster or injured list, that timeline to free agency would be pushed back a year. However, he’d be a very likely Super Two candidate at that point, so his arbitration timeline would remain the same — he’d just be eligible four times rather than three before free agency.
Stowers is the type of interesting trade candidate who could appeal to both contending and non-contending teams alike. He’s had a decent amount of success in Triple-A, has at least a half decade of control remaining (plus a minor league option beyond the current season), and has a limited path to an everyday role with his current club. He’d appeal to a rebuilding club as a possible return for a trade chip or perhaps to a win-now club looking for an affordable upside play in the outfield corners. Both Meyer and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko have suggested recently that Stowers could be moved (likely for pitching).
It’s of course possible that he could be a factor for the Orioles themselves in future seasons, as Anthony Santander is a free agent this winter, while Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins could end up as trade or non-tender candidates themselves. However, even if the O’s move on from the veteran trio of Santander, Hays and Mullins before Opening Day 2025, they’ll still have Colton Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and Norby in the outfield mix. Both Norby and Mayo have primarily been infielders, but Baltimore’s infield is quite crowded — particularly if Jackson Holliday eventually seizes a spot — which could push Norby to left field and/or push Mayo to right field.
It’s all a “good problem to have,” but Stowers is 26 (27 in January) and down to one option year beyond the current campaign. As Hyde said, it shouldn’t come as a surprise one way or another if he’s getting a full look sooner than later. Just for fun, let’s see what MLBTR readers think about Stowers’ future with a poll:
What will the Orioles do with Kyle Stowers?
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Trade him before July 30 77% (2,232)
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Keep him -- he's part of the long-term outfield in Baltimore. 13% (383)
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Trade him this offseason 10% (277)
Total votes: 2,892
Mets Designate Cole Sulser For Assignment
The Mets have designated right-handed reliever Cole Sulser for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to catcher Logan Porter, whose previously reported split major league deal is now official. Porter, who still has multiple minor league option years remaining, has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse.
Sulser, 34, signed a minor league deal over the winter and pitched 4 2/3 innings for the Mets back in April and May. He allowed five runs on six hits and three walks with seven punchouts during that short stint. He’s spent the majority of the season in Triple-A, where he’s posted a sparkling 1.48 earned run average in 30 1/3 frames. Excellent as that mark has been, however, Sulser has also walked 13.2% of his opponents and benefited massively from a .182 average on balls in play. Even with a sharp 28.1% strikeout rate and huge 56.7% grounder rate, it’s fair to expect a good bit of ERA regression.
For one season with the Orioles, Sulser looked to have broken out as a quality big league reliever. He pitched 63 1/3 innings for Baltimore in 2021 and turned in a 2.70 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 41.3% ground-ball rate. Traded to the Marlins alongside Tanner Scott the following offseason, Sulser hit an immediate wall. From 2022-24, he’s pitched 44 MLB innings between the Fish, D-backs and Mets but limped to a 5.93 ERA. He’s still fanned just over a quarter of his opponents, but Sulser has done so with an 11.3% walk rate and with immense susceptibility to home runs (1.84 HR/9). He’s also seen a heater that averaged 93.2 mph back in ’21 dip to an average of 91.9 mph this year (both figures via Statcast).
The Mets will either trade Sulser, release him or place him on outright waivers within the next five days. Waivers would be an additional 48-hour process from the point at which he’s placed. Within a week’s time, he’ll know the outcome of his DFA.
GM Dana Brown On Astros’ Starting Pitching Pursuit
The Astros have a well-known need in the rotation, and general manager Dana Brown, never afraid to speak candidly, was open about his desire to upgrade/deepen the rotation mix in the next eight days in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link, with audio).
“Try go to big and see if there’s a deal that makes sense for the organization,” Brown said of his efforts to add a starter. “If that don’t work, we’ll go down to mid-level and hopefully we can land something there. But it doesn’t hurt to ask. When you go through this, ask and thou shall receive sometimes. We want to try to go big, and if we can’t get the big thing done, we’ll try to go mid-level so we can get through this.”
Brown went on to note that with Luis Garcia and Justin Verlander both on the mend, bringing in a potential deadline acquisition to further bolster the rotation would allow the Astros to work from a six-man rotation “at times” down the stretch. With Garcia returning from Tommy John surgery, Verlander already having gone through a pair of IL stints in 2024, and breakout righty Ronel Blanco likely to reach a new career-high in innings pitched before the end of the month, there’s good reason for the ‘Stros to target a six-man group down the stretch.
That six-man group would include Blanco, Verlander, Garcia, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and a potential deadline pickup. Rookie right-handers Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss would presumably remain on hand as a depth options if needed (although speculatively speaking, either could be a secondary piece in a trade to bring in a more established starter).
The trade market is hardly teeming with “go big” types of starting pitchers, though White Sox ace Garrett Crochet stands as one obviously available name in that regard. Brown and his staff could certainly try to pry Crochet loose from Chicago or make an even longer-shot bid for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but Skubal isn’t expected to change hands and the Astros’ farm system isn’t all that well regarded. That’s not a surprise for a team that typically picks near the back of the draft due to strong finishes in the standings and forfeited a pick to sign Josh Hader — but it’s a notable roadblock to getting a “big” deal across the finish line.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the Astros simply don’t have the young talent to pull off a trade for a starting pitcher of note. Outfielder Jacob Melton is widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects, ranking 67th at MLB.com and 68th at Baseball America. He’s ranked 78th at FanGraphs, where the aforementioned Bloss lands in the No. 100 spot on their own leaguewide prospect rankings. Bloss and other young big leaguers like Arrighetti and outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido could also hold appeal to other teams. Righty A.J. Blubaugh has pitched well in Triple-A for much of the season. Prospects like outfielder Zach Cole and third baseman Zach Dezenzo are both in Double-A and could be big league options by next year. The Astros organization may not be bursting with elite prospects, but there are some interesting names knocking on the door of the majors.
The Astros are a typically high-payroll club, which also enables them to provide some benefit to potential sellers in the form of taking on guaranteed salary. They’re already sitting on a record-high payroll and are just a few hundred thousand dollars from crossing into the second tier of luxury penalization, per RosterResource. However, they’re also a first-year payor right now after spending the ’23 season under the tax line, and as such, they’d only be jumping from a 20% overage tax to a 32% tax in crossing that line. If the Astros were to tack on another $20MM of luxury obligations, they’d be on the cusp of the third tier, at which point their top pick in the 2025 draft would be pushed back 10 spots, but that’s quite a ways from reality at the moment.
Moreover, it doesn’t sound as though it’ll be a Crochet/Skubal type or bust. “If we can get a mid-level guy and we get Garcia and Verlander back,” said Brown later in that same radio appearance, “that would be massive to this club.”
Astros starters are tied for 16th in the majors with a 4.20 ERA, though that number includes some strong early-season work from righty Cristian Javier, who won’t be back in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fellow righty Jose Urquidy was also lost for the season due to UCL surgery, while righty J.P. France had shoulder surgery last month. It’s not clear right now when or whether Lance McCullers Jr. will return this season after a setback in his recovery from flexor surgery.
Brown struggled immensely early in the season but has turned things around since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire (2.55 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate in 81 1/3 innings). Blanco, who tossed the season’s first no-hitter back on April 1, has been the Astros’ rock in 2024, logging a 2.75 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. Valdez and Verlander have pitched well when healthy but both have been on the IL this season.
Houston sat a whopping 10 games out of first place as recently as June 18, but closed that gap emphatically with a 19-7 run in its past 26 games — including taking two of three against the now formerly division-leading Mariners just this weekend. The Astros and Mariners are now tied for the top spot in the AL West.
Phillies Re-Sign David Dahl To Minor League Deal
The Phillies re-signed outfielder David Dahl to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic (X link). Dahl was designated for assignment by the Phils back on July 9 and rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency a couple days later.
Dahl, 30, played just four big league games in 2022-23 before resurfacing with the Phils earlier this summer. The former No. 10 overall draft pick and longtime Rockies top prospect signed a minor league deal over the winter and blitzed through Triple-A opposition with a .340/.416/.660 batting line and a dozen homers in 166 trips to the plate prior to his promotion. He homered twice in his first three games back in the big leagues, setting the stage for a potential Cinderella comeback, but Dahl struggled to a .154/.196/.231 slash in 56 plate appearances thereafter.
Back in 2016, Dahl looked to be on the cusp of stardom. He reached the majors in his age-22 season after destroying minor league pitching and hit .315/.359/.500 with seven homers and five steals in his first 237 major league plate appearances. Dahl continued to hit well in subsequent seasons but missed substantial time due to injury as well. From 2016-19, he turned in a .297/.346/.521 batting line in 921 big league plate appearances but did so while enduring lengthy IL stints owing to back, ankle, foot and ribcage injuries. Add that to a lacerated spleen suffered as a prospect (which resulted in surgery to remove the organ entirely), and Dahl’s injury history quickly became lengthy and alarming.
That series of health maladies took its toll on the talented young outfielder. In 390 plate appearances dating back to 2020, Dahl has authored a tepid .200/.237/.318 slash in the majors. This year’s scintillating output in Lehigh Valley and his fast start following his promotion lend some hope that there’s still some of that 2016-19 form buried away. For now, he’ll head back to the IronPigs and try to force his way back into the Phillies’ major league plans.