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Julio Rodriguez

Dylan Cease Tops Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

By Simon Hampton | December 10, 2022 at 10:15am CDT

One of the big new additions to the collective bargaining agreement signed between the league and the players was the implementation of a $50MM bonus pool set aside for players with less than three years of league service time.

The pool would be handed out to the top 100 eligible players, with MLB’s WAR metric determining which players made the list. Beyond that, further bonuses could be earned for qualified players if they ranked in the top two of Rookie of the Year, top five in MVP or Cy Young, as well as being named in the first or second All-MLB team.

According to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease topped the class in 2022, taking home a bonus of $2,457,426, in addition to his $750K base salary. Cease threw 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball for Chicago this year, finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting. That finish earned him $1.75MM in addition to the $707,425 he earned for his WAR ranking. 2022 was Cease’s last pre-arbitration season, so he won’t be eligible for the bonus pool after the 2023 season.

The Astros’ Yordan Alvarez was the top hitter on the list, as he took home a $2,381,143 bonus. Alvarez torched pitching to the tune of a .306/.406/.613 line with 37 home runs, finishing third in AL MVP voting. He picked up $881,143 as the top ranked player via the WAR metric, and an additional $1.5MM for his MVP finish. He also won’t be eligible for the pool next season.

Here’s the top ten bonus pool earners (all of these figures are in addition to the player’s base salary):

  • Dylan Cease: $2,457,426
  • Yordan Alvarez: $2,381,143
  • Alek Manoah: $2,191,023
  • Zac Gallen: $1,670,875
  • Julio Rodriguez: $1,550,850
  • Michael Harris: $1,361,435
  • Emmanuel Clase: $1,354,962
  • Andres Gimenez: $1,308,805
  • Adley Rutschman: $1,177,555
  • Kyle Tucker: $1,146,555

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Atlanta’s Spencer Strider was the only other player to earn a bonus greater than $1MM, while four more players (Sean Murphy, Tommy Edman, Will Smith and Ryan Helsley) earned more than $700K, with another eleven players (Steven Kwan, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Nestor Cortes, Logan Webb, Shane McClanahan, Cal Raleigh, Daulton Varsho, Nico Hoerner, Triston McKenzie and Tony Gonsolin) earned a bonus greater than $500K.

Each player’s team will pay out the bonuses by December 23, but they will be reimbursed by the Commissioner’s Office.

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Chicago White Sox Collective Bargaining Agreement Houston Astros Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool Adley Rutschman Alejandro Kirk Alek Manoah Andres Gimenez Bo Bichette Cal Raleigh Daulton Varsho Dylan Cease Emmanuel Clase Julio Rodriguez Kyle Tucker Logan Webb Nestor Cortes Nico Hoerner Ryan Helsley Sean Murphy Shane McClanahan Spencer Strider Steven Kwan Tommy Edman Tony Gonsolin Triston McKenzie Will Smith Yordan Alvarez Zac Gallen

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Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

By Anthony Franco | November 17, 2022 at 6:47pm CDT

AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Newsstand Aaron Judge Andres Gimenez Jose Altuve Jose Ramirez Julio Rodriguez Justin Verlander Mike Trout Shohei Ohtani Xander Bogaerts Yordan Alvarez

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Julio Rodriguez Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

By Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco | November 14, 2022 at 5:56pm CDT

Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has won the Rookie of the Year award in the American League for 2022, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman finished second in the voting, while Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan checked in third.

This year’s rookie class in the Junior Circuit was remarkable, headlined by Rodríguez and Rutschman. The pair of top prospects both hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster as their Opening Day center fielder, looking to build off their surprising 90-win campaign in 2021. The young outfielder got off to a tough start, thanks in part to a number of questionable strike calls in the early going, but he eventually emerged as the best position player on a good Seattle club.

Over 560 plate appearances, Rodríguez posted a .284/.345/.509 line. He connected on 28 home runs and swiped 25 bases in 32 attempts, one of just four players (Kyle Tucker, Adolis García and Marcus Semien being the others) to reach 25 longballs and steals apiece. Rodríguez was particularly electric in the second half, putting up a .303/.361/.576 line coming out of the All-Star Break to help Seattle cruise to its first postseason appearance in more than two decades.

Rodríguez also impressed on the other side of the ball, starting 130 games and playing 1126 2/3 innings in center field. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast credited him with above-average defense, no small feat for a player whom some prospect evaluators suggested might be a better fit for right field. The 21-year-old looks to have put any questions about his defensive home to bed for the time being.

While Rodríguez is surely thrilled to secure Rookie of the Year honors on its own merits, the selection has a tangible effect on the team as well. The new collective bargaining agreement contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That’s a moot point for Rodríguez, who’d have qualified for a full service year after tallying 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless. He also signed a massive contract extension midseason that overwrites his path to arbitration and free agency.

The second portion of the PPI does come into effect, though. A team that promotes a player for a full service year who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria and entered the year with less than 60 days of MLB service who subsequently finishes top two in ROY balloting (or top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration seasons) earns a bonus draft pick after the first round. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster all year, so they’ll collect an extra pick in the 2023 draft in recognition of his achievements.

Rutschman and Kwan check in as runners-up after very strong years in their own right. Baltimore’s catcher hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs in 470 plate appearances. His second-place finish earns him a full year of service time as well. Kwan doesn’t that get that honor for third place, but he earned a full service year after breaking camp in Cleveland regardless. Rutschman’s former teammate at Oregon State, Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 across 638 plate appearances to help the Guards to a division title.

Rodríguez received 29 of 30 first-place votes, while Rutschman collected the other. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the lone voter to place Rutschman ahead of Rodríguez, explained his thought process in a well-reasoned Twitter thread. Rodríguez was the only player to be named on all 30 ballots. Rutschman was selected on 28 ballots, while Kwan earned 24 combined second or third-place votes. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña and Mariners righty George Kirby also picked up some support.

Full vote breakdown found here.

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Baltimore Orioles Cleveland Guardians Newsstand Seattle Mariners Adley Rutschman Bobby Witt Jr. George Kirby Jeremy Pena Julio Rodriguez Steven Kwan

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Jesse Winker, Andres Munoz Undergo Surgeries

By Anthony Franco | October 19, 2022 at 9:43pm CDT

The Mariners season came to an end last week, as Seattle’s first playoff berth in two decades was cut short in the Divisional Round. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round, the M’s were dealt a sweep by their division rivals in Houston.

With the year wrapped up, a couple key Mariners players are going under the knife. Corner outfielder Jesse Winker underwent a procedure on his left knee, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto informed reporters (including Jake García of KING 5 News). He’ll also undergo neck surgery at some point in the future. A cervical disc bulge in his neck sent Winker to the injured list just before the start of the playoffs, causing him to miss Seattle’s postseason run.

Meanwhile, reliever Andrés Muñoz will need to undergo surgery on his foot, Dipoto said (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Muñoz pitched through whatever discomfort had been bothering him and didn’t spend any time on the injured list this season. He was also called upon by skipper Scott Servais in all three games of the ALDS.

Dipoto didn’t provide many specifics about either player’s surgeries, although there’s no indication either is expected to be hampered by next Spring Training. Winker figures to get an opportunity to again cement himself as the organization’s primary left fielder. Acquired from the Reds as part of a deal that saw the M’s assume the remainder of Eugenio Suárez’s contract, Winker had a tough debut season in the Pacific Northwest.

He hit .219/.344/.344 through 547 plate appearances. An excellent 15.4% walk rate was enough to prop up slightly above-average offensive production overall, but it was markedly below his .292/.392/.552 combined line from 2020-21. Paired with subpar defensive marks in left field, Winker rated right around replacement level. Seattle signed the 29-year-old to a two-year contract to avoid arbitration in June. He’ll make $8.25MM in 2023 and hit free agency at the end of the year.

Muñoz, on the other hand, should be a fixture on the roster for quite some time. The M’s signed the hard-throwing righty to a $7.5MM guarantee last offseason on the heels of two seasons mostly lost to Tommy John surgery. They tacked on an extra three seasons of potential club control, through 2028, a move that looks excellent after the 23-year-old returned with 65 innings of 2.49 ERA ball this season. Muñoz punched out an otherworldly 38.7% of opposing hitters on the back of a triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider and he now looks like one of the best late-game weapons in the sport.

In other injury updates, Dipoto announced that backstop Cal Raleigh was headed to see a specialist after tearing a ligament in his left thumb (via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). It isn’t clear if he’ll eventually have to undergo surgery. Star center fielder Julio Rodríguez played through a small finger fracture at the end of the year. Neither seems to be in danger of missing any time at the start of next season.

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Seattle Mariners Andres Munoz Cal Raleigh Jesse Winker Julio Rodriguez

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Mariners Activate Julio Rodriguez

By Mark Polishuk | October 3, 2022 at 4:55pm CDT

Oct. 3: The Mariners have made it official, announcing that Rodriguez has been reinstated from the IL, with catcher Curt Casali being reinstated from the paternity list. In corresponding moves, catcher Brian O’Keefe and infielder Abraham Toro were optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. Additionally, right-hander Phillips Valdez, who was designated for assignment last week, cleared waivers and was outrighted to Tacoma.

Oct. 2: Monday is the first day that Julio Rodriguez is eligible to be activated from the 10-day injured list, and Mariners manager Scott Servais said the team is hoping that the star rookie will indeed be ready to return as soon as possible.  Servais told The Seattle Times’ Shane Lantz and other reporters that Rodriguez will take part in baseball activities (including “a bunch of swings“) today, and if he feels okay, Rodriguez will be back in the lineup for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers.

Rodriguez has been sidelined by a lower back strain, and though the injury wasn’t thought to be too serious, the Mariners felt an IL stint was necessary given how Rodriguez had been missing games even prior to his placement on the injured list.  Even with the M’s in the heat of the postseason chase, the team naturally didn’t want to take any risks with their young cornerstone, and the caution paid off — Seattle still clinched a wild card berth, and will be heading to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

The next step is to get the team as close to peak form as possible, and the Mariners will need Rodriguez to be ready to go.  As Servais noted, “the thing you always worry about when you are out 10 days is timing.  What’s the timing going to be like at the plate?….That’s why I want to get Julio in there as soon as we can, to see how his body reacts and also get him as many at-bats as we can, and feel good about where he is at heading into the playoffs.”

This is Rodriguez’s second IL stint of his rookie season, as he also missed just slightly beyond the 10-day minimum in late July and early August due to a right wrist contusion.  These brief injury absences have been pretty much the only down notes in an otherwise spectacular debut for Rodriguez, who has hit .280/.342/.502 with 27 homers and 25 steals over 549 plate appearances.  Rodriguez is the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors, and the Mariners have already cemented him as the face of the franchise by signing J-Rod to a long-term extension that is worth at least $210MM over 12 years (and could ultimately be a whopping 18-year, $470MM deal).

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Seattle Mariners Julio Rodriguez Phillips Valdez

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Mariners Expect To Activate Eugenio Suarez On Tuesday

By Anthony Franco | September 26, 2022 at 8:15pm CDT

The Mariners are likely to reinstate Eugenio Suárez from the injured list tomorrow, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13). He’ll be deployed as a designated hitter initially, as the fracture in his right index finger is still inhibiting him defensively.

In even better news for the M’s, Dipoto said star center fielder Julio Rodríguez “looks great” as he rehabs from the lower back strain that sent him to the injured list last week. Dipoto indicated the club anticipates he’ll be ready for reinstatement when first eligible next Monday.

Getting both players back after brief absences is critical for a Mariners team trying to secure its first playoff berth in over two decades. The M’s enter play Monday with an 83-69 record that has them in possession of the American League’s final Wild Card spot. They’re four games clear of the Orioles, and they’re within 2 1/2 games of both the Blue Jays and Rays as they jockey for Wild Card position.

Assuming the Mariners hold onto a playoff spot in some capacity, they look likely to enter the postseason with both Suárez and Rodríguez on the roster. That duo has arguably been Seattle’s top two position players this year. Rodríguez has emerged as the face of the franchise with an incredible rookie season, hitting .280/.342/.502 with 27 home runs and 25 stolen bases across 549 plate appearances. Suárez, meanwhile, leads the team with 31 homers and has a .235/.335/.470 line. It has been a surprising bounceback after a .198/.286/.428 showing his final year with the Reds.

The Mariners have turned to Ty France and Abraham Toro at third base in Suárez’s absence. They’ll presumably continue to split the hot corner until he’s ready to return to action defensively, while Jesse Winker will probably get more action in left field after serving as the DH of late. That’d come at the expense of playing time for Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell. Center field, meanwhile, has been the purview of Jarred Kelenic since Rodríguez went down.

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Seattle Mariners Eugenio Suarez Julio Rodriguez

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Mariners Place Julio Rodriguez On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | September 23, 2022 at 6:43pm CDT

The Mariners announced they’ve placed Julio Rodríguez on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain. Seattle recalled Taylor Trammell from Triple-A Tacoma to take the vacated active roster spot.

Rodríguez has battled back soreness for a few days, and the issue was serious enough the club sent him for an MRI this afternoon. Manager Scott Servais told reporters this evening the team’s doctors were still evaluating the imaging results results before determining whether an IL stint would be necessary (via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Further specifics on Rodríguez’s condition aren’t clear, but the issue is evidently serious enough it’ll cost him at least a week and a half.

There are 12 days remaining in the regular season, so it’s possible Rodríguez makes it back by the start of the postseason. Needless to say, the M’s would surely be better off if he can get back in time for the opening round of the playoffs. With a four-game cushion over the Orioles for the American League’s final Wild Card spot, the Mariners are in strong position to secure their first postseason berth in over two decades. Embarking on a long playoff run would certainly be a lot tougher without the AL Rookie of the Year candidate, as Rodríguez is already Seattle’s best player.

During his debut campaign, Rodríguez has connected on 27 home runs and stolen 25 bases. He’s the only player in the majors who has already eclipsed 25 homers and steals apiece, and he owns an overall .280/.342/.502 line through 549 plate appearances. Rodríguez has paired that excellent offensive production with above-average center field defense in cementing himself among the sport’s top young stars.

For whatever time Rodríguez is out, the Mariners are set to turn to one of their other former top outfield prospects. Jarred Kelenic has yet to cement himself as a big league regular, owning a .170/.250/.340 line over 504 MLB plate appearances. The one-time sixth overall pick and consensus top prospect just recently turned 23 years old, though, and he’s raked at a .295/.365/.557 clip in 86 games in Tacoma this year. Servais confirmed that Kelenic would be the everyday center fielder for as long as Rodríguez is out of action (Jude link).

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Seattle Mariners Jarred Kelenic Julio Rodriguez

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Julio Rodríguez Undergoing MRI Due To Lower Back Tightness

By Maury Ahram | September 22, 2022 at 8:12pm CDT

Mariners 21-year-old rookie superstar Julio Rodríguez left tonight’s game with lower back tightness, furthering the saga that began earlier this week. As reported by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, Rodríguez did not undergo an MRI when he first experienced the lower back tightness over the weekend in Anaheim, but is now scheduled to receive imaging tomorrow in Kansas City. When asked about Rodríguez after the game, Mariners manager Scott Servais labeled the young star’s back troubles as “concerning.”

Rodríguez is having a fantastic start to his career, slashing .279/.341/.499 for an OPS of .840 and a WRC+ of 143, the second highest for qualified CF, only behind MVP-candidate Aaron Judge. His strong performance earned him a trip to the All-Star game, and he is the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

An extended absence would be tough to weather for the Mariners, who recently signed a massive extension with Rodríguez that can run through the 2039 season and are in the hunt for a wildcard spot, currently two games back of Toronto for the first wildcard spot and tied with Tampa Bay for the second spot. The Mariners have also recently placed Eugenio Suárez on the 10-day injured list with a fracture in the tip of his right index finger.

Rodríguez’s presence in the lineup every day has been a much-needed bat for a paltry Seattle offense. Seattle’s team slash line of .227/.311/.388 features the second third-lowest batting average in the league and roughly league-average OBP, SLG, and OPS. Even with these struggles, if the regular season ended today, the Mariners would be in the postseason.

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Seattle Mariners Julio Rodriguez

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AL Notes: Rodriguez, Cabrera, Story, Eovaldi, Red Sox

By Mark Polishuk | September 18, 2022 at 10:08pm CDT

Julio Rodriguez has missed the Mariners’ last two games due to lower back soreness, and the rookie star told The Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish and other reporters that “I feel a few days of rest will be the best thing for it.”  There’s a chance Rodriguez could be back as early as Monday’s game with the Angels, though manager Scott Servais noted that the situation is “day to day,” especially since Monday’s contest is an afternoon start.

As much as Seattle needs all hands on deck for its playoff chase, nobody wants to risk a longer-term injury to Rodriguez, who has already emerged as one of baseball’s brightest stars.  After a brief slump in August, Rodriguez has a whopping 1.259 OPS over 59 plate appearances in September, even though he said is still getting used to the physical toll of a full Major League season.  “I’m not familiar with playing for such a long time,” Rodriguez said.  “It’s been teaching me a few things and I’m learning about my body and how to keep it healthy.”

While the Mariners hope Rodriguez’s rookie year will be extending deep into October, here are some more items from around the American League…

  • The Tigers will activate Miguel Cabrera from the 10-day injured list on Monday, and infielder Kody Clemens has already been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Cabrera on the active roster.  A left biceps strain has kept Cabrera on the shelf since September 2, but he’ll return for some more action in his 20th Major League season.  Over 393 PA this year, Cabrera is hitting .256/.305/.317 with four home runs.  Since a milestone watch is inevitably attached to Cabrera, the veteran slugger’s 506 career homers is three back of Gary Sheffield for 26th place on the all-time list, and Cabrera’s 3079 career hits put him 10 behind Ichiro Suzuki for 24th all-time.
  • Trevor Story has missed five games due to left heel soreness, but he is tentatively slated to return to the Red Sox lineup on Tuesday, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams).  In other injury news, Nathan Eovaldi threw 65 pitches during a four-inning simulated game today, and the next step could be a minor league rehab game on Friday.  Eovaldi has missed almost a full month due to right shoulder inflammation, but is hoping to get back to the mound at least one more start with the Sox before the season is over.
  • The Red Sox designated Kevin Plawecki for assignment after Friday night’s game, and both the late timing of the transaction and the transaction itself didn’t sit well within the clubhouse.  Both Eovaldi and Rich Hill spoke to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford about Plawecki’s popularity and the importance of veteran leaders in general on a team, with Eovaldi saying “I think sometimes that goes a little further than productivity or whatever on the field.”  After today’s 13-3 victory over the Royals, McWilliams and other reporters noted that the Sox were playing Robyn’s “Dancing On My Own” within the clubhouse, a song adopted by Plawecki as both a walkup song and as a team anthem in 2021.
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Mariners Sign Julio Rodriguez To Extension

By Steve Adams | August 26, 2022 at 10:45pm CDT

The Mariners have locked up one of the sport’s brightest young stars on a record-setting contract, announcing late Friday night they’ve signed Rookie of the Year candidate Julio Rodriguez to an extension. The deal, which begins this season, guarantees him $210MM over 12 years and contains both player and club options that can extend the length of the contract and push the total value as high as $470MM. Rodriguez, an Octagon client, also reportedly receives a full no-trade clause.

It is one of the more complex contracts agreed upon in major league history. According to reports from ESPN’s Jeff Passan and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, Rodriguez will make $120MM through 2029. Per Rosenthal, that takes the form of a $15MM signing bonus to be paid up front, with $105MM to be distributed between 2023-29. After the contract’s seventh year (2028), the Mariners must decide whether to effectively re-extend Rodriguez for either eight or ten years, with the size and value of that long-term “club option” dependent on how Rodriguez finishes in MVP voting.

At minimum, Seattle will be deciding on whether to extend the contract by eight years and another $200MM. That figure could escalate as follows, depending on Rodriguez’s finishes in MVP balloting over the next seven years:

  • $240MM over eight years with two or three top ten finishes
  • $260MM over eight years with four top ten finishes
  • $280MM over eight years if he wins an MVP and finishes in the top five once more or finishes in the top five of MVP balloting on three occasions
  • $350MM over ten years if he wins two MVP awards or finishes among the top five in balloting on four occasions

In the event Rodriguez hits that highest threshold and the Mariners exercise the option, the contract would max out at 18 years and $470MM in total value.

If the Mariners do not exercise their multi-year option after Year 7, Rodriguez will have a five-year, $90MM player option he can exercise after Year 8 of the contract. (That option value could escalate as high as $125.5MM based on his finishes in Silver Slugger voting and All-Star appearances). That $90MM figure is considered guaranteed money, as is the case with all player options. Between the $120MM he’ll be paid over the next eight seasons and the $90MM base value of the player option, Rodriguez’s guarantee lands at the aforementioned $210MM. There is, of course, a scenario where the Mariners do not pick up their 8- to 10-year “club option,” and Rodriguez also declines his five-year “player option,” which would then allow him to reach free agency after collecting $120MM over eight years, when he’ll be heading into his age-30 campaign.

Rodriguez, 21, broke camp with the Mariners this season and, after a rough couple of weeks to begin the year, burst into immediate stardom and has established himself as one of the frontrunners for Rookie of the Year honors. He’s currently hitting .269/.328/.471 with 20 home runs, 19 doubles, three triples and 23 steals (in 29 tries) — plus above-average defensive contributions in center field.

Those numbers are at least slightly skewed by a poor start to the year in which Rodriguez batted .136/.208/.159 with a 45% strikeout rate. Dating back to April 22, Rodriguez has mashed at a .285/.342/.508 clip. That production is about 46% better than league average after weighting for park and league, by measure of wRC+, which places him in a three-way tie with Alex Bregman and the also recently-extended Austin Riley for 12th-best among qualified Major League hitters. Rodriguez also ranks 13th in the Majors in both average exit velocity (92 mph) and hard-hit rate (49.6%) in that time, and his 14.9% barrel rate is MLB’s ninth-best mark.

Add in the fact that he’s done all of this at 21 years of age and after skipping the Triple-A level entirely, and his rookie season becomes all the more remarkable. Given that youth and lack of upper-minors seasoning, it’s quite possible that even though Rodriguez already ranks among the game’s best hitters, we’ve yet to see the best he has to offer.

From a defensive standpoint, Rodriguez has more than held his own in center field this season, turning in positive marks in Defensive Runs Saved (2), Ultimate Zone Rating (0.3) and Outs Above Average (5). Many scouting reports penned before his MLB debut suggested that as Rodriguez ages and continues to fill out, he could be destined for a corner outfield slot, but given his 70- or even 80-grade raw power and the solid work he’s flashed in center this season, he’ll have both the bat and likely the defensive chops to be an above-average contributor in right or left field.

The $210MM guarantee will give Rodriguez the record for largest contract ever signed by a player with under a year of Major League service time. That distinction currently belongs to Rays shortstop Wander Franco, who inked an 11-year, $182MM extension last November.

Rodriguez will topple that mark with ease, although it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison. Franco wasn’t promoted until midseason and inked his deal in the winter, when the Rays had six full seasons of club control left over him. Because Rodriguez made the Opening Day roster, he’ll get a full year of service in 2022 and would “only” have had five additional years of club control remaining. In that respect, he could technically be considered more of a one-plus player (between one and two years of service time), although even when viewing the contract through that lens, it’s still a record-setting agreement; Ke’Bryan Hayes’ $70MM extension in Pittsburgh was the previous record for a player with between one and two years of service.

Regardless of which service bracket one thinks more aptly applies to Rodriguez, this new deal now stands as the largest contract ever promised to a player with fewer than two years of Major League service time. In that aspect, Rodriguez and the Major League Baseball Players Association are surely pleased to see the precedent for young, superstar extensions moved even further forward.

All that said, there’s still potential for the contract to be quite favorable for the Mariners. Rodriguez would’ve likely earned near the league minimum in salary over the next two seasons (plus any payouts from the newly collectively bargained bonus pool for pre-arbitration players). A player with his upside and early dominance would likely have done quite well in arbitration, and while we can never know exactly how much he might’ve earned through that process, arbitration is generally based on precedent. Looking for recent comparables, Mookie Betts secured $57.5MM for his three arbitration seasons. If we put Rodriguez into that broad vicinity, his remaining five years of club control might have netted him somewhere in the range of $60MM — perhaps a few million more if he’d taken home an MVP Award and/or pushed the Betts precedent a bit further.

Rodriguez will be paid $15MM on average over the next eight seasons, with at least two free agent seasons bought out. That obviously pales in comparison to what he could’ve earned on the open market had he gone year-to-year and hit the free-agent market in advance of his age-27 season, and the Mariners will have an opportunity to keep him from hitting free agency at any point in his prime. That risk-reward tradeoff is the nature of early contract extensions, of course. There’s obviously ample risk of injury or downturn in performance for Rodriguez, all of which is baked into the relative discount rate for those open-market seasons.

From a team payroll vantage point, there’s ample room for Seattle to make a commitment of this nature. A significant portion of the team’s recent rebuild was dedicated to clearing long-term clutter from the books — e.g., the Robinson Cano trade — and the team’s long-term commitments are now rather minimal. Left-hander Robbie Ray is signed through the 2026 season, as is shortstop J.P. Crawford, but they’ll combine for just $37MM at that point. That would’ve only been Rodriguez’s fifth big league season, so the salaries on his contract will not quite have escalated to their maximum levels.

Looking more short-term, the books are also still accommodating. The Mariners, who’ll see veterans Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier reach free agency at season’s end, had just over $63MM in guaranteed money on the 2023 payroll prior to this contract. That number doesn’t include an $8MM option for righty Chris Flexen, nor does it include a handful of arbitration raises: Luis Castillo (earning $7.35MM this season), Diego Castillo ($2.315MM), Paul Sewald ($1.735MM), Ty France (pre-arb) and Erik Swanson (pre-arb).

It’s a momentous day in Mariners history, one that firmly drives home the organization’s “win-now” mentality as it inches toward a postseason berth that would smash a two-decade playoff drought — currently the longest in major North American professional sports. There’s risk for both parties, but the contract is a continuation of the ever-growing trend of extending young stars at nine-figure rates that guarantee a player’s entire prime. The contract also locks Rodriguez down as the new face of Mariners baseball for the next decade-plus, ensuring them a charismatic, marketable star around whom to both build the roster and sell the product to the fanbase.

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing an extension worth more than $200MM guaranteed and as much as $450MM in total value. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the contract length and exact guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the agreement was in place. Passan and  provided specifics on the financials. Rosenthal also reported the deal contained a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Julio Rodriguez

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