Twins Looking Into Rental Starters
The 54-42 Twins enter the second half of the 2024 season sitting a dozen games over .500 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. After falling behind both the Guardians and Royals early in the year, they’ve leapfrogged Kansas City (54-45) and sit a manageable four and a half games back of Cleveland (58-37) for the division lead. They’re lining up to act as clear buyers at the deadline, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that Minnesota would like to add another arm in the rotation — likely a rental.
Adding a starter who’s only controlled through season’s end is sensible for the Twins but a departure from the types of rotation arms they’ve targeted at recent trade efforts. It’s worth remembering that Twins ownership slashed payroll meaningfully this past offseason, cutting down from 2023’s mark of around $155MM to this season’s Opening Day mark of about $127.5MM. That came amid uncertainty regarding the future of the Twins’ television contract with Bally Sports, and given that the eventual resolution was a one-year deal to remain with Bally, it’s not surprising that the club might prefer to avoid committing substantial salary to the 2025 books in the form of acquiring a more controllable arm. (Although to be clear, there’s no indication ownership would be staunchly opposed to adding to the ’25 books.)
A short-term stopgap in the rotation is sensible for reasons beyond the 2025 payroll, of course. The Twins could currently use some extra innings in the back half of the rotation, where Chris Paddack has had an inconsistent season as he pushes his workload back to levels he hasn’t seen since 2019 in what is his first season back from a second career Tommy John surgery. Rookie right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson has enjoyed a breakout year but is 23 innings shy of last season’s total of 118 1/3 innings. Bringing in a veteran arm would offer some stability behind the staff-leading trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.
Adding to the appeal of a rental, the Twins’ entire slate of 2024 rotation options is controlled/signed beyond the current season. Lopez is signed through 2027. Ryan and Ober are controllable via arbitration through that same year. Paddack is signed through 2025 and presumably won’t have as many workload concerns next year. Woods Richardson can’t reach free agency until the 2030-31 offseason.
The organization’s top two pitching prospects, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, are both in the upper minors and could be in the mix for starts next year as well. (Festa has already made his MLB debut in 2024, though he’s been hit hard in a pair of spot starts.) That doesn’t even include hometown righty Louie Varland, who opened the season as the Twins’ fifth starter but has fallen behind Woods Richardson and Festa on the depth chart. He’s still starting in Triple-A for now, but there’s been plenty of speculation about an eventual move to the bullpen for the former top prospect.
Hayes lists Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi as one name the Twins “could” target, though it’s not clear just yet whether the two parties have had any meaningful discussions about the southpaw. Kikuchi is in the final season of a three-year, $36MM contract and is widely expected to be traded, with the Jays buried by 14 games in the AL East and only sitting marginally better in the Wild Card hunt (nine and a half games out).
The 33-year-old Kikuchi has logged 106 innings of 4.42 ERA ball with a sharp 26% strikeout rate and excellent 5.8% walk rate that belie his pedestrian earned run average. After a tough first season in Toronto, he’s proven to be a solid pickup in years two and three of the deal, thanks in large part to his revamped curveball. That said, he’s hit a rough patch of late, stumbling to a 6.00 ERA in his past nine starts (45 innings). His strikeout and walk rates have remained excellent, but a longstanding issue with home runs has once again reared its head; Kikuchi has been tagged for 11 round-trippers in that time (2.2 HR/9).
Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is the most highly regarded rental arm likely to be on the market, though he’d likely command a prospect of note and the Twins might balk at sending a touted farmhand to a division rival. Washington’s Trevor Williams would be among the more clearly available rental arms on the market were it not a for a flexor strain that’s sidelined him since late May. There are a number of potential rental arms who could hit the market in the days ahead, depending on how their respective teams play. The Reds (Frankie Montas), Rangers (Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney), Pirates (Marco Gonzales, old friend Martin Perez) and Giants (Alex Cobb) are all within five games of a playoff spot but could make some sell-side moves if they fall into a losing streak coming out of the break.
The Other Marlins Lefty Who’d Like Your Attention
In case you’ve been asleep all season, the Marlins are heading into the July 30 trade deadline as sellers and are all but certain to trade closer Tanner Scott within the next 13 days. Top starter Jesus Luzardo was seen as a near-lock to go as well, before a trip to the 60-day IL tanked his trade candidacy. Center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. — who is completely, 100 percent coincidentally getting his first work at second base since 2022 at a time when Miami is listening to trade offers from infield-needy teams — also seems quite likely to change hands. If the Marlins can find a taker for even a portion of Josh Bell‘s $16.5MM salary, he’ll go too.
But for all the talk on Scott, Chisholm and Luzardo throughout the season, the Marlins have another pretty obvious trade candidate who isn’t discussed nearly as often even though he’s arguably a more appealing trade candidate than Scott. Perhaps that’s because a disastrous start to the season tanked his numbers, but A.J. Puk has not only salvaged his 2024 campaign — he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball for more than a month.
Heading into the season, Miami raised a few eyebrows by opting to stretch Puk back out as a starter. The former Florida Gator was drafted as a starter but had never started a game in the majors. He last started four games in 2021 when still in the A’s organization and hadn’t worked as a full-time starter since 2017.
If you’ve followed any of the reliever-to-starter experiment check-ins I’ve written up this season (one from the quarter mark and one from the halfway mark), you’ll know that the exercise didn’t go well. Puk made the idea look brilliant in spring training when he pitched 13 2/3 innings of 1.32 ERA ball with a gargantuan 41.1% strikeout rate and sharp 7.1% walk rate. It was only four starts in exhibition play, but it’s easy to see why the team was encouraged.
Unfortunately, Puk’s regular-season dalliance with starting also lasted all of 13 2/3 innings over four starts. He was shelled for 17 runs (14 earned) on 19 hits and an alarming 17 walks. He fanned only 12 opponents. That’s a paltry 15.6% strikeout rate and stratospheric 22.1% walk rate. The Fish put Puk on the injured list with shoulder fatigue. He returned as a reliever tasked with the unenviable mission of lowering a 9.22 ERA over a series of one-inning stints. Good luck, Mr. Puk.
Or maybe he didn’t need the luck. Puk’s ERA is down to 4.73 on the season, and while that’s a wholly unimpressive number in its own right, it’s skewed dramatically but that lamentable foray into rotation work. Since he’s moved to the bullpen, Puk sports a 2.39 ERA in 26 1/3 innings. He’s fanned 26% of his opponents against a 5% walk rate. Puk walked five batters in 4 2/3 innings in one start at Yankee Stadium on April 9. He’s now walked five batters total since May 13, all while posting a terrific 13.8% swinging-strike rate and 34.1% chase rate.
Not only has Puk been rejuvenated in his move to a bullpen role, he’s also saved his best work for the summer run-up to the trade deadline. No one has eked out an earned run against the lanky 6’7″ southpaw since June 17. Puk is riding a 12 2/3-inning scoreless streak that’s seen him whiff 18 of the 43 batters he’s faced (41.9%) while walking only two of them (4.7%). Puk, after averaging 93.3 mph on his four-seamer out of the rotation, has averaged 96.1 mph since moving back to short relief. He’s been throwing even harder during this scoreless run, sitting 96.6 mph on his fastball, which has helped him post an eye-popping 20.5% swinging-strike rate and laughable 40% opponents’ chase rate. Everything is working for Puk right now; his four-seamer, sinker and slider have all generated plus results during this hot streak.
Puk looks every bit like he was miscast in his role as a starter to begin the year, but since moving back into the bullpen he’s been electric. And over the past month, he leads all major league relievers in FanGraphs WAR. He’s seventh among qualified relievers in strikeout rate during this current stretch and fourth in K-BB%. Puk hasn’t simply been better since moving back to the ‘pen — he’s been the best version of himself we’ve ever seen. And for a pitcher with more than four years of MLB service who saved 19 games and tallied 22 holds while working to a 3.51 ERA in 2022-23, that’s pretty notable. Puk wasn’t a bad reliever before the ill-fated move to the rotation, but he also wasn’t a great one. Now, he looks like a potentially elite one.
The timing couldn’t be better for a Marlins club that has no hope of reaching the postseason and waved the white flag on their season back in early May when they traded Luis Arraez in a stunning early-season blockbuster. Detractors could argue that the Fish waved the white flag on the season before Opening Day, as their biggest offseason additions of note were Tim Anderson, Nick Gordon, Vidal Brujan and Calvin Faucher (while also subtracting Jon Berti and Steven Okert).
Puk suddenly stands as an interesting trade candidate not only because of his recent dominance but because of his contract and remaining club control. He’s earning just $1.8MM in 2024 and will have $600K of that sum remaining as of deadline day. (Right now, he’s at $716K left on his deal.) An acquiring team would then be able to control Puk for two more seasons beyond the current campaign. He can’t become a free agent until the 2026-27 offseason. His early struggles and IL stint — plus Scott’s presence as the closer — have limited his time on the field, his rate stats and his save/hold opportunities. All of that will combine to help keep his arbitration price tag lower than if he’d spent the entire season as a high-end setup man or closer who excels in leverage situations.
Puk is a 29-year-old former top-10 draft pick and consensus top prospect who’s battled myriad injuries. He looked unimpressive as a starter but has quickly reminded everyone why he was a well-regarded reliever and someone former Marlins GM Kim Ng felt comfortable trading away another former top-10 pick (JJ Bleday) in order to acquire. He has two years of club control remaining, and it’s doubtful he’d even cost a new club a total of $10MM over the course of his remaining window of control.
It’s plenty understandable that Scott and Chisholm are drawing attention — but Puk should be right there alongside them. It was a mistake, plain and simple, to leave him off last week’s top trade candidate list. The Marlins seem willing to listen on just about any member of the active roster, and Puk is arguably the most appealing target for other teams as they look at what’s on the menu in Miami. He’s missing a similar number of bats to Scott but issuing walks at a mere fraction of the rate while earning a third of the salary and carrying two extra years of club control. Puk should command a legitimate prospect package, and there will be no shortage of teams calling.
Mets Claim Alex Young, Designate Tyler Jay
The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed left-hander Alex Young off waivers from the Giants and optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse. Fellow lefty Tyler Jay was designated for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
It’s a quick turnaround for Young, whom the Giants acquired just last week in the trade that sent outfielder Austin Slater and cash to the Reds. San Francisco seemingly hoped to pass Young through waivers and retain the southpaw as a depth option, but the Mets didn’t allow that to happen and will keep Young on their 40-man roster for the time being. The unusual sequence leaves the Giants with no return of which to speak for Slater, a 2014 eighth-rounder who’s been a solid role player for them over the years before struggling to career-worst results at the plate in 2024.
Young, 30, has pitched in parts of six big league seasons — including a brief two-inning stint with Cincinnati earlier this season. The former second-round pick has a career 4.40 earned run average in 264 big league innings and has fanned 19.5% of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate. Though he debuted as a starter with the 2019 Diamondbacks, Young has worked primarily as a reliever since that time and hasn’t started a game since 2022.
Young didn’t allow a run in his two innings with the Reds this season, and he’s been excellent in 24 2/3 Triple-A frames as well, logging a tidy 2.19 ERA with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate between the affiliates for the Reds and Giants. The southpaw has a shaky 4.99 ERA in 209 1/3 career innings at the Triple-A level, although that’s skewed by a pair of dismal debut campaigns in Triple-A with the D-backs in 2018-19. He’s pitched well at the top minor league level in each of the past three seasons now.
This is Young’s final minor league option year. The Mets can shuttle him between Syracuse and Queens for the remainder of the season, but Young would need to stick on the big league roster in 2025 and beyond. He crossed four years of big league service time earlier this season while on the 60-day injured list with a back issue, meaning he can be controlled for another two seasons, through the 2026 campaign, if he makes a good impression on his new club.
For Jay, this will be the second time this season the Mets have designated him for assignment. He was also DFA’ed after making his big league debut back in April. He stuck with the organization after clearing outright waivers.
The 30-year-old Jay was the No. 6 overall draft pick out of Illinois back in 2015 and for years ranked as one of the more promising arms in the Twins’ system. He dealt with repeated shoulder and neck injuries throughout his time in Minnesota’s system, however, and eventually underwent thoracic outlet surgery. He was out of affiliated ball at one point, before parlaying a showing with the Joliet Slammers of the independent Frontier League into a minor league look with the Mets.
Jay has only pitched 4 2/3 big league innings for the Mets this season. He’s surrendered four runs on seven hits and three walks with three strikeouts in that time. He’s spent the remainder of the season in Syracuse, working to a strong 2.40 ERA with a below-average 18.6% strikeout rate but a sensational 2.5% walk rate. The Mets will either trade Jay or place him on outright waivers in the next five days. Waivers would then be an additional 48-hour process. If he goes unclaimed, Jay will have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, as is the case for any player who’s been outrighted multiple times in his career.
Dallas Keuchel Elects Free Agency
Veteran left-hander Dallas Keuchel cleared waivers and elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Brewers, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. He’s now free to sign with any club.
Keuchel, 36, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners over the winter but was acquired by Milwaukee for cash last month. He’d gotten out to a nice start with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma (71 innings, 3.93 ERA, 15.6% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 59.5% grounder rate), and a Brewers club in dire need of rotation innings turned to the former Cy Young winner to help patch their injury-ravaged staff. Keuchel had two tough starts and two solid ones for the Brew Crew, pitching a total of 16 2/3 innings with an 11-to-8 K/BB ratio and 52.5% ground-ball rate before being designated.
Keuchel had a similar but lengthier stint as a depth starter with the Twins down the stretch in 2023, appearing in 10 games (six of them starts) and posting a 5.97 ERA in 37 2/3 frames. As with Milwaukee, he had his share of solid appearances in the Twin Cities but was also hit quite hard on a few occasions.
It’s been years since Keuchel, the 2015 American League Cy Young winner, was a solid member of a big league rotation. He made 11 starts and tossed 63 1/3 innings of sparkling 1.99 ERA ball with the White Sox in the shortened 2020 season, but the final two seasons of his three-year, $55.5MM deal in Chicago was a disaster. Dating back to 2021, Keuchel has pitched to a grisly 6.24 ERA in 277 innings — a far cry from the 1126 innings of 3.25 ERA ball he compiled in his 2014-20 peak.
Rough as Keuchel’s recent results have been, the veteran southpaw has pitched quite well in Triple-A over the past few seasons. This year’s 88.1 mph average velocity on his sinker obviously sits well below the league average but is also his best mark since a strong 2019 season with the Braves, when he averaged 88.3 mph. Keuchel worked with Driveline Baseball during the early part of the ’23 season to restore some of his dwindling velocity and parlayed that into his deal with the Twins. He’s now added a bit more life to the sinker and still looked sharp in two of his four Milwaukee appearances. A club in need of some rotation depth figures to scoop him up on a minor league pact in the coming weeks.
Domingo German Opts Out Of Pirates Deal
Right-hander Domingo German was released by the Pirates this week, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. He’d been pitching with their Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that German exercised an opt-out clause in his contract, prompting the release. The Bucs remain open to bringing him back, per Murray — presumably on a new minor league pact.
German, 31, has started ten games in Indy and pitched to a 5.36 ERA with a below-average 20.6% strikeout rate and a bloated 12.6% walk rate. However, a good portion of the damage against German came in one brutal outing that saw him yield eight runs (seven earned) in just five frames. In six starts since that ugly outing, he’s logged a more palatable 3.60 ERA with slightly improved strikeout and walk rates of 22.7% and 10.9%.
German’s entire big league career has been spent in a Yankees uniform. He pitched parts of six seasons in the Bronx, logging 522 1/3 innings of 4.41 ERA ball while working primarily out of the starting rotation. He’s had a fair bit of big league success but also saw his time with the Yankees marred by off-the-field issues.
In 2020, German was suspended for 81 games under the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence policy. He did not pitch in the shortened 2020 season as a result. German also missed the final portion of the 2023 season after “voluntarily submitting to inpatient treatment for alcohol abuse” (as announced by the Yankees at the time) following an incident in which he was reportedly intoxicated in the clubhouse. Earlier in the 2023 season, he also served a 10-game suspension in 2023 after an umpire ruled that the pitcher had violated MLB’s foreign substance policy on the mound.
The Pirates are relatively deep in rotation options, even with Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and Johan Oviedo currently on the injured list. Pittsburgh’s rotation currently includes Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, Quinn Priester and Marco Gonzales. Righty Luis Ortiz and top prospect Braxton Ashcraft give the Bucs further options, with Ashcraft in particular in the midst of a breakout season between Double-A and Triple-A. Falter is on the shelf with tendinitis in his left triceps and isn’t presently expected to be in for a lengthy absence. Jones was shut down for two weeks in early July after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 lat strain. It’s not yet clear when he’s expected to resume throwing off a mound, let alone return to the big league staff. Oviedo underwent Tommy John surgery in the offseason and will be out until 2025.
Longoria: Not Officially Retired, But Unlikely To Continue Playing
Evan Longoria suited up for just the third organization of his career in 2023 when he signed with the D-backs and helped the club make an improbable run to the World Series. He hasn’t signed a new contract since then but also hasn’t formally filed any retirement paperwork. The longtime Rays and Giants third baseman, however, told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times and others this past weekend that he’s all but officially retired.
“I waited long enough to know that I was done,” Longoria said before detailing some of the physical toll his 16-year playing career took during his final seasons. “…And then, being able to go to the World Series, have the experience that I had, it made it a pretty easy decision for me going into the offseason.”
Longoria did leave the door for one final run ever so slightly cracked. The 38-year-old said it would “depend on what team” called him and their chances of reaching a postseason. He listed both the Rays and D-backs as clubs he’d at least consider if he got the itch to take one more chance at winning a World Series.
“One of the only things I haven’t accomplished is winning a World Series,” said Longoria. “So if you said I would go hit .080 for the rest of the season, but the team would win the World Series, then I’d go do it. But that’s probably about the only thing I’d want to do.”
It’s a candid and broad-reaching interview that fans of Longoria and his former clubs, in particular, will want to check out in full. Some of the many topics touched on include how no Ray has worn his iconic No. 3 since he was traded, the slugger’s thoughts on a potential new stadium for the Rays, his life at home now that he’s been able to focus on being a full-time dad, and his hope to eventually return to the game in some capacity.
If Longoria is indeed done as a player, he’ll wrap up an outstanding career with a .264/.333/.471 batting line. He played in parts of 16 big league seasons, garnering MVP votes in six of them. Longoria made three All-Star teams, was named American League Rookie of the Year, won three Gold Gloves and took home one Silver Slugger Award.
Longoria piled up 1930 hits, including 431 doubles, 26 triples and 342 home runs, tying him with Hall of Famer Ron Santo for 104th on the all-time home run leaderboard. Those 431 doubles currently rank 142nd all-time. The former No. 3 overall pick also scored 1017 runs and knocked in 1159 (the latter ranking 185th all-time). FanGraphs credits Longoria with a hefty 55.2 wins above replacement. Baseball-Reference is even more bullish at 58.6 WAR. He earned more than $150MM in salary over the course of his 16 years in the big leagues. Along the way, he carved out a reputation as an excellent and beloved teammate.
“Longo is one of the best teammates I’ve ever had,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt told the AP’s Mark Didtler. “This guy’s a pro’s pro. This guy’s the epitome of what a professional baseball player looks like. Evan Longoria is everything that’s good about our game, and what a wonderful career he had.”
Phillies Among Teams With Interest In Tommy Pham
The Phillies are among the teams with some interest in White Sox outfielder Tommy Pham, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Philadelphia is known to be on the hunt for some outfield help in the run-up to the July 30 trade deadline, and while they’ve been more heavily rumored to be seeking a true center fielder, the 36-year-old Pham could still give them a solid bat in left field (pushing Brandon Marsh to center with more regularity) or a bat off the bench who could be paired with a true center field addition. The Royals have also been linked to Pham.
While Pham doesn’t offer the defensive excellence of current Philadelphia outfielders Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache, he can handle center field in a pinch. He also brings quite a bit more offense to the table than either player. Pham’s bat has cooled since a hot start to the season, but he’s still sporting a solid .264/.339/.368 slash line on the season (103 wRC+). This is Pham’s tenth full big league season and the eighth in which he’s provided at least average offense.
The Phillies recently released veteran Whit Merrifield, who’d played 25 games in left field for them (in addition to 14 at second base and a dozen at the hot corner). The hope had been that he could be a vital bat for them against lefties, but that didn’t prove to be the case. He hit just .190/.238/.329 in 84 plate appearances against southpaws. Pham, on the other hand, has pummeled lefties, hitting .260/.383/.480 when holding the platoon advantage. He’s posted a solid .265 average and .325 on-base percentage against righties but hasn’t hit for any power in right-on-right situations, slugging just .337.
Pham’s contractual status also likely appeals to a Phillies club that is already in the second tier of luxury tax penalization. He’s playing the season on a $3MM salary, with about $1.21MM of that sum yet to be paid out as of this writing. (He’d be owed a $500K assignment bonus upon being traded and can unlock an additional $1.5MM in salary based on plate appearances.) Because the Phils are paying the tax for a third straight year and in the second tier of penalty ($20MM to $40MM over the $237MM tax threshold), they’ll pay a 62% tax on any dollars added to the payroll.
Adding Pham and the remainder of his modest base salary would result in an additional $750K of tax penalties, bringing his theoretical luxury hit for the club to $1.96MM (the exact number will be impacted by which team pays the assignment bonus and the actual timing of a potential trade, of course). That’s of particular benefit to the Phillies, who would see their top pick in the 2025 draft pushed back 10 places if they reach $277MM in tax considerations. At present, RosterResource projects the Phils at $261.6MM worth of luxury obligations. With the Phillies surely eyeing multiple upgrades ahead of the deadline, assuring that at least one of those pickups comes with a relatively minimal salary commitment could be extra importance.
The Tigers Are Reaping The Benefits From A Quiet August Pickup
Over the next two weeks, the Tigers are widely expected to become deadline sellers. That’s perhaps not as set in stone as it once looked — not with an 8-2 showing in their past 10 games and nine games against the Twins and Guardians remaining between now and the deadline. In many ways, they’ll control their own fate. At 47-50, they’re a dozen games back of Cleveland for the division lead and seven games out of the American League Wild Card chase. An impressive run, particularly against those division foes, could change the complexion of the AL Central.
Given their standing in the division for the majority of the season, there’s been been plenty of chatter about the top names Detroit could peddle on the summer trade market. A trade of ace and AL Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal — who’s controlled through 2026 — seems immensely unlikely, though given the sheer volume of interest and possibility of a team making a stratospheric offer, we still tucked him into the No. 50 spot last week when listing our top 50 trade candidates for this year’s deadline.
Three other Tigers made that list, including top name Jack Flaherty as well as reliever Andrew Chafin and utilityman Gio Urshela. There’s at least one other Tiger that had a clear case to be on the list, but ultimately, we chose an arbitrary 50 candidates to highlight, and not every plausible name made the cut. That, however, doesn’t mean that catcher Carson Kelly isn’t an intriguing trade candidate himself.
At the time the Tigers signed Kelly last August, the transaction drew little fanfare. While he was a former top prospect with the Cardinals and one of the headline pieces in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt from St. Louis to Arizona, Kelly had struggled for much of the 2022-23 seasons after originally turning in a pair of nice seasons with the Snakes in 2019 and 2021. At the time of his DFA and subsequent D-backs release, he was hitting .226/.283/.298 in 92 trips to the plate. He’d batted .211/.282/.334 in 354 plate appearances a year prior. It was an inauspicious conclusion to a nearly five-year run in Arizona.
Kelly didn’t do much to change any narratives surrounding him down the stretch in Detroit. He hit just .173/.271/.269 in 59 plate appearances. He continued to play standout defense, as has been the case throughout his big league career, but he looked the part of a punchless, glove-first backup. Despite that, the Tigers clearly saw something they liked and picked up the $3.5MM club option they’d negotiated into Kelly’s contract — a lesser price than he’d have commanded had the Tigers simply kept him and gone through the arbitration process.
It’s proven to be a savvy move. After a disastrous stretch at the plate in 2022-23, Kelly has rebounded back to the 2019 and 2021 form that made him into a quality all-around catcher. He’s hitting .247/.326/.410 with seven home runs on the year. He’s been even better since a slow start; in 120 plate appearances dating back to mid-May, Kelly is hitting .290/.358/.505.
That production doesn’t appear to be overly fluky in nature. Kelly’s .276 average on balls in play is higher than his career .257 mark, but not by much, and it’s still south of the 2024 league average (.289). Kelly’s 19.9% strikeout rate is the lowest full-season mark of his career (albeit only by a narrow margin), and he’s drawing walks at a solid 8.6% clip. Statcast shows that Kelly is making hard contact at far and away the highest rate of his career (45.4%) and also averaging a career-best 89.7 mph off the bat. (From 2022-23, those numbers sat at 35.4% and 87.4 mph, respectively.) By measure of wRC+, Kelly’s bat has been 10% better than average.
The increased production at the plate is particularly encouraging because Kelly’s glove remains a premium asset. He’s thwarted a whopping one-third of stolen base attempts against him (18-for-54). The league average this season is 23%. Kelly has also drawn plus marks for his blocking and at least average marks for his framing. In 437 innings behind the dish, Statcast credits him as four runs above average. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at a strong +3 in that same time.
Kelly’s production has been sufficient enough that he’s overtaken Jake Rogers by a slight margin in terms of playing time. Though he was signed to be Rogers’ backup, Kelly’s 437 innings behind the plate top his teammate’s 422 frames there.
Given Rogers’ struggles this season — he’s hitting .203/.251/.346 — it’s possible that Kelly has played his way into the Tigers’ long-term plans. However, he’s slated to become a free agent at season’s end. Rogers, who’s a plus defender himself, is controlled through the 2026 season. He’s drawn trade interest in the past and could potentially do so again over the next couple weeks, though this year’s downturn at the plate obviously has an adverse impact on the level of interest Rogers would realistically command.
It’s rare for a team to go acquire a new starting catcher at the deadline, as learning a new pitching staff on the fly midseason is a tall order. There are a few teams on the lookout for catching help, however — the Cubs seemingly chief among them. Other postseason hopefuls that have received minimal production from their backstops in 2024 include the Guardians and the Rays, and the majority of contending clubs would consider the 2024 version of Kelly an upgrade over their current backup catcher.
In retrospect, I’d probably go back and find a way to get Kelly onto last week’s top 50 list, perhaps pushing off one of the many middle relievers who populated the middle tiers. But catching help is rarely as in demand as bullpen help on the summer trade market, and we went with more relievers as a result.
Regardless, Kelly stands as a clear trade candidate, barring a surge against the division-rival Guardians and Twins in the next two weeks. That fact alone is deserving of praise for multiple parties. Tigers scouts and evaluators deserve credit for looking at Kelly and determining that even after a dismal two years, he still had a potential rebound in the tank. The front office deserves credit for not only signing Kelly last year but including a low-cost club option that’s made him into an even more appealing bargain option.
And, of course, Kelly himself deserves praise for the manner in which he’s put that forgettable two-year stretch behind him and revitalized his career. This is his best stretch since early 2021, and having just turned 30 on Sunday, he still has plenty of years ahead if he can sustain anything close to this pace. The big question, for the moment, is whether that continues in a Tigers uniform or whether he changes hands in the next 14 days. He and his teammates will have plenty of say in which route their front office ultimately chooses.
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Twins Acquire Rylan Bannon From Mets
The Twins have acquired infielder Rylan Bannon from the Mets, per their transaction log at MLB.com. The return isn’t specified, though it’s typical for midseason trades of non-40-man players of this ilk to send cash the other direction. Speculatively speaking, Bannon may have had an out clause in his deal with the Mets; he was hitting well in Triple-A Syracuse prior to this swap.
Bannon, 28, has played in parts of two big league seasons, spending time with the Orioles, Braves and Astros. Despite having suited up for three clubs in 2022-23, he’s tallied only 21 plate appearances at the MLB level and gone 2-for-20 with a walk and eight strikeouts.
A seventh-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2017, Bannon was one of five players the Dodgers traded to Baltimore in the 2018 Manny Machado deal and for a few years looks as though he could have a role with the O’s in the majors. Bannon ranked among the Orioles’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com from 2019-21, sitting between 18th and 23rd on their list along the way. He’s had an inconsistent but at-times productive track record in the upper minors.
That minor league track record includes a strong three-month stint with the Mets organization to begin the 2024 season. Bannon appeared in 79 games and tallied 342 plate appearances with the Mets’ Syracuse affiliate, batting .254/.392/.475 with 15 homers, seven steals and a gaudy 17.5% walk rate. He played second base, third base, shortstop and both outfield corners during his time in the Mets’ system but ultimately didn’t receive a call to the majors.
The Twins have a crowded but increasingly banged-up infield mix, so it’s not a shock to see them adding some more depth. Third baseman Royce Lewis is on the shelf with an adductor strain, and Minnesota placed Jose Miranda on the injured list with a back issue just prior to the break. Neither player is expected to be in for an especially lengthy IL stint. The Twins selected the contract of infielder Diego Castillo just before the break when Miranda hit the injured list.
Carlos Correa, in the midst of his best season since signing with the Twins, is skipping the All-Star Game due to an ongoing bout of plantar fasciitis. There’s no indication yet that Correa will head to the injured list, and the Twins still have top prospect Brooks Lee to slot in at third base and All-Star utilityman Willi Castro as an option at second base. If Correa does require a stint on the 10-day IL, Edouard Julien could be recalled from St. Paul, with Castro or Lee taking over at shortstop.