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James McCann On Free Agency

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James McCann is headed to the free agent market under much different circumstances than last time around. Non-tendered by the Tigers after a rough 2018 showing, McCann latched on with the White Sox and went on to give the South Siders a pair of very strong seasons — including an All-Star campaign in 2019. While he served as a backup to Yasmani Grandal in 2020, McCann still worked into the mix at DH in addition to his time behind the plate.

In an appearance on NBC Sports Chicago’s White Sox Talk podcast late last week (audio link), McCann discussed his return to the open market. Asked by host Chuck Garfien about how important it is for him to secure a starting role, McCann replied:

It’s something that I feel like I’ve earned in my career. I definitely think there is a lot that goes into that — being the guy and being able to run the staff. I do feel like that’s something that I’ve earned. But like I’ve said all along, I’m not burning any bridges, and we’ll see what the next few months hold.

McCann declined to delve into specifics when asked about potential clubs that might be fits or may have even already contacted him, instead just emphasizing the point that every team needs experienced catching.

While neither McCann or the White Sox is formally closing the door on their relationship, it seems hard to imagine a return scenario with Grandal signed for three more years. J.T. Realmuto is the top name on the open market, but McCann very arguably is the next-best alternative. He’s made huge strides both offensively and defensively since signing in Chicago, hitting a combined .276/.334/.474 with 25 homers in 587 plate appearances. He’s dramatically improved his exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate with the South Siders. After an offseason focused on improving his framing last winter, McCann posted career-best numbers in that department in 2020 en route to a Gold Glove nomination.

The White Sox obviously aren’t in the market for a starting catcher, but any of the Mets, Phillies, Rays, Angels, Rockies, Yankees, Nationals or Marlins could be expected to pursue upgrades over incumbent options. McCann declined to discuss contractual specifics, sidestepping a question about the possibility of taking a one-year deal in hopes of finding a stronger free-agent market next winter. “I think my play the last few years has put a value on me, and that’s where we are,” said McCann.

We at MLBTR ranked McCann as this offseason’s No. 16 free agent on our Top 50 rankings, with the team a two-year, $20MM contract prediction. It’s certainly possible that McCann could take home a three-year arrangement. He’ll be of particular interest for clubs that want an upgrade behind the plate but aren’t given ownership approval to pursue a mega-deal with Realmuto and/or may not want to try to lure a 38-year-old Yadier Molina away from St. Louis.

Astros Have Discussed New Deal With Michael Brantley

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The Astros could lose outfielders George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency this winter, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest notes column that the club is “trying to work out a deal” with the 33-year-old Brantley. Interest in a reunion is mutual, Rosenthal adds.

Houston opted not to issue an $18.9MM qualifying offer to Brantley, who just wrapped up a two-year, $32MM contract with the ’Stros. The longtime Indians left fielder was excellent in his new setting, delivering a combined .309/.370/.497 line through 824 plate appearances as an Astro. That excellence continued into the playoffs, where Brantley tallied 138 trips to the plate and slashed .311/.391/.426 over the past two postseasons.

It’s not yet known what type of payroll capacity the Astros have this winter, although owner Jim Crane already showed a willingness to spend when he re-signed first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract (plus a club option) just prior to the beginning of the Wild Card round of postseason play. That deal was in spite of a generally poor year at the plate for Gurriel, which made it rather surprising, but it certainly had to be viewed as a good omen for Astros players like Brantley who hoped to broker a new arrangement with the team.

Then again, adding Gurriel back at that rate further elevated a reasonably crowded Houston payroll. Between him, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith and Martin Maldonado, the Astros have more than $103MM on the books (after factoring for Greinke’s partial salary deferrals and the money coming over from the D-backs as part of that deal). Houston also still owes arbitration raises to Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and Aledmys Diaz. Raises for that trio could bring the Astros north of $122MM before adding pre-arbitration players to round out the roster.

That’s not a daunting number relative to the $200MM+ at which the club opened the 2020 season (prior to prorating), but Crane surely would prefer not to replicate that level of spending in the wake of this year’s lost revenue. That may have been true even under normal circumstances, given that last year’s payroll shattered the previous franchise record of about $160MM. The only times the Astros have ever gone beyond the $125MM mark in payroll were in 2018-20. With needs in the bullpen and perhaps in the rotation, there are other areas that need to be addressed as well.

As Rosenthal points out and as we alluded to in our annual free agent rankings, Brantley’s market is further clouded, to an extent, by uncertainty regarding the universal designated hitter. Brantley will turn 34 years old next May and would  benefit from a club that is able to mix in some regular DH reps. He may not be keen on jumping on a new deal until there’s a definitive yay or nay on an NL DH next year. Even if he ultimately lands with an American League team, the presence of the DH in the National League would still improve his negotiating power as he seeks the best deal possible.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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With an enviable group of high-end prospects fast approaching the Majors, we could see the Mariners begin to add some pieces in a shift back to a win-now mindset.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $29MM through 2023
  • Evan White, 1B: $22.7MM through 2025 (includes buyout of 2026 option; contract also contains options for 2027, 2028)
  • Kyle Seager, 3B: $18MM through 2021
  • Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: $15MM through 2021 (club must decide on four-year, $56MM extension after 2021; Kikuchi can otherwise exercise $13MM player option)
  • Kendall Graveman, RHP: $1.25MM through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.5MM buyout on RHP Kendall Graveman (paid $500K buyout, re-signed Graveman to one-year, $1.25MM deal the next day)

Free Agents

We’re only two years removed from Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto’s pledge to step back and “reimagine” his roster, and the organizational turnaround has been remarkable. The Mariners have gone from one of the game’s oldest teams to one if its youngest, and what was once a barren farm system has been rapidly built into one of the game’s more enviable collections of young talent. Interesting young players have bubbled up to the MLB level, and reinforcements are on the horizon in droves.

It’s a promising enough outlook that Dipoto said following a near-miss of the final Wild Card spot in 2020’s expanded playoff format that he doesn’t believe a postseason bid next year is unrealistic. It’ll take some additions, of course, but the Mariners are surely more focused on whether their young core will take continued steps forward, so we’ll start with a look around the roster.

Former first-rounder Evan White batted just .176/.252/.346 in his debut effort, but he skipped Triple-A entirely en route to the Majors and showed some pop (eight homers) while also securing the first of what is expected to be many Gold Gloves at first base. Shed Long Jr. struggled while playing through a stress fracture in his leg, but he’ll be healthy next year and the Mariners picked up another second base option at the trade deadline in Ty France. Utilityman Dylan Moore turned in a .255/.358/.496 slash and could push for a bigger role. J.P. Crawford remains a work in progress at the plate but joined White in being named an AL Gold Glover. Kyle Seager, the elder statesman at the hot corner, enjoyed a resurgent 2020 season.

The outfield is the area of greatest hope for the M’s, with Kyle Lewis a favorite to be named 2020 Rookie of the Year. The club expects Mitch Haniger back after a grueling series of fluke injuries wiped out most of 2019 and his entire 2020 season. There’s no shortage of options to keep the seat warm in left field until uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic arrives on the scene — which should happen no later than next June. Fellow top prospect Julio Rodriguez won’t be far behind, and the club added well-regarded outfield prospect Taylor Trammell in the same trade that netted France.

Also in that trade, which sent Austin Nola to San Diego, was young catcher Luis Torrens, who impressed in his Mariners debut. Veteran Tom Murphy should be healthy in ’21, giving the club an experience complement. Should either falter, 23-year-old prospect Cal Raleigh is on the cusp of MLB readiness himself.

With all that in mind, the Mariners don’t need to make much of a push to add a bat this winter, although there could certainly be some value plays that present themselves. And if Dipoto is indeed serious about his hope to push for a playoff bid in 2021, it’s fun to think about the Mariners as a dark-horse candidate for a reunion with DH Nelson Cruz. If not him, the M’s certainly look like a viable landing spot for Marcell Ozuna, although lucrative multi-year deals for free agents are something Dipoto has tended to avoid in recent years.

If there’s one place the Mariners will look to add, the bullpen is the best bet. The Mariners already struck a deal to keep Graveman, who struggled as a starter and then hit the IL when a benign bone tumor was discovered in his neck. He returned as a reliever and impressed with a 95 mph sinker that netted him his new deal. Dipoto is on record as saying he wants to add as many as four relievers this winter, although he cautioned that he might not chase marquee names.

Liam Hendriks is the top arm on this winter’s market but could be too lavish an expenditure. Ditto for resurgent closer Trevor Rosenthal and Seattle native Trevor May, although it’s possible that what is expected to be a depressed market for relievers could cause some higher-profile names to fall more into the price range Dipoto had in mind at the time of those comments. He and every other GM passed on Brad Hand at a year and $10MM on waivers, but any of Hand, May, Rosenthal or Blake Treinen makes sense as the primary bullpen splash here. It stands to reason that Dipoto will check in on virtually the entire free-agent bullpen market, and don’t rule out a trade or trades that net some relief help.

In the rotation, the Mariners have already made clear that they plan to continue utilizing a six-man group. Marco Gonzales and Justus Sheffield more than earned their spots in 2020. Some will raise an eyebrow to see a vote of confidence in left-hander Yusei Kikuchi here, but it should be noted that in addition to a contract that ensures him a spot, he actually pitched better than his ERA would otherwise suggest.

Kikuchi still issued a few too many free passes, but a 47-to-20 K/BB ratio, 0.57 HR/9 and a 52 percent ground-ball rate in 47 innings are all solid. Indeed, he logged a 3.30 FIP and 3.78 xFIP but was done in by a bizarrely low 59.9 percent strand rate. Kikuchi’s heater also ticked upwards markedly in 2020, as did his swinging-strike rate. He looks like a potential breakout candidate in 2021, and his contract alone will ensure he gets a chance to prove it.

Beyond that trio, there’s room for additions here as well. Justin Dunn, acquired alongside Kelenic, is a former top 100 prospect who’s shown flashes of promise but could be better suited for bullpen work. Ljay Newsome and waiver claim Nick Margevicius give Seattle some additional options to start games, and the club has drafted three consecutive big-name college starters with its past three top picks: Logan Gilbert in 2018, George Kirby in 2019 and Emerson Hancock in 2020. All are highly regarded, and Gilbert could debut as soon as 2021.

Still, there’s enough uncertainty in this mix that the Mariners could explore outside additions. Dipoto made clear after trading Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays that he hoped to discuss another reunion with the 28-year-old righty this winter. Our Top 50 free agent rankings contain a bevy of options we expect to sign one- and two-year deals in free agency this year, and it makes sense for the Mariners to go shopping in that general price range.

It’s certainly arguable that they could be poised to make a bigger splash, although we’ve not seen Dipoto make such a move since coming to Seattle. Still, with just $74MM on next year’s books and a middling $7.15MM on the 2022 payroll, the Mariners are as sensible a dark horse as you could pick to make a significant move. They even have the long-term payroll freedom to sign Trevor Bauer if they see fit, although that would obviously still register as a major surprise. More realistically, Marcus Stroman’s grounder-heavy arsenal would pair well with Seattle’s premium infield defense if the M’s wanted to make a big rotation move.

These are bigger names than Mariners fans should expect, given Dipoto’s track record in Seattle, but the point remains that they could fit just about any contract they want onto the long-term books. That’ll be worth bearing in mind on the trade market, too, and we know that Dipoto is never afraid to jump into that arena.

It’s also interesting to look at the context of the American League West. As the Mariners prepare to emerge from their accelerated rebuild, we see the Rangers looking to pare payroll and striving to get younger (aka — a rebuild). The Astros could lose George Springer, Michael Brantley and others to free agency this winter and will be without Justin Verlander for most or all of the 2021 season. The Angels will reload and take another shot, but they’ve struggled to field a competent pitching staff in support of Mike Trout for years. The A’s look like they’ll be a threat, but in a broad sense, this division isn’t the insurmountable powerhouse it was a few years back when the ’Stros were running roughshod over a series of clearly inferior clubs.

At the end of the day, none of this means that the Mariners are in line for a major spending spree. However, their overwhelming payroll flexibility gives them the opportunity to take advantage of a market that most free agents will find rather harsh.

At minimum, the Mariners should be able to be more aggressive than their peers on the bullpen arms they deem to be the best of the bunch. And if Dipoto & Co. wish to get more aggressive, a club that only has Gonzales’ $5.75MM salary and White’s $1.4MM salary on the 2022 books should be able to outspend rival teams on bigger-ticket items. It’s never a dull offseason for Jerry Dipoto, but this winter has the potential to be a fun one for Mariners fans.

Report: Indians Have Informed Other Clubs They Intend To Trade Francisco Lindor

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If you’ve been even loosely following things for the past couple of years, the notion that the Indians will trade star shortstop Francisco Lindor this offseason should come as no surprise. Still, it’s nevertheless of some note to see USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweet that Cleveland has informed other clubs of their intent to trade Lindor before Opening Day.

This is hardly the first such indication of the concept. We’ve discussed the possibility here at MLBTR numerous times in the past couple years — most recently two weeks ago when Connor Byrne ran through potential offseason trade partners who could take on Lindor for his final year of club control before free agency next year. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel also took a look at the possible market for Lindor last week, consulting with his colleagues who cover many prospective trade partners for the Indians.

The eventual trade of Lindor will serve as the inevitable culmination of a saga that began two years ago when, asked about the possibility of a Lindor extension, Indians owner Paul Dolan ominously told fans to simply “enjoy him.” Cleveland has long been a low-payroll organization, though the club ramped up payroll after its 2016 World Series run, even signing Edwin Encarnacion to a three-year, $60MM contract that winter.

Since that time — particularly over the past two offseasons — it’s been a steady march to reduce spending and return payroll to normal levels. Encarnacion was traded two years into that deal, while All-Star outfielder Michael Brantley was allowed to leave as a free agent without the club risking a qualifying offer. Cleveland has traded Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger as well and neglected to spend to address a lackluster outfield group in the post-Brantley era, instead focusing on hopeful bargain-bin additions.

All of those payroll-paring efforts came prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic that left all 30 MLB clubs without gate revenue for the 2020 season. The Indians themselves raised one of the most substantial red flags regarding the economic turmoil throughout the game when they placed All-Star closer Brad Hand on waivers in an effort to avoid paying a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option they did not intend to exercise. To the Indians’ credit, the negative framing of that move here at MLBTR was proven to be a bit misplaced when Hand went unclaimed and Cleveland was forced to pay the buyout anyhow.

That said, the decision not to retain Hand, coupled with all of the team’s recent market dealings, paints a clear picture of an organization that feels it necessary to further slash payroll — even at a time when the roster possesses enough talent to contend in the American League Central.

Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/FanGraphs projects that the Indians will have a roughly $72MM payroll for the 2021 season, but that figure includes the $19.5MM salary which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor to earn. Trading Lindor and potentially non-tendering some members of their arbitration class would put the Indians down into the $50MM range, pending any smaller-scale offseason additions.

It’s worth noting, of course, that Lindor’s trade value is likely at an all-time low. Beyond the fact that he has merely one year of club control remaining, he’s also coming off a poor season at a time when many rival clubs will simply balk at taking on a near-$20MM salary.

Lindor, 27 next week, turned in a pedestrian .258/.335/.415 slash (100 wRC+) with eight homers and six steals in this year’s shortened slate of games. It’s only a sample of 266 plate appearances, and Lindor registered a combined .278/.342/.514 output (121 wRC+) in the 2017-19 seasons combined, playing all-world defense at shortstop and averaging 34 homers and 21 steals per year along the way.

That track record should still fuel demand for his services, but with the benefit of hindsight, many fans will suggest the Indians waited a year too long to move him, given the inevitable nature of his trade candidacy. In addition to Dolan’s “enjoy him” line, it’s crucial to add that Lindor turned down an extension offer reported to be in the neighborhood of $100MM prior to the 2017 season, when he had just over a year of Major League service time. A long-term union between the two sides has never been seen as likely, and the primary question now is one of where — not whether — he’ll be traded.

Lindor himself has acknowledged the possibility of being traded this winter while simultaneously rejecting the notion that the team “can’t afford” to sign him. Asked by Meisel on Oct. 1 if Cleveland should be able to meet his asking price on a contract, Lindor replied: “Of course. It’s a billion-dollar team. Of course.”

Asked later in the interview about his expectations for the game’s economy over the next year in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, Lindor rhetorically answered: “Did you see MLB just signed a $3 billion contract?” The contract referenced by Lindor is the reported seven-year, $3.7 billion deal with Turner Sports to continue broadcasting half of the postseason’s games. Back in 2018, MLB also agreed to a seven-year, $5.1 billion rights deal with FOX for the World Series and the other half of postseason media rights in that same 2022-28 span.

Red Sox Down To Three Managerial Candidates

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The Red Sox are beginning to narrow the list of managerial candidates they’re considering, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). While five finalists have been previously reported — former manager Alex Cora, Phillies director of integrative baseball performance Sam Fuld, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Marlins bench coach James Rowson and Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza — Heyman characterizes Cora and Fuld as the favorites.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe also suggests that the search is nearing a conclusion, reporting that Mendoza and one other finalist have been informed they’re no longer in the running. Cora and Fuld are indeed among the three remaining finalists, per Speier, who adds that a decision is expected to be made “soon.” While the widespread expectation has been that the Red Sox will simply re-hire Cora, Heyman notes that Fuld is seen as having a “very real” chance at winning the gig.

Fuld’s name was only linked to the Boston job less than a week ago, though the 38-year-old has past ties to Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom since both were members of the Rays organization (Fuld as a player, Bloom in the baseball operations department) from 2011-13. Multiple teams have expressed interest in Fuld for managerial positions in the past but he has declined interviews, so the fact that he has been speaking with the Red Sox is perhaps itself notable. Fuld was hired to his current position by former Phillies GM Matt Klentak, though since Klentak is no longer running Philadelphia’s front office, this could hint at why Fuld may now be open to exploring job opportunities on other teams.

Fuld has never worked as a coach or manager at any level, making him an interesting contrast to a World Series-winning manager like Cora. The unknown candidate, whether it’s Rowson or Kelly, would also be a first-time manager.  Rowson has worked as Miami’s bench coach for a season and over a decade of experience as a Major League hitting coach and minor league hitting instructor.  Since retiring from playing after the 2016 season, Kelly spent two season as a scout for the Tigers before moving onto coaching roles with the Astros and Pirates.

Dombrowski Staying With Nashville Group, Not A Candidate For Current Front Office Openings

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Former Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox baseball operations lead Dave Dombrowski has been regularly mentioned as a possible candidate for the Angels’ GM vacancy, but Dombrowski went on record with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to explain that he is committed to his current role with Music City Baseball and is not pursuing other opportunities in the sport.

Dombrowski, former D-backs GM Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa joined Music City Baseball, LLC back in July — an organization endeavoring to bring Major League Baseball to Nashville, Tenn. While La Russa was clearly open to other opportunities — he’s since been the surprise managerial pick of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf — Dombrowski tells Rosenthal that he signed a four-year contract and has no plans to change course.

“I’m staying in Nashville,” Dombrowski plainly stated, adding that he made “…a commitment when I moved here that as we continue to pursue a new team — expansion, relocation or if it goes nowhere — that I would stay here with them.”

For now, the Nashville group will continue its efforts to bring a team to Tennessee and Dombrowski will remain a major part of that effort. It’s likely, per Rosenthal, that if Dombrowski’s group is ultimately able to succeed in bringing an expansion club to the city, that he would head up that new club’s baseball ops department. Of course, that’s a rather long-term goal that likely won’t come to fruition at any point in the immediate future, if at all. Dombrowski did leave the door open for him to explore new MLB opportunities before the end of his current contract if eventually “there’s nothing at the end of the road” and “we don’t have an organization” any longer.

It’s clear, though, that Dombrowski’s name can be removed from speculation surrounding not only the Angels but the Marlins, Phillies and, if a change is made in New York under new owner Steve Cohen, the Mets.

Nationals To Re-Sign Aaron Barrett

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The Nationals have re-signed righty Aaron Barrett to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic reports (Twitter thread). The club has also re-signed infielders Adrian Sanchez and Brandon Snyder to minor league deals with camp invites.

Of the three, only Barrett logged time at the Major League level for the Nats in 2020. The 32-year-old righty (33 in January) looked to be emerging as a mainstay in the D.C. bullpen from 2014-15 before a torn UCL required Tommy John surgery. He fractured his elbow near the completion of that rehab stint, further derailing his return.

The Nats captured Double-A skipper Matthew LeCroy informing Barrett of his return to the Majors on video in 2019. That, coupled with Barrett becoming overwhelmed with emotion following his first big league appearance after close to a half decade of rehab, served as one of many feel-good stories in a magical campaign for the Nats.

Barrett has pitched just four innings in the Majors since that 2019 return, and he’ll now look for another opportunity to carve out a larger role in the Nationals’ relief corps. He’s been tagged for six runs in those four innings, but Barrett carried a 3.47 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 70 frames prior to running into his injury troubles.

Turning to the 30-year-old Sanchez, he spent parts of the 2017-19 seasons with the Nats, serving primarily as a utility infield piece. He’s appeared in a total of 90 big league games, all with the Nats, and posted a .263/.280/.331 batting line in 166 trips to the plate.

Snyder, 34 in a few weeks, spent the 2019 season with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate and returned on another minor league deal last winter. He hasn’t gotten to the Majors with the Nats and has only appeared in two MLB games since the conclusion of the 2016 season. A former first-round pick, Snyder has seen MLB action in parts of six seasons, during which time he’s batted .240/.276/.455 with nine homers, five doubles and a triple in 211 plate appearances. The corner infielder/outfielder belted 31 home runs for the Nats’ Triple-A club during that 2019 stint and has a career .773 OPS in parts of 10 seasons at that level.

Brewers Add Quintin Berry To Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced their 2021 coaching staff Wednesday, which includes a new but familiar name: former big league outfielder Quintin Berry. He’ll take the place of longtime third base coach Ed Sedar, who is transitioning from the dugout to a new role as an advisor to the Major League coaching staff.

Berry, 35, recently wrapped up a 13-year career as an outfielder — one that included parts of five seasons in the Majors. The speedster was a frequent late-season pickup for playoff hopefuls seeking a pinch-running specialist. He logged 94 games with the 2012 Tigers as a rookie but never came close to that mark again, ultimately wrapping up his time in the Majors with a .262/.333/.364 slash with 29 steals in 31 tries over the course of 132 games.

Berry also played in parts of 13 minor league seasons, hitting .257/.350/.327 with a whopping 399 steals. The last of those 13 seasons came in the Brewers organization in 2018, and he’s since been working as a minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator with the Brewers organization.

The rest of the coaching staff will look familiar to Brewers fans. Pat Murphy returns for a sixth season as Craig Counsell’s bench coach. Jason Lane will be one of the two base coaches along with Berry — their specific base designation has not yet been specified. Hitting coach Andy Haines, pitching coach Chris Hook and bullpen coach Steve Karsay are all returning for their third years on the staff. Assistant hitting coach Jacob Cruz is back for a second season, and the Brewers are also returning Walker McKinven as their associate pitching, catching and strategy coach.

Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer

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In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.

Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.

It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.

As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.

That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.

Starting Pitching Notes: Kluber, Nats, Orioles

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Agent B.B. Abbott tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that right-hander Corey Kluber has been cleared to begin a throwing program and is expected to progress to throwing off a mound early next month (Twitter link). That timeline provides a glimpse into where Kluber is at in his rehab from the Grade 2 teres major strain that limited him to just one inning with the Rangers this past season. It stands to reason that interested clubs may prefer to see how Kluber handles that next critical step before committing a guaranteed contract to him. A broken forearm and a strained oblique muscle held Kluber to 35 2/3 innings in 2019, so he’s tossed just 36 2/3 frames over the past two seasons. However, in his last full season, the 34-year-old Kluber finished third in AL Cy Young voting.

Some notes on the market for starting pitching…

  • The Orioles are still in the midst of a long rebuild, but GM Mike Elias told reporters this week that he plans to look at the free-agent market for rotation options (link via Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com). “I definitely think we’re going to be signing some starting pitchers,” Elias said. “You can never have enough.” Elias downplayed the magnitude of any potential signing, cautioning that any such moves could be on major league or minor league deals. Baltimore went the latter route last winter when inking Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, but that duo is gone — as is righty Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles already have some young arms knocking on the door to potential rotation spots, headlined by left-hander Keegan Akin, but there’s so much uncertainty on the staff that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see multiple arms brought into the fold. “There will be additional competition in camp,” said Elias.
  • While many clubs are content to stay in-house to round out the back of their rotations, the Nationals’ history suggests that they’ll spend to add a No. 4 starter behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That fourth spot in the rotation was held down by Anibal Sanchez in 2019-20 but now looks vacant once again after Sanchez’s 2021 option was unsurprisingly declined. While the Nats might not break the bank  to bring in a veteran, there’s a rather robust market for fourth and fifth starter types, including a host of high-profile names seeking bouncebacks from poor 2020 showings. Zuckerman notes that southpaw Robbie Ray, one such starter, was initially a Nationals draft pick and a prospect that GM Mike Rizzo had a difficult time trading in the Doug Fister swap with the Tigers back in 2013. As seen on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, Ray is one of many options for clubs seeking rotation help.

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