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Red Sox, Mets Have Discussed Edwin Diaz

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As the Red Sox continue their search for bullpen help and the Mets continue to puzzle onlookers, the two teams have been in touch about a potential Edwin Diaz deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted early this morning that third base prospect Bobby Dalbec or corner infielder Triston Casas would likely be targeted as the centerpiece of any deal by the Mets. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston has indeed discussed a possible Diaz swap with the Mets, though, adding that the Red Sox are likely to add at least one, if not two relievers in the coming days. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that there’s “nothing hot” between the two sides at the moment, however.

It’s shaping up to be quite the deadline for the Mets, who shipped their two best pitching prospects to the Blue Jays yesterday in a trade that netted them Marcus Stroman. At the same time, the Mets appear poised to trade away some combination of Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Jason Vargas, Todd Frazier and Diaz — the latter of whom was portrayed as a signature offseason acquisition in what proved a near-immediately regrettable trade with the Mariners.

Instead of anchoring the bullpen and reprising his role as one of the game’s premier relievers, Diaz has taken a step back in nearly every category this season. The 25-year-old has seen virtually every one of his rate stats — strikeout, walk, home-run, ground-ball, swinging-strike, hard-hit and opponent chase — trend in the wrong direction. His premium velocity has held strong, as he’s averaged 97.2 mph on his heater, but the across-the-board results for Diaz have been ugly. It doesn’t help him that the Mets’ defense is awful, but he’s sitting on a bloated 4.95 ERA and has already allowed more runs, hits and homers in 40 innings this season than he did in 72 1/3 frames last year. A 3.24 xFIP and 2.87 SIERA each portend better days, but it’s tough to understate what a disappointing season it’s been for Diaz so far.

All of that said, Diaz appears healthy and still possesses an elite arsenal of pitches. Paired with the fact that he’s not eligible for arbitration until this winter and can be controlled through the 2022 season, Diaz’s plus raw stuff surely gives other clubs confidence that he can be fixed (be it through pitch selection, a mechanical adjustment, improved defense behind him, etc.). The Boston bullpen has lacked established talent all season, and the relief corps has been particularly problematic this summer.

As for the Mets, they seemingly hope to structure their 2020 rotation around 2018 Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and Stroman — a fine one-two combination, to be sure — and believe they’ll get more in trading away others than they surrendered to acquire Stroman. While they can’t unscramble the egg, so to speak, and recoup the value they lost in dealing Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista to the Mariners (while taking on half the remaining money on Robinson Cano’s deal), the apparently forthcoming slate of trades should indeed replenish their farm to an extent. Syndergaard has more trade value than Stroman did, and Diaz should fetch some quality young talent if he is indeed shipped off.

Nonetheless, it’d be a dizzying sequence of moves that wouldn’t clearly leave the Mets better off than they started. While it’s commendable, on the one hand, that the team continues to eye contention in the short-term rather than acquiesce to the growing trend of large-scale rebuilds, the tightrope act the Mets look to be attempting is rife with risk. Perhaps moving Diaz and Syndergaard can each net a near-MLB-ready asset or two, but it’s not at all clear that they’d be in a better position with Stroman and those theoretical young assets. Stroman himself isn’t a particularly controllable player, after all, as he’ll be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason. If things go south again next year, he’d likely be traded as a rental for less than the Mets paid to acquire him. And, in moving Diaz by Wednesday, they’d open a need for further late-inning bullpen help in the offseason — the very same need that led to this situation.

Royals Release Lucas Duda

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The Royals announced Monday that they’ve requested unconditional release waivers on first baseman/designated hitter Lucas Duda. He’ll be a free agent in 48 hours once he clears.

Kansas City designated Duda, 33, for assignment over the weekend. He signed a minor league contract with the club in Spring Training after being cut loose from a similar pact he’d signed with the Twins. However, Duda mustered only a .171/.252/.324 batting line with four home runs in 119 trips to the plate in his second stint with the Royals. Given the magnitude of those struggles and the number of alternate options — Ryan O’Hearn, Cheslor Cuthbert and even Frank Schwindel, who was released over Duda early in the year — it’s a bit surprising that Duda lasted on the roster as long as he did.

Duda’s track record against right-handed pitching could get him a minor league deal elsewhere once he reaches the open market. He’s a lifetime .249/.351/.481 hitter when holding the platoon advantage at the Major League level, and he hit .264/.336/.477 in such situations just last year. But Duda is also strictly a first baseman, if not a pure designated hitter in the eyes of clubs around the league at this point in his career. If he’s to find his way back onto a big league roster, he’ll likely need to head to Triple-A and show some signs of life against minor league opposition in order to earn another look.

Braves Interested In Joe Biagini

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There’s been plenty written about potential deals between the Blue Jays and Braves recently, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that Atlanta’s trade talks with Toronto center around a different target than most would expect: right-handed reliever Joe Biagini.

That Biagini would be a trade candidate isn’t exactly a surprise. He’s controlled through the 2022 season via arbitration, and the Blue Jays are likely to willing to deal from anywhere outside their emerging core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and other young, pre-arbitration players. Still, for an Atlanta club eyeing bullpen help, a higher-end target like Ken Giles is likely the name that most would expect to hear when discussing potential deals with Toronto.

Biagini, 29, has been with the Blue Jays since he was selected out of the Giants organization in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft. Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos had already left the Toronto organization by the time Biagini was selected, but two of his assistant GMs with the Braves, Perry Minasian and Jason Pare, were with the Jays when that selection was made.

During the 2016 season, Biagini enjoyed one of the more successful Rule 5 seasons in recent memory. His rookie campaign featured 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9 and a 52.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, the Blue Jays’ subsequent attempt to move Biagini into the rotation in 2017 proved an ill-fated mistake, and his 2018 season spent mostly back in the bullpen didn’t yield quality results, either (6.00 ERA in 72 innings).

The 2019 season has seen Biagini bounce back to the tune of a 3.75 ERA over the life of 48 innings. He’s been homer-prone — like most of the league — but is sporting a career-high 9.0 K/9 against an even 3.0 BB/9 with a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. There’s reason to be optimistic about further improvement, too; Biagini’s 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate is easily a career-best, as is his 36.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone. The spin rate on his breaking ball is elite as well, ranking 21st of 399 big league pitchers to throw the pitch at least 100 times dating back to 2016.

Biagini avoided arbitration as a Super Two player this past offseason, settling on a $900K salary that’d be affordable for any interested party. He’ll go through arbitration another three times before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason, but as a non-closing reliever, he won’t receive exorbitant raises through the arbitration process.

Cubs, Orioles Have Discussed Jonathan Villar

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The Cubs have discussed a Jonathan Villar trade with the Orioles, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, though he adds that a match between the two teams appears unlikely at this time.

Chicago was tied to Eric Sogard before he was traded from Toronto to Tampa Bay, and Addison Russell’s recent demotion to Triple-A Iowa further illustrates that the Cubs could be in the mix for a second baseman. The potential return of Ben Zobrist, who is slated to head out on a minor league rehab assignment, could lessen any urgency to make an outside addition, though.

Villar has split the 2019 season between shortstop and second base in Baltimore, drawing negative reviews at second base from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating a year after rating quite well in both categories. His familiarity with shortstop would also be a welcome addition for the Cubs, given that Russell’s demotion left the MLB roster without a true backup to Javier Baez there.

The 28-year-old Villar is hitting .262/.326/.421 with 13 home runs, 22 doubles, two triples and 22 stolen bases (in 28 attempts). Villar’s speed is an element the Cubs’ roster currently lacks. His 22 steals are only seven fewer than the Cubs have totaled as a team. Villar’s wheels likely hold some interest to the Cubs — they’ve also been connected to fleet-footed D-backs outfielder Jarrod Dyson — but Villar’s 24.1 percent strikeout rate (26.7 percent for his career) don’t align with Chicago’s reported interest in adding hitter with plus contact skills (e.g. Sogard, Dyson).

From a contractual standpoint, Villar is affordable. He’s being paid $4.825MM in 2019 (with about $1.66MM yet to be paid out) and is controllable via arbitration for the 2020 season as well. The Orioles were also willing to include some cash in the trade that sent Andrew Cashner to Boston, providing reason to believe they’d be willing to do so with their other trade assets as a means of sweetening the prospect return. Given his relative proximity to free agency and the Orioles’ aggressive tear-down, Villar is a logical trade candidate in the next three days. However, the demand for pitching help throughout the league is far greater than the demand for middle infielders, and the Orioles don’t necessarily need to move Villar if no appealing offer materializes.

Rangers Outright Carlos Tocci

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Rangers outfielder Carlos Tocci has been assigned outright to Triple-A Nashville after clearing waivers, the club announced over the weekend. Tocci was designated for assignment last week.

Tocci, 23, hasn’t appeared in the Majors this season, instead spending the entire year to date with the Rangers’ top affiliate in Nashville. Texas kept him on the big league roster as a Rule 5 Draft pick in 2018 but seldom used him, as he batted .225/.271/.283 in just 135 plate appearances over 66 games. Despite the explosive offensive environment in Triple-A this season, Tocci is hitting .246/.317/.312 in 360 trips to the plate.

Scouting reports on Tocci have credited him with above-average speed and defensive capabilities, including a plus throwing arm. He indeed landed in the 76th percentile among big leaguers in terms of average sprint speed in 2018, and Statcast tabbed him at four outs above average despite his limited time in the outfield. There have long been questions about Tocci’s bat, however, and this season’s poor showing at the plate has done little to abate them.

Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler

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10:35pm: It isn’t definite the Mets will trade Syndergaard, per reports from Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and Anthony Rieber of Newsday, though Rieber adds the club’s “working hard” to move him. The Astros are “pessimistic” about their chances of acquiring Syndergaard, DiComo writes. Meanwhile, it “doesn’t sound like” the Mets and Twins have made headway toward a deal, Martino tweets.

3:58pm: Mets righty Noah Syndergaard has emerged as the perhaps the most talked-about name on the trade market, and his name once again figures to dominate headlines — much as it did in the offseason. Meanwhile, scouts will be watching closely as fellow starter Zack Wheeler takes the hill tonight for his lone pre-deadline showcase start. Here’s the latest on both hurlers …

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets are seeking an MLB-ready starter who can step right into the rotation in place of Syndergaard, then some additional high-end prospects after that. The pitcher in question needn’t technically be the headliner in the deal, but presumably the Mets are eyeing a controllable (pre-arbitration) starter as well as premier minor leaguers beyond that point.

That aligns with recent reports from SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), who suggests that the Mets view the Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees as the best on-paper fits in a deal. The Padres and Braves, in particular, are rich with MLB-ready pitchers in the upper minors, and Sherman lists that pair of organizations as the two that the Mets feel are best-positioned to work out a deal.

Notably, Sherman calls the Astros the “most aggressive” pursuer of Syndergaard, but Houston has seen its top pitching prospects take a step back in 2019. Forrest Whitley (shoulder fatigue) has barely pitched in 2019. Corbin Martin underwent Tommy John surgery. Martino suggests that neither the Astros nor Twins are viewed as prime trade partners — likely because other interested parties have better MLB-ready arms to offer. It was reported this morning that the Twins and Mets have discussed Syndergaard, with the Mets showing particular interest in shortstop Royce Lewis and outfielder Alex Kirilloff.

Looking at the teams the Mets apparently believe to be fits, it’s a bit of an eyebrow-raiser to see the Yankees and Braves listed. The Yankees and Mets haven’t lined up on a trade in more than a decade, and the frequent reports out of New York portraying the contempt that Mets owner Fred Wilpon has toward the Yankees make a deal of this nature seem decidedly unlikely. Meanwhile, trading Syndergaard to a division rival would be difficult for Mets fans to stomach, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2021 season.

Whether the Houston organization can put together a compelling package for Syndergaard, they’ll have other things to talk about with the Mets front office. The ’Stros are “one of many” teams that have interest in Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Martino tweets that the Yankees also remain interested in Wheeler and will be watching intently this evening.

Latest On Nationals’ Bullpen Pursuits

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4:10pm: The Nats are also in touch with the Blue Jays regarding their relief arms, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Both Ken Giles and Daniel Hudson are said to be of interest to D.C.

11:40am: The Nationals are known to be on the lookout for multiple relievers following their meteoric rise back up the standings, and ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the team’s preference is to add a left-handed reliever. General manager Mike Rizzo won’t limit himself to only southpaws, though, and to that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Nationals are in active pursuit of White Sox righty Alex Colome and Tigers righty Shane Greene.

Washington’s interest in Greene isn’t new; it’s been reported on multiple times in the past and is also a relatively obvious match simply from a common sense standpoint. The Nationals figure to have checked in on virtually every reliever’s asking price by now, and MLB.com’s Jamal Collier recently reported that the Tigers made the sky-high ask of top shortstop prospect Carter Kieboom in initial talks with the Nationals. One can hardly blame the Tigers for aiming high, but that price point indeed seems rather lofty. Still, the fact that Washington is still showing interest suggests that the two sides could come to terms on a deal just yet.

Whether the White Sox were keen on moving Colome earlier this month wasn’t clear, but the South Siders’ poor play of late has dropped them to 10 games under .500. The club is making efforts to move beyond its rebuild and plans to make a push in 2020, so perhaps the preference is to retain Colome. Still, he’ll likely top $10MM in arbitration earnings next season, so it’d also be reasonable for Chicago to cash in if GM Rick Hahn can find a trade partner willing to make a decent offer.

Both Greene and Colome are controlled through the 2020 season, with Greene’s $4MM salary checking in considerably lower than Colome’s $7.325MM rate. As such, even though Greene is having a better season, his salary next year will likely be more affordable.

In 37 innings, Greene has posted a pristine 1.22 ERA with 10.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 and a 54.3 percent ground-ball rate. Colome, meanwhile, has a rather pedestrian 7.0 K/9 mark against 2.8 BB/9 and 0.93 HR/9. Both closers have benefited tremendously from unsustainable averages on balls in play (.180 for Greene and .153 for Colome) and strand rates near 83 percent. Greene’s lower salary and superior strikeout and ground-ball rates make him to more appealing of the pair but also mean that he’ll probably come with a higher asking price. And even with some degree of regression likely for both pitchers, each is still a quality arm who’d give the Nats a much-needed upgrade to a setup corps that has been problematic all season long.

Royals Working On Jake Diekman Trade

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12:02pm: The Dodgers stood out as the likely “frontrunners” from the start, tweets Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. However, he adds that the Nationals and Phillies both still have Diekman on their radar.

11:53am: The Royals “could be getting closer” to a trade involving left-handed reliever Jake Diekman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Both the Braves and Dodgers have been showing strong interest in the southpaw, he adds.

Diekman, 32, is playing out the season on a one-year, $2.25MM contract, though he’s also owed a $500K buyout on a $5.75MM mutual option that doesn’t seem likely to be exercised (as is the case with virtually all mutual options). That puts the remaining obligation to Diekman around $1.3MM between now and season’s end.

While Diekman’s 4.75 ERA isn’t going to excite most fans, he’s also notched a hefty 13.6 K/9 mark and kept the ball on the ground at a 48-4 percent clip. Left-handed opponents have batted just .213 and slugged .255 against him. As has oft been the case for Diekman throughout his career, though, control has been an issue. He’s averaged five walks per nine innings pitched this season and plunked another eight hitters. As such, Diekman has yielded an overall .213/.362/.255 line to lefties and a .211/.331/.358 line to right-handed hitters.

Diekman is technically controlled beyond the 2019 season, but mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. Typically, if a player performs well enough to justify that salary, he’s inclined to test the open market. And if a player doesn’t perform up to that standard, the club will of course buy the option out. Perhaps the changing landscape of free agency will make a player such as Diekman — one with limited earning power but who could justify a net $5.25MM decision with a strong finish — more likely to exercise his half of the provision, but there’s limited historic precedent.

Royals Reportedly “Not Inclined” To Pay Down Salary In Trades

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As we explored here several months ago, Ian Kennedy has gone from a starter on an albatross contract to a highly intriguing reliever this season, making him a fairly logical trade candidate for the 39-65 Royals. Kansas City is indeed getting interest in not only Kennedy but also left-hander Danny Duffy, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Both players are on sizable contracts, however, and Rosenthal adds that Kansas City is “not inclined” to make a deal if it means paying down either veteran’s deal to a more palatable rate. The Royals “value [Kennedy and Duffy] as place-holders until their younger pitchers develop,” per the report.

With regard to Duffy, that’s a rather logical stance to take. He’s a homegrown player who was extended to much fanfare in Kansas City, and while the $15-16MM he’s being paid on an annual basis outstrips his recent production, it’s not an egregious overpay. Signed through the 2021 season, Duffy has at least been a serviceable arm. He owns a 4.32 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and is averaging 8.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 while still carrying the upside of pitching at a higher level.

Trading Duffy, even with an acquiring team taking on all of his money (which is highly unlikely) would be selling low. The lefty was the Royals’ best starter in 2016-17, tossing a combined 326 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9. It’s possible that with a strong finish to the 2019 season and/or a strong first half in 2020, Duffy’s value could increase. Paying down his contract and seeing his value increase in the future would be a bitter pill to swallow — particularly because the present-day return in a theoretical trade would be relatively modest.

As pertains to Kennedy, though, it’s a somewhat befuddling mindset. He’s four years older than Duffy, only signed through the end of the 2020 season (at annual rates of $16.5MM) and is pitching more effectively than he has at any point in his Royals tenure. Kennedy is currently sporting a 3.40 ERA, but he’s also recorded a 2.16 FIP and a 3.17 SIERA mark. The right-hander is averaging 11.1 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 with a career-high 45.5 percent ground-ball rate. Suddenly, in a relief role, Kennedy is missing bats, limiting walks and home runs, and generating grounders all at career-best rates. His value could well be at its apex, and a once-untradeable pitcher now looks like a player who could be moved and return an intriguing prospect or two if the Royals pay him down to market value (or even lower).

Were Kennedy a free agent this offseason, it’s easy to see him commanding a solid salary on a one-year deal or perhaps even a two-year pact. He’s owed $22.4MM from this writing through the end of the 2020 season, and while that’s more than he’d earn in free agency, it’s not outlandish to think he could earn himself $6-7MM annually on the open market. Paying him down to that rate, or even a bit further, could net some minor leaguers to further the club’s rebuild while also saving enough cash to sign a different “placeholder” (or two) in free agency.

If the Royals are eyeing contention in 2020, hats off to them for making an effort in a weak division at a time when so many other clubs are insistent on lengthy rebuilds that inherently come with diminishing returns. (The more clubs that tank, the less effective the benefits of tanking become.) But even if that’s the case, it’s hard to see how retaining Kennedy at $16.5MM for next season meshes with that plan. If the alternative is adding a quasi-interesting prospect or two and saving some money that could be reinvested in the 2020 roster, the Royals should be willing to sell Kennedy at peak value.

Twins, Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard

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The Twins and Mets have had discussions surrounding Noah Syndergaard since the Mets have made the right-hander available, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota has been linked to virtually every arm on the trade market — starter and reliever alike — so their inclusion in the Syndergaard bidding hardly comes as a shock. Nor is it surprising that Neal indicates that the Mets have focused in on top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff as potential headliners in a deal.

Lewis, 20, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2017, and the shortstop entered the season ranked as a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s scuffled a bit in his first exposure to Class-A Advanced, hitting .243/.295/.384 through 410 plate appearances. Lewis, though, is still rather young for the Florida State League and is still generally regarded as a premier prospect, even if there’s a bit more of a divide on his status at the moment. Baseball America dipped Lewis to No. 21 on its latest update of the game’s top 100 minor leaguers, while Lewis resides at No. 2 over on Fangraphs’ latest update.

Kirilloff, 21, also entered the season regarded as one of the game’s 20 best prospects. He hasn’t replicated last season’s dominant numbers between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, but the outfielder has turned in a .284/.351/.403 slash in 261 plate appearances against older, more experienced competition with Double-A Pensacola.

The Twins have reportedly been loath to part with either Lewis or Kirilloff — the same has been true of top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol — although Syndergaard brings a different level of appeal to the table than most other arms known to be available. He’s controlled through the 2021 season (a year longer than Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor), has multiple dominant seasons on his resume (unlike Matthew Boyd), is still in arbitration as opposed to on a guaranteed contract (unlike Zack Greinke) and, despite a lackluster ERA on the season, offers some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher in baseball.

Syndergaard still averages 97.7 mph on his heater with a slider he can throw in the low 90s, and every club in baseball surely has its own ideas about how to restore his bottom-line results to their previous levels, which more closely aligned with his premium arsenal. The Twins, in particular, have added incentive to pursue controllable starters; each of Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are free agents this winter.

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