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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/6/19

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2019 at 4:15pm CDT

We’ll track today’s minor moves — some of the first of this nascent offseason — in this post…

  • The Twins’ Triple-A affiliate announced the re-signing of catcher Tomas Telis and right-hander Jonathan Cheshire on minor league contracts. Telis, 28, appeared in the Majors each year from 2014-18, hitting a combined .230/.267/.298 in 267 plate appearances between the Marlins and Rangers. He’s a much more accomplished Triple-A hitter, though, and like many minor leaguers, he posted his best numbers ever in 2019’s heightened offensive environment in Triple-A. In 327 plate appearances with the Rochester Red Wings, Telis hit .330/.364/.490 with eight homers and 21 doubles. Cheshire, 25 this month, joined the Twins in August after struggling with the Blue Jays but showing well with the Somerset Patriots of the independent Atlantic League. Upon signing with the Twins, he tossed 13 2/3 shutout innings with a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio (one walk being intentional). The former 36th-round pick (Jays, 2017) will get another look in the upper levels of the Twins’ system on the heels of that impressive performance.
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Minnesota Twins Transactions Jonathan Cheshire Tomas Telis

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Josh Lindblom Eyeing MLB Return

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2019 at 3:13pm CDT

If you click through right-hander Josh Lindblom’s archives here at MLBTR, the headlines aren’t exactly eye-catching. A series of DFAs, outrights, releases and minor league re-signings with the Pirates make up most of the recent chatter on the 32-year-old, whom many readers may never even have heard of. Lindblom pitched 147 innings in parts of five seasons with the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, A’s and Pirates from 2011-17. Interspersed throughout were multiple stints with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization (2015-16 and a midseason return in 2017). Lindblom opened 2017 on a minor league deal with Pittsburgh but eventually returned to the KBO in relative anonymity among MLB fans.

There’s nothing “anonymous” about Lindblom’s past two seasons as far as KBO fans are concerned, though. While his 2017 campaign there was solid but unspectacular, Lindblom has erupted as one of the best pitchers in South Korea since the beginning of 2018. In two seasons with the Doosan Bears, Lindblom has worked to a combined 2.68 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 0.72 HR/9 in 363 1/3 innings. His 2019 strikeout, walk and home-run rates all improved over their already-strong 2018 marks as Lindblom racked up 194 2/3 innings with a 2.50 ERA. The righty flirted with a sub-2.00 ERA for much of the season and this week was announced as the winner of his second straight Choi Dong-Won Award — the top pitching award in the KBO.

With that run of excellence and a Korean Series championship in his back pocket, Lindblom now has his sights set on a return to Major League Baseball. Unlike last time when he quietly signed a minor league pact with the Pirates, however, he could very well find genuine interest on Major League offers. Lindblom’s current two-year platform tops that of fellow right-hander Merrill Kelly in just about every capacity, and Kelly landed a two-year, $5.5MM contract with the Diamondbacks last winter. It’s important to note that Kelly, who pitched this past season at age 30, was younger — but the gap between their numbers isn’t particularly close:

IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Merrill Kelly (2017-18) 348.333 3.82 1.29 9.04 2.38 0.88
Josh Lindblom (2018-19) 363.666 2.67 1.03 8.56 1.66 0.72

That’s obviously a pretty basic look at the pair’s stats overseas, but there’s nonetheless a notable discrepancy, even if Kelly did manage to strike batters out at a slightly higher rate.

There’s reason to consider Lindblom beyond his surface-level numbers, though. He isn’t going to blow big league hitters away with velocity — his heater averaged 91 mph this year in the KBO — but Lindblom has standout spin rates on his side. Data obtained by MLBTR puts his four-seamer at a hefty 2610 RPM this past season, while his splitter (where less spin is better) would also rank quite well among big league hurlers at 1200 RPM. The KBO ball isn’t the exact same as the MLB ball, so the carryover might not be exact, but Lindblom’s ability to spin the ball is something that could be of genuine intrigue to a Major League club.

Lindblom’s pitch selection has also changed over the past two seasons, with the 2019 version of the right-hander’s repertoire leaning much more heavily on a four-seamer/splitter/cutter combination than in the past. His slider, changeup and curveball were all used minimally (eight percent or lower), and he’s ditched his former two-seamer entirely. It seems likely that he’d continue to be reliant on the same three-pitch mix that fueled his breakout. The splitter, in particular, has developed into a weapon for Lindblom in the KBO despite the fact that he never threw the pitch during his time in MLB. Notably, he’s also generated extremely low levels of opponent exit velocity, though the weaker competition and different ball composition make it tough to discern exactly how to value that data.

Broadly speaking, that’ll be the question for Major League teams this winter: How should they react to a pitcher who was a fringe 40-man candidate in his last two MLB stints but has made demonstrable alterations that resulted in positive indicators?

It’s easy to dream on Lindblom’s KBO numbers, but remember that even star-caliber KBO players haven’t been compensated particularly well by Major League teams. Jung Ho Kang and ByungHo Park were MVP-caliber talents in South Korea but secured respective guarantees of $11MM and $12MM over four-year terms from the Pirates and Twins. The aforementioned Kelly was clearly an above-average starter in KBO’s hitter-friendly environment but didn’t secure $3MM per season in MLB guarantees — and his contract with the D-backs surrendered two additional years of control via affordable club options.

Penciling in Lindblom at even a $5-6MM salary would be aggressive based on prior trends, and age certainly won’t help his case. Team executives with whom MLBTR inquired suggested Lindblom could be viewed anywhere from a swingman to an intriguing back-of-the-rotation starter. Despite the gap in stats between Lindblom and Kelly in the KBO, not everyone who weighed in was sold on Lindblom as the better long-term play.

In this year’s edition of our annual Top 50 Free Agents (published Monday), we ranked Lindblom near the back end of the list and pegged him for a two-year deal worth a total of $8MM. That doesn’t sound like much to most onlookers — and realistically won’t cut deeply into any team’s payroll — but it’d nevertheless be a fairly risky gamble on a 32-year-old who has never found much MLB success.

Perhaps a club will fall in love with the spin and his highly GIF-able splitter — tip of the cap to Sung Min Kim (Twitter links) — but we’ve yet to see a pitcher who fits this career arc top the two years and $15.5MM that Miles Mikolas secured in 2017. Mikolas came back in advance of his age-29 season and had a more dominant three-year run in Japan than Lindblom has had in Korea. As such, that contract felt too aggressive to project, but something between Kelly’s deal and that contract seems plausible. Last offseason, swingman Jesse Chavez signed for that same two-year, $8MM we projected, so it doesn’t seem outlandish to suggest a comparable amount for Lindblom.

Lindblom has also drawn interest from teams in Japan and could quite likely receive a nice offer to return to the Bears in 2020, so he’ll have choices at his disposal this winter. Regardless of where he lands this time around, he’s a source of greater intrigue than he was the last time he was quietly available for any team to sign.

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MLBTR Originals Josh Lindblom

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 9:18pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Brewers lost MVP candidate Christian Yelich to a knee fracture in early September but nevertheless rode a torrid hot streak to an NL Wild Card berth. The Milwaukee Magic ran out earlier this season than last, however, as the Brewers couldn’t overcome the Nationals in that one-game showdown. It’ll be back to the drawing board again for president of baseball ops David Stearns and his staff, who’ll enter the offseason with question marks behind the plate, in the infield and on the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $51MM through 2022
  • Christian Yelich, OF: $27.75MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
  • Ryan Braun, OF: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.2MM
  • Travis Shaw – $4.7MM
  • Zach Davies – $5.0MM
  • Junior Guerra – $3.5MM
  • Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM
  • Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.6MM
  • Brent Suter – $900K
  • Josh Hader – $4.6MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Perez, Shaw, Guerra, Spangenberg, Saladino, Austin

Option Decisions

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Grandal declined $16MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $2.5MM buyout)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B/2B: Moustakas declined $11MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $3MM buyout)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: Brewers declined $7.5MM club option (Thames received $1MM buyout)
  • Manny Pina, C: Brewers exercised $1.85MM option

Free Agents

  • Grandal, Moustakas, Thames, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Albers, Tyler Austin (outrighted, elected free agency), Cory Spangenberg (outrighted, elected free agency), Hernan Perez (outrighted, elected free agency)

For a team that just enjoyed its second postseason berth in two years, the Brewers have a surprising number of holes to fill. The rotation will be an obvious point of focus, but the lineup offers its share of uncertainty as well.

Both Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas declined mutual options, as expected, removing two of the team’s better bats from the equation. First base will also be a possible point of focus after Milwaukee paid a $1MM buyout rather than exercising a $7.5MM option on slugger Eric Thames. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw struggled through the worst season of his career and isn’t a sure bet to be tendered a contract — let alone to be a major contributor in 2020. At shortstop, Orlando Arcia posted an anemic .223/.283/.350 batting line in 586 plate appearances.

In summary: the Brewers will be in the market for a catcher, at least one corner infielder and perhaps a shortstop. First base could be an area of need as well. That’s a lot of work to tackle even before looking at the pitching staff, so let’s begin with the lineup.

Grandal shocked onlookers, MLBTR included, when he spurned a reported four-year offer from the Mets last winter to sign a one-year pact with Milwaukee. After the agreement, Grandal spoke about the obligation he felt to prioritize a higher annual salary as a means of advancing the market for future catchers.

Perhaps that was a bit of PR spin or perhaps it was genuine; whatever it was, Grandal proved with a .246/.380/.468 batting line and his characteristic brand of strong defense that he should be Milwaukee’s priority this winter. There’s no doubt that retaining him would be expensive — particularly if Grandal’s preference is once again for a premium annual rate at the expense of length. But the Brewers would be within their means and within reason if they offered Grandal an annual salary in the $20MM range over a three-year term. If he’s willing to sign a four-year pact at a slightly lesser rate, that’d be well worth considering, too. As for the backup role, paying a net $1.7MM for Pina’s quality glove is perfectly sensible.

There’s also a strong argument in favor of re-signing Moustakas. It’s tough to pay Shaw a projected $4.7MM as a rebound candidate, but reallocating that money to a new pact for Moustakas would create needed stability in an infield mix where only breakout rookie Keston Hiura appears locked into a spot (second base). Despite a quality run that now includes four above-average seasons in five years, Moustakas simply hasn’t been valued all that highly in two trips to the open market. Retaining him on a two-year deal comparable to this season’s value would be a worthwhile avenue to explore.

Of course, offseason demand will dictate the price points for Grandal and Moustakas, and at a certain juncture the Brewers will be willing to move on. Should that happen, they’ll have a bevy of catching alternatives from which to choose, including a perhaps on-the-rise Travis d’Arnaud, a steady defender in Jason Castro and a quality veteran bat in Robinson Chirinos (among others). There are fewer reasonably priced free agents at the hot corner — Anthony Rendon is too lofty a target — but perhaps if Grandal spurns a robust three-year offer, the Brewers could look to the older-but-still-excellent Josh Donaldson in a similar price range.

Uncertainty at the infield corners notwithstanding, the biggest problem area in the infield is shortstop, where the aforementioned Arcia has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded him as a minor leaguer. Once ranked inside the game’s Top 10 overall prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Arcia has mustered a miserable .243/.292/.360 batting line in nearly 1700 MLB plate appearances. The Brewers have entrusted primary shortstop duties to him for three straight seasons and come away with virtually nothing to show for it. If you’re looking for a clean fit for Didi Gregorius, Milwaukee is a good place to start.

Shifting focus to the pitching staff, it’s somewhat amazing that Milwaukee made it as far as it did with the staff in place. The Brewers, by Stearns’ own admission, “tend to blur the lines” between starters and relievers more than most clubs. You want see many Milwaukee starters even pitch six innings, but their success while relying on Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Adrian Houser and IL returnees Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter and Jimmy Nelson was remarkable. Both Nelson and Woodruff have high ceilings and have realized that potential for significant stretches of time, but both have battled recent injuries. Nelson missed most of 2019 while recovering from shoulder surgery, while a severe oblique strain sidelined Woodruff for two months.

That duo, if healthy, gives the Brewers a foundation for the starting staff in 2020. But Milwaukee has already moved on from Anderson, whom they didn’t trust for more than five innings at a time in 2019. With his $8.5MM option deemed more expensive than the organization was willing to spend, Anderson was flipped to the pitching-needy Blue Jays on the first day of the offseason. That move saved some money but also further thinned out the Brewers’ depth.

The Brewers may yet be hopeful that right-handers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta can function as starters — or at least a multi-inning role of some sort — but the organization could still stand to bring in a source of stable innings. Similar arguments have been made in each of the past two offseasons, and the Brewers responded rather tepidly by adding Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez on low-risk deals. That history makes it hard to predict that the Brewers will step up in pursuit of any high-end starter, but they at least make sense for some reasonably priced upside plays. Jordan Lyles (again), Drew Smyly and Michael Wacha could fit the bill. Or, the Brewers could operate as they have most recently and wait to see who’s left without a seat at the end of this offseason’s game of musical chairs.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will likely be intrigued by any pitcher they believe capable of throwing more than an inning at a time. Drew Pomeranz morphed into a late-inning monster in Milwaukee and recorded four or more outs in nearly a third of his appearances down the stretch. Pomeranz’s unexpected dominance could make him a buzz reliever who generates multi-year interest, but if the Brewers plan to continue sticking to low-cost rotation options, spending more to retain a pitcher who looked like a potential high-end relief weapon would make sense.

Alternatively, Milwaukee wants to pursue some higher-end targets to pair with Josh Hader and a returning Corey Knebel next season, they could look into a Will Smith reunion or pursue Will Harris. This year’s market is generally lacking in top-flight setup options, though veterans like Joe Smith, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen have generally solid track records. And, as always, the trade market will present limitless opportunities for Stearns & Co. to explore as they look to piece together what should once again be one of the game’s more unique assemblies of pitchers.

Depending on the moves the Brewers make on the position-player side of the coin, they’ll need that penchant for creative pitching staff construction to its fullest extent. Assuming some additional non-tenders (Shaw, Junior Guerra, and Tyler Saladino), the Brewers currently project to have about $73.5MM in 2020 commitments. That’s roughly $49MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, but the aforementioned needs at catcher, third base and shortstop could all be costly to fill — particularly if retaining Grandal is deemed a Lorenzo Cain-esque priority (that is to say — a relatively unique free agent worth deviating from the more value-based mindset with which the organization typically approaches the open market).

There’ll be a lot written about the Brewers’ need to add legitimate starting pitching help this winter, but that hasn’t been how this front office has operated. Milwaukee has persistently bucked conventional wisdom when putting together rosters that feature exceptional flexibility in the lineup, on the pitching staff and on the fringes of the 25-man roster itself. The addition of a 26th roster spot next season might allow other clubs to follow in those footsteps a bit, but Milwaukee’s knack for cultivating depth and leveraging versatility is among the best in the game.

The Brewers will need to employ that same creativity in the months to come as they look to reshape the infield and deepen their pitching staff in an effort to keep up with the division-champion Cardinals, the typically aggressive Cubs (last winter being a notable exception) and a Reds team that is more motivated to win than at any point in recent history.

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2019-20 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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Athletics Hire Adam Rosales As Minor League Coach

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 6:30pm CDT

Longtime utility infielder Adam Rosales looks to have called his playing career quits, as the Athletics announced today that he’s been hired as a coach with the team’s affiliate in the Rookie-level Arizona League. The 36-year-old Rosales hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2018, but he split the 2019 campaign between the Triple-A affiliates for the Twins and Indians after signing a minor league pact with Minnesota last winter.

Adam Rosales | Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Today’s appointment seemingly marks the beginning of a new career track for the 11-year Major League veteran. It’s no surprise to see that the Athletics were the team to give Rosales his first coaching gig, as he spent more time as a player with the Athletics than he did with any other team.

Originally a 12th-round pick by the Indians back in 2005, Rosales ascended to the Majors by 2008. He made his way to the Athletics alongside Willy Taveras in a trade that sent Aaron Miles to Cincinnati two years later, and Rosales would go on to spend parts of the next four seasons donning the green and gold. Avid MLBTR readers may remember him as a particularly bizarre hot stove anecdote; back in 2013, Rosales went from the Athletics to the Rangers to the Athletics and back to the Rangers in a series of waiver claims that occurred over a span of just 10 days. Others may fondly remember Rosales as the owner of one of the fastest home run trots the world will ever see.

On the field, Rosales played at least 500 innings at all four infield positions in addition to making much briefer appearances in the outfield corners. He played in 651 big league games and took 1807 plate appearances as a Major Leaguer between the A’s, Rangers, Reds, Diamondbacks, Padres and Indians. He’ll conclude his playing career with a .226/.291/.365 batting line, 48 homers, 69 doubles and six triples at the MLB level.

Also of note for Oakland fans: the organization announced today that former American League Rookie of the Year Bobby Crosby, who served as a coach with the team’s Double-A affiliate in 2019, will take over as the new manager in Class-A Stockton for the 2020 season.

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Athletics Adam Rosales Bobby Crosby Retirement

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Job Openings — San Diego Padres Baseball Operations

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 4:39pm CDT

From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

The San Diego Padres are looking to grow their Research and Development team and bring in individuals with a passion for baseball and winning through data-driven decision making. Through both collaborative and individual work, members of the team will impact every part of the R&D process: idea and question generation, data exploration and analysis, development of decision making tools utilizing analyses, and communication of results to decision makers and other staff. Ideal candidates are those that are excited to challenge the status quo, improve how the organization makes decisions, and contribute to the continual development of the department.

For additional details and/or to submit an application, follow the links below:

  • Senior Analyst, Baseball Research & Development
  • Analyst, Baseball Research & Development
  • Developer, Baseball Systems

Relocation to San Diego is not a requirement for these positions; remote candidates will be considered, though some travel will be necessary.

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Industry Job Openings San Diego Padres

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Giants Announce Series Of Roster Moves

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 2:37pm CDT

The Giants announced a flurry of roster moves, claiming infielder Kean Wong from the Angels and right-hander Trevor Oaks from the Royals. The Giants also formally announced their previously reported claim of righty Rico Garcia from the Rockies organization. In order to open space on for the trio of new additions, San Francisco designated outfielder Mike Gerber and right-hander Ricardo Pinto for assignment.

Wong’s time in the Angels organization will ultimately last barely more than a month. The Halos claimed him from the Rays near the end of the season, and the 24-year-old went hitless in four plate appearances in the lone game for which he suited up with the team. Wong, the younger brother of Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong, was the Rays’ fourth-round pick back in the 2013 draft and made his MLB debut as a September call-up with Tampa Bay. Between his six games with the Rays and one game with the Angels, he went 3-for-18.

Wong spent the rest of the season with Triple-A Durham, where he logged his second consecutive above-average season at the plate. After hitting .282/.345/.406 with nine homers, 23 doubles, three triples and seven steals in 2018, he turned in a .307/.375/.464 slash with 10 homers, 29 doubles, six triples and six steals in 2019. Offense was elevated throughout the league in Triple-A this season, but Wong’s output checked in at 16 percent better than league average, as measured by wRC+. Primarily been a second baseman in his minor league career, Wong began logging time at third base and in the outfield beginning in 2018 as the Rays looked to enhance his versatility.

Oaks, meanwhile, is a known commodity for Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. The 26-year-old Oaks was a seventh-round pick by Zaidi’s former club, the Dodgers, back in 2014 and was traded to Kansas City in a three-team swap while Zaidi was serving as general manager under L.A. president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman.

At the time of that trade, which sent Scott Alexander to Los Angeles, Oaks was ranked in the middle of the Dodgers’ farm system. He looked like a potential back-of-the-rotation option but has seen his prospect status derailed by hip surgery that wiped out his 2019 season. He was healthy enough to take the ball in the Arizona Fall League this year, though, where he allowed six earned runs on 14 hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings of work.

Oaks was hit hard in his MLB debut in 2018 but did put together 128 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball with Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate that season. Unfortunately, he averaged a dismal 4.9 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 along the way — though his 50.8 percent ground-ball rate was a bit more encouraging. For now, Oaks will add some upper-level depth to the Giants roster.

None of the three players claimed today, however, should be considered any kind of lock to survive the winter on the Giants’ roster. Zaidi and his staff have been known to aggressively claim players off waivers in hopes of successfully passing that player through waivers themselves shortly thereafter as a means of keeping those new talents without dedicating a 40-man roster spot.

As for the players cut loose — neither is particularly surprising. Gerber, 27, went 1-for-24 in his brief time with the Giants at the MLB level, though he did author an impressive .308/.368/.569 batting line with 26 homers in Triple-A. The former Tigers prospect had never hit much in Triple-A before that, however, and he’ll turn 28 next summer.

Pinto, meanwhile, was a September waiver claim out of the Rays organization who never pitched in a game for San Francisco. He allowed four runs in 2 1/3 innings with Tampa Bay this season in addition to 123 1/3 innings of 4.23 ERA ball at the Triple-A level. The Giants have seven days to trade, release or waive Gerber and Pinto.

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Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels San Francisco Giants Transactions Kean Wong Mike Gerber Ricardo Pinto Trevor Oaks

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Super Two Cutoff Set At 2.115 Years Of Service

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 8:50am CDT

NOV. 5: This year’s cutoff is set at precisely 2.115 days of service, MLBTR has learned.

OCT. 10: This year’s cutoff point to determine Super Two status will be unusually low, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (via Twitter). While an exact cutoff point is yet unclear, McCalvy reports that Josh Hader, who has two years and 115 days of MLB service time (abbreviated as 2.115) will be eligible for arbitration this winter. In essence, that means that Hader is about to become a very well-compensated reliever. That would’ve been the case in the 2020-21 offseason anyway, but he’ll now tap into that earning power a year early. It’s also worth noting that this cutoff point will place Miami’s JT Riddle, who finished the season at 2.118 years of service, into arbitration eligibility as well.

A 2.115 cutoff would already be the lowest Super Two threshold in the past decade. The previous lowpoints in that span came in 2010 and 2013, when the cutoff was 2.122. Last year, it settled at 2.134. If the threshold is any lower this season, others could also be impacted. Arizona’s Luke Weaver (2.112) and Oakland’s Matt Chapman (2.109) are the most notable names within reasonable distance of Hader’s 2.115.

Super Two designation is one of the innumerable quirks to the ever-confounding arbitration system. For the unfamiliar, Major League players earn “service time” for every day spent on an MLB roster. One year of MLB service is defined as 172 days — despite the fact that there are more days than that in the regular season. (This year’s season was 186 days; again — hooray for quirks!)

Upon reaching three years of service time, all players become eligible for salary arbitration. Prior to that point, teams are effectively able to set (most) player salaries at any rate they wish, so long as it is north of the league minimum. Many teams have formulas they use to determine pre-arbitration salaries, and it’s quite rare for pre-arb players to earn even $1MM (barring a long-term extension). Arbitration is the first point at which players and their agents can begin negotiating with teams regarding their salary, though arbitration prices still typically fall shy of open-market value.

The “Super Two” wrinkle further complicates matters. The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service also are considered eligible for arbitration and termed “Super Two” players. Any player who falls into that service bucket and spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on a 25-man roster or the Major League injured list become eligible a year early and then go through the arbitration process four times.

In the case of Hader, he’s now in line for a fairly considerable salary. He has 37 more innings, eight more saves and a whopping 116 more strikeouts than his own teammate, Corey Knebel, had when reaching arbitration as a Super Two player last season. Knebel landed a $3.65MM salary, which Hader should handily top. Beyond that, Hader’s subsequent raises in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be built off a higher base because of his early entry into the arbitration process.

Once the exact cutoff is determined, we’ll add projections for Hader, Riddle and any other newly minted arbitration-eligible players to our just-released annual list of arbitration projections.

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Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers J.T. Riddle Josh Hader

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Braves, Nick Markakis Agree To New Deal

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2019 at 1:24pm CDT

The Braves have agreed to re-sign outfielder Nick Markakis to a one-year deal worth $4MM, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Atlanta held a $6MM option on Markakis with a $2MM buyout, and it seems they’ve handled that option in the exact same manner they handled an identical option over catcher Tyler Flowers. Atlanta bought out both options and re-signed the veterans to one-year deals, thus giving each player the full value of his $6MM option while only counting $4MM in salary toward the 2020 payroll.

It’s a somewhat odd accounting measure for a team that doesn’t figure to approach the luxury tax in 2020, though perhaps they’ve simply been given a clear budget for the 2020 payroll by Liberty Media and found an easy means of freeing up some funds for next season. Whatever the reasoning, the end result is that both veterans will be back with the team on affordable short-term deals for the 2020 campaign.

Markakis, 36 later this month, has been a fixture in the Braves’ lineup for the past five seasons but saw a reduced role in 2019. That’s likely to be the case in 2020, particularly given the veteran’s recent struggles against left-handed pitching. While Markakis’ .285/.356/.402 batting line on the season was a bit better than league average, nearly all of the damage he did came against right-handed pitching. In 113 plate appearances against lefties, Markakis batted just .245/.310/.343 — a far cry from the .298/.371/.446 he recorded in 356 plate appearances against righties.

Atlanta has right-handed-hitting Adam Duvall on hand to serve as a platoon partner for Markakis, should they choose to go that route. Ender Inciarte and Ronald Acuna Jr., meanwhile, are currently in line to hold down the remainder of the outfield time. Of course, that plan could and arguably should change this winter. Inciarte is a clear trade candidate, and the Braves could certainly look to add an offensive upgrade either in center field or at one of the corners (with Acuna then sliding into center field. Top prospect Cristian Pache is looming in the upper minors, too, and could make up for any defensive value lost by moving Inciarte.

At the moment, the Braves have about $54MM committed to the 2020 payroll, though that factor doesn’t include a projected $28.4MM in arbitration raises, nor does it include Julio Teheran’s potential salary. The right-hander has a $12MM option or a $1MM buyout that must be decided upon today. If Teheran is picked up and the entire arb class is retained, the Atlanta payroll would sit around $109MM (including a current slate of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster). That would check in south of last season’s $115MM Opening Day payroll and further south of 2017’s record $122.5MM mark. Of course, Teheran isn’t a lock to be picked up, Inciarte (and/or others) could be traded, and theoretical non-tenders could also impact the team’s bottom line.

The Braves have plenty of needs to address this offseason. Beyond their fluid outfield situation, the Braves need a starting catcher and have multiple avenues by which they could look to explore their pitching staff. A massive payroll spike might not be in the offing, but general manager Alex Anthopoulos is no stranger to putting together creative trade packages even in the face of fiscal limitations.

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Atlanta Braves Transactions Nick Markakis

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Reds Outright Four Players

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2019 at 1:18pm CDT

The Reds announced Monday that infielder/outfielder Derek Dietrich, infielder Christian Colon, right-hander Jackson Stephens and right-hander Keury Mella all went unclaimed on waivers and were set outright to Triple Louisville.

Dietrich, 30, is the most notable name of the group and will surely reject the assignment to once again become a free agent. The former Marlin parlayed a minor league deal in Cincinnati this offseason into an Opening Day roster spot and went on one of the more memorable power surges in recent memory midway through the year. Dietrich launched a dozen homers over a span of just 68 plate appearances in May and carried a 1.000 OPS into June. However, he fell into a slump that was perhaps even more remarkable than that home-run binge; in his final 71 plate appearances, he hit just .071/.257/.179.

Mella, 26, was acquired from the Giants alongside Adam Duvall in the 2015 trade that shipped righty Mike Leake to the Giants. He was considered to be among the more promising pitching prospects in Cincinnati in the couple of years following that trade but has seen his stock dip considerably. The righty yielded 15 runs in 17 Major League innings across parts of three seasons, posting an uninspiring 13-to-12 K/BB ratio during those stints. At the time of his acquisition, Mella was averaging better than a strikeout per inning against older competition in Class-A Advanced, but in parts of three Triple-A seasons he has a 4.59 ERA with 6.4 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 172 2/3 innings.

The 25-year-old Stephens had a big year with Double-A Pensacola back in 2016 but has limped to an ERA north of 5.00 in three trips through Triple-A Louisville while struggling to a 4.83 ERA through multiple MLB auditions. He spent the 2019 season in Triple-A, where he logged a 5.14 ERA with an 80-to-37 K/BB ratio in 84 innings, mostly as a reliever.

Colon, once the fourth overall pick in the draft and a top prospect with the Royals, appeared in just eight games with the Reds and made eight plate appearances. He’s a career .256/.321/.218 hitter in the Majors and batted .300/.372/.443 in Triple-A with the Reds this past season.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Christian Colon Derek Dietrich Keury Mella

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Brewers Decline 2020 Option On Eric Thames

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2019 at 12:42pm CDT

The Brewers announced Monday that they’ve declined their $7.5MM club option on first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames. He’ll be paid a $1MM buyout instead. While Thames doesn’t have the requisite six years of free agency to become a free agent, the three-year contract he signed upon returning to Major League Baseball from the Korea Baseball Organization stipulated that he become a free agent in the event that his 2020 option was bought out. As such, he’ll be added to the free-agent pool and is now free to sign with any club this winter.

It’s a somewhat surprising decision, as the 32-year-old Thames turned in a .247/.346/.505 batting line with 25 homers, 23 doubles and two triples in just 459 plate appearances. Thames did strike out at a 30.9 percent clip, but he also drew a walk in 11.1 percent of his plate appearances. Thames has been a pure platoon player for the Brewers of late, and the reasoning isn’t especially hard to discern; in 202 plate appearances against lefties since his return to the Majors, he’s batted .188/.287/.375. Against right-handed opponents, he’s hit .251/.354/.529 with 63 of his 72 home runs.

Thames spent the bulk of his time in 2019 at first base, though he’s no stranger to either outfield corner. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating credited him as a solid defender at first in 2019 but less so in the outfield (-4 DRS, -1.3 UZR, -6 Outs Above Average in 490 2/3 innings since returning).

The free-agent market generally hasn’t been welcoming to bat-first corner-only options like Thames in recent seasons — particularly those on the wrong side of 30. His ability to log some innings in the outfield corners will give him a leg up on some other more limited sluggers, particularly with teams able to roster a 26th player in 2020. It’s possible that Milwaukee will look to bring him back on a lower-priced one-year deal, but other speculative fits for Thames on the open market will include the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Nationals. Rebuilding clubs like the Marlins, Tigers and Royals could all conceivably take a look as well.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Transactions Eric Thames

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