In The Absence Of Opening Day…
The lack of baseball on what should be Opening Day is palpable, almost tangible. Regional sports networks around the country are airing classic games for fans to re-live. Reporters are taking to social media to share their favorite Opening Day photos — can I interest you in a 1980s Ken Rosenthal, Tim Kurkjian and Richard Justice throwback? — as well as stories and memories from covering season openers. Jameson Taillon, Marcus Stroman and dozens of other players are also sharing past Opening Day moments and reaching out to fans at a time when we all pine for normalcy. #OpeningDayAtHome is trending on Twitter.
“Even though we are apart, we can come together,” says Mike Trout at the end of a poignant video package produced by Major League Baseball. It’s a sentiment that’s not only being articulated by the game’s best player in that clip but one that’s been embodied by players and teams throughout the game. As the COVID-19 pandemic has uprooted our daily routines, fundamentally changed the manner in which we socialize and brought to light the myriad elements of our lives that are far too easily taken for granted, the baseball community has endeavored to lend a helping hand in countless ways.
The California Strong Foundation, founded by Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Ryan Braun and Rams quarterback Jared Goff, announced that it will be donating 100,000 meals to Feeding America. Jason Heyward donated $200,000 to a pair of Chicago-based charities, while teammate Anthony Rizzo‘s foundation has expanded its Hope44 Meals initiative to provide hot meals for patients and staff at Chicago hospitals (fans can contribute donations as well). Cardinals outfielder Dexter Fowler is matching every dollar donated to Three Square Food Bank’s Coronavirus Emergency Fund, focusing on providing meals to children, seniors, veterans and furloughed workers. Freddie Freeman has contributed $125,000 to a trio of Atlanta charities.
Over in Pittsburgh, Pirates players took it upon themselves to support the local restaurant scene and support the city’s healthcare workers when buying 400 pizzas from local restaurants to feed the staff at Allegheny General Hospital. “We aren’t able to be up in Pittsburgh, but we wanted to let hospital workers on the front lines and local businesses that mean so much to our home city know that we’re thinking of them,” Taillon told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “It was a no brainer from the players’ side.”
Recently retired players are stepping up, too. CC Sabathia‘s charity is partnering with FreshDirect to donate boxes of food to children at the Boys & Girls Club in the Bronx. Dan Haren is auctioning off his collection of 300 bobbleheads and including a personalized note and anecdote pertaining to each player’s bobblehead; proceeds are being donated to the Children’s Action Alliance in Phoenix and to the Hollywood Food Coalition in Los Angeles — two charities to which Haren himself has already made sizable contributions in the wake of the pandemic. The Diamondbacks, White Sox, Athletics and others have donated hundreds of thousands of dollars each to various community initiatives.
The ways in which baseball has reached out to the community are too plentiful to list. (By all means, though, share additional acts of goodwill in the comments and on social media.) We all badly miss the crack of the bat, the pop of a fastball hitting the catcher’s mitt and the inherent drama of a pitcher protecting a one-run lead in the ninth inning. But at a time when it’s so easy to lament what we’re missing, we at MLBTR thought it pertinent to shine a light on the many, many ways that this game we all love and cherish can still make us feel good.
Baseball will be back — whether it’s this summer, this autumn or even sometime in 2021. But the manner in which the athletes and teams that we love to follow, cheer and jeer are stepping up around the country and the globe serve to remind that the sport has evolved into more than a simple game. It’s a community and a collective agent of positive change that can inspire others and make a difference even when games aren’t being played. Stay safe, baseball fans.
White Sox Option Michael Kopech
The White Sox have optioned right-hander Michael Kopech to Triple-A Charlotte, the team announced. Whenever the season gets underway, he’ll open on the minor league side of things.
That’s long seemed like a formality. The 23-year-old Kopech is one of baseball’s premier pitching prospects but underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2018, shortly after making his big league debut. He returned to game activity during Cactus League play prior to MLB’s shutdown but worked just one inning. It was an impressive frame, as Kopech topped 100 mph regularly with his heater and set down all three hitters he faced — one via strikeout.
The White Sox will surely want to proceed slowly with Kopech as they build him back up to a starter’s workload. The rebuilt South Siders are aiming for a return to competitiveness in the AL Central beginning in 2020 — as evidenced by their winter additions of Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Gonzalez — but Kopech’s health is of greater importance on a long-term scale.
The 2020 rotation will be comprised primarily of Keuchel, Gonzalez, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and a combination of Carlos Rodon (also rehabbing from Tommy John) and Reynaldo Lopez. But it’s hard for Sox fans not to dream on an eventual rotation that includes healthy versions of Giolito, Kopech and Cease leading what could be one of the game’s more talented collections of arms. Of course, that assumes both Cease and Kopech make good on their lofty prospect rankings, and as highlighted by Lopez’s own struggles to date, there are no such guarantees. Still, it’s only logical to see Kopech head to Charlotte for a bit as he ramps back up in a more controlled setting.
MLB, MLBPA Agree On Framework Of 2020 Draft
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have reached an agreement on the framework of a delayed and shortened 2020 amateur draft, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports (Twitter thread). The notable changes would include pushing the draft back from early June to sometime in July, cutting the event to anywhere from five to ten rounds and partially deferring the payment of signing bonuses into the 2022 season.
Obviously, lopping off 75 percent of the rounds would lead to a vast number of undrafted amateurs — high school, junior college and four-year university students alike. McDaniel notes that there’s been discussion of a maximum bonus for undrafted players, though the $10,000 figure that’s been floated would likely bring about a dramatic uptick in the number of prep prospects opting to attend college and in the number of college juniors returning for a senior season.
The ramifications of such changes are numerous. The 2021 draft class would be immeasurably deeper, and the influx of high-quality college freshmen will in some ways flood college programs — perhaps leading to an increase of players selected out of the Division-II ranks of the NCAA. Many college seniors only sign for $10K as it is, so the financial component of those limited bonuses might not have a substantial impact, but it’ll nevertheless be atypical to see those players effectively create a secondary pool of free agents. As for high school prospects and college juniors who’d typically sign after the 10th round — those players regularly receive $100K bonuses, so the proposed $10K limit would have a far greater impact on their decisions.
Changes to the draft have seemed inevitable for some time now. The event was moved to Omaha in hopes that it would coincide with the College World Series, but the COVID-19 pandemic has wiped out the College World Series and the college and high school baseball seasons across North America. Prospects who command six- and seven-figure bonuses won’t played in front of scouts in months by the time the draft rolls around, and owners have expressed hesitance about paying out the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of combined signing bonuses at a time when the revenue streams of their respective clubs have effectively dried up.
The draft is one of many, many elements being negotiated between the league and the union, with other key points of interest including player salaries, service time, a delayed/altered schedule and the likely expansion of rosters as teams hopefully resume play at some point later this year. Of course, MLB and the MLBPA are also discussing the manner in which they’d be forced to proceed in the event that the 2020 season has to be canceled entirely. The two sides have been exchanging proposals for weeks, and all indications have been that they’re working toward an agreement but still hammering out the specifics of the arrangement.
Rookie Radar: NL West
MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has already run through the American League Central and the American League West in previewing some of the interesting young talent that could surface in the Majors this season. We’ll tackle the NL West next — a particularly interesting division given the enviable bevy of young talent that has been cultivated by both the Dodgers and Padres. Los Angeles and San Diego have two of the game’s best systems, but there are varying degrees of high-end talent bubbling to the surface for all five NL West clubs…
Arizona Diamondbacks
Jon Duplantier is a former top 100 prospect whose debut effort in 2019 was slowed by shoulder troubles. He notched a 4.42 ERA and 34-to-18 K/BB ratio in 36 2/3 innings when on the roster, though he was optioned to Triple-A five times. There’s no room in Arizona’s rotation at the moment, but Duplantier and his career 2.54 minor league ERA with 10.5 K/9 will be one of the first lines of defense should a need arise. Righty Kevin Ginkel also got his feet wet in the big leagues and, after posting a 1.48 ERA and a 28-to-9 K/BB ratio in 24 1/3 innings of relief, should have the inside track on a bullpen spot whenever play resumes.
Elsewhere in the D-backs’ system loom catcher Daulton Varsho, infielder Andy Young, first baseman Seth Beer and right-hander J.B. Bukauskas. Varsho is a homegrown talent who’s considered to be among baseball’s 100 best prospects, although the presence of Carson Kelly in the big leagues puts a roadblock in his path to Phoenix. He’s yet to play above Double-A, but a big Triple-A showing and an injury to Kelly and/or Stephen Vogt could propel Varsho to the bigs.
Young, Bukauskas and Beer were all acquired in trades — Young alongside Weaver and Kelly in the Paul Goldschmidt swap and the others in the Zack Greinke blockbuster. Arizona’s infield is stacked at the moment, but Young can play anywhere in the infield, so he’s a nice depth piece … who happened to bash 21 homers and slug .611 in 277 Triple-A plate appearances last year. Beer showed big pop of his own in a pitcher-friendly Double-A setting last season. Bukauskas will be looking for a rebound after a poor showing in Double-A.
Colorado Rockies
Rox fans have been waiting since 2015 to get a good look at Brendan Rodgers, the No. 3 overall pick in that year’s draft. Rodgers has ranked among the game’s elite prospects each season since being drafted, and he finally made his big league debut in 2019 … only to undergo shoulder surgery after all of 81 plate appearances. He might open the year in the minors, but Rodgers will be looming in the event that Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson struggle or get hut. Either way, if he’s healthy, Rodgers should force the team’s hand.
Elsewhere on the roster, expect to see Sam Hilliard play a prominent role in the outfield mix. He received a similarly sized cup of coffee to Rodgers and made the most of it, raking at a .273/.356/.649 clip. Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl are locked into two spots, but Hilliard will vie for at-bats with Raimel Tapia as Ian Desmond slips further into a reserve role. Yonathan Daza could also factor in as a bench option, depending on the health of those ahead of him on the depth chart.
Someone asked me in this week’s MLBTR chat who might step up in the event of a Nolan Arenado trade, and the club isn’t short on options — including Arenado’s own cousin, Josh Fuentes. He’s already 27, though, and had a rough showing in Triple-A this past season. More intriguing options include Tyler Nevin — yes, Phil’s son — and Colton Welker.
Southpaw Ben Bowden could emerge in the bullpen, and given the uncertainty at the back of the big league rotation — Chi Chi Gonzalez might’ve been the favorite in the fifth spot — we could see either of righty Ashton Goudeau or Antonio Santos get a look.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Gavin Lux, one of the game’s top 1o prospects, will get the opportunity to claim second base as his home for the foreseeable future. He didn’t do much in 82 MLB plate appearances last season, but if you want a laugh, check out Lux’s line in 49 Triple-A games: .392/.478/.719 with 13 home runs, 18 doubles and four triples in 232 plate appearances.
The Dodgers have an embarrassment of wealth in terms of young pitching, headlined by righty Dustin May, who’s already posted a 3.63 ERA and 32-to-5 K/BB ratio in 34 2/3 MLB frames. Fellow righty Tony Gonsolin impressed in his own ’19 debut, and the Dodgers added some triple-digit heat to the bullpen by acquiring Brusdar Graterol from the Twins. Behind that trio? Josiah Gray, acquired in the Homer Bailey salary dump with the Reds, posted a 2.28 ERA with 147 punchouts in 130 Double-A innings in ’19.
Catcher Keibert Ruiz is somewhat blocked by fellow youngster Will Smith, but he could be in line for a promotion should Smith sustain an injury. If there’s an injury (or multiple injuries) elsewhere on the roster, any of corner infielder/outfielder Edwin Rios, center fielder DJ Peters or Swiss army knife Zach McKinstry could get the call. Rios hit well in a limited debut last season, and McKinstry is cut from the Chris Taylor/Enrique Hernandez cloth, having appeared at shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots in recent seasons. (Sometimes it feels like the Dodgers grow these guys on trees.)
San Diego Padres
You won’t find many (any?) organizations with a more tantalizing pairing of pitching prospects than lefty MacKenzie Gore and righty Luis Patino. Either or both could conceivably reach the Majors in 2020. Gore is particularly touted, generally ranking inside the game’s top 10 overall prospects after posting a sub-2.00 ERA in 20 starts between Class-A Advanced and Double-A.
Center fielder Taylor Trammell still hasn’t tapped into his raw power, but his tantalizing package of tools landed him among the game’s top 100 prospects for a third straight offseason. The Padres’ outfield has turned over in a major way, and while Trammell might need a big showing in Triple-A to force the organization’s hand, he’s not far off after spending all of 2019 in Double-A.
The Padres have plenty of players with rookie eligibility who briefly saw the big leagues this past season. Righty Michel Baez and lefty Adrian Morejon aren’t quite on that same level as the Gore/Patino combo, but they were both high-profile international signings — Baez commanding a $3MM bonus and Morejon landing $11MM — and have both been top 100 entrants themselves. (Morejon still is.) Righty Ronald Bolanos also commanded a seven-figure bonus (just north of $2MM) and briefly debuted in ’19. Reliever David Bednar was sharp in Double-A and logged 11 MLB frames with San Diego, too.
If there’s a particularly intriguing prospect here, it could be Jake Cronenworth. He’s not considered a premium prospect, but the 26-year-old posted a .949 OPS in Triple-A with the Rays last year and has been developing as a two-way player. He’s more in the Michael Lorenzen mold, so he might not get two-way designation anytime soon thanks to MLB’s bizarrely stringent eligibility requirements — essentially, only Shohei Ohtani or Brendan McKay could qualify — but he brings a unique skill set to the table all the same.
San Francisco Giants
Expect Mauricio Dubon to get a long look, perhaps even in center field. The former Brewers/Red Sox middle infield prospect played there earlier in spring and could be an outfield option, depending on how the team uses Wilmer Flores and (if he makes the roster) Yolmer Sanchez. Slugger Jaylin Davis didn’t hit much in a 17-game September cameo, but he cranked 35 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A, which should get him a look on a power-starved Giants roster.
Logan Webb could end up as the team’s fifth starter — particularly now that Tyler Beede will miss the 2020 season. Webb didn’t fare well in eight MLB starts a year ago and has been hobbled by injuries since being a fourth-round pick in 2014, but he shoved with a 1.84 ERA across three minor league levels in 2019 prior to his promotion.
The big question for Giants fans is, of course, when will they get their look at Buster Posey‘s heir apparent? Joey Bart, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft, has flat-out raked at every stop and is a rare, fast-rising catching prospect. He won’t turn 24 until next offseason, but Bart is a .284/.343/.532 hitter in the minors — including a .316/.368/.554 effort in a 22-game showing at Double-A last year.
Angels Outright Taylor Cole, Option Four Players
The Angels announced a series of roster moves Wednesday, revealing that recently designated right-hander Taylor Cole cleared waivers and was assigned outright to Triple-A Salt Lake. The Halos also optioned right-hander Luke Bard, left-hander Ryan Buchter, outfielder Michael Hermosillo and first baseman Jared Walsh to Salt Lake.
Cole, 30, will technically have the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency due to the fact that he’s been previously outrighted (by the Blue Jays in 2017), but given the uncertain state of the game it’d be a surprise to see him venture into the open market. The righty posted an ugly 5.92 ERA in 51 2/3 innings with the Halos last year and doesn’t have a history of success in Triple-A (4.96 ERA in 81 2/3 innings).
That said, Cole probably wasn’t as bad as his ERA appeared; Cole was weighed down by a .366 average in balls in play and a fluky low 60.3 percent strand rate. Assuming he does indeed head to Triple-A, he’ll provide some experienced depth to an organization that has been utterly hammered by injuries to the pitching staff over the past few years.
Of the players optioned to Triple-A, Buchter is the most surprising. The former Athletics, Royals and Padres southpaw inked a minor league deal with the Angels this winter but was selected to the MLB roster on Sunday, making it seem like he’d punched his ticket to the big league roster. Instead, it appears that whenever the season does begin, he’ll bide his time in Triple-A as he waits for an MLB look. In 214 MLB innings, Buchter has a 2.86 ERA with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Bard pitched 49 innings with the Angels last year but narrowly kept his ERA under 5.00. The former second-round pick is proof that spin rate alone won’t bring about success — he led the Majors in fastball spin — and he’ll head down to Salt Lake for additional work. Hermosillo has yet to hit in the Majors and saw his production dip in a second Triple-A season last year. Walsh hit 36 home runs in 98 games with Salt Lake last year, slugging nearly .700 amid Triple-A’s own juiced ball bonanza. The 26-year-old’s output didn’t carry over to the Majors, but he received only 87 plate appearances. He’ll probably get another shot in the big leagues at some point in 2020.
Aaron Hicks Begins Throwing Program
Yankees center fielder Aaron Hicks has been cleared to begin a throwing program, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Wednesday (Twitter links via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Boone didn’t provide a further timetable on Hicks, but it’s a notable step in the 30-year-old’s recovery from last October’s Tommy John surgery.
As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne noted when looking at how the postponing of Opening Day impacts the Yankees, Hicks’ recovery timetable was expected to be eight to 10 months, which would put him in line for a return anywhere from June until August. Depending on when (or if) the season is able to commence, it’s possible that Hicks could return to the lineup without having missed much time at all.
That’d be a notable boost for the Yankees; while many have lamented the seven-year, $70MM contract signed by Hicks immediately before back injuries caused him to begin the 2019 season on the IL (and before his elbow required surgery), it’s worth remembering just how strong Hicks’ 2017-18 seasons were. During that time, he slashed .255/.368/.470 with 42 home runs, 36 doubles, three triples and 21 steals through 942 plate appearances. In the field, he totaled 4 Defensive Runs Saved, a 5.7 Ultimate Zone Rating and was at least average, per Statcast’s OAA metric.
Boone also noted that lefty James Paxton, on the mend from back surgery, is continuing a throwing program at his Wisconsin home. All appears to be well on that front — or, at least, no setback or negative updates were provided — which bodes well for an on-target return to the mound. The Yankees announced he’d be sidelined three to four months when he underwent back surgery in February.
As for right fielder Aaron Judge, Boone offered little in terms of timeline but gave what’s sure to be a frustrating update for fans when he revealed that the slugger’s collapsed lung could date all the way back to a diving attempt in the outfield last September. “It’s probably something that’s impossible to know for sure, but I would believe that it’s all interrelated,” said Boone. Judge will be re-evaluated in a “few weeks” after his cracked rib has had more time to heal, tweets Brendan Kuty of the New Jersey Star-Ledger.
Royals Select Trevor Rosenthal, Designate Eric Skoglund
The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Trevor Rosenthal and designated lefty Eric Skoglund for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
As noted here at MLBTR earlier this morning, the Royals organization has been weighing how to handle the March 26 opt-out dates that were negotiated into the minor league contracts of Rosenthal and fellow righty Greg Holland. Several other clubs have agreed to push opt-out dates back until exhibition play resumes, although in Rosenthal’s case, it seems his strong spring showing was impressive enough that Kansas City opted to add him to the roster right now rather than risk him triggering the preexisting clause.
By having his contract selected, Rosenthal will lock in a reported $2MM base salary. The Scott Boras client’s deal was also reported to come with an additional $2.25MM via performance bonuses.
Rosenthal was lights out prior to the spring shutdown, hurling five shutout innings with just three hits allowed. Most importantly, he didn’t issue a walk and punched out nine hitters. For a once-elite reliever who missed 2018 due to Tommy John surgery and saw his control completely evaporate in 2019 — 42 walks, nine hit batters in 30 1/3 innings between the big leagues and the minors — that lack of free passes was a particularly heartening development. Of course, incoming Royals skipper Mike Matheny is plenty familiar with what Rosenthal brings to the table when at his best; Matheny was Rosenthal’s skipper for the hard-throwing righty’s peak seasons in St. Louis.
Skoglund, 27, has appeared in 27 games for the Royals across the past three seasons but hasn’t found much success in the Majors. In 109 innings at the big league level, Skoglund has a 6.61 ERA with 5.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9 along the way. The southpaw was solid in his first run through the Triple-A level back in 2017 — 4.11 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 in 100 1/3 frames — but he’s struggled in his past two seasons with the Royals’ top affiliate in Omaha as well. Overall, Skoglund has a 4.87 ERA and a 151-to-46 K/BB ratio in 172 Triple-A innings.
The Royals still have a decision to make on Holland — who starred in the Kansas City bullpen during the club’s renaissance several years back. Like Rosenthal, Holland has seen his career take a turn for the worse following Tommy John surgery and that procedure’s arduous rehab process, but he’s looked solid in his own right during Cactus League play; in six innings he’s surrendered three runs but just five hits and a walk while racking up eight strikeouts.
Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ offseason featured a large number of small-scale additions — a hallmark of the current front office regime — and the richest contract in club history for the face of the franchise.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Avisail Garcia, OF: Two years, $20MM
- Josh Lindblom, RHP: Three years, $9.125MM
- Justin Smoak, 1B: One year, $5MM (includes $1MM buyout of $5.5MM club option)
- Brett Anderson, LHP: One year, $5MM
- Eric Sogard, 2B/SS: One year, $4.5MM
- Brock Holt, INF/OF: One year, $3.25MM (includes $250K buyout of $5MM club option)
- Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: One year, $2MM (includes $1MM buyout of $4.5MM club option)
- Alex Claudio, LHP: One year, $1.75MM
- David Phelps, RHP: One year, $1.5MM (includes $250K buyout of $4.5MM club option)
- Ryon Healy, 1B/3B: One year, $1MM (split contract; $250K salary in minors)
- Total spend: $53.125MM
Trades and Claims
- Traded RHP Chase Anderson to the Blue Jays in exchange for minor league 1B Chad Spanberger
- Acquired C Omar Narvaez from the Mariners in exchange for minor league RHP Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance Draft Pick (Round B)
- Acquired 2B/SS Luis Urias and LHP Eric Lauer from the Padres in exchange for OF Trent Grisham and RHP Zach Davies
- Acquired minor league INF Mark Mathias from the Indians in exchange for minor league C Andres Melendez
Option Decisions
- Declined $7.5MM club option on 1B/OF Eric Thames (Brewers paid $1MM buyout)
- 2B/3B Mike Moustakas declined his half of $11MM mutual option (Brewers paid $3MM buyout)
- C Yasmani Grandal declined his half of $16MM mutual option (Brewers paid $2.25MM buyout)
Extensions
- Christian Yelich, OF: Seven years, $188.5MM (in addition to preexisting two years, $26.5MM)
- Freddy Peralta, RHP: Five years, $15.5MM (contains two club options)
Notable Minor League Signings
- Logan Morrison, Shelby Miller, Keon Broxton, Justin Grimm, Mike Morin, Jace Peterson, Andres Blanco, Tuffy Gosewisch
Notable Losses
- Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Trent Grisham, Drew Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles, Matt Albers, Travis Shaw (non-tendered), Jimmy Nelson (non-tendered), Hernan Perez (non-tendered), Junior Guerra (non-tendered)
The 2019 Brewers reached the postseason for a second straight year, although unlike their division-winning 2018 season, last year’s group limped to the postseason and narrowly secured a Wild Card victory. Christian Yelich’s early-September knee fracture was a major blow to a club that had already lost bullpen powerhouse Corey Knebel to Tommy John surgery and watched as shoulder and elbow troubles again wiped out the season of one of its most talented pitchers (Jimmy Nelson). Milwaukee still appeared poised to advance to the NLDS before a heartbreaking eighth-inning collapse saw the eventual World Series champion Nationals erase a three-run deficit against the likes of uber-reliever Josh Hader.
That bitter pill became even harder to swallow as Brewers fans watched Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas decline their halves of their respective mutual options and sign elsewhere in free agency — Moustakas with a division rival over in Cincinnati. Those departures combined with several other Milwaukee decisions — the trade of Chase Anderson to the Blue Jays, the buyout of Eric Thames’ option and the decision to non-tender Nelson, Travis Shaw and Hernan Perez — to leave many fans with the impression that the team was scaling back and cutting payroll.
In some ways, those concerns proved to be true. The Brewers’ payroll projects to drop by more than $18MM from its 2019 levels. Then again, Milwaukee signed more Major League free agents than any other club this winter, diversifying their risk portfolio by making small-scale investments in a slew of veteran assets. That’s been a common approach under president of baseball operations David Stearns — the Lorenzo Cain signing being a notable exception — and it’s one that has worked well to this point.
Oh… and the Brewers also doled out a franchise-record $188.5MM extension for the aforementioned Yelich. The contract will ostensibly keep Yelich in Milwaukee for the remainder of his career, giving the Brewers an MVP-caliber threat in the heart of their order for the foreseeable future. Yelich isn’t likely to remain that productive at the tail end of the deal, considering it runs through his age-36-campaign, but the contract looks to be a considerable win for the team. At a time when players like Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon are all commanding over $30MM annually, Yelich’s $26.9MM annual value looks like a relative bargain. Of course, that comment can’t be made without underscoring that Yelich was three years from reaching the open market — two guaranteed campaigns and a third-year club option — and it also seems he had a clear desire to stay in Milwaukee.
[MLBTR On YouTube: The Yelich Extension]
So, how did the Brewers do in terms of addressing the many holes on their roster entering the winter? Opinions vary. The Brewers parted with relatively little in terms of long-term value in order to acquire three years of control over Narvaez — one of the game’s better-hitting catchers. The draft pick they surrendered is a lottery ticket that could certainly sting, but Narvaez and the .277/.358/.448 slash he’s compiled over the past two seasons will go a long way toward replacing the offense lost with Grandal’s departure. Defensively, Narvaez is a considerable downgrade, but few catchers in the game can match Narvaez’s value with the bat.
The Brewers’ biggest free-agent signing didn’t even come at a position of dire “need.” With Cain, Yelich, Ryan Braun and Ben Gamel on the roster, the outfield wasn’t exactly lacking. But Milwaukee moved Trent Grisham (and solid starter Zach Davies) in an effort to find a long-term answer at shortstop, and Avisail Garcia effectively replaces him on the roster. Garcia will likely see the bulk of playing time in right field, and the Brewers clearly believe he’s closer to the 2017 and 2019 versions of himself than the 2018 iteration that struggled across the board. He is deceptively fast and makes plenty of hard contact, but he’s been an inconsistent all-around performer.
Speaking of that Grisham/Davies trade, the Brewers managed to parlay a big year in the minors from Grisham into the acquisition of a prospect who one year ago was considered to be one of baseball’s premier minor league infielders. Luis Urias hasn’t hit in the big leagues yet, and the manner in which the Padres continued to acquire veteran options to play ahead of him perhaps suggests that they were never as high on him as prospect rankings seemed to be. Urias is still only 22 and has crushed Triple-A pitching (.305/.403/.511 in 867 plate appearances). Losing Grisham could potentially sting, but the Brewers felt more confident in their ability to capably replace an outfielder via free agency than to find a much-needed middle infielder. On the pitching side of that trade, the Brewers came away with the more controllable arm — but one that has yet to find the success Davies has enjoyed in the Majors.
Elsewhere in the infield — things are a bit of a hodgepodge. Not only did Milwaukee acquire Urias, they signed veterans Justin Smoak, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Brock Holt and Ryon Healy. The additions put pressure on incumbent shortstop Orlando Arcia to finally tap into the potential that made him an elite prospect several years ago. That collection of veterans will surround second baseman Keston Hiura and, occasionally, Braun (when he plays first base). Smoak adds some thump and quality glovework at first base. Gyorko, Sogard and Holt can play all over, adding the type of versatility that the Brewers have emphasized in recent seasons. Sogard and Holt, in particular, offer plus defense at multiple positions.
The pitching staff lost a glut of arms — Davies, Chase Anderson, Drew Pomeranz, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles and Junior Guerra — from a team that graded in the middle of the pack across the board. Milwaukee starters and relievers both ranked between 13th and 18th in terms of ERA and FIP. Clearly, some help was needed, but while many fans pined for a major splash, the Stearns regime has never demonstrated a willingness to sign a pitcher to a lucrative, long-term deal. The two-year, $15MM contract inked by Jhoulys Chacin two winters ago is the most expensive contract given to a pitcher by this iteration of the front office, and the three-year, $9.125MM deal given to wildcard Josh Lindblom this winter is the longest contract to which Stearns has ever signed a free-agent starting pitcher.
The Lindblom deal was the first and most interesting of several smaller-scale additions to the Milwaukee staff. The 32-year-old Lindblom was a second-round pick of the Dodgers back in 2005 but never solidified himself in the big leagues. Stints with Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Texas, Oakland and Pittsburgh didn’t pan out, and Lindblom went to South Korea on multiple occasions to pitch in the KBO.
As I detailed at greater length early in the offseason, Lindblom dove headfirst into a more analytical approach to pitching in his most recent KBO tenure and overhauled his pitch repertoire, adopting a splitter that proved to be a knockout offering. He won consecutive Choi Dong-won Awards — South Korea’s Cy Young equivalent — in 2018-19 and was named the KBO MVP this past season. Lindblom isn’t overpowering in terms of velocity and will turn 33 this June, but he’s posted highly appealing strikeout rates, control, spin rates and exit velocities in Korea.
Veteran ground-ball savant Brett Anderson represents the only other rotation addition for the Brewers, who’ll rely on a combination of Brandon Woodruff, Anderson, Adrian Houser, Lindblom, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes to start games early on. As explored early in camp, it’s a group that’s light on name recognition — Anderson excluded — but one with a good bit of upside. The Brewers will also surely leverage some openers and generally unorthodox deployments of their pitchers. Few teams play matchups and shuffle the deck with their pitching staff as much as Milwaukee. It’s a strategy that regularly draws criticism from onlookers — but one that has produced generally favorable results in recent years.
In the ‘pen, the Brewers brought back Alex Claudio on a low-cost one-year deal and inked righty David Phelps to an even more affordable pact that comes with a 2020 option. The 28-year-old Claudio has been clobbered by right-handed hitters in his career, making his return a bit curious given the impending three-batter minimum. He’ll surely still be deployed against lefties as often as possible, but an increase in disadvantageous matchups against righties feels almost inevitable. Phelps, meanwhile, will hope to bounce back to his pre-Tommy John form, when he looked to be emerging as a high-end setup piece between Seattle and Miami (142 1/3 innings, 2.72 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9).
Corey Knebel’s return could be the biggest upgrade for the Brewers’ bullpen, though. The 28-year-old was on par with Josh Hader in terms of bullpen dominance in 2017, when he posted a 1.76 ERA in 76 2/3 innings with just under 15 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2019 season, but pairing a healthy Knebel with Hader would create a dominant one-two punch at the back of games. Some combination of Phelps, Claudio, Brent Suter, whichever of Peralta or Burnes isn’t starting games and perhaps the flamethrowing Ray Black could create a quality all-around unit.
Speaking of Peralta, his own extension is certainly worth highlighting. The young righty’s five-year, $15.5MM deal carries minimal downside for the club and comes with enormous potential for surplus value, particularly when considering a pair of club options that would total an eminently reasonable $14MM. It’s the sort of deal that makes agents cringe — Peralta himself even acknowledged that his own representatives advised against the deal — but it’s also hard to see how a 23-year-old who is still more potential than production would find it impossible to say no to that type of life-changing payday. Whether he’s in the ‘pen or rotation, Peralta should be able to easily justify the investment with even moderate productivity. For a typically low- to medium-payroll club that just went beyond its traditional comfort zone to extend the face of the franchise, the potential cost efficiency such a contract creates is vital.
2020 Season Outlook
Questions about the Brewers’ pitching staff abound, but that’s nothing new for Stearns, manager Craig Counsell and the rest of the organization’s top decision-makers. Woodruff has demonstrated top-of-the-rotation potential, and Anderson has generally been a quality rotation stabilizer when healthy (which, admittedly, has been sporadic). There’s reason to dream on any of Houser, Lindblom, Peralta, Burnes or Lauer as a quality mid-rotation piece.
On the offensive side of things, it’s similarly difficult to forecast how things will play out. Milwaukee was a middle-of-the-road club in terms of total runs scored and wRC+ in 2019, and they’re losing both Grandal and Moustakas. At the same time, they’ll subtract an unthinkably poor chunk of at-bats from Travis Shaw, whose abrupt downturn at the plate caught everyone by surprise. Narvaez himself brings a pretty nice bat to the equation, and Garcia adds some production and upside to the mix. Smoak has plenty of power and a steady glove. It’s easy to see the infield as a strong group if things break right, but there’s readily apparent risk in relying on a group of options that has demonstrated such high levels of volatility in recent seasons.
The Brewers arguably have a wider range of plausible outcomes for their 2020 season than any club in the National League. That’s to be expected for a team whose offseason consisted on short-term, relatively low-AAV bets on what amounts to nearly half its roster. It’s a bulk approach to offseason acquisition the likes of which we haven’t seen in recent years, but perhaps one that was necessary for a team with minimal upper-level depth in the minors after depleting the farm via trades in recent years.
How would you grade the Brewers’ 2020 offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)
How would you grade the Brewers' offseason?
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B 44% (1,084)
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C 33% (810)
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A 10% (250)
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D 9% (228)
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F 3% (70)
Total votes: 2,442
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
How The Delayed Season Impacts The Phillies
Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne took a look at how the delayed start of the 2020 season will impact the Yankees. We’ll be running out a look at how all 30 clubs will be impacted in the days and weeks to come. And since we’ve already tackled the Phillies’ Offseason in Review, let’s now turn to how this will impact their roster choices down the road.
First and foremost, left fielder Andrew McCutchen should have ample time to rehabilitate his knee. The 33-year-old tore his left ACL last year and was expected to be ready to join the Phillies’ lineup at some point in April. With the season pushed back until at least May 10 — quite likely longer than that — McCutchen should be good to go for the year’s first game, barring any sort of setback.
He may not be the MVP-caliber talent he once was, but McCutchen was an important part of the Philadelphia lineup all the same. In 59 games and 292 plate appearances, he posted a .256/.378/.457 batting line with 10 homers, 12 doubles and a triple. Cutch’s career-best 16.4 percent walk rate and sky-high OBP were badly missed on a team that posted a pedestrian .319 OBP on the whole. That mark tied them for 19th in MLB, and McCutchen’s primary replacement, Jay Bruce, had the fourth-worst OBP in the Majors at .261 (min. 300 plate appearances).
McCutchen’s likely inclusion on the Opening Day roster should impact the bench mix as well. His presence would push Bruce into a more limited role and likely mean that one of Nick Williams or Roman Quinn misses out on the 26-man roster. Given that Williams has a minor league option remaining and Quinn does not, it seems likeliest that Williams would be the odd man out. The Phils have explored trading Williams in the past, and one would imagine that with a full-strength outfield that possibility would be a bit likelier.
The composition of the bench is of extra note given the abnormally large slate of non-roster players in camp hoping to secure a backup job with the Phillies; Josh Harrison, Phil Gosselin, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe and Ronald Torreyes are among the slew of infielders Philadelphia inked to minor league pacts this winter.
On the pitching side of things, the projected delay ought to give right-hander Tommy Hunter time to ramp up. He’s on the mend from 2019 elbow surgery and was expected to miss the first month of the year prior to the shutdown. Hunter’s health is far from a given after he missed nearly all of last year with a forearm injury, which is why he took a one-year, make-good deal that only promises him an $850K base salary. But when healthy, Hunter has turned in 69 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with the Phillies. Considering the overwhelming number of injuries that left the Philly bullpen in a state of disrepair a year ago, any healthy contributions from the veteran Hunter will be a most welcome addition.
As is the case with the bench, the Phillies have a deluge of veterans competing for bullpen jobs on non-roster deals. Francisco Liriano, Drew Storen, Bud Norris, Anthony Swarzak and Blake Parker were all invited to camp. A healthy Hunter leaves one less spot to win.
Things are less certain for two other relievers: Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson. The former underwent an MRI after experiencing a setback in his recovery from last summer’s elbow troubles and acknowledged significant concern. With a poor enough diagnosis, he could miss the entire 2020 season regardless, but if non-surgical treatment is recommended, the delay could buy him time to rehab. Robertson, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery last August. The club’s hope had been that the right-hander could return in the season’s second half, and if the season doesn’t get underway until the summer, he’d theoretically be available for a greater portion of the year.
Perhaps the most interesting scenario is what the implications could be for the rotation. As Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer explored over the weekend, the delayed start to the season lessens the need for the Phillies to monitor the workload of prized pitching prospect Spencer Howard. Considered one of the game’s 40 best prospects by each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, Howard totaled just 99 1/3 innings between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League in 2019.
General manager Matt Klentak has previously spoken about the need to make sure he has enough innings left in his arm to contribute down the stretch, and a shorter season should reduce his workload overall. That could also afford Howard fewer innings to develop in Double-A and Triple-A, but Howard ripped through Class-A Advanced en route to a Double-A promotion and found similar success there in 2019 (2.35 ERA, 38-to-9 K/BB ratio in 30 2/3 innings). He’ll surely open the season in the minors, but a similarly aggressive ascension in 2020 shouldn’t be ruled out.
Howard’s timeline to the big leagues will directly impact the bullpen composition and perhaps the very future in the organization for once-touted righties Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta. Both have a minor league option remaining, and it’s possible that both could yet emerge as viable pieces in the ‘pen (or that injuries elsewhere in the rotation will keep one or both in a starting role). Howard’s emergence as a top-half-of-the-rotation complement to Aaron Nola is a best-case scenario for the organization as a whole, but that could still have a significant individual impact on pitchers like Pivetta, Velasquez, Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin, Enyel De Los Santos and JoJo Romero.