Pirates To Exercise Chris Archer’s 2020 Option
The Pirates will pick up right-hander Chris Archer‘s $9MM club option for the 2020 season, Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. Pittsburgh could have paid Archer a $1.75MM buyout but will now have him locked in for the upcoming season. His contract also contains an $11MM option (with a $250K buyout) for the 2021 campaign.
Archer, 31, simply hasn’t panned out as hoped in Pittsburgh. The Buccos shipped prospects Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay in order to acquire three and a half cost-controlled seasons of Archer in what now looks like one of the more regrettable deals in recent memory. Both Glasnow and Meadows have flourished with the Rays, while Archer has given the Pirates a combined 172 innings of 4.92 ERA ball in his season and a half wearing black and yellow.
Archer was long seen as a pitcher with some yet-untapped upside, and the friendly nature of his contract surely made him all the more appealing for recently fired general manager Neal Huntington and a Pirates front office that is regularly working under some of the game’s tightest payroll restrictions. Whether the Bucs would’ve been so motivated to acquire Archer with more financial support from ownership can’t be known — just as it’s impossible to tell whether Glasnow and/or Meadows would’ve broken out to the same extent in Pittsburgh as they did in St. Petersburg. The bottom-line result, however, is a trade that has paid major dividends for the Tampa Bay organization but not for Pittsburgh. The ill-fated swap surely contributed to owner Bob Nutting’s recent organizational shakeup, which saw Huntington dismissed and assistant GM Kevan Graves tabbed as interim general manager.
The Pirates initially pushed Archer to dust off a two-seam fastball that he’d shelved years ago with the Rays, and the results weren’t pretty. The right-hander eventually scrapped that pitch over the summer and returned to a four-seam-heavy approach with his heater, though the results weren’t exactly encouraging. Archer pitched to a 4.65 ERA in 12 starts (60 innings) after ditching that pitch, although his strikeout rate (31.4 percent) and swinging-strike rate (13.6 percent) upon changing his pitch selection were markedly better than they were with the two-seamer. A shoulder injury, however, halted Archer’s season in late August.
Given his average velocity in that time (94.4 mph) and those encouraging swinging-strike trends, Archer could yet appeal to clubs who hope to coax better results out of the right-hander. Moving him now would clearly be selling low and would net a much lesser return than what the Pirates initially surrendered, but trade options for contenders seeking rotation help this winter are limited. If the Bucs opt to hold onto him in hopes of building some value in the season’s first half, Archer would likely emerge as a trade candidate next summer, so long as he proves healthy.
Van Wagenen: Mets Will Make Qualifying Offer To Zack Wheeler
The Mets will extend a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer to right-hander Zack Wheeler before today’s 5pm ET deadline, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen announced at today’s press conference to introduce new manager Carlos Beltran (h/t: Joel Sherman of the New York Post, on Twitter).
That’s been the expected outcome for several months now, and Wheeler is widely expected to reject the offer in search of a more lucrative deal in free agency. If and when Wheeler does sign a new contract elsewhere, the Mets will be entitled to a compensatory pick in the 2020 draft.
Wheeler, 29, should have little trouble trouncing that $17.8MM, one-year offer in free agency. The market features a pair of clear-cut No. 1 starters in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but Wheeler is very arguably the No. 3 free-agent arm of the winter and will likely be treated as such by several teams. As laid out recently by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne, Wheeler is the second-hardest-throwing starter on the market (trailing only Cole), and no free-agent starter limited hard contact better than Wheeler in 2019. He also ranks in the top 10 among free agents in terms of highest strikeout percentage and lowest walk percentage.
While some may point to Wheeler’s 3.96 ERA in 2019 and zero in too heavily on that figure, his overall body of work over the past two seasons is largely excellent. In his past 55 Major League starts, Wheeler has pitched to a collective 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate. He’s done so while playing in front of a porous defense that ranks 29th among MLB teams with a ghastly -169 Defensive Runs Saved across the past two seasons.
Qualifying offer notwithstanding, it’d be a surprise to see Wheeler command anything less than a strong three-year deal, and even that’s a rather cautious and conservative outlook. The demand for pitching among contenders will be strong, and Wheeler is trending up at a time when the trade market offers virtually nothing in terms of top-tier arms. For clubs looking to add a starter with front-of-the-rotation upside but unwilling to approach the $30MM+ annual salaries that Cole and Strasburg will likely command, Wheeler and lefty Madison Bumgarner are the next-best options.
Braves, Tyler Flowers Agree To New Deal
The Braves have agreed to re-sign catcher Tyler Flowers after paying a $2MM buyout on his $6MM club option, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports (on Twitter). Declining Flowers’ option was a purely on-paper move, as he’ll be brought back on a $4MM deal for the upcoming season. It’s a strange technicality, to be sure, particularly since the Braves don’t figure to approach the luxury tax threshold in 2020. But the restructuring of the deal now means that only $4MM of Flowers’ salary counts against the 2020 payroll — as opposed to the $6MM that would’ve counted had Atlanta simply exercised his option.
Flowers, 34 in January, didn’t have his best season at the plate but remains a highly regarded pitch framer. And while his .229/.319/.413 batting line checked in at 12 to 14 percent below that of a league-average hitter, per metrics like wRC+ (88) and OPS+ (86), it was still better than that of the league-average catcher (85 wRC+). The Atlanta organization will surely be on the lookout for catching help this offseason — their other catcher in 2019, Brian McCann, already announced his retirement — but having Flowers on hand as a quality, framing-oriented backup with some pop in his bat makes plenty of sense given the affordable nature of the contract.
Looking to other defensive components behind the plate, Flowers had his share of struggles. His 16 passed balls allowed led the league, so it’s no surprise to see that he rated near the bottom of the league in terms of pitch blocking over at Baseball Prospectus. His 19 percent caught-stealing rate was also a ways below the 26 percent league average. All that said, however, Flowers’ elite framing ranked fourth in the game, per Baseball Prospectus, who rated him as the game’s ninth-most-valuable defender in spite of those blocking and throwing woes. Flowers also drew a positive mark with four Defensive Runs Saved — his ninth straight season with a positive DRS rating.
Kenley Jansen Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause
Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.
Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.
The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.
Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.
Marlins Offer Coaching Position To Hensley Meulens
Nov. 4: The Marlins have made Meulens a formal offer to join their 2020 staff, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. Meulens, however, has received interest from multiple clubs since being eliminated from the Giants’ managerial search, per Morosi, so it seems he could yet have a decision on his hands.
Nov. 1: The Marlins are in talks with current Giants bench coach Hensley Meulens about a role on their staff in 2020, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Meulens has been told he’s not a finalist in San Francisco’s search for a new manager, per the report, and it seems there’s now a chance the organization will lose him entirely. SiriusXM’s Craig Mish adds that Meulens would likely step into the role of hitting coach if the two sides do work out a deal. He’d pair with bench coach and “offensive coordinator” James Rowson, recently hired away from the Twins, to work on reshaping the organization’s approach at the plate.
Meulens, 52, has spent the past decade on the Giants’ coaching staff under the recently retired Bruce Bochy. He’s been bench coach for the past couple of seasons but previously served as the club’s hitting coach and is also responsible for outfield defense and positioning instruction. Meulens was the Giants’ hitting coach for each of their three World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. He also has five years of experience as a minor league hitting coach and served as the manager for Team Netherlands in both the 2013 and 2017 World Baseball Classics.
A native of Willemstad, Curacao, Meulens would bring an important bilingual presence to a Marlins club that has a number of key players from Venezuela, Colombia, the Dominican Republic and Cuba both on the big league roster and rising through a rapidly improving farm system. Meulens played parts of seven seasons in the Majors — teaming with recently extended Marlins manager Don Mattingly as a Yankee from 1989-93 — and also played professionally in Japan (1994-96), Korea (2000) and Mexico (2001-02).
Players Electing Free Agency: 11/4/19
With every team throughout MLB in roster maintenance mode now that the offseason is underway, there’s a steady stream of players being jettisoned from 40-man rosters via outright waivers. Players who’ve previously cleared waivers and been outrighted at least once before have the option to elect free agency upon clearing a second time, as does any player who has at least three years of MLB service. We’ll track today’s slate of players opting for the open market in light of previously announced outrights here…
- First baseman/outfielder Tyler Austin elected to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment from the Brewers, per the Pacific Coast League’s transactions log. Austin, who turned 28 in September, only took 27 plate appearances in his brief tenure with the Brewers. He split the 2019 season between Minnesota, San Francisco and Milwaukee, batting a combined .188/.296/.409 with nine long balls in 179 trips to the plate. Austin possesses significant power (career .232 ISO) but has struck out in 36.9 percent of his career plate appearances — leading to glaring on-base issues. He could, however, be a useful platoon option at first base, given the right-handed hitter’s career .253/.345/.539 batting line against left-handed opponents. Austin was outrighted last week and would’ve been eligible for arbitration had he remained with the club.
- Blue Jays lefty Buddy Boshers opted for free agency after clearing outright waivers, per the International League transactions page. Boshers, 31, pitched 20 innings out of the Toronto bullpen and logged a 4.05 ERA (4.21 FIP) with a 26-to-10 K/BB ratio. The southpaw has been solid but not overpowering against lefties in parts of four MLB seasons, holding same-handed opponents to a .247/.295/.371 batting line through 200 plate appearances. Right-handers have had an easier go against him, hitting at a .261/.335/.442 pace through 259 plate appearances.
Mets Reportedly Narrow Managerial Search
The Mets’ managerial search is down to two names, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Former Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran and former Astros bench coach/current ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez are the last two men standing. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman recently tweeted that Milwaukee bench coach Pat Murphy was out of the running, though Heyman suggested shortly before Feinsand that Twins bench coach Derek Shelton was still involved alongside Beltran and Perez.
Neither Beltran nor Perez has any big league managerial experience, but Perez did manage a pair of winter ball clubs in Puerto Rico and managed Team Colombia in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. In addition to a brief stint as the bench coach in Houston, Perez spent a pair of seasons as the Marlins’ hitting coach earlier this decade. Beltran, who only retired as a player after the 2017 season, has spent his short post-playing days as a special advisor to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.
Hiring Perez would, in many ways, mimic the crosstown Yankees’ hiring of Aaron Boone and the Cubs’ recent hiring of David Ross. Both were retired players hired away from ESPN jobs, though Perez, unlike that duo, does have the aforementioned coaching/managing experience. Beltran, notably, would jump from player to manager even more quickly than Ross did — if he is indeed hired. Ross retired after winning a World Series in 2016, while Beltran retired after winning a World Series in 2017. Perez was reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last week to be the “clear front-runner,” but the search then carried on into a third round of interviews.
The Mets’ managerial search has dragged out even longer than the GM search that led the organization to hire then-CAA-agent Brodie Van Wagenen late last October. While a whopping eight teams entered the offseason in search of a new skipper, most identified a smaller set of initial candidates than New York. The Mets, meanwhile, not only conducted first-round interviews with a wide slate of candidates, they also carried a significant list of hopefuls all the way into a third round of interviews. (Most other organizations seemingly only went through two rounds.) At least five candidates — Perez, Beltran, Shelton, Murphy and Nats first base coach Tim Bogar — seemingly advanced to this stage.
The Mets, Pirates and Giants are the three remaining clubs that have yet to name a manager for the 2020 season. The Angels (Joe Maddon), Phillies (Joe Girardi), Cubs (Ross), Royals (Mike Matheny) and Padres (Jayce Tingler) have all hired new skippers since the regular season ended.
Rockies Name Darryl Scott Bullpen Coach
The Rockies announced a change in the coaching ranks Friday, promoting minor league pitching coordinator Darryl Scott to the role of bullpen coach. He’ll take the spot of now-former bullpen coach Darren Holmes.
The 51-year-old Scott has been with the Rockies organization for over a decade, serving as a pitching coach for four different minor league affiliates in addition to spending the three prior seasons as a pitching coordinator. Scott pitched in one big league season, tossing 20 innings for the 1993 Angels, and spent parts of 11 seasons as a reliever in the minor leagues (from 1990-2000). Double-A pitching coach Steve Merriman is stepping up to take on Scott’s former responsibilities.
Holmes, 53, had spent the previous five seasons as the Rockies’ bullpen coach. Five of his 13 Major League seasons as a pitcher came with the Rox from 1993-97, during which time he pitched to a 4.42 ERA and collected 46 saves as a reliever.
Chapman Hopes For Extension With Yankees, Will Otherwise Exercise Opt-Out Clause
Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is pursuing an extension but otherwise plans to utilize the opt-out clause in his five-year contract, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). A decision on that opt-out provision is due tomorrow, leaving his representatives at Magnus Sports with a small window to work out a new deal. (Although, presumably, the two sides have already been in contact well before today’s report.)
Chapman, 32 in February, has two years and $30MM remaining on the five-year, $86MM pact he inked prior to the 2017 season. In the event that an extension isn’t reached, the Yankees will surely issue him a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which he’ll reject in order to head into free agency. (That much is evident based on logic and common sense; if Chapman is to walk away from $30MM over the next two seasons, he’d certainly decline less than that on a one-year term even if it included a relatively small bump in terms of yearly salary.)
At 32, another five-year deal for Chapman won’t be there in free agency. Realistically, a three-year deal seems like the most plausible outcome whether it manifests with the Yankees tacking an extra year onto his current deal (as they did with CC Sabathia several years ago) or via an open-market agreement. Chapman’s $86MM guarantee is still a record among relief pitchers, but he’d have the opportunity to set another new record on the open market by taking aim at Wade Davis‘ precedent-setting annual salary ($17.33MM). Anything north of $52MM over a three-year term — or even something like $36MM over a two-year term — would give Chapman the relief pitcher records in both total guarantee and AAV.
Chapman’s on-field performance in 2019 was arguably the best of any of his three full seasons under his current deal. He tossed 57 innings — his most since signing — and worked to a pristine 2.21 ERA with averages of 13.4 strikeouts, 4.0 walks and just 0.47 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. That home-run rate is particularly impressive given his hitter-friendly home parks (and several others in the AL East) as well as the league-wide homer spike with this year’s superball. Chapman racked up 37 saves in 2019, marking his seventh 30-save season in the past eight years.
It’s true that Chapman doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. But while he’s no longer averaging 100.4 mph on his heater, this season’s 98.4 mph average still ranked as the sixth-highest among the 458 relievers who tossed at least 10 innings. In all, he’s given the Yankees 158 2/3 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with 91 saves, 14.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over the first three years of the deal (including two All-Star nods). He’s added on another 16 1/3 innings of 1.65 ERA ball with a 29-to-7 K/BB ratio in the postseason, though this year’s final impression — a series-ending, walk-off homer to Jose Altuve — wasn’t a favorable note on which to end that otherwise strong run.
Some may point to Craig Kimbrel as evidence that Chapman should be wary of venturing into free agency as a reliever with a qualifying offer attached to his name, but Kimbrel should rather serve as a lesson in the importance of managing expectations. If Chapman goes to market seeking a record-setting guarantee over five or six years, as Kimbrel apparently did, then he’ll indeed have his share of troubles. If he’s seeking out a more palatable four- or three-year pact, he could have an easier time, as was the case with the aforementioned Davis two winters ago when he signed his own record deal in Colorado. Even Kimbrel himself ultimately landed a strong three-year deal worth a prorated $43MM when he ultimately did put pen to paper.
Indians Exercise Kluber’s Option, Decline Options On Kipnis, Otero
TODAY: The moves are now official, as per the Associated Press. Kluber’s option was exercised, while the Indians bought out Kipnis and Otero.
OCTOBER 2: Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti announced at the beginning of today’s meeting with the media that the team intends to exercise its $17.5MM club option on right-hander Corey Kluber (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). The Indians are planning to decline their $16.5MM option on second baseman Jason Kipnis in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, however, and they’ll also decline righty Dan Otero‘s $1.5MM option in favor of a $100K buyout.
Although the 2019 season was a disaster for Kluber, it was never plausible that the Indians would move on from the two-time AL Cy Young winner. Kluber’s 2019 season was truncated by a forearm fracture suffered when a comeback line-drive struck him back in May. He missed nearly three months of the season and, when he was nearing a return, sustained an oblique injury that ultimately ended his year.
Even when healthy, Kluber turned in an alarming 5.80 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. However, he was plagued by a lofty .370 average on balls in play and a low 63.8 percent strand rate (career 74.7 percent), both of which seemed due for regression. His average fastball velocity was down a bit from his 2018 totals, but a look at Kluber’s readings through the beginning of May in 2018 reveals a 91.7 mph average fastball that aligns with his 91.6 mph average in 2019. Put another way: there was minimal evidence to suggest that Kluber is suddenly on a decline of this magnitude just one year after his fourth Top 3 Cy Young finish in five seasons.
Perhaps if he’d been due to become a free agent after the 2020 season, the organization would’ve given slightly more consideration to moving on (doubtful), but Kluber’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2021 season. The Indians have been working to pare back their payroll since the beginning of last offseason, but there’s no realistic scenario in which they shy away from a $16.5MM decision on Kluber — he’d have been owed a $1MM buyout regardless — that comes with a similarly priced option for an additional season.
In the case of Kipnis, the decision was similarly straightforward. Although he briefly ranked among the game’s best second baseman, the now-32-year-old Kipnis (33 on April 3) hasn’t had an above-average season at the plate since 2016. Over his past 1485 plate appearances, he’s managed just a .236/.305/.403 batting line (86 OPS+). Add in the fact that his season ended with a fractured hamate bone that required surgical repair, and Kipnis surely saw the writing on the wall.
Lewis tweets that the team is still open to a reunion with Kipnis at a lower price, but that will depend on the level of interest expressed by other teams. Given the number of second base alternatives both in free agency and on the trade market, it’s quite possible that Kipnis will eventually have to settle for a one-year deal, so perhaps a reunion shouldn’t be ruled out. Kipnis does have a bit of experience in the outfield, which could enhance his appeal to new clubs, but he’s graded out poorly in his limited work away from second base.
It’s similarly unsurprising to see the team move on from Otero, despite the affordable nature of his option. He’ll turn 35 this February and has seen a sharp decline of his own since a brilliant run in 2016-17. Otero gave the Indians 130 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 95-to-19 K/BB ratio and only eight homers allowed in that ’16-’17 peak, but he’s been rocked for a 5.09 ERA with 18 home runs in 88 1/3 innings since that time. Otero still possesses superlative control, as he’s averaged less than one walk per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons, but he’s also seen his sinker dip to an average if 89.5 mph.
As far as the coaching staff is concerned, manager Terry Francona announced that the team has dismissed bullpen coach Scott Atchison but will retain the rest of his staff for the 2020 season (Twitter link via Zack Meisel of The Athletic).