Amid the Pirates’ awful start to the season and decision to fire manager Derek Shelton, there’s been some speculation on the possibility of the Bucs blowing things up and again refocusing on building up the farm system. Specifically, many fans have begun to wonder about the possibility of the Pirates dangling the final four and a half seasons of control over reigning NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young finalist Paul Skenes. Unsurprisingly, there’s no real chances of that happening in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post spoke to an unnamed Pirates executive who flatly told him, “No way, no chance, no how,” when the possibility of a Skenes trade was broached.

Any and all talk of a possible Skenes swap has been little more than wishful thinking from fans of other clubs. Much of the rumbling stems from ESPN’s Jeff Passan recent appearance on the Pat McAfee Show (video link). Passan never suggested a trade was likely or even plausible but opined that there’s at least “an argument to be made” that it’d be the right call, given the team’s immediate fall from postseason contention, their inability to score runs, and the unlikelihood of owner Bob Nutting spending to either surround Skenes with competitive players or to extend the team’s ace. Passan rightly pointed out that there will be teams asking about Skenes at this year’s trade deadline. Interest from other clubs is a given, but a trade has never seemed like a real possibility.

Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, made his MLB debut less than one year after being selected and immediately cemented his place among baseball’s top arms. He started the All-Star Game for the NL last season, secured 23 of 30 first-place votes in NL Rookie of the Year balloting, and finished third in NL Cy Young voting. Since debuting last year on May 11, Skenes leads the majors with a 2.12 ERA. He ranks 14th in innings pitched (195 2/3), fourth in strikeout rate (30.6%), fourth in differential between his strikeout and walk rates (24.3%), third in FIP (2.54) and fourth in SIERA (2.89).

Skenes is already an ace in virtually every sense of the word. The Pirates were presumably hoping that by holding off his call to the majors until mid-May, they could strike the balance between having Skenes help improve on their 2023 win total (76) and keep him out of the big leagues long enough to prevent a Rookie of the Year win and that would grant him a full year of service regardless of his promotion date. Neither worked out. Skenes got that full year of service by virtue of his Rookie of the Year win, and the Pirates finished the 2024 season with the same 76-86 record they produced in 2023.

Because Skenes secured that full year of service, he’ll be controllable for “only” six seasons. He’s under Pirates control through the 2029 campaign. Had he missed out on the full year, that would’ve been pushed back to 2030.

If he stays healthy and continues on his current trajectory, Skenes figures to shatter records in arbitration. He’d reach arb eligibility in the 2026-27 offseason and go through the process three times before reaching free agency in the 2029-30 offseason. Barring an injury or unexpected decline, he’ll have a case for a mammoth contract in free agency — perhaps the largest signed by a pitcher. He’ll hit the open market heading into only his age-28 season.

Extending Skenes right now would already require the largest contract in Pirates history by a wide margin. Pittsburgh has never given out a contract larger than Bryan Reynolds’ seven-year, $100MM extension. Skenes would more than double that on an extension and could even triple that commitment. It’s virtually unfathomable to think Nutting would ever pay that much for a single player. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Pirates have only spent a combined $357MM in extensions dating back to 2016. They’ve spent even less in free agency; their combined free agent spending dating back to the 2011-12 offseason totals $302MM (Contract Tracker link).

Given the Pirates’ penurious spending habits, an eventual trade of Skenes feels like an inevitability — just not in the near term. Moving their ace while he’s still earning scarcely more than the league minimum simply doesn’t feel rooted in reality. One could argue that Skenes’ trade value will never be higher, and there’s some inherent truth that as he incrementally inches toward free agency, the diminishing amount of club control will impact his value. However, trading Skenes at any point when he has multiple years of control remaining would net the Pirates a monumental return — perhaps on par with or even exceeding the Nationals’ outrageous return for Juan Soto. The gap between the trade value of four years of Skenes and two years of Skenes is not as large as the gap between two years of Skenes and one year of Skenes.

As Skenes’ price tag climbs in arbitration, a trade will become more plausible. For the time being, even with the 2025 season all but lost, the Bucs understandably plan to hang onto their ace. He’s surely a draw for ticket sales and merchandise, and if the Pirates have any designs on a more competitive roster in 2026, it’s surely built around a pitching staff that can be anchored by Skenes, Mitch Keller, top prospect Bubba Chandler and a collection of talented, controllable arms that also includes Mike Burrows, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, Hunter Barco, Bailey Falter and Johan Oviedo.