Latest On The Mariners
The Mariners have money to spend and a need for offense. Yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that the team could be aggressive on free agents Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli. The latest:
- The Mariners' reported interest in Jacoby Ellsbury may be overblown, hears ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. Crasnick wrote earlier than the Ms are more immersed in the Carlos Beltran/Peralta/Kendrys Morales market than in Ellsbury's. The Mariners would like to find a way to add Cruz and Beltran, tweets Crasnick. If they are to pull that off, it could be another offseason of disregarding defense, in my opinion. Signing Cruz and Beltran requires the forfeiture of draft picks, but the Mariners' first rounder is protected. They would lose their second round pick as well as their Competitive Balance Round B pick (similar to the Indians last winter).
Qualifying Offer Decisions
13 free agents received qualifying offers a week ago, and I think they are all likely to decline by today's 4pm central time deadline. If these players sign Major League deals elsewhere, their old teams stand to gain a draft pick in each instance. The latest:
- Curtis Granderson is "100 percent" turning down the Yankees' qualifying offer, a person involved in the situation tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
- Kendrys Morales will turn down the Mariners' QO, people familiar with the situation tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
- As expected, both Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew will allow the 5pm deadline to pass without accepting qualifying offers from the Red Sox, a baseball source tells Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com (on Twitter).
- After an MRI on his hips showed no signs of further deterioration, Mike Napoli has decided to decline the Red Sox's qualifying offer, an industry source tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com.
- Starting pitcher Ervin Santana declined the Royals' qualifying offer, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- Catcher Brian McCann will decline his qualifying offer from the Braves today, tweets MLB.com's Mark Bowman. This was an easy choice for McCann, who has a good chance at a five-year contract.
- Right fielder Nelson Cruz informed the Rangers he will decline his qualifying offer, tweeted Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram earlier today.
- You can also keep track of all the qualifying offer decisions using MLBTR's free agent tracker.
Free Agent Profile: Juan Uribe
Prior to the season, there was speculation the Dodgers could release Juan Uribe, eating the $7MM remaining on his contract just to open up the roster spot after he played at replacement level from 2011-12. However, Uribe made over 100 starts for the Dodgers in 2013 and was incredibly valuable, posting the fourth-best WAR among all free agents.
Strengths/Pros
Uribe was worth 5.1 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, a number topped in 2013 by only three other free agents: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Shin-Soo Choo. No other position player even came close to Uribe, with Marlon Byrd checking in at 4.1.
How did he do it? In large part through defense. Playing mostly third base, Uribe posted a UZR/150 of 35.3 in 900 1/3 innings. Only four other players exceeded 30 this year, and their defensive excellence is uncontested: Shane Victorino, Juan Lagares, Gerardo Parra, and Manny Machado. Uribe's hot corner defense is no fluke, as he's posted strong UZR numbers there in each season since '09. Another stat, defensive runs saved from The Fielding Bible, had Uribe at 15. That figure was tied for the 15th best in baseball. The National League Gold Glove at third base went to Nolan Arenado, and rightfully so, but Uribe was one of three finalists along with David Wright. The Fielding Bible's panel of ten experts ranked Uribe's defense sixth in baseball at third base this year, behind only Arenado in the NL.
Uribe has the versatility to play all around the infield, though it's been a while since he's played anything other than third base regularly.
One reason Uribe was able to pick up 102 starts (and 132 total games) for the Dodgers this year is that he had a solid year with the bat as well. Uribe hit .278/.331/.438 in 426 plate appearances. He's always had pop, with a career isolated power mark of .167 and eight seasons of double digit home runs. He hit a career-best 24 bombs in 2010 with the Giants, leading to his contract with the Dodgers. This year, Uribe was able to hit for average while also drawing enough walks to create a solid OBP. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average. Uribe's 116 figure this year means he was 16% better than the league average hitter, and it ranked eighth among third basemen with at least 400 PAs. By this measure, Uribe had a better year with the bat than Pablo Sandoval, Chase Headley, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Martin Prado, and other starting third basemen.
Uribe made significant contributions to the 2005 White Sox and 2010 Giants, so his pair of World Series rings are well-deserved. He did not receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers this offseason, so signing him will not involve forfeiting a draft pick.
Weaknesses/Cons
Uribe was a terrible hitter from 2011-12, hitting .199/.262/.289 with six home runs in 474 plate appearances. His contract looked like a big mistake after the first two years, and he took criticism for being out of shape. Uribe endured a left hip flexor injury in May 2011, and hit the DL again in July with a similar injury. In September 2011 he had surgery for a sports hernia, giving hope for a rebound in '12 when he showed up to camp in better shape and healthy again. However, he hit the DL in May for a wrist injury and was marginalized as the season wore on. Hanley Ramirez's thumb injury in March 2013 created an opportunity for Uribe to play regularly at third base. Even after a stellar 2013, no one has any idea how many useful seasons the 34-year-old Uribe has left.
Uribe posted a ridiculous 25.6% walk rate in April this year, settling in at a more Uribe-like 5.0% for the rest of the season. He also had a .322 batting average on balls in play this year, compared to a career BABIP of .282. It's reasonable to expect Uribe to draw fewer walks and have fewer hits drop in next year, pulling his OBP down toward his career .299 mark. Projections suggest Uribe may not even be a league average hitter in 2014. If he reverts to being a .200 hitter with no power, Uribe may be nothing more than a defensive replacement.
Personal
Juan and his wife Ana reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason with their four children. Juan was a second cousin of Jose Uribe, a shortstop who played in the Majors from 1984-1993 and died in a car crash in 2006. Juan was signed by Rockies scout Jorge Posada, Sr., father of the Yankees catcher, in 1997. MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez described the signing in this 2010 article.
Uribe is a big hit in the clubhouse. In 2010, Ann Killion of Sports Illustrated wrote, "Uribe is beloved, always happy, consistently upbeat." Uribe's teammates have been singing his praises for many years.
Market
The Dodgers may be open to bringing Uribe back on a one-year deal, after the first two years of their initial commitment went so poorly. Otherwise, a team with unsettled plans in the short-term at third base would make sense for Uribe, which could mean the White Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Marlins, and Phillies. I'm not sure if any teams would consider Uribe as a semi-regular second baseman, but in that case the Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Braves, and Rockies could be factors. Uribe may be best served filling an Eric Chavez type of role, in whom the Yankees, Angels, and Diamondbacks are interested according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
Uribe benefits from a weak free agent market for third basemen. He's as much of a starting third baseman as anyone else in the group.
Expected Contract
The question with Uribe: one year or two? On one hand, the bar for a two-year deal is quite low. Utility infielders and other part-time players routinely get two years, and Uribe's performance in 2013 suggests he can contribute regularly. On the other hand, Uribe's contract with the Dodgers three years ago was the first multiyear pact of his career, and the first two years went horribly. In the end, I think Uribe will get a two-year, $12MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles Intrigued By Tim Hudson
The Orioles are intrigued by free agent starter Tim Hudson and have discussed him internally, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 38-year-old righty fits the Orioles' profile, and the O's have Braves connections in recent hires Dave Wallace and Dom Chiti.
The Orioles will keep close tabs on Hudson, reports Kubatko, as he recovers from this summer's season-ending ankle surgery. Hudson, profiled by MLBTR's Steve Adams here, has already drawn interest from the Rockies, Giants, Red Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Indians, and Royals among others, plus the Braves would like to re-sign him. Yahoo's Jeff Passan has suggested a two-year, $24MM deal for Hudson, who will benefit from the smaller requirement to sign him compared to the market's younger starters, plus the lack of a qualifying offer.
The Orioles are not likely to pursue Scott Kazmir, notes Kubatko. The O's have four starters penciled in for 2014: Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, and Bud Norris. Scott Feldman and Jason Hammel are now free agents after contributing to the Orioles' rotation in 2013.
Angels Sign Wade LeBlanc
The Angels signed lefty Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal with a spring training invite, according to the team's director of communications Eric Kay. LeBlanc, 29, posted a 5.40 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, and 39.1% groundball rate for the Marlins and Astros this year in 55 innings.
LeBlanc joined the Marlins a year ago from the Padres in a swap for catcher John Baker. The Fish designated him for assignment in June, after which the Astros claimed him off waivers. The Astros designated him a few weeks later, ultimately outrighting him to Triple-A. He found his way back up, but was again designated and outrighted in August.
LeBlanc was drafted by the Padres in the second round in 2006 out of the University of Alabama. The soft-tosser once projected as a future number three starter, but will now serve as Triple-A depth for the Halos. He'll join Chris Volstad, signed by the Angels to a minor league deal last week.
Entries Due Tonight For Free Agent Prediction Contest
Dust off your crystal ball again, it's time for MLBTR's third annual free agent prediction contest! Predict destinations for our top 50 free agents, with the chance to win fantastic prizes and bragging rights over your friends and the MLBTR writing team. Last year's winner had 20 correct; can you beat that?
How To Play
- Click here to make picks for our top 50 free agents. For each player you can choose any of the 30 teams, as well as Retirement or Japan.
- A Facebook account is required to participate in this contest. You can log in with the button up top, or by using the Save Your Picks button at the bottom.
- Feel free to leave your picks incomplete for now, as long as you save them using the button at the bottom. The contest is open now and runs until 11:59pm central time tonight. Make sure to have something chosen and saved for all 50 players by the deadline, or else you will not be eligible for the contest. We suggest you save periodically after every 5-10 picks in case it times out.
- Players on our top 50 that sign before the November 10th deadline are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick. It's kind of like getting points for putting your name on the test – seems like a no-brainer, but a few people still won't do it.
- The leaderboard will rank contestants by "batting average" on correct picks, once players start signing. The leaderboard will show everyone's full names and Facebook profile picture.
Rules
- Final picks must be saved by November 10th at 11:59pm central time – no exceptions.
- MLBTR writers are not eligible for prizes.
- One entry per person, please.
- With regard to prizes, ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents. If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR's discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
- Prize winners must respond to an email message within 48 hours.
Prizes
- $1,000 in cash prizes to be distributed among the top five finishers
- 2014 Baseball America Handbook
- One-year digital subscription to Baseball America
Free Agent Profile: James Loney
James Loney was an afterthought in the August 2012 blockbuster trade that reshaped the Red Sox and Dodgers, with Boston sending Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash to Los Angeles. Loney joined various Dodgers prospects coming to the Red Sox, and soon after became a free agent for the first time. He found just a $2MM guarantee with the bargain-shopping Rays, and made good by rediscovering his hitting stroke and playing his usual strong defense at first base.
Strengths/Pros
Loney's line drive swing produced a .299 batting average this year, which ranked 13th in the American League. His solid .285 career batting average is owed largely to his high contact rate. He struck out just 12.9% of the time this year, a mark bested by only 17 AL players. Loney's 29.8% line drive rate this year topped all of MLB.
Loney's strong batting average helped him to a .348 on-base percentage this year, topping the typical first baseman's .332 mark. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average. Loney's 118 figure this year means he was 18% better than the league average hitter. Among free agents with at least 400 plate appearances, Loney's wRC+ ranked ninth among all free agents, beating out players such as Kendrys Morales, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Morneau. Loney has shown he can excel in baseball card numbers as well, averaging 89 RBI per year from 2008-10.
While Loney's sweet swing had him batting fifth in the Rays' lineup for much of the year, his calling card is his defense at first base. He was a Gold Glove finalist this year, and has continually been sought out for his defense. Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman explained Loney's positives in August to MLB.com's Bill Chastain, saying, "James has been one of the better defensive first basemen in the game for a while, and fit right in with our emphasis on defense. But he's also demonstrated good natural hitting ability, especially against right-handers, and a contact bat that adds a different dimension to our lineup. We felt that with everything he brings to the table, he had a real chance to thrive in our environment."
Durability is another strong suit for Loney — he's never been on the disabled list in a career that has spanned eight seasons. Aside from his tumultuous 2012, Loney has averaged 159 games per season since 2008.
Loney has youth on his side, as he doesn't turn 30 until May. And unlike free agent first basemen Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, Loney did not receive a qualifying offer and is not tied to draft pick compensation.
Weaknesses/Cons
Loney is underpowered for a first baseman, a drawback for those who believe the offensive standard should be higher at his position. He's continually posted isolated power marks around .130, while the average first baseman was at .176 this year. The typical first baseman can hit at least 20 home runs, while Loney is generally good for 13 or so. Loney can still add value as a hitter, but he won't appeal to teams seeking power in free agency.
Loney hit .299/.339/.390 against left-handed pitching in 166 plate appearances this year, providing hope that he will not need to be platooned. But from 2010-12, Loney was terrible against southpaws, hitting .218/.256/.299 in 425 plate appearances.
Loney had a rough 2012 in general, hitting .249/.293/.336 in 465 plate appearances. Overall, his play was below replacement level. Loney has only been worth two-plus wins above replacement twice in his career, in 2011 and '13. Otherwise, he's often been around replacement level. Though he drove in a good amount of runs from 2008-10, Loney was still just a league average offensive player, and his defense generally doesn't make up for that. The Rays seemingly rescued Casey Kotchman's career in 2011, but he was terrible in the season that followed. Fair or not, some teams might connect the two first basemen and wonder if Loney can maintain success outside of Tampa Bay.
Personal
James' parents, Ann and Marion, met when both were basketball players at SUNY Oswego. James was born in Houston and still lives in Texas with his wife Nadia and their son, born this year. James told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick in 2008 he had a hard time deciding whether to root for the Astros or Braves as a kid. When the Dodgers drafted Loney out of high school in the first round in 2002, most teams viewed him as a pitcher, wrote Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times in 2011.
Loney is known as a laid-back player. "Loney is so calm that sometimes you wonder if there's a pulse," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May. "I think he's the most unaffected guy I know," Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Hernandez in 2009. Former teammate Randy Wolf used the word "spacey," and former manager Joe Torre agreed. Giants first baseman Brandon Belt may own the nickname "Baby Giraffe," but Wolf used that term to describe Loney's awkwardness in the '09 article, and the first baseman's nickname was "Geoffrey" after the Toys R Us giraffe.
Market
Loney changed agencies around the opening of free agency, jumping from CAA to The Legacy Agency. Without knowing the details, the agency change prior to the biggest payday of Loney's career suggests dissatisfaction with his previous contract.
Several teams may be in the market for a first baseman this winter, assuming the Rays don't retain Loney. The Brewers, Pirates, Twins, and Rockies don't have clear plans at first base, though the Rockies seem to be seeking right-handed power. The Rangers could be an option if they move on from Mitch Moreland and find bigger bats elsewhere. As far as starting first basemen, Loney's competition on the free agent market consists of Mike Napoli, Corey Hart, and Justin Morneau, plus maybe Kendrys Morales, Paul Konerko, Mark Reynolds, and Kevin Youkilis.
Expected Contract
I expect Loney's agent to set out with a three-year deal in mind, since he's a relatively young player and the average annual value on the contract won't be staggering. Ultimately, I think he'll land a two-year, $16MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Boras On Ellsbury, Choo, Drew, Morales
Agent Scott Boras joined ESPN's Keith Law on his latest Behind the Dish podcast. A few highlights:
- Jacoby Ellsbury has "illustrated that he's a highly durable athlete," according to Boras. The agent explained that people running into Ellsbury, which caused his two major injuries, has nothing to do with his durability. Ellsbury is "a game-changer for a lot of franchises," as the importance of leadoff hitters has increased as power has declined. Boras says a player of Ellsbury's caliber is typically locked up by his team and does not reach free agency. I projected a seven-year, $150MM contract for Ellsbury in my recent free agent profile.
- Shin-Soo Choo is a "premium defensive outfielder at the corners," says Boras, which is further proven by him being able to handle center field for a season with the Reds.
- Seven or eight teams could "change the dynamic of the production of their infield" with shortstop Stephen Drew, in the opinion of Boras.
- Kendrys Morales' metrics at first base are above average, Boras told Law, adding, "He clearly is a good first baseman." Boras feels that pundits don't appreciate the rarity of a switch-hitter with a middle of the order bat, in this case. Morales is "the only other one really than Cano who you can say has the ability to be a run producer in the middle of the lineup" in this free agent market, says Boras, an assessment with which the agents for Brian McCann, Mike Napoli, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, and Nelson Cruz might disagree.
Non-Tender Candidates
By my count, 199 players are currently arbitration eligible and unsigned for 2014. More than 30 of those can be considered non-tender candidates. The deadline for teams to decide is December 2nd at 11pm central time. Non-tendering a player makes him a free agent. Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates. Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered. Click here for MLBTR's projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts. Click here for our non-tender tracker, and here for our arbitration tracker.
Position Players
Tony Abreu
Darwin Barney
Daric Barton
Tyler Flowers
Sam Fuld
Mat Gamel
Chris Getz
Jesus Guzman
Brett Hayes
Paul Janish
Garrett Jones
Don Kelly
Lou Marson
Michael McKenry
Chris Nelson
Jayson Nix
Justin Ruggiano
Seth Smith
Travis Snider
Chris Stewart
Drew Stubbs
Pitchers
Scott Atchison
John Axford
Andrew Bailey
Daniel Bard
Mitchell Boggs
Scott Elbert
Tommy Hanson
Frank Herrmann
Daniel Hudson
Kevin Jepsen
Cristhian Martinez
Fernando Rodriguez
Esmil Rogers
Joe Thatcher
Josh Tomlin
Jerome Williams
Blake Wood
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2014
As explained in this series of posts, Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model for MLBTR to project arbitration salaries. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. By my count there are 214 remaining arbitration eligible players. Click here to download an Excel spreadsheet with our projected salaries, or click below to see everything. For thoughts on each arbitration player, click the team name to see the associated Arbitration Eligibles post.