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Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu

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Is Jose Dariel Abreu MLB's next Cuban sensation?  Abreu, who turns 27 in January, defected from Cuba in August and is now free to sign with any team.  He has a good chance to sign the largest contract ever for a Cuban player, topping Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM deal.  Every team had some kind of scouting presence at Abreu's early October showcase, reported Baseball America's Ben Badler.  

Strengths/Pros

Abreu put up huge numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional as well as in international tournaments.  His calling card is power, prompting Athletics assistant GM David Forst to say to Grantland's Jonah Keri in February 2012, "There are legitimate comparisons to Ryan Howard."  Badler elaborated in August this year, "Abreu is a physically imposing righthanded hitter with tremendous raw power to all fields."  In an ESPN article, former GM Jim Bowden gave Abreu a 70 hit tool and 70 for power on the scouting scale, after talking to "a few execs and scouts who have seen him play."  One scout told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick Abreu has "monstrous power."  Many different reports suggest Abreu could hit 30 home runs for an MLB team right away, a level no free agent reached in 2013.  Given the scouting grade on his power, it seems possible Abreu could reach 40 in a season at some point during his contract.

Since Abreu will play in 2014 at age 27, he's younger than every significant free agent hitter.  A six-year deal could still catch a large portion of his prime, which is unlikely to be the case with any other free agent.  

If they reach the open market, many of the top free agent power bats have a good chance of requiring the sacrifice of a draft pick to sign: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann.  Abreu will not require the loss of a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

If Abreu has a few vintage Ryan Howard or David Ortiz-caliber seasons during his contract, he should easily be worth $50-60MM, and could provide an excellent return on investment.  MLB executives are drooling at the thought.  There have been some less-than-glowing reports about Abreu's overall hitting ability, however.

Abreu's bat speed was questioned in a pair of excellent reports from Badler and Crasnick, and there are multiple scouts who feel he will struggle against hard fastballs inside.  Crasnick talked to a scout who described Abreu as a less-athletic Dayan Viciedo, a player with a .264/.306/.432 line in over 1,200 big league plate appearances.  In sum, Viciedo has been about replacement level for his career.  The scout felt that Abreu has more power than Kendrys Morales, but is a worse hitter.  There are few questions about Abreu's power, but will he be able to hit for average or draw a walk?  Badler has noted that scouts and teams have extensive history watching Abreu, but based on reports, it's unclear whether they project him over or under Morales' .333 career OBP.

Reports vary on Abreu's ability to contribute beyond his bat.  One scout told Crasnick Abreu is "all bat," an Edgar Martinez type, while another felt he could be a solid first baseman.  The bar is raised for a bat-only player, and it's certainly possible to hit 25-30 home runs and still be replacement level, as Raul Ibanez did this year.  As far as young DHs go, Billy Butler has a .298/.364/.459 line in seven seasons, yet has never had a season in which he was worth three wins above replacement.  Still, if Abreu settles in as a two-win player, he'll be worth a $10MM salary.  

At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Abreu is not nearly the athlete Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes is, though Crasnick says Abreu has ramped up his conditioning of late.  He's still likely to be a negative in baserunning.  

Personal

Abreu is married and has a son, and I've heard he is a relatively quiet player who takes a professional approach to his job.  Abreu is more grounded than Puig and is considered a "good kid" in scouting circles, according to Crasnick.  Abreu's good friend Henry Urrutia, an outfielder for the Orioles, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, "He's a humble man and he comes from a rural area of hard-working people."  Abreu has a "fun-loving personality," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.

Market

The top end of the free agent market for first basemen includes Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, both of whom seem likely to come with a draft pick cost attached.  Badler talked to scouts who preferred Napoli to Abreu, but it's far from a slam dunk.  Though Abreu has been scouted extensively, I still believe some teams will be seduced by the allure of the unknown, as it's easier to dream about Abreu hitting 40 home runs than Napoli or Morales, partially because Abreu has never played in the Majors.

Unlike typical free agents, Abreu is free to sign now and already held a showcase, so rumors are plentiful.  The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, Pirates, Orioles, and Mets have been linked to Abreu to varying degrees, and Badler says the first five teams had the strongest presence at his showcase in the Dominican Republic.  Abreu's market is not limited to win-now teams, given his age.  The Marlins, in particular, are "all-in" on Abreu, wrote MLB.com's Joe Frisaro in early October.  They sent GM Dan Jennings to his showcase, and already have two of Abreu's countrymen on the roster in Jose Fernandez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Expected Contract

Predicting Abreu's contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player's goals.  Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency.  Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance.  Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I've projected a three-year, $42MM contract.  Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won't cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain.  $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu's ceiling.  Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Brewers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

When Estrada hit the DL on June 5th for a hamstring injury, he was sporting a 5.32 ERA.  A back injury cropped up as well, delaying his return until August 7th.  From that point onward, he posted a 2.15 ERA and 5.09 K/BB ratio in nine starts.  Estrada will again be a popular sleeper pick heading into next season.  For now, his salary projects to remain small, and he hasn't shown enough to justify a significant extension.

Acquired in December last year, Badenhop's 2013 peripherals were nearly a carbon copy of his '12 rates.  He remains a useful groundball pitcher, and the Brewers have him for one more year before he's eligible for free agency.

Francisco was a popular trade target after the Braves designated him for assignment in late May.  The Brewers dealt for him in early June and he hit .221/.300/.433 for them in 270 plate appearances, trailing off in the season's final month.  He was used in a strict platoon, rarely facing a left-handed pitcher while mostly playing first base.  Even just for some pop off the bench, Francisco seems worth retaining at $1.4MM.

Assuming the Brewers tender contracts to Estrada, Badenhop, and Francisco, they're looking at a projected $7MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Free Agent Profile: Josh Johnson

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Before the season began, Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson ranked third on my Free Agent Power Rankings, which serves as an example of how tantalizing his abilities can be.  He lasted four starts before hitting the DL with triceps tightness.  He returned over a month later and made another dozen starts before a forearm injury ended his season.  On October 1st, Johnson had arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies and a bone spur in his elbow, and he's expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Let's take a look at his free agent prospects after the lost season.

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Pros/Strengths

Johnson is one of the hardest-throwing free agent starters, as his average fastball velocity of 92.8 miles per hour this year was bested only by Garza.  He finished fourth in strikeouts per nine innings at 9.18.  Even in a year in which almost nothing went right, Johnson still threw hard and whiffed more than a batter per inning.

Prior to 2013, Johnson had a reputation of a pitcher who would spend some time on the DL, but would be excellent when he was on the mound.  He posted a 3.14 ERA over 904 1/3 innings from 2006-12.  During that time period, his ERA ranked sixth in all of baseball among those with at least 800 innings.  Johnson pitched like an ace for the Marlins from 2009-10, with a 2.80 ERA over 392 2/3 innings.  Only four pitchers were better.  He made the All-Star team in both seasons, and finished fifth in the 2010 NL Cy Young voting after posting a 2.30 ERA.

Given his rough 2013 campaign, Johnson is highly unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, so he won't come with a draft pick cost attached.

Johnson's recent elbow surgery could be construed as a positive, as Dr. James Andrews told the pitcher he thought the bone spurs were the cause of his struggles this year, agent Matt Sosnick told MLBTR.

Weaknesses/Cons

Johnson is a starting pitcher who tossed fewer than 1,000 innings over an eight-year span, as he's been injured a ton.  In 2006, his first full season, he was done on September 12th due to a forearm strain.  He began the '07 season on the DL with ulnar nerve irritation in his right biceps.  After beginning his season in June of that year, he made four starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in August.  His recovery was short, as he was back on a Major League mound in less than a year.

Johnson was injury-free in '09, and signed a four-year extension after that season.  Though he technically avoided the DL in his fantastic 2010 campaign, his last start came on September 4th due to shoulder inflammation and a back strain.  He hit the DL with shoulder inflammation in May 2011, and wasn't able to return from the injury that year, finishing with only nine starts.  The mostly-healthy 2009-10 seasons showed Johnson bounced back well from Tommy John surgery, but '11 reintroduced the idea that he was injury-prone.  He bounced back in 2012, avoiding the DL and making 31 starts.  Johnson didn't pitch at his previous ace level, but he re-established enough hope to be a major part of the November blockbuster with Toronto.

As mentioned in the introduction of this post, Johnson endured separate injuries in 2013 involving his triceps and elbow, culminating in surgery.  He made a lot of bad pitches, allowing 11.6 hits and 1.66 home runs per nine innings, leading to a career-worst 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings.   Even if we give him a pass for Tommy John surgery early in his career, Johnson has had three healthy seasons in the last five.  He hasn't had an ace-caliber healthy season since 2010, calling into question whether he can return to that level for 180 innings.  After 2013, his ability and durability must be questioned.  With only one 200-inning season in his career, Johnson is the polar opposite of a dependable, low-upside arm like Bronson Arroyo.

Personal

Josh is married with two children, and they reside in Las Vegas during the offseason.  He's a big golfer who plays to a 1 handicap.

Market

Sosnick told MLBTR Johnson loved playing for Blue Jays manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  The pitcher has interest in returning to the Jays.  If a reunion doesn't happen, pretty much any team could explore a deal, since the risk will be limited to one year.  The Cubs, Rays, Mets, Rangers, Pirates, Nationals, Twins, Indians, and Athletics are some teams that have shown a willingness in recent years to sign free agent starting pitcher projects.

Expected Contract

A one-year deal free of options is in the cards for Johnson, as he aims to rebuild value with a healthy 2014.  The gold standard contract for a pitcher coming off an injury is the one-year, $10MM deal Ben Sheets signed with the Athletics after missing all of 2009.  Though that contract is almost four years old, I see it as the ceiling for Johnson.  Ultimately, I predict a one-year, $8MM deal, with significant incentives in the $4-6MM range.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago White Sox

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The White Sox are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

De Aza quietly established career-highs for playing time and home runs, mainly as Chicago's center fielder.  The Sox haven't locked up an arbitration eligible position player since Alexei Ramirez after the 2010 season, but exploring an affordable multiyear deal with De Aza might make sense.  Three years and around $15MM could work, if the Sox believe the 29-year-old will continue to produce.

Beckham had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in April, returning to the Majors on June 3rd and hitting .305/.341/.419 in 180 plate appearances through July.  Talk of a breakout season was quieted when the 27-year-old went on to hit .227/.304/.335 thereafter.  Though a trade is possible for the disappointing second baseman, there's a good chance the Sox stick with him for 2014.  Beckham may be pushed by Leury Garcia and Marcus Semien next year, but could also become more important if shortstop Alexei Ramirez is dealt.

Viciedo is in a similar spot after a disappointing oblique strain-shortened season.  Unlike Beckham, he finished strong with a .291/.333/.470 line over the season's final three months.  He's probably penciled in to begin next year as the starting left fielder.  Our salary projection model didn't know what to do with Viciedo, as he was on a Major League deal from 2009-12 and earned $2.8MM in 2013 despite not yet being eligible for arbitration.  In reality I think he'll get some kind of raise for 2014.

Given a crack at the team's starting catcher job after the departure of A.J. Pierzynski, Flowers limped to a .195/.247/.355 line in 275 plate appearances.  He's cheap enough and catching is in short enough supply that some team may be willing to tender him a contract for $1MM, while the Sox have Josh Phegley as another option and could explore free agency.  September shoulder surgery further depresses Flowers' value, and a non-tender is possible.

The Sox added Purcey on a minor league deal in November, and the hard-throwing southpaw joined the big league club in July after a strong Triple-A showing.  Though he posted a fine 2.13 ERA in 25 1/3 innings for the Sox, his career-long control problems continued.  A UCL strain ended his season in September.  With a projected salary just above the league minimum, there's little harm in tendering him a contract, unless the Sox prefer to keep the roster spot open for now and try to bring him back on a minor league deal.

It's fairly safe to project a commitment around $11MM for De Aza, Beckham, and Viciedo.  Flowers and Purcey are more of a gray area, but won't cost much if retained. 

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Padres are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

After a disappointing season that made 2012's power output look like the outlier, Headley projects to receive a small raise through arbitration as he enters his contract year.  Mutual interest in an extension remains, Headley told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick in September.  Crasnick suggested Alex Gordon's five-year, $50MM deal as a potential comparable, a contract signed directly after Gordon's first elite season with the player two years away from free agency.  We've seen contract year extensions for Carlos Gomez (three years, $24MM), Martin Prado (four years, $40MM), and Carlos Quentin (three years, $30MM), and Headley could regret sacrificing his first crack at free agency for that type of deal.  Headley told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times in September, "I'm not actively trying to get to free agency, but trying to get what you are worth is important. It would be foolish not to at least pay attention. I'm not going to sell myself short."  I think if Headley can't get close to the five-year, $85MM range of the Andre Ethier deal, he'll hold off and risk a potential trade now or in July.

With Kennedy, Stults, Cashner, Ross, and Richard, the Padres have an entire rotation eligible for arbitration.  After undergoing shoulder surgery in mid-July, expect Richard to be non-tendered, even without a raise in the cards.  It's possible the Padres could look to bring him back on a much cheaper deal.  The other four are secure, with newly-acquired workhorse Kennedy projecting for the largest salary.  As a Boras Corporation client coming off a 4.91 ERA season, I don't expect him to sign an extension.  Ross, acquired from the Athletics a year ago, posted a sparkling 3.06 ERA in 16 starts but may not have done enough in his career to justify an extension.

Stults and Cashner are a study in contrast: the soft-tossing, 33-year-old former journeyman southpaw, and the hard-throwing 27-year-old former first round draft pick.  Stults led the Padres in innings this year and would probably jump at a multiyear guarantee.  Cashner had a breakout, fully healthy year, logging a 3.04 ERA in 26 starts after joining the rotation in late April.  With only 286 1/3 career innings, he's best compared to pitchers with less than three years of service, making five years and less than $30MM a possibility if both sides are thinking long-term.

Gregerson logged another sub-3.00 ERA season, showing a level of durability and consistency rarely found in a reliever.  The market suggests a three-year deal in the $15-16MM deal range, though the Padres could consider trading him for a significant return if they'd prefer not to go long-term.  After beginning the season in the minors, Stauffer fell short of six years of Major League service time.  He should be retained after a solid campaign as a long reliever.

Cabrera earned his first All-Star nod from Giants manager Bruce Bochy, though it was tainted by the Biogenesis investigation.  At the All-Star game, Cabrera maintained his innocence, which was ultimately revealed as a lie the following month when he accepted a 50-game suspension and apologized.  It would be a difficult spot for the Padres to lock him up, plus he's a Boras client anyway.

Blanks set a career high with 308 plate appearances, including five home runs and 18 RBI in June.  He later missed significant time with an Achilles injury.  Guzman started over 60 games for the 2013 Padres with ugly results, failing to mash lefties as he did from 2011-12.  Both are right-handed hitters who can handle first base and the outfield corners.  They also both project to earn around a million bucks.  If the Padres' projected starters are healthy, they may only have room for one of Blanks and Guzman, making a trade possible.  As the younger of the two, Blanks seems more likely to stay.

Assuming Headley, Kennedy, Gregerson, Stults, Cashner, Cabrera, Guzman, Ross, Blanks, and Stauffer are tendered contracts, the Padres are looking at an estimated $33.1MM for ten arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Rockies are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Lopez took a step back in 2013, but at $2.2MM the Rockies are still expected to retain him.  Nicasio made 31 starts this year, and while he wasn't great, he figures to stick around.  Outman and Herrera both had solid campaigns and are secure.

Boggs began the season as the Cardinals' interim closer in the wake of Jason Motte's injury, but was optioned to Triple-A by May.  He bounced up and down after that, and was traded to the Rockies in July for international bonus money. Boggs struggled at Triple-A for the Rockies and made only nine appearances with the big club.  "I would like for that to be here because I feel it’s a good fit," Boggs said of the Rockies and returning to a late inning role, to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in September.  Boggs is no sure thing to be tendered, but given his low projected salary and past success, I lean toward the Rockies giving him another look next year.

Corpas, 30, has served as the Rockies' closer at various times in his career and found his way back to the organization on a minor league deal in January.  He wound up making 31 appearances for the big club, but will probably be deemed expendable.

Assuming Lopez, Nicasio, Boggs, Outman, and Herrera are tendered contracts, the Rockies are looking at an estimated $8MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Reds Fire Dusty Baker

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10:55am: Baker was fired after he stood up for hitting coach Brook Jacoby, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Jocketty informed Baker that he was planning on firing Jacoby, to which Baker replied, "If want to fire someone, fire me," as he felt it was unfair for blame to fall on Jacoby.

Baker said he felt he was doing what was right by defending Jacoby and would like to continue his managerial career elsewhere, adds Heyman. The past several days have been difficult, Baker conceded, as he's also been receiving hate mail from angry fans.

9:45am: The Reds have confirmed the move via press release. Within the release, GM Walt Jocketty offers the following statement:

"This was a very difficult decision to make. Dusty played an important role in the recent success of this organization, and we thank him for his contributions during his time here. We feel a change is necessary, however, if we are to continue to move the organization forward."

9:02am: Baker was fired, writes ESPN's Buster Olney in his daily Insider-only column. Olney explains that club executives felt the team was steeped with Major League talent and expected a deep postseason run with a chance at a championship, not a quick exit in a one-game Wild Card playoff. According to Olney, there's a sense from the top of the organization that a clubhouse shake-up was needed.

Earlier this morning, Olney tweeted that the front office "was seething" after the team's loss to the Pirates, prompting the change.

7:33am: Dusty Baker is out as Reds manager, according to Ben Walker of the Associated Press.  The Reds will announce today that Baker has been replaced, though it is currently unclear whether he was fired or he resigned. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Baker had one year and roughly $3.5MM remaining on his contract.

Baker, 64, has been managing the Reds for the past six seasons, three of which have resulted in playoff berths. His record since taking over as Cincinnati's manager is 509-463. That .524 winning percentage is on par with his career percentage of .526. Baker is a three-time NL Manager of the Year and led the 2002 Giants to the National League pennant.

Earlier in the week, the Reds were bounced from the Wild Card playoff game by the Pirates, but general manager Walt Jocketty was quick to tell reporters, including John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, that he hadn't considered firing Baker: “I don’t think so,” Jocketty said. “He’s signed for another year.” That seems to suggest a resignation, though Reds ownership could have had a different view on Baker than Jocketty and brought about the change.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

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The playoffs are underway, and it's time for our last 2014 Free Agent Power Rankings in advance of our Top 50 Free Agents list in late October.  Our previous installment was published August 6th.  Though Hunter Pence was only able to snag an honorable mention at that point, he still signed a five-year, $90MM deal in late September.  Our tenth-ranked player, Chase Utley, signed a two-year, $27MM extension with three vesting options.  You can check out our full list of free agents here.

1.  Robinson Cano.  On September 26th, ESPN's Buster Olney reported Cano was seeking a ten-year contract worth approximately $305MM, which would be the largest in baseball history.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested $310MM.  Olney wrote, "Some friends of Cano have a sense that Cano will take the biggest offer that he receives this winter, regardless of whether it comes from the Yankees or some other team."  According to Sherman, the Yankees topped out in spring negotiations at seven years and less than $170MM.  GM Brian Cashman recently told reporters the Yankees have made or will make a significant offer, but that Cano will be given the chance to entertain offers from other teams.   If it's true that the Dodgers will sit out the bidding, it's too early to determine which clubs will give the Yankees a run for their money and offer more than $200MM. 

With another brilliant campaign, Cano never slipped from the top spot on this list.  In April, it was revealed Cano had left the Boras Corporation for Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA and rapper Jay Z.  It appears Van Wagenen will take lead on Cano's negotiations, but Jay Z has been certified as an agent.

2.  Jacoby Ellsbury.  Boras still has Ellsbury, who he seemed to compare to an aircraft carrier in a conversation with Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in early September.  Boras went to great lengths explaining why Ellsbury is better than Carl Crawford, suggesting he would seek more than the seven-year, $142MM deal Crawford signed after the 2010 season.  Of course, the numbers floated in September are usually much higher than the final price.  Ellsbury missed three weeks in September due to a foot injury, but appears fine for the playoffs.

3.  Shin-Soo Choo.  Choo, another Boras client, ranked fourth in all of baseball with a .423 on-base percentage.  Heyman discussed at length whether $100MM is possible, with Boras of course implying it's a low estimate.  Reaching that benchmark will depend on Boras getting a sixth year for his client; keep in mind Michael Bourn had to settle for four last winter.

4.  Brian McCann.  McCann's free agent profile can be found here, with my prediction of a five-year, $80MM contract.

5.  Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka leaps onto the list as a contender for the best available starting pitcher.  Not technically a free agent, Tanaka will have to be posted by his Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles.  He'll play next year at age 25, coming off a 1.24 ERA in 181 innings for Rakuten.

6.  Ervin Santana.  Santana will be vying for a fifth year, and some team may find it justified given past comparables like C.J. Wilson.  He will, however, cost a draft pick to sign after posting a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings.

7.  Matt Garza.  Garza posted a 4.89 ERA in his final 11 starts.  His peripheral stats were not bad aside from home runs and hits allowed, but the rough finish takes some of the shine off his free agency.  He did make all his starts since his May 21st season debut, and was working around 95 miles per hour in his last one.  Plus, unlike Santana, Garza is ineligible for a qualifying offer and won't cost a draft pick.  A five-year contract now seems optimistic for Garza, however.

8.  Hiroki Kuroda.  Kuroda's free agent profile can be found here, in which MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted a one-year, $16MM deal.   If he doesn't retire, he'll pitch next year at 38, and age hasn't slowed him down yet.

9.  A.J. Burnett.  Burnett is still considering retiring after the season, even though he's at the top of his game and kicked off the NLDS for the Pirates against the Cardinals yesterday (albeit poorly).  The Pirates have strong interest in retaining him, and Burnett doesn't seem to want to play anywhere else.

10.  Mike Napoli.  Napoli's free agent profile can be found here, in which I predicted a three-year, $42MM deal.  He's one of the most powerful free agent hitters.

Carlos Beltran, Josh Johnson, Nelson Cruz, and Tim Lincecum have previously occupied spots in the top ten, while Ubaldo Jimenez, Ricky Nolasco, Bartolo Colon, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Kazmir, Marlon Byrd, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Omar Infante, Kendrys Morales, and Stephen Drew have also positioned themselves well for free agency.  Cuban free agent Jose Abreu merits consideration among our top 20 free agents.

Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Phillies are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Revere's season ended on July 13th with a broken foot, but the 25-year-old center fielder is secure for next year.  Bastardo's season was cut short by a Biogenesis suspension, but he's expected to play in winter ball and will be tendered a contract for next year.  Frandsen trailed off significantly over the season's final three months, but is cheap enough to retain as a reserve.

Regarding Kendrick, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said on Monday, "I don't know why people are asking about that.  We will [bring him back]," according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  People were probably asking because as a guy with a 4.70 ERA, Kendrick's projected salary isn't much of a bargain.  Plus, he posted a 6.04 ERA over his final 17 starts and was shut down in September with a shoulder injury.

Lannan is likely to be cut loose, as a knee injury cost him more than half the season and he wasn't effective otherwise.  Mayberry is a "definite non-tender candidate," wrote Gelb yesterday, as the Phillies may slide Darin Ruf into his fourth outfielder role.  Mayberry, acquired by the Phillies in November '08, hit .227/.286/.391 this year.  Bernadina will likely be gone, after a lackluster showing in 27 games.  I expect Wells to be cut loose also.

If the Phillies tender contracts to Kendrick, Bastardo, Revere, and Frandsen, they'll be looking at an estimated $11.4MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Toronto Blue Jays

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Blue Jays are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

With big-time power and a solid .276 batting average, Rasmus finally showed the star potential that compelled the Blue Jays to trade for him in 2011, though an oblique strain knocked him out for a month.  His career-worst strikeout 29.5% rate portends a return to his low average days, but Rasmus will remain a major asset in center field.  2014 will be his contract year, and he won't turn 28 until August.  With free agency so close, it will be difficult to extend Rasmus for less than B.J. Upton money.

In his first full season in the bullpen, Cecil posted a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings and made the All-Star team.  His season ended a little early with an elbow injury.  The Jays have been willing to do small multiyear deals with players like this in the past, so if the injury is minor that could be possible with Cecil.

Arencibia continued to hit home runs, many of them in April.  However, his .227 on-base percentage was the worst for a player with at least 400 plate appearances since Rob Picciolo's .218 mark as a rookie shortstop for the A's in 1977.  FanGraphs suggests Arencibia was below replacement level overall this year, but it still seems someone would pick him up via trade prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Rogers moved into the Jays' rotation in June, posting a 4.89 ERA in 20 starts.  The hard-throwing 28-year-old righty is cheap enough to retain as a swingman.

Assuming Rasmus, Arencibia, Rogers, and Cecil are tendered contracts, the Blue Jays are looking at an estimated $11.2MM for four arbitration eligible players.

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