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Free Agent Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury

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A healthy 2013 season went a long way toward restoring Jacoby Ellsbury's free agent value.  He bounced back from a lost 2012 season to re-establish himself as one of the game's elite leadoff men and center fielders, and agent Scott Boras surely expects a contract well north of $100MM.

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Strengths/Pros

Ellsbury is known for his blazing speed, and he led all of baseball with 52 stolen bases this year.  He previously picked up the American League stolen base crown in '08 and topped MLB in '09.  He has a strong career stolen base success rate of 84%, and was up near 93% this year.  FanGraphs' baserunning stat, which includes steals and a bunch of other baserunning skills, suggests Ellsbury was worth 11.4 runs on the basepaths this year.  That figure was the best in baseball.

To make an impact on the bases, a player needs first to reach base, and Ellsbury does well there with a .350 career OBP.  He has a high contact rate and a .297 career batting average, and draws enough walks to supplement his hits.  

Ellsbury also has more pop than the typical center fielder, with a career slugging percentage of .439 and isolated power of .141.  While his power is more of the doubles and triples variety, which is aided by his speed, he did hit 32 home runs in 2011.  As Baseball HQ likes to say, once you display a skill, you own it, so it's fair to say Ellsbury has the potential for double digit home runs.  

That 2011 season looks amazing on a resume, as Ellsbury led all of baseball with 9.1 wins above replacement.  He finished second in the AL MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and made the All-Star team.

Defense is another strong suit for Ellsbury.  He won a Gold Glove in 2011 and has consistently posted above average UZR and DRS numbers in center field.  Ellsbury adds value in every conceivable way.

This year FanGraphs had him at 5.8 wins above replacement, a level of production a team might value at $30MM or more.  Ellsbury's WAR ranked second only to Robinson Cano among free agents.  Ellsbury will play next year at age 30, which is considered young for a free agent.

Weaknesses/Cons

Ellsbury already has lost two seasons to injury in his career.  He played only 18 games in 2010, fracturing multiple ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre in April.  Two years later, he collided with Reid Brignac while sliding into second base and ended up playing only 74 games due to a shoulder injury.  "Jacoby Ellsbury is a very durable player. He just has to make sure that people don’t run into him," Boras told reporters in July.  There may be an element of truth to that, but most people in the game would not use the word "durable" to describe Ellsbury.  Ellsbury didn't run into anyone this year, but he was still limited to 134 games due to a groin injury, a sore wrist, and a compression fracture in his right foot.  He was on the field for the postseason, playing in all 16 games despite a nagging hand injury first reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

There is a belief around baseball that speed doesn't age well, and Ellsbury's game could suffer if he loses a step.  While Ellsbury is not as reliant on infield hits as he used to be, they still comprised about 14% of his total this year, according to Baseball-Reference.  His 7.4% walk rate this year, while a career best, is nothing special.  Ellsbury's OBP could come down as he loses speed, more so than with the average player.  And of course, speed is a big factor in center field defense.

A left-handed batter, Ellsbury wasn't much of a threat against southpaws this year, posting a .246/.323/.318 line in 237 plate appearances.

Ellsbury is a lock to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so signing him will require a team to forfeit its highest available pick in the 2014 draft.

Personal

Ellsbury was born and raised in Madras, Oregon, and the town threw a parade for him in 2007.  He met his future wife Kelsey while they were attending college at Oregon State.  According to the Red Sox media guide, Ellsbury is believed to be the first Native American of Navajo descent to play in MLB, and he's proud of his heritage.  This year he conducted the Second Annual N7 Jacoby Ellsbury Baseball Camp at the Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in January, with 130 kids in attendance.

Ellsbury loves basketball and played in high school, along with football and of course baseball.  He played on travel teams and became friends with current Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie.  The two players were drafted 22 picks apart in 2005 and were teammates for many years in the minors and Majors. 

Market

The Red Sox have made efforts to sign Ellsbury in the past, and will at least have conversations with Boras.  Otherwise, any team with some payroll space that doesn't have an elite center fielder in place will be approached, including the Rangers, Mariners, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, and Cubs.  I'd throw the Tigers in that mix, but that could be tricky for Boras since center fielder Austin Jackson is another one of his clients.

Ellsbury is an ownership level discussion, and Boras has those connections, so it doesn't necessarily matter if the GM approves.

Expected Contract

In September, Boras explained at length to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports why Ellsbury is better than fellow speedy outfielder Carl Crawford.  Boras generally has huge expectations for contracts for his elite free agents, and I think he expects to top Crawford's seven-year, $142MM contract from three years ago.  Boras has secured eight, nine, and ten-year deals before, and he's probably thinking eight or nine years for Ellsbury as a starting point.  I think there's a chance a team springs for eight, especially if that knocks down the average annual value a bit.  Crawford fell short of $21MM a year, and I think Boras can get $20-23MM per year for Ellsbury.  Ultimately, I predict a seven-year, $150MM deal.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2014 MLB Free Agent Tracker And Important Dates

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The 2014 MLB Free Agent Tracker is now available at MLB Trade Rumors!  All free agents are listed, and you can filter by position, signing status, signing team, qualifying offer status, contract years and amount, throwing and batting handedness, and any combination of the above.  For the most part, our cutoff for a player's inclusion on the tracker is 50 MLB plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in 2013.  Led by Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka, our Top 50 Free Agents list with predictions will be published Sunday night.  For now, make your wish lists with the free agent tracker, read up with our free agent profiles, and check out my top ten free agents from earlier this month.  We also have a basic list that shows which free agents remain available at each position, found here.

The Red Sox front office will have little time to bask in the glow of the franchise's eighth World Championship.  Upcoming important dates:

  • Players with at least six years of Major League service and no contract for 2014 are eligible to become free agents as of 8am central time today, October 31st.  That marks the opening of the Quiet Period.
  • MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list with predictions will be published the evening of Sunday, November 3rd.  Our prediction contest will open at that time as well.
  • The five-day Quiet Period ends at 10:59pm central time on Monday, November 4th.  During the Quiet Period, free agents may talk to any team about either side's interest, the player's potential role, the advantages and disadvantages of playing for that team and city, and length of a potential contract, guarantee provisions, and no-trade provisions.  A free agent may not, however, negotiate terms or contract with a new team during this period.  He may negotiate terms and enter into a contract with his former team.
  • During the Quiet Period, the former team may tender a qualifying offer, which is a guaranteed one-year, $14.1MM deal for 2014.  Qualifying offer decisions by the team are due by 4pm central time on Monday, November 4th.  Check out MLBTR's qualifying offer reader poll from September for an idea of which free agents are likely to receive one.
  • Additionally, option decisions must be decided by the end of the Quiet Period.  A large majority (all of them last year) will be resolved by 10:59pm central time on Saturday, November 2nd.
  • Once the Quiet Period ends Monday night, free agents can negotiate with any team.
  • A free agent has until Monday, November 11th by 4pm central time to accept a qualifying offer.  Any player who accepts is considered signed for 2014.  If a player declines a qualifying offer, his former team becomes eligible for compensation if the player signs a Major League contract with another Major League team before the 2014 draft.  The former team receives an amateur draft choice as compensation, while the signing team forfeits its highest available selection and the accompanying bonus pool money in the draft.
  • Baseball's GM Meetings are from November 11-13th in Orlando, Florida.
  • The non-tender deadline for arbitration eligible players is December 2nd.
  • Baseball's Winter Meetings are from December 9-12th, also in Orlando.

Hector Santiago Joins Excel Sports Management

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White Sox lefty Hector Santiago is now a client of Excel Sports Management, MLBTR has learned.  His primary agent will be Jim Murray.  Santiago had formerly been represented by Brian McCafferty of MSM Sports Management.  You can check out Excel's MLB client list here.  MLBTR's agency database can be found here.

Santiago, 25, posted a 3.56 ERA in 149 innings for the White Sox this year, including 23 starts.  With just over two years of Major League service at present, Santiago projects to be eligible for arbitration for the first time after the 2014 season.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Dodgers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Kershaw easily has the largest projected salary of the 200+ arbitration eligible players.  Furthermore, his projection tops the largest arbitration reward in MLB history, Prince Fielder's $15.5MM in 2011.  Cole Hamels set the record for a pitcher with $15MM in 2012.  We had to invoke the Kimbrel Rule in limiting Kershaw's raise to $6.9MM.  

There seems to be a general feeling that Kershaw has little chance of reaching the open market, because the Dodgers have the money and intent to sign their ace long-term within the next 12 months (and preferably before the 2014 season begins).  The largest contract ever given to a pitcher remains the seven-year, $161MM deal C.C. Sabathia signed with the Yankees nearly five years ago.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported progress in June between the Dodgers and Kershaw on a seven-year deal worth more than $180MM, with other proposals under discussion such as $250MM over 10 years and $300MM over 12 years.  In August, Rosenthal reported that the Dodgers and Kershaw were close to a seven-year, $210MM deal that would have included a player opt-out clause after five years, from which the Dodgers backed off.  This month, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about a $300MM lifetime contract the Dodgers had offered earlier in the season, perhaps the same one to which Rosenthal referred in June.  Players must file for arbitration on January 14th next year, with figures to be exchanged on the 17th, but I imagine the Dodgers and Kershaw will be willing to talk about a long-term deal up until Opening Day.

Closer Kenley Jansen posted another fine season, though perhaps his first 30-save campaign will come in 2014 assuming he owns the job from the start of the season.  There is no extension model for three-plus closers, so the Dodgers and Jansen would have to forge new territory to get a deal done.

Ellis' production declined from 2012, to .238/.318/.364 in 448 plate appearances.  The team could consider trading Ellis to open up a pursuit of Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Butera, a backup type acquired for depth at the trade deadline, will likely be non-tendered.

The Dodgers picked up Baxter from the Mets on a waiver claim this month, suggesting they'll consider tendering him a contract.  He'll make something around the league minimum, so it's really about how they want to use the roster spot.  Elbert, a 28-year-old lefty reliever, had Tommy John surgery in June and is a non-tender candidate.  Belisario was not particularly good this year, with ERAs around 8.00 in June and September.  He did have a 3.97 ERA overall and the Dodgers liked him enough to use him in the playoffs, so he's probably safe.

Assuming the Dodgers tender contracts to Kershaw, Jansen, Ellis, Belisario, and Baxter, they're looking at an estimated $29MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Braves are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Kimbrel's arbitration case is so incredible, we created a rule around it to limit his salary.  Since his salary could escalate like no other reliever's has before, the Braves could try to get out in front of the situation and sign him to a multiyear deal.  It's difficult to imagine buying out his three arbitration years for less than $25MM, and free agent years could cost $13MM apiece.  There is no template here, and the safe bet for the Braves is to go year-to-year.

Medlen followed up his stellar 2012 with a strong 3.11 ERA in 197 regular season innings.  A Tommy John survivor, Medlen is quietly closing in on free agency after the 2015 season.  If the Braves want to lock him up, Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal could be a starting point.  The arbitration cases of Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, and Doug Fister will be relevant to Medlen this winter, as all of them are in the four-plus service class.

The Braves may also want to look into locking up Minor, who achieves Super Two status after posting a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings.  Gio Gonzalez, also a Super Two at the time, signed a five-year, $42MM deal prior to the 2012 season, which is still a record for a two-plus pitcher.

Beachy doesn't project to earn much his first time through arbitration, as he has only 267 2/3 career innings and only 111 over 2012-13 due to Tommy John surgery.  He's still not all the way back, with arthroscopic elbow surgery being done in September.  He'll be in the Braves' rotation mix next year if healthy.

Freeman put together an MVP-caliber year at first base, hitting .319 with 23 home runs and 109 RBI.  On an extension, he'd easily be able to top Billy Butler's four-year, $30MM deal, which will be four years old come January.  RBIs pay in arbitration and free agency, and Freeman has 203 over the last two years.  He may just go year-to-year and watch his salary rise rapidly from our already-solid projected starting point of $4.9MM.  Though the Braves have traditional extension candidates in Kimbrel, Medlen, Minor, and Freeman, they have rarely done these types of deals.  Brian McCann's 2007 contract is the most recent example.

A year ago, Heyward was one of the game's best young players not signed to a multiyear extension.  Though he had another strong season, he missed time due to an appendectomy, hamstring strain, and fractured jaw in 2013.  He'll play at age 24 next year and seems primed for a big season.  Johnson, meanwhile, contended for the NL batting title and finished with a .321 average.  Unlike this year, he won't have to worry about having a platoon partner at third base to begin the 2014 season.

Turning to the Braves' bench, Schafer battled injuries but was a useful fourth outfielder.  Infielder Ramiro Pena was off to a nice start until a shoulder injury ended his season in June.  He hopes to be ready for spring training after having surgery.  Elliot Johnson joined the Royals as the player to be named later in the James Shields–Wil Myers deal, after being designated for assignment.  He was the team's regular second baseman at times, but was designated for assignment again in August.  The Braves claimed him off waivers, and he was their starter in the playoffs at second base over Dan Uggla.  Though Johnson wasn't particularly good in 2013, I think the Braves will keep him given the uncertainty with Pena.  Janish has a low salary projection, but seems likely to be non-tendered after giving way to Johnson this year.

Finishing up the Braves' sizeable group, Walden, Venters, and Martinez are also up for arbitration.  Walden is secure after posting a 3.45 ERA with a 10.3 K/9 in 47 innings.  Venters had his second career Tommy John surgery in May, and faces a lower success rate than those who had the procedure once.  We project his salary to stay at the $1.625MM he earned in 2013, though as we saw with the Royals and Felipe Paulino, a slight pay cut is possible.  Venters stands a decent chance of being non-tendered.  Also on thin ice is Cristhian Martinez, who had shoulder surgery in July.

Assuming the Braves tender contracts to Kimbrel, Medlen, Freeman, Heyward, Chris Johnson, Minor, Walden, Schafer, Elliot Johnson, Beachy, and Pena, they're looking at an estimated $35.15MM for 11 arbitration eligible players.       

Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Athletics are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Anderson is the team's most interesting case.  After a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, we are not projecting an arbitration raise for the 25-year-old southpaw, so we're going with his 2013 salary of $5.5MM.  His 2013 salary, however, was part of a four-year deal Anderson signed in 2010.  For 2014, the A's have the choice of an $8MM option or a $1.5MM buyout, and GM Billy Beane told reporters including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle it's likely the option will be exercised.  If the A's instead decline the option and pay the buyout plus our projected arbitration salary, they could save around a million dollars.  However, declining the 2014 option would nullify a 2015 option for $12MM (which also  has a $1.5MM buyout).  It appears, then, that the A's find it worth $1MM or so now to have the ability to retain Anderson for 2015 at $12MM.  That's curious for a guy who hasn't reached 100 innings since 2010 due to injuries, but perhaps the A's will end up trading Anderson this winter anyway.

Position players Lowrie, Moss, and Jaso are on solid ground for 2014.  Lowrie stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in his career, and enters his contract year looking for a repeat.  The A's could look into a team-friendly extension, if Lowrie prefers financial security over playing out 2014 and reaching free agency.  Even shielded against lefties, Moss smacked 30 home runs as the team's primary first baseman.  Also avoiding southpaws, Jaso did his job, ranking second in on-base percentage among all catchers with at least 200 plate appearances.  His season ended with a late July concussion, but he should be OK for 2014.

Reddick saw his power sapped by an April wrist injury, for which he is having offseason surgery.  The A's will retain him.  Smith's production slipped this year, and even against righties his slugging percentage slipped to .408.  He came up big in the division series with a home run against Anibal Sanchez, but at $4.3MM next year I think the A's will non-tender him.

Blevins and Chavez have modest salary projections and should be part of next year's bullpen.  Neshek's ERA was down to 2.10 at the end of June, after which point he posted a 6.75 ERA in 12 innings and was designated for assignment.  He remained in the organization and had his contract purchased in September, but seems likely to be non-tendered.  Rodriguez joined the A's from the Astros in the February Jed Lowrie deal, but needed Tommy John surgery in late March.  Though he's arbitration eligible as a Super Two, he doesn't project to make more than the league minimum, so the A's just have to decide if they want to use a 40-man roster spot on him.

The A's retained Barton through arbitration last offseason for $1.1MM, but designated him for assignment as spring training ended.  He was outrighted to Triple-A, found his way back to the Majors in May, and then was designated and outrighted again.  He came back in August and even made the postseason roster over Nate Freiman.  Barton posted another OBP over .400 in Triple-A this year, but I think the 28-year-old will be non-tendered this time.  Sizemore is also on the bubble after re-tearing his ACL a few games into the season.

Since the A's expect to pick up Anderson's option, we won't include him in our arbitration estimate.  If the A's tender contracts to Lowrie, Moss, Jaso, Reddick, Blevins, and Chavez, they're looking at an estimated $15.1MM for six arbitration eligible players. 

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Rangers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and was activated from the DL in September this year.  He's expected to remain in the bullpen in 2014, and could ascend back to the closer role at some point.  His salary remains low for now.  Ogando's role is undecided for 2014, but injury issues could relegate him to the bullpen again.  Cotts was an incredible story, and should again be an asset in the Rangers' pen as he enters his contract year at age 34.  Cotts hasn't earned much in the game and seemed close to retirement at one point, so it's possible the Rangers could tack on a year at a modest salary.

Moreland, 28, is a tough tender decision.  With a .232/.299/.437 line in 518 plate appearances, plus a DL stint for a hamstring injury, he didn't have the breakout year in 2013 for which the Rangers had hoped.  Jose Dariel Abreu is off the market, but the team could look at free agents like Kendrys Morales, James Loney, Corey Hart, and even Mike Napoli for first base.  If they make an acquisition prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline, a trade or non-tender of Moreland will become more likely.  Gentry had an excellent season in limited duty, and will have a role in next year's outfield.

Rosales bounced around between the A's and Rangers multiple times this year, and will probably lose his 40-man roster spot again.  Blackley was removed from the Astros' 40-man roster in August, but was acquired by the Rangers and had his contract purchased.  He's likely to be non-tendered as well.

Moreland is an unknown at this point, but if the Rangers tender contracts to him, Feliz, Ogando, Cotts, and Gentry, they're looking at an estimated $10.3MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Free Agent Profile: Suk-min Yoon

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Suk-min Yoon is a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher who intends to jump from the Korea Baseball Organization to MLB this offseason.  Hyun-jin Ryu was the ace of KBO and had success in his first MLB season, but what can we expect from the second best pitcher out of Korea?

Strengths/Pros

After bouncing between the rotation and bullpen for most of his career, Yoon had a breakout 2011 season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9 in 172 1/3 innings, winning the MVP award.  Yoon's 2012 was excellent as well: a 3.12 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 0.53 HR/9 in 153 frames.  Check out all of his stats at MyKBO.net.  Yoon has experience as a closer, so a relief role could be possible if necessary.

According to report two years ago from Yahoo's Jeff Passan, Yoon's fastball sat at 93 miles per hour and one scout deemed his change-up above average.  Yoon has been represented for several years by Scott Boras, who told George A. King III of the New York Post, "He’s a 91 to 92 [mph] guy. He’s a good pitcher … not an overpowering arm."  King says Boras sees Yoon as a Kyle Lohse type, though it's not clear if Boras or King drew the comparison.  One source I spoke to feels Yoon has the potential for three above average pitches.  

Yoon will pitch next year at age 27, meaning he's the youngest free agent starter available and one of few in his 20s.

As an international free agent, Yoon will not require a draft pick to sign.  Additionally, unlike Ryu, Yoon is a free agent and will not require a posting fee.

Weaknesses/Cons

Yoon dealt with a shoulder injury in 2013, about which not much is known publicly.  Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency tells me the injury "seemed serious."  Yoon made 11 starts with a 4.16 ERA, as well as 19 relief appearances with a 3.60 mark.  Yoon's coaches asked him to close for the Kia Tigers in their time of need in August, prompting his move to the bullpen.  At any rate, Yoon's 172 1/3 innings in 2011 was a career-high, so 30 big league starts would be a new level for him.  The increased travel may have worn on Ryu this year and could affect Yoon as well.  After an off year, it may have made sense to rebuild value in Korea, but Yoon wants to come over now.

Yoon has certainly been accessible to scouts over the years in Korea, and he has pitched in the 2008 Summer Olympics and the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics.  However, we haven't seen much in the way of scouting reports in the public arena yet, and it's unclear if he even rates as an MLB starter.  One MLB executive I spoke to sees Yoon as a reliever.

Personal

Yoon is a single guy, and Yoo tells me the pitcher enjoys driving and fishing (and perhaps driving to go fishing).  Yoo says Yoon is "not a rah-rah guy in the clubhouse," but in Korean sports culture age and seniority matter a great deal in determining the clubhouse leader.  There was one maturity issue in 2010, when Yoon broke his right pinkie after punching his locker.  

Market

Yoon rumors have been light in the early going.  In mid-October, Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500 said the Twins would scout Yoon's showcase, but Boras later told King no showcase was happening.  And while Boras intends to engage Yankees GM Brian Cashman about Yoon, there's no indication whether the team is interested.  Along with the Twins, the Cubs, Rays, Royals, and Orioles are among the teams with Korean scouts, so they may have extra information on Yoon.

Expected Contract

Of my contract predictions so far, I have the least confidence in this one, due to the lack of public information on Yoon.  He's a bit of a wild card, but I'm going with a two-year, $10MM deal.

Thanks to Dan Kurtz of myKBO.net and Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency for insight.

Free Agent Profile: Kendrys Morales

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Kendrys Morales is one of the 15 best hitters on the free agent market this offseason.  And among proven middle of the order hitters on the market, only Morales can boast of playing the 2014 season at age 30.

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Strengths/Pros

Offensively, Morales doesn't stand out in any one aspect, but he doesn't have any major holes either.  He owns a .280 career average, .275 over the last two seasons.  He doesn't strike out a ton like Mike Napoli, and he's shown acceptable power unlike Justin Morneau or James Loney have in recent years.  Morales tied Napoli with 23 home runs in 2013, sixth among all free agents.  His power has been consistent since becoming a full-timer in '09, with a slugging percentage that never dipped below .449 and isolated power of .171 or better.

A switch-hitter, Morales doesn't have an extreme platoon split.  Over the last two years, he's hitting .269/.338/.448 against lefties and .278/.326/.460 against righties.

Morales has one particularly impressive offensive season to his credit, as he hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 home runs and 108 runs batted in in 2009 and finished fifth in the AL MVP voting.

Morales has youth on his side, having turned 30 in June.  He's younger than Napoli, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, Marlon Byrd, Shin-Soo Choo, and Nelson Cruz.  The only younger free agent bat is Jacoby Ellsbury, who is viewed as a leadoff hitter and isn't in the same price bracket.

Weaknesses/Cons

Morales has a .275/.329/.457 batting line since 2012.  His OBP is slightly below-average for a first baseman or designated hitter, and his power production has been about average.  Agent Scott Boras blames the Mariners' home park, telling Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in August, "A 20-homer season in Safeco is like a 30-homer season somewhere else."  I'm not sure if Boras was literally suggesting Morales' park cost him ten home runs.  I spoke to Dave Cameron of FanGraphs and U.S.S. Mariner, who suggested it would be more likely for the park to have cost Morales one or two home runs in 2013, especially with the fences having been moved in this year.  Furthermore, Morales actually hit for more power at Safeco than on the road in 2013.

Morales provides no value defensively and is likely limited to American League teams with an opening at the designated hitter spot.  He played 28 games at first base in 2012 and 31 in 2013, serving as DH the majority of the time.  An inability to play the field regularly sets the bar extra-high for offense, which is part of the reason Morales was valued by FanGraphs at just 1.7 wins above replacement in 2012 and 1.2 in 2013.  Among free agent position players this year, Morales' WAR isn't in the top 20.  Fangraphs' WAR pegs him as a $6-8MM player, yet the price tag will surely be higher.

Morales is one of the slowest players in baseball.  He cost the Mariners 5.5 runs on the basepaths in 2013, sixth-worst in the game.  Even in his standout 2009 season, he was the worst baserunner in MLB.

Morales' career took a major turn on May 29th, 2010.  He hit a walkoff grand slam against Brandon League, fracturing his ankle and lower tibia in his celebratory leap onto home plate.  His recovery required two surgical procedures, and he didn't return until the beginning of the 2012 season.  Morales seems fully recovered now, having played 134 games in 2012 and 156 in 2013.

In early October, Mariners GM Jack Zdurenick said his team will definitely make Morales a qualifying offer, which is worth $14.1MM for 2014.  A week later, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote that Morales will turn down that offer.  

Personal

Morales played for the Cuban national team as a teenager, and successfully defected in 2004 at age 20 after more than ten failed attempts.  He drew interest from teams such as the Mets, Marlins, Indians, and Rangers before landing with the Angels.  Morales told Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today in 2009 he found the culture shock jarring, but became used to the lifestyle change.  In that article, which I should stress is four years old, Ortiz notes that Morales was hesitant to speak English and had limited but friendly communication with non-Spanish-speaking teammates.  More recently, I've heard that Morales leads by example in the clubhouse and gets along well with teammates.  Ortiz also mentions in the article that Morales is an only child who lost his father early in his life.  He is married and has three children.

Market

The Mariners expressed interest in extending Morales before the trade deadline, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who says the team "balked at contract figures suggested by Boras and never made the player a formal offer."  "I would love to bring Kendrys back," Zduriencik said on ESPN 710's Bob and Groz show in early October.  Since the Mariners already consider Morales a $14MM player, they seem the team most likely to meet Boras' demands.

As a good player and not a great one, Morales' market could be hurt greatly with the draft pick cost attached.  Team like the Rangers and Orioles won't be keen on losing their first-round pick to sign Morales, while a club like the Twins may not even want to surrender their second-rounder.  Perhaps Boras will attempt to piggyback onto another free agent, aiming for a team that already lost a draft pick, as happened with Boras, the Indians, and Michael Bourn last winter.

Since pure designated hitters are rare in general, Morales' competition in terms of bat-only players is light, with names like Ibanez and Luke Scott.  If we include first basemen, players such as Mike Napoli, Morneau, Loney, Mike Morse, and Corey Hart enter the mix.

Expected Contract

Boras will likely set out seeking a four-year contract for Morales, aiming high as a starting point.  Contracts given to Cody Ross, Michael Cuddyer, and Josh Willingham the past two offseasons lend credence to the possibility of a three-year contract for Morales, though none of them were as far down the path toward full-blown DH nor did the signing teams lose a draft pick.  The best comparable might be Adam LaRoche, who was tied to draft pick compensation last offseason and was unable to get a third year.  Ultimately I think Morales will beat LaRoche's contract and sign a two-year, $28MM deal with a third-year vesting option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Royals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

In Holland, Hochevar, Collins, and Crow, four mainstays of the Royals' excellent bullpen are arbitration eligible.  Holland was flat-out dominant, earning an All-Star nod while posting a 1.21 ERA with 47 saves and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.  With a few more seasons near that level, he could get expensive in a hurry.  There aren't any recent closers who signed extensions with three years of service, but Brian Wilson received about $19.5MM for his three arbitration years.  Hochevar finally found his calling in the bullpen and was almost as good as Holland.  While he's approaching the market price for a setup man, keeping him in front of Holland and shortening games to seven innings again next year is surely appealing to the Royals.  

Collins and Crow had problems with free passes and scuffled at times in 2013, but are penciled into next year's pen as well.  Collins is a southpaw, but otherwise the Royals are deep in right-handed relief and may be able to use part of the surplus in a trade.

Mendoza won the Royals' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, but was demoted to the bullpen in July.  He was used sparingly in a mop-up role and was hit hard in his six relief appearances to close out the season.  A non-tender is possible despite his low projected salary, or he could be traded.  Paulino underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2012, allowing the Royals to pull off the rare salary decrease in arbitration.  His rehab efforts this year were cut short due to a cyst in his shoulder, on which he had surgery in September.  The Royals will be able to bring him back one more time for around the same salary, and if his recovery is going well, it's probably worth doing.

After a lousy 2012, Hosmer bounced back with a strong campaign just in time for the first of four potential arbitration years.  I'd suggest an Allen Craig or Billy Butler type of extension, but Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, and he's never done that type of deal.  Elsewhere among the Royals' position players, Bonifacio and Maxwell will have roles on next year's team, with strong showings after coming over in summer trades.

Though they would be cheap to retain, Getz, Hayes, and Kottaras are non-tender candidates.  Getz won the Royals' starting second base job out of Spring Training, but was optioned to Triple-A in June and missed time with a knee injury upon his return to the Majors.  Hayes, a November waiver claim from the Marlins, was on and off the 40-man roster this year and was third on the Royals' catching depth chart.  Kottaras, a January waiver claim from the Athletics, won the backup catcher job out of camp and held it for the season.  It seems likely Hayes will lose his 40-man spot again, while Kottaras may stay on as Salvador Perez's backup unless the Royals decide they need an upgrade.

Assuming the Royals tender contracts to Hochevar, Holland, Hosmer, Bonifacio, Paulino, Crow, Kottaras, Maxwell, and Collins, they're looking at an estimated $24.35MM for nine arbitration eligible players. 

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