Discounted Josh Johnson Is Low Risk, High Reward For Padres
The Padres have long held a competitive advantage in that San Diego is a desirable place to play baseball, specifically with a large, pitcher-friendly ballpark. They can often sign free agent starting pitchers without making the highest bid, as was the case with their one-year, $8MM deal for righty Josh Johnson.
Johnson was limited to 16 starts for the Blue Jays in 2013 due to triceps tightness and a forearm injury, which resulted in arthroscopic elbow surgery in early October. As explained in our free agent profile, Johnson has had only three healthy seasons in the last five, and the gold standard contract for a pitcher coming off an injury is Ben Sheets' $10MM deal with the Athletics nearly four years ago. It seems possible Johnson and agent Matt Sosnick could have gotten close to that $10MM mark had they focused on the highest bidder, but the pitcher preferred San Diego for personal reasons. The Padres got a discount approaching 20%, just for being the Padres.
Johnson was already a low-risk proposition, since he targeted a one-year deal from the outset as a means of rebuilding value and re-entering free agency after 2014. The Padres further lowered their risk a bit by acquiring a $4MM club option for 2015 in the event Johnson makes fewer than seven starts in 2014, according to Yahoo's Jeff Passan. We saw a more drastic version of this clause play out with the Red Sox and John Lackey, as Lackey's league minimum option went into effect when he missed significant time with surgery for a pre-existing elbow injury. Most likely, Johnson will make at least seven starts in 2014, as he has each season since 2007, when he had Tommy John surgery. If he doesn't, something serious will have gone wrong, and the Padres may not want to guarantee Johnson even $4MM for 2015. It would be nice to have the option, though.
Johnson hasn't had an ace-caliber, healthy season since 2010, which is why I think his upside is something closer to 2012's 3.81 ERA rather than the type of season that gets Cy Young votes. There's still considerable upside for the Padres in this deal, though, as Johnson's earnings top out at $9.25MM for 2014. The going rate for a #3-4 type starter is around $14MM, and Johnson certainly has that capability for the Padres.
The best part about signing Johnson for the Padres is that they are not relying on him. As Passan explains, they've got a surplus of starters with Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, Eric Stults, Tyson Ross, and others, so if Johnson goes bust it won't ruin their chances of having a good rotation.
Latest On Gavin Floyd’s Elbow Rehab
Gavin Floyd's rehabilitation from May surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and torn flexor tendon in his elbow is progressing extremely well, agent Mike Moye tells MLBTR. Moye says Floyd escalated his throwing program to three sets at 180 feet this week and is experiencing almost no soreness. Based on discussions with his doctor and trainer, Floyd's mound program should begin no later than December 7th and possibly sooner. Floyd's mound program will likely follow a two to three month timeline. Barring an unforseen setback, Floyd should be ready to take the mound in game action prior to Opening Day 2014.
Floyd, 31 in January, made five starts this year prior to the injury. Prior to 2013, he made at least 29 starts in each of the five previous seasons for the White Sox. Floyd generally posted ERAs in the low 4.00s during that time. I imagine he's likely to sign a one-year deal this offseason. While we've seen that setbacks are possible with these types of elbow procedures, there seems to be optimism currently that Floyd can contribute with a Major League club for the majority of the 2014 season.
Shaun Marcum Expects To Be Ready For Spring Training
Shaun Marcum's Mets career came to a close in July of this year, when he had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS). Marcum's recovery is progressing well, agent Rex Gary tells MLBTR, and he'll be on his normal offseason throwing program in the coming months. The righty, 32 in December, is expected to be ready for spring training.
TOS is a condition caused when the blood vessels or nerves between the collarbone and first rib become compressed. In Marcum's case, numbness and coldness in his pitching hand was affecting his ability to grip the baseball, Mets assistant GM John Ricco told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
Limited to 124 innings in 2012 due to an elbow injury, Marcum signed a one-year deal with the Mets for $4MM guaranteed in January of this year. He tossed 78 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2013, posting a 5.29 ERA.
Cano’s Agents Called Meeting With Mets
10:04am: The Mets told Cano's camp prior to the meeting that the chances of a deal were very slim, but they didn't want to say "no" off the bat, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. ESPN's Adam Rubin tweets that the Mets took the meeting primarily as a means of getting to know a new agent, Jay-Z.
7:43am: The agents for free agent second baseman Robinson Cano called a meeting with the Mets to discuss the player's free agency Monday night at a Manhattan hotel, according to Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post. Jay Z, Brodie Van Wagenen, and Juan and Desiree Perez were on hand to represent Cano, while Jeff Wilpon, Sandy Alderson and John Ricco attended for the Mets.
The two sides did not talk numbers, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. According to Martino, the meeting contained a "Boras-like" presentation, in that it relied on multiple printed reports, visual elements and other tools.
Last week at the GM Meetings, Alderson told reporters the Mets are unlikely to be in the mix for an additional $100MM+ player, to avoid concentrating a large portion of the payroll in a small number of players. The Mets don't seem to have the payroll flexibility to add Cano, especially with their need for multiple outfielders, possibly a shortstop, and some relief help.
Regardless of the Mets' ability (or inability) to sign Cano, it makes sense for his camp to explore all options and meet with as many teams as possible. Cano is facing a limited market, so it's imperative that Van Wagenen and Jay-Z drum up some competitors for the Yankees, who are currently looking more in the $190-210MM price range.
Roy Oswalt Plans To Pitch In 2014
It's easy to forget that Roy Oswalt is only 36 years old, as the righty debuted with the Astros way back in 2001. Oswalt definitely intends to pitch in the Majors in 2014, MLBTR has learned. Unlike in years past, Oswalt intends to sign during the offseason and fully participate in spring training.
A source tells MLBTR that while Oswalt prefers starting, he's open to a late inning relief role. In fact, he's already been approached by multiple teams about that possibility. Though Oswalt has struggled the last few seasons, it appears he is seeking a Major League deal.
Oswalt signed a minor league contract with the Rockies in May of this year, working at extended spring training and then making six starts in the minors before returning to the Majors in June. A hamstring strain cost him about two months. Though he posted solid peripheral stats, Oswalt was done in by 49 hits in 32 1/3 innings, resulting in an 8.63 ERA.
Phillies Pay Premium To Retain Ruiz Early
The Phillies made an aggressive strike today, agreeing to a three-year, $26MM contract with catcher Carlos Ruiz. From the point of view of Ruiz and agent Marc Kligman, this is a clear win and an offer they were unlikely to beat if they waited. I felt that with Ruiz turning 35 in January, a third guaranteed year was unattainable unless they made a major sacrifice on average annual value. However, the $8.67MM AAV is strong and in line with what some thought Ruiz might get on a two-year deal. I am surprised to see Ruiz top Russell Martin's deal from last winter in both years and AAV, especially since Martin was five years younger and coming off a better year. It's too early to say whether the Ruiz contract is an anomaly, a trend toward rising salaries for catchers, or even a sign that most of the top free agents will beat expectations.
The contract is acceptable for the Phillies in terms of dollars per wins above replacement, as Ruiz is still at least an average regular. Dollars per WAR isn't the right metric on which to judge a free agent contract, however, especially since the free agent market generally doesn't pay full price for catchers. How far beyond the runner-up did the Phillies go? Ideally, you'd only go a little bit beyond the runner-up, especially with a player who had a strong preference to remain in Philadelphia. According to ESPN's Jayson Stark, the Phillies guaranteed the third year and hiked the AAV to get the deal done with Ruiz. If the Phillies were the only team willing to guarantee three years, and it does seem that way, then a hardline stance would have been with a reduced AAV, perhaps around $7.5MM. Something like three years and $23MM was probably possible, which would have made the third year less painful since Ruiz might have approached $20MM on a two-year offer from the Red Sox, Rockies, Blue Jays, or Yankees eventually.
It's easy to say Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. should have played hardball with Ruiz to save $3-4MM, and that might have been possible. Still, Ruiz is worth more to the Phillies because of his familiarity with their pitching staff, and Amaro would have faced limited alternatives had he tried to wait Ruiz out. Brian McCann would have required a much larger commitment, and it appears Jarrod Saltalamacchia will get more than $30MM. McCann, Saltalamacchia, and A.J. Pierzynski all bat left-handed, and the Phillies likely sought a right-handed bat for lineup balance even after signing Marlon Byrd. That basically leaves Dioner Navarro, a switch-hitter who hasn't been a regular since 2009. The trade market is even more questionable, and the Phillies don't have good internal options at catcher. The Phillies paid a premium to lock up Ruiz this early in the offseason, but the contract is still acceptable. The Winter Meetings are still three weeks away, and Amaro has already addressed two major holes in his lineup.
Phillies Sign Shawn Camp
The Phillies signed reliever Shawn Camp to a minor league deal, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Agent Dave Meier represents the righty.
Camp, 38 next week, posted a 7.04 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.74 HR/9, and 48.8% groundball rate in 23 innings for the Cubs this year before getting released in July. He then signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks and posted a 2.42 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and 0.81 HR/9 in 22 1/3 Triple-A frames. In 2012 with the Cubs, Camp tied for the MLB lead with 80 appearances. He was useful that year, compiling a 3.59 ERA. Camp's usage may have taken a toll, as his average fastball velocity dropped from 87.6 miles per hour in 2012 to 86.3 in 2013.
Latest On Brian McCann
The Rangers are pushing hard for free agent catcher Brian McCann, a baseball source tells Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. "They're knocking his door down," said Edes' source.
McCann, MLBTR's fourth-ranked free agent this offseason, is also on the radar of at least the Red Sox and Yankees.
Diamondbacks Interested In Nate Schierholtz
The Diamondbacks have interest in trading for Cubs outfielder Nate Schierholtz, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Schierholtz, 30 in February, smacked 21 home runs in 503 plate appearances for the Cubs this year. In an article Sunday, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic speculated on Schierholtz as a possible fit for the Diamondbacks, who were rumored to have an eye on Cubs righty Jeff Samardzija prior to the trade deadline.
With more than five years of big league service time, Schierholtz is arbitration eligible and under the Cubs' control for one more season. Matt Swartz has projected a $3.8MM salary for 2014, a $1.55MM raise on Schierholtz's 2013 base salary. The Cubs inked Schierholtz to a one-year deal in December of last year after he was non-tendered by the Phillies. They were able to offer him the most playing time of his career while making sure he faced left-handed pitching only 13% of the time. He responded with a .251/.301/.470 line as the Cubs' primary right fielder.
D'Backs GM Kevin Towers has talked about his desire to add a power-hitting corner outfielder. Gerardo Parra seems to have one of the team's outfield spots locked down, with Adam Eaton, A.J. Pollock, and Cody Ross also in the mix. Given Arizona's limited payroll flexibility, Schierholtz could hold extra appeal at less than $4MM.
Amaro Leaning Toward Tendering Contract To Mayberry
Phillies outfielder John Mayberry Jr. has been considered a non-tender candidate in many circles, but even after signing Marlon Byrd, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. seems to be leaning toward retaining him. "He's not a issue for me. We haven't made any final decisions. But I'd view him as a tender," Amaro said today of Mayberry, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Mayberry is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career, having amassed three years and 95 days of big league service time.
Mayberry, 30 in December, hit .227/.286/.391 in 384 plate appearances this year. A right-handed hitter, he has continually shown power against southpaws. Matt Swartz projects him at a $1.7MM salary for 2014. The Phillies' arbitration class also includes Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Ben Revere, and Kevin Frandsen.
MLBTR published its list of non-tender candidates last Thursday.