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Projected Super Two Cutoff Update

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OCTOBER 3rd: Galla tells MLBTR that a few roster moves since CAA's last projection have caused the cutoff to increase by one day to 2.122.  That means Charlie Furbush will not be arbitration eligible, as he's one day short.

SEPTEMBER 5th: Back in April, we learned that based on the research of Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball, the projected Super Two cutoff after the 2013 season was two years and 119 days (written as 2.119).  Now, Galla tells MLBTR that the projection as rosters sit is 2.121.  Likely Super Two players such as Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt, Steve Cishek, and Mike Minor remain unaffected by the change, but those two days matter quite a bit for players on the borderline.  As we mentioned in April, Lance Lynn (2.119) and Felix Doubront (2.120) are very close to the projected cutoff.  Should they fall short of Super Two status, their 2014 salaries will remain a bit above $500K, costing them millions.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible.  Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class.  The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.  Bottom line: Super Two players are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three.  MLBTR will have much more on each team's arbitration eligible players in the coming weeks, including Matt Swartz's salary projections.

Previous Super Two cutoffs:

  • 2012: 2.139
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Mariners are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Smoak's .238/.334/.412 line was about average for a first baseman, which was a big step forward after he'd hit .223/.306/.377 in over 1,400 prior plate appearances.  He struggled mightily against lefties and hasn't shown enough to justify a multiyear extension, but the 26-year-old clearly has a spot on next year's club.  Saunders, also 26 with poor production against southpaws, took a slight step back in 2013.  Even if he's just a fourth outfielder, his first-time arbitration salary is justified.

Charlie Furbush, previously estimated as a Super Two player, appears to fall one day short of the necessary amount of service time.

Assuming Smoak and Saunders are tendered contracts, the Mariners are looking at an estimated $4.8MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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After another rebuilding year in 2013, the Cubs will attempt to change the conversation with a new manager and perhaps veteran additions to fill some of the team's many weak spots until top prospects are ready.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis)

Free Agents

2014 Payroll Obligations For Former Players

The Cubs haven't had a .500 record since 2009, way back when Kevin Gregg was their closer (the first time).  The team's current Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer/Jason McLeod braintrust was hired after the 2011 season.  While they would tell you every season counts, the team has yet to take a win-now approach during the Epstein regime, even with $86MM in new free agent commitments last winter.  For the second consecutive summer, the team's brass shipped out veterans with trade value, including newly-signed ones.

The new regime's record is 127-197, so recently-fired manager Dale Sveum presided over what should be the worst of times.  The Cubs will soon hire their fourth manager in five seasons, prioritizing "managerial or other on-field leadership experience" and "expertise developing young talent."  Joe Girardi, Yankees manager since 2008 and a former Cubs player and Illinois native, has a contract that expires at the end of the month.  Cubs ownership covets him and is poised to offer $4MM or more per season, reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, though they've not yet been granted permission to speak to him and the Yankees made an offer to retain him.  Hiring Girardi would be a sign the team is getting serious about trying to win, as he would not likely be thrilled taking on a team lacking Major League talent.  Manny Acta, Sandy Alomar Jr., A.J. Hinch, and Dave Martinez are other possible candidates, reports Wittenmyer.

In the statement regarding Sveum's firing, Epstein acknowledged the Cubs' biggest issue as a "shortage of talent at the major league level."  This year Cubs position players accounted for just 16.9 wins above replacement, 21st in baseball.  In terms of players controlled beyond this year who provided as least two wins, the list is short: catcher Welington Castillo and part-time third baseman Luis Valbuena.

Notably absent are the Cubs' two biggest Major League building blocks, Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo.  Both players are signed through 2019.  Castro took a big step backward with the bat, hitting .245/.284/.347.  He may never draw walks, but the Cubs will need him to at least return to making better contact and showing moderate power, even if he doesn't develop into a star.  When Castro signed his $60MM extension, he had almost 1,800 big league plate appearances.  Rizzo, however, had fewer than 700.  The only other player to receive $40MM+ with that short of a big league track record is Ryan Braun in 2008.  Playing his first full season this year, Rizzo failed to reach the offensive production of an average first baseman.

The Cubs figure to show patience toward Castro and Rizzo into 2014, while hoping for continued growth from Castillo.  In Javier Baez, however, Castro has one of the game's best prospects pushing him.  Baez may be ready for Major League action by next summer, if he cleans up his defense and perhaps cuts down on his strikeouts.  The best case scenario is a Castro-Baez middle infield tandem, while third base is an option for Baez as well.  Kris Bryant, drafted second overall by the Cubs in June, could also be ready next year, and projects for third base or right field.  Furthering the Cubs' infield depth are Mike Olt, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, Christian Villanueva, acquired in the Ryan Dempster deal, and Arismendy Alcantara.  It's been a lost year for Olt, but overall, the Cubs' infield depth is strong.  Second base may be the biggest short-term need, particularly if Barney is traded or non-tendered.  I don't expect the Cubs to get involved on Robinson Cano, but Omar Infante could be a consideration.  After hitting 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances, Donnie Murphy may have earned himself a contract for 2014 and the initial crack at the hot corner.

The Cubs have a pair of premium outfield prospects in Albert Almora and Jorge Soler.  Neither is Major League ready, however, leaving only Schierholtz locked in for 2014.  Schierholtz provided cheap power against right-handed pitching this year, and perhaps the Cubs will again acquire a right-handed hitting complement like Rajai Davis, Justin Ruggiano, or Kyle Blanks.  An in-house right-handed bat, Junior Lake, could have the inside track on left field after a decent rookie showing following the trade of Alfonso Soriano.  Lake could help in center field, as could Brian Bogusevic.  Minor league signing Ryan Sweeney performed well, though he's a free agent again.  Other center field stopgaps should be explored as well, such as Davis, Ruggiano, Chris Young, and Franklin Gutierrez.  Illinois native Curtis Granderson could make some sense, but a qualifying offer and/or a three-year requirement would likely suppress interest from the Cubs.  The Cubs' long-term outfield plan seems to be in place, though that won't stop agent Scott Boras from pitching free agent Jacoby Ellsbury.  Epstein doesn't need to review Ellsbury's Boras Binder, however, after drafting him in the first round in '05 and watching him blossom into a star in Boston.

The Cubs have traded 40% of their rotation each summer under the Epstein regime, moving Paul Maholm and Dempster in 2012 and Scott Feldman and Garza this year.  Maholm was the only one not in a contract year.  The Cubs continue to wait on a potential return for Maholm, as the recovery period for Arodys Vizcaino's March 2012 Tommy John surgery has taken much longer than expected.  Jake Arrieta, a key piece in the Feldman deal with Baltimore, projects to earn a spot in next year's rotation out of spring training.  Lefty Travis Wood represented the Cubs in the All-Star game this year and has a spot locked down for 2014, as do Jeff Samardzija and Edwin Jackson.

Last winter the Cubs imported an unprecedented four free agent starters, and the depth was needed when Scott Baker's Tommy John recovery stalled and Garza and Feldman were dealt.  I don't think anyone saw the team's flirtation with Anibal Sanchez or four-year deal with Jackson coming last winter.  While Chris Rusin, Justin Grimm, or Carlos Villanueva could take the fifth starter job next year, it seems likely the Cubs will look to add pitching from outside the organization again.  That could mean another go-round with Baker, other one-year projects like Gavin Floyd, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Jason Hammel, Roberto Hernandez, Dan Haren, or Phil Hughes, or multiyear commitments to Scott Kazmir, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jimenez, or Masahiro Tanaka.  David Price will be the prize of the trade market, though two years of control doesn't mesh well with the Cubs' timeline.

In Samardzija, the Cubs could offer up a trade chip with a 95 mile per hour fastball, fresh off a 214 strikeout season.  With a 3.34 ERA over the season's first three months, the 28-year-old appeared to be in the midst of an ace-caliber season.  Samardzija followed that with a 5.47 ERA, however, and in the end mostly replicated his 2012 season with an additional 39 innings.  On the trade market, two years of Samardzija could bring a huge haul, exceeding the well-regarded package the Cubs extracted from the Rangers to rent Garza for a few months.  First the Cubs will explore an extension, which I think could be in the range of the $80MM deals signed by Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander four years prior.  To date, the pitcher and agents Sam Samardzija and Mark Rodgers have not shown a willingness to take a team-friendly deal, and getting closer to free agency should only strengthen their stance.

Among the team's other arbitration eligible players, the Cubs could look to sign Schierholtz or Wood to multiyear deals.  Castillo, who has two years of service, could be a candidate for a team-friendly contract.  Despite a 3.11 ERA this year, the Cubs may be best served waiting on Wood, whose skills suggest more of a 4.50 pitcher.

Even with an out of nowhere 33-save season from Gregg, the Cubs' bullpen ranked 13th in the NL with a 4.04 ERA.  Though the Cubs' Fujikawa signing went bust due to Tommy John surgery, it showed a willingness to spend to solidify the bullpen.  Arbitration eligible lefty James Russell could be a trade candidate; otherwise he'll join holdovers Blake Parker, Strop, and perhaps Grimm and Villanueva.  Hector Rondon will likely be in the mix, and if the Cubs tender a contract to September waiver claim project Daniel Bard, he could become an option as well.  The Cubs will probably bring in a veteran reliever or two from the outside, letting Gregg walk as a free agent after nearly releasing him in September over complaints he made.

Among the Cubs' free agents, aside from Sweeney and perhaps Baker, the team may entertain re-signing backup catcher Dioner Navarro.  Due to the stellar work of Castillo and Navarro, the Cubs ranked fourth in baseball with five wins above replacement at catcher.  They paid just $2.25MM for the pair, but the 29-year-old Navarro may have earned himself another shot at starting with another club.  The Cubs could add a veteran backup to replace him.

Cubs fans have patiently watched for two years as Epstein, Hoyer, McLeod and company rebuilt the team from the ground up.  Fans might allow for one more talent-stockpiling mulligan in 2014, perhaps with the reward of a Baez summer debut.  Expectations for 2015 will be huge, at which point Epstein will have two years remaining on his contract.

Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Astros are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Castro, the tenth overall pick in 2008, put together a breakout campaign this year with 18 home runs, a .350 on-base percentage, and an All-Star nod.  The Astros could look into a team-friendly extension.  Three catchers in Castro's service class have signed three-year deals in the $8-9MM range, though two of them were in 2010.

Crowe, drafted 14th overall by the Indians in '05, signed a minor league deal with the Astros last November.  His contract was purchased in May, but he missed over two months with a shoulder injury.  The 29-year-old outfielder did not impress with the bat, and he received regular playing time with 103 plate appearances in September.  In mid-September, Crowe told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune, "I want to be back next year. I think I'll be back, but we'll see it goes."  While Crowe is a candidate to be non-tendered, he could re-sign on a minor league deal if that happens.

Free Agent Profile: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia was one of the ten most valuable catchers in baseball in 2013, and he had the best overall year of any free agent backstop.  The former first-round draft pick hits free agency with youth on his side.

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Strengths/Pros

Among catchers, Salty is one of the biggest power threats in the game, ranking fifth with 55 home runs since 2011.  He also ranks first in isolated power and third in slugging percentage.  He put up a career-best .466 SLG this year, banging out 54 extra-base hits.  A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia hit .294/.350/.523 against righties this year.

Saltalamacchia's walk rate continued to rise, as his 9.1% this year was his best since 2008.  He hit a career-best .273, and coupled with the walks, his .338 on-base percentage was also his best since '08.  Among catchers with at least 400 plate appearances, Saltalamacchia's .804 OPS ranked sixth in all of baseball, even topping Brian McCann.

Salty is above average at blocking pitches, according to the RPP stat at FanGraphs.  Additionally, his pitch framing skills were worth 23 runs from 2007-11, according to an article by Mike Fast for Baseball Prospectus.  He's seen as the leader of the Boston pitching staff, and has their trust.

Saltalamacchia doesn't turn 29 years old until May, and is one of only a handful of free agents who will be under 30 in 2014.  As agent Jim Munsey pitches Salty on the free agent market, his client's youth is a big asset compared to someone like Carlos Ruiz or A.J. Pierzynski.

Weaknesses/Cons

A switch-hitter, Saltalamacchia struggles mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .206/.269/.338 line since 2011.  In his three years with the Red Sox, they benched him against southpaws only in 2012, when Kelly Shoppach was on board for most of the season.  It's likely Salty would have batted less against lefties this year had backup David Ross not spent 74 days on the DL.  Many players have platoon splits, but Saltalamacchia's is more extreme than other catchers on the free agent market.

Saltalamacchia regularly strikes out in 30% of his plate appearances.  Among all players with 400 plate appearances in 2013, Salty's 29.6% strikeout rate is the ninth-worst.  Of those bottom nine, most hit below .235, and his .273 average does not seem repeatable.  From 2011-12, Saltalamacchia hit .228/.288/.452 across 834 plate appearances, a more reasonable expectation moving forward.  A .290 OBP is below-average even for a catcher; as a group, they're at .310 this year.

Saltalamacchia is below average at throwing out attempting basestealers and preventing them from trying, according to FanGraphs.  His caught stealing percentage of 21.2% was second-to-last among qualified catchers this year.

Saltalamacchia earned $4.5MM this year, so a qualifying offer would triple his salary.  Still, it's likely he'd decline and take his best shot at a multiyear deal elsewhere, even with the loss of leverage from having a draft pick attached.  It's easy enough to justify the loss of a draft pick to sign McCann, but less so for Saltalamacchia, especially with Ruiz and Pierzynski as alternatives.

Personal

Saltalamacchia, who has the longest last name in Major League history at 14 letters, resides in Wellington, Florida with his wife Ashley and daughters Sidney, Hunter Riley, and Sloan.  He received the Good Guy Award from Boston writers after the 2012 season, and serves as a Jimmy Fund co-captain as one of his many charitable contributions.  Jarrod is extremely involved in charitable work, and truly enjoys it.  His hobbies include hunting and fishing, according to the Red Sox media guide.

Saltalamacchia was a key figure in the legendary July 2007 trade that also sent Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, and Matt Harrison from the Braves to the Rangers for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay.  Three years later, he was traded to Boston.

Market

"I don't want to go anywhere else," Saltalamacchia told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May.  Given his familiarity with their pitching and coaching staff, Salty provides extra value for the Red Sox, and it seems likely they'll attempt to retain him.  In the organization, the Red Sox have Blake Swihart, who finished at High-A, Christian Vazquez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, and 26-year-old Ryan Lavarnway, who has played at Triple-A in each of the last three seasons and has caught 58 games in the bigs.  Lavarnway could be the immediate answer, though he slugged just .350 at Triple-A this year, and the pitching staff might not be thrilled throwing regularly to such an inexperienced catcher.  Even if the Sox need to sign a veteran catcher this winter, they seem to have enough depth to limit their offer to Saltalamacchia to three years.

In my Carlos Ruiz free agent profile, I mentioned the Red Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves as potential fits.  Saltalamacchia's struggles against left-handed pitching could give the Phillies pause, while the "bridge appears quite charred in both directions" regarding a potential return to Texas, according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  It's also hard to picture a return to the Braves, who will probably piece something more affordable together assuming McCann leaves.  Though the Jays could look to improve upon J.P. Arencibia, would they replace him with a different high-strikeout, potentially low-OBP catcher like Saltalamacchia, possibly at the expense of their second-round draft pick?  The Yankees are a viable landing spot, though perhaps not at four years.  The White Sox may be a potential dark horse, with potential platoon partners in-house in the form of Tyler Flowers and Josh Phegley.  Free agent alternatives to Saltalamacchia will include McCann, Ruiz, Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro.

Expected Contract

The floor on Saltalamacchia is probably three years and $24MM or so.  ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote he thinks the market will offer Saltalamacchia a four-year deal, perhaps in the range of $10MM per year.  The remaining question is which team would reasonably do so.  Though I've yet to identify a club I think will go four years on Saltalamacchia, I agree that he will eventually find it, and I'm predicting a four-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cubs are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Samardzija is the Cubs' most important arbitration case, in that they are running out of time to extend him as he moves closer to free agency.  Though he didn't improve much this year beyond pitching more innings, extensions for pitchers with four years of Major League service are rare.  Samardzija should be able to get past Matt Harrison's five-year, $55MM deal, and closer to $80MM territory.  If the Cubs can't agree with his agent on his value, he could bring an impressive haul in trade this winter.

Schierholtz, Russell, Wood, Valbuena, and Strop have roles on next year's team, perhaps barring trades of the first two.  Though Wood had something of a breakout season, I don't think there's urgency to give him a $30MM guarantee on a multiyear deal, given lackluster peripheral stats.

We've projected Bard for the same salary he had last year, since reductions are so rare.  The Cubs' September waiver claim of Bard suggests they'll tender him a contract, or at least non-tender and quickly re-sign him for less than the allowable 20% pay cut.  Murphy has generally been deemed expendable by teams, but it would be fair to keep him on the roster after he hit 11 home runs in 163 plate appearances for the Cubs.

Barney won a Gold Glove in 2012 and continued to play strong defense this year.  However, his lack of offensive production dwarfed his defense, resulting in a replacement level season.  A non-tender seems extreme, partially because $2.1MM is acceptable money for a backup.  The Cubs may instead consider trading Barney this winter.  McDonald, a journeyman outfielder, will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

If the Cubs tender contracts to Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Bard, Russell, Valbuena, Strop, and Murphy, they'll be looking at an estimated $21.5MM for nine arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Mets are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.

Much has been written about Davis, who projects for a modest $375K raise after a lost season.  Earlier this month, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com wrote that the team is giving no consideration to non-tendering Davis, though a trade is possible.  Davis, 27 in March, hit 32 home runs in 2012 and would appeal to many teams as a buy-low candidate given a weak free agent market for first basemen.  Rubin has also written about the possibility of the Mets keeping Davis and trading or optioning Duda.

Murphy, Gee, and Parnell had fine seasons for the Mets, and will be bargains at their arbitration salaries.  After leading the NL in stolen bases, Young's roster spot is safe. 

Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner picked up the bulk of the starts at shortstop this year, with Turner backing up at other spots as well.  Tejada, whose season ended with a broken leg, has frustrated the Mets with his attitude and work ethic, as outlined in this article from Jim Baumbach of Newsday.  It does not seem the Mets want to give up on him with a non-tender, but a trade seems possible if they find a better option to start at shortstop.  Given their small salaries, it's possible Quintanilla and Turner both return in backup roles.

Atchison and Baxter failed to impress this year, and there's a good chance they're non-tendered in December.

Trades could thin this group, but if the Mets tender contracts to Murphy, Davis, Gee, Parnell, Young, Duda, Tejada, Quintanilla, and Turner, they're looking at an estimated $22.3MM for nine arbitration eligible players. 

Josh Johnson Has Elbow Surgery; Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Righty Josh Johnson underwent minor elbow surgery this morning to remove bone spurs, agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR.  Dr. James Andrews performed the procedure, telling Johnson he feels the discomfort caused by the spurs was the cause of his struggles with the Blue Jays this year.  No issues were found with Johnson's elbow ligament.  Johnson will be throwing in five weeks, and will be ready for spring training.

Johnson, 30 in January, is eligible for free agency for the first time this offseason.  His season in Toronto did not go as planned, ending in August with the elbow issue.  He made 16 starts, posting a 6.20 ERA despite a good strikeout to walk ratio.

Sosnick, who also represents free agent hurler Ricky Nolasco, tells MLBTR Johnson will absolutely consider signing with the Blue Jays if they do not make a qualifying offer.  Johnson loved playing for manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  A one-year deal with incentives seems likely for Johnson.

Free Agent Profile: Carlos Ruiz

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Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz was a late bloomer, reaching the Majors at age 27 and eventually shaking off the backup label.  He received MVP votes in 2010 and '11 and made his first All-Star team in 2012, but after the '12 season was slapped with a 25-game suspension for testing positive a second time for taking Adderall, which is used to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.  His 2013 season was his least productive since '08, and the man known as Chooch is heading into free agency for the first time.

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Strengths/Pros

Among those who caught at least 250 games from 2010-12, Ruiz is tops in all three slash stats: batting average (.303), on-base percentage (.388), and slugging percentage (.454).  Ruiz was about as good a hitter as Joe Mauer was during that time, and easily better than Yadier Molina, Miguel Montero, Brian McCann, or Matt Wieters.  On a rate basis using weighted on-base average, Ruiz's offense was on par with non-catchers like Billy Butler, Nick Swisher, Carlos Beltran.  He topped Ryan Zimmerman, Dustin Pedroia, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, and many other very good hitters in wOBA during that time.  FanGraphs wins above replacement puts Ruiz's total 2010-12 contribution on par with Wright, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Gonzalez.  Though Ruiz's work went under the radar, he was recognized with MVP votes in each of the 2010, '11, and '12 seasons.

How about 2013?  Ruiz posted a .268/.320/.368 line, so even in a down year, he got on base more often than the typical catcher.  And though it may be arbitrary, agent Marc Kligman can point to a more Chooch-like .288/.343/.444 line over the season's final two months.  A right-handed hitter, Ruiz excelled against lefties to the tune of a .300/.374/.463 line.

Defensively, Ruiz is above average at blocking pitches, according to a stat from Bojan Koprivica.

A qualifying offer is not in the cards for Ruiz, so unlike fellow free agents Brian McCann and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia, he will not cost a draft pick to sign.  Ruiz is a buy-low candidate who would have required a significantly larger contract a year ago prior to the suspension coming off a great season.

Weaknesses/Cons

As mentioned earlier, Ruiz had a down year with the bat, showing below average power for a catcher and falling well below his own recent norms.  Why did Ruiz's batting average, walks, and power take a dive this year?  One way or another, his amphetamine suspension was a factor, most likely in that he started his season a month late without a normal spring training.  It's also possible that he was affected by the pressure from his first contract year.  Ruiz's relative struggles could also simply be age-related decline, as he turned 34 in January.  His 16 home runs in 2012, in particular, appears to have been a fluke or at least something that will not be repeated.

On the defensive side, Ruiz cost the Phillies 23 runs from 2007-11 due to pitch framing, according to a Baseball Prospectus article by Mike Fast.

Ruiz has had a DL trip in each of the past five seasons, missing about 23 days on average.  Teams will have to ask if at age 35 Ruiz will be able to play 115 games or so.  A team signing Ruiz probably needs a better than average backup catcher.

Personal

Ruiz, a native of Panama, has two sons, also named Carlos.  He's a family man who enjoys his horses on his ranch in his native country.

Market

Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and perhaps Dioner Navarro are the other starting catching options on the market.  Pierzynski will be Ruiz's main competition, in the aging backstop bracket, and A.J. took a one-year deal last winter and may again.  According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently said of Ruiz, "We'd like to bring him back.  He knows we'd like to bring him back."  The feeling appears to be mutual, as Ruiz told Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Inquirer he'd like to finish his career with the Phillies.  Ruiz is a fan favorite in Philadelphia and they lack a promising alternative, especially one who can provide right-handed offense.  They re-upped Chase Utley for a minimum two-year, $27MM guarantee covering his age 35-36 seasons, and Kligman could use that deal as a frame of reference.  If things don't work out with the Phillies, the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, and Braves could be fits for Ruiz.

Expected Contract

Ruiz signed a multiyear deal in January 2010 and ended up earning just $8.35MM for this three arbitration years.  According to FanGraphs, his production from 2010-12 was worth $53.1MM.  Since at least six years of Major League service is required for free agency, the timing often doesn't work well for late bloomers, and Ruiz may already be nearing the downswing of his career.  Given the offense Ruiz provided as recently as 2012, he'll be a popular buy-low candidate on a one-year deal.  I imagine Kligman will shake off references to Pierzynski's contract, however, initially aiming for a three-year deal.  Ruiz's ceiling is probably Russell Martin's two-year, $17MM deal.  Martin was coming off a better year and was five years younger, so it will be a difficult benchmark to pass.  In the end I think Ruiz will sign a two-year, $14MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: Miami Marlins

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Marlins kick off our series for 2014.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows that.

Even at less than $5MM, Stanton projects as the Marlins' highest-paid player in 2014.  If they decide to trade him this winter, it won't be because they can't afford the slugger, who remains under control through 2016.  Cishek, who projects to go through arbitration four times as a Super Two, gets a solid first-time salary in large part due to 52 career saves.

Slowey won a rotation spot out of spring training after signing a minor league deal, and looked great through his first seven starts.  By June he was sent to the bullpen, however, and in July hit the DL with a forearm strain.  He made his last appearance on July 25th.  While $1.8MM is not a terribly prohibitive salary, the Marlins may prefer other options and could non-tender Slowey by the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Ruggiano set a career-high with 472 plate appearances, but he disappointed offensively with a .222/.298/.396 line.  He could draw trade interest as a lefty-masher who can help in center field, in advance of the non-tender deadline.  Former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan initially formed the other part of a center field platoon with Ruggiano, but missed almost three months with back and calf injuries.  He logged some innings at third base upon his September return.  Coghlan hit .277/.326/.415 before his injury, and he's still cheap, which may be enough to convince the Marlins to tender him a contract.  Backup catcher Koyie Hill didn't return to the Majors until August, and is probably not long for the team's 40-man roster.

Assuming Stanton, Cishek, Morrison, Webb, Dunn, and Coghlan are retained, the Marlins are looking at an estimated $13.4MM for six arbitration eligible players.

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