Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

Free Agent Profile: Mike Napoli

By Tim Dierkes | September 30, 2013 at 4:06pm CDT

A three-year, $39MM guarantee with the Red Sox for slugger Mike Napoli was renegotiated all the way down to a one-year, $5MM contract in the course of about two months during the offseason, as a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips. The degenerative condition, which came as a surprise to Napoli, was caught early and has not affected his play to date. Napoli avoided the DL this year, earning $8MM in incentives to bring his 2013 earnings to the same $13MM average annual value from his original three-year contract. Now, he's eligible to return to the free agent market coming off a fine season.

Strengths/Pros

Napoli is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market, as he leads all qualified free agents in isolated power. He's tied for sixth among all free agents with 23 home runs and is fourth in slugging at .482, assuming Adam Lind's option is picked up. Napoli is one of just ten players to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the 2008-13 seasons.

A right-handed hitter, Napoli's on-base percentage is boosted by a strong career walk rate of 12%. This year, his .360 OBP ranks third among qualified free agents. If you're looking for offense from a right-handed hitter, Napoli is one of the best 15 bats in the game right now.

We don't take much stock in RBI here at MLBTR, but it may help Napoli's bargaining position that he ranks second among free agents with 92 knocked in. The player ranked above him, Robinson Cano, will require a much larger commitment.

Formerly a catcher, Napoli proved this year he can play an acceptable first base, logging nearly 1,100 innings at the position with strong grades from UZR/150 (+13.3) and The Fielding Bible (+10).

Napoli comes with a reputation as a winner, as this year will mark his sixth postseason out of eight total seasons. He was a big performer for the Rangers in 2011, driving in 15 runs in 17 games.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Napoli's AVN has not affected his play or caused him to miss time to date, the Red Sox were concerned enough about the condition to reduce their offer to one guaranteed year at less than 40% of the original salary. Napoli was back on the open market during the seven-plus weeks his contract was being renegotiated, and while agent Brian Grieper praised his client for his loyalty, it's likely other interested teams shared Boston's concern and didn't offer significantly more.

Napoli has proven his health to the extent possible this year by setting a career best in plate appearances with 578 in the regular season. It's difficult to project his playing time in the future, however, since he was previously a catcher and has now been diagnosed with AVN. Napoli had more than his fair share of separate injuries, with 53 DL days in '07, 32 in '08, 22 in '11, and 35 in '12. These injuries, involving his ankle, hamstring, shoulder, oblique, and quad, may have been related to time spent at catcher, but his history dates back to the minors. Any team considering a multiyear offer has to take the entire injury history into account.

Napoli struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, worst among all qualified free agents. Mark Reynolds and Marlon Byrd are the only other two to even top 20%. Napoli's strikeouts, which have increased in the past two years, are a big reason why he's hitting .246 since 2012. Given his walk rate, it still makes for a strong OBP, but if he bats .240 and walks dip to his 2009-10 level, his OBP will no longer be an asset. Additionally, as you would expect from a former catcher, Napoli's baserunning is below average.

I mentioned earlier that Napoli leads all free agents in isolated power, but his .223 mark is actually his worst since 2009. Given his previous production and career high in plate appearances, I would have expected Napoli to have over 30 home runs at this point rather than 23.

The Rangers chose not to tender Napoli a $13.3MM qualifying offer after the 2012 season, but with a healthier campign and their recent preference for short-term deals, the Red Sox are likely to make the $14MM qualifying offer five days after the World Series ends. Napoli is the type of player the system hurts the most: one who is good but not great, and doesn't have the youth of a B.J. Upton. With the cost of a first or even second round draft pick, a few teams could lose interest in Napoli.

Personal

Mike resides in Pembroke Pines, Florida. He values time with his family, and even has his mother's name, Donna Rose, tattooed on his arm. Mike is a big fan of the NFL and college football, particularly the University of Miami.

Market

It would be reasonable for the Red Sox to try to bring Napoli back, and a qualifying offer or the threat of one gives them some leverage. We've seen them tangle with David Ortiz in this type of situation, with Ortiz accepting arbitration after the 2011 season and getting a two-year deal done last November with a qualifying offer in hand, before hitting the open market. The Red Sox were willing to offer Napoli three years and $39MM to sign him off the open market last winter before the AVN revelation, but they honed in on him, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Stephen Drew in part they would not cost a draft pick. The Sox liked the two-year, $26MM price enough on Ortiz to forgo the chance at draft pick compensation for him, and I wonder if two years might be their limit on Napoli. On the other hand, they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Draft pick compensation will affect Napoli on the open market if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. Still, teams like the Twins, Rockies, and Mets, with protected first round draft picks and openings at first base, seem like good fits. Napoli has the advantage of a very weak free agent market for first basemen. Kendrys Morales is more of a DH, and could be dragging around a qualifying offer as well. Otherwise the options are Corey Hart, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Paul Konerko. As one commenter notes below, the wild card in the first base market is Jose Dariel Abreu, the Cuban slugger in whom the Red Sox may have interest.

Expected Contract

I think a qualifying offer can knock a year off a player's contract, as it seemingly did with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, so two years and $28MM is the floor for Napoli. Ultimately I predict Napoli will land a three-year, $42MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Nate McLouth

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2013 at 8:25pm CDT

Outfielder Nate McLouth signed a one-year, $1.75MM deal to return to the Pirates in December 2011, with a fourth outfielder role in mind after several years of struggles in Atlanta. He hit a low point at the end of May last year, as the Bucs released him. McLouth quickly signed a minor league deal with the Orioles, and played 47 games for their Triple-A affiliate before earning a call back to the bigs. At just 236 plate appearances, the sample was limited, but McLouth helped the Orioles reach the postseason and was their best hitter in the division series.

McLouth focused on a one-year deal on the free agent market, avoiding an option year but re-signing with the Orioles for just $2MM plus incentives. He's served as the team's primary left fielder and leadoff hitter in 2013, and has put together a solid campaign over a larger sample.

Strengths/Pros

McLouth is respectable at drawing walks, with a 9% rate this year that is a tick above average for a left fielder. This year it has led to a .332 on-base percentage, also better than average for the position. A left-handed hitter, McLouth hit righties pretty well this year at a .275/.346/.416 clip.

McLouth also adds value on the basepaths. He has an 84.9% career success rate in stolen bases, and is tied for ninth in the AL with 30 swipes this year. Among those with at least 800 plate appearances and 30 stolen base attempts since 2012, McLouth's 84% success rate ranks ninth in baseball. More importantly, FanGraphs' baserunning statistics, which cover more than just steals, suggest McLouth has added 6.2 runs on the bases this year. That's tied for the 11th-best baserunning contribution in the game this year.

McLouth has spent most of his time in left field the last two years, but he can handle center in a pinch and even won a somewhat controversial Gold Glove for his play there in 2008.

Overall this year, FanGraphs pegs McLouth at 2.4 wins above replacement. That's fifth among free agent outfielders, assuming Coco Crisp's option will be exercised. McLouth is earning about 15% of Carlos Beltran's salary, but if you agree with the penalty given to Beltran by defensive stats, the two players have been roughly equally valuable in 2013. The free agent market still veers toward baseball card numbers, so Beltran's 24 home runs and 84 RBI will serve him well and could result in a qualifying offer. McLouth's value is less obvious, creating a potential free agent bargain even with a raise. And a qualifying offer will not be a factor.

Weaknesses/Cons

McLouth does not hit left-handed pitching well, with a .196/.287/.304 line since 2011. The Orioles have benched him accordingly against some southpaws, so he's faced lefties in only 21.7% of his plate appearances this year rather than the typical 26-30%. A team signing McLouth will need to have a right-handed hitting left fielder on hand as a platoon partner.

McLouth should be used sparingly in center field, as his defensive numbers suggest he's well below average at the position. The average left fielder has a weighted on-base average of .317 this year, not far from McLouth's .325. He has a little bit of pop, but doesn't fit the power profile of a left fielder. A team might have to find power at an atypical position to compensate.

McLouth has been worth more than two wins above replacement this year, the first time he's been worth even one full win in a season since 2009. His sample as a productive outfielder has grown, but he has to shake off an even larger sample of being replacement level. And this may be cherry-picking, but since a huge April, McLouth has hit just .245/.309/.382.

Personal

Born in Michigan, Nate resides with his wife Lindsay in Knoxville, Tennessee. McLouth is a deeply religious person who has overcome adversity in his career, as explained in this article a year ago by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.

Market

The Orioles aren't brimming with alternatives to replace McLouth, and will have to turn to the free agent and trade markets if they don't re-sign him. Nolan Reimold has been hampered by injuries for two years, and may be non-tendered. Prospects L.J. Hoes and Xavier Avery were traded this summer, leaving Henry Urrutia as the main internal option. Since McLouth could assume more of an above-average, oft-used fourth outfielder role, he could boost the depth of many clubs.

Expected Contract

As a short-side platoon bat with little defensive ability, Jonny Gomes set the bar last winter with a two-year, $10MM deal. Part-timers such as Scott Hairston, Ty Wigginton, and Jack Hannahan also received two years. Another good example is David DeJesus, who was signed to a two-year, $10MM deal with a club option by the Cubs as an outfielder who would be benched against many southpaws. Ultimately I think McLouth will land that same two-year, $10MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Which Players Will Receive A Qualifying Offer?

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2013 at 11:29am CDT

Last offseason, nine players received qualifying offers worth $13.3MM. At least two more would have been likely to receive one had they not been deemed ineligible due to midseason trades. A qualifying offer, if turned down, enables the team losing the free agent to receive a draft pick as compensation. We haven't seen a player accept a qualifying offer yet, but the process is still in its infancy. I've estimated the qualifying offer amount at around $14MM for the 2013-14 offseason. Below, I've drafted an inclusive list of candidates to receive one on the fifth day after the World Series ends this year. In today's poll, please check all whom you expect to receive a qualifying offer. You can click here to view the results.

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Free Agent Profile: Brian McCann

By Tim Dierkes | September 26, 2013 at 7:47am CDT

If you're looking for a power-hitting catcher, there's no better choice than Brian McCann. McCann has played eight full seasons in the Majors, ranking worse than third in home runs at the position only one time. He's averaged 21 bombs per year, and he has 20 this year even though his season didn't begin until May.

Strengths/Pros

McCann is a bona fide middle of the order bat, at a position for which a .246/.311/.390 line qualifies as average. His career batting line is .277/.350/.474, which is not far from what he's accomplished in 2013. Along with the big-time power, McCann can also draw a walk, with a career rate of 9.5%.

How many free agents will hit the market coming off a 20 home run campaign? Assuming club options are picked up on Coco Crisp and Adam Lind, just 11 players including McCann will manage the feat. Of those 11, only McCann and Robinson Cano play an up-the-middle position, if we don't consider Shin-Soo Choo a center fielder. Like Cano, McCann provides offense at a position not known for it.

McCann won't turn 30 until February, so he's the youngest prominent free agent bat.

Defensively, FanGraphs has numbers calculated by The Fielding Bible, as well as Hardball Times contributor Bojan Koprivica, suggesting McCann is about league average at throwing out potential base stealers and preventing them from trying, and he is above average at blocking pitches. McCann appears to add significant value by virtue of his pitch framing ability. In May, Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus wrote, "McCann’s framing skill has saved the Braves almost 125 runs over the past five seasons." McCann's ability to handle a pitching staff is hard to quantify, but reports are positive.

Weaknesses/Cons

The big concern heading into this season was McCann's shoulder. He played through shoulder pain in 2012, receiving cortisone shots in August and September. McCann had surgery in October to repair a torn labrum, and the Braves had enough faith to pick up his $12MM option for 2013 a few days later. He made his season debut on May 6th and would hit six home runs that month. McCann's continued health and strong play seems to have quieted concerns about the shoulder, as he garnered his seventh All-Star nod this year.

A left-handed hitter, McCann hasn't done much against southpaws recently. Since 2012, he's batting .234/.271/.379 against lefties.

McCann has caught over 8,800 regular season innings in his career, and caution is required when throwing big money at a catcher in his 30s. Former Marlins catcher Charles Johnson rates high on McCann's list of Baseball Reference comparables, and Johnson also caught over 7,000 innings before age 30. Once he reached 30, Johnson had only 300 games left in the Majors. Johnson did not have the luxury of the designated hitter, as McCann might, but the offensive bar to be an above average DH or first baseman is higher than at catcher. McCann's market won't be limited to American League teams, but he'll be a much easier sell if DH is an option in the latter part of the contract.

McCann is likely to receive and turn down a qualifying offer, in which case he will come with the added cost of a first or second round draft pick.

Personal

Brian married his high school sweetheart Ashley, and they reside in Suwanee, Georgia with their son and new baby girl. Brian is known as a family man. The family supports the Rally Foundation, which aims to find better treatments of childhood cancer. Brian's older brother Brad reached Double-A in the Marlins organization, and their father, Howard, coached baseball at Marshall University. In the clubhouse, Brian is a team leader who is beloved by teammates and fans.

Market

There is sentiment among baseball executives and agents that McCann will be best served going to the American League, allowing him to spend an increasing number of games at designated hitter as the contract progresses. On the other hand, free agent signings are about short-term gain, and McCann is a capable backstop at present. For NL teams, there's always the option of McCann learning first base if catching becomes untenable. I imagine an NL team would seek a shorter term at a higher average annual value.

The Rangers have tried to acquire McCann via trade in the past, and they're the early speculative favorite. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Phillies, and Dodgers also seem like viable options.

What are the odds McCann signs a new deal with his hometown Braves, the only organization he's ever known? If the slugger tells agent B.B. Abbott to get him the best possible contract, I think he's likely to move on.

In terms of other starting catchers on the free agent market, there's Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, and maybe Dioner Navarro. That's actually a better selection than in recent years. As far as power bats in general, there's Cano, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli, Marlon Byrd, Raul Ibanez, Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran, Curtis Granderson, Kendrys Morales, and Choo.

Expected Contract

It's difficult to determine whether McCann will get a fifth guaranteed year. In recent offseasons, position players B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, and Carl Crawford managed the feat. None of those players are catchers, nor is McCann a superstar like some of them were. A team could plan to move him off catcher at the tail end of the deal, but the wear of nearly 9,000 innings behind the dish has already been exacted on McCann's body, and raises durability questions for the future.

The Werth contract aside, I think a fair average annual value for a very good player who is not a superstar is around $16-17MM. Ultimately I expect McCann to sign a five-year, $80MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Paul Maholm

By Tim Dierkes | September 23, 2013 at 3:36pm CDT

April seems like ages ago. Braves lefty Paul Maholm was unscored upon in his first three starts that month to kick off the season, at which point I noted that a 3.90 ERA moving forward would put him at 3.50 overall, and position him for a three-year deal even after declining a qualifying offer. Maholm, however, posted a 5.16 ERA over his next 22 starts, suppressing optimism for his first big free agent payday.

Strengths/Pros

At times, Maholm has shown the ability to rack up around 190 innings with an ERA under 4.00. That has real value, and aside from handedness, Maholm's profile isn't drastically different from that of Scott Feldman. And if certain teams are focused on southpaw starters this winter, Maholm is right near the top of the free agent list.

One of Maholm's greatest attributes is his ability to generate groundballs. His 51.8% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among free agent starters with at least 100 innings. On a related note, the lefty has been respectable at keeping the ball in the yard, with a 0.81 HR/9 since 2008 and nothing higher than this year's 0.99 in that span.

Maholm has been very good against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .219/.287/.317 line in his career. His peripherals against them are sparkling: 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.51 HR/9, and a 3.21 xFIP.

A qualifying offer from the Braves is not expected, so Maholm should not come with draft pick compensation attached.

Weaknesses/Cons

Maholm is a pitch-to-contact type, with a career strikeout rate of 5.7 per nine innings. He's allowed ten hits or more per nine innings in numerous seasons, including this one. SIERA suggests an ERA in the low to mid-4.00s is a reasonable expectation. Perhaps due to the vagaries of batting average on balls in play, Maholm has three seasons with an ERA under 4.00 and two with an ERA over 5.00, out of eight total. Putting a good defense behind him is key.

Upside is limited with Maholm. If all goes well, you'll get 190 innings with an ERA a touch under 4.00, but there is some downside on the other end. Maholm's ERA is up to 4.44 at the moment, but perhaps some of his July struggles can be attributed to trying to pitch through a seemingly minor injury.

Can Maholm be considered an innings guy? He'll finish with around 152 this year, and had an abbreviated contract year in 2011 as well with 162 1/3. Other times, Maholm has reached the 180-200 range expected of a starter signed to eat innings, including 189 in 2012. This year, a left wrist injury suffered on a swing cost him a month, and he also missed one start in September with elbow soreness. The elbow MRI showed no structural damage, but agent Bo McKinnis will still have to explain that to interested parties this winter. Back in '11, Maholm's season ended on August 17th due to a shoulder strain, limiting free agent interest. This year's injuries have been more minor, plus Maholm has the opportunity to finish the regular season on a healthy note on Wednesday against the Brewers.

Personal

Maholm lives with his wife Jessica and son Wyatt in Hattiesburg, Mississippi during the offseason, according to the Braves media guide, and he grew up a Braves fan. Paul was in the prestigious PGA Golf Management Program at Mississippi State University, the only major that requires a certain golf handicap.

Market

Perhaps Maholm will first explore the idea of remaining with the Braves, who also have Tim Hudson eligible for free agency. The Braves have the pitchers to fill out a young rotation without either veteran, but with uncertainty around Brandon Beachy's elbow, it would be wise to sign at least one veteran hurler. Given Hudson's tenure with the Braves, it seems likely they would address his situation first. The two contracts Maholm has signed have been with Midwest teams, the Pirates and Cubs, so perhaps he'll turn to the NL Central again if the Braves don't work out.

Expected Contract

After the 2011 season, I considered Maholm the ninth-best free agent starter, and expected him to land a multiyear deal despite his season ending early due to a shoulder strain. His first free agent experience lasted until January 10th, however, and he received just a one-year, $4.75MM guarantee from the Cubs, with a club option. A club option is never ideal for the player, and the Braves picked up Maholm's for 2013 after he finished one of his finest seasons. Even though the 2011 shoulder injury didn't linger for Maholm beyond that season, finishing on the DL really hurts a pitcher's market, and he won't have to deal with that this time.

While I once thought Maholm was a good bet for three guaranteed years, that seems unlikely now. As I've mentioned before, the bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is pretty low, with recent examples like Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia. MLBTR's Steve Adams has pointed out the importance of timing, as the two-year offers tend to dry up come January. Last offseason, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Brett Myers were left standing without a multiyear chair, as Maholm was two winters ago. Though the top end of the free agent market for starters is weak this offseason, there are plenty of hurlers in Maholm's class, such as Feldman, Jason Vargas, Roberto Hernandez, Phil Hughes, Chris Capuano, Jason Hammel, and Saunders.

While Maholm could reach as high as two years and $14MM, ultimately I think the southpaw will sign a one-year, $7MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Scott Kazmir

By Tim Dierkes | September 21, 2013 at 10:17am CDT

Nine months ago, Scott Kazmir could not find a team willing to give him a Major League contract. After all, the former phenom pitched (poorly) for the Sugarland Skeeters in 2012 and hadn't had big league success since 2008. However, Kazmir's rise from the ashes began with rediscovered velocity in a bullpen session behind his house last summer, as chronicled by Howard Megdal of Sports on Earth, and now he's probably one of the 15 best free agent starting pitchers available.

Strengths/Pros

Kazmir doesn't turn 30 years old until January, so by free agent standards he's still young. His velocity has returned: he's averaging 92.5 miles per hour on his fastball, his best since his rookie season. His fastball velocity is tied for fifth among all free agent starters, and only seven southpaw starters throw harder in all of baseball. This year he's whiffed nearly 23% of the batters he's faced, a figure only three free agents have topped.

Additionally, this is the first year in his career Kazmir has walked fewer than three per nine innings. The combination of strikeouts and control leads ERA estimator SIERA to peg him at 3.62, fourth best among free agent starters.

While Kazmir has put together a nice season, it's difficult to picture the Indians making a qualifying offer and risking a one-year, $14MM deal. If they don't make such an offer, Kazmir will not be tied to draft pick compensation.

Weaknesses/Cons

Kazmir will likely finish the season with fewer than 160 innings, unless the Indians make the playoffs. Though he earned the Indians' fifth starter job out of spring training, a right rib cage strain delayed his return to the Majors until April 20th. Kazmir's innings total is also held down by his inability to go deep into games, as he's averaged about 5.4 frames per start. He's averaged 17.5 pitches per inning, the 11th-highest in baseball for those with 100 innings. He's also had some health scares earlier in his career, with DL time in '06 for shoulder inflammation and in '08 for an elbow strain.

The bigger issue is how unlikely Kazmir's story has been. Years of data suggested he wasn't a Major League pitcher, and now he'll require a multimillion dollar commitment on the strength of 156 innings or so. What if his velocity disappears again? What if his arm responds poorly to the innings jump he made in 2013? Any team signing Kazmir is taking a leap of faith.

2013 hasn't been a flawless year, anyway, as Kazmir has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has allowed 1.18 home runs per nine innings. Generally I shrug off a .320 batting average on balls in play and a 12.3% home run per flyball rate, but those things did happen, and Kazmir's actual ERA is 4.34.

Personal

Kazmir grew up idolizing Nolan Ryan and later patterned himself after Billy Wagner, according to JockBio.com. Kazmir's father worked for a Texas welding supply company run by Adam Dunn's uncle, and the two future big leaguers sometimes played Wiffle ball together, reported Albert Chen of SI.com. Drafted 15th overall by the Mets in 2002, Kazmir was traded to the Rays in '04 for Victor Zambrano in an infamously lopsided deal.

Market

"I would love to stay here," Kazmir told Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer this month in regard to re-signing with the Indians, adding, "I'm very interested…I'd love to contribute and continue to be with this group." The Indians also have to determine the future of Ubaldo Jimenez, another coveted free agent starter.

Kazmir has earned over $30MM in his career, mostly by virtue of a 2008 three-year extension signed with the Rays. It's too early to say whether he'll opt for the comfort of Cleveland, where he resurrected his career, or try to find the largest and longest contract possible on the open market given the uncertainty he faced over the last several years. Kazmir is a Houston native, but it's unclear whether geography will be a factor in free agency.

Expected Contract

The bar for a two-year contract for a starting pitcher is not terribly high — Brandon McCarthy, Joe Blanton, Carlos Villanueva, and Kevin Correia reached it last offseason. That third year can be hard to come by, and if Kazmir's main goal is security, perhaps a vesting option could be brokered by agent Brian Peters. If Kazmir is simply trying to maximize his earnings and has faith in his rediscovered ability, he might prefer a one-year deal in the $8-10MM range, allowing him to further prove himself in 2014 before returning to free agency.

In the end, I expect Kazmir to sign a two-year, $16MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Bronson Arroyo

By Tim Dierkes | September 18, 2013 at 4:45pm CDT

Barring an injury in the next 12 days, Bronson Arroyo will be the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005 to present. Even Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Buehrle can't make that claim. Arroyo, 37 in February, came into his own after a March 2006 trade from the Red Sox to the Reds, but during that time he's never hit the open market as a free agent despite never getting a guarantee exceeding three years.

Strengths/Pros

When you hear a pitcher praised for "taking the ball every fifth day," that doesn't mean that he literally never misses a turn in the rotation. But that truly can be said for the rubber-armed Arroyo, as explained above. Not only does Arroyo make all of his starts, but he's good for six-plus innings each time out. He projects for about 205 innings this year, right around his recent annual average. Arroyo will likely be joined by only Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco, and Hiroki Kuroda as 200-inning free agent pitchers.

Arroyo doesn't just take the ball; he adds positive value. He'll likely finish with a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his last five seasons, and it's down to 3.56 at the moment. We recently extolled the virtues of Nolasco's walk rates, but Arroyo's is even better. In fact, only Cliff Lee and Haren have walked fewer batters per nine innings since 2011.

We'll reference Arroyo's age as a negative in free agency, but the fact that he'll pitch at 37 next year is the reason he can expect a two-year deal at best. Signing Arroyo lacks upside, but one or two years for him seems safer than four for Matt Garza. As for a qualifying offer? I doubt Arroyo gets one, as the perenially budget-conscious Reds won't want to risk paying him $14MM next year, even if he says he wants a multiyear deal.

Arroyo is also solid defensively, having picked up a Gold Glove award in 2010.

Weaknesses/Cons

It's always scary to give decent money to a guy with an 87 mile per hour fastball, with the concern that he'll lose another tick of velocity and start throwing batting practice. He's got one of the lowest swinging-strike rates in the free agent class. Arroyo is a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact hurler, and he's had multiple years where he's allowed around ten hits per nine innings. When that happens, it results in a lot of baserunners even with a low walk rate. On top of that, Arroyo is mostly a flyball pitcher, so he's relatively prone to the longball.

Arroyo also lacks upside; it's easier to picture Garza, Tim Lincecum, Masahiro Tanaka, or even Scott Kazmir and Phil Hughes ascending (or returning) to the heights of a front of the rotation Major League starter.

Arroyo has a history of avoiding injury, but how many 37-year-olds have reached 200 innings in recent years? If we include Kuroda for 2013, it has happened only four times in the last five seasons: two seasons from Kuroda, and two from R.A. Dickey.

Personal

Arroyo is an accomplished musician, putting out a CD in '05 and performing in concert at various functions regularly. He's a four-time winner of the Reds' Joe Nuxhall Good Guy Award.

Market

As the Reds' longest-tenured player, Arroyo's first choice is to stay, but it's less likely if they don't offer multiple years. Back in January 2011, Arroyo told Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald the other two teams he'd be interested in pitching for are the Rays (he resides in Florida in the offseason) and the Red Sox (his former team). It is difficult to picture either AL team offering Arroyo a multiyear deal, however.

Expected Contract

Arroyo made it clear earlier this month he considers this his final shot at a multiyear deal. I think there is a chance of a two-year offer, along the lines of Ryan Dempster's $26.5MM contract. In the end I predict a two-year, $24MM contract for Arroyo.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Roberto Hernandez

By Tim Dierkes | September 17, 2013 at 6:51pm CDT

In his first full season in 2007, Indians starter Fausto Carmona finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting. After some ups and downs, he seemed settled in as a mid-rotation arm with some upside, until he was arrested in January 2012 in the Dominican Republic for using a false identity. Carmona, now known as Roberto Hernandez, was found to be three years older than originally believed. After a brief return to the Indians, the Rays swooped in and signed him for a meager $3.25MM guarantee on a one-year deal this past offseason.

Strengths/Pros

Among qualified pitchers, Hernandez ranks sixth in baseball with a 53.1% groundball rate. And that's down from Hernandez's groundballing peak, as he was above 63% in 2007-08. A high groundball rate is almost never a bad thing, but we'll elaborate later in the post.

Hernandez has exhibited strong control this year with a 2.1 BB/9, a career best. He's also authoring a career-best strikeout rate at 6.8 per nine. The resulting 3.23 K/BB ratio ranks seventh among free agent starters.

The ERA estimator SIERA suggests the skills Hernandez has displayed this year are good for a 3.58 mark. Among free agents, only A.J. Burnett and Dan Haren have done better in this regard, and Hernandez bests pitchers such as Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Tim Lincecum, Hiroki Kuroda, Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Bronson Arroyo, who will all receive larger commitments.

It is impossible to picture the Rays extending a qualifying offer to Hernandez, so he won't come with draft pick compensation issues like Santana, Kuroda, and perhaps Lincecum.

Weaknesses/Cons

If you're a believer in the predictive value of ERA, you won't be inspired by Hernandez's 4.89 figure this season. It's hard to defend a pretty K/BB ratio as a pitcher gets battered — for example, Hernandez allowed four runs on ten hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Tigers on June 6th, and he doesn't get extra credit for striking out six and walking one that day. Hernandez has allowed nearly ten hits per nine innings this year, which stands out even if we quietly note his slightly elevated .309 batting average on balls in play.

We also have to talk about home runs allowed. In theory, keeping the ball in the yard should be among Hernandez's biggest strengths, since he gets so many groundballs. In reality, he's allowed 1.28 home runs per nine innings in 352 frames since 2011. This year, he's at 1.45 — third worst in the game among qualified starters. A whopping 21% of Hernandez's flyballs have cleared the fence, twice the MLB average this year. Nearly a quarter of the flyballs hit against Hernandez by left-handed batters have gone for home runs this year. While it's fairly safe to assume Hernandez won't reach those heights again in 2014, it's also fair to say he's worse than the average pitcher at keeping flyballs in the yard, and the ERA estimators are giving him too much credit.

Hernandez was a member of one of the game's deepest rotations, and was demoted to the bullpen in September with the Rays having better options. Even if he might still be in the rotation for many other clubs, it's not a good development for a pitcher heading back into free agency.

Personal

Hernandez has three brothers and three sisters, according to the Rays' media guide, and spent part of the offseason working with the cattle at his family's farm in the Dominican Republic. He's in touch with nature, doing much of his offseason running in the mountains near the farm. Hernandez is married, with three children.

Market

It's too early to pin down potential suitors for Hernandez, as there are a large number of teams that could plug him into the back end of their rotation on the cheap. He reportedly drew interest from at least five teams last offseason. Hernandez seems like a free agent who could sign in January, after the bigger names are off the board. For certain clubs with weak rotations, he could be a big fish in a small pond. From what we've heard, Hernandez has his mind set on returning to a starting role in 2014.

Expected Contract

Despite his struggles, Hernandez is in better shape than he was a year ago, when he barely pitched due to his identity fraud situation. Agent Charisse Espinosa-Dash will likely set out seeking two guaranteed years, and I view the two-year, $10MM deals signed by Carlos Villanueva, Kevin Correia, and Chris Capuano as Hernandez's ceiling. Back in May, when it seemed likely his home run per flyball rate would come down, I pictured a Brandon McCarthy/Joe Blanton-type contract in the two-year, $16MM range. Ultimately, since Hernandez will pitch at 33 next year and didn't finish strong, I predict a one-year, $5MM contract, plus incentives.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free $1000 Fantasy Football Contest From DraftStreet

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2013 at 11:00pm CDT

Looking to show off your fantasy football genius this week? Try DraftStreet, where you can put together a new fantasy team each week and compete against other users for real money.

Right now DraftStreet has an NFL freeroll for MLB Trade Rumors readers, meaning you can take a shot at a chunk of the $1000 prize pool for free, with no strings attached. The large prize pool has me excited to follow along, and the top 100 get paid. Here's how it works.

The NFL freeroll begins Sunday at 1:00pm eastern time, so you have until then to create your team. You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet. Your roster will cover these positions: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, and 1 Defense. You get points based on how your team performs through Monday night's game. The teams with the most points get the prize money. It's extremely easy to put together a team. Below is a screenshot of my roster in progress:

If you're interested, sign up and create a roster prior to Sunday's games (1:00pm eastern time). It's quick, easy, fun, and the MLBTR league gives you a free chance to win some of the $1,000 prize pool. If you enjoy the competition you can try other leagues (college football, for example) for free and earn credits, or deposit real money.

Free Agent Profile: Ricky Nolasco

By Tim Dierkes | September 12, 2013 at 12:54pm CDT

As the team most likely to take on the $5.5MM remaining on Ricky Nolasco's contract, the Dodgers were seen as the trade market frontrunners leading up to their July 6th acquisition of the pitcher from the Marlins. The Marlins failed to receive top-tier prospects, and even threw in international pool money for the Dodgers. None of that came as a big surprise, not just because the Marlins like to save money, but because as ESPN's Keith Law put it, Nolasco was a "durable fourth starter type" who had a 3.85 ERA at the time.

Free agency has a large "what have you done for me lately" element, and it seems that Nolasco's 2.07 ERA in 74 innings with the Dodgers has changed the conversation about him from salary dump to coveted potential top ten free agent.

Strengths/Pros

Nolasco won't turn 31 until December. Comparable free agents like Ervin Santana and Scott Feldman are the same age, and these pitchers are young enough to justify a three-year deal.

One of Nolasco's biggest strengths is avoiding the free pass. Since 2011, he's walked only 2.05 batters per nine innings, which ranks 14th among starting pitchers with at least 400 innings. Five free agent starters have done better, the youngest of whom is Dan Haren, who turns 33 next week. On a related note, Nolasco has authored four seasons in his career with a K/BB ratio above 3.5, including this one. Only three free agent starters have a better K/BB ratio than Nolasco this year.

Nolasco also scores points for durability, as he'll have made at least 31 regular season starts in each of the last three seasons. Only four other free agent starters will be able to make the same claim. Says agent Matt Sosnick, "It's been my experience that guys get paid for being healthy consistently every year."

You may not buy into it, but Sosnick will also make the claim that finally getting out of Miami rejuvenated his client's career. Nolasco's 2.07 ERA since July 6th ranks fifth in all of baseball, putting him in company with teammates Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw and former teammate Jose Fernandez (Jarred Cosart sneaks in there as well). Sosnick adds, "When he pitches at home in front of his family in L.A., he's basically unhittable."

One key advantage Nolasco has to a comparable free agent starter like Santana is that Nolasco is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having been traded midseason. In December 2012, after Nolasco became the Marlins' highest-paid player following a series of trades, Sosnick told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, "If he had his druthers, he would pitch for somebody other than the Marlins in 2013 and beyond." Opening the season with the Marlins, however, ultimately gave Nolasco's free agent value a boost, as he doesn't have to worry about having draft pick compensation attached.

Weaknesses/Cons

There is a good case to be made that Nolasco is simply a 3.80 ERA type who had a nice 12-start run. My ERA estimator of choice, SIERA, has him at 3.71 this year, as opposed to his actual 3.14 mark. Nolasco has allowed 8.2 hits per nine innings in 2013, after allowing 10.4 in 2011-12. Limiting hits isn't a skill if the pitcher can't do it year in and year out, despite Sosnick's "unhittable" comment.

Nolasco's strikeout rate this year is a workable 7.3 per nine innings, but it was 6.2 per nine from 2011-12. He's currently sporting what would be the best home run rate of his career (0.77 per nine innings), but it's owed more to only 8.8% of his flyballs leaving the yard, rather than to a more reliable higher groundball rate. Nolasco is a flyball pitcher, and moving forward should be expected to give up more home runs and hits perhaps with a lower strikeout rate.

As far as the "getting out of Miami" boost to Nolasco's numbers, his groundball rate is up a tick, and he's in front of a better defense. Still, the best bet is to pay for the innings and a 3.80 ERA.

Personal

Nolasco grew up rooting for the Dodgers in Rialto, California, and described the trade as a "dream come true" in a statement. Nolasco, whose full name is Carlos Enrique, is close with his brother Dave, a former Brewers minor league pitcher. During the offseason, Ricky can be found in the desert almost every weekend, camping with friends and driving sand rail dune buggies.

Market

Nolasco's statement upon his trade to the Dodgers also included the line, "I couldn't be more excited to play in front of my family and friends in Dodger Stadium during the season, and hopefully for many more seasons to come." In other words, "I'm very interested in a contract extension, by the way." The most likely scenario has to be a contract extension with the Dodgers before Nolasco hits the open market. Nolasco has pitched well for the Dodgers and wants to stay, and he's got an extension-friendly agent in Sosnick. Nolasco's apparent eagerness to pitch for the Dodgers may reduce his leverage, but he has already banked about $34MM in his career, mostly from a 2010 extension with the Marlins totaling $27MM. He definitely came out several million ahead on that deal, as the Marlins might have eventually non-tendered him otherwise. Already having a large measure of financial security restores some of Nolasco's leverage.

If the Dodgers and Nolasco can't find common ground, perhaps he'd first turn to other California teams like the Angels and Giants. American League teams, however, could be wary of Nolasco, as he's an NL lifer. The Phillies and Mets may be on the lookout for starting pitching, as well as the Indians if the AL isn't an issue. The Giants, Rockies, Rangers, Padres, and Orioles had trade interest in Nolasco during the summer.

Expected Contract

An agent recently told me he focuses much more on years than average annual value, because teams and agents generally know the likely AAV range before they even begin negotiating. Nolasco should have no problem finding three years; the big question is whether the Dodgers or another team will offer four. Sosnick will probably begin there, explaining why his client is on par with Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle, and one of the best in a weak market. Jackson, Buehrle, and Nolasco are all durable 200 inning types, but Jackson hit the market at 29 and brought the allure of a 93-94 mile per hour fastball. Buehrle was two years older than Nolasco, but also had better career numbers. Plus, Buehrle's four-year, $58MM contract was something of a fluke — the Marlins were reportedly the only team offering the fourth year, as they were in the midst of a new ballpark spending spree. Then again, it only takes one team to guarantee that fourth year, making the Jackson contract Nolasco's likely ceiling.

An innings guy these days will probably require an AAV in the $10-13MM range. Ultimately I believe Nolasco will sign a three-year, $36MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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