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GMs Advise Students With Front Office Aspirations

By Tim Dierkes | February 27, 2013 at 12:00am CDT

It's an email that lands in the MLBTR inbox often: an ambitious high school student dreams of being a Major League GM one day, and asks us for advice.  I decided to ask a bunch of people who would know: current GMs and assistant GMs.  Top execs from 17 teams responded to MLBTR's query: What one piece of advice would you give to a high school student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day? 

Get around the game as much as you can.  There's no substitute for watching and talking baseball.  You've got to love the game enough to want the lifestyle that comes with it, and the family sacrifices on the back end.  Play as long as you can, go to as many games at all levels as possible, talk to whomever you come across, and read what you can. The market is increasingly flooded with job applicants with analytical backgrounds.  The way to differentiate yourself is your feel for the game, and your people skills — a good education and analytic skill set aren't enough.  – Jon Daniels, Rangers General Manager

Play baseball until someone tears the jersey off your back.  - Dan Duquette, Orioles Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations

1. Read mlbtraderumors.com daily. 2. Play as long as you can. 3. Watch as many games as you can. To tie points #2 and #3 together, I do think it is important to learn by watching and playing…not just studying the game.  - Josh Byrnes, Padres Executive Vice President, General Manager

Follow your passion.  As much as anything these jobs are a way of life that often require both resiliency and unconditional love of the game.  In the end all types of skill sets and backgrounds work – but those that are rooted in true passion for the game are those that will last the longest.  – Jerry Dipoto, Angels General Manager

Study hard! If you are a player, study the game and players.  Seek out experienced coaches and managers, to learn to evaluate players and teams.  Spend time with scouts to understand how they evaluate and what is important to them in their position.  Study the use of analytical data to combine with your baseball knowledge.  If you do not play, study the game and statistics.  A statistical background will help you get in the door for an interview.  In today’s front office, it’s a prerequisite.  Go to as many games as possible, ask your high school coach if you can be the team assistant. Experience the game as closely as possible.  You need to know the common language of the game to increase your credibility.  Overall, understand that a career in baseball is a constant learning experience and the game changes.  Be open-minded to learn throughout your career.  - Bill Geivett, Rockies Sr. Vice President – Major League Operations

It’s like anything else in life: prepare in case the opportunity comes, but do not assume or expect anything will happen.  There is no magical formula to find work in baseball operations and there are so many qualified individuals who don’t get opportunities.  I think if you ask anybody who works in baseball operations they will tell you that luck, even in the form of just being in the right place at the right time, played a big part in their career.  The key is to put yourself in the best position possible and be prepared so that if fortune smiles upon you that you are able to make the most of that opportunity.  – John Coppolella, Braves Assistant General Manager

 

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Whether high school or college, I give similar advice and it boils down to one key thing for me.  Do something that helps you separate yourself from the competition.  You need to have a great resume that shows achievement in academics and leadership experience, but many people have these qualifications and still have a hard time getting a job in baseball because the competition is so strong.  What separates you from the rest of the candidate pool is having actually done something—it could be independent work or it could be a school-related project or paper—that shows that you can make an immediate impact in a front office.  This could be doing your own original analysis, writing scouting reports on players, writing for a blog, building a video website, writing mock arbitration briefs, building an organizational efficiency tool, etc.  Find a niche that you are interested in and that shows off your skills and pursue some real work in that niche that would contribute to a front office immediately.  – Mike Chernoff, Indians Assistant General Manager

One that I think some will overlook that might set them apart is to become fluent in Spanish.  Do as many internships as you can.  Ask questions of everyone you meet that is involved in baseball.  – Bob Miller, Reds Vice President and Assistant General Manager

The one piece of advice I would give them is to not get too specific when planning college courses. I believe it is important to be able to write well, speak in front of a group or crowd and be able to articulate your thoughts and compose a defensible argument when discussing any topic. I’m convinced that a well-rounded education is more valuable than someone who is overly specialized. I also believe that the best education is an internship with a Major League club, particularly in baseball ops. It gives the person a first-hand look at how a baseball is run in basically every facet of baseball operations. It also affords the person the opportunity to showcase their skills and make many valuable contacts.  – Rob Antony, Twins Assistant General Manager

To put simply: be persistent, leave no stone unturned.  Overall, I would say to be as well-rounded as possible, be a sponge, and spend as much time as possible around various baseball personnel as possible.  – Jeff Kingston, Mariners Assistant General Manager

I would tell them to develop their analytical skills as much as they can.  One of the main front office skills is analyzing the never-ending flow of information.   This consists of scouting reports, medical, performance, agents, etc.   Analytical skills are used in every aspect of the operation, from payroll management to breaking down a pitcher's delivery or a hitter's swing.  They further can educate themselves on statistical analysis and the valuation of players.  – Michael Wickham, Marlins Director, Baseball Operations

Think about what value you could offer a front office someday and start working towards it – if it's scouting, start writing reports; if it’s analytics, learn SQL and do analysis; if it’s web development, create a website; etc.  - Michael Girsch, Cardinals Assistant General Manager

The best advice I received was to pursue activities and environments that challenge you to think critically.  Whether that's academically, athletically, or extracurricularly, taking time to develop critical thinking skills will help in any profession and baseball is no different.  Some of the most impressive young job seekers I've met are those with a strong baseball background and interest in the game who also have the ability to discuss industry issues with a unique slant.  – David Stearns, Astros Assistant General Manager

I'd probably say that they should be open-minded and creative in finding ways to gain experience and opportunities. There are a lot of smart, qualified people in the baseball industry that have gotten to where they are via a wide variety of paths. As such, it's difficult to pinpoint a specific path or skill set for someone in high school or college to pursue. If someone can be passionate, creative and committed to the goal of a career in baseball from a young age, they're certainly putting themselves in a good position early in life.  - Billy Ryan, Diamondbacks Assistant General Manager

When you are young it is always best to keep your focus broad in terms of career choices. Choose a college where you can get the best education for your money and your interests. There is no limit what you can accomplish inside or outside of baseball, but your education will be a key foundation for your future. While in college, summer internships are a great way to explore many different options for your future. Do not get too narrow-minded too early. Allow each summer to give you a unique perspective on various industries, professional services or even international and cross-cultural experiences. Regardless of what career you choose, you must demonstrate a strong work ethic, develop your character with integrity, fulfill your educational goals, and treat others with kindness.  - Bobby Evans, Giants Vice President, Baseball Operations

I would tell them to maximize their educational opportunities by studying hard and achieving good grades – use their classes as a means to acquire knowledge and skills that can be transferred into employment…teams are always looking for smart people. I personally recommend a business/economics/statistical focus for the most readily transferrable skills, but ultimately candidates that are smart and willing to work very hard are what clubs (or any business) seek the most. Additionally, having attention to detail is something that is achievable and they should try to continually improve on.

In their spare time, they should closely follow the game and try to learn as much as possible about the industry – having knowledge and passion for baseball (in whatever aspect intrigues them the most…scouting, player development, statistical analysis, etc.) is nearly as important as what grades are on their resume. The ability to demonstrate a true passion and desire to work in this field goes a long way.

They’ll need to use these attributes/skills in order to compete for highly sought-after internships…getting one of those is the first step in the process (and people usually have more than one these days). If they are able to secure one, they should work the hardest that they can in order to earn the respect of their bosses…and they should do so with the best attitude possible (don’t promote yourself to the detriment of others, etc.).  - Jay Sartori, Blue Jays Assistant General Manager

Try to acquire a broad-based background, both from and educational standpoint and from a practical work standpoint. An eventual degree is sports administration can be helpful but it isn’t mandatory. If you are not playing baseball in high school, get involved with the baseball team in some fashion (manager, scorer, videographer, Webmaster, etc.).

Many of the established collegiate sports administration programs should be able to aid you in securing an internship with either a Major League or minor league club. The minor leagues are a great place to get a broad-based background. I have recommended to young people that they begin in the minor leagues, preferably at the lower levels where smaller staffs are prevalent. A young person can get a broader perspective there rather than going directly to a Major League club and working in a narrowly-focused internship position. The minor league experience will also enhance your resume as you prepare to seek an opportunity with a Major League club. An alternative would be to seek a minor league video internship position with a Major League club, where you would be dealing with minor league players, coaches and managers on a daily basis.

If you are successful in eventually securing a baseball operations position with a Major League club, be patient during the early stages of your career. New opportunities may not present themselves as quickly as you would like. In looking back at my career, I spent five years in the minor leagues. I spent another five years in the Royals front office before I got to a position where I was given opportunity to work closely with John Schuerholz. It took me 24 years in the game before I got my chance to be a general manager, which was my eventual goal. While young people in baseball need to prepare for their next opportunity, they also need to have the patience to wait for it to develop. The chances are good that if you work hard in whatever position you’re in, someone will notice and you will receive new opportunities as they become available. Typically, it’s a step-by-step process that is not going to happen overnight. Unless you are prepared for the fact that it’s going to take some period of time, you’re probably not going to realize long term success.  – Dean Taylor, Royals Vice President – Baseball Operations/Assistant General Manager and former Brewers GM

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MLBTR Originals

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Analyzing The 2014-15 MLB Free Agent Class

By Tim Dierkes | February 25, 2013 at 7:47am CDT

We're always looking ahead here at MLBTR, sometimes way ahead, hence our recent publication of the 2014-15 free agent class.  These players project for free agency after the 2014 season, two seasons from now.  We know plenty of them will sign extensions between now and then, but it's still fun to discuss.

Joining This Group Later

After the 2013 season, several players have club options that seem likely to be exercised, such as James Shields and Jon Lester.  That means they'll play out the 2014 season and then become free agents.

The Under-30 Group

Clayton Kershaw, Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Colby Rasmus, Homer Bailey, and Chris Perez are among those who will play the 2015 season at an age below 30.  Kershaw and Andrus, in particular, are primed for monster contracts barring major hiccups in the next two seasons.  Kershaw will turn 27 in March of 2015, and the Dodgers' ace seems the best candidate to soar past the $200MM mark whether through an extension or free agency.  Andrus, meanwhile, will enter the 2015 season as a 26-year-old.  It takes a special kind of player to put in six years of Major League service time by that age. 

Position Players

The 2014-15 free agent class is deep at shortstop at the moment, with Andrus, Cabrera, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, and perhaps Hanley Ramirez.  Sandoval, Chase Headley, and Nick Markakis are potential middle-of-the-order bats in a market that appears light on them.  Perhaps someone like Melky Cabrera can post a couple of strong seasons to solidify his status.  Otherwise you're looking at a 39-year-old David Ortiz or 35/36/37-year-olds Josh Willingham, Adam LaRoche, Victor Martinez, Aramis Ramirez, and Michael Cuddyer.

Starting Pitchers

Kershaw and Justin Verlander represent a pair of true aces who will seek record-setting contracts, should they reach free agency.  Verlander will turn 32 prior to the 2015 season.  I realize he's not like most pitchers, but the list of seven-year megacontracts given to 32-year-olds is a short one for good reason.  At any rate, it'll be fun times at MLBTR if both pitchers reach free agency, but there's a pretty good chance the Dodgers lock up Kershaw.  Beyond those two, Max Scherzer, Shields, and Lester comprise a strong second tier.  Homer Bailey, Justin Masterson, and Brandon McCarthy can join them with a pair of strong seasons.  And who knows what the mid-30s will bring for Josh Beckett and Jake Peavy.

How accurate can we be, analyzing a free agent class two years early?  Aside from all the guys who will be plucked off the market early due to extensions, some players will just see their stock plummet.  For every Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton, there's a Stephen Drew, a guy who I considered a $100MM contract candidate two years ago.

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2015 MLB Free Agents

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2014-15 MLB Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | February 24, 2013 at 8:07pm CDT

MLBTR’s up-to-date list of 2014-15 MLB free agents is below (using a criteria of 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the 2014 season). These players are currently free agents. Linked names will take you to that player’s Free Agent Profile.  You can look at free agent signings by team with our Free Agent Tracker.

If you have any corrections or omissions, please contact us. To see who represents these players, check out our agency database.

Updated 5-8-15

Catchers

Ryan Doumit (34)
Jose Molina (40, currently injured)
Wil Nieves (37)
Jarrod Saltalmacchia (30)

First Basemen

Mike Carp (28)

Second Basemen

Chris Nelson (29)

Shortstops

None

Third Basemen

Chris Nelson (29)

Left Fielders

Mike Carp (28)
Scott Hairston (35)
Reed Johnson (38)
Jason Kubel (33)
Ryan Ludwick (36)
Cody Ross (34)
Dayan Viciedo (26)

Center Fielders

Endy Chavez (37)
Ryan Sweeney (30)

Right Fielders

Scott Hairston (35)
Ryan Ludwick (36)
Cody Ross (34)
Dayan Viciedo (26)

Designated Hitters

Ryan Doumit (34)
Raul Ibanez (42)
Jason Kubel (33)

Starting Pitchers

Paul Maholm (33)
Kevin Slowey (31)

Closers

Rafael Soriano (35)

Right-Handed Relievers

Kyle Farnsworth (39)
Matt Guerrier (36)
Juan Carlos Oviedo (33)
Blake Parker (29)
Chris Perez (29)
Jose Veras (35)
Brian Wilson (33)
Jamey Wright (40)

Left-Handed Relievers

Sean Burnett (32)
Scott Downs (39)

Cot’s Baseball Contracts was used in the creation of this list.

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2015 MLB Free Agents

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Filling In For Curtis Granderson

By Tim Dierkes | February 24, 2013 at 6:05pm CDT

A J.A. Happ fastball struck Curtis Granderson's right forearm today in a Spring Training game, which will knock the Yankees' projected left fielder out until May.  GM Brian Cashman intends to look at all possibilities, but of course the team will start by considering in-house corner outfielders such as Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera.  YES Network's Jack Curry tweets a reality check: the Yankees' plan to replace Granderson will be made with the expectation that he's likely to miss 30 games, not the entire season.

That's why a relatively complicated deal for veterans such as Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells seems unlikely.  Both players were quizzed by reporters today nonetheless, and both professed a desire to win with their current teams.  Regarding Soriano, Cubs president Theo Epstein told Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, "If we can get him to a winner and get a good package back we'd consider it. We haven't even been tempted yet.  He's a valuable guy here. He's more valuable to us than anything we've been offered…by far." 

A couple of ex-Yankees continue to toil in free agency: Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu.  Scott Podsednik is available as well.  They'd all be candidates for minor league deals, so the risk is minimal if Cashman wants to add some depth.

Out of options players are worth considering as well.  A few notable outfielders on that list include Jordan Schafer, Ezequiel Carrera, Casper Wells, Gorkys Hernandez, Jose Tabata, Julio Borbon, and Xavier Paul.  Tabata, a former Yankees farmhand, has $12.75MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, so the Pirates would have to be looking to cut bait and assume the vast majority.  If not Hernandez, the Marlins might be able to spare former Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan.  The Diamondbacks recently added speedster Tony Campana to a crowded outfield, and perhaps Cashman will give Kevin Towers a call.  Dewayne Wise, Scott Cousins, Eric Thames, Aaron Cunningham, Austin Kearns, Darnell McDonald, Felix Pie, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Travis Buck are some other outfielders fighting for jobs who could become available as camp progresses.

Cashman is in a tricky spot.  Anyone who represents a clear upgrade over the team's internal options might come with a decent acquisition cost, which wouldn't make sense if Granderson will be out for one month.  The best strategy might be to make a couple of low-risk acquisitions to give manager Joe Girardi additional options.

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Chicago Cubs New York Yankees Alfonso Soriano Curtis Granderson

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Latest On Kyle Lohse

By Tim Dierkes | February 23, 2013 at 8:17pm CDT

There's always a free agent left without a chair when the music stops and Spring Training begins, but rarely is the tenth-best one unsigned on February 23rd.  That's the situation with Kyle Lohse.  Back in October I questioned the idea of a four or five-year contract for the 34-year-old righty, and four months later, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that three years "should get it done at this point."

Brewers sluggers Ryan Braun and Corey Hart offered praise for Lohse in talking with Heyman, but also expressed confidence in the team's current rotation.  Heyman writes that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio "has been involved" in the team's talks with agent Scott Boras, but GM Doug Melvin said, "Things change. You never know. But at this point, we want to look at our [young] guys first."  Melvin noted that he's not opposed to giving up a draft pick to sign a 30-year-old to a three or four-year deal, but given Lohse's age, Heyman says the GM is not anxious to surrender the 17th overall draft pick.  As for the Attanasio note, he spoke about Lohse a week ago, saying, "There's not an active conversation. But our ears are always open."

In his article, Heyman runs through the eight most likely players for Lohse, whose market was examined by our own Mark Polishuk a couple of days ago.  The Angels, ranked fifth on Heyman's list, are "not interested in Kyle Lohse, have not talked about him in some time," according to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times.  I think Lohse will end up with a one or two-year deal, perhaps with a vesting option, and I'd look toward teams that would not stand to lose a first-round pick to sign him.  Having already signed two players who turned down qualifying offers, the Indians stand to lose the least by adding Lohse.  They would forfeit their third-round choice.

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Milwaukee Brewers Kyle Lohse

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Latest At RotoAuthority.com

By Tim Dierkes | February 20, 2013 at 1:52pm CDT

The outdated $8 magazines are in stores now, which can only mean one thing: fantasy baseball is around the corner.  Our crack team at RotoAuthority will guide you to certain victory, with such recent articles as:

  • Top 61 Outfielders, by Alex Steers McCrum
  • Alex Rios vs. Hunter Pence, by Mark Polishuk
  • Finding This Year's Starting Pitching Sleepers, by Tim Dierkes
  • Ninth Inning Sleepers and Busts, by Steve Adams
  • NL West Closer Analysis, by Bryan Grosnick
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RotoAuthority

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Out Of Options 2013

By Tim Dierkes | February 15, 2013 at 11:50pm CDT

The following 40-man roster players have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options.  That means they must clear waivers before being sent to the minors.  I've included players on multiyear deals.  This list was compiled through MLBTR's sources.

Angels

Bobby Cassevah, Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, Brad Mills, Jerome Williams 

Astros

Chris Carter, Tyler Greene, Lucas Harrell, Phil Humber, Fernando Martinez, Justin Maxwell, Wesley Wright 

Athletics

Daric Barton, Travis Blackley, Jerry Blevins, Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Pat Neshek, Chris Resop, Adam Rosales

Blue Jays

Emilio Bonifacio, Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Perez, Esmil Rogers, Sergio Santos

Braves

Juan Francisco, Cristhian Martinez, Ramiro Pena, Jordan Schafer, Anthony Varvaro

Brewers

Jeff Bianchi, Mat Gamel, Chris Narveson, Mark Rogers

Cardinals

None

Cubs

Michael Bowden, Welington Castillo, Jeff Samardzija, Luis Valbuena, Travis Wood

Diamondbacks

None

Dodgers

Scott Elbert, Ronald Belisario, A.J. Ellis

Giants

Conor Gillaspie, Joaquin Arias, Gregor Blanco, Yusmeiro Petit, Jose Mijares

Indians

Ezequiel Carrera, David Huff

Mariners

Josh Kinney, Robert Andino, Casper Wells, Mike Carp (designated for assignment 2-12-13)

Marlins

Mike Dunn, Gorkys Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc, Justin Ruggiano

Mets

Brandon Hicks

Nationals

Roger Bernadina, Tyler Clippard, Ross Detwiler, Henry Rodriguez, Carlos Rivero

Orioles

Chris Davis, Jim Johnson, Troy Patton, Nolan Reimold, Pedro Strop, Taylor Teagarden, Tommy Hunter, Chris Tillman

Padres

Cameron Maybin, Eric Stults, Joe Thatcher, Dale Thayer

Phillies

John Mayberry, Kevin Frandsen

Pirates

Jeanmar Gomez, Chris Leroux, James McDonald, Mark Melancon, Charlie Morton, Garrett Jones, Travis Snider, Jose Tabata

Rangers

Julio Borbon, Michael Kirkman

Rays

Jake McGee, Jeff Niemann, Jose Lobaton, Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce, Cesar Ramos

Red Sox

Felix Doubront, Andrew Miller, Franklin Morales, Clayton Mortensen, Pedro Ciriaco

Reds

Jose Arredondo, Homer Bailey, Jason Donald, Jack Hannahan, Xavier Paul, Alfredo Simon

Rockies

Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Nelson, Eric Young, Edgmer Escalona

Royals

Luke Hochevar, Luis Mendoza, Felipe Paulino, Juan Gutierrez, Guillermo Moscoso, Brett Hayes, George Kottaras, Jarrod Dyson, Elliot Johnson

Tigers

None

Twins

Trevor Plouffe, Josh Roenicke, Anthony Swarzak, Tim Wood

White Sox

Hector Gimenez, Leyson Septimo, Angel Sanchez

Yankees

Francisco Cervelli, Clay Rapada, Chris Stewart

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Out Of Options 2013

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2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | February 11, 2013 at 12:00am CDT

Here at MLBTR, we're always looking ahead.  As the 2012-13 offseason winds down, we've already got an eye on players scheduled to reach free agency after the 2013 campaign.  The full list can be found here; enjoy our first entry in the new 2014 Free Agents Power Rankings series below.

1.  Robinson Cano.  Cano is the clear number one choice, a corner type bat at a middle infield position.  2014 will be his age 31 season, and agent Scott Boras is surely licking his chops with an eight-year megacontract in the $200MM range within his sights.  Should the Yankees allow Cano to reach the open market, I expect the Dodgers to be players.

2.  Adam Wainwright.  Wainwright stands as the best pitcher scheduled to become available after the 2013 season.  Wainwright's Tommy John surgery is firmly in the rearview mirror, having taken place two full years ago.  If he returns to a Cy Young level in 2013, he's looking at Greinke money or better.  The Cardinals, however, aim to keep Wainwright off the market by locking him up prior to Opening Day.

3.  Josh Johnson.  Here's where the rankings get debatable.  2013 is crucial for Johnson, who had a pretty good 2012 after missing much of the previous season with a shoulder injury.  Traded to the Blue Jays in November, Johnson can be among the game's best power pitchers when he's right.  He can also move down this list quickly with a serious DL stint.

4.  Jacoby Ellsbury.  Ellsbury's detractors will point to significant time missed due to rib and shoulder injuries in 2010 and '12.  On the other hand, 2014 is his age 30 season and he finished second in the 2011 MVP vote with a massive nine-win season.  With a healthy '13, Boras might be able to talk his way around Ellsbury's previous injuries.

5.  Roy Halladay.  One of the game's best pitchers from 2006-11, Doc slipped in 2012 due to a shoulder injury.  Halladay will be 37 for most of the 2014 season, but he doesn't operate on the same plane as other pitchers.  Assuming he doesn't rack up 259 regular season innings this year, Halladay's 2014 option will not vest and he'll be a free agent.  His potential impact this year remains large.

6.  Shin-Soo Choo.  Choo was sent from the Indians to the Reds as part of a three-team December trade.  An arbitration hearing looms prior to his contract year season.  He may be out of his element, playing in the National League and manning center field regularly for the first time in his big league career.  One knock he'll try to overcome is his struggles against lefties — he's hit just .239/.329/.318 against them over the last three years.  Still, he could put up strong offensive numbers overall atop the Reds' lineup.

7.  Brian McCann.  McCann underwent shoulder surgery in mid-October, but the Braves had enough confidence to exercise his $12MM option the following month.  If he returns to form, he'll be an elite offensive catcher playing at age 30 in 2014.  He has a chance to move up this list once he returns from the injury.

8.  Tim Lincecum.  There was a time not long ago that Lincecum was a candidate to become baseball's first $200MM pitcher, with a pair of Cy Youngs under his belt.  However, 2012 was a career-worst season for Lincecum, who averaged below 91 miles per hour on his fastball, walked 4.4 per nine innings, and allowed nearly a hit per inning.  Since he'll pitch at age 30 in 2014 and has never been hurt, he gets the benefit of the doubt for now and a top ten spot.

9.  Matt Garza.  Garza had also been cruising toward a big payday until 2012, when an elbow injury derailed his season.  He's another guy who will play at age 30 in '14 and is entering a pivotal contract year.  A midseason trade could benefit Garza greatly, erasing the issue of a qualifying offer.

10.  Hunter Pence.  Pence hit 24 home runs and drove in 104 runs in 2012, but it was still an off-year as he struggled mightily upon being traded to the Giants.  If he posts an offensive line around his career average, he'll be in good shape entering free agency aside from a potential qualifying offer concern.

These rankings will change significantly throughout the season, with so many players entering critical contract years.  Some players with a chance to muscle their way into my top ten include Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, and Phil Hughes.  I'm not ranking Ben Zobrist, Chris B. Young, Jon Lester, or James Shields here in anticipation of their club options being exercised after the season.

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2014 Free Agent Power Rankings

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Avoiding The Qualifying Offer

By Tim Dierkes | February 9, 2013 at 12:00am CDT

Pitchers and catchers are due to report this weekend for some teams, yet two of MLBTR's top ten free agents remain unsigned in Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse.  Part of the delay is owed to the master of slow-playing free agency, Scott Boras.  However, another major factor for both players is that they received and turned down qualifying offers in November.

Edwin Jackson - Nationals (PW)

Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, teams had the ability to tender their free agents a guaranteed one-year "qualifying offer" that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the most recently completed season.  For the 2012-13 offseason, that amount was $13.3MM.  Only nine players were deemed worthy of such offers by their teams: Bourn, Lohse, Josh Hamilton, Hiroki Kuroda, Adam LaRoche, David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano, Nick Swisher, and B.J. Upton.  All nine players turned down the offer in search of more lucrative contracts.

Any team signing one of these nine free agents, outside of their own, was required to forfeit its highest available draft pick, with the first ten picks protected.  Kuroda and Ortiz avoided the issue by re-signing quickly in November, and while LaRoche eventually re-signed with the Nationals in January, draft pick compensation did seem to affect his market.  Swisher and Soriano ultimately signed smaller-than-expected contracts as well.  Higher-caliber players such as Hamilton and Upton seemed unaffected.

Many of our top 20 free agents were able to avoid qualifying offers.  Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Victorino and Ryan Dempster skirted the issue by virtue of midseason trades, which make a player ineligible to receive a qualifying offer.  In a January radio interview with Tim McKernan, Jim Hayes, and Doug Vaughn of The Morning After, Lohse referred to this as a "get out of jail free card" for Greinke and Sanchez.

Other top 20 free agents, such as Edwin Jackson, Angel Pagan, Mike Napoli, and Torii Hunter, simply didn't receive qualifying offers from their former teams.  Jackson ultimately signed the largest contract of these players, a $52MM pact with the Cubs that basically guarantees him a qualifying offer-type salary over four seasons.  The Nationals, who stood to receive a draft pick in the supplemental first round had Jackson declined a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, elected to move on instead.  Jackson's agent, Greg Genske of The Legacy Agency, preferred not to speculate on the Nationals' decision, but told MLBTR, "We were delighted to see that they didn't offer him a qualifying offer, because we know this: it's certainly not going to hurt him to not have the draft pick compensation attached to him."  The Cubs ran parallel pursuits of Jackson and Sanchez, and it's no coincidence the rebuilding team zeroed in on pitchers who would not require the forfeiture of their second round draft pick.

If signing a free agent does require the forfeiture of a first or second round draft pick, how much does it matter to potential suitors?  It's team-specific, explained Genske, who said, "I think that most of the teams that are in on the top-tier free agents are really focused on winning now.  So I think they're less inclined to be concerned about that draft pick and even the bonus pool money associated with it."  In Victorino, Dempster, and Napoli, the Red Sox signed three top 20 free agents who did not come with draft pick compensation attached.  GM Ben Cherington explained to MLBTR, "We have to consider the cost of giving up a pick, as draft picks are valuable, and so it's part of the acquisition cost for a free agent attached to a draft pick. But there are cases we will consider giving up a pick for the right player. This offseason many of our targets didn't require that, but it was a secondary benefit, not the driving factor in our pursuit."  One NL exec I spoke to seemed less concerned about potentially losing a draft pick, saying, "If we really want the player and feel he can make the difference for us in having a championship club – or building toward a championship club – it’s not a significant factor.  Look, we all like picks and prospects, but even among the top 50 prospects in the game more than half of them never make it."

Lohse, our tenth-ranked free agent, clearly feels draft pick compensation dragged down his market, telling McKernan, Hayes, and Vaughn, "Losing the pick, it's obviously kind of a big deal for teams, but they also lose about 30% of the money they can spend on the draft, so that definitely handcuffs them when it comes to signing other people."  Lohse hit on one major difference between losing a draft pick now versus under the old CBA: the team also loses the MLB-allotted slot money associated with that pick.  And unlike previous offseasons, a team can't go over slot elsewhere in the draft to make up for a lost pick.

What can an agent do to avoid Lohse's plight?  Perhaps agents will push impending free agents to be more open to waiving their no-trade clauses midseason, in hopes of snagging that "get out of jail free" card.  One strategy, allowed under the old CBA, was to negotiate a clause into a free agent contract that stipulated the team could not offer arbitration after the season.  This type of agreement is outlawed in the new CBA "whether implied or explicit, either orally or in writing," with potentially steep penalties.  A bold agent could legally sidestep draft pick compensation in one way: convince the client to sit out the first two months of the season and sign after the June draft.  Otherwise, the agent is left to explore the unlikely scenario of a sign-and-trade loophole.  It should also be noted that the Mets are currently lobbying MLB for an exception that would lessen the blow for teams with bottom-ten records whose first-round draft pick was pushed out of the protected top ten.

Lohse admitted he's biased, but wondered in the interview if "the rules could use a little tweaking [to] figure out a way to make it a little more fair."  The NL exec with whom I spoke doesn't find the current system unfair, noting that "the great thing about qualifying offers was that only elite players received them."  Cherington also feels we're better off now, telling MLBTR, "I think the new rules are more equitable..it's less likely that a player's market will be affected by being attached to a pick. The intent is to provide some compensation to teams who lose the most impactful free agents to free agency particularly those who a team has invested in over time."  Genske feels the same from the agency side, telling me, "You take a lot of the people out of the [draft pick compensation] system altogether, which is helpful for players, and you've limited some of the arbitrary nature as as to what the compensation is going to be for a particular free agent."

The bottom line: the new draft pick compensation system is superior, but a qualifying offer is a major drag on the leverage of good-but-not-great free agents.  For such players, perhaps teams that place a lower value on draft picks will become the most coveted destinations, so that qualifying offers can be avoided.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Oscar Taveras Switches Agents

By Tim Dierkes | January 28, 2013 at 9:22pm CDT

One of the best prospects in baseball has new representation.  Cardinals outfield prospect Oscar Taveras has dropped agent Melvin Roman for Rob Plummer, MLBTR has learned.  It's a coup for Plummer, who now represents several of the game's best Dominican prospects, such as Miguel Sano of the Twins and Carlos Martinez, also of the Cardinals.

Taveras, 20, ascended to Double-A last year with great success.  Most prospect gurus rank him in their top three, and he's got a good shot at making his Major League debut in 2013.

For agency info on over 1,700 players, check out MLBTR's oft-updated agency database.  Agents: if you've got a 40-man roster player or top prospect whose representation is not correctly noted, we welcome corrections at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

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St. Louis Cardinals Oscar Taveras

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