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Why I Chose My Agency: Ike Davis
Mets first baseman Ike Davis bashed a career-best 32 home runs in 2012. Today I spoke with him about his relationship with his agent, Lou Jon Nero of Octagon.
On his first agent:
The first guy we ever met was Gregg Clifton, he was with Octagon at the time. My dad [former MLB pitcher Ron Davis] knew Clifton and he was like "Alright, whatever, we'll try you out for a little while." It wasn't like they could do much then because it was advisors. I hadn't been drafted or played my senior season yet. I started talking to him for a little bit, and personality-wise it wasn't a great fit. Before the season I met Lou Jon and we put him through the grinder a couple of times, made him come to the house for three or four dinners, and had dad question him. I was there, and I obviously didn't know much about what you're looking for at that time, being so young. It was just a personality test to make sure you're with good people. We don't like slimy people in the Davis family. He passed the test with flying colors, and we told him we'd like him to represent us, and I've been with him almost ten years.
On Octagon's acquisition of the baseball divisions of CSMG in 2008:
They were CSMG back in the day, when I first met them. CSMG said they were selling basketball and football, and our whole baseball office is going to Octagon.
Was that acquisition a concern?
Not really, because you don't go for the company. You go for the agent, the guy that is representing you. Companies will have four or five different agents and you have to find the one that you can communicate with, that understands what makes you tick and what to do and how to do things to keep you at your best level of play.
On how he decided he clicked with Lou Jon:
We spent a lot of time together. He's a young guy, he's not old school. He never made me feel like I didn't know what I was talking about. He never made me feel like I was inferior. He's kind of hip. He's around my age, and we like the same stuff. He's really up-to-date with technology, he's on top of all the things that I'm not always on top of. He's fun to hang out with, he's very family-oriented which I like. He doesn't have slicked-back hair, nice suits, a $100,000 watch — he's homey, kind of like I am. I don't like the shiny look on the agents, it's kind of freaky.
On considering signing when he was drafted out of high school by the Devil Rays in 2005:
It was about money, and what it would take to not go to college. Lou Jon basically said, "You're not going to go unless it's over a million dollars." At that time I was like, "You're crazy man, $700,000 is a lot of money." He said, "Don't worry about it, you're going to get money, you'll be in a better position." I got drafted, and I think the most they could probably come up with was maybe half a million or something like that. It was a lot of money to turn down at 18, but Lou said, "Don't worry, you've got three years of being in Tempe, Arizona [at Arizona State University], three years of the best time of your life, and you'll be drafted way higher when you're done. It's a win-win for you." He was letting me know, "Everything's fine dude, you're going to be great." He always had the right path in mind for me, which is really cool.
On the 2008 draft, in which he was taken 18th overall by the Mets:
That's actually pretty crazy, because the draft's a weird thing. The teams don't really know, the agents really can't tell you much unless you're the first or second pick. When you're after the first five or six picks, it's kind of like, "Who knows." One team might have you fourth on the board, one might have you 19th. It's different. I knew that I was going to get drafted in the top two rounds, didn't know yet if it was going to be by the Dodgers, who wanted me to pitch, or a team that wanted me to hit. Basically what I told every team was if you draft me, I was going to sign. I was like, "I'm going to sign if you draft me, so draft me."
Did that hurt your leverage?
No…one thing I like about Lou Jon is that we know what we're worth and what we're not. We're not trying to get crazy money out of people. You know that when you're drafted 19th you're not going to get $8MM. We know where we stand. We don't make people upset and we don't get upset because we're not asking for an unfair amount of money. The slot was like $1.4MM and I ended up getting $1.575MM. If Lou Jon was throwing out $3MM, then things might not happen. I probably wouldn't get drafted in the first 20 picks.
On what an agent does after a draft pick signs:
Off-the-field stuff like card signings and deals with equipment, and how not to get trapped into long-term deals with equipment when you could make the big leagues in a year, and you're in a three-year Nike deal, or a three-year deal with anybody, and instead of making that $10-12K a year, you're still making $500 a year. Say you're in the minor leagues and you really want to be with Under Armour, and they're like, "We'll give you all your cleats and we'll give you $500 in merchandise a year, but here, sign this five or six-year deal." You sign the deal and in a year and a half you're in the big leagues in New York, and you're this up-and-coming rookie that's making a big splash, you're going to have a chance to make over $20K a year instead of being on that $500 deal.
On his involvement in negotiations for his first-year arbitration salary in 2013:
I was pretty involved. My agency had come up with a booklet the size of the Yellow Pages, with all different players that were similar that I could be compared to. It's more for knowledge of why we think I should get the money. We came up with a number together, looking at all the people that have gone before me, this is the number that should be fair for a first year of arbitration. We said this number we're going with, we're not going any less, period. If they want to go less, then we go to arbitration. The biggest thing is sticking to your guns. We made a fair number, and this is what we deserve. We talked to MLB to make sure they thought it was a fair number, and they agreed.
We said [to the Mets], "We can end it right now simply if you just give us this, we'll sign that day." We started talking three or four days before that date. They came in at 2.8 [million], and we were like, "No, we want 3.125 and we're good." The good thing is we had quick communication. They said 2.8, we said no, 3.125. They said 3, we said 3.125. They said 3.1, we said 3.125. They said 3.120, we said 3.125. That day was over and it was past the date. The next day they go, "Here's the 3.125." The good thing is, we weren't asking for $4MM. We didn't have to go to arbitration and have potential to lose $800K or $1MM because we have a poor number.
On going year-to-year versus signing long-term:
I like being with Lou Jon because we're pretty open about what it will take and what's a good deal. We go over what is a fair deal to do. We're not asking crazy amounts, we just want what's fair, what I have proved on the field and what I deserve. If that comes to where the Mets do offer me an extension or want to extend me, me and Lou Jon will come up with a number that we think is a fair number — not a number that's not fair or we're pushing the envelope. If whoever doesn't want the fair number then obviously we'll go year-to-year and me and Lou Jon have no problem doing it, but guaranteed years and security is always nice. Lou Jon has a lot of confidence in me to go year-to-year and be fine if that's the case.
Has the team thrown anything out there to date?
No. We have not. The first thing I ever even heard about it was a couple of days ago, but there was no conversation, it was just a random passerby asked me if I knew they were thinking about extending me, and I was like, "Nah, I haven't heard of anything." I guess Sandy had said something to somebody that they were thinking about it, something like that.
Would you be open to giving up a free agent year or two to get that guarantee now?
I'm open to a conversation about anything. The free agency years are obviously the tough ones, because those are the years that you have the potential to sign a bigger contract for a longer term. As for arbitration, I wouldn't mind a three or four-year deal where it takes arbitration out of it. We're more inclined to take care of the arbitration years. They always say your first deal, it's mutual, but it's team-oriented, and your free agency is obviously player-oriented. Me and Lou Jon are up for anything, but it has to make sense.
On whether he's recommended Lou Jon to other players:
Me and Lou Jon are really good friends now. We've known each other for ten years, I know his whole family and we spend a lot of time together. He comes over, we'll go to hole-in-the-wall food places, my brother hangs out with him, he's around a lot. But I also hang out with baseball players. I don't like pressuring people into doing stuff. That's another reason Lou Jon's really cool, is that he never pressures my friends, asking questions about how they feel about their agents. He knows that if they were looking for an agent, they would ask him about it.
On whether a larger agency offers an advantage over a small one:
For sure. When I was with CSMG with Lou Jon, it was a good-sized agency, but it was small. Once they moved to Octagon, there's just more people reaching out trying to improve your brand, getting more opportunities and more business ventures. There's more connections and more hands that are working on stuff.
Check out our other interviews in the Why I Chose My Agency series with Ted Lilly, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, Aramis Ramirez, Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Affeldt, David Wright, Jay Bruce, and Matt Holliday.
Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies addressed their outfield, third base, and late-inning relief concerns without making a major free agent splash.
Major League Signings
- John Lannan, SP: one year, $2.5MM.
- Delmon Young, OF: one year, $750K.
- Mike Adams, RP: two years, $12MM. $6.5MM vesting option for 2015.
- Carlos Ruiz, C: one year, $5MM. Club Option Exercised.
- Chad Durbin, RP: one year, $1.1MM. Club option for 2014.
- Total Spend: $21.35MM.
Minor League Signings
- Yuniesky Betancourt, Joe Mather, Matt Tolbert, Brian Bass, Aaron Cook, Rodrigo Lopez, Andres Blanco, Josh Fields, Michael Martinez, Zach Miner, Pete Orr, Humberto Quintero, Cesar Jimenez.
Trades and Waiver Claims
- Acquired IF Michael Young from Rangers for RP Josh Lindblom and RP Lisalverto Bonilla.
- Acquired OF Ben Revere from Twins for SP Vance Worley and SP Trevor May.
- Acquired 1B Art Charles from Blue Jays for RP Michael Schwimer.
- Claimed RP Mauricio Robles off waivers from Mariners.
- Claimed OF Ender Inciarte from Diamondbacks in Rule 5 draft.
Notable Losses
- Placido Polanco, Ty Wigginton, Juan Pierre, Nate Schierholtz, Jose Contreras, David Herndon, Josh Lindblom, Vance Worley, Michael Schwimer, Trevor May, Lisalverto Bonilla.
Needs Addressed
The Phillies' needs were clear at the beginning of the offseason. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. addressed the outfield, third base, and the bullpen without doling out any large contracts.
The Phillies explored all avenues in center field. They were linked to free agents such as B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, and Angel Pagan, but Amaro chose to acquire 24-year-old former first round pick Ben Revere from the Twins for a useful big league starter in Vance Worley and a respectable pitching prospect in Trevor May. Credit Amaro for making a push for Revere (pictured) when many thought he'd be unavailable, since the Twins had already dealt Denard Span. Revere, who is not yet arbitration eligible, is under control through 2017. Revere will have to provide value to the team with his glove, as he doesn't possess power and doesn't draw walks. The departure of Worley created an opening in the rotation, which Amaro addressed by signing Lannan as a free agent.
The free agent market for third basemen was shallow, so Amaro went the trade route there as well by acquiring Young. The 36-year-old is coming off his worst season in the last decade, though prior to 2012, he'd been a consistent three-win contributor. Young escapes the trade rumors and lack of position that plagued his final years in Texas, and some level of bounceback seems probable. Plus, he has a reputation as a good clubhouse guy. The Phillies effectively have to contribute $7.2MM toward Young's salary, and they surrendered some bullpen depth in Lindblom and a decent relief prospect in Bonilla.
Adams was signed at top of the market setup man dollars to be the new bridge to closer Jonathan Papelbon. At 34 years old with a significant injury history and slipping peripherals, Adams represents a gamble by Amaro. At least the Phillies didn't have to guarantee a third year. Durbin, signed at an affordable price, restores the depth lost by dealing Lindblom.
The Phillies chose an interesting route to filling right field, signing Delmon Young dirt cheap. Young, the first overall pick in '03, had one decent season back in 2010. He'll have a sub-par on-base percentage unless he hits near .300, since he doesn't draw walks. Young will likely cost the team runs on defense, especially coming off November microfracture surgery on his ankle. The Phillies will have to hope Revere can pick up Young's slack defensively, and Young stays out of trouble and pops 20 home runs. The whole idea of Young as a productive regular seems unlikely to pan out, but the cost was barely above the league minimum.
Questions Remaining
Will the Phillies' new-look outfield provide any offense? The best bet for usefulness is Domonic Brown, the former top prospect who was pegged as a breakout candidate by ESPN's Keith Law. The infield offers a bit more offense, but it's an aging group.
The other looming question is what to expect out of Roy Halladay, who finally looked mortal last year. If Doc shakes off the spring velocity concerns and musters up 225+ innings of sub-3.00 ERA ball, the team's trio of aces should keep them in contention all year. Otherwise, the Phillies' rotation depth will determine whether they can even play .500 ball in 2013.
Deal of Note
Lannan, a 28-year-old southpaw, spent most of 2012 languishing with the Nationals' Triple-A club before reaching free agency via non-tender in November. Since Lannan only has four years of Major League service, his arbitration eligibility after 2013 effectively serves as a club option. At $2.5MM, the Phillies didn't have to invest much in a pitcher they mostly just need to take the ball every fifth day and not embarrass himself.
Overview
The Phillies are not going to be a trendy playoff pick for 2013, with the Nationals and Braves both looking strong. But don't forget 2011, when the same trio of ace starters led them to 102 wins. If Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Halladay, Papelbon, and Adams are healthy and effective, this team will be very tough to beat 60% of the time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Oswalt Working Out, Aims To Pitch For Contender
Free agent righty Roy Oswalt is working out at Mississippi State and waiting for the right offer from a contender, agent Bob Garber of RMG Baseball tells MLBTR. Unlike a year ago, geography will not be a factor for Oswalt. Instead, he's focused entirely on pitching for a contender. Oswalt would be open to late inning relief in certain cases, though he prefers to start.
Oswalt, 35, signed with the Rangers in late May last year and pitched 59 innings without much success. Prior to 2012, Oswalt's illustrious career with the Astros and Phillies included three All-Star appearances and six seasons in which he placed sixth or better in the Cy Young voting. When asked about his client pitching for the Astros again, Garber conceded that Oswalt hopes to do so before he retires. Oswalt trails Joe Niekro by one win for the franchise record.
Garber Buys Back Agency
Longtime agent Bob Garber has successfully bought back RMG. Garber bought out his partners earlier this year, regaining control of his business. Garber retained all of his clients in the amicable sale. He represents players such as C.J. Wilson, Roy Oswalt, Mike Fiers, Craig Gentry, Collin Cowgill, Brendan Harris, Tommy Field, and J.D. Martinez, among others.
Garber had sold his company to Select Sports Group in 2010. As of 2013, he was able to buy it back without any of the lawsuits or drama that often come with this type of situation.
You can keep track of the representation for over 1,000 players with MLBTR's agency database.
Offseason In Review: New York Mets
The Mets locked up their most famous player through 2020, boldly following that move by trading the NL Cy Young winner for prospects.
Major League Signings
- Shaun Marcum, SP: one year, $4MM.
- Brandon Lyon, RP: one year, $750K.
- Total Spend: $4.75MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
- Corey Patterson, Marlon Byrd, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison, Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Laffey, Tim Byrdak, Brian Bixler.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF Collin Cowgill from Athletics for 3B Jefry Marte.
- Acquired C John Buck, C Travis D'Arnaud, SP Noah Syndergaard and OF Wuilmer Becerra from Blue Jays for SP R.A. Dickey, C Josh Thole and C Mike Nickeas.
- Acquired IF Brandon Hicks from Athletics for Cash Considerations.
- Claimed IF Anthony Recker off of waivers from Cubs.
- Claimed SP Kyle Lobstein from Rays in Rule 5 draft.
Extensions
- David Wright, 3B: eight years, $138MM.
Notable Losses
- R.A. Dickey, Mike Nickeas, Josh Thole, Kelly Shoppach, Scott Hairston, Andres Torres, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Rauch, Chris Young, Ramon Ramirez, Ronny Cedeno, Jefry Marte.
Needs Addressed
In early December, the Mets locked up the face of their franchise by giving third baseman David Wright seven years and $122MM in new money. Some will argue that the Mets "had" to retain Wright, unless they wanted to deal with a revolt from fans who haven't seen them finish better than fourth place since 2008. The Madoff suit had been settled prior to the season, and Wright was coming off a vintage year. This was more than just a contract extension; it was a grand gesture to fans.
Signing Wright is certainly a decision that would require the involvement of ownership. Still, back in 2010, GM Sandy Alderson had expressed a preference to avoid "second generation" contracts, and the Wright deal qualifies as such. The extension covers his age 31-37 seasons, obviously not the ideal slice of any player's career. In the Mets' defense, at an average annual value of under $17.5MM, Wright doesn't need to be a superstar for the team to recoup value. Deferred money and a frontloaded structure are also points in the Mets' favor.
The positive P.R. from the Wright signing may have softened the blow for the team's half-hearted attempt to extend reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. The knuckleballer was already under contract for a mere $5MM for 2013, after the team exercised its club option. Dickey reportedly asked for two years and about $26MM for 2014-15, his age 39-40 seasons. That request was more than reasonable even given Dickey's age, but the Mets reportedly stopped at two years and about $20MM. The implication is that the team didn't really want to extend him, and Dickey was instead traded to Toronto.
For the Mets, the need to add a pair of blue-chip prospects outweighed the team's desire to field the best possible team in 2013. The team's farm system was ranked 26th in baseball by Baseball America prior to the trade. They added a consensus top 25 prospect in catcher D'Arnaud, plus a top 100 prospect in righty Syndergaard. The deal pushed their system into the 18-20 range overall, according to BA's Jim Callis. With Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Syndergaard, and Jon Niese, the Mets could have an intriguing, affordable rotation in place by 2015.
In the shorter-term, the Mets addressed the departures of Dickey and relievers Ramirez and Rauch by adding bargain free agents Marcum and Lyon and other potentially useful veterans on minor league deals.
Questions Remaining
When will the Alderson regime start spending significant money on new players? The time to pounce could be the 2013-14 offseason, when players such as Johan Santana, Jason Bay, John Buck, and Frank Francisco come off the books. The 2014 club has only Wright and Niese under contract, plus potentially decent arbitration contracts for Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, and Bobby Parnell. It might be appropriate to bring in a few corner outfielders and late-inning relievers.
For 2013, the team's outfield could be quite bad. The Mets could begin the season with players like Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Collin Cowgill, and Marlon Byrd holding starting positions. The silver lining is that the Mets can offer opportunity, and could find a diamond in the rough.
There's also the question of the team's bullpen, which looks mighty shaky after Parnell and Lyon. Again, the one benefit of such a shaky group is uncovering a sleeper.
Deal of Note
Alderson snagged Marcum in January for just a $4MM guarantee, much less than I would have predicted at the outset of the offseason. With one of the slowest right-handed fastballs you'll find in the Majors, Marcum came cheap after missing two months due to an elbow issue. He posted a 3.59 ERA in 396 innings over 2010-11, so he's not far removed from solid mid-rotation innings eating.
Overview
The Mets have been a sleeping giant under the Alderson regime, parting ways with their best veterans other than Wright, avoiding free agency, and allowing their attendance to slip to 17th in MLB. A decent rotation won't be enough to overcome the team's gaping holes in 2013, but perhaps the season will provide a sneak preview for the Mets' return to relevance in the coming years.
Why I Chose My Agency: Aramis Ramirez
Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez has received MVP votes in five different seasons. The accomplished slugger spoke to MLBTR today about why he chose his agent, Paul Kinzer of Kinzer Management Group.
On when he first came into contact with Kinzer:
After I played in the New York-Penn League in 1996, I met him in the Dominican and at the time I didn't have an agent, so he was my first agent and my only one.
On whether other agents had tried to talk to him:
A couple of guys when I was playing in the New York-Penn League in my first year in '96, they approached me, but I wasn't really into it. I was just concentrating on baseball. I wasn't worrying about an agent, I was just in A ball, so it wasn't my main thing. Then I met Paul in the Dominican and he seemed like a real honest guy and I signed with him.
On the decision to go with Kinzer, and their relationship:
He had a couple of Dominican players back then, good friends of mine, Neifi Perez and Enrique Wilson. They both told me he was great, and I trusted them. There was a Dominican guy too that worked for him, Abraham Mejia, that I knew since I was 14 or 15.
We have a real good relationship, he's like a father to me. He was the best man at my wedding. It's not a business relationship between me and Paul. It's more like a friendship, a father/son thing. We've been together for so long…he loves my family, I love his, and we always keep in touch besides business stuff.
On recommending Kinzer to other players:
I have in the past. I don't really like that, but if there is a guy that doesn't have an agent, or a young player, I recommend him. I did with [Starlin] Castro when he was coming up. I told Paul he has to go to the complex and sign this kid, he was going to be good.
On his level of involvement in multiyear contract discussions prior to free agency:
I was very involved. That was between me and Paul. Even though he was with a big company before, it was only me and him. He kept me updated every single moment, and I want to be. It was my future and I want to know what's going on.
On the contract clauses with the Cubs that allowed Ramirez to void:
That was his idea all along, and it worked out well. We did it in Chicago a couple of times and that was a good job on his part.
On Wasserman Media Group parting ways with Kinzer last year, and how that affected him:
I don't really have a relationship with them. To me Paul is my agent, and I know he was with that company, but I guess it didn't work out. I'm sticking with Paul no matter what, he's my agent. It wasn't the company — Paul is my agent, and he has been my whole career. He let me know right away when they were going through the process of separating, and I told him it was not going to affect my relationship with him.
On how the free agent process unfolded after the 2011 season:
I just let him work. I always tell him that I will do my job on the field, he's got to do his job outside the field. He kept me updated, anytime a team called, or we have to go meet somebody. When I was a free agent a year ago we had to go to L.A. and meet a couple of teams out there. He just kept me updated every single step.
Other entries in the Why I Chose My Agency Series include David Wright, Matt Holliday, Jay Bruce, Jeremy Affeldt, and Adam Wainwright.
How Much Should The Angels Have Paid Mike Trout?
Earlier this month, the Angels renewed the contract of outfield sensation Mike Trout for $510K, $20K over the league minimum. Trout, of course, had an otherworldly campaign, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing second in the AL MVP vote. Baseball's collective bargaining agreement allows teams to set salaries for players who are not yet arbitration eligible, so Trout's agent Craig Landis had no leverage to negotiate.
That didn't stop Landis from issuing a statement, in which he said Trout's salary "falls well short of a 'fair' contract." Trout's season was uncommon, but good players with less than two years of Major League service being renewed is not. This became a news story only because of Landis' statement. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported this week that Landis implied to the Angels that Trout wanted a $1MM salary, which would have topped the $900K the Phillies bestowed upon Ryan Howard after his '06 MVP season.
Some might say the Phillies were foolish for giving Howard $520K above the league minimum in '07, because that gift did not buy enough goodwill to prevent the two sides from going to an arbitration hearing a year later. The same argument could be taken by the Angels, who chose not to make an exception to their service-time based pay scale.
In contrast, a few members of today's Clubhouse Confidential panel at this week's excellent SABR Analytics conference, particularly Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, opined that the Halos should have given Trout the million dollars he reportedly sought. Cameron's stance is that the Angels could have treated the extra $510K as a worthy public relations expenditure. The Angels would have made headlines for their generosity, and setting a precedent for their future zero-to-three players would not be a concern since Trout's situation is so rare. Now, it's your turn to weigh in — choose the number that you like best.
Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins
The Marlins have become synonymous with Major League fire sales after gutting the team once again.
Major League Signings
- Jon Rauch, RP: one year, $1MM
- Placido Polanco, 3B: one year, $2.75MM
- Juan Pierre, OF: one year, $1.6MM.
- Total Spend: $5.35MM
Notable Minor League Signings
- Casey Kotchman, Chone Figgins, Chad Qualls, Matt Downs, Kevin Slowey, Mitch Talbot, Michael Wuertz, Austin Kearns, Nick Green, John Maine, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jonathan Albaladejo, Doug Mathis.
Trades and Claims
- Acquired SS Yunel Escobar, IF Adeiny Hechavarria, SP Henderson Alvarez, OF Jake Marisnick, C Jeff Mathis, SP Justin Nicolino and SP Anthony DeSclafani from Blue Jays for SP Josh Johnson, SP Mark Buehrle, SS Jose Reyes, IF/OF Emilio Bonifacio, and C John Buck.
- Acquired IF Derrick Dietrich from Rays for SS Yunel Escobar.
- Acquired IF Yordy Cabrera from Athletics for RP Heath Bell.
- Claimed OF Alfredo Silverio from Dodgers in Rule 5 draft.
- Claimed SP Braulio Lara from Rays in Rule 5 draft.
Notable Losses
- John Buck, Yunel Escobar, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, Scott Cousins, Heath Bell, Chad Gaudin, Josh Johnson, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Mark Buehrle, Sandy Rosario.
Needs Addressed
Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria explained to reporters in February that the team needed to "push the restart button" after their splashy 2011-12 offseason spending binge failed to produce a winning club and the accompanying ticket sales in the inaugural season of the new ballpark. The restart process actually began in July, when the Marlins traded Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Edward Mujica, and Gaby Sanchez for younger, cheaper players. They took a step further in October, firing manager Ozzie Guillen and trading pricey reliever Heath Bell.
The team's actions up to this point were somewhat defensible. Jacob Turner, Nate Eovaldi, Brian Flynn, Rob Brantly, Zack Cox, Gorkys Hernandez, and Yordy Cabrera were acquired in those trades. The young players received had some warts, but the traded Marlins veterans were either impending free agents (Anibal Sanchez, Infante, Choate) or slipping in performance and/or overpaid (Ramirez, Gaby Sanchez, Bell, Mujica). Many teams would have chosen not to spend $95.5MM to retain the three free agents, would have welcomed the payroll flexibility gained by moving the other four, and might have deemed the Guillen experiment a failure after one year. The Red Sox, for example, pushed the restart button in a similar way by shedding Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto and firing volatile manager Bobby Valentine.
In November, however, the Marlins made it clear that they were not just retooling to take another shot at contending in 2013. The payroll flexibility was not about reallocating money toward other players; it was about keeping the money and slicing payroll drastically. The Marlins and Blue Jays shook the baseball world with a 12-player trade, in which the Marlins sent starters Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, starting shortstop Jose Reyes, utility man Emilio Bonifacio, and catcher John Buck to the Blue Jays. The Marlins ditched over $160MM in contractual commitments to Johnson, Buehrle, Reyes, and Buck.
Aside from the desire to reduce their financial commitments drastically, the Marlins acquired a collection of young players to bolster their farm system. In the view of Baseball America, they acquired two top 100 prospects from the Jays in the trade: center fielder Jake Marisnick (pictured) and lefty Justin Nicolino. ESPN's Keith Law seems to feel similarly about the total value of the pair. The Marlins also acquired useful young players in Alvarez, DeSclafini, Hechavarria, and Derek Dietrich (for Yunel Escobar). However, it is clear to me that adding the best young players possible was secondary to shedding contracts, because the Marlins would have gotten more back by auctioning off Reyes, Johnson, and Bonifacio separately while showing a willingness to include a notable amount of cash with Reyes. I think they would have had a harder time unloading Buehrle and Buck had they not been bundled into the megadeal.
When the dust settled, the Marlins obviously improved their farm system. By how much is subjective. Loria was quick to suggest his team's farm system is now fifth in baseball, a nod to Baseball America's rankings, as opposed to 16th as per ESPN's Keith Law. Loria left out the fact that the team's five best prospects, as ranked by BA, were already in the organization prior to the offseason purge. Ultimately the Marlins have a couple of very good outfield prospects, four years of Giancarlo Stanton, fairly interesting young players around the infield, and an enviable collection of young pitchers. The Marlins have at least drawn praise for choosing former catcher Mike Redmond to manage these kids.
Technically we should mention the $5.35MM the Marlins spent on Rauch, Polanco, and Pierre. They're veteran placeholders, something even the cheapest rebuilding team usually acquires each offseason. At least the Marlins can be a drawing card for low-rent free agents, since the team can provide playing time. Aside from Stanton, who is hopefully part of the Marlins' plan for the future, the team is bereft of veterans with trade value. A different team might spin a good first half from Ricky Nolasco plus relief for his $11.5MM salary into a decent prospect this summer, but it's reasonable to expect the Marlins to prioritize the salary relief.
Questions Remaining
There's an argument for the Marlins' binge-and-purge model, if done right. Baseball Nation's Marc Normandin made the case in November 2011 that the Marlins had "loaded up and burned down successfully twice now," and the resulting pair of championships beat rooting for the Pirates, even if the Marlins were also hard to watch between their '97 and '03 titles. One problem is that the Marlins didn't binge all that well in the 2011-12 offseason. Bell was a clear overpay from Day 1, Buehrle was the second-best free agent starter in a weak crop, and the team opened 2012 with multiple issues.
Binging and purging on free agents has major consequences: fans hate you for it, and free agents don't want to sign with you. The Marlins have taken a desirable place to play, Miami, and made it something free agents will make a point to avoid, as they do with a few other big league cities. As for the fans, it's easier for an owner to play fast and loose with them when the prospect of moving the team is still viable. Looking only at the roster and contracts, the Marlins' purge would have made them more valuable to a potential new owner if not for one thing: the $639MM, mostly publicly-financed ballpark they had built. Because of the toxic situation the Marlins' ownership created, it might take a three-year run of success to even see if baseball has a chance in Miami. The team would be in a much better position had they never binged in the first place.
Is there still a way to lock up Stanton and win back a few fans? Loria knows he'll have to let the 23-year-old slugger play out the season, at which point a commitment over $100MM may be required. Money talks, even the Marlins' money, but it might have to be a precedent-shattering deal to convince Stanton. The counterargument is to trade him this summer, since the team still has plenty of needs and Loria's reputation can't get much worse anyway. Before you cook up a lopsided trade proposal in the comment section, though, keep in mind that Stanton is far, far more valuable on the trade market than Reyes or Johnson was.
Overview
The Marlins chose an extremely unpopular path this offseason, although at least they didn't play it safe. Nothing Loria can say will change the public's perception of him and the team. The franchise might still be saved, if Loria eventually sells. It could be a nice situation for a new owner: Loria takes the fall for the fire sale, and maybe in two or three years the Marlins will begin a sustained run of success. But for 2013, at least, this team might not crack 70 wins.
Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves
The Braves crafted a dynamic outfield by acquiring the Upton brothers, but were weakened at third base in the process.
Major League Signings
- B.J. Upton, OF: five years, $75.25MM.
- Gerald Laird, C: two years, $3.3MM.
- Brian McCann, C: one year, $12MM. Club option exercised.
- Tim Hudson, SP: one year, $9MM. Club option exercised.
- Paul Maholm, SP: one year, $6.5MM. Club option exercised.
- Reed Johnson, OF: one year, $1.75MM. Includes $1.6MM club option for 2014 with a $150K buyout.
- Ramiro Pena, IF: one year Major League Deal
- Total Spend: $107.8MM.
Minor League Signings
Traded and Claims
- Acquired OF Justin Upton and 3B Chris Johnson from Diamondbacks for 3B Martin Prado, SP Randall Delgado, SS Nick Ahmed, SP Zeke Spruill and 1B Brandon Drury.
- Acquired RP Jordan Walden from Angels for SP Tommy Hanson.
- Claimed RP David Carpenter off waivers from Red Sox.
- Claimed OF Jordan Schafer off waivers from Astros.
Notable Losses
- David Ross, Brandon Drury, Eric Hinske, Lyle Overbay, Martin Prado, Nick Ahmed, Michael Bourn, Miguel Batista, Randall Delgado, Chad Durbin, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Peter Moylan, Zeke Spruill.
Needs Addressed
The Braves set out to secure two outfielders this offseason, and they wound up with an impressive combination in the Upton brothers. Justin (pictured) is 25 and B.J. is 28, so both players are in the prime of their careers. Justin, the first overall draft pick in 2005, has seemed on the cusp of superstardom for years. He put up big seasons in 2009 and '11, but showed disappointing power in '10 and '12. Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers publicly acknowledged entertaining trades for Justin for the second consecutive offseason, and finally pulled the trigger this time. It had to have weighed on the player's mind. Getting out of Arizona should be a big win for him, and playing alongside his brother is the icing on the cake. B.J., drafted second overall in '02, has had a very good Major League career. He's prone to the strikeout, and the subsequent low batting averages suppress his OBP. He's also a 25-30 home run player with strong center field defense. If he finds a way to cut down on the strikeouts, he too could unlock superstar potential.
The Upton brothers both bat right-handed, complementing left-handed bats like Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward. In Freeman, Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, and the Uptons, the Braves have secured a strong core of position players for at least the next three seasons.
The Braves' bullpen posted a 2.76 ERA and 3.06 K/BB ratio last year, so it was hardly considered a big need going into the offseason. Nonetheless, the swap of Hanson for Walden adds four years of control of another hard-throwing, intriguing reliever. With their bullpen, the Braves could shorten a lot of games. Plus, they've got depth in the event of an injury. Braves GM Frank Wren also aimed to secure quality backups at catcher and outfield, and the signings of Laird and Johnson fit the bill.
Questions Remaining
For all the excitement of acquiring the Upton brothers, is this team better in 2013? Prado had been slated to replace Jones at third base, and the Braves had to include him to acquire Justin Upton from Arizona. With Prado traded, Bourn departed for the Indians, and Jones retired, the Braves lost a third of their 2012 offense. Accounting for defense, swapping Bourn for B.J. Upton might be a wash in '13. And while Justin Upton has the higher ceiling, he and Prado could provide comparable value this year as well. Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco will man the hot corner, after Jones and Francisco took the bulk of the at-bats there in 2012. Johnson, the right-handed side of that platoon, actually hasn't hit lefties well in his career. The market for third basemen was weak this offseason, so Wren will have to be on the lookout this summer if the Johnson/Francisco plan isn't working. The team also needs a strong April return from McCann following shoulder surgery; he's entering a contract year.
After exercising club options on Hudson and Maholm, the Braves felt they had the rotation depth to deal Hanson and Delgado and cut Jurrjens loose. None of the departed starters were anything special in 2012, nor were they workhorses. Still, the team enters 2013 with no pitchers who reached 190 innings last year, a feat accomplished by 28 hurlers in the NL. Brandon Beachy should return from Tommy John surgery by July to give the rotation a boost.
Deal of Note
Though the Justin Upton trade is not a clear win for 2013 because of the loss of Prado, the latter had only one year of control remaining at the time of the deal. Upton has three, and he's still on the upswing. Delgado, considered among the top 50 prospects in the game a year ago, needs to develop into at least a mid-rotation starter for Arizona to prevent this deal from heavily favoring the Braves. It was a trade Wren had to make. No one would be surprised if Justin Upton becomes a perennial MVP candidate in his age 25-27 seasons.
Hindsight being 20/20, the loss of the 28th overall draft pick and a five-year, $75.25MM deal for B.J. Upton was a fairly steep price for someone with a .298 OBP last year. That's only true because Bourn and Swisher signed with the Indians for less than expected — Upton's contract seemed fair when it was completed in November. Plus, Upton is the youngest of those three by a long shot, and competition seemed stiffer for his services at the outset of the offseason.
Overview
The Braves should contend for the next several seasons, with a strong core of position players, good young arms in the rotation and bullpen, and a pair of top 100 pitching prospects in Julio Teheran and J.R. Graham. The Braves may not quite stack up with the Nationals on paper, but they're better off now than they were four months ago.




