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Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Several arbitration eligible Cubs stand a good chance of being non-tendered.  With a 6.31 ERA, Volstad had a terrible year, and paying him anything close to $3MM doesn't make sense.  Stewart was affected all year by a wrist injury, which culminated in July surgery.  MLB.com's Carrie Muskat quoted Cubs GM Jed Hoyer on the situation last month: "Obviously, we'll spend a lot of time getting to the bottom of how it looks going forward before making a decision on his future with us.  It is a year that's hard to evaluate given the wrist."  So, Stewart at least has some chance of sticking around.

Valbuena picked up a lot of starts at third base in Stewart's absence, and manager Dale Sveum told Muskat he sees the 26-year-old on next year's team.  Valbuena's numbers — .219/.310/.340 in 303 plate appearances — don't make a strong case, however.  Corpas didn't have a particularly good year, and seems likely to be cut loose.

Samardzija spent the year in the Cubs' rotation and authored a breakout campaign, just in time for arbitration.  It's tough to find good comparables, since the pitcher had spent most of his previous innings in relief.  We've got him at $2.9MM, though his agency could make a case for something in excess of $3.5MM.  If the Cubs look to extend Samardzija, perhaps Johnny Cueto's four-year, $27MM deal would be a template.  Russell had a solid year out of the Cubs' pen, but won't be expensive his first time through arbitration.

Garza pitched a bit more than half a season before a triceps/elbow injury cut him short.  We're projecting a pretty mild raise up to $10MM, but this is another situation light on comparables.  If Garza comes up strong in the first half of 2013, the Cubs must decide whether to trade him, extend him, or let him walk as a free agent (potentially with a qualifying offer).    

If only Garza, Valbuena, Samardzija, and Russell are retained, we're estimating $14.7MM in salary to four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Ziegler and Albers both posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2012, aided by strong groundball rates.  Look for both to be retained at reasonable prices.

Johnson, acquired from Houston in July, showed increased power for Arizona in a limited sample and will come into 2013 as the team's likely starter at the hot corner.  He projects as a Super Two player.  Parra was an oft-used fourth outfielder for most of 2012.  A skilled defender, Parra may have an increased role next year if the D'Backs move him or another outfielder.

Kennedy's body of work — 46 wins, 684 innings, and a 3.76 ERA — is quite impressive and only a little shy of where Jered Weaver was prior to his first arbitration year.  With so many of the best starting pitchers locked into long-term contracts these days by the time they reach arbitration, our projection model actually has a pretty small sample with which to work.  So, it cranked out $4.6MM for Kennedy, which would be a first-time starting pitcher arbitration record.  In reality, we feel he will come in shy of Weaver, hence the "off-model" $4.2MM projection above.

Regardless, Kennedy is due for a very strong first-year arbitration salary.  It's possible the D'Backs will look to lock him up, saving some money for 2013 in the process.  The standard four-year, $30MM contract we've seen so often has been for pitchers with less than three years of service, whereas Kennedy is well past that point.  Gio Gonzalez's five-year, $42MM contract might be a better target, although it's not a perfect match since Gonzalez was a Super Two.

Nieves, Zagurski, Ransom, and Bergesen are the team's non-tender candidates.  If Henry Blanco returns as Miguel Montero's backup, Nieves will not be needed.  Zagurski was removed from Arizona's 40-man roster in April and August, and he'll probably be removed again.  The D'Backs also removed Ransom in May, though they brought him back in an August waiver claim.  Bergesen was acquired from Baltimore in a July waiver claim, and it's debatable whether the club will want him back for a long relief role.

Assuming only Ziegler, Albers, Johnson, Parra, and Kennedy are retained, we're projecting $12.6MM in salary for arbitration eligible Diamondbacks for 2013.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: New York Mets

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The Mets are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The Mets have nine arbitration eligible players, but more than half stand a good chance of being non-tendered.  Pelfrey had Tommy John surgery in May, and even with his recovery going well there's no reason to pay him nearly $6MM again.  Seeing as how the former first-rounder is a client of the Boras Corporation, he'll probably be reluctant to allow for a club option when he signs somewhere as a free agent.

The Giants have been thrilled with Angel Pagan, but a change of scenery didn't help Torres on the other end of that trade.  Torres' ineffective season was marred by injuries, and he'll be cut loose.  Acosta was removed from the Mets' 40-man roster in May and re-added later; he'll be off it again soon.  Johnson struggled at both Triple-A and in the Majors, ending his season with a ligament tear in his thumb.  Lewis spent little time with the Mets this year and is also likely to be removed from the 40-man.

Davis and Thole will be arbitration eligible as Super Two players.  The Mets were rewarded for sticking with Davis, who was brutal for the season's first two months and then hit .253/.341/.536 with 27 home runs in 413 plate appearances the rest of the way.  If the Mets feel good about Davis' future, perhaps they could look to extend him now with some variant of Billy Butler's four-year, $30MM contract.  Thole had a rough year, but at a low projected salary he can be retained as a backup and personal catcher for R.A. Dickey.

Murphy is penciled in as the team's second baseman after a solid 2012 campaign.  Parnell hasn't had much success closing out games in his career to date, but overall he had a strong year and will have a key role in next year's bullpen.

Assuming only Murphy, Parnell, Davis, and Thole are retained, we're projecting $8.5MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  For more on the Mets, check out Ben Nicholson-Smith's offseason outlook.

Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

In Wood and Paulino, the Royals have a pair of promising pitchers who endured Tommy John surgery this year.  Both are worth retaining (Wood seems likely to garner Super Two status).  Despite a myriad of injuries, Getz worked his way into a starting role for the Royals at second base toward the end of his season.  I expect the team to keep him in the mix.

Hochevar, drafted first overall in 2006, has a 5.39 ERA through 771 big league innings, including a 5.73 mark this year.  If you're digging for a silver lining, the 29-year-old throws relatively hard, takes the ball every fifth day, and has exhibited skills suggesting an ERA closer to 4.20.  Given Hochevar's maddening flashes of brilliance, it seems the Royals are up for another go-round at our estimated $4.4MM salary.

The offensive promise once shown by Pena seems long gone.  Still, the 30-year-old Cuban wants to retire a Royal, and it won't require much of a raise to keep him around as Salvador Perez's backup for 2013.  Assuming everyone is retained in the Royals' group, we're projecting $10MM in salary for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: San Diego Padres

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The Padres are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  With a dozen players, they have one of the largest arbitration groups.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

In Moseley, Owings, Stauffer, and Blanks, the Padres have four arbitration eligible players who barely played in 2012 due to injury.  Moseley had April shoulder surgery and is likely to be cut loose.  Owings, who wants to focus on being a position player, had elbow surgery in July and is another likely non-tender.  

Paying Stauffer $3.2MM again would be risky given his August 31st surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his elbow.  Padres manager Bud Black told MLB.com's Corey Brock Stauffer will be "ready to go by Spring Training," but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be tendered a contract next month.  The 30-year-old had a breakout 2011 season and was ticketed for the 2012 Opening Day nod, so clearly there's talent here.  The ideal scenario for the Padres would be to non-tender Stauffer and then quickly re-sign him for less guaranteed money.  Failing that, they could tender him a contract and, if things look bleak in Spring Training, cut him then and owe about $530K.

Blanks had been ticketed for the minors, in which case he would not have been arbitration eligible, but he found his way onto the Padres' 25-man roster due to Carlos Quentin's injury.  Blanks quickly went down with season-ending shoulder surgery, but the 26-year-old is still interesting and cheap enough that the Padres wouldn't be risking much by tendering him a contract and seeing how he looks in Spring Training. 

Baker seems a capable backup catcher, and he actually caught as many games for the Padres as Yasmani Grandal and Nick Hundley this year.  Grandal is the clear starter for 2013, and Hundley might have first track at the backup job given the $7MM guaranteed to him through 2014.  The Padres still seem likely to retain Baker, so maybe Hundley will become trade bait.

Richard and Volquez emerged as the leaders of the Padres' rotation this year and are locked in for 2013. Volquez, the more explosive pitcher of the pair, will be entering his walk year and would like to remain with the club beyond 2013.  He seems to prevent home runs and hits enough to survive in Petco despite an MLB-leading walk total.  Richard might be Volquez's mirror image, with a stellar walk rate and MLB-worst hits allowed total.  I wouldn't attempt to lock up either pitcher at this point.

Relievers Thatcher and Gregerson had solid campaigns, with Gregerson picking up nine saves and 24 holds.  Thatcher will soon undergo knee surgery that could have him behind in Spring Training, but I see no reason the Padres wouldn't keep him around.  Venable did a nice job as the team's primary right fielder, especially away from Petco.  Cabrera provided value on the basepaths, and while the rest of his game is lacking, he'll be tendered a contract as an expected Super Two player.

Near the trade deadline, a Headley deal was actually considered likely, but GM Josh Byrnes wisely kept his asking price high.  The 28-year-old third baseman stayed with the Padres and went off in the season's final two months, to a point where MVP votes would be justified.  Matt Swartz has Headley, a client of Hendricks Sports, snagging nearly a $5MM raise en route to an $8.3MM salary.  Headley qualified as a Super Two player in 2010, so this will be his third time through arbitration and he'll have one more after that.

Headley's agency hasn't done many arbitration year extensions in recent years, though Byrnes is no stranger to such contracts.  Though the Padres' GM might prefer to use some 2013 data to determine whether Headley is an MVP-caliber player or more of an above-average regular, the price goes up the longer he waits.  One potential comparable is Kevin Youkilis, who signed a four-year, $41.25MM deal with the Red Sox after a breakout '08 season, also with four-plus years of service.  A more recent comp might be Alex Gordon's four-year deal, worth $50MM if he exercises a player option at the end.

Assuming Moseley, Owings, and Stauffer are non-tendered and no one signs a multiyear extension, we're estimating $27.4MM in salary for nine remaining arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

At 1.45 per nine innings, Vargas' home run rate ranked seventh-worst in baseball among qualified starters this year.  With the Mariners moving their fences in for 2013, Vargas' gopheritis could become an even larger problem at a time when his salary is expected to exceed $7MM.  On the surface, his 2012 performance of a 3.85 ERA in 217 1/3 innings seems like it'd have mild trade value even at our projected salary.  On the other hand, the Diamondbacks were unable to find a trade partner for a similar pitcher in Joe Saunders in advance of last year's non-tender deadline and chose to cut him loose.  Saunders had a higher projected salary than Vargas does, but Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik will have to make a tough decision by the November 30th non-tender deadline.

Ryan, the Mariners' starting shortstop, finished a multiyear deal and projects at a fairly modest raise through arbitration.  His offense was worse than ever this year, but his unparalleled glovework coupled with the team's lack of an MLB-ready replacement should compel the Mariners to keep him around.

Jaso, Kelley, and Kinney should be in good standing for 2013.  Relievers Kelley and Kinney both spent time in the minors this year, but each whiffed more than a batter per inning in the bigs and should earn less than a million bucks.

Center fielder Michael Saunders falls one day short of the projected Super Two cutoff.  If he were to snag Super Two status, we project him for $1.6MM.

Assuming Kinney, Jaso, Kelly, Vargas, and Ryan are retained, we're estimating a $13MM commitment for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  For more on the Mariners' offseason outlook, read Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent article.

Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Burton, signed to a minor league deal last November, was a bright spot this year for the Twins.  He picked up 18 holds and five saves and will be a key member of next year's bullpen.  Unless the MLBPA's projected Super Two cutoff of two years and 139 days proves high, reliever Alex Burnett will fall a few days short and can be renewed at the minimum salary.  Otherwise, we estimate an $800K salary.

The remaining three arbitration eligible Twins should be considered non-tender candidates.  Duensing probably has the best shot at sticking around, even if he's better off relieving (3.47 ERA) than starting (6.92 ERA).  Casilla played his way out of the Twins' starting second base job and may be cut loose.  As a third catcher with no offensive skills, Butera's time on a 40-man roster will be up soon. 

Assuming Burton and Duensing are tendered contracts, the Twins would be looking at an estimated $3.4MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.  For more on the Twins' offseason outlook, read Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent article.

Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros

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The Astros kick off our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Norris, 27, authored an uneven season leading up to his first arbitration year.  He posted a stellar 1.71 home ERA versus 6.94 on the road, for an overall 4.65 platform year ERA that won't lead to big arbitration bucks.  Norris also comes up short on wins, another important stat for pitchers in arbitration.  He's won only 28 of 97 career starts, but at least gets credit for the innings.  Other first-time starters such as Doug Fister and Mike Leake will come into play for Norris' arbitration discussions.  Beyond his 2013 salary, the broader question is whether Astros GM Jeff Luhnow will attempt to extent Norris at some point.  Prior to this season, Luhnow told Milo Hamilton Norris was "a critical part of the plan moving forward."

The Astros acquired Lowrie as part of the Mark Melancon trade with Boston in December of last year, and the shortstop stayed true to his history of solid production in injury-shortened seasons.  To be fair, the 28-year-old's injuries have mostly been freakish in nature, and Luhnow noted in a June MLB.com chat, "while I’d never say anyone is untradeable, he’s not likely to go anywhere for a while…or longer!"  Though Lowrie has just 353 games under his belt, he has racked up big league service time, so he'll be eligible for free agency after 2014.  This offseason would be a fine time for Luhnow to hammer out a team-friendly extension.  Yunel Escobar's contract might be a good model, but with less guaranteed money.

The Astros also have a pair of first-time relievers on the docket in Lopez and Wright, and both should be affordable in lieu of big saves or holds totals.  Lopez can ramp up his salary dramatically if he holds onto the team's closing job for all of 2013.  Gonzalez is the team's lone non-tender candidate, as he's barely sniffed the Majors since '09 and the Astros waited until September to grant him a 40-man roster spot.  Assuming he is cut loose, the Astros will have an estimated $7.1MM in 2013 salaries for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Pirates Release Erik Bedard

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The Pirates released lefty Erik Bedard, reported Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on Sulia.  Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette later confirmed the story.  The Pirates confirmed that they have released Bedard and announced that they'll make a related move this afternoon.

Bedard, 33, posted a 5.01 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.00 HR/9, and 43.3% groundball rate in 125 2/3 innings this year.  The Bucs signed Bedard in December to a one-year, $4.5MM free agent deal, so they still owe him about $910K.  Assuming Bedard hooks on somewhere, he's on track to reach 130 innings for the first time since 2007.  He's had some nice runs this year, but an 8.79 ERA over his past three outings may have been the nail in the coffin for the Pirates as they battle for a wild card spot. 

Veteran Kevin Correia could be a candidate to replace Bedard in the team's rotation.  A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez and Jeff Karstens round out the Pirates' starting five.

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