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Quick Hits: Epstein, Ozzie, Beltran

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Links for Tuesday, as the Red Sox and Braves try to fend off several wild card challengers…

  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein failed to accumulate the necessary pitching depth, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Epstein has become a popular target this month, but the criticism holds more water for me if the author was pointing out the team's depth issues before the season or in July.  Morosi, to his credit, questioned Boston's rotation in April.
  • On a similar note, the John Lackey contract looks ugly right now.  But it wasn't regarded that way when Lackey signed in December of 2009.  In fact, ESPN's Jayson Stark did a poll of "20 wise baseball men" prior to the 2010 season, and Lackey's contract was voted the best signing of the offseason (right before Chone Figgins).  
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen hopes to learn about his future before leaving for a trip to Spain in early October, he told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.  Guillen has a year left on his contract, so the White Sox don't necessarily have to follow that timeline.
  • Scott Boras will have lunch with the Giants' Carlos Beltran today to determine the right fielder's free agency goals, he told the Associated Press yesterday at the Moneyball premiere.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney tells stories of how Padres GM Randy Smith came to acquire Trevor Hoffman from the Marlins, and how the Yankees considered trading Mariano Rivera before they realized what they had.

Mets Rumors: Closer, Reyes, Wright

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The Mets currently project for the 13th overall draft pick next June, same as this year.  The latest on the club:

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson talked at length about closers yesterday, as usual leaving the door open for most possibilities.  He explained to ESPN's Adam Rubin that the closer position "needs to be a point of concentration for us," and wouldn't rule out signing one of the big-name free agent closers.  He added, "There are no concessions from me," implying he's not interested in signing a stopgap closer.  On the other hand, a "cheap, proven veteran" is exactly the route Mike Puma of the New York Post expects Alderson to take after listening to the GM make the same comments.  No matter what the Mets decide to do, it'll all be covered in detail at our @CloserNews Twitter feed and CloserNews.com.
  • Alderson expects to know early on which direction the Jose Reyes situation is headed, he told Rubin.  He won't count on an early resolution, but he admitted "everything will be contingent on how that turns out."  Ruben Tejada appears to be Plan B for the Mets at shortstop, writes David Lennon of Newsday.
  • Third baseman David Wright is showing greatly diminished range, a rival scout tells Andrew Keh of the New York Times.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Cuddyer

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The Twins are all Michael Cuddyer has ever known.  They drafted him ninth overall as a high school shortstop in 1997, and he reached the Majors in 2001.  Cuddyer's Twins career has spanned 11 seasons and 1,130 games (plus 22 in the postseason) to date.  He's mostly played right field, but has also logged innings at the infield corners and second base.  Cuddyer's career batting line is .271/.343/.451, which is similar to his work this year.

Cuddyer

Cuddyer has earned about $29MM in his career, most of which comes from a multiyear contract he signed in January of 2008.  That became a four-year deal when the Twins exercised his $10.5MM option for 2011.  33 years old in March, Cuddyer is closer than he's ever been to free agency.  The Twins held on to him at both trade deadlines this year, despite interest from the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Red Sox, and Angels.  Cuddyer wants to stay, and the Twins reportedly floated a two-year, $16MM deal in August.  Joe Christensen said talks didn't get beyond that trial balloon, and the player prefers to resume talks after the season.  Cuddyer is represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, as our agency database shows. 

In our latest Elias Rankings projections, Cuddyer profiles as a Type A free agent.  The Twins clearly want him back, but offering arbitration would result in a salary north of this year's $10.75MM salary.  My guess is that the Twins won't consider the draft picks worth the risk and will not offer arbitration if it gets to that point.  Cuddyer figures to be a popular free agent target in a market light on offensive depth, and his value will only increase if he doesn't cost a draft pick.  I think Cuddyer could find three years and $30MM on the open market, so the Twins might have to improve their offer to something in the three-year, $27MM range to get a deal done.  He "might need some convincing" to re-sign, tweeted ESPN 1500's Phil Mackey yesterday.  If talks with the Twins fall through, teams like the Red Sox, Athletics, Cubs, Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants are speculative suitors.  

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Talks Slow Between Berkman, Cardinals

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Contract talks between right fielder Lance Berkman and the Cardinals have slowed due to a difference of opinion over the player's worth, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Ideally the Cardinals would wrap up new contracts with Berkman and Rafael Furcal before month's end, leaving fewer question marks heading into the Albert Pujols negotiations.  They extended Chris Carpenter earlier this month.

Berkman had plenty to say to Strauss on the topic of his next contract.  He told Strauss "this is not an adversarial situation," but explained, "It's always about money.  No matter what people say, it's always about the money."

Berkman made additional comments that imply the Cardinals are trying to attach an option year or incentives to a potential one-year deal, whereas he wants one year with no strings attached.  Berkman appears to believe that he'll be taking a discount to re-sign with St. Louis, as in his opinion his production isn't that far off from Pujols and Prince Fielder.

The big difference is that Berkman will turn 36 in February, and the over/under on his games played for 2012 should be set around 135.  His production with the Cardinals has returned to his '08 level, as Berkman is hitting .299/.412/.558 with 31 home runs in 549 plate appearances.  I think a salary around $12MM would be a fair compromise.

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011.  That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.

We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM.  Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM.  He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings.  Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.

Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM.  Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade. 

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Heyman On Fielder, Rollins, Madson

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SI's Jon Heyman leads his column by ranking the favorites for Prince Fielder, putting the Brewers sixth while noting that owner Mark Attanasio "should never be counted out and is expected to make one final run" to retain his slugger.  Heyman's other notes:

  • The Phillies "very much" want to re-sign shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Heyman thinks the Phillies are willing to do a three-year contract while Rollins is expected to seek four or five.  Rollins, 33 in November, is hitting .268/.338/.395 in 582 plate appearances this year.  UZR continues to rate his defense as above average, and it seems likely Rollins will score an eight-figure salary for the first time in his career.
  • The Red Sox "are thought to have interest" in Phillies closer Ryan Madson.  Madson, a 31-year-old Scott Boras client, has a 2.54 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9, and 50% groundball rate in 56 2/3 innings this year.  Last week MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith explained that Madson will probably cost another team a draft pick, but a three-year deal appears likely.  In March, Madson said he wanted to finish his career with the Phillies.

 

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

The Rangers face one of the more sizeable arbitration classes we've encountered so far in the American League.  Blanco could be cut if the Rangers don't want to guarantee him a roster spot, though we're estimating only about $500K for his salary.  Lewis' $3.25MM club option is a slam dunk, as we're estimating a $6MM salary if he goes to arbitration.

Napoli's fantastic offensive year should push his salary to the $8.5MM range.  Cruz has again battled injuries, but he's in line for a healthy $6MM salary.  Deadline acquisition Mike Adams is looking at about $4.3MM in his last year before free agency.  Andrus, Harrison, and Murphy fall within the $2.6-3.2MM range, while relievers Lowe and O'Day project for $1.3-1.4MM.

All told the Rangers have a pretty expensive group, at an estimated $30MM not including Lewis and Blanco.  They have about $101MM in commitments for next year once you add Lewis and Yoshinori Tateyama but before minimum salary players are included.  That'd mark the Rangers' first foray past the $100MM mark since the Alex Rodriguez days, so you can see that simply squeezing in C.J. Wilson might require GM Jon Daniels to move some pieces around.  On the other hand, attendance is up over 5,000 tickets per game this year and payroll figures to be on the rise.

Tsuyoshi Wada Eyeing MLB

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Southbank southpaw Tsuyoshi Wada owns a 1.80 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2/0 BB/9, and 0.41 HR/9 on the season.  According to NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman, Wada recently reached the service time requirement for free agent eligibility and "is widely expected to make a run at an MLB contract this offseason."

Wada, 31 in February, is a Dallas Braden type with "a 86-87 mph fastball, a good circle change, and a solid slider," in the opinion of Newman.  Newman's biggest concern is whether Wada could handle the innings required of an MLB starting pitcher.

In an email exchange, Newman guessed that teams might view a two-year deal in the $8MM range as a reasonable risk for Wada this offseason.  Wada may be viewed by some as a reliever, though the pitcher's view on his role is not known.  Wada ought to generate decent interest this offseason, though the bigger name pitchers coming out of Japan will be Hisashi Iwakuma and perhaps Yu Darvish.

Your Poll Performance

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It's always interesting to see what MLBTR readers think in our polls, especially with thousands of votes coming in.  Looking through four February 2011 polls, how have you done?

How Many $100 Million Contracts?

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By my count, seventeen $100MM+ contracts have been signed in free agency, making an exception to include the $103MM commitment required by the Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka.  Here's the breakdown for recent offseasons:

For the 2011-12 offseason, will we see a return to the crazy money of 2006-07?  We've got a trio of $100MM locks with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Sabathia.  As with the better $100MM contracts in baseball history, these three are current superstars.  However, three additional players could tip the scales and give us as many as six $100MM deals this winter: Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish.

Reyes and Wilson may fall short – I could certainly see them in the $90MM range.  With Darvish it's more a question of whether he's posted, because five years later I do think he'd match or exceed the Dice-K expenditure. 

It's your turn: out of Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Reyes, Wilson, and Darvish, how many $100MM+ expenditures do you expect for the 2011-12 offseason?

How many $100MM free agent contracts in the 2011-12 offseason?
3 43.66% (2,719 votes)
4 36.98% (2,303 votes)
5 14.63% (911 votes)
6 4.72% (294 votes)
Total Votes: 6,227

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