White Sox Rumors: Cora, La Russa, Buehrle, Quentin
It's time for the White Sox to prepare for life without Ozzie Guillen. The drama continued today, with Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times reporting that the Sox dismissed Joey Cora via text this morning, in lieu of Cora managing the team's final two games. Cora is expected to join Ozzie in Miami, with pitching coach Don Cooper managing the club today and tomorrow.
- Tony La Russa isn't interested in managing the White Sox with Kenny Williams as GM, a source tells Cowley. Cowley says the rumored candidates to replace Guillen are Buddy Bell, Joe McEwing, and Sandy Alomar Jr. MLB.com's Scott Merkin expects Rays bench coach Dave Martinez to be in the mix as well. Back in May, Bell told Mark Primiano of South Side Sox he did not want to manage again. At any rate, Williams says he's already cut the list down to "a few select candidates."
- Mark Buehrle is making what could be his final start in a White Sox uniform tonight against the Blue Jays, since he's a free agent after the season. The lefty told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune he'd like to play two or three more years.
- "Some people with the White Sox think it's definite" that right fielder Carlos Quentin is traded this winter, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. Quentin would be appealing given his .254/.340/.499 line this year and the thin market for bats.
Ozzie Guillen Links
New Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen tweeted today that it's "weird to be in Miami," but he's very happy and ready to go. Today's Ozzie-related links…
- Guillen's contract with the Marlins is expected to run through 2015, according to ESPNChicago's Bruce Levine. In that same article, Jayson Stark explains how Ozzie's farewell blog post last night was erroneously published at MLB.com.
- Guillen didn't give it his all in 2011, explains Jim Margalus of South Side Sox, becoming disengaged with setting his lineups.
- Ozzie is worth the risk for Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, writes Yahoo's Jeff Passan.
- The parting of ways "needed to be done on both sides," White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
- Many of the Sox's number crunchers avoided the dugout during batting practice due to Guillen's dislike of sabermetrics, notes Gonzales.
- The Marlins "immediately become far more exciting" by landing Guillen, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports.
Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies won their hundredth game last night, and with two games remaining against Atlanta they have a hand in determining who they'll play when the NLDS begins Saturday. But for the moment, let's look ahead to their arbitration class as the next entry in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Wilson Valdez
- Second time: Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, Pete Orr
- Third time: Hunter Pence
- Fourth time: Cole Hamels
There is a case for non-tendering Valdez and Orr, though neither player would earn even $1MM in 2012. Francisco and Kendrick seem useful enough at $1.5MM and $3.3MM, respectively.
Pence and Hamels are the big-money cases. Pence projects at $11MM, a $4.1MM raise after he won his arbitration hearing in February for $6.9MM. Hamels signed a three-year extension in January of '09, but smartly left his final arbitration year open. With a $9.5MM salary this year, he's in line for more than $14MM in 2012. The Phillies plan to give Hamels a couple of relief innings tomorrow, with an eye on possibly getting him his 15th win. Matt Swartz tweets that the gesture would cost them an extra $200K in arbitration if successful, according to our model.
Retaining Kendrick, Francisco, Pence, and Hamels could cost about $30MM for 2012. Including Roy Oswalt's buyout, the Phillies project to have about $143MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. That's about $23MM less than this year's Opening Day payroll.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Pohlad Talks About Twins’ Future
Twins owner Jim Pohlad spoke to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune about the future of the team. A few highlights:
- Smith blames the Twins' disastrous 2011 season on "the perfect storm of injuries" as well as players failing to match their 2010 performances. He also admitted there were fundamental issues with players called up from the minors.
- Manager Ron Gardenhire and GM Bill Smith will be back in 2012, with Pohlad noting that the Twins are not a "knee-jerk reaction organization."
- Told about the potential $40MM+ the Twins have coming off the books, Pohlad said, "Well if what you just said, if that's true, that gives us tons of flexibility." The owner also said, "My guess is we're probably going to have to do more than one impact player."
- Pohlad was noncommittal on bringing back Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, and gave a non-answer regarding the team renewing their interest in Hisashi Iwakuma. Said Pohlad, "I think probably everybody is on our radar."
- Pohlad says the team's $115MM payroll is "going to come down naturally" but it won't be slashed and will be "right up there."
- Based on our arbitration estimates, a $105MM payroll could give the Twins about $30MM to spend in 2012 salaries.
Colletti: Dodgers Can Afford Long-Term Deals For Key Players
T.J. Simers of the L.A. Times talked to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti; here's the latest:
- Simers writes that "Frank McCourt has told Colletti that he will have the money needed to sign Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to long-term contracts this off-season as well as the money required to compete in the free-agent market." Simers suggests one way to pull this off would be to engineer lower 2012 salaries for the players, but that'd happen naturally since all three are arbitration eligible. If they go through the arbitration process, Matt Swartz's work for MLBTR suggests salaries of $15.1MM for Kemp, $7.7MM for Kershaw if he wins the Cy Young, and $11.8MM for Ethier.
- Colletti told Simers James Loney has eased his concerns, but the team needs another bat. Strong work in the season's final two months has pushed Loney to a .287/.339/.412 line, which could lead to the Dodgers tendering him a contract. Earlier this month, Colletti talked about improving the Dodgers' offense in the "most dramatic way."
- Colletti hopes to add a veteran reliever, but not a closer. He expects to go with a combination of Kenley Jansen and Javy Guerra for the ninth inning next year. For all the latest on closing situations, be sure to check out CloserNews.com.
Athletics Rumors: Crisp, DeJesus, Harden
The Athletics currently project for the ninth pick in next year's draft, though that could change by the end of Wednesday. The latest A's info, courtesy of Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle:
- Coco Crisp's agent Steve Comte agreed with Matt Sosnick's comments about the Athletics' offseason spending hinging on MLB's decision on the team's new stadium. Comte hasn't spoken to A's GM Billy Beane recently, but noted the long-term impact of the stadium issue was apparent back in Spring Training. Nonetheless, Crisp and his agent will keep an open mind and "see what the market brings." Crisp, 31, has a .267/.317/.384 line in 575 plate appearances, with 48 steals in 57 tries. It's been Crisp's healthiest year since '07, but he's posted his worst walk rate since '06. UZR suggests his defense was slightly below-average this year, but Crisp's ability to simply play a passable center field regularly makes him valuable. Given the state of the free agent market at the position, I think a two-year deal is probable. Slusser's sources expect the Giants to be interested.
- Signing Brandon McCarthy for a $1MM base salary was one of the best moves of the offseason, and the 28-year-old righty considers his season a successful comeback. For less than $2MM in total, he's provided a 3.32 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9, and 46.7% groundball rate in 170 2/3 innings. His ERA ranks 13th in the American League and his five complete games tie him for second. The cherry on top: McCarthy is arbitration eligible for 2012 and should be affordable again.
- Slusser talked to A's outfielder David DeJesus, who said, "This year wasn't me. I want to break things down and understand what went wrong." DeJesus, 31, slipped to .237/.321/.374 in 502 plate appearances and may have been affected by losing his status as an everyday player. Slusser expects the Padres to be in the mix for the bounceback candidate, who will become a free agent shortly.
- Righty Rich Harden said he'd "definitely be open" to returning to the A's in 2012. The 29-year-old made all his starts since his July 1st season debut, posting a 5.12 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.85 HR/9, and 31.5% groundball rate in 82 2/3 innings.
- Hideki Matsui is not really proud of his numbers this year, the designated hitter told Joe Stiglich of the San Jose Mercury News through a translator. Matsui, 37, hit .251/.321/.376 in 576 plate appearances.
- In our latest Elias Rankings projections, Crisp, Harden, and Matsui projected for neither Type A nor B status, while DeJesus projected for Type B.
Gomes Would Likely Accept Arbitration Offer
When the Nationals acquired outfielder Jonny Gomes from the Reds on July 26th, one consideration was the possibility of a supplemental draft pick. Gomes projected as a Type B free agent then, and still did as of a few weeks ago. However, Gomes wants to remain with the Nationals, and he told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that if the team offers arbitration, "I'll probably take it."
In Gomes, Rick Ankiel, and Laynce Nix, the Nationals have three veteran free agent oufielders. In the opinion of GM Mike Rizzo, "all three of them have had good solid seasons." Gomes, 30, is hitting .209/.325/.389 with 14 home runs in 372 plate appearances this year for the Nationals and Reds. He's shown an improved inclination to draw walks, though his power has been lacking. As a pinch-hitter Gomes has one hit and six walks in 43 plate appearances, but as a starter he's hitting .233/.347/.436 in 329 PAs.
Huntington Talks Offseason
With GM Neal Huntington under contract through at least 2014, the Pirates can focus on the upcoming offseason. Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke to Huntington yesterday; here are a few highlights.
- On first baseman Derrek Lee, Huntington said, "We'd like to have him return. It's a two-way street. He's got to walk through some things. Is he going to play next year? Does he want to play in Pittsburgh next year or does he have a better opportunity to do something different?" Lee, 36, hit .341/.390/.604 in 100 plate appearances for the Pirates since coming over in a July trade with Baltimore. If Lee confers with his family and decides to play in 2012, he'll likely be looking at a one-year deal below the $7.25MM base salary he earned this year.
- Huntington said the odds of the Pirates needing only six starters again in 2012 are slim, implying that the team will look to add rotation depth.
- Trades will be considered; despite their rebuilding process Huntington said the Pirates have prospects about which they're willing to talk.
- The Pirates have drawn 4,337 more fans per game compared to last year, an increase of almost 22%. The increased revenue will lead to a bigger payroll, but much of the increase will go toward arbitration raises. The Pirates' 11 arbitration eligible players are Evan Meek, Garrett Jones, Charlie Morton, Chris Resop, Steven Pearce, Brandon Wood, Ross Ohlendorf, Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Karstens, Jose Veras, and Jason Grilli. We'll have estimated salaries and non-tender predictions for you later this week in our arbitration eligibles series. The Bucs opened the season with just a $42MM payroll.
Marlins Open To Trading Nolasco?
Ricky Nolasco appeared to be off-limits as recently as July, but the Marlins may have changed their stance on the righty. The team will give serious thought to trading Nolasco this offseason, a source who spoke to a front office member told Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
The biggest issue with Nolasco is his performance; he posted a 4.67 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, and 45.1% groundball rate this year in 206 innings. In the past three seasons, Nolasco has posted SIERAs of 3.23, 3.37, and 3.64. However, the ERAs haven't matched up: 5.06, 4.51, and 4.67. The problem is that Nolasco has been so darn hittable, at about ten per nine innings over 2009-11. Nolasco's batted balls have been resulting in hits about 32% of the time, with line drives a frequent outcome.
Nolasco's velocity took a dip this year, as did his strikeout rate. But he remained extremely stingy with free passes, and showed signs of being able to prevent longballs too. There will probably be several sabermetric-inclined teams that consider Nolasco a buy-low candidate, especially if they can put him in front of a stronger defense.
On a personal level, Marlins manager Jack McKeon seemed to question Nolasco's determination, telling Rodriguez, "I can't figure him out. He's got too good of stuff to be a 10-12 pitcher…He better look in the mirror and see if he can make an adjustment or two. Evidently, the hitters are making adjustments to him."
Nolasco, 28, signed a three-year extension in December last year. He's owed $20.5MM over the next two seasons. I think the Marlins will be faced with a Wandy Rodriguez-type situation: there will be teams willing to take on that entire contract, but then the players offered won't be terribly appealing. We've seen in the past that when the Marlins want to move a player they do it, even if they don't appear to be getting great value for him. So it wouldn't be surprising to see Nolasco traded in November for a less-than-stellar return, freeing up cash for the Marlins to pursue a replacement.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Josh Willingham
Left fielder Josh Willingham has established career-highs in home runs and RBIs this year, with 28 and 94 respectively and three games remain on the schedule. On the other hand, a slipping batting average and walk rate have his OBP at a career-worst .335, and his defense doesn't come highly regarded.
Many teams seeking power this offseason will start with home runs, and among free agents only Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and David Ortiz have more than Willingham, with Carlos Pena even at 28. Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Beltran are at 25 and 22 respectively, and Michael Cuddyer would be at the bottom end of that range had he not missed time due to injuries. Pujols and Fielder come with price tags only a handful of teams can consider, while Ortiz requires a DH job.
Ramirez, Beltran, Cuddyer, Pena, and Willingham form the next tier of free agent hitters. The first three are probably looking at three-year deals paying $10MM or more per year. Pena and Willingham may have to settle for two-year deals. Willingham, in particular, probably will receive less than $10MM per year. I'm thinking something in the two-year, $16MM range.
Pena comes with the wrinkle of a perenially ugly batting average. With Willingham, the warts are his defense, durability, potential Type A status, and this year's OBP drop. Maybe next year his walk rate comes back up a bit, and you're comfortable penciling him in for 130 games instead of 155. The Type A issue could go away too if the A's don't offer arbitration. Or perhaps Willingham will never hit the market, if the team offers and he accepts. As we learned yesterday from Susan Slusser, the Athletics' spending decisions are on hold until they hear about their stadium situation. Agent Matt Sosnick said, "Josh and I both made it clear he'd like to stay, but at this point, I'm pretty sure he'll test the free-agent market."
Losing a draft pick for Willingham would sting, depending on what team signs him. A team like the Indians, with the first unprotected pick at #16, probably wouldn't want to make the sacrifice. The Dodgers and Giants also project to pick in the top 20. Willingham should still have a range of suitors, with the White Sox, Twins, and Reds also among the teams with potential left field openings.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.