At the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings in National Harbor, there’s one app on the phones of just about every attendee. It’s called Trade Rumors, and it’s available for free for iOS and Android devices. With Trade Rumors, you get all of our awesome MLBTR content (plus other sports if you’d like), as well as custom team and player notifications. Trade Rumors is ideal for staying on top of the Winter Meetings insanity. Download Trade Rumors today!
2016-17 MLB Free Agent Tracker
Day 1 of the 2016 Winter Meetings is drawing to a close, but the stage is set for plenty more action this week. To stay on top of all the free agent signings, make sure you have MLBTR’s free agent tracker bookmarked! Our new and improved tracker allows you to filter by position, team, signing status, handedness, qualifying offers, and contract years, amounts, and options. We’ll be updating it quickly throughout the offseason. The tracker is mobile-friendly as well, so give it a try on your phone. Check out our 2016-17 MLB Free Agent Tracker today!
MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest
Only a few hours remain in the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest! Click here to log in with Google or Facebook and predict which team you think each of the remaining top 50 free agents will sign with. For each player, you can select one of the 30 MLB teams, as well as Retirement, Korea, or Japan. Be sure to use the “Save Picks” button at the bottom each time you make a change. Make sure you have something chosen for all 50 players by midnight central time tonight. Finish your picks now!
This year, we rebuilt the contest to allow people to log in with Google or Facebook. We’re doing two things with your information: saving your picks, and displaying your name on the contest leaderboard (which is still in progress).
Other contest notes:
- Players in the contest who have already signed are considered freebies, although you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
- The leaderboard will rank contestants by “batting average” on correct picks. The leaderboard will show full names of contestants.
- Ties in batting average will be decided by totaling the ranking number of each correctly-guessed free agent and taking the lowest total, rewarding contestants for being right on better free agents. If people are still tied after that method is applied, prizes will be distributed at MLBTR’s discretion by choosing among tied contestants randomly.
- Prizes are a work in progress, but I do intend to give something out for the top finishers.
- If you experience a technical issue, please use our contact form.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
The impossible has happened. The Cubs won the World Series. Millions of Cubs fans are now contemplating something their parents and grandparents never could: a potential dynasty. While Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have a free pass for life in Chicago, they’re already plotting an encore. What’s next for the Cubs?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jon Lester, SP: $90MM through 2020. Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout. 2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
- Jason Heyward, RF: $149MM through 2023. Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
- John Lackey, SP: $12.5MM through 2017.
- Miguel Montero, C: $14MM through 2017.
- Ben Zobrist, OF/2B: $44MM through 2019.
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $27MM through 2019. Includes $14.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021. 2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes. Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
- Jorge Soler, OF: $15MM through 2020. Can opt into arbitration after 2017 season.
Contract Options
- Jason Hammel, SP: Cubs chose $2MM buyout over $12MM club option.
- Dexter Fowler, CF: Fowler declined his part of $9MM mutual option, triggering $5MM buyout.
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)
- Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
- Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
- Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
- Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM
- Munenori Kawasaki (3.002) – $800K
- Non-tender candidate: Kawasaki
Free Agents
- Jason Hammel, Dexter Fowler, David Ross, Chris Coghlan, Trevor Cahill, Travis Wood, Aroldis Chapman, Joe Smith
The 2016 Cubs had the best starting rotation in baseball by a long shot, and they had the rare ability to bring back the exact same group for 2017: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel. Instead, Epstein kicked off the offseason with a surprising move that won’t go unnoticed by future free agents. The Cubs declined their option on Hammel, who posted a 3.79 ERA over two seasons for the club. The 34-year-old might have profiled as the best fifth starter in baseball. The Cubs feel they can do better, and didn’t feel the need to exercise the option and trade Hammel, which could have brought a low-level prospect in return. Epstein said in a statement, “Our hope is that by giving a starting opportunity to some younger pitchers under multiple years of club control, we can unearth a starter who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.”
One internal possibility is Mike Montgomery, the 27-year-old lefty the Cubs acquired from the Mariners in a July trade. Montgomery pitched well in his five starts for the Cubs, though his control remains an issue. Montgomery also made the short list of Joe Maddon’s trusted relievers as the team continued through the playoffs. Moving him to the rotation is a viable option, though it would open up a hole in the bullpen. Southpaw Rob Zastryzny, the Cubs’ second round draft pick in 2013, is another rotation option. However, with a 4.31 ERA across 23 starts at Double and Triple-A this year, Zastryzny would seem a clear downgrade from Hammel.
The free agent market for starting pitching is historically weak. The only pitcher clearly better than Hammel is former Cub Rich Hill, a brittle lefty who turns 37 in March and would hardly fit Epstein’s search for a younger starter. That brings us to the trade market. Possible candidates include Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, and Shelby Miller, all of whom are controllable for multiple years. The potential prizes of the market are Sale and Quintana, but the White Sox could be reluctant to send one of their aces across town. The Cubs have plenty of position players they might consider trading, including Jorge Soler on the Major League side and prospects such as Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and Mark Zagunis. The Cubs already spent a few pieces from their stash this summer, trading Gleyber Torres to get Aroldis Chapman and Dan Vogelbach to get Montgomery.
The Chicago bullpen will require serious work this winter. Though Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop handled the late innings ably for much of the season for the Cubs, Joe Maddon seemed to lose faith in them as the playoffs wore on. With combined arbitration salaries over $11MM, I can see the Cubs trading one of them. Justin Grimm is more affordable, and despite some issues with free passes, he’s worth keeping around. Carl Edwards Jr. is locked in as one of the Cubs’ more trusted relievers. Montgomery will certainly have a spot if he doesn’t land in the rotation. Travis Wood may leave for greener pastures (and a rotation job) as a free agent, while Trevor Cahill and Joe Smith did not make the playoff roster and will likely be allowed to sign elsewhere.
It is difficult to picture a team as stacked with talent and flush with money as the Cubs, coming off a World Championship, not striving for a relief ace. The free agent market happens to offer two of them, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen. However, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out recently, signing Chapman or Jansen to a five-year deal in the $80-90MM range doesn’t fit with Epstein’s history. And Cubs GM Jed Hoyer recently expounded on “trying to be creative in finding bullpen pieces,” perhaps discovering the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis. Andrew Cashner, anyone?
While the Cubs could turn to the trade market for a dominant reliever, options are limited. The Orioles’ Zach Britton or the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera would be excellent two-year additions, but they are not known to be available. Davis, a potential one-year pickup from Kansas City, battled a flexor strain in his elbow this summer. Barring availability of the Indians’ Andrew Miller, I don’t see any other established top relievers the Cubs could pursue. Rather than bring in a lesser closer, they could just try to get Rondon back on track, as he had an excellent season before an August triceps injury. We also must consider Epstein’s ability to think outside the box, as he did in trading for Montgomery. If the Cubs’ front office is big on a Tyler Thornburg, Nate Jones, or Alex Colome, they could use their position player depth to pry one of them loose. Regardless of the closer situation, the Cubs may do well to add another lefty reliever to the mix, with free agent options such as Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, and Mike Dunn.
On the position player side, the Cubs have an embarrassment of riches. Behind the plate, 24-year-old Willson Contreras will be the starter after a strong rookie debut. Given his salary, the Cubs will likely go with Miguel Montero as the backup catcher replacement for the retiring David Ross. However, Maddon and Montero will have to clear the air after the catcher expressed discontent with the manager’s communication about his usage in the playoffs. It’s also not clear whether Montero can fill Ross’ role, particularly in regard to countering the large leadoffs baserunners are able to take on Jon Lester due to the lefty’s inability to make pickoff throws. Since Contreras is only 24, it may be possible for the Cubs to lean on him for 130-140 games while reducing the role of the backup and ending the idea of Lester having a personal catcher.
The infield corners are locked down with one of the best duos in baseball, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant. Bryant, a third baseman by trade, also logged innings at the outfield corners and first base this year. If the playoffs are any indication, Javier Baez has taken over the Cubs’ regular second base job from Ben Zobrist. Addison Russell is locked in at shortstop.
The Cubs’ outfield machinations will be interesting to watch. Fowler did an excellent job as the Cubs’ center fielder and sparkplug leadoff man over the last two seasons, and the team could easily afford to sign him long-term. But doing so would only exacerbate the outfield logjam, so they may have to let him go. In that case, the Cubs have two options to fill center field. One is Albert Almora, a 22-year-old who was the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2012. As a contact hitter who rarely walks and only has a touch of power, Almora would be an offensive downgrade compared to Fowler. On the other hand, he can make up some of that gap with superior glovework. The other center field option is Jason Heyward, who has seven years remaining on his contract. Heyward was slated for center field when the Cubs originally signed him, so it’s a possibility despite his limited exposure at the position. He did just win a Gold Glove as a right fielder. However, after a disastrous year at the plate, Heyward will spent the winter working on his swing, and the Cubs may not want to ask him to change positions as well.
Will Heyward’s massive contract lock him into a starting job for most of 2017, as it did this year? I expect the 27-year-old to break camp as a lineup regular, but Maddon did show a willingness to bench Heyward in the playoffs. Look for a shorter leash in Heyward’s second Cubs season. Zobrist, also signed as a free agent in the 2015-16 offseason, remains slated for regular playing time. He began 2016 as the Cubs’ regular second baseman, but the emergence of Baez has pushed him to left field.
So a Zobrist-Almora-Heyward alignment seems pretty good, right? The “problem” is that the Cubs also have one of the game’s best young hitters, Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber, 24 in March, made a surprisingly fast recovery from his early-season torn ACL and LCL, serving as the Cubs’ designated hitter in the World Series. Can Schwarber catch again, alleviating some of the outfield logjam? Even Hoyer doesn’t seem to have the answer yet, plus there’s just not a big need for him behind the dish. Save for 10 interleague games in American League parks, Schwarber will need to get most of his playing time as the Cubs’ left fielder. The need to get Schwarber into the lineup creates urgency for Heyward to bounce back offensively, as Zobrist could wind up in right field when Schwarber plays.
If the Cubs will have to do some juggling to get Schwarber, Heyward, and Zobrist enough at-bats, they’ll really have a problem finding room for Jorge Soler. Soler, 25 in February, is the Cubs’ most obvious piece of trade bait. The Cubs control Soler for the next four seasons. In 765 career plate-appearances, he’s hitting .258/.328/.434. In 86 games this year, Soler showed increased power and patience at the plate, but he’s still only a slightly above average hitter. He’s also pretty clearly a below-average defender and has been injury-prone in his career. Nonetheless, Soler’s ceiling may still tantalize some teams, as the former top prospect’s bat still has All-Star potential. In potential trades with the Rays, White Sox, Phillies, and others, the Cubs could attempt to acquire a controllable starting pitcher and/or reliever for a package centered around Soler.
Once free agency starts to die down in the new year, the Cubs may want to look into a few contract extension opportunities. Hendricks and Schwarber could be candidates. Bryant and Russell would certainly be of interest, though they’re represented by Scott Boras. There’s also the looming free agency of Arrieta, who turns 31 in March. The 2015 Cy Young winner picked up where he left off in 2016, posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 14 starts. Even in that period, however, his command had begun to falter, and in the 126 2/3 innings that followed (including the playoffs), Arrieta posted a 4.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9. That performance is more in line with a Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, or Trevor Bauer. Good, but not $30MM per year good. With a potential $105MM owed to Lester through 2021, a mega-deal for Arrieta looks a lot less appealing than it did a year ago. After 2017, Arrieta may be joined in free agency by Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Danny Duffy, Masahiro Tanaka, and others, so it’s quite possible the Cubs explore alternatives.
The Cubs had baseball’s best group of position players in 2016. Even if they subtract Fowler and Soler, full seasons from Schwarber, Baez, and Contreras, plus some level of bounceback from Heyward, might result in an even stronger group in 2017. Likewise, the Cubs are looking to improve upon an already-strong starting rotation. While the bullpen needs significant retooling, the Cubs project to have a good $25MM+ in the war chest to spend on new player salaries for 2017. The team is in an incredible position for years to come, suggesting 2016 was just the beginning.
2016-17 MLB Free Agent Tracker
Our 2016-17 MLB Free Agent Tracker is now available! Our new and improved tracker allows you to filter by position, team, signing status, handedness, qualifying offers, and contract years, amounts, and options. We’ll be updating it quickly throughout the offseason. This new tracker is mobile-friendly as well, so you can give it a try on your phone. Check out our 2016-17 MLB Free Agent Tracker and let us know your feedback!
Top 50 MLB Free Agents Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list came out yesterday. Click here to read the transcript of today’s chat with the list’s author and MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes.
2016-17 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our eleventh annual Top 50 Free Agents list! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our new and improved, mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.
New to MLBTR? You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, follow us on Instagram, and download our free app for iOS and Android.
MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Jason Martinez, Mark Polishuk, and Connor Byrne joined me in this collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations over countless emails and phone calls. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Let us know what you think in the comment section! Also, I’ll be holding a live chat on the site at 1pm central time on Tuesday to discuss this list.
1. Yoenis Cespedes – Dodgers. Five years, $125MM. Cespedes chose to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM remaining on his Mets contract and re-enter free agency, which came as little surprise. Last winter, an acceptable five or six-year offer never materialized for Cespedes, but we think he’ll have greater success the second time around given less competition and another strong year. Despite missing time with a quad injury, the 31-year-old Cespedes hit 31 home runs in 132 games, and also set a career best with a 9.4% walk rate. Though he did fake it in center field for 63 games with the Mets, Cespedes is better off settling in as a left fielder. I’ve long pegged Cespedes for a six-year deal, but I dropped to five after a more detailed look at his potential suitors. I imagine the Mets will again take an opportunistic approach toward Cespedes, leaving the Nationals, Giants, Dodgers, and Astros as other top possibilities.
2. Edwin Encarnacion – Red Sox. Four years, $92MM. Encarnacion, 34 in January, is neck-and-neck with Cespedes as the best hitter in the 2016-17 free agent class after hitting 193 home runs for the Blue Jays from 2012-16, including 42 this year. Encarnacion spent more time at designated hitter than first base in each of the last two seasons, suggesting his market is limited to American League teams. The Blue Jays were unable to work out an extension with him in the spring, but will likely still engage in discussions. The Red Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Astros, and Yankees are other possibilities.
3. Aroldis Chapman – Yankees. Five years, $90MM. Nobody on the planet can throw a baseball faster than Aroldis Chapman, and now the fireballing southpaw closer has reached free agency in advance of his 29th birthday. The lefty’s electric fastball has led to eye-popping numbers since 2012: a 1.84 ERA with a ridiculous 15.7 K/9 in 313 2/3 regular season innings. The Cubs acquired Chapman in July, and in the playoffs, manager Joe Maddon attempted to lean hard on Chapman for multiple-inning appearances. While the results were mixed, Chapman at least showed a willingness to be deployed unconventionally. Unlike fellow free agent relief ace Kenley Jansen, Chapman is not subject to a qualifying offer. We expect both stoppers to blow the lid off previous reliever contracts; Chapman has a shot at doubling the $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed five years ago. Certainly, a five-year deal for any reliever is not prudent, which is why we haven’t seen one in free agency since the Blue Jays signed B.J. Ryan in 2005. However, bidding wars tend to spark irrational contract offers. Any team considering signing Chapman must weigh his alleged actions on October 30th, 2015, which derailed a trade to the Dodgers and led to a 30-game domestic violence suspension to start his 2016 season. The Cubs may look to retain Chapman, and other possible fits include the Giants, Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rangers.
4. Justin Turner – Dodgers. Five years, $85MM. Non-tendered by the Mets after the 2013 season, Turner blossomed into a star for the Dodgers after they signed him to a minor league deal. Turner, 32 later this month, learned to turn doubles into longballs with the Dodgers, culminating in his 27 home run 2016 campaign. He also posted another strong defensive season at the hot corner. The result was a season worth 5.6 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, best among free agents. The Dodgers don’t have strong alternatives, but if they let Turner leave, teams like the Giants, Braves, Red Sox, and Angels could come calling.
5. Kenley Jansen – Cubs. Five years, $85MM. In 2009, Dodgers executive De Jon Watson convinced a 6’5″ light-hitting, strong-armed A ball catcher to convert to the pitcher’s mound. Now, armed with a cutter reminiscent of Mariano Rivera, Kenley Jansen is one of the best relievers in baseball. Though he’s not quite as flashy as Chapman, Jansen sports better control and his own dominant strikeout rate. He battled an irregular heartbeat in 2011-12, but was fortunately able to beat that issue with surgery four years ago. Should the Dodgers balk at a historic contract for Jansen, the Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Nationals, and Rangers could serve as alternatives.
6. Dexter Fowler – Cardinals. Four years, $64MM. Fowler is yet another player who is re-entering the free agent market after a disappointing 2015-16 offseason. Instead of the four-year deal we predicted, Fowler returned to the Cubs on a one-year contract in February. He led all free agents with a .393 on-base percentage in 2016, and reinforced his center field defense as at least average. Fowler will again have a qualifying offer attached, but this time we can see at least a dozen reasonable suitors. An openness to an outfield corner would boost Fowler’s market. The Cubs may consider a new contract in the wake of their World Championship, though they didn’t make a big offer to him a year ago and may need to free up their outfield logjam. The Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Giants, and Mariners could have interest in Fowler.
7. Jeremy Hellickson – Rangers. Four years, $60MM. When the Phillies acquired Hellickson from the Diamondbacks a year ago as mostly a salary dump, few would have predicted he’d be lined up for the largest contract of any free agent starter now. Hellickson, 30 in April, anchored the Phillies’ rotation with a 3.71 ERA in 189 innings in 2016. Skills-wise, Hellickson remains prone to the longball and didn’t change much from 2015. In terms of pitchers on this market who can take the ball every fifth day, Hellickson may be the best of a bad crop, and his contract should be surprisingly strong even if Ian Kennedy’s five-year, $70MM deal is out of reach. Assuming Hellickson turns down a qualifying offer from the Phillies and doesn’t reach a multiyear agreement to return, he could find interest from the Angels, Braves, Rangers, Astros, Marlins, Orioles, and several other teams. It would help to have a protected first-round pick in 2017, as the Braves and Angels do.
8. Mark Trumbo – Orioles. Four years, $60MM. The Mariners traded Trumbo to the Orioles last December as a salary dump, and he rewarded his new club by winning the home run crown with 47 bombs. Trumbo, 31 in January, has shown big power in the past with 95 home runs from 2011-13 for the Angels. While Trumbo’s power clearly makes him an asset on offense, he’s a one-dimensional player. He doesn’t get on base enough, and he’s a significant detriment in the field. This year he spent the most time in right field, but he’s also a candidate for left field, first base, and of course, designated hitter. While we’ve predicted four years here, Trumbo was saddled with a qualifying offer, it won’t be a surprise if he has to settle for a lesser contract later in the offseason. The MLBTR team has batted around potential fits for him, and we feel the best candidates are the Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers, A’s, Giants, and Rockies.
9. Ian Desmond – Phillies. Four years, $60MM. Despite an off year for the Nationals’ shortstop, and a qualifying offer, MLBTR predicted Desmond would land a five-year, $80MM contract in free agency after the 2015 season. Instead, Desmond concluded a disastrous offseason by signing a one-year, $8MM deal in February to serve as the Rangers’ left fielder. Desmond handled the position change well, ultimately spending more than 80% of his time as a center fielder and the rest in left. He also resumed his place as an above average hitter, managing a .285/.335/.446 line on the season. Notably, he tailed off as the season wore on, hitting .244/.292/.300 over his final 233 plate appearances. Still, Desmond re-enters the market as a quality center fielder, rather than a defensively-challenged shortstop. He can probably handle all three outfield positions, and possibly third base as well. Desmond’s stock has clearly risen in the last year, though he will again bear the burden of a qualifying offer. The Rangers may attempt to re-sign him, but the Orioles, Astros, Angels, Mariners, White Sox, Giants, Cardinals, Indians, Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, and even Nationals could be suitors.
10. Ivan Nova – Angels. Four years, $52MM. After Nova was pulled from a July 7th start for the Yankees in Cleveland, his ERA sat at 5.17. The year prior, he’d returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 5.07 ERA. Nova was traded to the Pirates with little fanfare at the deadline, but the righty put up a stellar 3.06 ERA in 11 starts. Nova allowed just three walks in 64 2/3 innings. The stint with Pittsburgh served as a reminder that Nova did have success with the Yankees in 2011 and ’13. Last winter, J.A. Happ was able to spin a successful Pirates stint into a three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays, covering his age 33-35 seasons. Nova doesn’t turn 30 until January, and unlike Jeremy Hellickson, he won’t cost a draft pick to sign. The weak market for starting pitching should benefit him greatly, and his list of suitors should resemble that of Hellickson. While we’re predicting four years for Nova, he’s never reached 180 innings in a season, and that will cause some teams to stop at a three-year term.
11. Mark Melancon – Giants. Four years, $52MM. Melancon, 32 in March, is the third top-shelf reliever available in free agency this winter. He doesn’t offer the huge strikeout ability of Chapman or Jansen, but no one can match Melancon’s 1.80 ERA over 290 innings from 2013-16. He’s served as a lockdown closer for three-plus years, and should get plenty of play from teams that prefer not to operate in the Chapman/Jansen financial stratosphere. The Nationals acquired Melancon from the Pirates in July and will attempt to lock him up. If they fail, the Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees could be among the top suitors. We can picture Melancon being the first of the Big Three closers to sign, allowing him to briefly hold the record for the largest contract ever signed by a reliever.
12. Jose Bautista – Blue Jays. Three years, $51MM. In February, massive numbers were floated regarding Bautista’s asking price for an extension with the Blue Jays. Regardless of the slugger’s exact demand at that time, the 36-year-old now faces an uphill battle in getting a fourth year on his next contract. Bautista endured DL stints for toe and knee injuries, playing in only 116 games this year. His power numbers declined, his right field defense remained an issue, and he comes with a qualifying offer. Still, Bautista served as the face of the Blue Jays in crushing 227 home runs from 2010-15. If the Jays don’t retain him, Bautista may be limited to AL teams like the Red Sox, Orioles, or White Sox. While we’ve predicted three years, a one-year deal could make sense for Bautista, as could an opt-out clause in a multiyear pact.
13. Wilson Ramos – Astros. Four years, $50MM. Ramos, a 29-year-old catcher, was in the midst of a breakout season when he tore his ACL and meniscus in late September. Ramos’ injury has a seven-month rehab timeline, so it seems he’ll miss the first six weeks of the 2017 season even in the best case scenario. Additionally, Ramos has questioned whether he can play for a National League team in 2017, given the lack of a designated hitter position. We’re assuming Ramos still takes the largest contract possible, but we can’t rule out a one-year deal either. He should still have a strong market, perhaps including the Angels, Astros, Twins, White Sox, Braves, and Orioles. The Nationals could not risk giving Ramos a qualifying offer, so he hits the market free of that issue.
14. Rich Hill – Yankees. Three years, $50MM. Hill’s story is incredible. After experiencing success with the Cubs as a late-blooming starting pitcher in 2006-07, the lefty with the big curveball endured shoulder and Tommy John surgery in 2009 and ’11, respectively. Hill then bounced around in many different bullpens in the Majors and and minors, to the point where he joined the independent league Long Island Ducks in 2015. A successful stint with the Red Sox in September last year, aided by some changes to his approach, led to a one-year, $6MM deal with the A’s. Hill proved he was no fluke, and owns a stellar 2.13 in his last 152 1/3 innings for the Red Sox, A’s, and Dodgers (including the postseason). Endurance is a huge question mark, however. Hill turns 37 in March, and in 2016 missed significant time with a groin strain and blisters on his throwing hand. When he’s able to take the mound, Hill has become dynamic enough to serve as Clayton Kershaw’s wingman. But how many innings he can provide is anyone’s guess. I believe his elite performance will still spark a bidding war that will lead to a three-year contract from teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Angels, Astros, Marlins, Red Sox, or Rangers.
15. Jason Hammel – Braves. Three years, $42MM. Hammel, 34, was the surprise beneficiary of the Cubs’ decision to decline his $12MM club option for 2017. According to a statement from Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, the parties had a verbal agreement that the team would not exercise his option and then trade him, and the World Champs are seeking a younger, controllable fifth starter. Hammel has been a steady presence for the Cubs over the last two seasons, posting a 3.79 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 1.28 HR/9 in 61 starts. He’s a flyball pitcher, and his strikeout and walk rates did move a bit in the wrong direction this year, but Hammel is still easily one of the best free agent starting pitchers. Though Hammel experienced elbow tightness in September, Epstein mentioned in his statement that the righty is healthy. Unlike Hellickson, Hammel did not receive a qualifying offer, so the team that signs him will not have to surrender a draft pick. Possible suitors include the Braves, Astros, Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Phillies, Yankees, Mariners, and Rangers.
16. Matt Wieters – Braves. Three years, $39MM. Wieters returned from Tommy John surgery in 2015. After a limited season for the Orioles that year, he was compelled to accept the club’s $15.8MM qualifying offer in an attempt to rebuild value. While Wieters re-established his health by starting 111 games at catcher, the switch-hitting former first-round pick had another mediocre year with the bat despite ranking eighth among full-time catchers with 17 home runs. Still, he doesn’t turn 31 until May, and will likely be seeking a four-year contract. The Orioles chose not to stick Wieters with a qualifying offer this time around, but could still have interest in a new deal. If the O’s don’t retain their longtime catcher, the Braves, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Twins and Nationals are possible fits.
17. Josh Reddick – Giants. Three years, $36MM. Reddick, 30 in February, had his free agent stock take a tumble after the A’s traded him to the Dodgers this summer. The right fielder ended up hitting .281/.345/.405 in 439 plate appearances overall, missing time with a fractured thumb. While his power numbers should bounce back, Reddick has shown an inability to hit left-handed pitching. Plus, his defense has fallen from Gold Glove caliber to below average in right field. He should still generate solid interest, potentially from the Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Astros, and Mariners. A four-year deal remains possible.
18. Neil Walker – Mets. Three years, $36MM. After an offseason trade from the Pirates to the Mets, Walker was enjoying his finest season until he had to undergo season-ending back surgery in September. The second baseman faces a three-month rehab process, but the injury could prevent him from receiving four-year offers. Plus, the Mets gave Walker a qualifying offer, which will limit interest from certain teams. A return to the Mets remains possible, or the Angels, Dodgers, and Athletics could take a look.
19. Carlos Gomez – Rangers. Three years, $36MM. Gomez, 31 in December, was a superstar center fielder for the Brewers in 2013-14. After a July 2015 trade to the Mets fell through, Gomez was dealt to the Astros. He was brutal for Houston, hitting .221/.277/.342 in 486 plate appearances while missing time with oblique, rib, and hamstring injuries. After being released by the Astros in August, Gomez joined the Rangers and experienced a renaissance, hitting .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs in 130 plate appearances. Gomez will likely attempt to land a decent-sized multiyear deal, but it’s possible he could settle for a one-year contract to rebuild value. He could also try for the best of both worlds, signing a multiyear contract with an opt-out clause. The long list of potential suitors could include the Rangers, A’s, Blue Jays, White Sox, Nationals, Mariners, Orioles, Indians, Dodgers, Phillies, Giants, and Cardinals.
20. Michael Saunders – Orioles. Three years, $33MM. Saunders, 30 in November, was traded from the Mariners to the Blue Jays for J.A. Happ in December 2014. A seemingly minor knee surgery became problematic, causing him to miss most of the 2015 season. Saunders burst out of the gate this year, making the All-Star team and hitting .281/.366/.536 with 19 home runs in 396 plate appearances through July. The wheels came off in the season’s final two months, in which he hit just .186/.267/.338. Saunders also registered subpar defense at the outfield corners. Saunders’ poor finish is likely what stopped the Jays from making a qualifying offer, so at least he won’t cost a draft pick to sign. The Giants, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Phillies, White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Athletics are potential suitors.
21. Mike Napoli – Indians. Two years, $28MM. Napoli, 35, signed a one-year deal with the Indians in January. He showed his best power in years, hitting 34 home runs in 645 plate appearances. He also inspired an Indians fan to create the “Party at Napoli’s” slogan, with subsequent t-shirt proceeds going to help sick childen. There are a few concerns about his game to consider. Napoli’s first base defense graded below average in 2016, after years of above average marks. Plus, his baserunning is a detriment. On the plus side, he hits the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer. If the Indians don’t re-sign him, the Orioles, Red Sox, White Sox, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, and Blue Jays could be interested.
22. Kendrys Morales – Blue Jays. Two years, $26MM. Morales spent the last two years as a quality designated hitter for the Royals. This season, he didn’t turn it on until June, after which he hit .296/.357/.531 in 423 plate appearances. At age 33, a three-year deal might be hard to come by, and Morales’ market is limited to AL teams with DH openings. Fortunately for Morales, he was not given a qualifying offer from the Royals. Possible fits include the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Rangers.
23. Greg Holland – Nationals. Two years, $18MM. Holland, 31 this month, was a dominant closer for the Royals before undergoing Tommy John surgery in October 2015. Holland’s contract will likely depend on whether he was able to demonstrate his health to teams in his November 7th showcase. If Holland is all the way back, interest will be strong. A two-year deal is possible, especially if Holland gets an opt-out after the first year. The Royals, Cubs, Giants, Yankees, Red Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Phillies, Mariners, Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, and Diamondbacks could be interested.
Special note: In Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, and Holland, there are at most four quality closers available in free agency this winter. With the Cubs, Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, and Giants all likely seeking closers, at least one of these clubs is not going to get any of these four pitchers. Keep in mind, also, that quality players are acquired via trade every winter.
24. Travis Wood – Marlins. Three years, $21MM. Wood, 30 in February, has done a credible job in relief for the Cubs for the last two years. Though the lefty’s peripheral stats aren’t great, in a thin market some teams will look at him as a candidate to return to the rotation. Wood broke into the Majors as a starter for the Reds, and even made the All-Star team during a 200-inning season for the 2013 Cubs. Wood’s youth and track record of durability could result in a three-year deal. The Braves, White Sox, Astros, Royals, Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Athletics, Padres, Mariners, and Rangers could be possibilities.
25. Neftali Feliz – Rockies. Three years, $18MM. After a terrible 2015 season, the Tigers chose not to tender Feliz a contract. The 28-year-old made good on a one-year, $3.9MM deal with the Pirates, striking out 61 batters in 53 2/3 innings while displaying a 96 mile per hour fastball. Feliz had Tommy John surgery in August 2012, and ended his 2016 season with a minor arm injury. Assuming the recent injury is not a concern, Feliz ranks as the top setup man on the free agent market. The Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, and Nationals are potential suitors.
26. Brett Cecil – Mariners. Three years, $18MM. After Chapman, Cecil may be the top left-handed reliever on the market. The 30-year-old was limited this year by a triceps strain, after which he punched out 36 hitters and walked five in 26 1/3 frames. Overall, his numbers were inflated by a 20% home run per flyball rate and .344 batting average on balls in play, both of which should come down. Cecil is tough on lefties and has shown the ability to retire right-handed hitters in the past. Tony Sipp’s contract could be a model, with the Mariners, Mets, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Cubs, White Sox, and Marlins as potential suitors if the Blue Jays don’t bring him back.
27. Brad Ziegler – Red Sox. Two years, $16MM. Ziegler, a 37-year-old side-arming right-handed reliever, boasts a 2.05 ERA over 136 innings from 2015-16 for the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. Among relievers, only Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller, and Zach Britton have been better. Though not known for punchouts, Ziegler whiffed more than a batter per inning after being traded to Boston. But his real calling card is his groundball rate, which is second only to Britton over the last two seasons. Opposite-handed hitters can be an issue for sidearmers, but Ziegler hasn’t experienced recent problems against lefty batters until 2016, when they hit .267/.380/.343 against him. Nonetheless, he looks like one of the top setup arms on the market, and can likely be had on a two-year deal given his age. A return to the Red Sox or D’Backs could fit, but the Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals are other possibilities.
28. Andrew Cashner – Pirates. One year, $8MM. Cashner, 30, hasn’t delivered on the hype since being traded for Anthony Rizzo in 2012. Even with a decline, Cashner is the hardest-throwing free agent starter (93.5 miles per hour on his fastball), but he’s never consistently missed bats. Plus, his groundball rate has steadily declined since his career-best 2013 season. Cashner had flashes of success in his Padres career, but was awful after a July 2016 trade to the Marlins. Plus, he’s only made 30 starts in a season once. Cashner remains somewhat interesting, but is definitely a project. The Rangers, Braves, Phillies, or Pirates could make sense, and the Orioles had interest at the trade deadline.
29. Jason Castro – White Sox. Two years, $15MM. Castro, a 29-year-old catcher, hasn’t hit much for the Astros since his 2013 All-Star season. As a left-handed batter, Castro has demonstrated particular issues against southpaws. Still, the former first-rounder is one of the game’s better pitch framers and should still serve as a starting catcher somewhere. A three-year deal is possible. The Astros will look to retain him, otherwise the Nationals, White Sox, Braves, Orioles, Angels, Rockies, Rays, and Twins could be interested.
30. Brandon Moss – Nationals. Two years, $14MM. Moss, 33, hit .225/.300/.484 with 28 home runs on the season for the Cardinals. His overall line was dragged down by a brutal September, and he continued to demonstrate an inability to hit left-handed pitching. Unlike some of the other free agents with this skill set, Moss may be passable enough in the field to be considered by National League teams. The Nationals, Rockies, Angels, Rays, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, and Blue Jays could be possibilities.
31. Luis Valbuena – Brewers. Two years, $14MM. Valbuena, 31 later this month, has long required a platoon but showed signs of life against lefties in a small sample this year with the Astros. Overall, the third baseman managed a solid .260/.357/.459 line in 342 plate appearances before hamstring surgery ended his season. Valbuena also has recent career experience at second and first base. The Astros may move on, but teams like the Brewers, Cardinals, Angels, Red Sox, and Mets could be interested.
32. Joe Blanton – Marlins. Two years, $14MM. Blanton, 36 in December, joined the Dodgers on a one-year deal and proved his 2015 resurgence was no fluke, posting a strong 2.48 ERA in 80 innings as the team’s setup man. While he doesn’t have big velocity, Blanton is able to get outs with a starter’s arsenal. Aside from his age, one potential concern is his low 32.5% groundball rate. Still, interest should be strong, with the Giants, Red Sox, Rockies, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Reds, Padres, Twins, and Marlins among the possible matches if the Dodgers don’t re-sign him.
33. Carlos Beltran – White Sox. One year, $14MM. Beltran, 40 in April, raked for 99 games with the Yankees this year but dropped off a bit after a deadline deal to the Rangers. Though he played over 500 innings in right field, Beltran is likely limited to an American League team. The veteran switch-hitter is putting the finishing touches on an illustrious career, and ranks fourth among active players with 421 career home runs. The Rangers could bring him back, or the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Astros, Royals, Orioles, or White Sox could have interest. A two-year deal is possible, if Beltran wants to commit to it.
34. Sergio Romo – Dodgers. Two years, $14MM. Romo, 34 in March, suffered a flexor strain in April and missed three months. After his return, he found his way back to the Giants’ closer role in late September. Romo has been a Giants mainstay since they drafted him in 2005, posting excellent strikeout to walk ratios every year since his 2008 debut. He can struggle with the longball, and at 85.8 miles per hour on average, he throws one of the slowest fastballs among all relievers. There still could be enough interest for a two-year deal, with probably a dozen potential suitors.
35. Sean Rodriguez – Padres. Two years, $12MM. Rodriguez, 32 in April, posted a surprising .270/.349/.510 line in 342 plate appearances for the Pirates this year. He showed off his versatility by logging innings at every position other than catcher. Such a strong utility season will attract plenty of interest, and Rodriguez could even land a three-year deal. The Angels, Dodgers, A’s, Giants, Braves, Padres, and Blue Jays could be potential matches.
36. Santiago Casilla – Reds. Two years, $12MM. Casilla, 36, is another reliever who seems like he’s been on the Giants forever. Casilla spent most of the last two years as their closer, putting up solid peripherals aside from issues allowing home runs. It might be time for a change of scenery, and a two-year deal is possible. Certain non-contending teams, like the Reds and Twins, may be able to offer higher-leverage innings to relievers like this.
37. Jon Jay – Indians. Two years, $12MM. Jay, 32 in March, was hitting .296/.345/.407 for the Padres until he broke his forearm in June. He may be able to break out of the fourth outfielder mold and find a starting job somewhere, in any of the outfield spots. Jay could be of interest to the Orioles, White Sox, Indians, Astros, Athletics, Phillies, Giants, Mariners, or Blue Jays.
38. Fernando Salas – Twins. Two years, $12MM. Salas, 31, was mediocre for the Angels this year but excellent after a trade to the Mets. Salas struck out 19 batters against zero walks in 17 1/3 innings for New York. He’s one of several right-handed, homer-prone relievers who will be seeking multiyear deals this winter.
39. Boone Logan – White Sox. Two years, $12MM. Logan, 32, signed a three-year, $16.5MM deal with the Rockies after the 2013 season. His first two seasons went poorly, but the lefty finally found success this year. Part of that was a low BABIP, and Logan does have issues with right-handed batters. Still, decent lefty relievers are often at a premium in free agency. The White Sox, Cubs, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Mariners are a few potential options.
40. Matt Holliday – Rangers. One year, $10MM. Holliday, 37 in January, traded walks for power this year, to his detriment. After providing so much value for the Cardinals since joining the organization in 2009, Holliday’s defense and health issues may necessitate a move to the American League for the twilight of his excellent career. Teams like the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Orioles, White Sox, or Royals could make sense.
41. Bartolo Colon – Mets. One year, $10MM. Colon, 43, has proven surprisingly durable in making 125 starts from 2013-16. He made the All-Star team for the Mets this year, despite little change in his pitch-to-contact, low walk skillset. The big righty could continue providing stability for the Mets, or find plenty of interest on the open market.
42. Steve Pearce – Yankees. Two years, $10MM. Pearce, 34 in April, continued his lefty-mashing ways in 2016 for the Rays and Orioles, but also had success against righties. He spent most of his time at first base, second base, and designated hitter this year. His bat remains interesting, and perhaps he can find the two-year deal that eluded him last winter. One mitigating factor is that Pearce had season-ending surgery to repair a flexor mass in his right forearm, which has a four to six month recovery time.
43. Matt Joyce – Athletics. Two years, $10MM. After a terrible 2015 campaign for the Angels, Joyce joined the Pirates on a minor league deal in February. He wound up starting 48 games in Pittsburgh, mainly as a corner outfielder, and also contributed off the bench. Joyce drew a walk in more than 20% of his plate appearances, contributing to a valuable .242/.403/.463 line. He could be a useful addition for the Orioles, Athletics, Blue Jays, Astros, Phillies, and several others.
44. Nick Hundley – Angels. Two years, $10MM. Hundley, 33, hit .282/.330/.455 in 706 plate appearances over his two years with the Rockies, leading all catchers in slugging percentage during that time. This year, at least, he was actually a better hitter on the road. He started 77 games at catcher for Colorado this year, a number that would have been higher had he not missed nearly a month with an oblique injury. Hundley has been one of the game’s worst pitch framers during his time with the Rockies, but I think he still fits somewhere as a second division starting catcher. He could generate interest from the Nationals, Braves, Orioles, Angels, Astros, Rays, and Twins if the Rockies move on.
45. Eric Thames – Rays. Two years, $10MM. Thames, 30 this month, logged 684 lackluster Major League plate appearances for the Blue Jays and Mariners at age 24-25, back in 2011-12. He headed to Korea in 2014 and became a star, crushing 124 home runs in three seasons there. While offense is greatly inflated in Korea, it’s possible Thames could return to MLB as a left fielder/first baseman/DH and provide a cheap source of power from the left side. Assuming Thames doesn’t return to Korea or head to Japan, the Orioles, Rays, Phillies, A’s, Giants, Rockies, Mariners, and Blue Jays could be possibilities.
46. Charlie Morton – Royals. One year, $8MM. Morton, 33 this month, is an under-the-radar rotation candidate who will sign a one or two-year deal. The Pirates traded Morton to the Phillies in December 2015, but he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in late April. Assuming the medicals check out, the groundballing righty should retain the skills for a sub-4.00 ERA in 2017. The Phillies could bring him back, or the Royals, Braves, Reds, Rockies, Astros, Angels, Marlins, Padres, Mariners, Rangers, and Athletics could be matches.
47. Edinson Volquez – Phillies. One year, $8MM. Volquez, 33, had the magic wear off in his second year with the Royals. Though he pitched slightly better than his 5.37 ERA indicates, Volquez has a thin margin for error since he walks nearly 9% of batters faced. He’ll be enlisted to soak up innings at the back end of someone’s rotation.
48. R.A. Dickey – Braves. One year, $8MM. Dickey, a 42-year-old knuckleballer, has had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard in his four years with Toronto. He’s not able to miss many bats, and his walk rate jumped upward this year. Dickey can still eat innings, assuming he finds a situation to his liking and wants to continue pitching. A note on the Braves: we’re envisioning a scenario where they sign a free agent to a short-term contract, and add a second starting pitcher via trade.
49. Chase Utley – Angels. One year, $8MM. Utley, 38 in December, generated quiet value as a league average second baseman for the Dodgers in 2016. His struggles against left-handed pitching continued, so he may need to accept a platoon role next year. If the Dodgers move on, the Angels or Mets could make sense.
50. Derek Holland – Padres. One year, $6MM. Unable to find a taker in a trade, the Rangers chose a $1.5MM buyout over Holland’s $11.5MM club option for 2017. Holland, a 30-year-old southpaw, had been in the Rangers’ organization since being drafted in the 25th round in 2006. He overcame a 2010 rotator cuff injury and had a successful run from 2011-13, posting a 3.98 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9 over 586 1/3 innings. Holland had microfracture knee surgery in January 2014. missing most of that season. A left shoulder strain cost him most of the 2015 season, and then shoulder inflammation cost him two months this year. He finished the season in the Rangers’ bullpen, and did not make the team’s division series roster. With a clean bill of health, Holland would generate solid interest on a one-year deal.
Honorable mentions: Kwang Hyun Kim, Hyeon-jong Yang, Jae-gyun Hwang, Daniel Hudson, Junichi Tazawa, Mike Dunn, Daniel Descalso, Colby Lewis, Koji Uehara, Mitch Moreland, Jhoulys Chacin, Rajai Davis, Pedro Alvarez, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Drew Storen, Kurt Suzuki, Brett Anderson, Jerry Blevins
Angels Designate Cory Rasmus For Assignment
The Angels designated 29-year-old right-handed reliever Cory Rasmus for assignment, according to Taylor Blake Ward of Scout.com. Rasmus posted a 5.84 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 5.8 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9, and 30.4% groundball rate in 24 2/3 innings for the Halos this year.
Rasmus endured multiple DL stints for a groin strain this year, culminating in July surgery. He returned in September and made five appearances to close out his season. Cory, younger brother of free agent outfielder Colby Rasmus, was a first-round draft pick of the Braves in 2006 out of high school, back when he had a number two starter ceiling. Rasmus was a supplemental pick the Braves had gained for the loss of free agent Kyle Farnsworth. The Angels acquired Rasmus a few days before the 2013 trade deadline, shipping veteran reliever Scott Downs to Atlanta in a trade between GMs Jerry Dipoto and Frank Wren. His best year in the Majors was 2014, when he posted a 2.57 ERA in 56 innings, including six starts.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
After a fourth straight losing season, the White Sox have not revealed their organizational strategy. Do they finally commit to a roster tear-down? Or will the team spend another winter attempting to add the right veteran pieces to complement its talented core?
Guaranteed Contracts
- James Shields, SP: $44MM through 2018. Shields can opt out after 2016 World Series. If Shields does not opt out, White Sox are responsible for $20MM for 2017-18. Contract includes $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout; White Sox would be responsible for buyout.
- Melky Cabrera, LF: $15MM through 2017.
- Jose Abreu, 1B: $34MM through 2019. Can opt into arbitration system for 2017.
- David Robertson, RP: $25MM through 2018.
- Chris Sale, SP: $13MM through 2017. Includes $12.5MM club option for 2018 with a $1MM buyout and $15MM club option for 2019 with a $1MM buyout. 2019 option increases to $16MM with Cy Young from 2016-18.
- Jose Quintana, SP: $16.85MM through 2019. Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and $10.5MM club option for 2020 with a $1MM buyout. 2020 option can reach $13-14MM based on 2016-19 Cy Young voting.
- Adam Eaton, RF/CF: $19.9MM through 2019. Includes $9.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout for 2020 and $10.5MM club option for 2021 with a $1.5MM buyout. 2021 option can reach $13MM based on 2016-20 MVP voting.
- Nate Jones, RP: $5.85MM through 2018. Includes club options for 2019-21, with salaries depending on games finished and on whether Jones requires right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season.
Contract Options
- Matt Albers, RP: $3MM club option with a $250K buyout (declined).
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)
- Miguel Gonzalez (5.073) – $2.6MM
- Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
- Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
- Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
- Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
- Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
- Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K
- Jose Abreu (3.000) – $12MM (educated guess, outside of arbitration model)
- Non-tender candidates: Lawrie, Garcia
Free Agents
- Justin Morneau, Austin Jackson, Alex Avila, Jacob Turner (outrighted off 40-man roster)
Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Information
In early October, Robin Ventura announced he was stepping down as White Sox manager after five seasons. Ventura’s contract was up anyway, and it’s not clear whether the Sox had any intention of offering him a new contract. The team almost immediately promoted bench coach Rick Renteria to manage the club, on a term that has not yet been reported. GM Rick Hahn chose not to interview other candidates, as Renteria was atop the team’s “living document” of potential future managers. Renteria had a difficult experience with the Cubs, managing them in a 2014 rebuilding season, doing well enough to warrant a second year, and then getting fired when Joe Maddon became available.
I don’t know if the hiring of a less experienced manager like Renteria is an indication that he will preside over a 2017 rebuild for the White Sox, as Hahn has chosen not to tip his hand on the team’s offseason direction. Hahn did posit in August that “by the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction.” As White Sox fans await this odd reveal, I’ll tackle this post from each direction.
In a rebuild scenario, the team could move a host of players that clearly won’t be part of the next good White Sox team: Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Gonzalez, David Robertson, Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and James Shields. Frazier, 31 in February, is coming off a career-best 40 home runs and a career-worst .225 batting average. MLBTR projects a $13.5MM salary for 2017, after which he’ll reach free agency. The White Sox could get something useful in return, but only a handful of contenders are seeking third basemen, and the free agent market features Justin Turner and Luis Valbuena. Cabrera is also an above-average hitter, but his value is limited by his poor defense and $15MM salary. Robertson struggled with his control and blew seven saves on the season, but his two year, $25MM commitment would appeal to teams not willing to pay full freight for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon. Gonzalez bounced back as a solid back-end starter, which is hard to come by in the 2016-17 free agent market. Lawrie, Garcia, and Shields have little to no trade value, but moving Cabrera and Robertson would clear $40MM in commitments, and trading Frazier and Gonzalez would free up $16MM+ that would have been spent on their arbitration salaries. It seems likely that Avisail Garcia’s time with the White Sox will come to an end soon, as the 25-year-old has shown few signs of being a useful Major Leaguer after 409 career games, 356 of which came with the White Sox.
Trading players like Frazier, Cabrera, Robertson, and Gonzalez might return a handful of decent prospects and free up payroll space but would do little to change the long-term trajectory of the White Sox. To truly reboot the franchise and try something different, Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams will have to entertain trades for any or all of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jose Abreu. Sale and Quintana are immensely valuable assets. Sale is among the ten best starters in baseball, and Quintana has to be in the top 20. Both lefties will enter the 2017 season at just 28 years of age, with clean bills of health. Both have extremely team-friendly contracts. On the open market, Sale would be worth over $100MM for 2017-19 alone. Instead, he’ll be paid $40.5MM at most. Quintana will be paid at most $40.35MM over the next four seasons, which would also be valued over $100MM. To top it off, there is no one remotely similar to Sale or Quintana in this year’s free agent market.
Nearly every team in baseball would have interest in Sale and Quintana. Teams with a strong need for starting pitching this winter, like the Marlins, Braves, Astros, and Angels, would obviously be interested. Others, who may add on the “only if it’s an ace” condition, like the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, would be in as well. According to an August report from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, the Red Sox were unwilling to part with center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for one of the White Sox aces at the trade deadline. That gives you an idea of a potential headliner, though – an established, five-win under-30 player who is under control for four more years. Other centerpiece examples could include Starling Marte, George Springer, or Christian Yelich. The White Sox could also try for less-established, but extremely valuable young players like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, or Andrew Benintendi. The question is whether Hahn would enter the offseason hellbent on trading one or both of his aces to kick off a true rebuild, or if he’d set a price and only make the trade if that price is met. The latter approach makes more sense, since both pitchers will still be very valuable at the July trade deadline as well as next offseason (and beyond).
In the event of a rebuild, the White Sox must also consider trading first baseman Jose Abreu, who might earn $40-45MM through arbitration over the next three seasons. While Abreu’s power has slipped since his rookie season, he’ll turn 30 in January and has a good $20MM of surplus value in comparison to market prices for power hitters. Teams such as the Red Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, and Blue Jays are a few possible matches. Right fielder Adam Eaton would have immense trade value, with five years of potential control remaining. However, I see Eaton as a potential source of stability, someone who can anchor the roster even if the front office starts shipping out other top players.
We haven’t even mentioned Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson, and Nate Jones yet. Plainly, the White Sox have too many good or great players to sell most of them off in a rebuild. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is 80 years old. Shouldn’t this team be going for it? Let’s look at what that might require.
The White Sox have had Opening Day payrolls in the $115-120MM range in three of the past four seasons. They peaked at about $128MM in 2011, so that might be the ceiling. The Sox have about $74MM committed to eight players under contract for 2017. Add another $19MM for Frazier, Gonzalez, Jennings, Petricka, and Putnam, and we’re at $93MM for 13 players.
First and foremost on the agenda should be a catcher. The White Sox pretty much have to go outside the organization for a backstop. They could sign one of Matt Wieters or Jason Castro in free agency, or trade for the Yankees’ Brian McCann. Signing Castro to a two-year deal in the $15MM range would be a measured way to fill the void.
At second base, the White Sox must decide whether they would like to bring the perennially disappointing or injured Lawrie back for $5MM or so through arbitration. I’d vote no, because payroll will be tight and they can plug in Tyler Saladino for a much cheaper solution while possibly getting similar production. It seems likely that Lawrie can bring back some kind of spare part in trade prior to the non-tender deadline. Free agent options at second base include Neil Walker, Chase Utley, and Sean Rodriguez, if the White Sox want to go that route.
Center field is one of the more obvious areas of upgrade for the White Sox. Adam Eaton had an excellent season as the team’s primary right fielder and should probably stay there. Dexter Fowler, a player to whom the Sox made an offer last winter, is a free agent again and remains a strong fit. One big concern is that Fowler will come with a qualifying offer attached, meaning the Sox would have to surrender the #12 pick in the 2017 draft if they sign him. Unless Fowler comes at a serious discount from our projected lucrative four-year contract, he’s not an ideal addition. Ian Desmond comes with a similar concern. Instead, the White Sox could roll the dice on Carlos Gomez, who struggled mightily for parts of the last two seasons but showed promise in about a month’s worth of time with the Rangers at the end of the season. Gomez could sign a one-year deal for around $13MM in an attempt to rebuild value in Chicago, assuming they’re willing to tangle with agent Scott Boras. The relationship between Boras and the White Sox has had contentious moments dating back to the 90s. While it has softened in recent years, I don’t know if they would be able to get together on a free agent deal for players like Gomez, Wieters, or Kendrys Morales.
To balance out the lineup, the White Sox could use a left-handed designated hitter. Call it the Justin Morneau/Adam LaRoche role. This could be filled by a switch-hitter as well, with free agents such as Carlos Beltran and Kendrys Morales fitting the bill. If the goal is more to find a bat that can hit right-handed pitching well, then certainly Edwin Encarnacion is worth considering. However, a contract for Encarnacion would annihilate Abreu’s franchise record of $68MM and bust the payroll. Even the $12-14MM types like Beltran and Morales could be excessive for this bat-only role. Free agents who have been solid against righties over the past three years and would come with palatable price tags include Adam Lind, Luis Valbuena, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Coghlan, and Brandon Moss. None of those acquisitions would excite White Sox fans, but a high-priced designated hitter is a poor allocation of limited payroll space. One could argue that the White Sox are already paying good money for a pair of DH-types who are dragging down the defense, in Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu. Another possibility would be to pencil Cabrera in for most of the DH at-bats, plugging the hole in left field with a defensively superior addition like trade candidate Brett Gardner.
So far we’ve added three players (or player types) to fill position player holes, and it would require about $27MM in salary for 2017. This conservative offseason approach already requires $120MM for 16 players. Accounting for minimum salary players, it’s difficult to see room for more significant additions. Payroll will be tight, making the $10MM owed to James Shields in 2017 all the more painful. Attempting to dump some of Cabrera’s salary is worth considering. Given his subpar left field defense, he’s not providing good value to the White Sox on a $15MM salary. Still, he was an above average hitter in two of the last three seasons, so the Sox might be able to find a team to take $8MM or so of the commitment. The problem is that the savings might have to be reallocated to a new left fielder. Eric Thames, coming off three huge years in Korea, could be a cheap roll of the dice for a team that would need some things to break their way to reach the playoffs.
I think the White Sox would find a taker for the majority of the $25MM owed to Robertson over the next two years, though his loss would create a hole in the bullpen. Robertson just had minor knee surgery, while Putnam had elbow surgery in August and Petricka had hip surgery in June. A good case can be made for adding to this bullpen rather than subtracting from it. A late-inning lefty would be a good fit, with Brett Cecil, Travis Wood, Boone Logan, Mike Dunn, and Jerry Blevins looking like the better free agents.
The White Sox look very strong in the first four rotation spots, with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Gonzalez. Shields, 35 in December, was brutal in 22 starts for the White Sox after being acquired in December, and his contract presents a real problem. If not for the $22MM the Sox owe Shields over the next two years, he’d be a release candidate. The contract might force the club to give him a look as their fifth starter heading into 2017, though cutting Shields now might be better for the team’s record. It seems unlikely that the White Sox could bite the bullet and release Shields and also pour additional money into the rotation opening.
Most of the proposed roster solutions here have come from free agency. In reality, Hahn will certainly look at the trade market. The White Sox remain light on prospects, and would have to consider trading top names like Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, Spencer Adams, or Zack Burdi to bring in Major League talent. Trading from this group seems like digging a deeper long-term hole.
Whichever path Reinsdorf, Williams, and Hahn choose, I don’t expect a major organizational shift from the White Sox this offseason. I can’t picture a $150MM+ payroll and a free agent megadeal or two, nor do I expect the team to clean house by trading Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and others. This front office has taken the middle road before; perhaps there is enough talent on the roster to try it one last time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2017
As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017. The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).
The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official. The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.
If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us. I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies. A full post on Abreu can be found here.
Angels (5)
- Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
- Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
- Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
- Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
- Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM
Astros (7)
- Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
- Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
- Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
- Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
- Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
- Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
- George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
- Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM
Athletics (5)
- Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
- Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
- Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
- Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
- Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM
Blue Jays (4)
- Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
- Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
- Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
- Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM
Braves (7)
- Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
- Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
- Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
- Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
- Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K
Brewers (4)
- Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
- Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
- Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
- Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM
Cardinals (5)
- Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
- Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
- Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
- Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
- Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM
Cubs (4)
- Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
- Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
- Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
- Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM
Diamondbacks (6)
- Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
- Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
- Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
- Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
- Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
- Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM
Dodgers (7)
- Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
- Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
- Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
- Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
- Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
- Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
- Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM
Giants (6)
- Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
- Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
- George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
- Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
- Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
- Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K
Indians (8)
- Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
- Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
- Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
- Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
- Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
- Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
- Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
- Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM
Mariners (9)
- Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
- Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
- Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
- Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
- Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
- Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
- Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
- James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
- Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K
Marlins (6)
- David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
- Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
- A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
- Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
- Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
- Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM
Mets (10)
- Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
- Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
- Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
- Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
- Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
- Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
- Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
- Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
- Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM
Nationals (5)
- Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
- Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
- Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
- Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
- Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM
Orioles (9)
- Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
- Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
- Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
- Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
- Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
- Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
- T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
- Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
- Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM
Padres (6)
- Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
- Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
- Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
- Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
- Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
- Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM
Phillies (3)
- Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
- Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
- Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM
Pirates (7)
- Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
- Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
- Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
- Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
- Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
- Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
- Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM
Rangers (7)
- Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
- Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
- Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
- A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
- Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
- Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM
Rays (9)
- Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
- Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
- Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
- Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
- Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
- Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
- Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
- Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM
Red Sox (10)
- Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
- Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
- Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
- Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
- Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
- Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
- Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
- Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
- Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM
Reds (4)
- Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
- Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
- Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
- Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM
Rockies (5)
- Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
- Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
- Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
- Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
- Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM
Royals (3)
- Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
- Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
- Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM
Tigers (6)
- Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
- Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
- Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
- Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
- Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
- Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM
Twins (5)
- Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
- Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
- Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
- Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
- Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM
White Sox (9)
- Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
- Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
- Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
- Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
- Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
- Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
- Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K
Yankees (7)
- Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
- Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
- Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
- Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
- Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
- Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM