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East Notes: Machado, Adonis Garcia, Marlins, Braves

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The Orioles “continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado,” tweets Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who doesn’t believe the club has a firm deadline on trade talks for their star infielder.  As Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com wrote six days ago, “These incremental updates are white noise.”  Unfortunately, that’s all we’ve got right now!  Connolly’s best guess at that time: Machado will be traded before Opening Day.  For now, we’ll continue to wait for the hot stove to light.

Miguel Sano Accused Of Assault

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2:15pm: The Twins issued the following statement:

“Today the Minnesota Twins were made aware of allegations involving Miguel Sano at an offsite appearance during the 2015 season.  The Twins, along with Major League Baseball, take these allegations very seriously.  Until more information is gathered, the Twins will have no further comment.”

A short while later, Sano issued the following statement:

“I unequivocally deny the allegation made against me today — it never happened.  I have the utmost respect for women, especially those working in professional sports, and I deeply sympathize with anyone who has experienced sexual harassment. There is no place for it in our society.”

12:53pm: Photographer Betsy Bissen has accused Twins third baseman Miguel Sano of assault, in a post on social media this morning.  Bissen, a photographer who has covered Twins games and events, describes an incident in 2015 with Sano at an autograph signing.  Bissen says Sano recognized her from Twins games she worked as a photographer.  In her account, she describes how Sano flirted without reciprocation during the signing, and later “grabbed my wrist and made me go” with him, his agent, and her employer to an Apple Store.  Bissen further describes the incident as follows:

“We spend around a half hour inside that store before it was time for him and his agent to leave.  Their car was pulled around to a back hallway door.  As we got outside, the athlete decided he needed to use the restroom.  I asked my boss where it was and pointed to the door we just walked thru.  Apparently I was too close, and the athlete took that as a signal that I wanted him to grab me and try to take me back thru that door.

I pulled back as he held onto my wrist.  It hurt, how badly he was grasping at my wrist, but he wouldn’t let go.  I wasn’t going to give up my fight though.  He then leaned down and tried to kiss me, more than once.  Every time he did, I said no and kept pulling back.  I was in a squatted position with my wrist throbbing.  I screamed, no one came to help me.  He finally gave up after a solid ten mins of fighting to pull me thru that door.  I don’t even want to think of what he may have done, had he got me thru that door.  No, he didn’t rape me, but he sure did assault me.  When I said no, it should have been the end of it.  He should have respected that and stopped.  Instead, he hurt me and kept going. 

The next day, my body was sore all over from having to fight off this athlete that thought he was entitled to take advantage of me against my will.”

MLB and the players’ union agreed to a domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy in August 2015.  It seems likely that MLB will investigate this incident, which could result in a suspension for Sano.  It appears the Twins may just be learning about this incident.  This year’s #metoo movement seems to have compelled Bissen to share her story publicly.  I asked Bissen in a Twitter message whether she would cooperate with MLB if they contact her, and she replied, “If they do, I will cooperate. I honestly don’t want anything from this other than to feel free from what happened to me.”

Poll: Who Will Sign Jake Arrieta?

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Jake Arrieta is one of four major free agent starting pitchers who seems destined to sign in the new year.  Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, has a long history of waiting out the market.  Here’s a list of free agent contracts signed by Boras clients in the last decade in January, February, or March:

Keep in mind, however, that not all of these contracts met expectations.  We ranked Arrieta fourth on our list, with a prediction of four years, $100MM that I’m guessing Boras would have said was way low.  I think Arrieta can still get a contract in that range.  But from which team?

The Cubs seem more interested in Yu Darvish than in bringing Arrieta back, but it’s reasonable to keep them in the mix for Jake.  Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports has linked the Nationals to Arrieta, and that’s certainly a team that was involved on many of the above-listed Boras free agents.  A source speaking to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post called the team’s interest in Arrieta “tepid.”  Heyman has also named the Phillies, though Inquirer beat writer Matt Gelb doesn’t see that as likely either.  The Astros, Blue Jays, Rockies, Rangers, Brewers, Twins, and Cardinals have been linked as well.  Keep in mind that teams that might have shied away from huge November/December demands for Arrieta could re-enter the picture if the price gets more realistic in the new year.  Another factor is draft pick compensation.  For more info on that, check out my post about which draft picks each team would lose by signing a qualified free agent like Arrieta.

With that, I throw it out to you:

(Poll link for app users)

Which team will sign Jake Arrieta?
Cubs 15.25% (3,926 votes)
The Field 13.62% (3,506 votes)
Rangers 12.27% (3,158 votes)
Brewers 10.66% (2,745 votes)
Cardinals 10.44% (2,687 votes)
Phillies 10.15% (2,613 votes)
Nationals 8.93% (2,300 votes)
Astros 5.97% (1,537 votes)
Twins 5.49% (1,414 votes)
Blue Jays 4.93% (1,269 votes)
Rockies 2.30% (593 votes)
Total Votes: 25,748

Levine On Asking Prices For Arrieta, Cobb

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Yesterday morning, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score published a report with a few interesting notes on free agent pitchers.  So far, the biggest free agent pitching signing has been the Cubs’ surprising $38MM deal for Tyler Chatwood, while Mike Minor, Jhoulys Chacin, Miles Mikolas, C.C. Sabathia, Mike Fiers, Doug Fister, and Yovani Gallardo are also off the board.

  • Six years and $160MM was said to be the starting point for Jake Arrieta in November, sources tell Levine.  Even in making these predictions in late October, we went with four years and $100MM for Arrieta.  Levine says Arrieta and fellow free agent Yu Darvish are currently looking for at least five-year deals.  The pair of righties were born 163 days apart back in 1986, and the case can be made that Darvish doesn’t deserve more years than Arrieta based on age.  Including Japan and the MLB postseason, Darvish has tallied 2,337 innings in his career, and he had Tommy John surgery in March 2015.  Including college and the MLB postseason, Arrieta is at 1,910 2/3.  Does this difference of 426 1/3 innings, thrown under many different stress levels, actually matter in terms of injury risk?  I have no idea, but the respective agents will make a few claims.  In the end, though, it’s just a bidding war.  Teams bid on both pitchers until the agents decide they’re unlikely to do better, and then a deal is made.
  • “It appears a four or five-year deal is expected” for free agent righty Alex Cobb, writes Levine.  Cobb had Tommy John surgery in May of 2015, and has just over 700 innings in his pro career.  A week ago, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote that Cobb “likely sees Mike Leake ($80 million, five years) as a comp and is thought to have been asking for about $20 million a year.”  However, Levine wrote yesterday that “Dan Horwits, Cobb’s agent, has denied a report that the Cobb camp was asking for $20 million annually.”  Though we went with four years and $48MM in our early November predictions, I’d certainly take the over on the average annual value in light of the Chatwood contract.  At the time, I was looking at Brandon McCarthy’s four-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers from three years ago, but it’s fair to say the market has moved since then on this type of pitcher.
  • Here on December 28th, the top four starting pitchers remain unsigned: Darvish (Wasserman), Arrieta (Boras), Cobb (Beverly Hills Sports Council), and Lance Lynn (Excel Sports Management).  As the process drags into January, it will be interesting to see if any of the four have to settle for a bargain deal.  The current free agency game of chicken between teams and agents has no recent precedent.

When Bad Teams Sign Big Free Agent Deals

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The Phillies recently beat the market for first baseman Carlos Santana with a three-year, $60MM deal.  This is a team that won 66 games in 2017, and despite also adding a pair of veteran relievers, doesn’t seem like they’re making a full push to contend in 2018.  The Santana signing got me thinking about other recent free agent deals given out by teams that had been in a clear rebuild.  Here’s a look at how five recent examples turned out.  Note that this excludes something like the Red Sox signing Pablo Sandoval, since the team wasn’t tanking prior to that contract.

  • Coming off a 73-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Jon Lester to a six-year, $155MM deal, the second-largest of the 2014-15 offseason.  While the 2014 Cubs were clearly tanking, it was the third year of that effort under the Theo Epstein regime.  The Lester signing, which took some convincing on the Cubs’ part, was the signature move of an offseason that also included the additions of Joe Maddon, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero, and Jason Hammel.  The timing of the Lester signing made sense, and the 2015 Cubs won 97 games and made it to the NLCS.
  • Coming off a 51-win season, the Astros signed pitcher Scott Feldman to a three-year, $30MM deal, the 14th-largest of the 2013-14 offseason.  The Astros made this move despite having a year left in their tanking process.  This was the offseason in which the Astros also acquired Dexter Fowler and several veteran relievers. The Feldman signing was one of those “respectability” type deals for a team not quite yet ready to win.  While it may have been unnecessary, it’s also the smallest on this list and didn’t end up hampering the Astros.
  • Coming off a 61-win season, the Cubs signed pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2012-13 offseason.  The Cubs were entering the second year of their rebuild, and they settled for Jackson after missing out on Anibal Sanchez.  It didn’t take long for regret to set in on this one, as Jackson was terrible for the Cubs from the get-go.  The Cubs likely saw Jackson as a high-floor pitcher who could take the ball 30 times and bring stability to their rotation, but do clearly rebuilding teams need to spend good money on that?
  • Coming off a 69-win season, the Nationals signed right fielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal, the second-largest of the 2009-10 offseason.  The Nationals would win 72 games in 2010, but then jumped to 80 wins in 2011 and 98 in 2012.  The team made the playoffs in 2012, ’14, ’16, and ’17, and Werth was a big factor in the team’s success in ’14.  Werth was good for just 3.0 WAR from 2011-12, but performed as a star-caliber player from 2013-14 with 9.7 WAR.  The Werth contract was widely panned at the time it was signed.  Though Werth concentrated most of his value into two of the seven seasons, the Nats didn’t come out that poorly overall.
  • Coming off a 62-win season, the Royals signed pitcher Gil Meche to a five-year, $55MM deal, the sixth-largest of the 2006-07 offseason.  The Meche contract was a real eyebrow-raiser at the time, but the righty was actually quite good for the first two years of the deal before injuries became a problem.  Meche is now best known for his stunning decision to walk away from the final year of that deal, forfeiting $12MM.  Though the case can be made that Meche was “worth” the money in his two good years, the team never contended during his tenure.  Would it have mattered if the 2008 Royals won 68 games instead of 72?

With the Santana signing, the Phillies can at least make the argument that they have a shot at contention in 2018.  The club currently projects for about 78 wins, but with a few more moves they can push into the range of the second Wild Card.  Teams like the Rockies, Giants, Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Mets aren’t too far ahead of them (this assumes the Cardinals are the favorite for the first Wild Card).  On the other hand, the Padres currently project for about 73 wins, which is why their flirtation with Eric Hosmer makes little sense.  The club would likely waste the first year of a Hosmer deal on a losing season, plus Hosmer simply isn’t as good as Werth was.  I think, for the most part, teams don’t need to sign large free agent deals until they’re actually ready to contend.

The 20 Largest Contracts Signed By Pitchers After Tommy John Surgery

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If you match up unsigned pitchers in our MLB free agent tracker with Jon Roegele’s excellent running list of those who had Tommy John surgery, it appears that 33 of the 92 hurlers on the market have that famous elbow procedure in their history:

Al Alburquerque
Brett Anderson
John Axford
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Jorge de la Rosa
Jumbo Diaz
Brian Duensing
Scott Feldman
Neftali Feliz
Jaime Garcia
Miguel Gonzalez
A.J. Griffin
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Greg Holland
Drew Hutchison
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
Dustin McGowan
Jason Motte
Peter Moylan
Eric O’Flaherty
Seung-hwan Oh
Zach Putnam
Bruce Rondon
Trevor Rosenthal
Anibal Sanchez
Shae Simmons
Drew Storen
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez

Meanwhile, a look at the 51 pitchers who have signed free agent contracts shows that 11 of them are Tommy John surgery survivors.  Tyler Chatwood, Jake McGee, and Pat Neshek all signed healthy contracts, with their procedures many years in the rearview.  In addition, Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda, who both had the surgery last July, set a new precedent by signing $10MM deals.  Smyly and Pineda have basically been written off for 2018, but the Cubs and Twins found a $10MM guarantee to be a worthy gamble in the hopes of full, effective 2019 seasons.

Of the 27 pitchers on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, 10 have had Tommy John surgery.  That includes four of the top 11 free agents of any type: Darvish, Lynn, Holland, and Cobb.  Oddly enough, each member of that quartet had Tommy John in 2015 within an eight-month span.  MLBTR ranked Darvish as the best available free agent this winter, and he’s vying to land the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher who previously had Tommy John surgery.  Here’s my attempt at the all-time top 20 contracts pitchers received post-TJS:

1.  Stephen Strasburg – $175MM (extension with Nationals May 2016)
2.  Jordan Zimmermann – $110MM (free agent contract with Tigers Nov 2015)
3.  Adam Wainwright – $97.5MM (extension with Cardinals Mar 2013)
4.  A.J. Burnett – $82.5MM (free agent contract with Yankees Dec 2008)
T-5.  Anibal Sanchez – $80MM (free agent contract with Tigers Dec 2012)
T-5.  Wei-Yin Chen – $80MM (free agent contract with Marlins Jan 2016)
7.  C.J. Wilson – $77.5MM (free agent contract with Angels Dec 2011)
8.  Danny Duffy – $65MM (extension with Royals Jan 2017)
9.  Mark Melancon – $62MM (free agent contract with Giants Dec 2016)
10.  A.J. Burnett – $55MM (free agent contract with Blue Jays Dec 2005)
11.  Ryan Dempster – $52MM (free agent contract with the Cubs Nov 2008)
12.  Rich Hill – $48MM (free agent contract with Dodgers Dec 2016)
T-13.  Francisco Liriano – $39MM (free agent contract with Pirates Dec 2014)
T-13.  Josh Johnson – $39MM (extension with Marlins Jan 2010)
15.  Tyler Chatwood – $38MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2017)
16.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – $36MM (contract with Dodgers involving posting system Dec 2012)
17.  Rafael Soriano – $35M (free agent contract with Yankees Jan 2011)
18.  Kerry Wood – $32.5MM (extension with Cubs Jan 2004)
19.  John Lackey – $32MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2015)
T-20.  Scott Feldman – $30MM (free agent contract with Astros Jan 2014)
T-20. John Smoltz – $30MM (free agent contract with Braves Dec 2001)

If you notice any errors or omissions, please contact us.

MLB Free Agents – 2017-18 Updated Tracker

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Here at MLB Trade Rumors, we’ve been following the hot stove religiously since 2005.  MLB free agents have seen a delayed market that may play out largely in the new year, with players such as Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and Eric Hosmer still looking for homes.  For anyone looking to keep tabs on who’s signed and who’s still out there, our tracker for MLB free agents is the best on the Internet.  It’s constantly updated and lets you filter by tons of criteria, including team, position, signing status, handedness, qualifying offers, years, amounts, and option types.  Check it out today!

Follow The Winter Meetings With Our Free Trade Rumors App

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Following the MLB Winter Meetings on your phone?  We’ve got your covered with our free Trade Rumors app for iOS and Android.  With Trade Rumors, you can set up custom notifications to suit your needs, whether it’s for all of MLB, certain teams, or a few specific players.  Plus, the app’s clean, fast interface draws rave reviews.  The hot stove is burning, so download Trade Rumors at the links below!

Trade Rumors for iOS devices

Trade Rumors for Android devices

Yankees, Marlins Reach Deal For Stanton

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10:56am: Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter that the Yankees will receive about $35MM from the Marlins in the deal, and confirms that they’ll send back Castro and prospects. Heyman also adds in a separate tweet that Stanton is on his way to NYC for a physical, making it clear that he is waiving his no-trade clause.

10:35am: A source close to Morosi confirms Rosenthal’s report that Stanton is expected to approve the trade.

9:56am: A last-ditch effort to acquire Stanton today by the Dodgers is unlikely, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports hears (Twitter link).

9:33am: The main prospects that would be headed back in the deal are down in the lower levels of the Yankees’ minor league system, Sherman adds.

9:20am: Sherman hears that Castro is the only veteran going back to the Marlins in the deal (Twitter link). The other players going to Miami are Yankees prospects, though not their “best.”

8:49am: The expectation is that Stanton will approve the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal also mentions that the deal is pending physicals, which seem to be the only real item standing in the way of the trade being considered complete.

7:14am: The Yankees and Marlins have a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.  The deal is still subject to Stanton’s approval, as the slugger has full no-trade rights.  Several hours prior, Joel Sherman of the New York Post called the deal “virtually done,” noting the Marlins will receive second baseman Starlin Castro “plus good but not top prospects” if completed.  Before that, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle had reported the deal as “close if not done.”

Yesterday, Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants.  Previous reporting has indicated that the Yankees are on the short list of teams to which Stanton would be willing to be traded, so his approval in this case may not be a major hurdle.  Stanton will also need to pass a physical by the Yankees, as Sherman has noted.

The pairing of Giancarlo Stanton with Aaron Judge will be one for the ages.  Stanton just took home the NL MVP award with an epic 59 home run season, a level that had not been reached since Barry Bonds in 2001.  Meanwhile, Judge won the American League Rookie of the Year award and finished second in the AL MVP voting with 52 bombs, a rookie record.  Throw in catcher Gary Sanchez, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman has assembled a Murderers’ Row of right-handed sluggers.

Earlier this year, the Marlins were purchased by a group led by former Yankees great Derek Jeter, as well as investor Bruce Sherman.  The pair chose to keep alive the Marlins’ fire sale tradition, intent on moving Stanton because of the massive contract he signed under previous owner Jeffrey Loria three years ago.  The Marlins’ leverage was clearly reduced after Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants.  Stanton, 28, is still owed $295MM over the next ten years.  After the 2020 season, he has the right to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM, which will be a source of significant downside risk for the Yankees.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman has expressed his commitment to getting the team’s payroll under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, which isn’t easy to do while adding Stanton’s contract.  Sending Castro to the Marlins removes a two-year, $22MM commitment. However, as Sherman points out, the average annual value of Castro’s contract is what counts towards the tax; that figure is $8.6MM.

It’s certainly too early to say this for certain, but the impact of this trade could even reach next year’s free agent market, as Mark Zuckerman notes on Twitter. The Yankees have long been considered one of the best potential suitors for former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but may not have room for him in their outfield (or potentially their 2019 payroll) any longer. It would be hard to imagine them using one of Judge, Stanton or Harper exclusively as a designated hitter, and none of them are likely candidates to play anywhere on the field besides the outfield corners.

The deal will also come with significant risk for the Yankees. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs pointed out back in November, it’s hard to know how the reigning NL MVP will age. Stanton also missed large portions of the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a broken hand and a groin strain, respectively. Add that injury history into the mix, and there’s a number of scenarios that end with Stanton’s contract becoming a significant albatross for the Yankees during the final years of the deal. This doesn’t necessarily detract from the fact that New York is in a much better position over the next few years due to the slugging outfielder’s presence, but it’s certainly a notable concern.

Acquiring Stanton should help soften the blow for the Yankees of seeing Shohei Ohtani agree to terms with the Angels. Last week, the Bombers were considered strong suitors for the services of the two-way Japanese phenom, and didn’t seem like serious contenders to land Stanton in a trade. While the Yanks will still want to make a big improvement to their pitching staff, Stanton adds similar value to their roster overall, and perhaps allows them to be more aggressive in shopping outfielder Clint Frazier for cost-controlled starting pitchers (hat tip to Joel Sherman).

The Miami Marlins originally took Stanton with the 76th overall pick in the 2007 draft (second round). After a hot start with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate three years later, the team decided to promote him straight to the majors, skipping Triple-A entirely. Stanton stuck in the majors and has been a power monster ever since; he’s already socked 267 home runs over the course of his career to go with a .268/.360/.554 career slash line. While he’s dealt with a plethora of injuries that have caused him to miss time in four of his seven full seasons, the Sherman Oaks, California high school product has averaged roughly 4.5 WAR during that time. 2017 was Stanton’s best season yet; not only did he mash a career-high 59 homers, but he cut his strikeout rate down to a career-low 23.6%. Ultimately, he was rewarded with the National League’s MVP honors for his tremendous year.

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