The non-waiver trade deadline is behind us, and about one-third of the regular MLB season remains.  The list of top free agents for the 2017-18 offseason is beginning to come into focus.  Below, the projected free agents are ranked based on their current earning power.  To view the full list of players eligible for free agency after the season, click here.

1.  Yu Darvish.  The Rangers traded Darvish to the Dodgers right at the July 31st deadline, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer after the season.  The Dodgers seemingly added the former strikeout king as a playoff luxury.  Darvish began his Dodgers tenure with one of his best starts of the season, a seven-inning gem against the Mets.  Darvish’s leap to the best team in baseball grants the pitcher a major pitch framing upgrade, as explained by Chris Anders at Beyond The Box Score.  Darvish is around nine starts away from his second career 200-inning campaign, quieting health concerns related to his Tommy John surgery.  When he takes the mound next spring, he’ll be three years removed from that procedure.  The righty turns 31 soon, so we’re projecting a six-year contract this winter.

2.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, the best hitter in the upcoming free agent class, was traded from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks on July 18th, removing his qualifying offer eligibility.  He was hit in the hand by a pitch in his second plate appearance for Arizona, but avoided a serious injury.  Martinez has slugged 39 extra base hits in 293 plate appearances, a rate surpassed only by Mike Trout and Nolan Arenado among regular players.  However, Martinez’s right field defense continues to diminish his value.  With a six-year contract in play for the soon-to-be 30-year-old, his agent may be best suited looking toward the American League.

3.  Jake Arrieta.  With a strong seven-start run, Arrieta has shaved his ERA down to 3.83.  He’s proven durable since his Cy Young breakout in 2015, and he’s only about five months older than Darvish.  The two righties have a similar free agent profile: still quite good, but not at peak levels.  Our current projection is a five-year deal for Arrieta, who recently laughed off the idea of accepting a one-year qualifying offer.  Talking to Bob Nightengale of USA Today this week, Arrieta expressed a lack of concern about his upcoming foray into free agency.

4.  Eric Hosmer.  Hosmer hit .352/.408/.561 from May through July, boosting his free agent stock immensely.  Still, he’s been out-hit this season by impending free agent first basemen Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, and Lucas Duda, so the market features cheaper (but older) alternatives.  Plus, Hosmer seems a strong bet to receive a qualifying offer from the Royals, dampening his value a bit.  Every free agent class seems to have that one polarizing player, and it might be Hosmer this winter.  Is this really a $100MM+ player, or will sabermetrics win the day?

5.  Masahiro Tanaka.  Speaking of enigmas, Tanaka has a chance to experience free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign.  The catch is that he’ll have to opt out of the $67MM the Yankees are obligated to pay him over the 2018-20 seasons.  Tanaka has been very good in his last 13 starts (and downright brilliant in his last eight), but it’s difficult to ignore his season mark of 1.87 home runs allowed per nine innings.  If Tanaka thinks he can get something close to Jordan Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM pact, opting out is the correct call.

6.  Justin Upton.  Upton, too, is facing an opt-out decision.  He’s owed four years and $88MM and will turn 30 years old in a few weeks.  Upton raked in June and July, and has a shot at a five-year deal.  Even if he’s unsure of earning more money on the open market, Upton may like the idea of leaving the rebuilding Tigers to choose his next team.  If he does opt out, Upton will be ineligible to receive a second career qualifying offer.  On July 30th, Upton told George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press, “I haven’t thought about it, honestly.  But I mean, I came here to win, so I’d have to see what the landscape is like at the end of it.  I enjoy playing here. I enjoy the guys in the clubhouse. I enjoy the atmosphere, the city. That decision is long down the road, months away.”

7.  Mike Moustakas.  Moustakas’ home run barrage has continued, leaving the Royals’ third baseman second in the American League with 32 bombs.  Barring injury, Moose seems likely to become the first Royal to hit 40 home runs.  At his current pace, he’ll wind up closer to 50.  Even with a paltry 4.3% walk rate, Moustakas seems like a candidate for a five-year deal heading into his age-29 season, despite a probable qualifying offer.

8.  Lorenzo Cain.  Cain is quietly on track for his third career season worth at least four wins above replacement.  The value isn’t quite as obvious as the position players ranked above him, but capable center fielders with above-average bats are hard to find.  We’re projecting Cain to get four years, with a shot at five.  Like his teammates on this list, Cain may get a qualifying offer.  Under the new CBA, that’s not nearly as limiting as it has been in the past.

9.  Wade Davis.  The Cubs’ laid-back closer has a career-worst walk rate, but he also has a 2.31 ERA and zero blown saves on the season.  Davis will likely have Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract in his sights, even if that particular deal doesn’t look so great currently.

10.  Greg Holland.  Holland leads MLB in saves and has slightly outpitched Davis this year.  The Rockies’ stopper has a $15MM player option he’s likely to decline in search of a multiyear deal.  Despite missing all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Holland should be a popular free agent.

Johnny Cueto, previously a mainstay on this list, must decide after the season whether to opt out of the $84MM remaining on his contract with the Giants over the next four years.  He’s currently on the disabled list with a mild flexor strain, an injury that may be enough to convince Cueto to play it safe and keep his current deal.  Also falling off the list is Michael Pineda, who had Tommy John surgery in mid-July and will miss most of the 2018 season.

Players just missing the power rankings top ten include Logan Morrison, Zack Cozart, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Santana.  LoMo sits sixth in the AL with 28 home runs.  Cozart is tied with Upton for the free agent WAR lead with 3.6, despite a pair of DL stints.  Lynn’s strong ERA looks somewhat dubious when stacked up against pedestrian peripheral metrics.  Santana, meanwhile, has turned it on lately but is trying to distance himself from a very poor start to the year.  Ultimately, these players may be hard-pressed to find four-year deals, though there’s still time left to bolster their stock.

Most MLB teams are a few games shy of the halfway point in the regular season.  We last checked in on the projected 2017-18 free agent class on May 18th, and since then plenty has changed.  Below, the projected free agents are ranked based on their current earning power.  To view the full list of players eligible for free agency after the season, click here.

1.  Yu Darvish.  Darvish is in the midst of a fine, healthy season.  Post-Tommy John surgery, he’s logged 34 starts with a 3.26 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 207 1/3 innings.  While the 30-year-old righty may not be one of the ten best starters in MLB right now, he’ll likely be paid like it this winter.  He has a shot at topping the six-year, $155MM contract Jon Lester signed with the Cubs in December 2014.  According to Yahoo’s Jeff Passan on June 19th, Darvish is “very likely to end the season in a Rangers uniform.”  While Texas is firmly in the AL Wild Card mix at present, Passan suggested that the Rangers would keep Darvish even if they fall out of contention by the trade deadline, to maximize their chances of re-signing their ace.

2.  J.D. Martinez.  Martinez, 30 in August, has established himself as the best hitter in this free agent class.  Despite missing the first month and a half of the season, Martinez has a good shot at finishing with 30+ home runs for the second time in his career.  For a team looking to add a right-handed middle of the order masher this winter, a six-year offer is possible.  Consider Chris Davis and Shin-Soo Choo, who managed to land seven-year contracts in free agency.  Martinez’s Tigers are currently long shots for the playoffs this year, and the club stands to net only a fourth-round pick if he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere this winter.  So Martinez is a strong candidate to be traded a month from now, unless the Tigers surge.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Cueto vs. Arrieta is an interesting argument.  Born 20 days apart in 1986, both righties are having disappointing, home run-prone seasons.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams suggests, Cueto has the edge given his excellence in 2016 and an ability to go deeper into games this season.  With the Giants completely out of contention, Cueto could be one of the best available starting pitchers on the trade market this summer.  However, the pitcher’s opt-out clause adds downside risk for an acquiring team.  Cueto is simply a rental if he opts out, as Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says he’s “planning” to do, but the pitcher would still reserve the right to stick with his remaining four years and $84MM in the event of an injury or further downturn in performance.  The Giants could reduce their asking price on Cueto to accommodate this risk, or better yet, allow a negotiating window to see if the pitcher would provide his potential new team more certainty about his future.

4.  Jake Arrieta.  Arrieta’s supporting stats suggest he’s better than his current 4.67 ERA, but his days as one of baseball’s best starters may be behind him.  In five of his 16 starts, Arrieta has failed to make it out of the fifth inning.  I’m currently projecting a five-year deal, though we haven’t seen that happen recently with a free agent pitcher entering his age-32 season, outside of Zack Greinke’s outrageous six-year pact.  Agent Scott Boras put out his Arrieta talking points to reporters about a month ago, but if they aren’t convincing to you and I, they probably won’t work on MLB GMs either.

5.  Eric Hosmer.  How low was Hoz on April 24th?  An 0-for-4 against Miguel Gonzalez and the White Sox had dropped his season line to .192/.253/.247 through 79 plate appearances.  This was following a very bleak second half in 2016.  But since April 24th, Hosmer has been on fire, hitting .344/.402/.540 in 234 PAs.  For the season as a whole, he’s back at “Good Hosmer” levels – a high-average hitter with some pop.  At the moment, I’m projecting a solid five-year deal for Hosmer.  He doesn’t turn 28 until October, broadening his appeal.  However, there are two other first basemen who could threaten Hosmer’s market: Yonder Alonso and Logan Morrison.   Both have come from out of nowhere to post monster first halves and could offer the allure of better production than Hosmer at a lower price in free agency.  Interest in Hosmer could be further crowded out by Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds, and Mitch Moreland.

6.  Justin Upton.  Though they go about it in different ways, Upton has been a similar value hitter to Hosmer over the last several years.  While neither player is regarded as a great fielder, it’s a little harder to find a left fielder than a first baseman.  Upton, however, is two years older than Hosmer and faces a decision on his opt-out clause.  If Upton can top four years and $88MM in free agency, it might not be by a ton.  Upton may make the safer choice to stick with his Tigers deal.  On May 25th, Jon Heyman wrote that the possibility of Upton opting out seems “beyond remote,” with a rival GM in agreement.  If the Tigers are to consider trading Upton, they’ll be faced with the same issue the Giants have with Cueto.

7.  Mike Moustakas.  With 20 home runs this season, Moustakas is already threatening his career high of 22.  A 40-homer season isn’t entirely out of the question, given his production to date, and Moose can hold down the hot corner acceptably.  He doesn’t turn 29 until September, and with a strong second half, a five-year deal could be in play.  Older players such as Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Russell Martin, and Brian McCann were all able to land five years in free agency.

8.  Lorenzo Cain.  Cain’s bat has bounced back so far this year, and the Royals’ speedy center fielder makes his first appearance in our top ten.  Cain turns 32 next April, which may put a five-year deal out of reach.  Still, he looks like the best available center fielder this winter.  Like all of the Royals on this list, Cain could be traded in late July if the team falls out of contention.

9.  Masahiro Tanaka.  While Tanaka once seemed a lock to opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM on his Yankees contract, his rough start to the season has brought that into question.  Tanaka, who turns 29 in November, sports a 5.56 ERA and has allowed a whopping 21 home runs in 90 2/3 innings.  That’s good for the fourth-worst home run rate among all qualified starters. Tanaka’s performance has been extremely erratic this year.  He doesn’t look like a $22MM pitcher in free agency, but with a strong second half, a four or five-year deal could be back on the table.

10.  Michael Pineda.  Prior to this year, Pineda’s home run problems could be mostly chalked up to Yankee Stadium.  But this year, in his six road starts, Pineda has somehow seen 30% of fly-balls allowed leave the yard.  The 28-year-old remains as maddening as ever, as three clunkers in June have pushed his ERA up to 4.12.  Pineda is still young and talented enough to score a four-year deal in free agency, as he’s the type of pitcher teams can dream on.

A pair of dominant relievers just missed the top ten.  Wade Davis and Greg Holland have been excellent and will likely be vying for four-year deals in excess of $60MM this winter.  The aforementioned Alonso and Morrison have reinvented themselves and could threaten the top ten before the season is out.  And despite a DL stint for a strained quad, Reds shortstop Zack Cozart still leads all projected free agents with 2.8 wins above replacement this year.

Jonathan Lucroy was arguably the best-hitting catcher in baseball last year, but his bat has gone ice cold in 2017.  Lucroy turned 31 this month, and his performance has put a four-year deal in jeopardy.