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Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2017

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As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries.  This is the sixth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2017.  The number in parentheses next to each player is his Major League service time (Years.Days) through 2016 (172 days constitutes a full year of Major League service, per the collective bargaining agreement).

The Super Two cutoff will be 2.131. Service time data in this post is now official.  The official MLB minimum is not yet known, but we’re using $508K.

If you see any inaccuracies or have questions, please leave a comment or contact us.  I should note that we are creating subjective projections for Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig, outside of the arbitration model, given those players’ existing MLB contracts and the related intricacies.  A full post on Abreu can be found here.

Angels (5)

  • Danny Espinosa (5.113) – $5.3MM
  • Martin Maldonado (4.156) – $1.6MM
  • Garrett Richards (4.148) – $7.0MM
  • Kole Calhoun (3.130) – $6.9MM
  • Matt Shoemaker (2.166) – $3.8MM

Astros (7)

  • Nori Aoki (4.148) – $6.8MM
  • Marwin Gonzalez (4.133) – $3.6MM
  • Dallas Keuchel (4.089) – $9.5MM
  • Will Harris (3.102) – $2.5MM
  • Mike Fiers (3.085) – $4.3MM
  • Collin McHugh (3.085) – $4.6MM
  • George Springer (2.166) – $4.7MM
  • Jake Marisnick (2.145) – $1.1MM

Athletics (5)

  • Yonder Alonso (5.116) – $4.1MM
  • Khris Davis (3.104) – $5.0MM
  • Stephen Vogt (3.084) – $3.7MM
  • Sonny Gray (3.061) – $3.7MM
  • Liam Hendriks (3.038) – $1.0MM

Blue Jays (4)

  • Darwin Barney (5.085) – $1.6MM
  • Aaron Loup (4.040) – $1.2MM
  • Ezequiel Carrera (3.039) – $1.2MM
  • Marcus Stroman (2.148) – $3.5MM

Braves (7)

  • Josh Collmenter (5.144) – $2.2MM
  • Anthony Recker (4.000) – $1.0MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (3.168) – $1.6MM
  • Paco Rodriguez (3.120) – $900K
  • Ian Krol (2.149) – $1.0MM
  • Tuffy Gosewisch (2.154) – $600K

Brewers (4)

  • Carlos Torres (4.114) – $2.0MM
  • Wily Peralta (3.160) – $4.4MM
  • Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) – $1.6MM
  • Scooter Gennett (3.071) – $3.0MM
  • Chase Anderson (2.146) – $3.1MM

Cardinals (5)

  • Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
  • Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
  • Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
  • Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM

Cubs (4)

  • Pedro Strop (5.156) – $5.5MM
  • Jake Arrieta (5.145) – $16.8MM
  • Hector Rondon (4.000) – $5.7MM
  • Justin Grimm (3.170) – $1.8MM

Diamondbacks (6)

  • Patrick Corbin (4.105) – $4.2MM
  • Randall Delgado (4.100) – $1.9MM
  • Shelby Miller (3.166) – $4.9MM
  • Chris Owings (3.027) – $2.1MM
  • Chris Herrmann (3.001) – $1.0MM
  • Taijuan Walker (2.142) – $2.8MM

Dodgers (7)

  • Yasmani Grandal (4.115) – $5.3MM
  • Luis Avilan (3.146) – $1.5MM
  • Scott Van Slyke (3.151) – $1.3MM
  • Chris Hatcher (3.146) – $1.4MM
  • Alex Wood (3.123) – $2.0MM
  • Josh Fields (3.092) – $1.2MM
  • Vidal Nuno (3.015) – $1.1MM

Giants (6)

  • Eduardo Nunez (5.090) – $4.4MM
  • Conor Gillaspie (4.028) – $900K
  • George Kontos (3.171) – $1.7MM
  • Will Smith (3.155) – $2.3MM
  • Cory Gearrin (3.136) – $1.1MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (2.131) – $508K

Indians (8)

  • Bryan Shaw (5.081) – $4.5MM
  • Lonnie Chisenhall (4.158) – $4.1MM
  • Zach McAllister (4.077) – $1.7MM
  • Cody Allen (4.076) – $7.7MM
  • Brandon Guyer (4.066) – $2.0MM
  • Dan Otero (3.124) – $1.2MM
  • Danny Salazar (2.162) – $3.8MM
  • Trevor Bauer (2.158) – $3.7MM

Mariners (9)

  • Danny Valencia (5.118) – $5.3MM
  • Jarrod Dyson (5.088) – $2.5MM
  • Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
  • Leonys Martin (4.078) – $6.3MM
  • Jean Segura (4.065) – $7.3MM
  • Evan Scribner (3.142) – $1.1MM
  • Nick Vincent (3.067) – $1.5MM
  • James Paxton (2.151) – $2.7MM
  • Jesus Sucre (2.137) – $600K

Marlins (6)

  • David Phelps (4.156) – $5.2MM
  • Adeiny Hechavarria (4.060) – $3.7MM
  • A.J. Ramos (4.030) – $6.8MM
  • Tom Koehler (4.016) – $6.2MM
  • Marcell Ozuna (3.124) – $4.5MM
  • Derek Dietrich (2.151) – $1.8MM

Mets (10)

  • Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
  • Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
  • Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
  • Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
  • Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
  • Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
  • Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
  • Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM

Nationals (5)

  • Jose Lobaton (5.138) – $1.6MM
  • Bryce Harper (4.159) – $9.3MM
  • Derek Norris (4.102) – $4.0MM
  • Anthony Rendon (3.130) – $6.4MM
  • Tanner Roark (3.055) – $6.1MM

Orioles (9)

  • Chris Tillman (5.113) – $10.6MM
  • Ryan Flaherty (5.000) – $1.7MM
  • Zach Britton (4.158) – $11.4MM
  • Brad Brach (4.063) – $2.9MM
  • Manny Machado (4.056) – $11.2MM
  • Jonathan Schoop (3.027) – $3.4MM
  • T.J. McFarland (3.006) – $700K
  • Kevin Gausman (2.151) – $3.9MM
  • Caleb Joseph (2.145) – $1.0MM

Padres (6)

  • Carter Capps (4.007) – $1.0MM
  • Wil Myers (3.104) – $4.7MM
  • Brad Hand (3.092) – $1.4MM
  • Brandon Maurer (3.089) – $1.7MM
  • Christian Friedrich (3.046) – $2.0MM
  • Yangervis Solarte (3.000) – $2.7MM

Phillies (3)

  • Jeanmar Gomez (5.063) – $4.6MM
  • Freddy Galvis (4.021) – $4.4MM
  • Cesar Hernandez (2.154) – $2.5MM

Pirates (7)

  • Tony Watson (5.101) – $5.9MM
  • Juan Nicasio (5.084) – $4.6MM
  • Jared Hughes (4.162) – $2.5MM
  • Jordy Mercer (4.095) – $4.0MM
  • Drew Hutchison (3.165) – $2.2MM
  • Wade LeBlanc (3.131) – $1.6MM
  • Gerrit Cole (3.111) – $4.2MM

Rangers (7)

  • Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
  • Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
  • Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
  • A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
  • Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
  • Jeremy Jeffress (3.104) – $2.9MM
  • Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM

Rays (9)

  • Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
  • Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
  • Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
  • Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
  • Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
  • Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
  • Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
  • Danny Farquhar (2.170) – $1.1MM
  • Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM

Red Sox (10)

  • Fernando Abad (5.073) – $2.0MM
  • Robbie Ross Jr. (4.100) – $1.8MM
  • Joe Kelly (4.029) – $2.6MM
  • Drew Pomeranz (4.013) – $4.7MM
  • Tyler Thornburg (3.057) – $2.2MM
  • Brock Holt (3.052) – $1.7MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (3.042) – $5.7MM
  • Brandon Workman (3.018) – $600K
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (2.150) – $3.3MM
  • Sandy Leon (2.149) – $1.3MM

Reds (4)

  • Zack Cozart (5.084) – $4.7MM
  • Blake Wood (4.131) – $2.1MM
  • Tony Cingrani (3.088) – $1.9MM
  • Billy Hamilton (3.028) – $2.3MM

Rockies (5)

  • Jake McGee (5.127) – $6.1MM
  • Tyler Chatwood (5.039) – $4.8MM
  • Jordan Lyles (5.021) – $3.3MM
  • Charlie Blackmon (4.102) – $9.0MM
  • Nolan Arenado (3.155) – $13.1MM

Royals (3)

  • Eric Hosmer (5.146) – $13.3MM
  • Danny Duffy (5.085) – $8.2MM
  • Kelvin Herrera (4.157) – $5.3MM

Tigers (6)

  • Andrew Romine (4.049) – $1.2MM
  • Jose Iglesias (4.036) – $3.2MM
  • Justin Wilson (4.035) – $2.7MM
  • Alex Wilson (3.038) – $1.2MM
  • Bruce Rondon (3.037) – $900K
  • Nick Castellanos (3.029) – $2.8MM

Twins (5)

  • Hector Santiago (5.016) – $8.6MM
  • Brandon Kintzler (5.003) – $2.2MM
  • Eduardo Escobar (4.128) – $2.9MM
  • Kyle Gibson (3.056) – $3.5MM
  • Ryan Pressly (3.053) – $1.1MM

White Sox (9)

  • Miguel Gonzalez (5.084) – $2.6MM
  • Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
  • Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
  • Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
  • Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
  • Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
  • Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K

Yankees (7)

  • Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
  • Adam Warren (4.036) – $2.3MM
  • Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
  • Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
  • Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
  • Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
  • Tommy Layne (2.144) – $1.2MM

How Much Will Jose Abreu Earn In 2017?

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Three years ago, the White Sox signed Cuban slugger Jose Abreu to a franchise-record six-year, $68MM contract.  Abreu kicked off his MLB career with a monster 2014 campaign, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing fourth in the MVP voting.  His offensive production has declined steadily since then, but still remains above average.  Now, Abreu is presented with an important decision that will impact his future earnings.  Within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, Abreu and his agents must decide whether he will opt out of his existing contract and into MLB’s arbitration system — a right that is afforded to him via a clause in that six-year pact. (Note: Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig finds himself in a similar situation, albeit coming off a weaker year. His situation will be addressed separately from Abreu here at MLBTR.)

If Abreu keeps his current contract, he will earn $34MM from 2017-19.  That includes salaries of $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018, and $12MM in 2019.  Abreu’s agents must determine whether their client can do better in arbitration, without the luxury of a precedent for a situation like this.

Abreu’s baseline 2016 salary, for the purposes of arbitration, appears to be $11.66MM.  That figure is calculated by taking his $10MM signing bonus, dividing it by his six-year term, and adding it to his $10MM salary from 2016.  That’s a critical difference, as arbitration paydays are based largely off of the previous year’s salary.  However, there is some gray area in this all-important baseline figure, and the Collective Bargaining Agreement does not provide clarity.  First, does it make sense to divide the signing bonus by six years, even when Abreu is opting out of the last three?  An agent could argue for dividing the bonus by three years, setting Abreu’s 2016 salary at $13.33MM.  Second, even if the six-year term is used, the Players Union tends to calculate net present value on the signing bonus, which could put Abreu’s 2016 salary around $11.88MM.

The White Sox will surely argue against interpretations that assign Abreu a higher number for his 2016 salary.  I think they would agree that for the purposes of establishing an arbitration baseline, he earned $11.66MM this year, unless there is something in the contract that calls for the exclusion of the signing bonus in determining his 2016 salary.

Is there any argument to be made that based purely on statistical merit, and not prior salary, Abreu should earn more than $11.66MM in 2017 through arbitration?  Nope.  Abreu seems to be in the range of Giancarlo Stanton’s first three years, which earned him $6.5MM for his first arbitration year in 2014.  Even with inflation, Abreu wouldn’t get past $11.66MM.

Since Abreu “deserves” a salary well below $11.66MM through arbitration, can the White Sox argue for cutting his salary?  Using the maximum allowable cut of 20 percent, the team could theoretically argue for a $9.33MM salary for Abreu for 2017.  However, salary cuts are extremely rare in the arbitration process, so much so that MLBTR’s automated model doesn’t even consider them.  Ian Stewart’s pay cut in 2012, after an awful season, is not relevant here.  So I think the worst case scenario for Abreu if he opts into arbitration is getting a repeat of that $11.66MM salary for 2017.  That would be a win for him, since his contract would otherwise pay him $10.5MM in 2017.

Can Abreu actually score a raise for 2017, beyond the $11.66MM baseline, though?  It’s possible, especially once appearances come into play.  It would look bad for the White Sox to try to cut Abreu’s salary for 2017, but it also might not look great to the public if they suggest he does not deserve a raise.  Do you think Rick Hahn would try to explain all of the above to White Sox fans, in justifying an argument against giving Abreu a raise?  Abreu’s agent, on the other hand, can feign mock outrage to the media that the White Sox don’t think a cornerstone player such as Abreu, with a .299 average, 91 home runs, and 308 RBI in three seasons, deserves a raise.  The White Sox could consider giving Abreu $12MM or more to save face.

Abreu gains upside by opting into arbitration.  He’s still in his prime, and he plays in a hitters’ ballpark.  Abreu could put up strong baseball card numbers in the coming seasons, maybe even reversing his declining power trend.  Even just normal Abreu performance, combined with token arbitration raises each year, could earn him $40-45MM from 2017-19, instead of the $34MM his contract would have paid.

Abreu’s downside, on the other hand, is limited.  I don’t think a salary cut at any point is likely, so he could simply get repeat salaries three times and still come out with $35MM for 2017-19.  The one risk factor would be in the White Sox non-tendering him after the 2017 or ’18 season, in which case he’d become a free agent.  The White Sox would only do so if his performance truly cratered, and even then, Abreu would make back most or all of the lost earnings in free agency.

Ultimately, I do expect Abreu to opt into MLB’s arbitration system, and I believe he’ll get a salary of about $12MM for 2017.

Three Needs: Chicago White Sox

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With many needs to address, the White Sox added Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, and others during the 2015-16 offseason.  However, the Sox again failed to reach a .500 record, which they last achieved in 2012.  They’re the next non-contending club up in MLBTR’s Three Needs series.

 1.  Put loyalty aside and install the best possible front office and manager.  Kenny Williams has been a part of Chicago’s front office since current shortstop Tim Anderson was a toddler, and Rick Hahn joined the organization more than 15 years ago.  The current arrangement, with Williams serving as Executive Vice President and Hahn as Senior Vice President/General Manager, has been in place for four years.  None of those four Sox teams won more games than they lost.  Even if we give the front office a pass for doing tempered rebuilds for a couple of years, they still had two failed winters of making win-now pushes.  The team’s short- and long-term prospects don’t seem much different than they were four years ago.  It’s time for White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf to put aside his loyalty to the Williams/Hahn tandem, and determine whether the White Sox would benefit from fresh voices in the front office.  If Reinsdorf does decide to dismiss or reassign one or both of Williams and Hahn, he’d do well to more clearly define the balance of power and autonomy of his executives.  In August, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported that Hahn was more in favor of a trade deadline sale than was Reinsdorf, with Hahn later denying any discord.

Manager Robin Ventura has held his position even longer than Hahn, with his fifth season as manager (and his contract) coming to an end.  Even if the front office remains unaltered, Ventura may be allowed to leave.  First baseman Jose Abreu recently suggested the White Sox lacked the same desire to win as the Royals, which could be the final nail in the coffin for Ventura.

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5 Reasons Rich Hill Will Get $45MM+ In Free Agency

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I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter.  A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane.  Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus.  That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November.  Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries.  The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet.  Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.

  1.  His performance has been otherworldly.  Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period.  Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time.  Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement.  Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto’s last 229 2/3 frames.  Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
  2. His age won’t stop him from getting three years.  Hill will turn 37 in March.  Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline.  However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business.  If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well.  Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
  3.  His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years.  Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008.  He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand.  I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above.  It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers).  It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy.  Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
  4. Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM.  Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown?  It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy.  Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent.  So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him.  Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series.  It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings.  A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time.  However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter.  $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
  5. The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible.  The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad.  Have a look.  Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill?  I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.

The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference.  Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do.  Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).

Trade Rumors: Covering MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL

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Mets Sign Tim Tebow To Minor League Deal

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The Mets have signed outfielder Tim Tebow to a minor league contract, according to a team press release.  He’ll head to the team’s instructional league at their Spring Training site in Port St. Lucie, Fla. Tebow is represented by CAA’s Brodie Van Wagenen.

Tim Tebow

The “outfielder” label, of course, is relatively new for the former NFL quarterback. Tebow’s most recent baseball experience came all the way back in high school, as he went on to star at the University of Florida in an extremely successful college career that saw him win the 2007 Heisman Trophy before being drafted 25th overall in the 2010 draft by the Denver Broncos. Tebow became an unlikely hero early in his NFL career, leading the Broncos to a number of late-game comebacks in his second NFL season, including a dramatic overtime win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, his overall performance was middling, at best, and Tebow would appear in just one more NFL season (2012 as a member of the Jets). He signed contracts with the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles as well in 2013 and 2015 but appeared only in preseason contests for the two teams, ultimately settling in as an analyst at ESPN before recently announcing his desire to pursue a baseball career.

It goes without saying that the 29-year-old Tebow is a phenomenal natural athlete, though that certainly doesn’t guarantee any form of success in his move from professional football to professional baseball. Tebow worked out in front of scouts for 28 of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams last week — the Cubs and A’s did not attend — and was met with, at best, mixed reviews. Tebow was average or slightly above average in his 60-yard dash time and impressed scouts with his raw power, but his throwing arm drew considerably weaker reviews. And of course, Tebow will have to adjust to facing professional pitching on the fly. To this point, he’s worked out with former MLB catcher Chad Moeller and hit against free agent reliever David Aardsma, who pitched in the Majors as recently as last season. Still, even for an athlete of Tebow’s caliber, the learning curve will be substantial from this point forth.

While it has to be characterized as an extreme long shot that Tebow will ever be a meaningful contributor for the Mets (or even reach the Majors, for that matter), there’s little downside in at least rolling the dice on an athlete of his caliber that at least showed some degree of promise in a showcase. Braves GM John Coppolella offered similar sentiments just two nights ago, stating that there’s “no risk” to signing Tebow and admitting that Atlanta was exploring the possibility of signing Tebow to a minor league deal. And Tebow drew at least some degree of interest from at least eight teams, including the Blue Jays, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported last night (links to Twitter).

ESPN’s Adam Schefter first reported the signing (via Twitter).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Most players have about 30 remaining regular season games to add to their free agent bona fides.  Postseason heroics don’t always change a free agent’s valuation, as Daniel Murphy can attest.  Still, the majority of players on this list will see their seasons extend into the playoffs, providing a chance to shine on baseball’s biggest stage.  The players below are ranked on their expected earning power in free agency.  To view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents, click  here.

1.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes aggravated his quad in early August, but returned to close out the month with five home runs in 11 games.  He’s showing more power than ever and has even started drawing walks.  Cespedes, who turns 31 in October, told reporters recently he’d like to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but he has not made a decision about his opt-out clause.  Barring a large extension with the Mets, it is a virtual lock Cespedes opts out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM left on his contract in search of a bigger commitment.

2.  Aroldis Chapman.  Aside from a laborious save last night at Wrigley, Chapman had a fine month for the Cubs.  He appears in line to score a record contract for a reliever this winter.

3.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen had a few rare blips in August, but he’s still right there with Chapman as one of the game’s dominant ninth inning forces.  Chapman, Jansen, and Mark Melancon are poised to take the free agent relief market to new heights in a few months.  Of the three, only Jansen will be subject to a qualifying offer, if that system remains in place.

4.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Encarnacion had another fine month with the bat, slugging eight more home runs to bring his total to 36.  His career-high of 42 bombs is within reach.  Unfortunately, Encarnacion has drawn attention for a lawsuit in which a woman alleges he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases in February.  Any team considering signing Encarnacion this offseason is going to have questions and concerns about this situation.

5.  Wilson Ramos.  Ramos had a respectable August, with his career-best home run total climbing to 20.  Among full-time catchers, that mark ties him for second in all of baseball.  Ramos celebrated his 29th birthday in August, and his youth opens up the possibility of a five-year deal in free agency.  If the bidding results in a contract near Russell Martin’s five-year, $82MM pact, Ramos could be the second-biggest earner among all free agents.  For more on Ramos’ market, check out Jeff Todd’s Free Agent Stock Watch.

6.  Ian Desmond.  Desmond hit a bump in the road in August, batting just .241/.276/.276 in 123 plate appearances for the Rangers.  He’s no longer the free agent WAR leader.  Desmond’s overall resurgent campaign still justifies a four-year deal, with strong contributions in hitting, baserunning, and defense.

7.  Justin Turner.  At 4.3 WAR, Turner is the most valuable free agent currently.  The 31-year-old has combined his typical above average third base defense with newfound power at the plate.  Turner’s 24 home runs marks a career high, though his batting average has slipped from the lofty heights of 2014-15.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd dissected Turner’s season and market position at length in this recent Free Agent Stock Watch.

8.  Mark Trumbo.  Trumbo leads all of MLB with 40 home runs, after adding ten more in August.  It was an all or nothing month for the 30-year-old right-handed slugger, who hit .181/.280/.500 in 107 plate appearances.  Oddly, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching this year, after hitting .272/.328/.542 off southpaws from 2013-15.  His poor defensive season is less of a surprise.  Unlike a player like Desmond, Trumbo can only help a team in one area: power.  I still think he has a reasonable chance at a four-year deal, though about 58% of MLBTR readers don’t think he’ll get one.

9.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista, 35, missed a chunk of August due to a knee sprain.  While his offensive rate stats are down, the bigger concern is his health and defense moving forward.  In the aforementioned survey, less than 13% of MLBTR readers think Bautista will get a four-year deal this winter.  I agree with that assessment.

10.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick held the third spot on this list a month ago.  Since being traded to the Dodgers, he’s hitting just .161/.223/.172 in 94 plate appearances.  One month may not torpedo his free agent value entirely, and he still has September and October to build it back up.  MLBTR’s writing team has debated whether Reddick can still land a four-year deal, with Jeff Todd’s Nick Markakis comp suggesting it’s possible.  The ever-pessimistic MLBTR readership gives only a 26% chance of a four-year deal for Reddick.  If they’re correct, he won’t hold a spot in the top ten.

An honorable mention goes to Mets second baseman Neil Walker, who held the tenth spot on this list until news broke that he’s likely to undergo season-ending back surgery.  I would not rule out a four-year deal for Walker, who set a career-high of 3.8 WAR in just 113 games.  Others who are not too far from cracking the top ten: Dexter Fowler, Michael Saunders, and Mark Melancon.  The market will also feature power bats Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Carlos Beltran, great speed and baserunning in Rajai Davis, and high contact hitter Martin Prado.

You may have noticed the complete lack of starting pitchers mentioned.  The free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bleak this winter, with Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, and Rich Hill as the top-ranked arms.

Which Of These Free Agents Will Get Four-Year Deals?

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Last offseason, 14 players received free agent contracts of four or more years, excluding international signings.  Some of the borderline guys, like Ben Zobrist and Darren O’Day, successfully obtained the guaranteed fourth year.  Others, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, were not able to get there, at least at an acceptable salary.  This winter, Cespedes and elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen seem locks for four-plus years.  Everyone else, not so much.  Here are 13 cases to consider, and vote on:

  • Edwin Encarnacion, 34 years old in January.  Encarnacion is having a great season, sitting second in MLB with 36 home runs.  He’s hit 34+ home runs in each of the last five seasons.  His market will likely be limited to the American League, though there is precedent with Nelson Cruz’s four-year, $57MM deal.  Encarnacion is facing a lawsuit alleging he knowingly infected a woman with multiple STDs in February.
  • Ian Desmond, 31 in September.  Desmond has reinvented himself as the Rangers’ center fielder, though he has struggled offensively this month.
  • Jose Bautista, 36 in October.  Bautista recently finished his second DL stint of the year, and his production has been down this season.  He’s the oldest player in this poll.
  • Mark Trumbo, 31 in January.  Trumbo leads MLB with 40 home runs, but he also sports a .317 on-base percentage and has struggled on defense.
  • Wilson Ramos, turned 29 this month.  The Nationals’ catcher has age on his side, and is in the midst of a breakout season.
  • Justin Turner, 32 in November.  Zobrist signed his deal heading into his age-35 season, so surely his contract will be considered a precedent by Turner’s agent.  Turner has set a career-high with 24 home runs already, and is headed toward a career best in games played.
  • Neil Walker, 31 in September.  After being traded to the Mets in December, Walker is having the best season of his career.  Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM deal with the Yankees in December 2014 suggests Walker can reach the same term.
  • Dexter Fowler, 31 in March.  Fowler ranks eighth in the NL with a .389 OBP, though a June hamstring injury may keep him shy of 130 games played for the third time in the last four years.
  • Michael Saunders, 30 in November.  Like Desmond, Saunders has re-established himself but scuffled in August.  As with a few others on this list, Saunders’ injury history will give teams pause.
  • Josh Reddick, 30 in February.  Reddick once seemed like a lock for four years, but he missed time earlier this year due to a broken thumb and has been terrible since joining the Dodgers in a deadline deal.  It’s fair to question whether four years will be on the table for him.
  • Mark Melancon, 32 in March.  Though not as dominant with strikeouts as Chapman and Jansen, Melancon has a 1.75 ERA in 272 innings since 2013, and he’s been great for the Nationals.  His agent will at least aim for four years.
  • Jeremy Hellickson, 30 in April.  Hellickson is one of the best free agent starters available this winter, and the weak market and his relative youth could theoretically push him to a four-year deal.
  • Ivan Nova, 30 in January.  Nova is a long shot for four years, but he’s been great since coming over to the Pirates, and teams can act irrationally in free agency.

Your turn: which of these free agents will get four or more years?  Check all that apply, and click here to view the results.  Those using our app or Safari on their cell phone can click here for the poll.

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Yankees To Hold Press Conference With Alex Rodriguez

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The Yankees will hold a press conference with Alex Rodriguez Sunday at 11am eastern time, according to an announcement from the team.  The reason for the press conference is unknown.  Rodriguez, 41, has limped to a .204/.252/.356 line in 234 plate appearances this year as the team’s designated hitter.  He currently ranks fourth all-time with 696 career home runs.  Though A-Rod is owed $20MM next year, it’s fair to speculate whether his time with the Yankees is coming to an end.

2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Pending free agents traded during the month of July included Josh Reddick, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, Steve Pearce, Carlos Beltran, Ivan Nova, and Jesse Chavez.  Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, a midseason trade disqualifies a player from receiving a qualifying offer.  The value of the one-year offer is expected to be around $16.7MM this winter.  Since such an offer ties the player to draft pick compensation, avoiding one can be a big benefit for him.

The current CBA expires on December 1st of this year.  The November qualifying offer and acceptance dates remain in place until a new agreement is reached.  A new agreement could completely eliminate, modify, or maintain the current system.  It’s an unknown at this point.

Below, I’ve ranked the 2016-17 free agents by earning power.  You can view the full list of free agents here.

1.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes suffered a quad strain on July 8th, skipping the All-Star Game as a result.  While he’s avoided a DL stint thus far, Cespedes will be used as a left fielder for the remainder of the season as a precaution.  He’s expected to serve as the Mets’ designated hitter tonight against the Yankees, and doesn’t have to worry about playing the field until the team returns to National League contests on Tuesday.  In his brief 48 plate appearances since the injury, Cespedes’ power has been missing.  It remains to be seen how the injury will affect him over the Mets’ remaining 56 regular season games.  Regardless, Cespedes seems very likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract after the season.  If he does, he’ll likely retain his position as our top-ranked free agent.

2.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Encarnacion moves up a spot after a strong July.  He’s on pace for a career-high 44 home runs, and with 29 bombs to date he’s one behind Mark Trumbo and Todd Frazier for the MLB lead.  Since Encarnacion turns 34 in January, he seems limited to a four-year term in free agency.  Still, that could be at a salary of $20MM or more.

3.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick and teammate Rich Hill were traded by the A’s to the Dodgers on Monday’s trade deadline.  Reddick was a near-lock for a qualifying offer, so the trade boosts his earning power.  He doesn’t turn 30 until February, so Reddick should be in line for a four or five-year deal.  He had a strong July and has a chance to raise his profile as a key member of the Dodgers’ offense.

4.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman joins our top five for the first time.  The Cubs’ new closer also finds himself ineligible for a qualifying offer.  While I’ve felt Chapman’s October domestic violence incident could tamp down his free agent earning power, it didn’t seem to affect his trade value last month.  There is only one Aroldis Chapman, a lefty capable of pumping 104 mile per hour fastballs in the ninth inning.  The incident may have little bearing on his next contract.  It will be interesting to see Chapman and Kenley Jansen jockeying for record relief contracts this winter, possibly five-year deals in excess of $70MM.

5.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen’s excellent season continues, and he may be able to top his career-high of 44 saves.  Just 29 in September, Jansen is a dominant ninth inning force.  Some teams will prefer him to Chapman.

6.  Ian Desmond.  Desmond’s power resurgence may lead to his first career 30 home run season.  Slotting in around the top of the Rangers’ order, which is more imposing with the trade deadline additions of Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, Desmond could score 110 runs this year.  He leads all pending free agents with 4.4 wins above replacement, as a fine center fielder with renewed power.  Desmond will turn 31 in September.  He’s about the same age as Cespedes, but older than Reddick.  The comps don’t really matter though – free agency will be an auction for his services, and I imagine he’ll be seeking a five-year deal.  If Desmond gets that fifth year, he’ll likely out-earn everyone on this list aside from Cespedes.

7.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista tumbles down the Power Rankings, as I’m currently pegging him for a three-year deal.  36 in October, Bautista returned from a toe injury on July 25th.  He’ll need a strong finish to convince teams that his age 36-39 seasons are a strong investment, especially with a qualifying offer attached.

8.  Wilson Ramos.  Ramos posted a solid July and has already tied his career high of 16 home runs.  He’s been the most valuable catcher in baseball this year at 3.4 WAR, and doesn’t turn 29 until next week.  It’s time to start considering a five-year deal as a legitimate possibility for Ramos, whose earning power has skyrocketed with his well-timed breakout.

9.  Mark Trumbo.  Trumbo crushed seven more home runs in July.  He was the first player to reach 30 this year, and is on pace for 46 longballs for the season.  Like fellow free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, Trumbo is a liability on defense.  Trumbo strikes out more and walks less than EE, and consistently posts a low on-base percentage.  For some GMs, a 40 home run, 110 RBI right-handed bat for the middle of the order still speaks for itself.  Trumbo’s agent will likely be vying for a fourth year.

10.  Dexter Fowler.  The tenth spot came down to Fowler, Justin Turner, and Michael Saunders.  A case can be made for any of them, but I’ll take Fowler by a hair.  Fowler ranks eighth in baseball with a .403 OBP, and he plays center field.  Teams will be wary of going four years on a player with his injury history, but he’ll still do much better in free agency this time around.

Turner and Saunders each have a shot at their first 30 home run season.  Both players have already set career bests in homers.  Neither Turner nor Saunders has ever played 140 games in a season, so a four-year investment would be risky.

The 2016-17 free agent market looks historically bleak for starting pitching.  You’ve got Rich Hill, who has been brilliant but turns 37 in March and has been limited to 14 starts this year due to injuries.  One of the top starters might be Jeremy Hellickson, who turns 30 in April and has a 3.70 ERA in 22 starts for the Phillies.  Barring an August trade, however, Hellickson seems likely to come with a qualifying offer attached.  There’s also Andrew Cashner, the hardest-throwing free agent starter.  30 in September, Cashner is having another middling year and will try to finish on a high note with the Marlins.

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