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Blue Jays Sign Marcus Semien

By TC Zencka | January 30, 2021 at 11:54am CDT

JANUARY 30: The Blue Jays have announced the deal.

JANUARY 26: The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.

Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of the December 2014 Jeff Samardzija deal. For the next three seasons, Semien produced like a second-division starter, averaging 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that hike in value, however, came on the defensive end.

His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether another hulk-out season is coming. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a high-floor player with potential for more.

Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive scores (at least since 2018) by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. For that matter, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays. They can now continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more to likely start most games at first. That foursome – Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, and Biggio – has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.

This isn’t the first firework Toronto has lit this winter. Their lineup now features a well-fed George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood will help the bullpen, and don’t forget that the offseason began with the Jays keeping Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is projected around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent a spending increase, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payroll has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.

In terms of value, the Jays did well to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he’ll make slightly more in total dollars than we expected. Seeing Andrelton Simmons sign for $7.5MM less might feel disheartening at first, but Semien has the higher ceiling, and if nothing else, Toronto maintains the long-term integrity of the plan to keep Bichette at short by adding Semien over Simmons. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, and Bichette has as good a chance as any of them to stick at short.

At second, Semien should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore and Simmons in Minnesota, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Didi Gregorius is now the top option still available in free agency, with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto behind him.

For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Marcus Semien

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Tigers Sign Wilson Ramos

By TC Zencka | January 29, 2021 at 2:58pm CDT

JAN. 29: The Tigers have announced the signing.

JAN. 26: The Tigers have reached an agreement with free agent catcher Wilson Ramos on a one-year, $2MM deal, per José F. Fivera of Wow Deportes (via Twitter). Jon Heyman of MLB Network confirms the deal (via Twitter). The team has not yet announced the deal, as it’s pending a physical, but the deal is done, as posted by his agent, tweets Jason Beck of MLB.com.

Ramos returns to the American League Central for the first time since beginning his career with the Minnesota Twins. Since his debut in 2010, Ramos has accrued 3,623 plate appearances across 946 games for the Twins, Nationals, Rays, Phillies, and Mets. “Buffalo” was a popular player and borderline star in the District, but an injury while in the final stages of arbitration prompted the Nats to let him walk in free agency. The Rays, ever in need of catching help, took a flyer on Ramos, allowing him to rehab and return midway through the 2017 season. He was an All-Star for the Rays in 2018 for the second time of his career.

The 33-year-old backstop spent last season with the Mets, slashing .239/.297/.387 across 155 plate appearances. He boasts a solid 103 wRC+ mark for his career with .160 ISO, 16.6 strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate. He’ll have a chance to compete for “QB1” reps in Detroit. Grayson Greiner, Jake Rogers, Dustin Garneau, and Eric Haase will share the catchers room in the spring. Only Ramos, Greiner, and Rogers are currently on the 40-man roster. Signing Ramos buys some time for Rogers, should they want more time for the 25-year-old to develop. Per Fangraphs, Rogers was the top-ranked catcher in the Tigers system going into 2020.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Wilson Ramos

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Infield Notes: Phillies, Simmons, Wong, Tigers, Paredes

By TC Zencka | January 26, 2021 at 10:49pm CDT

The Phillies narrowed their focus on Andrelton Simmons before he signed with the Twins this afternoon, writes Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Didi Gregorius remains in play to return, but he may not be so keen on another one-year deal. Regardless, the Phillies prefer not to move Jean Segura back to short, notes Lauber. Even with Gregorius more-or-less the only remaining starting shortstop on the market, Segura’s presence, as well as Scott Kingery, means they don’t have to panic on an overpay. Should they ultimately strike out on Gregorius, Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto lurk as free agents, or the Phils could turn to the trade market to make a play for either Trevor Story of the Rockies or Javier Baez of the Cubs. Neither club has seemed particularly likely to move their star shortstop, but Phillies’ president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski might be the guy to convince them. Let’s check in on some other infield news…

  • With middle infielders flying off the shelves, Kolten Wong is seeing an uptick in interest, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). The ace defensive second baseman has seen at least preliminary interest from the Tigers, Mariners, Rays, Cubs, Phillies, and Cardinals, with whom he’s spent his entire career. Wong’s power disappeared in 2020, slashing .265/.350/.326, but he won a second consecutive Gold Glove Award and continued to be an on-base presence for the Cardinals. Wong has quietly posted 3.3 bWAR per 600 plate appearances throughout his career, and as he enters his age-30 season, he could prove one of the more impactful free agents remaining on the market.
  • The Tigers plan on experimenting with Isaac Paredes at second base, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Paredes is penciled in as the Tigers’ everyday third baseman, but manager A.J. Hinch said basically that there is no harm in expanding the 21-year-old’s skill set. He’s been on fire playing winter ball, and with Jeimer Candelario having a big season in 2020 (and Spencer Torkelson on his way to claim one of the infield corners,) it’s certainly worth testing the limits of Paredes’ defensive abilities.

 

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Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Notes Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Andrelton Simmons Dave Dombrowski Isaac Paredes Jean Segura Kolten Wong Scott Kingery

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Orioles Sign Freddy Galvis, Designate Chris Shaw

By TC Zencka | January 26, 2021 at 5:29pm CDT

Another shortstop comes off the board. The Baltimore Orioles have signed shortstop Freddy Galvis to a one-year contract, the team announced. The Rep 1 Baseball client will receive $1.5MM with a $250K bonus if he is traded, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun (via Twitter). There is not an option for a second year. First baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw was designated for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Shaw, per the club.

Galvis takes over at short for the recently-traded Jose Iglesias, another veteran whom the Orioles signed in free agency. Galvis has long been a starting shortstop in MLB, from his early days with the Phillies to last season with the Cincinnati Reds. He also played for the Blue Jays and Padres in his nine-year career. Durability has been a strength for Galvis. He achieved the rare-for-this-era achievement of appearing in all 162 games in back-to-back seasons with the Phillies in 2017 and Padres in 2018.

Last season with the Reds, Galvis slashed .220/.308/.404 with seven home runs, 8.2 percent walk rate, 18.9 percent strikeout rate and 90 wRC+. The switch-hitting Galvis is largely considered a solid defensive option up the middle. By measure of Statcast’s outs above average, however, Galvis may wield an elite glove. Though he registered -3 OAA in the shortened 2020 season, he finished 8th among shortstops in 2019 with 11 OAA and tied for third with Andrelton Simmons and Francisco Lindor in 2018 with 12 OAA.

Galvis won’t help the Orioles a ton with his bat. He routinely logs below-average hard hit rates, barrel rates, and walk rates. He does a pretty good job of putting the ball in play, however, and his power has jumped a notch with .178 ISO and .184 ISO the past two seasons. He’s also not a burner, finishing in the 28th percentile by sprint speed in 2020. For the Orioles, however, they’ll hope Galvis provides defensive support to their young pitching staff and leadership in the clubhouse. Should he prove productive, he could also serve as a trade chip at the deadline, a possibility for which both player and team are clearly aware, given the trade clause in his contract.

Shaw’s time with the O’s, meanwhile, will apparently prove quite brief. Baltimore claimed him off waivers from the Giants back in late November, and he’ll now very possibly be exposed to waivers a second time. The 27-year-old was once the 31st overall draft pick by the prior San Francisco front-office regime, and he has a solid-looking .280/.328/.538 slash line in about 1000 plate appearances of Triple-A ball. Shaw, though, also has a 30 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A and hasn’t hit well at all in 82 big league plate appearances. The O’s have a week to trade him, release him or attempt to pass him through waivers themselves.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Transactions Chris Shaw Freddy Galvis

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No Players Elected To Hall Of Fame

By TC Zencka | January 26, 2021 at 5:26pm CDT

There were no players who received the 75 percent vote threshold necessary for election into the Hall of Fame. Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens came closest to achieving the necessary vote total, but they ultimately fell short. Schilling came the closest with 71.1% of the vote (16 votes shy), while Scott Rolen saw the biggest year-over-year jump. There were 14 blank ballots. With less than five percent of the vote, Aramis Ramirez, LaTroy Hawkins, Barry Zito, A.J. Burnett, Michael Cuddyer, Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, and Shane Victorino will fall off the ballot. The full results are here.

Controversy surrounded this year’s ballot in particular because it was considered a weaker overall class of first-time nominees. That meant that the holdovers took center stage, a group largely comprised of players with character issues and controversy at the heart of their Hall of Fame cases, namely Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, and Omar Vizquel. For Schilling’s part, in a letter that he wrote to the Hall of Fame (and later shared on Facebook), he has requested that his name be removed from the ballot next season. Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network reports that he does not have the ability to simply remove his name from the list, nor does the Hall of Fame – though the Hall of Fame committee responded to say they would consider Schilling’s request.

The induction ceremony will still take place on July 25, 2021. Last year’s induction ceremony was postponed because of the pandemic, so last year’s class of Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller will hopefully be inducted during that July ceremony, though much still hangs in the balance as far as the pandemic is concerned.

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Newsstand Barry Bonds Curt Schilling Derek Jeter Larry Walker

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Latest On The Issue Of A Delayed Spring Training

By TC Zencka | January 26, 2021 at 4:41pm CDT

Members of the Cactus League penned a letter to MLB and commissioner Rob Manfred yesterday requesting the delay of Spring Training due to a rising number of coronavirus cases in Maricopa County. The MLBPA responded swiftly, reinforcing their position that they have no plans to delay the season. MLB cannot delay the start of spring training without approval from the MLBPA.

After news of the letter broke yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote, “Both MLB and the players association put out bland statements. The key behind the scenes is to know the union sees the Cactus League officials as tools of MLB.”

Today, Alex Coffey of the Athletic reports that a representative from MLB “encouraged members of the Cactus League to write a letter to to commissioner Rob Manfred voicing a desire to delay the start of spring training…” Truthfully, this revelation doesn’t likely change much, as those involved clearly already had a sense for the politics at play here, and the MLBPA seemed wholly unmoved by the letter.

Meanwhile, Cactus League executive director Bridget Binsbacher denies that there was any pressure from the league to write the letter. Coffey provides a quote from a source that seems to put this public squabble in perspective: “I do think two things can be true. City leaders feel like they are doing right on health policy. The owners and league staff are using that to their advantage, perhaps without the cities having any sense about it.”

Certainly, though it’s easy to demonize MLB for politicizing the pandemic and using public opinion to coerce the MLBPA into a weaker negotiating position so that they might achieve their financial goals, the MLBPA can be cast in an equally harsh light if we assume a delay really is the safest course of action. Negotiating through the public square usually creates particularly antagonistic optics, but the reality here is that the two sides are going to keep negotiating on these points until they find an acceptable common ground.

In the meantime, the beat goes on. The Arizona Diamondbacks released a statement detailing the progress that continues to be made in preparation for the season. From the release: “The U.S. Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) joined the Cactus League, its teams and spring training facilities, and state and local partners Tuesday for a virtual tabletop exercise to review pre-incident preparedness measures and response plans at stadiums during spring training.  While several of the teams and stadiums regularly review plans and conduct drills, for the second year in a row, a leaguewide exercise was held to allow everyone to share best practices and discuss coordination should an incident affect more than one venue.  The exercise scenario included an information and intelligence sharing piece among public and private sectors, and an active threat at a ballpark.  Tuesday’s exercise was held virtually due to COVID-19 restrictions and was not in a response to any specific threat.”

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MLBPA Coronavirus Rob Manfred

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Brewers Among Teams Showing Interest In Justin Turner

By TC Zencka | January 26, 2021 at 3:51pm CDT

Yesterday we learned that free agent Justin Turner had a final four teams he was considering for 2021. The Dodgers and Blue Jays have long been known as interested parties, but now we can add the Brewers as the third team looking to woo Turner, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Turner wants a four-year deal, but that seems unlikely for the 36-year-old. The Dodgers hope to bring him back for two, but if another team is willing to go to three years for the GEM Agency client, that could be enough to pry Turner from LA. Whether the Blue Jays, Brewers, or the final mystery team are willing to make that kind of commitment to Turner is TBD.

The Brewers are an interesting entrant into the Turner sweepstakes. They have about $25MM before hitting their luxury tax payroll from 2020, so there’s room for a splashy addition if the Brewers are going to maintain their payroll. That’s a big “if,” however. The Brewers have been largely inactive thus far, however, with their only Major League contract going to infielder Daniel Robertson, who figures to play a reserve role for Milwaukee.

The Brewers have a host of young, promising, but unproven infield contributors who could move around the diamond to accommodate Turner.  Keston Hiura demands a lineup spot, and he’ll probably play the keystone, while Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia are their other likely starters. Arcia has had more than enough time to establish himself, and outside of some postseason and big-game heroics, he hasn’t done enough to guarantee his starting spot. A career slash line of .244/.295/.366, with a roughly-average 20.1 percent strikeout rate, and below-average 6.6 percent walk rate definitely leaves room for improvement. Turner’s 130 wRC+, for instance, would give the Brewers’ lineup quite the boost from Arcia’s 71 wRC+ career mark.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Toronto Blue Jays Justin Turner Mystery Team

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Tigers To Sign Derek Holland

By TC Zencka | January 26, 2021 at 3:14pm CDT

JAN 26: If Holland makes the Major League team, he will make $925K with the potential for another $150K in incentives, per Petzold (via Twitter). He will also have opportunities to opt out of the contract should he not make the Major League team, though the exact conditions of those opt-outs are unclear.

JAN 23: Derek Holland is a Detroit Tiger, he announced via his Twitter bio. The veteran lefty will join the Tigers on a minor league deal, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). The Tigers will invite Holland to Major League camp with the intention of utilizing him out of the bullpen, notes Jon Morosi of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The deal has not been announced by the club.

The well-traveled southpaw spent 2020 with the Pirates after previous stops on the Cubs, Giants, White Sox and Rangers. He’s best known for his eight-year stay with the Rangers from 2009 to 2016. He spent much of that time in the Rangers’ rotation, including one start in the 2011 World Series. Holland went 8 1/3 innings giving up just two hits and two walks while striking out seven to beat the Cardinals 4-0. Though that series didn’t end as planned for the Rangers, Holland’s performance in that game four win certainly marked a highlight for the then-25-year-old. Holland was a bit of a breakout star on that 2011 pennant-winning team, throwing 198 innings with a 3.95 ERA/3.94 FIP and 3.1 fWAR.

His best overall season would come two years later. During that 4.5 fWAR 2013 campaign, Holland logged 213 innings with a 3.42 ERA/3.44 FIP, 40.8 percent groundball rate, 21.1 percent strikeout rate, and 7.2 percent walk rate. Unfortunately, Holland’s career took a turn the following season when left knee surgery cut his season to just 37 innings. Shoulder problems limited his 2016 season to 10 starts and 58 2/3 innings as his run prevention numbers rose to a 4.91 ERA/5.30 FIP.

Holland has since settled in as a swingman, primarily working out of the bullpen the past two seasons. He made five starts and seven bullpen appearances for the Pirates in 2020, finishing with a 6.86 ERA/6.14 FIP. Though those numbers don’t offer much promise, and batted ball metrics show he’s been hit hard the past two years, he did log a solid 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 8.4 percent walk rate.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions Derek Holland

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Masahiro Tanaka In Negotiations To Return To Rakuten Eagles

By TC Zencka | January 25, 2021 at 10:57pm CDT

Free-agent righty Masahiro Tanaka could be nearing a return to his native Japan, as a report from Sankei Sports — and translated here by Jim Allen — indicates that the Rakuten Eagles are preparing to make an offer. Tanaka does not appear to have closed off the possibility of returning to MLB entirely, but Allen suggests that the Eagles “appear to be the leading contender” to sign the longtime Yankees righty. Tanaka played for the Eagles from 2007 to 2013.

Tanaka’s stay in New York was an unmitigated success. Over seven years, he posted a 3.74 ERA/3.91 ERA with a 47.5 percent groundball rate, 23.1 percent strikeout rate, and 4.8 percent walk rate over 1,054 1/3 innings. He made two All-Stars teams and had been nails in the postseason before two rough playoff starts in 2020. Many assumed that he would just return to the Yankees this winter, but New York has thus far moved in a different direction with the additions of Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. Meanwhile, there has been very little buzz regarding a return to pinstripes for Tanaka.

That said, if Tanaka desires to stay in the States, he should have no trouble finding a home. The 32-year-old’s track record makes him one of the top starters left on the market. Our free agent predictions had Tanaka as the No. 10 free agent on the market – the top starting option remaining after NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer. Teams have been slow to dole out money this winter, however, which could certainly play a role in Tanaka looking elsewhere for a place to pitch in 2021.

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New York Yankees Masahiro Tanaka

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Quick Hits: Dodgers, Blue Jays, Turner, Nationals, MASN, Mets, Minaya

By TC Zencka | January 25, 2021 at 10:02pm CDT

Justin Turner has four options on the table that would place him on a contender, with the Dodgers and Blue Jays two of the four, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Still, Heyman notes, the Dodgers are confident they will be able to bring Turner back to Chavez Ravine. The hold-up continues to be the length of the deal, as Los Angeles targets a two-year pact, while the 36-year-old seeks four years. Speculatively speaking, looking for other potential landing spots leads naturally to the NL East, where any of the Braves, Nationals, Mets, or Marlins could theoretically find room for Turner. Elsewhere…

  • The Nationals responded today with a statement to recent cuts made by the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network. The Nats’ years-long headache over MASN – the local sports network co-owned by the Nationals and Orioles, but controlled by the Orioles – took another turn this week as on-air personalities Dan Kolko, Bo Porter, and Alex Chappell were let go without prior notice being given to the Nats, per Ben Strauss and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. In the Nationals’ statement, provided by the Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli (via Twitter), they wrote, “…To say that we are incredibly disappointed and upset by MASN’s decisions would be a gross understatement. To be clear – these decisions were made by MASN and against our wishes…” Porter, of course, was a coach with the Nationals from 2011 to 2012 and later managed the Astros for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. He has teamed with Kolko on pre- and postgame shows since 2019, during which time Chappell has served as a dugout reporter.
  • Omar Minaya will accept an ambassadorship with the Mets to be a public presence for the organization, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). Minaya’s relationship with the Mets dates back to childhood, but his professional career began drawing notice during his time as an assistant general manager from 1998 to 2001. He became the Mets’ general manager from 2004 until 2010, when he was succeeded by Sandy Alderson. After four years with the Padres and some time working for the MLBPA, Minaya returned to serve as one of Alderson’s lieutenants in 2017. He stayed on with the team through the Brodie Van Wagenen era, but he was let go as part of the housecleaning under the new ownership of Steve Cohen. Minaya now returns for his fourth stint with the team. It does not sound as if Minaya will have any impact on baseball operations.

 

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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Notes Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Bo Porter Justin Turner Omar Minaya

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