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Minor MLB Transactions: 1/25/21

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Let’s check in on the latest minor moves from around the game …

  • The Astros signed Houston native C.J. Hinojosa to a minor league deal, per Robert Murray of FanSided (via Twitter). Hinojosa was actually drafted by the Astros in the 26th round of the 2012 draft, but instead chose to attend the University of Texas at Austin where he starred as a sophomore in the College World Series. After a disappointing junior season, he was then made an 11th round draft choice by the Giants in 2015. A versatile defender who can play all over the infield, he was ranked among the Giants’ top-30 prospects by Baseball America in both 2017 and 2018. Prior to the 2018 season, BA wrote, “He’s best when he’s spraying the ball around the field, and is especially pesky at poking line drives down the right-field line, but he has a lot of fringe-average to average tools and no real plus tool on his scouting report. He plays shortstop plausibly enough defensively to fill-in, but he lacks the range to play there everyday. Hinojosa missed the start of the 2017 season with a quad strain, but when he returned he went right back to looking like a future big league utility infielder.” He tore his Achilles during the 2017 season, but eventually returned to Double-A during the 2018 season where he slashed .261/.327/.360 across 283 plate appearances. The 26-year-old played independent ball in 2020.

Shortstop Notes: Simmons, Story, Polanco

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The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

  • Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.
  • The Twins may be one of the mystery teams taking a look at Simmons. When asked by Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (video link) if Jorge Polanco would be their opening day shortstop, Twins GM Thad Levin said, “I think we look at our team and say Byron Buxton’s our opening day centerfielder, and Josh Donaldson’s our opening day third baseman – almost everyone else on our team has defensive flexibility. We view that as a huge boon to our team.” Wolfson notes that the Twins know the asking prices for free agent shortstops Simmons and Marcus Semien are keeping an eye on it.
  • To be clear, Levine in no way implied that Polanco would not be a big part of their team in 2021, only that they consider the defensive malleability of the current roster as one of their advantages – both in the market and on the ball field. By DRS, OAA, and UZR, Polanco has measured as a subpar defender at shortstop throughout his career, and the Twins may see value in moving him to second in order to upgrade the infield defense on the whole. More broadly, the Twins appear keen on making the “best” free agent deal they can find, regardless of position. If flexibility really is central to the Twins’ philosophy, that could help explain any reticence they might have about locking Nelson Cruz into the designated hitter spot . That said, it’s hard to imagine finding any player better at their position than Cruz was as their DH the last two seasons (163 wRC+).

Red Sox Notes: Ottavino, Luxury Tax, Bradley Jr.

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Red Sox’ Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom addressed a number of questions about the offseason moves they have (and haven’t) made so far this winter, per the reporters present, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, and the Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. The call was prompted by the club’s recent (and rare) transaction with their chief rival. Bloom noted that they looked “under the hood” at Adam Ottavino’s 2020 numbers and believe the assumption of his poor performance in 2020 may be misguided. In particular, he notes one particularly poor outing against the Blue Jays in which he surrendered six earned runs without recording an out. Take out that September 7th appearance, and Ottavino’s ERA drops from 5.89 to 2.95. Of course, that outing did happen. Even so, there’s a positive read in Ottavino’s 2020 stat line:  3.52 FIP, 3.62 SIERA, 29.4 percent strikeout rate, and 10.6 percent walk rate suggest the right-hander was close to the same guy he ’d been in 2019, when he formed an important part of the Yankees’ bullpen. Ottavino figures to play a heavy role in the back-end of Boston’s bullpen, though the dispersal of responsibilities between Ottavino and incumbent closer Matt Barnes is TBD. More from Bloom…

  • The Yankees moved Ottavino to trim enough salary to duck the $210MM luxury tax line, but according to Bloom, it’s not a foregone conclusion that the Red Sox will do the same. With Ottavino in the fold, the Red Sox luxury tax payroll appears to be around $206MM, which certainly doesn’t leave very much room to spare. While the plan is to avoid the tax, that’s not a firm mandate, Bloom notes.
  • Even taking Bloom at his word, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox going over the luxury tax when so many teams these days work so diligently to avoid it – especially in a season where the Red Sox are largely projected to be an afterthought to the Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays in the AL East. The Red Sox aren’t probably quite as quick to write off their 2021 season, of course. Still, it’s fair to wonder if they have the funds remaining to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. The team remains in contact with Bradley, however, and plans to do so “until his free agency resolves.” Though your read may differ, Bloom’s passive word choice doesn’t project the picture of an aggressive forthcoming attempt to woo Bradley back to Fenway, despite his point here being that a reunion remains possible.

Latest On Yasiel Puig And The Outfield Market

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JANUARY 24: Jon Heyman of MLB Network casts doubt on the Yankees as a potential fit for Puig, tweeting that there’s “no evidence” New York has interest in adding another right-handed hitting outfielder.

JANUARY 23: The Marlins have been tied to a number of outfielders lately, including Anthony Santander of the Orioles and Andrew Benintendi of the Red Sox. Limited financial resources will curb their willingness to bid on free agent options like Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario, tweets Jon Heyman. They do, however, have some prospect capital that they’re willing to spend on the right player. At present, Corey Dickerson returns to left, Starling Marte to center, and Garrett Cooper to right, with Brian Anderson occasionally shifting from third base to right, and Lewis Brinson, Harold Ramirez, and Magneuris Sierra filling as speed and defensive replacements. If the Marlins go the free agent route, however, they may explore a union with Yasiel Puig. Not having played in the Majors since 2019, Puig is a candidate to sign a value or incentive-laden deal, should if he land a contract this winter.

The Yankees and Royals are also possible destinations for Puig, per Jim Bowden of MLB Network (via Twitter). For the Royals’ part, they have been looking for another bat to join a largely-unproven group in the grass made up of Franchy Cordero, Michael A. Taylor, and a number of options who could end up elsewhere on the diamond, such as Whit Merrifield, Ryan McBroom, Hunter Dozier, and likely DH Jorge Soler. In looking to add to that group, they’ve generally zeroed in on left-handed hitters. Even with the group they have in-house, the Royals could possibly still add a couple of outfielders, if the price were right.

As for the Yankees, they would be a surprising destination for Puig, if there were no corresponding moves. They are, after all, pretty well-stocked in the outfield with Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, and Mike Tauchman on the roster, Greg Allen on the 40-man roster, and Brett Gardner hanging out in free agency. Puig’s colorful personality would also be an interesting fit on the Yankees, who for literal and metaphorical reasons are generally regarded as a clean-cut organization. Still, that doesn’t preclude Puig from heading to the Bronx. After all, it’s not as if an interesting character or two haven’t donned pinstripes in the past.

Jameson Taillon Could Be Next Pirates Player To Be Traded

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10:45 pm: A trade does appear to be on the horizon, potentially as soon as tomorrow, per Jason Mackey (via Twitter). By all accounts, nothing has been finalized. The Pirates are said to be looking for high-ceiling prospects, even if that means taking players who are further away from reaching the Majors.

8:45 pm: The Yankees are indeed one of the teams talking to the Pirates about Taillon, tweets MLB Insider Jon Heyman. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) goes as far as to say they “appear to be emerging as the frontrunner.” The Yankees are not the only team involved, however, as the Pirates have offers from multiple teams, adds Jason Mackey of PGSportsNow. Taillon has two years of control remaining.

2:23 pm: Joe Musgrove now gets his paychecks from the San Diego Padres, and Josh Bell his from the Washington Nationals, so it’s only natural that someone step into the void as the “next Pirates player to be traded.” According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter), right-hander Jameson Taillon is in the proverbial on-deck circle. Feinsand and MLB.com’s Adam Berry hear that Jameson could be moved as soon as this weekend.

When Taillon made his debut as a 24-year-old in 2016, he and then-rotation-mate Gerrit Cole represented a promising core that was meant to build on the success of a 98-win 2015 team. That future never quite came to be, of course, as the Pirates fell back to the basement of the NL Central and now face yet another organizational rebuild. From that perspective, trades of the roster’s veterans are borderline inevitable. Still, a Taillon trade at this juncture is not without its complications, given his uncertain status returning from Tommy John surgery. Taillon went under the knife in August 2019, missing the entire 2020 season. It was the second Tommy John surgery of his career.

Taillon’s one full season came in 2018 when he made 32 starts and logged 191 innings with a 3.20 ERA/3.46 FIP, 22.8 percent strikeout rate, 5.9 percent walk rate, and 46.2 percent walk rate. That’s the version of Taillon that will stick in the heads of opposing teams as they consider acquiring the 29-year-old. Generally speaking, Taillon brings better-than-average strikeout rates, near-elite walk rates, and a career-average 85 FIP-. Though expectations should be tempered to reflect his injury status, it’s fair to hope that Taillon might again provide mid-rotation-or-better production for a contender.

The Yankees were linked to Taillon earlier this offseason and could still be a potential landing spot. Of course, it would not be hard to find a team in need of a starting pitcher – even one coming off his second TJ surgery. Given the caution with which most teams are approaching increasing workloads for 2021, a rehabbing hurler like Taillon may benefit from a smoother transition back to action, as he would not be expected to post a 200-inning season out of the blocks.

Quick Hits: Alex Wood, Giants, Twins, Ehire Adrianza

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Alex Wood’s one-year contract with the Giants pays out $3MM with another $3MM in incentives, but it’s the structure of those incentives that makes the contract unique, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports.com. Wood’s deal will reward the southpaw for consistency working deep into games. He’ll make $150K after 12 games of 10-plus outs, and another $150K after 14 such games. He’d then get $250K for each of 16, 18, 22, and 24 10-out games, and $500K for 26, 28, or 30 10-out outings. Given the 3 1/3 inning threshold, Wood should have a decent chance of reaching those benchmarks if he’s in the rotation, but the structure leaves open the possibility of earning his incentives even if he works as an opener or follower.

  • Speaking of Wood, he almost signed with the Giants last season, but he chose to return to the Dodgers instead to take his best shot at winning a World Series ring, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. That worked out about as well as possible, but now Wood hopes to return to the rotation on a regular basis. Wood made just two starts with the Dodgers in 2020, working a total of 12 2/3 innings (which included seven relief appearances). He spent more than a month on the injured list suffering from shoulder inflammation. With the Giants, he’ll have an opportunity to pitch his way back into the rotation. That said, after bringing back Kevin Gausman and signing Anthony DeSclafani, Wood is not without competition for those starting spots. He’ll have to stay healthy as well, which has not been a given for Wood in recent seasons.
  • Ehire Adrianza signaled an end to his time in Minnesota with a post on instagram thanking the fans in Minnesota for his four years there. As of now, however, it’s not readily apparent if Adrianza has a new team lined up for 2021, per Chris Miller of the Star Tribune. The versatile switch-hitter has played everywhere on the diamond except for centerfield over his eight-year career. He spent four seasons with the Giants and the last four with the Twins, compiling a career triple slash line of .244/.310/.360, good for an 82 wRC+. The 31-year-old doesn’t offer a lot of pop, but he generally puts the ball in play and walked at a 10.9 percent clip in 2020. He may be a value option for a team that had interest in but missed out on either Jurickson Profar or Enrique Hernández.

Minor Transactions: 1/23/21

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The latest minor moves from around the game…

  • Former Nationals farmhand Drew Ward has signed a minor league deal with the Tigers, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). The 26-year-old was a third round pick by the Nats back in 2013. He posted a 105 wRC+ in Triple-A and 139 wRC+ in Double-A during the 2019 season for the Nats. He consistently posted solid offensive numbers on his march through the Nats’ system, though his walk rate fell below average in 2019 as his strikeout rate shot up close to an unsightly 40 percent. The lefty bat can play both infield corners and serve as depth in that regard for the Tigers. It should be noted that while Ward’s walk rate and strikeout rate worsened in 2019, Ward’s isolated power numbers proved the best of his young career. If an approach shift resulted in selling out for power more often than not, Ward at least registered a .232 ISO across 205 plate appearances in Double-A and .270 ISO in 117 Triple-A plate appearances. Not to mention, Ward slashed a robust .335/.407/.633 with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate while playing Indy ball in 2020.

Free Agency Notes: Mets, Richards, Red Sox, Profar, Bench Bat

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The Mets made a play for Garrett Richards before the veteran righty signed with the Red Sox, notes MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Mets have made their rotation a project this offseason. They are seemingly in a good place even without Richards, however. Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Marcus Stroman make for a very strong top three, and hopes remain high that David Peterson will maintain a spot behind them. Noah Syndergaard plans to join that group at some point, and even if Seth Lugo returns to the bullpen, the Mets have no shortage of depth options – foremost of which might be the recently-acquired Joey Lucchesi. Beyond the ex-Padre, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, Franklyn Kilome, Corey Oswalt, and Jerad Eickhoff surely have eyes for the rotation. In other news…

  • The Red Sox themselves were runners-up in an attempt to sign Jurickson Profar, per the San Diego Union-Tribune. Boston, of course, ended up with Kiké Hernández on a similar, but shorter contract. It’s not clear if the Red Sox preferred Profar to Hernandez, though Hernández signing merely hours after Profar re-upped with San Diego is notable. Still, one does not necessarily follow the other. All we can say for certain is that Profar’s returning to San Diego thinned Boston’s market for versatile utility types. That the Red Sox engaged in parallel negotiations with similar players doesn’t actually speak to their priorities where those players are concerned.
  • After all, they may very well have been interested in signing both players, as Boston remains on the hunt for a lefty bench bat. In a perfect world, the Red Sox would find someone who could complement Bobby Dalbec at first, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Cotillo floats Marwin Gonzalez, Brad Miller, and Mitch Moreland as some players that might fit the bill. Boston’s bench leans heavily to the right at present, with Jonathan Arauz as one of very few organizational options as a lefty bat off the bench unless Jarren Duran makes the team out of spring training.

Red Sox To Sign Martín Pérez

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The Red Sox and southpaw Martín Pérez have agreed to join forces for a second consecutive season, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com confirms the deal, pending a physical. Pérez will earn a  $4.5MM salary in 2021 with a $6MM option for 2022 that comes with a $500K buyout (Twitter links). He’ll also earn an extra $100K for every ten innings starting at 130 innings in 2021, with a max of $500K, adds Rosenthal. Pérez is represented by the OL Baseball Group.

Last year’s pact worked out well enough for both sides to essentially roll it back at a slightly lower price point. Boston declined its $6.25MM option this past November, instead paying a $500K buyout. After being guaranteed $6.5MM last year, Pérez signs for a $5MM guarantee this time around with the potential for an additional $6MM if Boston picks up their 2022 option.

Cotillo has said all winter that the Red Sox will need to add at least two arms for their rotation, so an agreement with Pérez doesn’t preclude a later deal for an arm like Garrett Richards, Matt Moore, or Jake Odorizzi. Still, Pérez fills a big hole as a safe bet to eat innings. He ably manned that post in 2020 for the Red Sox, averaging more than five innings per start over 12 starts. He had a 4.50 ERA/4.88 FIP with just a 17.6 percent strikeout rate, 10.7 percent walk rate, and 38.5 percent groundball rate.

While those numbers themselves won’t get the Red Sox back into contention, they represent an important level of consistency. A rebuilding club like Boston relies on rote veteran production at certain places on the roster in order to embolden the coaching staff and front office as they maneuver a grueling 162-game season. For example, they can resist the temptation to rush younger arms while Chris Sale works his way back from injury. In-game, they can be more conservative with Eduardo Rodriguez’s innings knowing that Pérez can help protect the bullpen from overuse.

Boston’s rotation, after all, is riddled with long-term injury concerns. As of right now, Pérez joins Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta in their starting five, though as we mentioned above, Boston’s working with a dynamic pool of rotation candidates at this time. Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock could be a candidate for starts, Sale should return at some point during the season, and they’ll take a look at younger arms like Connor Seabold and Bryan Mata during spring training.

MLBTR Poll: Let’s Be The Braves’ Arbitration Panel

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The Braves are heading to arbitration hearings with Dansby Swanson and Mike Soroka. That is, unless they sign multi-year deals beforehand, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Otherwise, Atlanta will have a pair of interesting arbitration cases on their hands.

Swanson enjoyed a BABIP-driven spike in production over 2020’s 60-game season, logging a career-high 2.9 bWAR while appearing in all 60 games. That’s not an extrapolated career-high, that was Swanson arguably accomplishing more in his 264 plate appearances than he’d managed in 545, 533, or 551 plate appearances in 2019, 2018, or 2017, respectively. Not knowing how the arbitration panel is going to treat the truncated season makes evaluating Swanson’s season a tough task. Still, team and player aren’t that far apart, with the Braves submitting $6MM to Swanson’s $6.7MM, per O’Brien.

Soroka might be an even tougher case to decide, as the 23-year-old heads to arbitration for the first time. Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular thus far with a 2.86 career ERA/3.40 FIP, a 50.9 percent groundball rate, 19.6 percent strikeout rate, and 6.3 percent walk rate. Injuries have been the bugaboo for the Soroka, however, evidenced by a mere 214 innings across three seasons. Shoulder issues limited Soroka to just five starts in 2018, and he tore his Achilles just three starts into 2020.

In between, however, Soroka blossomed into one of the best pitchers in the National League. In 2019, he made 29 starts, logged 174 2/3 innings, and pitched to a 2.68 ERA/3.45 FIP with a 20.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.8 percent walk rate, and 51.2 percent groundball rate. While Soroka’s heavy sinker seems to gift him with the ability to depress launch angles and burn worms, not all of Soroka’s advanced metrics are sterling. Even in 2019 he gave up a fair amount of hard contact (37.5 percent hard hit rate) and enjoyed a sub-average .280 BABIP that may not be repeatable. He finished the year with a 4.12 expected ERA, per Statcast.

O’Brien seems to think a long-term deal is a definite possibility for Soroka, but it would be a risky move for the Braves given Soroka’s injury history. Assuming Soroka doesn’t sign an extension, he’ll head to arbitration having submitted a $2.8MM salary for 2021, with the Braves countering at $2.1MM.

Predicting what arbitration panels will do is a fool’s errand, so let’s leave them to their work and decide this for ourselves. (poll links for app users)

How much should Dansby Swanson make in 2021?
$6.0MM 43.38% (3,630 votes)
$6.7MM 30.44% (2,547 votes)
Doesn't matter because he's going to sign an extension. 26.17% (2,190 votes)
Total Votes: 8,367
How much should Mike Soroka make in 2021?
$2.8MM 45.11% (3,633 votes)
$2.1MM 31.20% (2,513 votes)
Doesn't matter, becuase he's going to sign an extension. 23.69% (1,908 votes)
Total Votes: 8,054

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