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AL East Notes: Estrada, Orioles, Rasmus, Young

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Fangraphs’ Tony Blengino examines Marco Estrada’s curious skill set, pointing out that metrics such as FIP don’t give the soft-tossing righty full credit for his unrivaled ability to limit line-drives. Additionally, hitters league-wide do less damage on fly-balls hit off pitches thrown between 75 and 94 mph, Blengino notes, so Estrada’s lower velocity and extreme fly-ball tendencies actually work reasonably well together. With a lack of line-drives, more weak contact than average on grounders and limited damage on his glut of fly-balls, Estrada could be a huge bargain this winter if he can he had on a two- or three-year deal worth $8MM or so per year, Blengino writes. Blengino notes that Estrada “lives on the head of a pin,” and even minor changes in his arsenal could be significant detriments, but with a relatively minimal price tag, he concludes that Estrada is worth the risk in the aforementioned price range.

More from the AL East as the Blue Jays look to rally back against the Rangers in the decisive Game 5 of the ALDS…

  • The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina writes that Orioles GM/executive vice president Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter laughed off reports of tension between the two when asked about their reportedly strained relationship. Duquette characterized such reports as little more than gossip, while Showalter said that it’s healthy for the two to disagree. “We better disagree about some things and kick things around,” said Showalter. “I disagree with my coaches. They disagree with me. That’s the least of our challenges. Throughout the organization we have a healthy draw of opinions, almost too much sometimes.” Encina went on to look at some of the things that went wrong this year, noting that many within the clubhouse were furious to see Tommy Hunter traded shortly after the team strengthened the roster by adding Gerardo Parra. Players felt it was a cost-cutting measure when the team should be striving for the playoffs.
  • The Orioles made a run at Colby Rasmus as a replacement for Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz last winter, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore was willing to match Rasmus’ 2014 salary of $7MM on a one-year deal but didn’t want to go beyond that point. When the Astros offered $8MM, the Orioles backed out of the pursuit. While many will look at Rasmus’ postseason heroics and chalk it up as another missed opportunity for Baltimore, Connolly points out that Rasmus’ marginal regular season production wouldn’t have been enough to make a big impact on Baltimore’s bottom-line results this season anyway.
  • The Orioles have offered 2016 contracts to each member of their 2015 coaching staff, Duquette told reporters, including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link). The Orioles are hoping to finalize each of those deals this week, he adds.
  • Outfielder Chris Young had a strong rebound season as a platoon outfield option for the Yankees in 2015, but the free-agent-to-be told Dan Martin and George A. King III of the New York Post a few days ago that it’s still too soon to tell whether he’ll be back in 2016 or not. Young said that he being with the Yankees from late 2014 through the 2015 season and made some adjustments in the Bronx that helped revive his production. However, I’d point out that as a free agent this time around, he’ll have a much stronger case than last winter. Fourth outfield types such as Rajai Davis and Nate McClouth have signed two-year deals worth between $10-11MM in total over the past few seasons, so Young will certainly be looking at an increase on his $2.5MM base salary from 2015.

AL Notes: Mariners, Rondon, Orioles, Hazen

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New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto says that he believes the organization can win by building around its core, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. “Whether it be through the primary market of free-agent and trade acquisition or the secondary market of waivers, smaller trade [and] Minor League deals, you can come up with a very creative roster balance that will allow this team to contend now,” Dipoto said. “I believe that the quality of the core group screams for it. You’ve got too many good players to believe that you’re far away from winning.” Adding depth and athleticism while improving the pen are some of Dipoto’s priorities heading into the winter.

Here are some more notes out of the American League:

  • The Tigers haven’t given up on powerful 24-year-old Bruce Rondon despite the fact that he hasn’t yet evolved into a reliable MLB presence, James Schmehl of MLive.com writes. We’ve heard this news item before, of course, but Schmehl provides a host of quotes from Detroit GM Al Avila which are interesting not only in regard to Rondon, but more generally. “I’ve had many conversations with him. He’s trying to figure it out,” Avila said. “You have to understand that we all come from different backgrounds, and we all have different experiences, and everybody learns at a different pace.” The veteran baseball man continued: “If he returns a mature young man, he’s got all the ability in the world. The ability’s there. It’s a matter of all the other intangibles that every other player at some point goes through. Some easier than others.”
  • The Orioles’ relief corps could be in for a makeover this winter, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Righty Dylan Bundy is perhaps the most intriguing possible addition. His progression is still hardly a sure thing, but the early returns are promising. The two surest things, suggests Kubatko, are closer Zach Britton and righty Brad Brach. Youngster Mychal Givens also seems likely to earn a spot. Otherwise, there are plenty of options but little in the way of certainty. At a minimum, says Kubatko, the club will be in the market for a lefty reliever.
  • Just-promoted Red Sox GM Mike Hazen is humble and hard-working, the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes. And those attributes may just be the key to his success. The piece offers an interesting look at the 39-year-old executive and is well worth a read.

De Fratus, Parmelee, Marcum Elect Free Agency

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Several players with significant big league service time have elected free agency since the conclusion of the regular season. Per baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, players with more than three years of Major League service time that have been outrighted off a 40-man roster have the right to elect free agency at season’s end.

This list — not to be confused with our full list of 2015-16 free agents (which has been updated to include these names) — represents some of the players that would’ve been arbitration eligible following the season and were regular or fairly regular contributors recently but now find themselves on the open market after being outrighted…

  • First baseman and outfielder Chris Parmelee has elected free agency, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Parmelee spent the 2015 season in the Orioles organization and made 102 plate appearances with the big league club. He hit a modest .216/.255/.433, but he was much better at Triple-A. The 27-year-old is a career .245/.311/.396 hitter in 1,003 plate appearances. He spent his entire career with the Twins prior to joining Baltimore this year.
  • Veteran pitcher Shaun Marcum is also a free agent, per the same tweet from Cotillo. Marcum, 33, is a well-traveled veteran of eight seasons (he didn’t pitch in the majors in 2009 or 2014). He’s tossed 1,030 innings with 167 starts, 28 relief appearances, and a 3.93 ERA. More recently, he struggled at the major league level. He has a 5.34 ERA since 2013 in 113 innings. This season with the Indians, Marcum continued to post a decent strikeout (7.71 K/9) and walk (2.83 BB/9) rate, but he allowed nine home runs in just 33 innings. The fly ball pitcher throws just 85 mph.
  • Justin De Fratus has elected to become a free agent, the right-hander announced via his Instagram page (hat tip to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer).  De Fratus praised the Phillies organization and thanked it for giving him his start as a professional ballplayer “but it’s time for me to start a new chapter in my life and career.”  The Phillies outrighted De Fratus off their 40-man roster on Wednesday.  The righty was originally drafted by the Phils in the 11th round of the 2007 draft and he’d posted solid career numbers out of Philadelphia’s bullpen (3.08 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.27 K/BB rate over 114 IP) prior to this season.  Over 80 innings in 2015, De Fratus posted a 5.51 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.  Indicators such as xFIP and SIERA suggest that De Fratus was a bit unlucky to post that 5.51 ERA as he was hurt by a .335 BABIP and 66.2% strand rate.  De Fratus, who turns 28 later this month, is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and MLBTR projects him to earn a $700K salary in 2016.

Axisa On Qualifying Offer Candidates

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Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.

If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:

  • Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
  • Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
  • Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
  • Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”

AL East Notes: Wieters, Orioles, Yankees, Hendriks

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Only one World Series has ever ended on a caught stealing, and that rare event took place on this day in 1926.  The would-be base thief?  Of all people, it was Babe Ruth thrown out trying to steal second by Cardinals catcher Bob O’Farrell to end Game Seven and give the Cards their first World Series title.  This was one of a whopping five World Series-deciding games the Yankees have played on October 10 — they clinched victories in 1937, 1951 and 1956, and came up short in 1926 and 1957.

Here’s the latest from the AL East…

  • Will the Orioles issue a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Matt Wieters?  The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina and MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski each examine that question in separate pieces, as Wieters’ health status and underwhelming 2015 numbers could make $15.8MM too large a price tag for the O’s to potentially pay.  Wieters could take the QO in order to prove his value in 2016 and elevate his free agent stock for next offseason, though no player has yet accepted a qualifying offer (and it could be a particular surprise if a Scott Boras client like Wieters was the first to do so).  If Wieters did accept the QO, Encina notes that he’d be taking up budget room that could prevent Baltimore from re-signing Chris Davis or making another big free agent splash.  “Some in the industry believe the Orioles” are willing to go with a Caleb Joseph/Steve Clevenger catching tandem in 2016 rather than Wieters, Melewski writes, though in not making Wieters a QO, Baltimore would lose the chance at a first-round draft pick as compensation for Wieters signing elsewhere.
  • In another piece from Melewski, he cites Marco Estrada, Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy as possible fits for the Orioles this winter since it’s unclear as to whether the O’s will shop at the top of the free agent pitching market.
  • Brian Cashman will have to “get creative” to upgrade the Yankees given the number of big contracts already on the books, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes, such as how the GM added Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi last winter.  Feinsand also suggests four more ways for the Yankees to improve next year, such as deciding on who plays second base, finding playing time for Greg Bird, signing Justin Upton and staying away from David Price.
  • Liam Hendriks was a member of five different organizations between December 2013 and October 2014 but he has seemingly found some stability as an important member of the Blue Jays bullpen.  The Australian righty talks to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about his move to relief pitching, his increased velocity and the stress of switching teams so often within that 11-month span.

AL East Notes: Samardzija, Johnson, Kline

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The Yankees are likely to pursue righty Jeff Samardzija in free agency, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. He’s viewed by the organization as a competitor who could be had at a nice price given his forgettable 2015 campaign. Of course, the 30-year-old could see interest from a variety of other clubs for the same reasons. He’ll be one of the more interesting players to watch in free agency.

Here are few more AL East notes:

  • Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson made one big league start this year, but shortly after was shut down with elbow issues. But he’s back to throwing again, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports, and appears to be structurally sound. “They said my UCL [ulnar collateral ligament] was like I hadn’€™t even pitched,” Johnson said. “It was really, really good. It was nothing ligament-related.” The hope is that the 24-year-old will be ready for a normal spring. Given his strong results at Triple-A before the elbow difficulties arose, he remains an interesting near-future piece for a team that also has Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens showing promise early in their big league careers.
  • Another Orioles right-handed pitching prospect is dealing with early-career injury woes, as Branden Kline had Tommy John surgery yesterday, according to Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. A second-round draft pick in 2012, Kline missed much of the year as he attempted to avoid the procedure. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA over 39 1/3 Double-A innings on the year before being shut down.

AL Notes: Tigers, Rotation, Rondon, Gwynn, Bundy, Yanks

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Tigers GM Al Avila addressed the press today, and Chris Iott of MLive.com has the story (or, if you prefer, the video). We already touched upon his comments regarding the possibility of a J.D. Martinez extension. He also noted the importance of bolstering the pitching staff, saying that the “hope is to find two starting pitchers” — one toward the top of the staff and another back-end arm. The club will also consider newly-acquired youngsters Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and Michael Fulmer for starting jobs, along with the struggling Shane Greene — who could instead move to relief duty. Speaking of the pen, Avila noted that adding a lockdown closer would be “a tough task” given the paucity of 9th-inning arms on the market. He also noted that pitching was a greater priority than adding in the outfield, where the team feels good about youngster Tyler Collins. Though Avila didn’t reveal details, he said the cash would be there to make the additions that the team needs: “We’ll have a highly competitive payroll, as we have in the past.”

Here’s more from Detroit and the rest of the American League:

  • Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon took the closer job briefly but was ultimately sent home early for an apparent lack of effort. Avila says that the fireballer will need to prove that he is committed and capable, with the GM saying he’s “keeping my fingers crossed that the lesson was learned and he comes back ready to go.” One player who won’t be coming back is veteran infielder Josh Wilson, who has been told he’ll not be re-signed. And Avila said that long-time backstop Alex Avila — who is, of course, his son — is also expected to end up with a new organization.
  • Changes in the Mariners’ front office continued on Thursday, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported that director of player development Chris Gwynn has stepped down from his post (Twitter link). The Mariners have since confirmed Gwynn’s resignation, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that his expectation for the role to be filled by Angels assistant GM Scott Servais — a lieutenant of new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto when the two worked together in Anaheim.
  • Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy threw off a mound on Wednesday for the first time since shoulder troubles caused him to be shut down for the season in May, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina. Bundy, formerly rated as the No. 2 overall prospect in the game by both Baseball America and MLB.com, threw 20 pitches in the side session. Director of player development Brian Graham said that Bundy has no physical issues and showed good velocity. The team will decide if he’s to throw in winter ball or possibly the Arizona Fall League, but as Encina notes, getting him some work will be important. Bundy is out of minor league options and will have to stick on the Opening Day roster to avoid waivers next season, so getting him back into game shape carries extra importance for Baltimore.
  • The Yankees have quite a bit of work to do heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have much in the way of financial “wiggle room” to pursue the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke or Justin Upton, despite the fact that each player would fill a need for the club, Bloom opines. Perhaps chief among the Yankees’ needs will be to determine if age, injuries or simply general wear and tear contributed to the decline of Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran down the stretch, he adds.

 

AL East Notes: Rays, Hanley, Red Sox, Matusz

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The Yankees’ postseason didn’t last long, as the team fell, 3-0, to the Astros in tonight’s American League Wild Card game. Their focus will now shift to the offseason, but here are some notes on the other teams in the AL East that have already been plotting out their winter game plans…

  • The Rays are having conversations about payroll constraints, general manager Matthew Silverman told reporters, including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). As Silverman points out, the top 10 teams in the league averaged a payroll that was $100MM greater than the Rays’ 2015 mark of $75MM. Payroll restrictions typically prevent the Rays from significant free-agent expenditures, and they also prevent Tampa Bay from being able to hang onto many of their homegrown stars. A look at MLBTR’s arbitration projections shows that the Rays could have some tough calls on their hands this winter, as their 11 arb-eligible players project to earn a combined $28.9MM.
  • The Red Sox are asking Hanley Ramirez to drop 15 to 20 pounds this offseason, interim manager Torey Lovullo told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The organization feels that as an infielder, it’ll pay off to be more agile than was required in left field. Ramirez was listed at 225 pounds this season, though Lauber notes that he reported at 240 pounds — 10 pounds heavier than he was in 2014. While the Sox will likely make an effort to trade Ramirez his offseason, he’ll be penciled in at first base if he returns to the club in 2016.
  • Lauber’s colleague, Jason Mastrodonato, asks five critical questions for the Red Sox as they head into the offseason. Among them are whether or not Christian Vazquez will be able to throw right away next season (the young catcher had Tommy John surgery earlier this year), if Rusney Castillo’s bat will merit regular playing time and if the team can effectively develop starting pitching or if changes are needed.
  • Arthroscopic surgery on the right (non-throwing) shoulder of Orioles lefty Brian Matusz went as planned today, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Matusz said that the recovery process should take about a month, which should give him time to recover and have a typical offseason. Matusz is arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason and will be a free agent next winter.

Duquette, Showalter On Pitching, Davis, Machado, Harvey

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Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette and skipper Buck Showalter addressed the media together yesterday, as Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The pair is set to continue on for 2016, with Showalter explaining that both are committed to putting the club back in contention after a somewhat disappointing year.

Here are some more highlights;

  • Duquette talked about the club’s needs heading into the offseason, saying that “we need to focus on a stronger pitching staff.” As for whether the club can afford to upgrade its rotation and bring back slugger Chris Davis, he made no promises but left open the possibility: “I don’t know what the final market’s gonna be for Chris Davis, but having looked at some of the other contracts, it’s gonna be a lot of money. And we’re gonna have to weigh the competitiveness of the team and the need of the team to staff a strong pitching staff. I don’t know where the money’s going to end up, but we have enough resources in this market to field a competitive team and our aim is to do that again in ’16.”
  • Baltimore is assessing whether to make qualifying offers to Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, and Matt Wieters, per the report. “The qualifying offer is under consideration for all those players,” Duquette said. “The club has to decide that by the end of the World Series, so we’re currently working on that.” It still seems probable that all three will be recipients, though the backstop Wieters seems most likely to avoid the QO.
  • In terms of pursuing offensive additions, Duquette said the focus would be in acquiring players with good on-base skills.
  • While the Orioles would love to extend third baseman Manny Machado, Duquette says that pursuing a new deal with him is not atop the organization’s priority list, as Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. “It is heartening that Manny wants to play here, we’ve got him for three more years and that’s something we can consider in the offseason but I’ve got to tell you, we got a lot more work to do,” Duquette said. “We’ve got a lot more work to do and the fact that Manny’s gonna be here for the next three years under his current arrangement, doesn’t mean that’s a back-burner item, but we have a lot more urgent things to look at.”
  • Duquette also noted that he has had discussions with Machado’s reps in the past, but said that they “didn’t quite get to a deal.” It was wise of the O’s to try, because Machado’s combination of performance and age figure to make him exceedingly expensive to lock up, even after accounting for his somewhat worrying injury history.
  • Meanwhile, Duquette said that highly-regarded pitching prospect Hunter Harvey will not require surgery, at least for the time being. “The doctors are recommending based upon the healing they’ve seen, they’re recommending he continue to pitch,” said the club’s top baseball decisionmaker. “If he does throw four to six weeks from now and still has an issue, we can do the surgery then. But we’ve sent him to see several doctors and they’re all recommending he continue to throw.”

Orioles’ Owner: Duquette, Showalter Will “Absolutely” Return In 2016

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Though there’s been some reported tension in the Baltimore front office, Orioles owner Peter Angelos was as direct as possible when asked by MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko whether each would return in 2016. “Absolutely, yes,” Angelos replied. The owner went on to say that he would “probably urge them to sign for additional years” once their current contracts, which run through 2018, expire.

Additionally, Angelos stated that his intention is to re-sign first baseman Chris Davis — the highest profile among the six free agents that the Orioles stand to lose. (The others are Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Gerardo Parra and Steve Pearce.) With a .262/.361/.562 batting line, 47 homers and solid first base defense (to say nothing of the versatility to fill in at a corner outfield position or third base, if needed), Davis has positioned himself as the free-agent market’s premier power threat and will command a contract well in excess of $100MM.

That type of spending has previously been out of Angelos’ comfort zone, as the Orioles have typically operated with a mid-range payroll and have never spent more than $85.5MM on a single contract (Adam Jones holds their current record). Last night, Duquette voiced a similar hope of retaining Davis, though he cautiously noted that the Orioles would be able to sign a contract that has a “semblance of reason” to it.

Kubatko also notes that Duquette and Showalter hope to retain the entirety of the coaching staff for the 2016 campaign, but that’s far from certain at this juncture. Specifically, he writes that pitching coach Dave Wallace has received some interest from other clubs.

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