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Orioles Rumors

Orioles Extend Duquette, Showalter

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 16, 2013 at 4:32pm CDT

Fresh off of their first playoff appearance in 15 years, the Orioles have decided to keep their leadership structure in place for the foreseeable future. The team announced extensions for manager Buck Showalter and executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette through the 2018 season.

Showalter led the Orioles to a 93-69 record this past season. The club defeated the Rangers in a Wild Card play-in game before losing to the Yankees in the Division Series. The 56-year-old finished second to A's manager Bob Melvin in the 2012 American League Manager of the Year voting. Now entering his fourth season with Baltimore, Showalter has a record of 1078-1018 in 14 seasons managing at the MLB level.

Duquette has made a number of significant moves in the year-plus since becoming the club's top baseball executive, as MLBTR's Transaction Tracker shows. He traded for Jason Hammel, Jim Thome and Joe Saunders, signed Wei-Yin Chen and Nate McLouth and extended Adam Jones, for example.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Dan Duquette

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Orioles Closing In On Showalter Extension

By Zachary Links | January 16, 2013 at 2:29pm CDT

The Orioles hope to announce a contract extension for manager Buck Showalter this week and it could come as early as tomorrow morning, according to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun.  It's not yet known when the deal will become official but the two sides have been confident for weeks that it would all get hammered out.

Showalter's current contract has just one season remaining and the new deal is expected to take him through at least the 2017 season.  That would make it longer than the three-year deal the skipper signed in August 2010.

Baltimore surprised the baseball world under Showalter's leadership in 2012, clinching their first postseason birth since 1997 with a 93-69 record.

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Baltimore Orioles

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Arbitration Breakdown: Jim Johnson

By Matt Swartz | January 16, 2013 at 1:20pm CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

After shuffling between different relief roles for a few years, Jim Johnson emerged in 2012 as the Orioles' full-time closer. He saved a league-best 51 games in just 54 chances as he helped the Orioles make the playoffs for the first time in the 21st century. The Orioles relied on him heavily, winning the AL Wild Card in large part due to their 29-9 record in one-run games, a feat in which Johnson played a large part. Johnson hurled 68 2/3 innings for the Orioles, keeping his ERA low at 2.49 to go along with his hefty save total.

The Orioles are about to be reminded that that type of performance doesn’t come for free, as the Moye Sports Associates client is likely to get a substantial raise on his $2.625MM salary from 2012. My arbitration model projects Johnson to get a $4.275MM raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility, all the way up to $6.9MM. This would be uncharted territory — other than first-year eligible players, no reliever has ever gotten a raise larger than $3.5MM. While I suspect that Johnson may fall a little bit short of the model’s estimated $6.9MM salary, I think he will probably break the $3.5MM record.

Projecting closers’ arbitration salaries is not as hard as for many other types of players. Pitchers with at least 20 saves in their second, third, or fourth year of arbitration got raises ranging from $1.375-3.5MM over the last six years (2007-12) and a good rule of thumb is that the more saves a closer has, the bigger his raise will be. Other statistics matter far less; arbitration cases are very much about whether you got your individual job done, and the closer’s role is seen as saving games. More opportunities means more money — avoiding blown saves (which Johnson happened to do) is not as important as racking up save totals when called upon.

Pitchers who had at least 20 but fewer than 35 saves received raises between $1.375-1.925MM, pitchers who had at least 35 but fewer than 40 saves receives raises between $2.0-3.1MM, and pitchers who had at least 40 saves received raises between $2.7-3.5MM. The relationship between saves totals and raises is clear — other statistics mattered far less. Considering that the maximum number of saves of any of these closers was 47, it makes perfect sense that Johnson should expect to break Heath Bell’s record raise of $3.5MM in 2011 in Johnson’s third year of eligibility and with four more saves than Bell.

There have been three pitchers in the last six years to have at least 40 saves and get one-year contracts in their third year of arbitration eligibility, and all three of them received similar raises and will be the presumed comparables for Johnson’s case. After saving 40 games in 2007, Francisco Rodriguez got a $2.95MM raise; after saving 44 games in 2008, Jose Valverde got a $3.3MM raise; and after saving 47 games in 2010, Heath Bell got a $3.5MM raise. All three of them had a similar number of innings as Johnson had in 2012, with Johnson pitching through 68 2/3, Rodriguez throwing 67 1/3, Valverde with 72, and Bell with 70. Johnson’s 2.49 ERA topped Rodriguez’s 2.81 and Valverde’s 3.38, but fell short of Bell’s 1.93.

Since both Valverde’s and Rodriguez’s raises are less recent, Bell seems like a much better comparable, and given that his case took place two years ago and his saves total was smaller than Johnson’s, it is hard to imagine that that Johnson will fail to top Bell’s $3.5MM raise. Adding in two extra years of salary inflation and four extra saves, I think that Johnson should expect a raise of about $4MM. While my model thinks this will go all the way up to $4.275MM raise (and hence a $6.9MM salary), I think it might be hard to push for $775K more than Bell got. Johnson should still safely end up with over $6.5MM in 2013.

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Arbitration Breakdown Baltimore Orioles Jim Johnson

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AL East Notes: Rays, Blue Jays, Johnson

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 15, 2013 at 2:36pm CDT

Links from the only division in baseball that featured three 90-win teams in 2012…

  • Rays executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said he’s still looking to add a bat and, potentially, a reliever, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (on Twitter). The Rays could also settle some arbitration cases before Friday’s deadline for exchanging figures with eligible players.
  • The Blue Jays seek a reliever for the back end of their bullpen, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (Twitter link). Heyman suggests setup relievers such as free agents Francisco Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Matt Capps, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Jose Valverde and Kyle Farnsworth could be fits.
  • The Orioles aren’t interested in trading J.J. Hardy to the Tigers for Rick Porcello, but Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports wonders if Baltimore would consider dealing closer Jim Johnson to acquire the 24-year-old ground ball pitcher.
  • The Yankees were "fired up" to hear that they're on track get a compensatory draft pick for losing Rafael Soriano to the Nationals, ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports (on Twitter).
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Baltimore Orioles Detroit Tigers New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays J.J. Hardy Jim Johnson Rafael Soriano Rick Porcello

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Arbitration Breakdown: Matt Wieters

By Matt Swartz | January 15, 2013 at 9:20am CDT

Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors (read more about it here), but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

After missing the “super two” cutoff of arbitration eligibility by just ten days in 2012, Matt Wieters has finally reached arbitration eligibility in 2013 with three years and 129 days of service time. My arbitration model projects the seasoned catcher to obtain a $4.6MM salary, a potential record for first-time eligible catchers. Due to his durability and his hefty experience for a first-time player, Wieters will probably get close to the model’s projection, though I suspect he will fall short of it.

There have been only 34 catchers who have reached arbitration eligibility for the first time in the last six years, and five them received multiyear deals which make them weak comparisons. Of the remaining 29, only five had at least 400 plate appearances in their platform seasons and only one had at least 470. Wieters had a whopping total of 593 plate appearances in 2012, topped only by Russell Martin’s 650 in 2009.

Wieters, a Boras Corporation client, hit only .249 this past season, but he did hit 23 home runs and he knocked in 83 RBI. Going into 2012, he had already accumulated a total of 1,438 plate appearances and had hit .264 to go along with 42 home runs and 166 RBI. Only a handful of catchers have entered arbitration with that kind of track record. Considering the importance of playing time to arbitration models, it will probably help his case considerably that Wieters is the only player other than Victor Martinez in the last six years to accumulate 2,000 plate appearances from behind the plate before his first year of arbitration eligibility — and Martinez was already playing on a multiyear deal by the time he would have been eligibile.

In fact, most of the catchers who had numbers like Wieters' before reaching arbitration received multiyear deals before they even became eligible. Martinez in 2007, Brian McCann in 2009, and Kurt Suzuki in 2011 would have been reasonable comparables for Wieters, except that all three received multiyear deals a full year or more before reaching eligibility. This makes it especially hard to find good comparables. Plus, catchers are generally isolated from other position players in arbitration.

Usually multiyear deals are not considered when looking for comparables, even players who signed multiyear deals while negotiating for one-year deals. However, if figures were exchanged, exceptions can be made. Due to the lack of comparables other than aforementioned Martin (who I will discuss more shortly), Joe Mauer could be a reasonable comparable for Wieters. He signed a multiyear deal which paid him $3.75MM in 2007, his first year of eligibility, but he had exchanged figures of $3.3MM and $4.5MM with the Twins before that deal was signed. Even though Wieters may not have the value that Mauer had at this time, his extra power would probably have made his arbitration case more compelling despite his batting average deficiencies. Wieters had 23 home runs and 83 RBI in his platform season, while Mauer only had 13 home runs and 84 RBI. Going into this season, Wieters had 42 home runs and 166 RBI, while Mauer had just 15 home runs and 72 RBI. Of course Wieters had just a .264 average going into his platform season in which he hit .249, and Mauer had a .297 average going in to his platform season and then hit .347. However, power matters more, and the fact that Wieters had 1,438 pre-platform plate appearances and Mauer only had 676 would make Wieters' case far stronger. While Mauer’s request of $4.5MM might not necessarily help Wieters, given that neither the Twins nor an arbitration panel gave him that sum, there is a case that Wieters should get well in excess of the $3.3MM that the Twins offered and probably more than the $3.75MM he ultimately received in his multiyear deal.

Other than Mauer, Russell Martin’s $3.9MM in 2009 stands alone as the best comparable. Martin did have 650 plate appearances, more than Wieters’ 593, and his .280 average exceeded Wieters’ .249. However, he only hit 13 home runs to Wieters’ 23. Martin also had fewer pre-platform plate appearances (1,088 vs. 1,438) since he was eligible as a super two, and he only had 29 home runs and 152 RBI before his platform years, which fall short of Wieters’ 42 home runs and 166 RBI. On the other hand, Martin had 49 career steals by the time he reached arbitration and Wieters has only four. Martin’s case is four years old and that he had less power than Wieters, so I expect Wieters should be able to argue for more than Martin’s $3.9MM and safely break $4MM.

Interestingly, there are almost no other cases that are even close to a match for Wieters. In fact, only Geovany Soto even topped $2.2MM and he only got $3MM after accumulating just 387 plate appearances in 2010. His weaker 17 home runs and 53 RBI (though with a superior .280 average) would make a weak comparable if the Orioles tried to argue to keep Wieters down in the in the $3MM range.

Overall, it’s hard to imagine Wieters getting much less than $4MM and he will probably get more. My projection of $4.6MM would set a new precedent by a considerable margin, so I think he will fall short. Even so, he will probably get relatively close to the projected amount.

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Arbitration Breakdown Baltimore Orioles Matt Wieters

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International Moves: Dodgers, Liberato, Villatoro

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 14, 2013 at 9:29pm CDT

We’ll keep track of the day’s international signings here…

  • The Dodgers announced the signings of four 17-year-olds from the Dominican Republic (via Twitter): outfielders Deivy Castillo and Ariel Sandoval, shortstop Ravel Hernandez, and right-hander Miguel Urena. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweeted the age and positions of each player.
  • The Mariners signed Luis Liberato, a 17-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. Liberato obtains a $140K bonus. The 6'1" teenager has gap power with a solid swing and could stay in center field or move to right, according to Badler.
  • The Blue Jays signed 18-year-old right-hander Denis Villatoro to a five-year contract, Saúl Carranza of the Honduran newspaper Diez reported over the weekend (translation via MLBTR's Nick Collias). It's a five-year deal, according to La Tribuna. Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun notes that it's worth $20K (Twitter link). Villatoro, who worked out for the Blue Jays before signing, said he's "very happy" to have agreed to terms with Toronto, Carranza reports. His fastball reaches 93 mph, and he also drew interest from the Orioles, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Giants and Pirates.
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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros International Free Agents Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Toronto Blue Jays Transactions

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Quick Hits: Giants, Byrd, Reyes, Jurrjens

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 14, 2013 at 4:31pm CDT

As arbitration eligible players around MLB agree to terms with their respective teams, be sure to use MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. The tool allows users to search in many ways, including by team and by service time. Here are the latest links from around MLB…

  • The Giants' multiyear deals with Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro are among five free agent contracts that could backfire, ESPN.com's Jim Bowden writes.
  • The Giants would offer Brian Wilson a big league contract, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (on Twitter). The Mets are also in on Wilson, who was non-tendered by San Francisco at the end of November.
  • Doug Lara, Marlon Byrd's personal hitting coach, told Puro Beisbol last week that the outfielder is in discussions with the Marlins. Byrd has been playing for the Tomateros de Culiacán this winter (translation via Nick Collias). 
  • Dennys Reyes told Puro Beisbol that he has offers from the Dodgers, Orioles, and Blue Jays. Among the three, Reyes said, "I'd like to return to the Dodgers," the team he debuted with as 20-year-old in 1997 (translation via Nick Collias). 
  • Free agent right-hander Jair Jurrjens told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he feels good physically and has begun throwing bullpens (Twitter link).
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Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Brian Wilson Dennys Reyes Jair Jurrjens Marlon Byrd

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Orioles, Brian Matusz Nearing Deal

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 14, 2013 at 2:07pm CDT

The Orioles are nearing a deal with arbitration eligible left-hander Brian Matusz, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports (on Twitter). The Orioles have yet to complete a deal with the Excel Sports Management client.

Matusz, 25, is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason following a year in which he posted a 4.87 ERA in 98 innings as a starter and reliever. The super two player had a projected $1MM salary, Matt Swartz anticipated for MLBTR.

Matusz is one of Baltimore's seven remaining arb eligible players, as MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows. Chris Davis, Jason Hammel, Jim Johnson, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton and Matt Wieters are the others.

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Baltimore Orioles Brian Matusz

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Orioles, Tommy Hunter Avoid Arbitration

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | January 14, 2013 at 2:05pm CDT

The Orioles announced that they've avoided arbitration with right-hander Tommy Hunter (Twitter link). The sides agreed to a one-year contract worth $1.82MM, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter).

Hunter, 26, had been arbitration eligible for the first time. The Moye Sports Associates client posted a 5.45 ERA in 133 2/3 innings as a starter and reliever for Baltimore in 2012. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz correctly ancipated that Hunter's salary would fall in the $1.8MM range.

Baltimore has seven remaining arb eligible players, as MLBTR's Arbitration Tracker shows: Chris Davis, Jason Hammel, Jim Johnson, Brian Matusz, Darren O'Day, Troy Patton and Matt Wieters. The Orioles are nearing a deal with Matusz.

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Baltimore Orioles Transactions Tommy Hunter

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Quick Hits: Blum, Webb, Orioles, Padres

By Daniel Seco 2 | January 13, 2013 at 11:12pm CDT

Utility infielder Geoff Blum's ready to call it a playing career after 14 seasons in the big leagues, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. After spending five years with the Astros over two different stints, Blum will return to Houston to join the club's television broadcasting team on a part-time basis. Here's the latest news and headlines from around the league…

  • The Rockies remain interested in former Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, who plans to set a date to throw in front of teams in the near future, reports the Denver Post's Troy Renck (via Twitter). Webb, 34 this spring, last appeared in the big leagues in April 2009.
  • The Orioles have a few free agents for other teams to consider ranging from a sure-fire Hall of Famer to a utility infielder who will most likely use Twitter to announce his next stop, says Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  
  • The offseason doesn't always mean vacations or relaxing poolside for younger players in the Padres organization as the salary of a minor leaguer often fails to cover the bills, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. 
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Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Houston Astros San Diego Padres Brandon Webb Geoff Blum

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