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MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne

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Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne.  30 years old.  An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings.  Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter!  Roto Immortality.)  Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer.  A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007. 

With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option.  Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it.  The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster.  No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count.  Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season.  But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.

So which contending teams have questionable closers? 

Red Sox.  I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate.  He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then.  The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace.  Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree.  Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.   

White Sox.  Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now.  With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne.  His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time. 

Rangers.  Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.

Braves.  This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.   

Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon’s elbow gives out?  The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.

This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.

Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.      

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Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo

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It’s official:  the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena.  This is an intriguing trade.

The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo.  It’s unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation.  Eric Milton is terrible but well paid.  Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won’t have to sort things out until he returns.

So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings.  This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he’s a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder.  Not a great mix. 

You’d have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox.  This is one case where a player should’ve listened to his agents.

Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena.  Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him.  Here’s a look at some projections for Pena.  I know he’s touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs.  For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn’t platooned.

Red Sox After Craig Wilson?

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Sometimes all it takes is an educated guess to put two and two together.  Hell, maybe Theo and Dave got the idea from this site yesterday – sort of a GM matchmaker (alright, that’s wishful thinking).  But it’s always interesting when speculation turns to real trade talks.

Yesterday I mentioned:

"If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them."

Then today in Rob Rossi’s article for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, he revealed that the Pirates are trying to trade Wilson for a starter, possibly Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo.  For the Bucs, I like the idea.  Sure, their offense could use a guy like Wilson, but if they must discard him they should at least solidify the rotation. 

A Pittsburgh rotation of Clement/Duke/Perez/Maholm/Snell has a chance to be quite impressive.  It might be five guys with ERAs hovering around 4, but that’s actually hard to find when the average NL starter has a 4.22 ERA.

The Red Sox seem to be anticipating an injury for Trot Nixon or a failure by Mike Lowell, and expecting at least one of the two is the safe play.  The club needs a player like Wilson, who can handle both right field and first base and has an .851 career OPS.

Assuming the White Sox plan to hold on to Jose Contreras, I think they might have it right.  That is, there’s nothing wrong with an overload of starting pitchers.  The White Sox shouldn’t expect their front five to be completely healthy and effective once again.  Similarly, the Red Sox don’t necessarily have a surplus with Arroyo/Beckett/Clement/Papelbon/Schilling/Wakefield/Wells all capable of starting.  Yes, that’s seven pitchers, but three of them are injury risks and Papelbon is unproven.

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Astros/Red Sox Deal Cooking?

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Buster Olney tosses a little trade rumor nugget out in today’s blog:

"By the way: the Red Sox had multiple scouts tracking the Houston Astros on Thursday, at a time when the Astros are looking for a starter (Matt Clement? Wells? Arroyo?)"

Let’s see here…what might the Red Sox want in return?  Jason Lane to replace Trot Nixon?  Seems that if the Sox need anything, it’s a corner infielder in the event Mike Lowell doesn’t pan out.  I can’t really find a good match just perusing the Major League rosters.  Perhaps a three-team deal is in the works or it’s something more minor. 

If the Pirates want Arroyo back, Craig Wilson would be a decent fit given that Youkilis can play third…the Pirates have two vacancies in their rotation but a host of candidates to fill them.

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Cubs Interested In Juan Gonzalez

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Now that it’s February 20th, the trade and signing rumors aren’t flowing as freely as they used to.  Occasionally we have to go to great lengths to dig up mildly intriguing rumors.  By great lengths I mean I had to bust out my high school Spanish textbook.

El Nuevo Dia is a Puerto Rican newspaper.  Yesterday, Hiram Alberto Torraca had an exclusive interview with former MVP Juan Gonzalez.  Gonzalez was last seen with the Indians, amassing a single at-bat before straining his hamstring.  If you want to register and can read Spanish, you can view the article here.  For the rest of you, allow me to do my best to give you the gist of it.

According to Gonzalez, the Cubs sent Carmelo Martinez to Puerto Rico to watch him swing the bat and run the bases.  [Note – Martinez is the hitting coach for the Cubs’ rookie ball affiliate, as far as I can tell.]  The Cubs have yet to make an offer to Gonzalez because they wanted to observe him first.

Gonzalez has been practicing daily and says that the Red Sox and White Sox have also shown interest in him.  Juan Gone’s thoughts on playing in the National League for the first time in his career:

"If I have to go the National League, I will do it.  With that there is no problem.  I am in the best condition of my life."

According to Gonzalez, Indians GM Mark Shapiro had promised a minor league invite for 2006 but didn’t keep his word.  On the subject of money, Gonzalez had this to say:

"At this time, money does not matter to me.  What I want is to play and to achieve some goals.  If no contract is offered I will be tranquil and happy because I arrived at where wanted and I achieved many things."

It’s anticipated that Gonzalez will see some time in the World Baseball Classic, although he has yet to be added officially to Puerto Rico’s 30 man roster.

Gonzalez was last relevant in baseball in 2003, when he hit .294/.329/.572 for the Rangers in 327 ABs.  It seems that teams continue to be tantalized by Gonzalez’s power even as he enters his age 36 season with a recent record of poor health.  Gonzalez has mashed lefties throughout his career, and would make an intriguing platoon partner for Jacque Jones to say the least.

Tejada Could Still Be Dealt By April

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We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down.  He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things.  However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.

In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types.  According to Rozner:

"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."

He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline.  As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.

New Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez can still be cut by March 15th, in which case Boston would owe him $500,000.  The Cubs seem quite likely to give Ronny Cedeno his shot, though he’d probably be part of any package for Tejada.

The White Sox have previously offered Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and a prospect for Tejada, but the clubs could not agree on the last prospect.  Recent word is that the team plans to wait until after the World Baseball Classic before trading Contreras.  Houston has some top-notch pitching prospects in the fold, so look for them to re-enter the fray once the Clemens saga is resolved.   

Latest Roger Clemens Buzz

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This might be an example of Red Sox fans reaching for any indication that Roger Clemens is likely to sign with their team.  But there was an interesting piece of info yesterday over at BornIntoIt.com:

"With Al Nipper now assuming the duties of interim pitching coach, it brings up an interesting scenario. When he pitched for the Sox in the mid-1980s, one of his best buddies on the team was Roger Clemens. Nipper has maintained a close friendship with Clemens since he left the Red Sox in 1996. With Clemens now a free agent, could this be an incentive for a possible Clemens return to Fenway?"

This same concept appeared two months ago alongside the possibility of the Red Sox signing Brad Ausmus to lure Clemens.  Also, according to Gordon Edes’s article from a few days ago, John Flaherty has experience catching Roger.  So it seems that he could fill the personal catcher role to some extent.  The only problem with this concept is that Flaherty is already expected to be Tim Wakefield’s catcher, and the Red Sox would probably not want him behind the plate 40% of the time given his anemic bat.  I’m sure they could work something out though. 

Clemens’s agent Randy Hendricks finally commented via email to the New York Times yesterday:

"I continue to say that nothing will be decided until after the World Baseball Classic," the agent, Randy Hendricks, said in an e-mail message. "It is a five-horse race between Retirement, Boston, Houston (post May 1), New York, and Texas (alphabetical order except for the lead horse, named Retirement)." 

Red Sox To Pursue Clemens

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The Boston Herald’s Gerry Callahan reported today that the Red Sox "as we speak are preparing to make a serious offer to one Roger Clemens."  Not so coincidentally, it’s a slow news day, with the Phillies’ hot pursuit of the other Alex Gonzalez a top story.

Apparently the Red Sox know Clemens won’t be lured by money (he’s made over $120MM in salary in his career) so they are going a different route:

"The Sox’ pitch will include a slick video presentation that features a number of Red Sox fans imploring the Rocket to finish his career where it began.  This is not a Theo idea or a Larry idea; it comes straight from chairman Tom Werner, the Hollywood producer who is making sure the Sox’ sales pitch is Oscar quality. They may not land the Rocket, but Werner is demanding they give it their best shot."

Do Boston fans really want Clemens back?  I should put up a poll or something.  Regardless, every source I’ve ever spoken to about this insists that Clemens’s options are the Astros and retirement.  Roger’s personal catcher is there and the team is bending over backwards to accomodate him.  As I said in December, an undeserved promotion of Koby Clemens to Double A might seal the deal.  While Koby plays in the Astros’ farm system, his Class A team resides in New York.

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Angels Sign Weaver?

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I’m not entirely familiar with the Halos Heaven blog quite yet, but the author is saying Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels is a done deal.  In their words: "the ink is dry."

Also, check out the latest Manny rumor in the same post.  While not quite the polar opposite of supposed offer that heavily favored the Red Sox, this one would definitely be a win for Los Angeles.  But if the Angels were willing to take on Manny’s entire contract, an offer of Escobar, Shell, and Rivera plus one top Angels prospect seems equitable.

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