2004 Draft Throwdown
Now that six years have passed since the 2004 draft, let's take a look at a few of the choices teams made between prospects at the same position to get a sense of who came out ahead in the great pick-by-pick spin of fate.
- Justin Verlander (Tigers) vs. Phil Humber (Mets) vs. Jeff Niemann (Rays): Here we have a textbook study in the perils of pitching prospects. In Verlander, the second overall pick, the Tigers got a true ace. He has posted three top-seven finishes in the Cy Young voting already, and struck out an incredible 269 batters in 240 innings last year. Picking third, the Mets got an ace as well, sort of: Humber was eventually traded in the deal that landed them Johan Santana. Needless to say, Humber has not been an ace himself, pitching to an ERA over 5.00 at Triple-A for a second straight year in 2010. Niemann, meanwhile, has profiled somewhere in-between, though his 2010 so far suggests he may be fulfilling the promise of his status as fourth overall pick. He's pitching to a 2.83 ERA in 2010, though the strikeout rate (just 5.8 per nine innings) suggests that ERA will likely rise. Overall winner here? Everyone except the Twins.
- Billy Butler (Royals) vs. Josh Fields (White Sox): Well, it certainly appears the Royals got the better of this battle of third basemen. Butler, picked 14th, didn't stick at third, but he is finally getting some attention as a legitimately excellent bat, putting up a .341/.396/.494 line in 2010 so far. Meanwhile, Fields, picked 18th, has struggled to remain on the field, and is actually now property of the Royals as well, coming over this winter in the deal for Mark Teahen. But he will miss most, if not all, of the 2010 season after having hip surgery in April. Fields, 28 in December, has had some impressive Triple-A seasons, so he may eventually fulfill his promise. Butler, however, is clearly here to stay. Overall winner? The Royals. Almost makes up for Alex Gordon!
- Glen Perkins (Twins) vs. Phil Hughes (Yankees): Lost in the many months of Johan Santana trade talks back in 2007-2008, which centered around whether the Yankees would deal Phil Hughes, was the realization that the Twins could have drafted Hughes themselves. Instead, at pick 22, Minnesota took Glen Perkins, a college product out of University of Minnesota. The outlook isn't brilliant for Perkins at this point, with a 7.76 ERA in Triple-A, though his strikeout rate is at least relatively strong. Meanwhile, Phil Hughes has become one of the best pitchers in the American League, with a fantastic 74 strikeouts and 22 walks in 75.1 innings in support of his 3.11 ERA. Hughes won't be 24 until later this month. And among those who won't be celebrating his birthday? The Twins.
Amateur Draft Signings: Tuesday
We'll probably have to wait a little while for Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Jameson Taillon to sign, but teams have agreed to deals with some of the players selected later on in the draft. The players listed below signed today. Click here for the list of picks to sign yesterday and here for the updated list of first rounders to sign:
- The Rangers signed four picks, reports ESPNDallas.com, including third-rounder Jordan Akins and fourth-rounder Drew Robinson.
- As reported earlier, Toronto signed 14 picks, including supplemental rounders Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.
- Thirteenth-rounder Robby Price is the highest-drafted of the five Rays picks who signed today, reports Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
- Eight more Orioles picks have signed, says Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Riley Hornback (12th round) is the highest selected of the new signees.
- The Brewers have signed fourth-rounder Hunter Morris and two other draft picks, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- LoHud.com's Chad Jennings reports that the Yankees have signed 13 picks, with eight-rounder Kyle Roller the highest-drafted of the bunch.
- The Padres signed second rounder Jedd Gyorko and fourth rounder Chris Bisson pending physicals, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter).
- The Royals signed seven more draft picks, including eighth rounder Michael Mariot.
- The Pirates signed six late round selections, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post.
Odds & Ends: Angels, Brewers, Gordon, Romero
Some links to check out while we wait to see if Jon Garland can help the Padres extend their lead in the NL West…
- Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com reports that the Angels may take their time in trading for a first baseman, both to save money and to determine if they need to make a big pickup.
- Brewers' first-round pick Dylan Covey is looking for a $2MM signing bonus, which Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes is about $300K higher than MLB's slotted bonus price for a 14th overall selection.
- Haudricourt also reports that Milwaukee's first two picks from the 2009 Amateur Draft (26th overall right-hander Eric Arnett and 39th overall outfielder Kentrail Davis) have both been sent down a level. Arnett posted a 6.87 ERA in 12 starts at the low-A level and is moving down to rookie ball, while Davis goes from high-A to low-A.
- Royals manager Ned Yost tells MLB.com's Dick Kaegel that in spite of Alex Gordon's success at Triple-A, Gordon won't be called back up to the majors until Kansas City can find an everyday space for him.
- Five teams have an interest in outfielder Wilmer Romero in advance of the international signing period opening on July 2, tweets Melissa Segura of Sports Illustrated.
- Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette thinks the Pirates could spend around $10.5MM to sign their draft class since they "need, and want, to flood…their system with talent."
- The already pitching-rich Braves have "the most talented rotation in the minors" at Advanced-A Myrtle Beach, according to Fangraphs' Marc Hulet.
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson sees Washington pursuing a pitcher and a hitter at the trade deadline, and answers a number of hot stove-related questions in a fan mailbag.
- Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times says that the Dodgers haven't made any progress towards acquiring Cliff Lee and are balking at the money left on Roy Oswalt's contract.
- Meanwhile, Bill Shaikin of The Los Angeles Times says the Angels could have Paul Konerko today, if they wanted. He adds that if they do make a trade, they might be better off targeting a third baseman.
- A Mets' official indicated that the team won't discuss an extension with Rod Barajas until after the season, tweets Newsday's David Lennon.
- Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe tweets that Ted Lilly was "begging" the Yankees to sign him before the 2007, but they went for Kei Igawa instead.
- Paul Hagen of The Philadelphia Daily News says the Phillies shouldn't expect a trade deadline boost this year because of a depleted farm system beyond Domonic Brown and close to $140MM in salary commitments for 2011.
- Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle says it might not be until July that the Astros decide to "blow up the roster and start over."
- Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports looks at nine starting pitchers who will be on the market this summer, led by Lee.
Heyman’s Latest: Lee, Oswalt, White Sox, Nady
Jon Heyman has a new column up at SI.com, so let's dive on in…
- Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt are the two big name pitchers available on the trade market, but their value is very different because of the money owed to them. "At the end of the day," says one AL exec, "I don't think Houston will be able to move the entire (Oswalt) contract and get premium players back."
- Another AL executive noted that Lee has proven that he can be successful in the American League and will fetch two draft picks at the end of the season.
- The Red Sox turned down a straight up Lee for Clay Buchholz offer last year.
- The Yankees are happy with their rotation at the moment, but they plan on putting in a call in the coming days just in case they are "pleasantly surprised" by Seattle's asking price. Oswalt, meanwhile, isn't even on their radar.
- Some wonder if the Dodgers are saving money for a big score, but GM Ned Colletti will be hard pressed to acquire either Lee or Oswalt without ownership approval.
- The Cardinals might not be willing to take on Oswalt's deal with Albert Pujols' free agency rapidly approaching.
- The Mets might not want to give up the prospects to acquire another frontline pitcher, though the Rangers would be able to work Lee's salary into the budget.
- Heyman also goes through and offers some opinion on other teams that could use one of the two aces, including the Reds, Phillies, and Angels.
- Kenny Williams would like to fire Ozzie Guillen according to one person close to the team, but owner Jerry Reinsdorf is too loyal to let it happen.
- A trade of Xavier Nady to open up the Cubs' outfield logjam seems likely.
Odds & Ends: Lee, Rockies, Orioles, Matthews
Some links for Saturday night as we take in some night games..
- Yankees special assistant and former Padres GM Kevin Towers was at Petco Park tonight with Cliff Lee pitching, tweets Corey Brock of MLB.com. However, Brock points out that Towers still lives in San Diego.
- The Rockies have agreed to terms with 11 draft picks, according to Steve Foster of Inside The Rockies. Three of their top ten selections are now in the fold as well as 22nd round pick Mark Tracy, son of manager Jim Tracy.
- Jon Heyman of SI (via Twitter) wonders aloud if Bobby Valentine will want to manage the O's if he's watching them play.
- A major league source told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Angels and Red Sox agreed to swap Mike Lowell for Gary Matthews Jr. last December. However, the Angels changed their minds over concerns about Lowell's thumb.
- After a breakout season in 2009, Wandy Rodriguez is struggling mightily in 2010, writes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. McTaggart writes that if Rodriguez is unable to rebound, the Astros may have to consider his future with the club after this season.
- O's GM Andy MacPhail says that the club may not finish its managerial search before the end of this season, writes Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun. Baltimore has interviewed Bobby Valentine and ex-Indians skipper Eric Wedge thus far.
- Brandon Webb could be valuable trade bait for the D'Backs if he returns healthy, writes USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
Odds & Ends: Nava, Yankees, Astros, Lowell, Giants
Links for Saturday….
- The Red Sox initially bought the rights to Daniel Nava for what Randolph and Mortimer Duke would refer to as the "usual amount", writes Alex Speier of WEEI. Earlier at Fenway, Nava hit a grand slam on his very first major league pitch.
- Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star provides us with a breakdown of the Royals' performance thus far under Ned Yost.
- Bryan Smith of Fangraphs examined the top hurlers in the 2011 MLB Draft.
- Look for the Yankees to have smooth negotiations with first round pick Cito Culver, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network. The Yanks can't officially sign the 32nd overall selection until he graduates on June 20th.
- The Astros signed three more draft picks today, per a team release. They've now signed 19 of their selections, including 11 of the 22 players they drafted in the first 20 rounds.
- ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider-only link) says there's "no bubbling, hot market right now for Mike Lowell." The teams who are interested in Lowell are hoping the Red Sox will give him away and eat his salary.
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe argues that Lowell still has value. Raul Ibanez, a friend of Lowell's, agrees that the 36-year-old's bat has some pop left, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle thinks the Giants are just one slugger away from World Series contention.
- Addressing his team's bullpen struggles, Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest said he hoped the organization's current players could turn things around, but didn't rule out a trade. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald has the details.
- Fanhouse's John Hickey says that Mike Hargrove would be interested in managing the Orioles, though it's not known if that interest is mutual.
- The Dodgers signed four of their draft picks, including fifth-rounder Jacob Lemmerman, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick and Evan Drellich.
- In a video for FOX Sports, Jim Bowden gives his opinion on the winners and losers of the draft. He names the Nationals, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays as clubs that made out well.
- Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Box Score takes a look at which teams are paying the most money to players no longer on their rosters.
Roy Oswalt Rumors: Saturday
Even though there are reportedly no current trade talks involving Roy Oswalt, rumors continue to swirl around the Astros' ace. According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, the Astros could be struggling to find a market for the right-hander because they're saying any club that deals for Oswalt would have to assume the entire remainder of his contract.
Oswalt is still owed approximately $9.3MM this year, along with $16MM in 2011 and a $2MM buyout for his 2012 option. Hernandez also points out that because of Oswalt's no-trade clause, the 32-year-old could demand that the $16MM option be picked up before allowing a trade. In that case, any team acquiring Oswalt would be on the hook for over $40MM. Needless to say, as Hernandez reports, this rules the cash-strapped Dodgers out for now.
Danny Knobler of CBS Sports writes that Oswalt says he's willing to pitch anywhere where he could contend, including an American League club.
"Location doesn't matter. It's only for a year and a half," said Oswalt. "Actually, I'd be excited to pitch over here [in the American League]. Everybody keeps bragging that it's better."
As Zachary Levine and Bernardo Fallas of the Houston Chronicle point out, the Yankees fit Oswalt's criteria perfectly. We've heard lately that the Yankees haven't started looking at potential trade targets, though that could change in the next month and a half.
Yankees, Mets Will Have Interest In Cliff Lee
The Yankees haven’t started talking with the Mariners about Cliff Lee yet, but they will have interest if Jack Zduriencik makes him available and so will the Mets. Several executives tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the Mariners have pro scouts eyeing rival teams’ minor league prospects, even though they haven’t decided to deal Lee at this point. But unless the M's go on a major hot streak, it looks like Lee will be traded for the third time since last summer.
"I would expect to see Lee traded barring a 20 out of the next 30 run by the Mariners,” an AL personnel man told Sherman. “I would not think he'd be traded this month, but if Seattle wants the best return, it would be better off doing it now."
Many teams will have interest in Lee, including the Yankees and the Mets. The Yankees believe the Mariners would ask for Jesus Montero or Austin Romine in a trade for Lee and they would prefer to hold onto their top prospects as long as the price is that steep. Mets officials tell Sherman that they’ll acquire a starter, possibly Lee, if they remain contenders.
Lee currently ranks as a Type A free agent, so his team will have the chance to obtain two top draft picks for him by offering arbitration this winter. Barring the unexpected, Lee's team will offer arbitration and he will turn it down.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Ibanez, Andruw, Pena
On this date seven years ago, six Astros pitchers combined to no-hit the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Roy Oswalt started the game but had to leave after just one inning of work because of a groin issue. He was relieved by Pete Munro and then Kirk Saarloos before the three headed bullpen monster of Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, and Billy Wagner closed things out. It ended the Yankees' streak of 6,980 games with at least one hit.
Here are a few links to check out from our fellow baseball bloggers…
- Phillies Nation says it's time for the Phightin's to part ways with Raul Ibanez.
- Meanwhile, Crashburn Alley wants to see the Phillies shake up the bench.
- The Sacrifice Bunt thinks Andruw Jones could be a nice pick-up for the Padres.
- More Hardball looks at the peculiar season of free agent to be Carlos Pena.
- Disciples of Uecker reviews the Jeff Suppan era in Milwaukee.
- River Ave. Blues believes the Yankees will only add complementary pieces this summer.
- Capitol Avenue Club sums up the Braves' approach to this week's draft.
- 1 Blue Jays Way rounds up all the different kinds of draft picks we hear about this time of year.
- Baseball Opinion goes back to the review the AL East and the 2005 amateur draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Yankees Not Pursuing Lee Yet
2:58pm: An official tells Marc Carig of the Star Ledger that the Yankees have yet to discuss trading for players at the deadline, including Lee.
THURSDAY, 2:07pm: ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears (via Twitter) that the Mariners and Yankees have had "zero" discussions about Lee. That doesn't mean that they won't discuss the lefty in the future, but we now know that talks have not begun. Olney reminds us (via Twitter) that the Yankees have passed on the chance to trade for top pitchers before.
WEDNESDAY, 5:49pm: A rival executive tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that, despite the Yankees' effective rotation, he expects the team to be "undeterred in their pursuit of Lee on the trade market." According to Rosenthal's sources, the Phillies discussed Lee with the Yankees last winter prior to trading the left-hander to the Mariners. The Yankees had been willing to include Montero in a package for Lee, but that was before both the Vazquez trade and the emergence of Hughes.
3:56pm: A Yankees official told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that the team has no urgency to do anything with their rotation, which isn't necessarily at odds with King's report below. In other words, the Mariners might like the Yankees to get involved on Lee, but so far they're not.
More interesting is the team official's suggestion that only three players have been made available across baseball so far, and Lee is not among them.
8:03am: The Mariners are preparing for the Yankees to pursue ace lefty Cliff Lee, reports George A. King III of the New York Post. King says the Mariners have already scouted the Yankees' Low A and Double A clubs and aim to watch their Triple A squad soon. King spoke to a "person familiar with Seattle's thought process" who believes Jack Zduriencik will seek Triple A shortstop Eduardo Nunez as well as one of the Yankees' minor league catchers. King suggests that the Yankees would need assurances that they could sign Lee to an extension if they're required to surrender Austin Romine or Jesus Montero.
King believes renting Lee would hold appeal to the Yankees despite their strong rotation. The Yanks' boast a front five of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, and Javier Vazquez, and it's not clear who they'd bump for Lee. The most likely candidate, Vazquez, has a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings since returning from a break on May 12th. Trading Vazquez to clear a spot for Lee seems convoluted to me.
With Nick Johnson potentially out for the season, an offensive addition would be more fitting. To that end, King says the Yankees have scouts following the Astros in case Lance Berkman becomes available. Berkman is still owed $11.2MM heading into today's action, however.