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MLBTR Podcast: Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • The NL Central appears to be the most intriguing division from an offseason perspective. The 2023 division winner could be selling. The Reds have a positive youth movement that could be augmented with veterans and turn into a real threat. The Cubs and Cardinals have pieces and could do an offseason push to rapidly improve their teams. The Pirates always seem to be a year or two away. What does each team in the NL Central need to do take the Brewers spot on top of the division? Do you see a potential arms race in the middle of the country instead of the coasts? (25:10)
  • Do the Angels have a chance for Cody Bellinger or one of the top pitchers? (29:50)
  • Could you explain why any team would trade something of value for Jonathan India? He’s been one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball both of the last two years (according to both DRS and OAA), plus he’s been a below average hitter by wRC+ both years? He’s also had injury concerns both years. Maybe I’m wrong, but wouldn’t just about any contender aim higher than him as a starting second baseman? (34:10)

Check out our past episodes!

Cardinals Announce Six Roster Moves

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves in advance of today’s 40-man roster deadline.  Right-handers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse and catcher Pedro Pages had their contracts selected, while left-hander Connor Thomas was designated for assignment.  (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier today that Pages’ contract was going to be selected.)  Left-hander Packy Naughton was outrighted to Triple-A, and St. Louis officially confirmed the previously-reported news that Wilking Rodriguez elected free agency after the right-hander had also been outrighted to Triple-A.

It was essentially a set of chalk picks for the Cards in protecting three of the four Rule 5-eligible prospects on their MLB Pipeline top 30 list, with right-hander Ian Bedell the only eligible player now available to rival clubs in December’s R5 Draft.  Bedell might be one of the more interesting names to watch heading into the Rule 5, but the Cardinals felt Kloffenstein, Robberse, and Pages were more worthy of 40-man roster spots.

Kloffenstein and Robberse only joined the organization at the trade deadline, acquired from the Blue Jays in the Jordan Hicks trade.  Both pitchers made their Triple-A debuts after coming to the Cardinals, and they’ll likely start 2024 at Triple-A as well.  Since St. Louis is aiming to add multiple new starting pitchers this winter, Robberse and Kloffenstein will be competing with the Cards’ other young arms to see who might be part of the first wave of depth starters.  It also isn’t out of the question that either could be on the move if the Cardinals pursued some experienced pitching on the trade market.

Pages was a sixth-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2019 draft, and he hit .267/.362/.443 with 16 home runs over 497 plate appearances with Double-A Springfield last season.  Speaking of trade depth, the Cards might also look to the catcher position, as they now have four backstops (Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Andrew Knizner, and Pages) on the 40-man roster.

Thomas was a 40-man selection almost exactly a year ago, as St. Louis looked to protect the outfielder from the 2022 Rule 5 Draft.  The southpaw was coming off a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings in 2022, but couldn’t make much headway last year, delivering a 5.53 ERA, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate in 94 1/3 frames for Memphis.  Thomas is a grounder specialist who has faced some heavy BABIP misfortune during his minor league career, but the Cardinals have seen enough to potentially move on from the 25-year-old.

Naughton has a 4.98 ERA over 59 2/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2021 season, with his first two big league campaigns spent shuttling back and forth from Triple-A with the Angels and Cardinals.  His 2023 campaign was essentially lost to injury, as Naughton underwent flexor tendon surgery in late June and figures to miss probably the first half of the 2024 season, based on past timelines for similar procedures.  Naughton will continue rehabbing and potentially also surface for at least some bullpen work at some point next year.

Wilking Rodríguez Elects Free Agency

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The Cardinals have sent right-hander Wilking Rodríguez outright to Triple-A Memphis, per his transactions tracker at MLB.com, though Rodríguez has elected free agency. It wasn’t previously known that the Cards had removed him from the roster, so this opens a spot on their 40-man, which is now at 39.

Rodríguez, 34 in March, was selected from the Yankees in the 2022 Rule 5 draft. This was fairly unusual as most Rule 5 picks tend to be players in their early 20s who have yet to crack the big leagues. But Rodríguez actually made his major league debut back in 2014, tossing two innings for the Royals. He spent much of the intervening time away from affiliated ball, pitching for teams in Venezuela and Mexico.

The Yanks signed him to a minor league deal in August of 2022, surely intrigued by his 2.01 earned run average and 43.2% strikeout rate in Mexico that year, but the Cardinals plucked him away a few months later in the Rule 5. The righty opened the season on the injured list due to right shoulder soreness and underwent surgery in May. He stayed on the IL for the full season and collected a year of service time but never pitched in a regular season game for the Cards.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft cannot be optioned to the minors and have to stay on a club’s active roster or injured list for the full season. They need at least 90 days on the active roster in order to shed those Rule 5 restrictions, so Rodríguez would have carried his Rule 5 status into next season. It seems the Cards weren’t willing to keep him on the roster for now and have cut him loose. Tomorrow is the deadline to add players to 40-man rosters for the next Rule 5, so the Cards likely have some of their own prospects in mind that they want to use the roster spot on.

When Rule 5 picks are cut from the roster, they have to be offered back to their original club. Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Yanks declined, which allowed Rodríguez to be outrighted. But since he has a previous career outright, he has the right to elect free agency, which he has done. It’s possible he returns to the Cards in some non-roster capacity as Goold reports they are interested in bringing him back.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Donovan, Nootbaar, Watson, Judge

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Before signing Willson Contreras last winter, the Cardinals were known to be considering catching options on the trade market, which included talks with the Blue Jays about their then-surplus of Gabriel Moreno (who was eventually dealt to the Diamondbacks), Alejandro Kirk, and Danny Jansen.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch shed some light on those past talks between the Jays and Cards, writing that Toronto had interest in Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

With Goold also reporting earlier this week that Dylan Carlson was on the Jays’ radar this winter, there’s plenty of reason to think that Toronto and St. Louis could line up on some sort of trade this winter.  Nootbaar could slide perfectly into the Blue Jays’ left field vacancy, while Donovan’s ability to play almost any position would give Toronto lots of flexibility in figuring out how it wants to address its many needs around the diamond.  Of course, several teams have also made calls about Nootbaar, Donovan, and Carlson, and it remains to be seen if the Jays could outbid the field, if the Jays have the available pitching that the Cardinals are badly seeking this offseason, or even if St. Louis dealt any of these particular players whatsoever.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Rays hired Tony Watson for a job in their player development department, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  Watson will be working under director of pitching Winston Doom.  A veteran of 11 big league seasons from 2011-21, Watson retired in 2022 due to shoulder problems, and the 38-year-old is now moving into a new stage of his baseball career.  Known mostly for his seven seasons with the Pirates, Watson was a former All-Star reliever who posted a 2.90 ERA over 648 1/3 career innings, and is MLB’s all-time leader in holds (246) since the statistic started to be officially recorded by the league in 1999.
  • It isn’t any surprise that Aaron Judge is a big voice within the Yankees organization, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner writes that Judge and owner Hal Steinbrenner “have already met this offseason on multiple occasions.”  Examples of Judge’s influence might extend to the job security of manager Aaron Boone and director of player health and performance Eric Cressey, as Judge (and perhaps the Yankees clubhouse at large) likes both.  Kirschner notes the interesting dynamic this creates, writing that “Judge is seemingly on the second level of the team’s organizational ladder alongside” GM Brian Cashman, though Cashman himself earlier this week said he didn’t have any issue with star players like Judge or Gerrit Cole giving their input.
  • For more from the AL East, MLBTR’s Nick Deeds compiled another set of notes from around the division earlier today.

Lee Richard Passes Away

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Former big league infielder Lee “BeeBee” Richard recently passed away, per an obituary from Serenity Life Celebrations out of Waco, Texas. He was 74 years old.

Richard was born in Lafayette, Louisiana in 1948. He attended Southern University and A&M College in Baton Rouge, getting drafted by the White Sox in 1970. He played for the Sox from 1971 to 1975, getting traded to the Cardinals prior to 1976 for Buddy Bradford and Greg Terlecky. He was released after one year in St. Louis and didn’t make it back to the big leagues in subsequent seasons.

He finished his career having played in 239 games across five seasons. In 535 plate appearances, he recorded 83 hits, including 12 doubles, six triples and two home runs. He scored 71 runs and drove in 29, also stealing 12 bases. He mostly played shortstop but also some second base, third base and outfield.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Richard’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Dylan Carlson

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The Cardinals have received trade inquiries on switch-hitting outfielder Dylan Carlson from multiple clubs, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, with the Blue Jays being identified as one of them.

It would appear to be a fairly logical pairing, since the Cardinals are hoping to add multiple starting pitchers and are reportedly willing to considering trading position players in order to do so, with the Yankees having interest in outfielder Alec Burleson and utility player Brendan Donovan. The Jays, meanwhile, are hoping to add multiple position players this winter. The Red Birds and Blue Birds have also been fairly regular trade partners. Last year, they lined up on three separate deals, with the Jays acquiring Génesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong. They also made four other deals from 2017 to 2021.

Trading Carlson would be a sell-low move for the Cardinals at this point, given the results of the past two years. They used the 33rd overall pick to draft him in the 2016 draft and he became one of the club’s top prospects while in the minors, generally considered a player who was good at everything but without a standout tool, showing some good form at the plate, in the field and on the bases.

He got a brief debut in the shortened 2020 season but seemed to break out in 2021. Getting into 149 contests in that season, he walked at a solid 9.2% clip and hit 18 home runs. His .266/.343/.437 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 111, indicating he was 11% better than the league average hitter. He split his time between all three outfield positions and was considered around average on defense, leading to a tally of 2.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs.

In 2022, there were mixed results. On the positive side, he lowered his strikeout rate from 24.6% to 19.3% while keeping his walk rate steady and his defensive grades were slightly better. But he made multiple trips to the injured list, getting sidelined by a left hamstring strain and a left thumb sprain. He was limited to 128 games and just eight home runs but still produced 2.5 fWAR thanks to his improved defense.

But 2023 was unquestionably a disappointing campaign. He suffered an ankle sprain in May and went on the injured list for almost a month. Though he returned in June, the issue didn’t go away and he eventually required surgery later in the year. While on the field, he hit just .219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, but it’s fair to speculate about the ankle causing some of those results.

Carlson still has three years of club control left, qualifying for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $1.8MM for 2024, with two further arb years slated to follow. Moving on from a former first-round pick while he’s still young and affordable would likely be tough for the Cards, especially with his value somewhat weakened by the ankle surgery. But their desire for pitching and their position player surplus may put it on the table.

Even if Carlson were removed, the club would still have Burleson, Donovan, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Tommy Edman and Richie Palacios competing for outfield jobs, with Juan Yepez, Moises Gomez and Michael Siani also on the roster. Some of those players are also capable of playing on the infield, but the club has Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn potentially lined up on the dirt. That may put them in a position to move one or more of these players while still fielding a strong lineup.

The Blue Jays, as mentioned, are looking to acquire some position players this winter. Carlson could perhaps bolster the Toronto outfield, which just lost Kevin Kiermaier to free agency. But whether they can provide the starting pitching that is coveted in St. Louis is an interesting question.

The Jays have four rotation spots filled by Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi but a question mark for the fifth. The Cards would likely have varying degrees of interest in someone from that group, but the Jays might not want to open a second question mark in their rotation. Speculatively speaking, Alek Manoah could be an interesting fit for these talks, since he’s also a former top prospect coming off a down year.

He posted a 5.87 ERA in 2023 while getting optioned to the minors multiple times as his relationship with the club appeared to sour. He is still a year away from qualifying for arbitration but his circumstances are vaguely analogous to Carlson since both are still affordable and controllable but coming off frustration campaigns, albeit for different reasons. Toronto’s GM Ross Atkins said yesterday that Manoah should have the inside track on a rotation job, but the club also has other options like Mitch White, Bowden Francis and prospect Ricky Tiedemann, while they could also look to bolster that group in free agency.

That’s pure speculation and the clubs are likely discussing various scenarios, with the Cards fielding plenty of calls from clubs around the league. Carlson received interest from the Yankees and Orioles last year and it stands to reason those clubs would likely be interested again. This winter’s free agent class is generally considered weak on the position player side, which could position the Cards to use their many talented players to improve their pitching staff as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2023 campaign.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson

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The Yankees have discussed Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson as potential trade targets, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That duo are among a number of controllable Cardinals hitters who could find themselves in rumors over the offseason.

Donovan is the higher-profile and more desirable possibility. Over his two major league seasons, the South Alabama product is a .283/.381/.398 hitter. He has walked at an excellent 11.1% rate while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 14.7% clip. Donovan doesn’t have overwhelming power — he’s hit 16 home runs in 839 career plate appearances — but he’s a good pure hitter.

He also brings positional flexibility when healthy. He secured the National League Gold Glove award for utility players as a rookie, when saw notable action at second base, third base and in both corner outfield spots. He played mostly second, left field or first base in the early going in 2023. A forearm strain eventually prevented him from throwing, relegating him strictly to designated hitter in the middle of the summer. With the Cardinals reeling and selling off pieces at the trade deadline, Donovan shut things down entirely and underwent a season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon.

That could lead to some trepidation on the part of other teams regarding Donovan’s health. Yet there’s still plenty to like about the player. He’s a season away from qualifying for arbitration and is controllable for five years. He’s an above-average hitter who could either play regularly at the keystone or bounce around the diamond as needed.

The Yankees don’t have a need at second base. Gleyber Torres is on hand, and while New York could contemplate moving him before his final season of arbitration control, Oswald Peraza could step up. Donovan’s plus contact skills from the left-handed batter’s box would provide some balance to a Yankee lineup that skews towards right-handed power bats. New York general manager Brian Cashman suggested yesterday the club would prefer to add some lineup balance — preferably by bringing in an outfielder or two who fit the description. Donovan would be an option to see time in left field.

Burleson is strictly a corner outfielder. He struggled in his first extended major league action this past season, hitting .244/.300/.390 across 347 plate appearances. He struck out only 13% of the time but rarely walked and didn’t hit for much power. His season ended in September when he fractured his left thumb. Goold writes that he underwent surgery and is currently recovering.

A second-round pick in 2020, Burleson has a much better minor league track record than his middling ’23 campaign would indicate. He’s a .306/.356/.486 hitter over 641 Triple-A plate appearances. There’s risk considering he hasn’t yet shown the ability to hit MLB pitching. That could make him a more realistic trade option than Donovan for a St. Louis team looking to reload, however. At the very least, the asking price on Burleson figures to be quite a bit lower.

He doesn’t have a clear path to immediate playing time on a team that also rosters Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar. The Cards could keep him in the minors if they don’t find a deal to their liking. They could also trade one of their more experienced outfielders, of course. Carlson was a reported Yankee target back before the deadline.

There’s nothing to suggest the Yankees and Cardinals have any kind of traction on a trade, to be clear. St. Louis has reportedly set high asking prices on Donovan, in particular, in prior trade windows. The Yankees are surely casting a wide net as they identify targets in their search for outfield help. At the same time, it hints at the possibilities available for St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and his front office.

The Cardinals have been clear about their desire to bring in three starting pitchers this winter. It’s unlikely they’ll accomplish all of that via free agency. Mozeliak acknowledged yesterday the club would consider moving a hitter to acquire big league ready or upper minors rotation help (relayed by John Denton of MLB.com).

John Mozeliak On Cardinals’ Offseason Spending, Molina, Bloom

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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke with members of the media (including John Denton of MLB.com) on Monday at the GM meetings to discuss the offseason ahead. He addressed the team’s budget for 2024 and touched on how he plans to revamp the starting rotation. The executive also fielded questions about a coaching role for Yadier Molina, as well as rumors concerning a potential front office job for former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom.

After finishing the 2023 season with a 71-91 record, good for last place in the NL Central, there is no denying that the Cardinals need to spend in free agency if they hope to contend in 2024. That doesn’t mean the team is going to spend recklessly, however, as Mozeliak said they plan to be “prudent” with their expenditures. More specifically, he explained that the Cardinals will likely operate with a similar payroll next season as they planned to run this past year before selling off several veterans at the trade deadline. That means they have about $44MM to work with this winter (per Denton), although one would think they’d be willing to go slightly above that number for the right player. After all, sometimes the prudent move is to spend a little bit extra to land the best free agent targets.

The Cardinals have made it clear that starting pitching is their top priority, and for good reason. Their starters finished with the third-worst ERA and the second-lowest strikeout rate in the National League last season, and their numbers only got worse after the rotation lost Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery at the trade deadline.

In August, Mozeliak said he planned to bring in three new starters this offseason. He essentially repeated that sentiment on Monday, although he specified that he’s looking for two full-time starters, plus “someone that can maybe split roles.” The Cardinals already have veterans Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz penciled into the rotation for 2024. They also have several talented young arms waiting in the wings, including former first-round picks Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore, trade deadline acquisition Drew Rom, and top prospects Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy. None of those pitchers is quite ready to be trusted with an Opening Day job on the starting staff, but Mozeliak is hoping that at least a few of them will pitch “meaningful” big league innings in 2024.

There is rarely such thing as too much pitching depth, but still, if the Cardinals were to add three bona fide starters this winter, they could end up with a logjam in the rotation. That would mean limited opportunities for their young arms, and the Cardinals aren’t going to mortgage the future of the rotation for short-term gains in 2024.

With that in mind, it’s understandable why Mozeliak is interested in adding a hybrid starter/reliever who could pitch in the rotation if need be but could easily step aside if a more promising pitcher forces the issue. Nick Martinez is the most intriguing arm who fits that description, while other options on the open market include Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea, Jakob Junis, and Alex Wood.

In terms of additions beyond the roster, Mozeliak also answered questions regarding Yadier Molina, the beloved former Cardinal who is expected to join the coaching staff in 2024, and Chaim Bloom, the former Red Sox executive who has been connected to the Cardinals in recent days. Mozeliak could not offer much of an update on Molina, although he confirmed that the two sides remain engaged in conversations about the nine-time Gold Glove winner’s role next season. He is “hopeful” Molina will join the organization in some capacity.

As for Bloom, Mozeliak mostly avoided the question, although he did reveal that he has had “some discussions” with individuals from “outside the organization” about potentially coming on as an advisor to the front office. The long-time Cardinals executive explained that he wants to have “someone from the outside look at the inside.” Mozeliak has been the team’s chief baseball decision-maker since 2007, so it certainly makes sense that he’s seeking a fresh perspective from someone new to the organization.

Cardinals Claim Jared Young From Cubs

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The Cardinals announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Jared Young from the Cubs. They also announced their previously-reported deal for right-hander Riley O’Brien, who has had his contract selected. The 40-man roster is now full.

Young, 28, was drafted by the Cubs in the 15th round in 2017 out of Old Dominion University – his third college in three years.  He was never a major prospect, garnering a 40 grade from Baseball America prior to the 2019 season.  After the 2020 minor league season was canceled due to the pandemic, Young earned a promotion to Triple-A during the ’21 campaign.

Despite uninspiring hitting at Triple-A Iowa, Young received a brief Major League look with the Cubs in September 2022.  Young cleared waivers and was outrighted back to Triple-A in November of that year.  In June of this year, Young regained his spot on the Cubs’ 40-man roster and picked up 47 big league plate appearances in the bigs.  The Cubs again outrighted Young on Thursday, leading to today’s claim by the Cardinals.

Young has primarily played first base in the minors, but he’s also put in time at third base, second base, and the outfield corners.  As was the case with the Cubs, Young may have difficulty earning even a bench spot in St. Louis.  He did conquer Triple-A pitching this year with a 147 wRC+, and he’ll have to hit his way into more MLB playing time.

Cardinals Acquire Riley O’Brien From Mariners

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The Cardinals and Mariners got together on a minor trade yesterday, with St. Louis acquiring right-hander Riley O’Brien from the Mariners, according to MLB.com’s transactions log. The return headed to Seattle in exchange for O’Brien is not currently known, but figures to be insignificant. O’Brien is slated to hit minor league free agency if not added to the 40-man roster. While the Cardinals have not announced that O’Brien’s contract will be selected, they have just 38 players on their 40-man meaning no corresponding move would be necessary to do so.

O’Brien, 28, was an eighth-round pick in the 2017 draft by Tampa Bay. He pitched well in three seasons with the organization while seeing time as both a starter and reliever. By the 2019 season, he had reached Double-A with a 3.93 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 innings of work at the level. Though O’Brien did not pitch in the 2020 campaign thanks to the cancelled minor league season, he was swapped to the Reds in a deadline deal that brought Cody Reed to the Rays that summer.

O’Brien spent almost the entire 2021 season at the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, where he struggled somewhat to a 4.55 ERA across 23 appearances (22 starts). Despite that uninspiring performance, O’Brien was called up to make his big league debut near the end of September. Unfortunately, his sole appearance in the big leagues during the 2021 season did not go well as he walked three and allowed two home runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work. Cincinnati retained O’Brien on their 40-man roster throughout the 2021-22 offseason but ultimately designated the then-27-year-old righty for assignment in April in order to make room for left-hander Nick Lodolo on the 40-man roster.

That led the Reds to ship O’Brien to Seattle, where the Mariners had an open 40-man roster spot to offer the righty. While he returned to the big leagues in May and pitched a scoreless inning out of the bullpen, O’Brien’s 2022 season left plenty to be desired overall as he struggled to convert to full-time relief, posting a 7.03 ERA in 39 2/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level after being outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster in June.

Difficult as the 2022 season was, O’Brien returned to the Mariners in 2023 and pitched far better than he had the year before. Though he did not manager to make his way back onto the 40-man roster, O’Brien dominated the hitter-friendly PCL to the tune of a 2.29 ERA in 55 innings of work this year while striking out a whopping 37.7% of batters faced. Given those fantastic numbers at the Triple-A level this year, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals, who are known to be looking for bullpen upgrades this offseason, would be interested in taking a chance on O’Brien and finding out if his strong 2023 season in the minors could carry over to the big leagues in 2024.

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