Rosenthal On Yankees, Playoffs, Sabermetrics
The Yankees enter play today with a one-game lead over the Orioles and four games over the Rays. And, it's a good thing this isn't your father's Yankees, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. If George Steinbrenner was alive today, Rosenthal believes he might have fired manager Joe Girardi after blowing a ten-game lead in the AL East and replaced him with the likes of Lou Piniella. Hal Steinbrenner is almost the polar opposite of his father. So much so that, when Rosenthal asked Brian Cashman of the potential fallout that might occur if the team fails to reach the playoffs, the Yankees' GM said, "We have objective, patient ownership." Also from Rosenthal's column:
- The new schedule hasn't been a cure-all for small market teams like the Rays. Rosenthal suggests one way to mitigate the Rays’ disadvantage would be to scale revenue sharing so they would receive a greater percentage than a low-revenue club such as the Indians, who compete in a division with lower payrolls.
- A criticism of the new playoff system is Wild Card teams who have better records than division winners are penalized in the seeding of the Division Series. Rosenthal's solution is to wait until after the Wild Card game to seed the Division Series.
- The AL CY Young Award voting will be a test of how accepted advanced statistics are by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Rosenthal points out the last eight AL pitchers to either lead or tie for the lead in those categories, like the Rays' David Price this year, each have won the award. The Tigers' Justin Verlander meanwhile leads in wins above replacement and Chris Sale of the White Sox leads in ERA+. Price is tops, however, in quality of opponents faced, based on the rankings of Vince Gennaro, president of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR).
- Larry Bowa's interview for the Astros' managerial vacancy is a good sign, as rival executives have worried that GM Jeff Luhnow is surrounding himself with too many like-minded sabermetric types rather than building a diverse baseball operations department.
- The Marlins may have difficulty in sticking with their plan to keep Emilio Bonifacio in center field, play Donovan Solano at second, and make the acquisition of a third baseman their top priority. Rosenthal points out the market for third basemen is bare, so one alternative for the Marlins is to acquire an outfielder and move Bonifacio back to third base.
- Look for the Rays to exercise their $2.5MM option on Fernando Rodney. Rodney is bidding to become only the second reliever in history (Dennis Eckersley in 1990) to have a season of 40 or more saves and an ERA under 1.00. Rodney leads baseball with 43 saves and his ERA is 0.66.
- The Cubs will look again this offseason to move Alfonso Soriano, who is one home run and one RBI shy of his first 30-homer, 100-RBI season since 2005. If the Cubs fail to receive a sufficient offer, they could always bring back Soriano, owed $36MM over the next two years, and try to move him at the deadline again. Rosenthal cited the example of Carlos Lee of how it is easier to deal an overpriced player the closer he gets to the end of his contract.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Upton, Angels, Wright, Mets
Sunday night linkage..
- “I don’t think it’s ever fair to speculate on people’s jobs … My approach has always been to fully support the team we have in place, and when it’s time to make a change, we make a change," said Pirates owner Bob Nutting to Rob Biertempfel and Karen Price of The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review when asked if there would be any front office or coaching staff changes after the season.
- Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com surveyed four MLB execs about B.J. Upton's free agent outlook, and their estimates varied greatly. A National League GM predicted sees a three-year, $27MM deal for Upton while the other estimates ranged from four years at $50MM to five years at $70MM. The Rangers, Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, Reds, Giants, and Cubs are among the teams that could be in need of outfield help this winter.
- Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto says he is not ready to call this year's team a disappointment, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Dipoto also declined to discuss what owner Arte Moreno might be feeling about this season after investing in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson over the winter and trading for Zack Greinke in July.
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs believes that the Mets should exercise David Wright's option rather than extend him given his second-half slump. By picking up his reasonably-priced $16MM option, the Mets could buy themselves more time and properly evaluate whether he is worth a hefty extension.
Mike Axisa contributed to this post.
Rosenthal On Upton, Soriano, Olt, Porter
Highlights from the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..
- At the age of 28, B.J. Upton will be the youngest outfielder on the open market this winter. Rosenthal believes that Upton figures to land a deal of at least five years and virtually every NL East team could pursue him. The Marlins in particular could show strong interest as Dan Jennings was the Rays' scouting director when they drafted him in 2002. Earlier today, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com checked in with four MLB execs who had varied opinions on what kind of deal Upton will get this offseason.
- Rafael Soriano could opt-out of his three-year, $35MM deal at the end of this season in pursuit of a larger deal, but that might not be a wise choice. That would call for Soriano to forfeit his $14MM salary in 2013 and the Yankees would definitely make him a qualifying offer (around $13MM) that would require a team to give up draft pick compensation to sign him. Historically, that has hurt the value of free agent relievers.
- The Rangers had little interest in parting with Mike Olt at the deadline but some rival execs think that they'll be more willing to move him this offseason. While the Rangers have Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli as free agents and may like Olt to be a part of their offensive core going forward, he could have tremendous value as many teams are in search of a strong third base option.
- Don't be surprised if the Marlins talk to Nationals third base coach Bo Porter again in the event that they fire Ozzie Guillen. Earlier this week, the Astros met with Porter, making him the first person to interview for the managerial vacancy.
Latest On Astros’ Managerial Search
The Astros interviewed Nationals third base coach Bo Porter for their managerial opening yesterday. Here’s the latest on some other possible candidates for the position…
- Astros GM Jeff Luhnow met with former MLB manager and player Larry Bowa at Minute Maid Park today, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. Luhnow didn't say whether Bowa was interviewing for the managerial opening, but confirmed that the sides met to discuss "some baseball related matters.”
- The Astros interviewed Rays bench coach Dave Martinez for the managerial opening earlier in the week, McTaggart reports.
- Astros interim manager Tony DeFrancesco formally interviewed for the permanent managerial position yesterday, McTaggart reports (on Twitter).
Red Sox Notes: Valentine, De Jesus, Ellsbury
The Red Sox are on track to finish below .500 for the first time since 1997. Here’s the latest as a disappointing season winds down:
- Manager Bobby Valentine is now fighting a battle that he cannot win, opines Scott Miller of CBSSports.com. Miller writes that Valentine couldn't possibly be back as skipper in 2013 because either the Red Sox will lose patience or he will.
- In a heated interview on WEEI, Valentine characterized the 2012 season as "miserable" but said he'd definitely like to manage the Red Sox again in 2013. "If that's what I'm asked to do, that's what I'm going to get paid to do," Valentine said. He also suggested he would like to punch radio host Glenn Ordway in the face and defended himself when asked about a late arrival to a game earlier this year (highlights via Alex Speier).
- Blue Jays manager John Farrell would be an excellent hire for the Red Sox, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. The Red Sox tried to acquire Farrell from Toronto twice last offseason, including once after the Blue Jays made it clear that Farrell was off-limits to teams seeking managers, Bradford reports. The Blue Jays asked for Clay Buchholz as compensation for Farrell, according to WEEI.com. Red Sox pitchers who worked with Farrell in Boston have a deep respect for their former coach based on both friendship and fear, Bradford adds.
- Farrell said yesterday he’s "unequivocally" focused on the Blue Jays.
- Ivan De Jesus Jr. wanted to get traded from the Dodgers leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. “I wanted a fresh start,’’ said De Jesus, who was sent to Boston in the recent blockbuster trade between the Red Sox and Dodgers.
- The price tag on a potential extension for Jacoby Ellsbury would be “astronomical" should the Red Sox attempt to lock the outfielder up long term, ESPN.com's Buster Olney said on WEEI today (partial transcript via Kirk Minihane of WEEI.com). Olney said he's doubtful rival teams will overwhelm Boston with trade offers for Ellsbury, partly because he's a Scott Boras client.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jeff Keppinger
Jeff Keppinger can play multiple positions and he’s a difference maker on offense — at least against left-handed pitching. The combination will attract the interest of many teams when he hits free agency this coming offseason.
When the Rays signed Keppinger to a one-year, $1.525MM deal in January, they expected him to be a tough out, especially against left-handed pitching. The 32-year-old has thrived with Tampa Bay posting a .329/.376/.445 batting line in 320 plate appearances. He also has nearly as many walks (20) as strikeouts (21) thanks in part to a 93.2% contact rate that ranks third among MLB players with at least 300 trips to the plate.
Keppinger has been particularly effective against lefties, as his .411/.437/.558 batting line against them shows (103 plate appearances). This performance isn’t unexpected, either. Keppinger, a right-handed hitter, has a career line of .336/.380/.491 against left-handers.
Teams will also take note of Keppinger’s versatility when he hits free agency this offseason. He has appeared in 15 or more games at first base, second base and third base in 2012, playing mostly at the hot corner. He has previous experience at shortstop, though none since 2010. The mixture of versatility and offense has been worth two wins above replacement in 2012, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.
The ability to hit left-handed pitching doesn’t always translate into substantial free agent contracts, as noted lefty mashers Jonny Gomes (one-year, $1MM), Andruw Jones (one-year, $2MM) and Scott Hairston (one-year, $1.1MM) discovered last offseason. Similarly, veteran utility players usually sign for less than $5MM. Ramon Santiago, Nick Punto, Greg Dobbs, Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald obtained two-year deals worth $1.5-2MM per season last winter.
But few players offer the versatility to play multiple infield positions and the ability to produce against lefties. The combination could drive Keppinger’s asking price to the two-year, $10MM range. Aaron Hill, Clint Barmes and Mark Ellis signed contracts in that range a year ago, and those deals could represent a target for Keppinger’s representatives at CSE. Teams may hesitate to pay starter money for a so-called utility player and if that’s the case, the deals signed by Jerry Hairston Jr. (two years, $6MM) and Jamey Carroll (two years, $6.75MM) could provide an alternate template for Keppinger.
He definitely appears to be in line for a considerable raise and he has a good shot at a multiyear deal. It’s a notable shift in value for a player who was non-tendered by the Giants just nine months ago.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Cleared Waivers: Rhymes, Suarez
We'll keep track of the players that clear waivers today in this post..
- Infielder Will Rhymes and right-hander Albert Suarez have both cleared waivers and remain in the organization after being designated for assignment last week, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Rhymes hit .228/.299/.285 in 137 plate appearances for the Rays this season while playing second and third base. Suarez spent the year with Advanced-A Charlotte, posting a 4.08 ERA with 4.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 25 starts.
Rays Designate Will Rhymes For Assignment
The Rays have designated Will Rhymes for assignment, reports Marc Topkin of The Tampa Times. The move clears room on the 40-man roster for Jeff Niemann, who was activated off the 60-day DL.
Rhymes, 29, hit .228/.299/.285 in 137 plate appearances for the Rays this season while playing second and third bases. He hit .256/.326/.390 in 194 plate appearances with their Triple-A affiliate as well.
Rays Designate Albert Suarez For Assignment
The Rays have designated right-hander Albert Suarez for assignment, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The move will allow Tampa Bay to create space for the newly-acquired Ben Francisco.
Suarez, 22, spent the year with Advanced-A Charlotte where he posted a 4.08 ERA with 4.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 25 starts.
Rays Acquire Ben Francisco From Astros
The Rays announced that they have acquired Ben Francisco from the Astros in exchange for a player to be named later. Houston first acquired the outfielder from the Blue Jays in their ten-player trade on July 20th.
Francisco, 30, hit .244/.292/.370 with two homers in 144 plate appearances for the Astros and Blue Jays this season. The veteran has now been a part of four trades in his big league career and will join his fifth club when he arrives in Tampa Bay. Across six big league seasons, the outfielder owns a .258/.328/.425 slash line.