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What Could Greg Maddux Bring?

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Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux.  The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation.  Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching. 

Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year.  His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple.  The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003.  The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine.  I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball.  At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance.  Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.

Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver.  He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth.  He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.

If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job.  For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart.  He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future.  The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres.  Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.

Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season.  It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.

 

Globe and Mail: Cubs To Move Barrett?

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The Globe and Mail is Canada’s second-largest daily newspaper.  This little tidbit from sportswriter Jeff Blair may have escaped your attention:

"My sources are telling me that the Blue Jays and Cubs could figure in a deal after the All-Star break. The Cubs are going to dump infielder Todd Walker and might also look at moving Michael Barrett — whose omission from the NL All-Star team, even though it owes much to the justifiable presence of pitcher Carlos Zambrano as the Cubs representative, is one of the injustices of the All-Star rosters. Surprising, considering his knockdown of A.J. Pierzynski was universally cheered in most clubhouses. Barrett has his fans in the Blue Jays front office."

This is the first mention I’ve heard of Barrett as a trade candidate.  The 29 year-old is having a career-best season with the bat, hitting .305/.371/.502 in 213 ABs.  The Cubs acquired Barrett from Oakland (for whom he never actually played) for Damian Miller in December of 2003.  Barrett’s current deal leaves about $8 million due for 2006-07.  According to Baseball Prospectus, that’s very similar to his true value based on projections.  They have him worth $7.25 mil during that time period.

Given that the average NL catcher is hitting .266/.323/.403 this season, Barrett’s offense is quite an asset.  However, it’s still an open question as to whether his defense cancels out most of the value.  There aren’t a ton of great stats to evaluate a catcher’s work behind the plate.  One area in which Barrett is clearly deficient is throwing out baserunners.  His 20.6% success rate this year ranks 19th out of 22 qualified catchers.  Last year he was at 23%, and in ’04 it was 24%.  Barrett’s inability to throw out basestealers could mean as many as 60 outs that a Pudge Rodriguez would’ve recorded over the course of a season.

In a normal season Barrett will probably allow 5-10 passed balls, not terribly different from the average backstop.  But those are really the only two metrics I have.  Even John Dewan’s excellent Fielding Bible doesn’t tackle the issue of catcher defense.  Let’s face it: any critique of game-calling skills would be entirely anecdotal or subjective.  Players don’t openly criticize game-calling for the most part.  And I don’t buy into the catcher ERA concept at all.

Barrett has played over 100 games at third base back in his Expo days.  Considering the very weak free agent markets for third basemen and catchers, Barrett is an excellent pickup at an affordable price.  There’s even the possibility that his hitting improves further if he’s removed from the rigors of catching.  Some possible suitors include the Rockies, Dodgers, and Padres. 

Now There’s A Trade Rumor

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This is a hell of a trade rumor, and it’d be wrong not to pass it along.  According to the blog Bleed Cubbie Blue:

"The Cubs are reportedly "in discussions" with the Yankees for a deal in which the principals would be Aramis Ramirez…and Alex Rodriguez…This deal, if it happens, might also include Jacque Jones, and other lesser players including prospects on both sides.

This same source told me that the White Sox are "close" to acquiring Andruw Jones from the Braves; the price would be Brian Anderson and young pitching. That deal would also make sense for both sides.

If the A-Rod to the Cubs deal happens, also expect Todd Walker to be moved (maybe to the Tigers), and at that point A-Rod moves back to SS, Ronny Cedeno to 2B, and the Cubs get a placeholder 3B until they can either sign one or trade for one in the offseason."

Just to reiterate, all of the above comes courtesy of Bleed Cubbie Blue.  My own personal feeling is that the rumor did indeed originate from a legitimate source.  Now let’s take a closer look.

As you may know, A-Rod’s contract deserves a webpage unto itself.  As far as I can tell, the Yankees, or any other team, would owe him $16MM annually through 2010.  Based on projections, that’s pretty close to fair value. 

Aramis Ramirez was given the unfortunate ability to opt out of his current deal and become a free agent after this season.  Even if 2006 is an off-year, I think he could top the three years, $33.5MM he’s owed in the deal.  1060west sums it up: Ramirez will probably test the market given the weak class at the position. 

As for the other rumor – Jones would certainly be a sweet pickup for the White Sox.  Brian Anderson has been terrible this year, but he was the organization’s best prospect entering the 2005 season according to Baseball America.  The Sox have some decent if not spectacular pitching prospects, so this one isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  Plus, there’s always Brandon McCarthy.

It will be interesting to see if this one picks up enough steam to catch the eye of the Chicago print media.  They will undoubtedly dismiss it as an Internet rumor and not credit BCB as the source.       

Lining Up For Shealy

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It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight.  These are all from various newspapers. 

The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez.  Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP.  He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston.  Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control.  Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye.  Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.

Then there’s the Orioles.  Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn.  It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages.  The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35.  That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played.  He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy.  Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system. 

It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix.  The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy.  Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.

The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have).  Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma.  Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit.  He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season.  The persistent walk problem remains.  Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.

One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit.  Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A.  Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May.  So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.

Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment).  He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.

Teams Still Interested In Kerry Wood

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Just got word from a solid source, an insider who had previously indicated the Devil Rays’ interest in Ervin Santana back in December.  This time, he’s got some info concerning oft-injured Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood.

Word is that despite Wood’s awful health record, Jim Hendry is shopping him and has received some interest.  The Rangers would like to add Wood and may give up John Danks or Thomas Diamond to get him. 

Danks, a 21 year-old southpaw, has made some progress in his second stint in Double A.  His strikeout rate is way up and his control has improved, though his home run prevention has worsened.  Danks is mentioned as a potential #2 starter one day by Baseball America, and should earn a promotion to Triple A this year if he can further improve upon his 4.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Diamond is a 23 year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball and a good changeup.  He’s also done better in his second stint at Double A Frisco, managing a 4.15 ERA despite his 1.48 WHIP.  Diamond has whiffed over 11 batters per nine innings, but his walks per nine has soared past 6.  Diamond and Danks are ranked #2-3 in strikeouts in the Texas League, behind only Juan Gutierrez in the Astros’ system.

Wood would have to approve a trade to any club, and the Rangers seem more likely than another possible suitor: the Yankees.  I’m told the Yanks are poking around as well, but don’t have details on any offers.  Given that Wood’s $13.5MM option will most certainly be bought out for 2007, a trade to Texas would be contingent on a restructured agreement for 2007 with Wood.

Wood is no lock to be traded, and could turn into an effective, healthy pitcher if used in the bullpen.  The Cubs are certainly open to the idea of retaining Wood for 2007 at a discounted price.

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Fire Sale In Chicago?

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It’s May 28th and the Cubs are now 13.5 games out of first place, 13 games under .500.  The June schedule doesn’t include any pushover matchups (if there is such a thing for this club).  It’s becoming time to shake things up.  Which players are the most likely trade candidates?

How about Kerry Wood?  Yes, he loves Chicago and has a no-trade clause.  But there are a couple of teams in Texas who could use Wood as a backup option if they miss out on Roger Clemens. 

The Rangers are clinging to first place right now and could get Adam Eaton back in July.  Still, if the league figures out John Koronka the second time around, there may be a need for more starting pitching.  Wood makes $11MM and has the huge injury history, but he’d make for an intriguing pickup if he improves over the next month.  Seems to me that a Jason Botts would be plenty given how far Wood’s stock has fallen.

Houston would probably only express a mild interest in the event that Roger Clemens goes to the Yankees.  They could part with Willy Taveras, and then Jim Hendry would have his low-OBP speedster atop the lineup for years to come.

I’ve seen Aramis Ramirez’s name bandied about in the local papers.  Ramirez’s current four-year deal includes a player void option after ’06, built in by agent Paul Kinzer in the event that he has a monster 2006 season.  He’s off to a slow start, but does have an .848 OPS for May.  Even an off-year, resulting in .270-30-90, would be more than enough to top three years and $33MM in the free market.  That’s what’s left on his current deal.  Ramirez only turns 28 this year.  Still, he doesn’t sound like a man who wants to bail out.  One could envision the Angels, Phillies, or Dodgers getting involved if the Cubs decide to shop Ramirez.  He’s probably the team’s most marketable player, Mark Prior included.

Greg Maddux has a handshake agreement that he will not be traded.  Still, he could have some interest in helping the Padres, Giants, Angels, or A’s make a pennant run.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Maddux’s hot streak came at a time when teams aren’t ready to make deals (April).  Is Maddux hungry for pennant race baseball at all costs, or is he complacent the way Jamie Moyer was last summer?  Funny how the Chicago press was calling for a contract extension for Maddux after his renaissance (one month of excellent pitching). 

Juan Pierre seems very likely to be dealt.  There’s just one little problem: his .231/.268/.286 line.  The speedster hasn’t quite been Rondell White/Yadier Molina bad, but he’s still been awful.  If Pierre can heat up for a month or so the Cubs might be able to get something useful in return.  He would seem to fit in with the Angels or White Sox.  How about Brian Anderson for Pierre? John Mabry better watch his back.

The Cubs will definitely send off Todd Walker at some point this summer.  Countless teams would have interest in the affordable second base/DH candidate.  Role players like Scott Williamson and John Mabry are trade candidates as well.  Despite poor control this season, Williamson could be the most marketable of the three.

The Cubs have a host of additional undesirable to awful type contracts that probably could not be unloaded.  This includes Jacque Jones, Glendon Rusch, and Neifi Perez.  Some might include Bob Howry and Scott Eyre on this list despite their excellent starts.  If the Cubs want to use 2007 to rebuild, the two relievers should be shopped.   

Ringolsby: Cubs Interested In Shealy

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I’ve been waiting almost a month for a name to surface in connection with the Cubs’ first base vacancy that I actually like.  I’ve heard about Mike Sweeney, Kevin Millar, Tony Clark, and Jeff Conine.  While I was OK with the Clark idea, that deal made more sense two weeks ago.  I could see Derrek Lee back on the field for the Cubs in about one month.  In that case, you’d hope Jim Hendry could acquire a player who may be useful beyond then.

Even more ideal, though, would be acquiring a player who the Cubs might still want around if they cash in 2006 as a rebuilding year.  Ryan Shealy fits that description.  The 26 year-old right-handed first baseman is said to interest the Cubs.  Granted it was for Colorado Springs, but Shealy hit .328/.393/.601 in Triple A last year.  He’s at .293/.370/.683 in 11 games this season.

Acquiring Shealy is all about his 30 HR potential and nothing about his defense.  The Rockies attempted to convert him into an outfielder this spring, and the increased throws caused an elbow injury.  He’s a huge guy, and it’s not going to be pretty to see him lumber around the outfield. 

I know you typically need an arm to play right field, but once Shealy’s elbow is 100%, why not try him in right field a bit?  If Jeromy Burnitz can do it, maybe Shealy can too.  Jacque Jones is 1 for 18 against lefties and is hitting .238/.295/.363 against them over the past three seasons.  That’s like throwing Royce Clayton, Mike Matheny, or Neifi Perez out in right field.  The Cubs, as much as any team, need to be able to hit southpaws.  Maybe Shealy could push Matt Murton a bit too and DH in the AL interleague games.  Trust me, the Cubs can find this guy 350-400 ABs.

The Cubs have been auditioning all sorts of kid pitchers this year, and it’s time to send one of them packing for Shealy before a smarter team like the Red Sox or Athletics snags him.   

Should Cubs Add Tony Clark?

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Word comes today that Tony Clark is willing to waive his no-trade clause if that’s what the Diamondbacks want.  The Cubs are the obvious fit – should they go after him?

I vote yes.  The Cubs’ offense was barely acceptable before Derrek Lee went down, and now it’s just plain feeble.  This club cannot be backed into playing Neifi Perez regularly once again.

Clark is probably worth a win or two in Lee’s two month absence, and that easily justifies the $2MM owed to him through 2007.  Josh Byrnes is a shrewd GM, however, so Hendry has to try not to send the next Dontrelle Willis over.

The issue of what to do with Clark once Lee comes back isn’t really an issue to me.  The Cubs can use him to DH against the Indians and Mariners in June if Lee comes back early and otherwise add some pop and OBP to the bench.  If Hendry can flip him somewhere in August, so be it. 

Clark is not expensive and not a complainer.  If Josh Byrnes isn’t asking for Rich Hill, I think a deal should be made.  I wouldn’t expect Clark to hit .304/.366/.636 again, but he’ll improve the team by keeping Neifi on the bench. 

Cubs Shopping Maddux?

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A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball.  Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report.  According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped.  Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals. 

The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent.  My opinion from a couple of weeks ago:  he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak.  Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll.  Doesn’t seem to compute.  And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards.  I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.

Replacing Derrek Lee

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The Cubs have plenty of external options to replace their All-Star first baseman.  Still, IvyChat makes a fine point: Jim Hendry has very rarely made trades to cover for injuries (see Nomar, Alex Gonzalez.)  Then again, there was one exception (quote from IvyChat):

"What’s ironic is that the only reason Hendry received the contract extension was due to a trade he made to fill in for an injury. If not for Korey Patterson’s injury, the Cubs win nothing in 2003."

Link found via Baseball Musings.

RotoWorld adds that Michael Restovich was out of Triple A Iowa’s lineup last night, a possible indication that he will take Lee’s roster spot.

The Cubs are probably going to solve this one internally, a move that should cost them 2-3 wins this season.  While I liked the Cubs to win the division (I’m an eternal optimist) I didn’t like them to win it by more than three games.  And the three wins number assumes Lee misses just two months and returns as an All-Star, no sure thing.

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