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Wilkerson Deal Unlikely To Include Cedeno

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Interesting article in the Washington Post, found via RotoWorld.  The Post confirms the Cubs’ interest in Brad Wilkerson, as mentioned on this site on November 29th.

The RotoWorld blurb and the Post article make a valid point: with the Cubs’ failure to sign Rafael Furcal, Ronny Cedeno is much less likely to be dealt.  RotoWorld speculates that Jerome Williams or Corey Patterson could be possible trading chips.

Bowden plans to be active, using money not spent on Esteban Loaiza and Hector Carrasco to acquire a free agent pitcher.  Back in October, I speculated that A.J. Burnett could wind up in Washington.  The possibility remains, and will increase in likelihood if the team is purchased soon.  One way or another, the Nationals are going to acquire several starting pitchers this offseason.

Cubdom Reacts To Furcal Signing

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The Cubs’ fan base has taken a reasoned approach to the Dodgers’ signing of Rafael Furcal.  Over at The Cub Reporter, Ruz praises GM Jim Hendry for not engaging in a bidding war.  He also recommends signing lower-tier outfielders and/or seeing what the kids can do instead of getting involved with Johnny Damon.

CubDumb also doesn’t seem to mind missing out on Furcal. 

Notes On Byrd, Burnett, Sosa

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Today’s hot stove happenings:

Ken Rosenthal reports on the Cubs’ interest in A.J. Burnett.  This confirms our assertion from November 18th:

"It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable.  Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder.  GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn.  Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often.  The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter."

Speaking of Sosa, the Mets are mentioned as a suitor for the outfielder.  The opinion here is that Sosa has nothing left, and is three years older than his listed age of 37.  Only a foolish team desperate to allocate its free agent budget somewhere, anywhere, would take a chance on Sosa.  I’m predicting the Kansas City Royals sign him as a PR move.

In yet another Rosenthal scoop, the Indians nabbed Paul Byrd for two years and $14.25MM.  There’s a club option for the third year.  We first reported the Tribe’s interest on November 29th.  Byrd should provide decent value at what’s become the going rate for a middle-of-the-rotation starter.  The fallout:  the Angels will have to bring in a name pitcher if Jarrod Washburn also leaves town.  I think he will, and the Angels kicking the tires on Erik Bedard, Livan Hernandez, and Jason Marquis.

The Mets moved quickly on Paul LoDuca, giving up one of their best remaining pitching prospects.  Juan Pierre remains the last man standing, and the Marlins haven’t been waiting around to ditch their expensive players.  Pierre should be gone as soon as the Fish find a team desperate enough to part with a top-notch prospect.  The feeling here is that that team will not be the Yankees.      

Thanks to Jerry and Alex    

Cubs Rumermongering: Lowe, Lugo, and Roberts?

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I caught a well-respected source shortly before he left for the winter meetings in Dallas today. 

He didn’t have anything on which way Rafael Furcal is leaning, but he did confirm that the Cubs’ offer of five years and about $50MM is on the table.  This is nothing new, but now you have one more source authenticating the fact that the Cubs guaranteed the fifth year.  Some sources have claimed that the Cubs came out of the gate with 5/50, but in reality their initial bid was four years and $38MM.

The Cubs are still in on Juan Pierre.  You’ve surely heard mention of interest from the Yankees, White Sox, and Padres lately.  Just a reminder that the Cubs do indeed have Pierre on their radar currently.

We’ve been talking about Milton Bradley for a week now, and talks are heating up with L.A.  Another name the Cubs are seriously considering is Derek Lowe. Lowe had a resurgent year in Los Angeles, and Hendry would feel much safer being able to pencil in 32 starts from him for ’06.  You can never have too much pitching.

Here and there, you may have heard that Carlos Zambrano could be had in a trade.  That’s absurd, of course.

Will Carroll mentioned in his Mill today that the Braves will snag Julio Lugo if Furcal departs.  It works the other way too – the Cubs will be hot on his trail if Furcal re-signs with Atlanta.

Finally, the Cubs are thinking about dealing for Dave Roberts to help out as a sort of utility outfielder.  The Padres have little need for him at this point.      

Where’s Javier Vazquez Headed?

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Ken Rosenthal had an informative article yesterday about starting pitchers likely to be traded.  It’s not loaded with new information, but it’s a handy summary.  One bit of new info (at least for me) was a list of likely suitors for Javier Vazquez.  Rosenthal named the Braves, Cubs, Mets, and Indians as likely to be interested.  In the same sentence, Rosenthal mentioned that Vazquez’s trade request was to join a team closer to his home in Puerto Rico.

Vazquez was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico.  I’m not sure if he still lives there, but it’s a reasonable assumption.  If Vazquez’s true main concern is to be as physically close to possible to Ponce, and Rosenthal’s list of suitors is accurate, it would be helpful to know the distance from Ponce to each team’s city.  That’s why I compiled this handy chart.

Distance from Ponce, Puerto Rico (miles)
Atlanta 1548
New York 1632
Cleveland 1851
Chicago 2064
Phoenix 3000

You can see why he was getting a little homesick playing in Arizona.  If geography is any indicator, Atlanta is the frontrunner.  Maybe they would ship Kyle Davies and change over to the D’Backs.

Ah, but what if Vazquez simply wants to be near large numbers of Puerto Ricans?  New York blows other U.S. cities out of the water, of course.

How about Puerto Ricans as a percent of the total city population?  Not a big surprise:

% of Total Population
New York, NY   9.0
Chicago, IL   1.8
Cleveland, OH   1.6
Atlanta, GA   0.5
Arizona   0.4

Though Atlanta is a little closer to Puerto Rico, the Vazquez should feel right at home with the Mets.  Indeed, such a trade is on the table.

Brad Wilkerson To Cubs For Ronny Cedeno

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I promised myself I was going to take the evening off from rumormongering, I really did.  But this one was too sweet and reliable to leave til the morning.  Here’s the scoop – stay with me on this one.

A source went to college with Barry Larkin’s cousin, Michael.  (Michael is a wide receiver at Miami at Ohio, by the way).  My source was in Cincinnati for Thanksgiving, as was Michael Larkin.  Michael passed along the following info to my source via his cousin Barry.

It appears that Nationals GM Jim Bowden has asked Barry Larkin what he thinks of Cubs SS/2B Ronny Cedeno and for Barry’s help with Cedeno’s defense if he’s acquired.  The Nationals’ front office has a covert concern that Jose Vidro is done for his career, and Cedeno would be an ideal safety net at 2B.  Plus, the team wasn’t exactly thrilled with Cristian Guzman’s horrific season in ’05.

Barry Larkin relayed to his cousin that the potential deal was Ronny Cedeno for Brad Wilkerson straight up.  Then the info got to my source, and now it’s in your adoring hands.  Believe it if you want to – I think it’s on the level.

Ronny Cedeno was ranked 16th among Cubs prospects by Baseball America before the 2005 season.  He’s 23 years old and has a cannon arm.  He hit .300 in 80 ABs with the Cubs in 2005.  Before that, he managed a .355 mark in 245 Triple A at-bats.

Brad Wilkerson had an off year at age 28, ranking 13th among all CFs.  He’s got superb on-base skills.  He spent time at all three outfield positions and first base in ’05.  He’s yet to reach free agency.

Thanks to Rob G.

Milton Bradley For Todd Walker

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According to Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000, the Cubs are talking to the Dodgers about swapping Todd Walker for Milton Bradley.  Considering the devaluing of Bradley around baseball, the proposed trade sounds plausible.

If the deal were to go through, it’s most likely that Walker would play third base for Los Angeles.  It’s also possible that Jeff Kent moves to first and Walker remains at second base. 

Walker has played 60 games at third base in his career, and Kent has spent 105 games playing first.

Thanks to John

Details On Cubs’ Furcal Offer Revealed

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It has been widely reported at this point that Cubs GM Jim Hendry had dinner with Rafael Furcal and his wife on Sunday and made a contract offer.  Though the link is to a Paul Sullivan column, Bruce Levine initially broke the news yesterday on ESPN Radio 1000.  (Thanks to all that passed me that info).

MLBTradeRumors.com has now uncovered the details of Hendry’s offer.  According to a source close to the proceedings, the Cubs offered a four-year deal worth $38MM to Furcal. 

Furcal was the third-best shortstop in baseball in 2005, and it will take a deal larger than Edgar Renteria’s four-year, $40MM contract for the Cubs to reel him in.  Ultimately, the Cubs will probably have to come back with a five year offer worth a little more than $50MM.

Cubs Acquire John Mabry

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The word over at Bernie’s Pressbox via Viva El Birdos is that the Cubs have signed 35 year-old OF/1B/3B John Mabry to a one-year contract for $1MM.  Mabry is coming off a poor season during which he hit .240/.295/.407 in 246 at-bats.

This rumor is not yet confirmed.  A million bucks sounds a bit high coming off an off year, although Mabry earned $725,000 in 2005.  He was a spectacular role player in 2004, hitting .296/.363/.504 in 87 games.  It may be that Mabry was given more playing time than is good for him in ’05.

Mabry’s versatility would indicate that Jose Macias might be cut from the 40 man roster.  Macias made $800,000 in 2005 while playing many positions, none of them well.

Update: Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs have indeed signed John Mabry to a one-year deal.

Thanks to Alex

Cubs Interested In Bradley: Update

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Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus has confirmed the Cubs’ interest in center fielder Milton Bradley, and adds a few interesting tidbits.

According to Carroll, Bradley "figures to be a Dodger non-tender and is someone who doesn’t scare Dusty Baker." 

I’ve heard whispers of L.A. non-tendering Bradley before, and I find it downright baffling.  To throw away a world of potential just to do things "The Dodger Way" seems like a terrible business decision.  Whether or not Bradley is a guy you want to have a beer with, his talent is undeniable.

Consider: Bradley posted a 3.8 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) in just 283 at-bats in 2005.  Prorated for 600 at-bats, Bradley’s WARP would rank him second among all center fielders, behind only Jim Edmonds.  Bradley excels in all aspects of the game except for two: staying healthy and pleasing the media.  The continual injuries are why it’s not fair for me to prorate his WARP over 600 ABs and say he’s better than Andruw Jones.  But if the potential is there, why not pay $3-4MM to find out what he can really do?  Bradley is only 27.

The idea that Bradley could be a Cub for absolutely nothing should make Cubs fans salivate.  However, it’s been pointed out that Dusty Baker never seemed in full control of Sammy Sosa or Kent Mercker, so it remains to be seen if he can get a handle on Bradley. 

Another good point that’s come up in the comments on this site is that the Cubs will have to cut or trade someone from the 40 man roster once the Bobby Howry signing is made official.  Some suggest Adam Greenberg, Jose Macias, or Brian Dopirak could be cut, but it’s more likely that a trade is imminent. 

       

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