A-Rod Not Headed To Cubs
I spent a good amount of time speculating on possible new teams for Alex Rodriguez in 2008, especially the Cubs. I even assigned the Cubs’ chances at 15%. However, Rodriguez was fairly frank yesterday about that idea:
"Whoever writes that couldn’t be more wrong."
He loves the American League, the Yankees, and the nonstop media buzz. I do think Chicago is a top below New York and Boston for media insanity. We’ve got just two major newspapers here, and only Jay Mariotti can be counted on for something offensive on a regular basis.
Meanwhile, David Wright professed his willingness to move off third base if the Mets could acquire Rodriguez. The only alternative for Wright in ’08 would be left field, followed by first base after that.
Cubs To Resume Talks With Carlos Zambrano Today
According to Carlos Zambrano himself, his agents and Jim Hendry will resume talks about a contract extension today by phone. Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says the parameters are five years and an AAV between $14.6-18MM. Makes sense, and I imagine a full no-trade would be in there too.
Zambrano had a lot to say yesterday, promising a Cy Young for himself a World Series title for Chicago. He later qualified that last one by saying he’s "almost sure." As a Cubs fan, I enjoy the bravado.
I once attended the 1998 Cubs Convention. That ended up being a playoff season for the Cubs, their first since 1989. I had the privilege of meeting Kevin Tapani. I told him I hoped he’d win 20 games that year (I thus take most of the credit for his career-high 19 wins despite his 4.85 ERA). Tap told me, "it’d be a great season if that happened." It was an appropriate response for a past-his-prime battler. I feel that Zambrano would tell a 15 year-old kid that he’ll win 25 and hit 25 home runs too.
Tim’s take: Zambrano signs a five-year, $85MM extension with the Cubs before the season begins.
Alex Rodriguez And The Cubs
UPDATE: In a related story, Jon Heyman of SI.com lists a slew of teams that inquired about Rodriguez’s availability this winter: the Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Indians. Heyman says the White Sox and Dodgers were the most persistent. None of the offers went anywhere given Rodriguez’s unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause.
Bob Raissman of the New York Daily News has an imposing mustache as well as some insight into Alex Rodriguez‘s next possible destination. The article involves Lou Piniella in his underwear as well as a lot of crying and one tender kiss. I found it touching.
Anyway, Raissman believes, based on an upcoming HBO interview with Rodriguez, that a reunion with Lou Piniella in Chicago would be a dream come true for him. Rodriguez responded to the idea thusly:
"He’s on a different team in a different league. My memories of Lou are in the present and the past, not the future."
This is not the first time Rodriguez has been connected to the Cubs. Last July, later confirmed by other sources, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke news of the team’s trading deadline interest.
I would imagine that Rodriguez would not play shortstop for the Cubs for the duration of his 5+ year contract. More likely to me: A-Rod plays shortstop for three seasons, through 2010. At that point, Derrek Lee‘s contract will be up and Aramis Ramirez might be ready to shift to first base. Ramirez is a Cub through 2011 or 2012.
Tim’s take – Chance of Alex Rodriguez signing with the Cubs in the ’07-’08 offseason: 15%.
Cuban To Bid For Cubs?
UPDATE: Cuban shoots down the rumor. Today has been a big day for shot-down rumors. Well here’s a rumor that’s about to come true: I’m planning on making tacos for dinner.
Radar Online is reporting that Mark Cuban is set to offer the Tribune Company $625MM for the Cubs. That’s about 40% more than the recent Forbes estimate of the team’s worth. The Tribune refused to comment.
If Cuban were to successfully purchase the club, he’d be saddled with some painful backloaded contracts. Take the ’09 Cubs – they have four players under contract for $12-16MM (Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Lilly). And Marquis, Blanco, and DeRosa locked in as well. That’s $71MM on the books for seven players. It won’t be fun to be the person digging out from Jim Hendry’s hole.
2007 Chicago Cubs
A reader suggested that during this slow rumor period, with 30+ days until the season starts, I do Team Outlooks once again. Sounds like a good idea to me; a lot has changed with most teams. Let’s kick it off with the Cubs.
Jim Hendry’s contract obligations:
C – Michael Barrett – $4.5MM + $0.133 of signing bonus = 4.63MM
C – Henry Blanco – $1.8MM
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Mark DeRosa – $4.33MM
SS – Cesar Izturis – $4.15MM
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $8MM + $1MM of signing bonus = $9MM
IF – Daryle Ward – $1MM
IF – Ryan Theriot – $0.38MM
LF – Cliff Floyd – $3MM + incentives/Matt Murton – $0.38MM
CF – Alfonso Soriano – $9MM
RF – Jacque Jones – $4MM
OF – Angel Pagan – $0.38MM
SP – Carlos Zambrano – $12.4MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $5MM
SP – Rich Hill – $0.38MM
SP – Jason Marquis – $4.75MM
SP – Mark Prior – $3.575MM
SP – Wade Miller – $1.5MM + incentives
RP – Ryan Dempster – $5MM
RP – Bob Howry – $4MM
RP – Scott Eyre – $3.5MM
RP – Kerry Wood – $1.75MM + incentives
RP – Will Ohman – $0.9MM
RP – Neal Cotts – $0.825MM
RP – Mike Wuertz – $0.38MM
I know I’ve got a 13-man pitching staff and 26 total players here, but we can safely assume one of these pitchers will be on the DL at any given time. I have the 2007 payroll around $99MM. Notice how the Cubs backloaded contracts for guys like Ramirez, Soriano, Lilly, and Marquis. They have a clear win-now strategy and could probably add one more impact $10MM player via trade if a large need surfaced. Could be trouble in ’09 though.
OBP issues notwithstanding, I think the Cubs’ offense is clearly above average. Just looking at league positional averages, only Izturis seems obviously below. DeRosa should be about league average at 2B. They didn’t just add Soriano over Juan Pierre – they’re replacing crap 1B production with an apparently healthy Lee. Left field could be improved as well.
Defense will be a concern with this club. Izturis and Lee can certainly handle their positions, but the rest are not known for glovework. Soriano is completely untested at a key defensive position, and Jones wouldn’t be great either. If Felix Pie can give the Cubs league average CF offense right now, they should play him in center and ship Jones out for whatever. Lilly and Hill would be forever thankful.
The starting rotation should be the key to the Cubs’ success. If this group can manage a collective 4.50 ERA, they’ll be in the top half of the league. I have the Cubs coming in around 4.15, which is probably on the optimistic side. It’s because I have Hill at 3.55 and 120 innings of Prior at 4.00. Then again, I don’t expect Marquis/Miller to be much below 5.00 if at all. I don’t think the Cubs need to rely on Prior/Miller. Sean Gallagher, Angel Guzman, or Sean Marshall could fill in capably as the #5 if neither rehab project pans out. I like the depth, and it’ll be a good staff if Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill are healthy.
The Cubs seem to have a decent bullpen. I don’t want to say above average, but I see the potential. Last year’s relief signings turned out well and aren’t showing scary signs of decline. The underrated Wuertz and Ohman give the team four solid relievers. A healthy Wood or effective Cotts/Dempster would be big lift and could lift the pen to above average. Larry Rothschild and the Cubs’ training staff can make the difference.
If the Cubs don’t give Dempster too long of a leash, are bold with Pie, and Hill’s second half promise carries over, they should be at least a wild card contender all year. Those are my three ifs for the ’07 Cubs.
Attention Cubs Fans/Writers
As you may or may not know, I also own the website AllCubs.com. We’ve got a nice community of regulars over there, and I’d like to grow that more in 2007. Originally I started the site with the idea of a community approach for authors, and recruited about 12 people. We are now down to one regular poster (though Michael does a fantastic job). I would like to find some more writers as the season approaches.
Here are the qualifications:
– You write well. Maybe you’re a journalism/English major, maybe you have done some cool stuff on the web already, maybe you just got skills. Prove that you can write well.
– You’re not looking for money. AllCubs doesn’t make any money. If it does one day, I will pay the authors. But right now the main benefit to a writer would be an audience of hundreds or even thousands per day. A nice opportunity to build a sportswriting resume in my opinion.
– You honestly plan to give the site two posts per week of at least a few paragraphs.
– Something that will make you stand out as a Cubs blogger. There are a ton of Cubs blogs out there, so I’d like a fresh take if possible.
If this interests you, write me at allcubs@gmail.com explaining your qualifications. I have to apologize in advance for not replying to all of the emails. Thanks.
Michael Barrett Interview
Yesterday, Cubs catcher Michael Barrett kindly answered some questions for MLBTradeRumors.com. Michael has a new website up called Barrett Baseball; check it out.
What’s it like working with Lou Piniella? Any major differences compared to years past?
Lou is a professional. He expects a lot of stuff from everyone and that’s a good thing. It’s too early to talk about the differences between this year and last year, but everyone is really excited for the year to begin.
What do you see as the Cubs’ biggest obstacle in making the playoffs this year?
Staying healthy.
Do you have any preference as to which spot you hit in the batting order?
No, not really. I just want to help the Cubs win. Wherever Lou wants me to bat, I’m going to hit in that spot.
Based on what you’ve seen so far in camp, what are your thoughts on new additions Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis?
Those are two veterans who have been around the game for a long time and I’m very excited to work with both of them. They both came in to camp looking like they are ready to go and I can’t wait to see how they pitch in the beginning of the season. I know everyone here is happy to see them both.
Do you ever say anything to opposing hitters to rattle their cages?
I don’t like throwing gas on the fire. If I say anything, the hitter ends up turning that against me and hits a home run. If I say anything, it gets them more excited and focused on performing well. If anything, I’ll say something to the pitcher.
What’s the best clubhouse prank you’ve seen?
Will Ohman walked out of the Cubs clubhouse after a game to find his Yukon on cinderblocks, courtesy of Ryan Dempster. Greatest prank ever.
Should Cubs Trade Zambrano?
Phil Rogers has an idea – if the Cubs can’t come to an agreement with Carlos Zambrano, they should trade him. And sooner rather than later. Personally, I don’t buy into the Bobby Abreu theory – that the Phils were inspired to play better because they traded him for peanuts. He’d look mighty fine in the Phillies’ lineup this year, and I think Ryan Howard would’ve had the same insane second half with or without him. Then again, I wasn’t in the Phillies’ clubhouse last summer so who knows. But I digress.
Rogers thinks Z will get his five or six-year deal from the Cubs. But he speculates on several possible return packages. Ervin Santana, Wood/Aybar, and Adenhart/Mathis from the Angels. Pavano and Sanchez/Clippard from New York. Pelfrey/Humber, Heilman, and Martinez/Gomez from the Mets.
Given the deals for Jason Jennings and Adam Eaton, Zambrano would certainly command one top-flight young pitcher (Chris Young, Jason Hirsh). He would also require a second promising but imperfect young position player (Adrian Gonzalez, Willy Taveras). Then there’d be at least one more wild card piece (Akinori Otsuka, Taylor Buchholz).
So a Santana/Aybar/Mathis package seems fair. I’m sure some other clubs could assemble something comparable. In the Mets’ case, Rogers’ selection of players seems too much. Then again, one season of Zambrano is clearly superior to one of Jennings or Eaton.
Should Cubs Trade Zambrano?
Phil Rogers has an idea – if the Cubs can’t come to an agreement with Carlos Zambrano, they should trade him. And sooner rather than later. Personally, I don’t buy into the Bobby Abreu theory – that the Phils were inspired to play better because they traded him for peanuts. He’d look mighty fine in the Phillies’ lineup this year, and I think Ryan Howard would’ve had the same insane second half with or without him. Then again, I wasn’t in the Phillies’ clubhouse last summer so who knows. But I digress.
Rogers thinks Z will get his five or six-year deal from the Cubs. But he speculates on several possible return packages. Ervin Santana, Wood/Aybar, and Adenhart/Mathis from the Angels. Pavano and Sanchez/Clippard from New York. Pelfrey/Humber, Heilman, and Martinez/Gomez from the Mets.
Given the deals for Jason Jennings and Adam Eaton, Zambrano would certainly command one top-flight young pitcher (Chris Young, Jason Hirsh). He would also require a second promising but imperfect young position player (Adrian Gonzalez, Willy Taveras). Then there’d be at least one more wild card piece (Akinori Otsuka, Taylor Buchholz).
So a Santana/Aybar/Mathis package seems fair. I’m sure some other clubs could assemble something comparable. In the Mets’ case, Rogers’ selection of players seems too much. Then again, one season of Zambrano is clearly superior to one of Jennings or Eaton.
Zambrano Close To Five-Year Deal?
According to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, Carlos Zambrano announced yesterday that he’s close to signing a five-year contract with the Cubs. However, Sullivan’s source says the two sides still have a long way to go and Zambrano has yet to receive a concrete offer.
Based on comments from Zambrano and Cubs GM Jim Hendry, the two parties seem to agree on a five-year length. Capping at five instead of six or seven years is a huge win for the Cubs, even if they go up to $17MM annually. Most likely, the sides will settle around five years and $80MM. That’d be a significant loyalty discount for the Cubs. On the other hand, Zambrano’s deal would be on par with those of Roy Oswalt and Chris Carpenter.