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Cubs Rumors

Cubs Still Chasing Aubrey Huff

By Tim Dierkes | December 8, 2005 at 8:50am CDT

Eduardo Encina is a Devil Rays beat writer for the Tampa Tribune.  In today’s article, Encina makes it clear that Aubrey Huff is prepared to leave Tampa Bay this winter.  He mentions the Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Angels, and Orioles as the interested parties.

I spoke to Encina late last night, and he elaborated on some of the details concerning Huff.  Encina listed five different suitors for Huff in his article, but mentioned to me that there are actually seven teams hot on his trail.  He told me the Cubs are the "most interested team."  One team not mentioned in his article that is in play is the Mets. 

Encina mentioned that Huff rumors get complicated mainly because of all the possibilities for a package deal with Julio Lugo, Toby Hall, or Danys Baez.  He said Huff is the player the Rays are most eager to deal, but they require a "top-prospect pitcher and a position player add in."  This quote from Huff in Encina’s article makes it clear that Aubrey has packed his bags:

"It always seems like they’re shopping me around to see what they’re going to get. You don’t shop unless you mean it."

Given that the Cubs are the frontrunners at the moment, who could they send over to acquire Huff?  In my estimation, the pitcher required would be one of Angel Guzman, Rich Hill, and Sean Marshall.  In perusing the position players on the Cubs’ 40 man roster, it makes sense that catcher Geovany Soto could be involved as well.

UPDATE: I spoke to Encina a little bit more, and he told me a trade of Toby Hall is becoming "more unlikely by the day."  Given that and an impending Lugo deal, the Rays could try to obtain a shortstop as part of a Huff trade.  Regardless, the focus of the Devil Rays will continue to be pitching.      

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Chicago Cubs Tampa Bay Rays Aubrey Huff

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The Price Of Pierre

By Tim Dierkes | December 7, 2005 at 1:24pm CDT

You already know how I feel about Juan Pierre.  What’s the deal with the three pitchers the Cubs shipped over to get him?

Renyel Pinto is a 23 year-old southpaw with a plus changeup and 94 mph fastball.  While ranked the Cubs’ 6th best prospect by Baseball America before the 2005 season, he’s now dropped out of the top ten.  If you look at Pinto’s numbers the last couple of years, he’s mastered Double A but can’t crack Triple A.  However, he’s gotten only about 30 innings in Iowa as an opportunity.  Pinto prevents home runs well and strikes people out, but is a bit generous with the walks.

Ricky Nolasco is a 23 year-old righthander with a low 90s sinker and a good curveball.  Nolasco was ranked just 19th among Cubs prospects before the ’05 season, and was upgraded to 7th overall after this performance in Double A this year.  The Cubs pushed him up to Iowa for 40 innings in ’04 and he didn’t fare well.  Nolasco has pretty good control and nice strikeout numbers.  He was to be sent to the Rangers for Rafael Palmeiro in 2003, but Palmeiro vetoed the deal.

Cubs fans might be a little more familiar with Sergio Mitre, as he’s thrown 121 uninspiring innings in the big leagues.  Mitre has looked OK at Iowa, but has been never been able to translate success save for a brilliant 16 inning stretch this year.  He might be able to crack the back end of Florida’s rotation in due time.

To sum it up, the Cubs didn’t really give up any can’t miss prospects in this trade.

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Chicago Cubs Miami Marlins Juan Pierre Renyel Pinto Ricky Nolasco Sergio Mitre

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Bradley For Walker Talks Renewed?

By Tim Dierkes | December 7, 2005 at 1:08pm CDT

A reader emailed me saying that WSCR The Score (George Ofman) and ESPN Sports Radio 1000 (Bruce Levine) are reporting that the Cubs are talking again about a Milton Bradley for Todd Walker trade, to happen within the next day or two.  Levine reported this same rumor on November 29th. 

Thanks to Alex

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Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Dodgers Milton Bradley Todd Walker

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Juan Pierre Traded To Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | December 7, 2005 at 9:10am CDT

Well, it’s official – Juan Pierre will be playing center field for the Cubs in 2006.  I reported this deal as done back on November 23rd, and I rightfully caught plenty of flak for it.  So I immediately dialed up Jim Hendry’s personal line and demanded that he deal two of five possible pitchers for Pierre so that I wouldn’t look bad.  Hendry complied, threw in Sergio Mitre, and here we are.  (I’m kidding, obviously).

I’ll discuss Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto in a separate post.  For now, I want to take a closer look at Juan Pierre and what he "brings to the table."  Cubs fans seem thrilled with this acquisition, so I asked myself, "What exactly does Juan Pierre do well?"

Getting on base

Pierre boasts a .355 career OBP.  In 2005, the average NL CF got on base at a .340 clip.  So Pierre is a tick above average in that department despite all of the cool drag bunts and slap infield hits.  Available CFs who got on base more frequently than 35% of the time last year include Jason Michaels, Kenny Lofton, and Johnny Damon. Brad Wilkerson can be expected to top .355 in 2006, and Milton Bradley will probably come close. 

Baserunning and stealing

Well, once Pierre does get on, he’s a terror on the basepaths.  Right?  In 2005, Pierre was excellent at going from first to third, succeeding 43% of the time (surprisingly, that compares well to the rest of the league).  On the other hand, he only succeeded going from second to home 38% of the time, which is a poor mark.  It’s a small sample (21 attempts), but Chris Speier might want to consider throwing up the stop sign occasionally when Pierre comes his way.

Oh, but let’s not forget the steals.  Man, does this guy steal bases.  He’s averaged 52 steals in his five full seasons.  Still, Pierre’s career success rate at stealing is just 74%.  According to Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus,

"If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all."

Hmmm.  So you’re telling me Baker should never attempt a single stolen base with Pierre?  Something tells me that’s not going to happen.

Defense

Ah, but with his blazing speed, Pierre surely is among the game’s top defenders.  Er, not so much.  Ever heard of Bill James’s Range Factor?  It’s calculated by adding up putouts and assists, multiplying by nine, and dividing by the number of defensive innings played.  Here’s how some regular CFs ranked in 2005 in Range Factor.

Rank Player Range Factor
1 Jeremy Reed 3.05
2 Damon Hollins 2.95
3 Nook Logan 2.93
4 Johnny Damon 2.93
5 Brady Clark 2.85
6 Brad Wilkerson 2.84
11 Milton Bradley 2.68
15 Kenny Lofton 2.53
26 Preston Wilson 2.27
27 Corey Patterson 2.23
28 Juan Pierre 2.21

There’s our man, dead last in the game, well behind several freely available CFs.  I could dig up some more defensive metrics to say the same thing; I won’t bore you with those here.  He’s not a good fielder.

Power

C’mon now, it’s Juan Pierre.  He’s got less power than Neifi Perez.

Durability

Oh, that’s it.  Juan Pierre shows up to work every day, doesn’t get hurt.  I guess that’s worth something.  It kind of reminds me of the blowoff classes I had in college where the teacher would make Attendance 10% of your grade.

Conclusion

Am I missing something?  Juan Pierre is basically a more expensive Scott Podsednik without the defense.  He should probably be a fourth outfielder on most teams.  Color me unimpressed by this trade.

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Chicago Cubs Juan Pierre

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WSCR: Cubs Trade “Imminent”

By Tim Dierkes | December 6, 2005 at 6:17pm CDT

Several posters have alerted me to a George Ofman update on WSCR The Score in Chicago. Apparently Cubs GM Jim Hendry has pushed a scheduled 5:30 CST press conference to 8:00.  Ofman has managed to narrow down the trading partner to the Marlins or Devil Rays.

The Cubs have several trade candidates on those clubs: Juan Pierre, Aubrey Huff, and Julio Lugo are the likely suspects.  I’ll be at a poker game at 8:00, but I’m sure our loyal Cubs followers will keep you updated in the comments.

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Prior For Abreu: Forget It

By Tim Dierkes | December 6, 2005 at 10:36am CDT

One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu.  This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.

Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option.  According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.

While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution.  Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005.  Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low.  Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.

Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL.  The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons.  Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.

2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th

While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano.  Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.

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Chicago Cubs Philadelphia Phillies Bobby Abreu Mark Prior

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Freel Would Be Good Fit For Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | December 6, 2005 at 10:19am CDT

Over at The Cub Reporter, Arizona Phil recently outlined a sensible option for the Cubs’ leadoff spot that hasn’t been mentioned much.  He proposes that the Cubs should find a way to acquire the versatile Ryan Freel from the Reds.  Freel compares favorably to Juan Pierre and is further away from free agency.

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Update: Kearns For Jerome Williams

By Tim Dierkes | December 5, 2005 at 10:46pm CDT

According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Austin Kearns trade talk has gotten serious and Jerome Williams, not Sergio Mitre, would be included in the deal.

This new incarnation of the deal seems more equitable.  Unlike Mitre, Williams has had success in the Major Leagues in his career.  He pitched 106 innings after being dealt to the Cubs for LaTroy Hawkins, posting a 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.  Williams posted a spectacular 2.10 ERA in five September starts. 

Thanks to Alex

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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Austin Kearns Jerome Williams

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New Rumors: Luis Gonzalez, Brad Lidge

By Tim Dierkes | December 5, 2005 at 9:09pm CDT

In his latest article, Dayn Perry threw out some interesting trade bait names that I hadn’t heard too much previously.  Assuming Perry ran them by Rosenthal for a gut check, there could be some truth to these.

Brad Lidge to the Braves.  Now there’s an intriguing thought.  Could the Braves somehow emerge with the best closer on the market?  One who no one even knew was on the market?  I wouldn’t put it past Schuerholz.  I can’t see Houston doing the deal for anything less than catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or shortstop Elvis Andrus.

Luis Gonzalez to the Cubs.  This one occurred to me back on November 7th, but it was only idle speculation at that point:

"Speaking of Kevin Mench, why do teams desire him?  A redux of Luis Gonzalez would be better for the Cubs.  The deal would make sense for the Diamondbacks as well, as Gonzo and Shawn Green are blocking uber-prospect Carlos Quentin."

Troy Glaus to the Pirates.  Stranger things have happened, I guess.  The Bucs would at least have a nasty 1-2 punch in Glaus and Jason Bay.  Littlefield does have a stable of young arms with which he could broker a deal, if he’s willing to cough up the cash.

Kris Benson to the Royals.  Ugh.  Not so sure if Anna would sit well in Kansas City.  Benson as the de facto ace on a team going nowhere doesn’t sit well, either.

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Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Brad Lidge Luis Gonzalez

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Austin Kearns For Sergio Mitre?

By Tim Dierkes | December 5, 2005 at 6:56pm CDT

George Ofman of WSCR The Score is reporting from the winter meetings that the Reds have offered Austin Kearns to the Cubs in return for Sergio Mitre and and a minor leaguer.  I was able to get in touch with Ofman, and he mentioned that the minor leaguer was possibly righthander Ricky Nolasco. 

Kearns is still living off an excellent 2000 at A ball and 372 fluky at-bats with the Reds in 2002.  He’s got 25 HR pop, but the rest of his appeal is pure perceived potential.  Ah, alliteration.

Sergio Mitre has had an uninspiring Major League career with the Cubs, going 4-10 with a 6.12 ERA in 120 innings.  If nothing else, Mitre can tell his grandkids about that miraculous 16 shutout inning stretch where he outdueled both Roy Halladay and Josh Beckett in 2005.  Seriously, though, Mitre keeps the ball down and could be passable fifth starter one day.

Ricky Nolasco was almost traded to Texas in a Rafael Palmeiro deal back in 2003.  Palmeiro vetoed the trade, and Nolasco remained in the Cubs’ system.  He has a solid curveball and decent sinker.  Nolasco will be 23 soon, and he posted spectacular numbers at Double A in 2005.  The starter had previously failed in a 40 inning attempt at Triple A Iowa in 2004. 

Thanks to Alex.

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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Austin Kearns Sergio Mitre

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