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Cubs Interested In Bradley: Update

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Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus has confirmed the Cubs’ interest in center fielder Milton Bradley, and adds a few interesting tidbits.

According to Carroll, Bradley "figures to be a Dodger non-tender and is someone who doesn’t scare Dusty Baker." 

I’ve heard whispers of L.A. non-tendering Bradley before, and I find it downright baffling.  To throw away a world of potential just to do things "The Dodger Way" seems like a terrible business decision.  Whether or not Bradley is a guy you want to have a beer with, his talent is undeniable.

Consider: Bradley posted a 3.8 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) in just 283 at-bats in 2005.  Prorated for 600 at-bats, Bradley’s WARP would rank him second among all center fielders, behind only Jim Edmonds.  Bradley excels in all aspects of the game except for two: staying healthy and pleasing the media.  The continual injuries are why it’s not fair for me to prorate his WARP over 600 ABs and say he’s better than Andruw Jones.  But if the potential is there, why not pay $3-4MM to find out what he can really do?  Bradley is only 27.

The idea that Bradley could be a Cub for absolutely nothing should make Cubs fans salivate.  However, it’s been pointed out that Dusty Baker never seemed in full control of Sammy Sosa or Kent Mercker, so it remains to be seen if he can get a handle on Bradley. 

Another good point that’s come up in the comments on this site is that the Cubs will have to cut or trade someone from the 40 man roster once the Bobby Howry signing is made official.  Some suggest Adam Greenberg, Jose Macias, or Brian Dopirak could be cut, but it’s more likely that a trade is imminent. 

       

Juan Pierre To Cubs Complete

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670 The Score in Chicago and RotoWorld are reporting that the Cubs have finalized their deal for center fielder Juan Pierre.  Left-handed starter Renyel Pinto and two other unknown prospects will head to the Marlins in the deal.

The trade was originally reported by Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000 on November 14th.  After speaking with Bruce, MLBTradeRumors.com was able to narrow the possible prospects down to a list of five pitchers.

The Cubs hope Pierre can bounce back after posting his lowest OBP since his rookie season.  Pierre’s game is reliant upon his ability to get on base.  He’s a subpar defender; Pierre posted the worst range factor in Major League Baseball in 2005 among regular center fielders.

The Marlins continue to stack up promising young pitchers as their fire sale continues.  Pinto struggled mightily in six Triple A starts, but did an admirable job in 129 Double A innings this year.  The stint in Triple A Iowa was his second failed attempt at that level.  Pinto continues to be plagued by his high walk rate, but hasn’t yet gotten a fair shake in Iowa.

Baseball America ranked the 23 year-old righthander 6th among Cubs prospects entering the 2005 season.  He has a good changeup, lively fastball, and deceptive delivery.   

Cubs Sign Bob Howry

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ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs have inked right-handed reliever Bob Howry to a three year, $12MM contract.  He will have his physical on Monday.

Howry will enter his age 32 season in 2006.  While his hit, home run, and walk rates were superb in 2005, his K/9 dropped to 5.9 from 8.2 the year before.  Like Scott Eyre, Howry has parlayed two solid relief seasons into a lucrative long-term deal with the Cubs.

Thanks to Alex

Rangers, Cubs, Reds Covet Jarrod Washburn

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There seems to be a consensus among sportswriters that Jarrod Washburn will end up a Texas Ranger.  I’ve spoken to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca about Washburn, and he thinks new GM Jon Daniels is willing to overpay for a decent starter this winter.

Steve Phillips also picked the Rangers as Washburn’s destination.  We all agree on his worth – a bit overrated after the 3.20 ERA, but a useful if somewhat overpaid 3rd starter.  I ranked him 19th on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents List, just behind Jeff Weaver.

De Luca also thinks the Cubs are a possible suitor given Washburn’s desire to play near his hometown of LaCrosse, Wisconsin.  The Brewers seemed like a logical choice, but De Luca informed me that Milwaukee has stated that they will not pursue Washburn.  GM Doug Melvin has publicly stated that he won’t pay $8MM+ for a starter after the lackluster results of last year’s free agent signings.

It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable.  Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder.  GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn.  Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often.  The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter.  The Cards’ flirtation with Greg Maddux a few years back certainly influenced his ultimate return to Chicago. 

A dark horse in the Washburn sweepstakes is the Reds.  We know they’ll bring in some sort of starter – ESPN expects Cincinnati to make a run at Paul Byrd.  Washburn is younger than Byrd, but Byrd allows fewer baserunners due to pinpoint control.  One thing’s for sure: Cincinnati is a lot closer to LaCrosse than Arlington is. 

If the Reds pass on both Washburn and Byrd, expect Kenny Rogers to be on their radar.  He’s shown an above average ability to limit the long ball, a skill the Reds have come to appreciate after the Eric Milton debacle.   

Scott Eyre Signs With Cubs

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As has been reported in many places, the Cubs inked Scott Eyre today to a two-year deal with an option for the third year.  It’s one of the first free agent signings, and Eyre will certainly solidify the Cubs’ pen.

If you think $3MM+ per year is a little much for a lefty reliever with a 4.52 career ERA, you’re probably right.  The Cubs are paying a premium for the safer choice by signing the 33 year-old.  The deal still looks to be better than the three year pact Hendry gave to Mike Remlinger.  Eyre should have at least one or two solid years for the Cubs.

Hendry’s initial moves this offseason were summed up nicely by Bleed Cubbie Blue commenter zambranofan: 

"Hendry has been filling the roster with players who fit typical roles…and overpaying slightly for them.  $3M a year for a LOOGY?  $2.5M a year for a backup middle infielder?  $3M a year for a sixth starter and swing man?"

It’s the quick fix approach to building a contender, and it should be an active offseason for the North Siders.  This will be a significantly different team in 2006.

Thanks to Ben K.

Walker For Heilman Trade Legitimate

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I’ve noticed various outlets claiming the rumored Todd Walker for Aaron Heilman trade was fabricated.  While I’m not sure if the deal will ultimately go through, I can guarantee that the rumor is on the level.

According to Kevin Burkhardt of WFAN in New York, the Mets have been dangling Heilman in front of the Cubs in an attempt to acquire Walker.  The rumor originally aired on November 12th, and I’ve contacted Burkhardt in an attempt to get more info.

Juan Pierre To The Cubs: Update

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Yesterday, Bruce Levine reported that the Cubs are in the "final stages" of a trade for Marlins center fielder Juan Pierre. 

This afternoon, I was able to get in touch with Bruce to obtain a little more info on the deal.  It seems that the Marlins are still a little shaky on this deal; they’re not sure whether to hold out and target top-tier prospects or to pull the trigger now just to dump Pierre’s salary.

Also, Levine confirmed that Rich Hill will not be part of any deal for Pierre.  Levine said the Marlins are indeed looking for young pitching.  As a refresher, here are some top hurlers from the Cubs’ minor league system who may be available:

Jae-kuk Ryu
Ricky Nolasco
Sean Marshall
Renyel Pinto
Angel Guzman

Chicago’s recent trade history with Florida has had mixed results.  Most would agree the Cubs made out like bandits getting Derrek Lee for Hee Seop Choi, but that trade was motivated very much by salary concerns.

The Marlins’ unloading of Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca for Dontrelle Willis worked out in their favor, although Clement was an integral part of the Cubs’ 2003 playoff run.

Juan Pierre To The Cubs

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Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post has been floating Juan Pierre rumors for some time now.  The Yankees have backed off, but apparently the Cubs are still very interested. 

ESPN Radio’s Bruce Levine is reporting that the Cubs are in the "final stages" of a trade for Pierre.  Levine claims that the Cubs would only surrender minor leaguers in the deal.  Corey Patterson is not expected to be involved.

No names were mentioned, so it’s open to speculation.  I doubt Pierre could bring in a jewel like Felix Pie or Brandon Sing.  Top Double A West Tenn pitchers from ’05 included Jae-kuk Ryu, Ricky Nolasco, Sean Marshall, and Renyel Pinto.  Angel Guzman has looked decent in the AFL. 

Nolasco had a fine year in Double A after a rough turn in Triple A Iowa the previous year.  Given Ryu’s questionable behavior in the past, he could be paired with Nolasco in the deal.  Jermaine Van Buren is expendable as well.  We’ll wait to see if Bruce Levine can expound upon the minor leaguers involved.

The 27 year-old Pierre’s stock dropped considerably in 2005.  He posted a career-low .326.  His defense was far from spectacular as well, but Pierre hasn’t really been a good defender for years.  Pierre’s value as a leadoff hitter is very dependent on his OBP, so Hendry is banking that he can reach base 37% of the time as he did in 2004.

Durability is a point in Pierre’s favor.  He’s played every single game for the last three seasons.  Pierre is also somewhat affordable, although that could change after arbitration.

Thanks to Brian B. for the tip.

 

Cubs To Trade Todd Walker For Aaron Heilman

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A new trade rumor has been floated from New York today.  We all know Todd Walker is on the trading block; it seems the Mets are interested. 

Word is that the Cubs will deal Walker to the Mets for Aaron Heilman, straight up.  If the rumor holds up, this could help both teams. 

Strangely, the Mets still seem to have little faith in Heilman despite his breakout 2005.  Heilman just turned 27, and he misses bats.  He has yet to settle into his role as a pitcher.  Heilman could serve in the swing role for the Cubs if Glendon Rusch becomes a permanent rotation fixture.  Having a pitcher versatile enough to start, close, and do everything in-between may be a new trend in baseball. 

Walker is what he is – all hit, no glove.  He’s definitely an above average hitter for a second baseman.  You’ll see that Walker was the 20th best 2B in 2005 once you consider fielding.  If he can stay healthy for 550 at-bats, however, he might crack the top ten in 2006 despite the poor defense.

The move would take the Mets out of their dance with Rafael Furcal and increase the chances the Cubs sign him. 

Heilman wasn’t seen as an integral part of the proposed Manny Ramirez trade, so those talks would stay alive.

Thanks to Brian from Edison for the tip.

Kevin Mench To The Cubs

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The Cubs are hot on the trail of Kevin Mench to fill one of their vacant outfield spots.  Given that the Rangers have a need for a center fielder, it’s been speculated that Corey Patterson would be sent to Texas.

At age 27, Mench may have already reached his ceiling offensively.  His AVG, OBP, and SLG all took a dip in 2005, his first full season.  Mench didn’t rely on Ameriquest for his 25 home runs, as his splits are pretty even.  He still has three years until free agency.  Mench might be better served as a lefty-masher in a platoon – he slugged .600 vs. lefties in ’05.

Corey Patterson is long on potential, but has absolutely no ability to control the strike zone.  The Rangers are hoping 2005 was rock bottom for Patterson. 

Given the Cubs’ need for bullpen help, Jim Hendry may try to get Joaquin Benoit in the deal.  Despite throwing a solid 87 innings in 2005, the 28 year-old righthander probably won’t be considered for the Rangers’ starting rotation in 2006.  Benoit has an electric fastball and great K rate, but his problems with walks and home runs may run him out of town.  He’s a great sleeper if he ever snags a starting gig.

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