Cubs Close On Cliff Floyd
I swear I used that headline last week, but here are. Paul Sullivan reports that the Cubs are "on the verge" of acquiring Cliff Floyd.
He’d platoon with Matt Murton, which begs the question: why does Murton need a platoon partner? As I said five days ago:
"It seems like a great way to stunt Matt Murton‘s growth and waste a year of cheap service time. Floyd hit .266/.342/.423 against righties in ’06. Murton managed a .295/.356/.426 line against them in his first full season. The Big Murt also hit .319/.390/.522 after the break. And he has red hair."
There better be a brilliant Jacque Jones trade in the offing. Still, while nonsensical, this move won’t rival the Jose Vidro trade for the offseason’s worst.
Cliff Floyd To Cubs Soon?
According to Jerry Crasnick in today’s chat for ESPN, he remarked on the status of the Cubs’ negotations with free agent outfielder Cliff Floyd:
"I’m hearing that the Cliff Floyd signing will come soon. He has some health issues, but he’s a good on base percentage guy and a great clubhouse guy. He should be a nice fit for the Cubs."
Floyd’s power plummetted in 2006, another injury-plagued year. Cornelius Clifford Floyd, born in Chicago, recently turned 34. He’s been connected to the Cubs and Jim Hendry for years.
I’m guessing he’d be the part of a left field platoon that faces righties. I don’t like the idea. It seems like a great way to stunt Matt Murton‘s growth and waste a year of cheap service time. Floyd hit .266/.342/.423 against righties in ’06. Murton managed a .295/.356/.426 line against them in his first full season. The Big Murt also hit .319/.390/.522 after the break. And he has red hair.
If a Floyd signing precedes a Jacque Jones trade, who plays right? Floyd hasn’t done it since ’02. And when Floyd gets hurt, the Cubs will miss the reliably mediocre Jones. If Soriano goes to right, the Cubs are forced to rush Felix Pie.
Cubs Sign Jason Marquis
As has been rumored for a while now, the Cubs have signed 28 year-old righthander Jason Marquis. The Tribune says three years, $20MM, while the Post-Dispatch says three years, $28MM.
I think this is a bad signing. I was actually naive enough to suggest yesterday that Marquis would draw a tiny commitment of just one year and $3MM – after all, he is coming off a 6.02 ERA. I figured it would be comparable to the Kip Wells deal – too much uncertainty to guarantee more than a year.
The Cubs didn’t feel that way; now it’s up to Larry Rothschild to coax three league average innings out of Marquis. Apparently eating innings, no matter how poorly, is worth $6-9MM per season.
UPDATE: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick says it’s for three years and $21MM.
Cubs Close To Signing Jason Marquis
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirmed a rumor Bruce Levine first reported yesterday – that Jason Marquis is close to signing with the Cubs.
It’s easy to look at Marquis’s 6.02 ERA and question why any team would give him a million or three to pitch next year. However, it should be noted that Tony La Russa left Marquis in to save the bullpen on two occasions – June 21 against the White Sox (13 ER in 5 IP) and July 18th against the Braves (12 ER in 5 IP). Let’s take those two starts out, for the sake of argument.
With two slaughter starts included: 6.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 10.2 H/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.28 K/BB
With two slaughter starts removed: 5.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.24 K/BB
Alright, that experiment still shows that Marquis had an awful year. But at least it was somewhat less awful than it looked. Think Steve Trachsel/Jamey Wright territory, with Miguel Batista upside.
We can see that compared 2005, Marquis’s HR prevention and control worsened a bit (although not terribly so). The biggest difference was a groundball percentage that dropped from 52% to 43%. He needs to get the sink back – Cesar Izturis can do the rest.
Marquis isn’t a great pitcher. His strikeout rate is dangerously low. But he could be good for 200 innings and a 4.50 ERA – I think there’s at least a 50% chance of that. 4.49 was the National League average ERA in 2006. It’s a gamble that’s worth the $3MM he’ll probably want.
Time To Think About Carlos Zambrano
By waiting until after the season to work out an extension for third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs probably cost themselves millions of dollars. Luckily, they still got him for less than the going rate in the end.
Surely Jim Hendry and Co. are wary of a similar scenario occurring with staff ace Carlos Zambrano. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes:
"Talks have yet to begin on Zambrano’s extension, and probably won’t get serious until the start of spring training if the past is any indication."
While some feel that Zambrano’s price rose to over $100 million because of recent free agent signings, I would counter that it was $100 million all along. Compare Zambrano to Barry Zito as the Tribune did.
1. Zambrano is a full three years younger than Zito.
2. Zito has six straight seasons of 200+ innings; Zambrano has four.
3. In their careers, Zambrano has been tougher to hit, better at home run prevention, and has a significantly better strikeout rate.
4. In peripheral stats, Zito’s only advantage is mildly better control.
Say for the sake of argument that Zito gets six years, $100MM. In my mind that makes Zambrano in line for at least a seven year, $130MM deal. That would be $18.5MM annually. Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald even suggests Zambrano could be a $20MM player.
Perhaps the Cubs should move to sign Zambrano before Zito signs, as Zito’s contract could be a point of reference for agent Barry Praver. At least Jim Hendry can be relieved that Zambrano fired Scott Boras at the beginning of this year.
Cubs Minor Dealings
Today the Cubs selected busted prospect Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5 draft and shipped him to the Reds for cash.
A deal with Daryle Ward to bolster the bench is close.
The Cubs are still talking to Cliff Floyd‘s agent. Last night it was said that they had requested medical records.
Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 reports that a signing of pitcher Jason Marquis may be near.
Cubs Still Pursuing Gil Meche
Jim Hendry said all along he wanted to acquire two, or even three starters this winter. True to his word, the Cubs are still pursuing Gil Meche after inking Ted Lilly. (By the way, Hendry is said to be fine and should be out of the hospital Thursday morning).
Keep in mind that Alfonso Soriano‘s contract is backloaded. Sori makes only $9MM in 2007, meaning the Cubs still have money to burn for Meche (note: I am unsure how Sori’s $8MM signing bonus is paid out). Hendry would probably have no problem tossing another $5MM to Cliff Floyd for old times’ sake, too. Hell, maybe the Cubs even go out and sign a third free agent starter to really cover themselves. It’s not like Lilly and Meche are horses.
Additionally, CubDumb spoke to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune today. Seems that the Cubs were going to get Lilly, no matter what it took.
Cubs Sign Ted Lilly
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Cubs have signed southpaw Ted Lilly to a four-year, $40MM contract. Lilly will turn 31 in January. The Cubs’ rotation now looks something like this:
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
New Guy
Mark Prior/Wade Miller
The price isn’t too bad; I thought Lilly could’ve snagged as much as $12MM annually if he waited longer.
A month ago I had a full writeup of Lilly here at MLBTradeRumors. Check it out.
Meche Still Undecided
John Hickey has an update as the Gil Meche sweepstakes seesaws back and forth between the Cubs and Blue Jays.
With the Yanks and Cubs chasing Lilly and the Jays and Cubs after Meche, one of the teams is going to be left standing when the music stops.
Lilly Derby Down To Cubs and Yankees
Ken Davidoff of Newsday has the scoop after talking to Ted Lilly‘s agent: his decision will come down to the Cubs or Yankees. He meets with the Yankees tonight.