Willy Taveras, Jarrod Washburn Mentioned For Cubs
Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca has a few names he thinks would work for the Cubs. Said De Luca today:
"It’s too bad Wood’s future is so murky. The Houston Astros, in need of pitching and always in the market for homegrown stars such as Wood, are listening to offers for center fielder Willy Taveras, the runner-up in National League Rookie of the Year voting. With the Astros showing more trust in Chris Burke during the postseason, Taveras has become a hot name on the trade market."
While one Juan Pierre in the lineup has a chance of working, two of them certainly would not. You can’t get four home runs between two outfield spots.
De Luca also mentions that Jarrod Washburn and his 3.20 ERA "should have been an option, but Hendry has shown little interest in the left-hander." De Luca first mentioned the Cubs as a possible suitor back on November 18th.
I can’t agree here either. If you compare Washburn’s indicators (baserunners and HR allowed, strikeout rate) you’ll notice that Washburn posted a 4.64 ERA in 2004 with indicators very similar to this year. In other words, a huge chunk of that 3.20 that’s going to earn Washburn an extra $10MM can be attributed to luck.
Don’t Expect Luis Gonzalez Return For Cubs
Thinking a Luis Gonzalez homecoming to the Cubs might be an adequate solution? The Cubs don’t. I recently spoke to Daily Herald writer Bruce Miles, who told me that the Cubs have "no interest."
Apparently, the Cubs are turned off by Gonzalez’s weak arm being a part of their outfield defense. While a notch above Jeromy Burnitz, the 38 year-old Gonzalez is slipping offensively. His .459 SLG in 2005 was his worst since 1997. Gonzalez is known to be on the trading block along with Javier Vazquez and Shawn Green.
Gonzalez is most notable for his face, which makes it look like he’s always smiling. A close second would be his ridiculous, almost Ruthian 2001. That year, Gonzo hit .325 with 57 HR and 142 RBI. He posted an OPS of 1117 (69th all time). If you’re curious, the all-time record for on-base plus slugging percentage was Barry Bonds‘s 2004 (1421). Bonds got on base more than 3 out of 5 times that year, easily a record.
Walker For Bradley: Update
I’ve lost track of how many of these Todd Walker for Milton Bradley posts I’ve written. According to an emailer, Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs are awaiting word from the Dodgers on this trade – the offer of Walker is on the table. No timetable was given for a decision.
Levine’s been all over this one since November; he mentioned yesterday that it could happen before the weekend.
Thanks to Alex
Miguel Tejada Wants Out
I had received a few tips from readers about Miguel Tejada possibly being traded. I didn’t print anything because I couldn’t substantiate them. Turns out those readers were on target; today Tejada said, "I think the best thing will be a change of scenery." You can bet Tejada’s proclamation will get the hot stove buzzing once again.
It’s a strange thing for Tejada to say, given that the Orioles have several months left to improve their team. He said that the Orioles "have not made any signings to strengthen the club." If I were Ramon Hernandez, I’d be slightly offended by that remark. And to think the two were teammates for so many years.
Anyway, let’s begin with Tejada’s contract. He’ll make $10MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09. That’s $48MM over four years. He’d certainly snag more than that on the open market. Tejada isn’t even 30 yet, and you know all about his offensive accolades and durability. One mild sign of a possible decline is that Tejada slugged only .416 after the All-Star break in ’05, hitting seven home runs. Still, that’s only 300 ABs and he may have felt uninspired.
Here’s what we’re all wondering: where might Tejada end up?
Boston Red Sox. Of course, they have a huge need for a shortstop and plenty of cash. There’s even an article circulating saying that Tejada might want to play for the Red Sox. The Sox could offer up Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia for starters. The one little problem is that the Orioles still consider themselves competitive, and would probably be reluctant to trade within the division. Back when the Red Sox dealt Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to the Orioles for Mike Boddicker, the O’s were completely out of the race.
Chicago Cubs. I’m thinking that if Jim Hendry removes Felix Pie from the "untouchables" list, the Orioles would seriously consider shipping Tejada their way. If the Cubs included Ronny Cedeno to take Tejada’s vacant spot, a deal could get done quickly. (This is all speculation, of course).
New York Mets. The Mets seem willing to give Jose Reyes all the time he needs to develop into a leadoff threat at shortstop. But Omar’s been mortgaging the future this winter like it’s going out of style, so you think he’d at least inquire. The Orioles’ response would probably include the words "Lastings" and "Milledge."
Toronto Blue Jays. If the Orioles do decide to deal within the AL East, the Blue Jays could get involved. Russ Adams is OK, but Ricciardi might have interest anyway.
Houston Astros. If ownership doesn’t mind the commitment, the ‘Stros might try to allocate some of that now-available Clemens cash for a marquee shortstop. Not sure if they’ve got the prospects to cut it, though.
What do you think? Any teams I’ve left out? What players would it take to get a deal done?
Thanks to Tom and Dennis
Cubs Still Chasing Aubrey Huff
Eduardo Encina is a Devil Rays beat writer for the Tampa Tribune. In today’s article, Encina makes it clear that Aubrey Huff is prepared to leave Tampa Bay this winter. He mentions the Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Angels, and Orioles as the interested parties.
I spoke to Encina late last night, and he elaborated on some of the details concerning Huff. Encina listed five different suitors for Huff in his article, but mentioned to me that there are actually seven teams hot on his trail. He told me the Cubs are the "most interested team." One team not mentioned in his article that is in play is the Mets.
Encina mentioned that Huff rumors get complicated mainly because of all the possibilities for a package deal with Julio Lugo, Toby Hall, or Danys Baez. He said Huff is the player the Rays are most eager to deal, but they require a "top-prospect pitcher and a position player add in." This quote from Huff in Encina’s article makes it clear that Aubrey has packed his bags:
"It always seems like they’re shopping me around to see what they’re going to get. You don’t shop unless you mean it."
Given that the Cubs are the frontrunners at the moment, who could they send over to acquire Huff? In my estimation, the pitcher required would be one of Angel Guzman, Rich Hill, and Sean Marshall. In perusing the position players on the Cubs’ 40 man roster, it makes sense that catcher Geovany Soto could be involved as well.
UPDATE: I spoke to Encina a little bit more, and he told me a trade of Toby Hall is becoming "more unlikely by the day." Given that and an impending Lugo deal, the Rays could try to obtain a shortstop as part of a Huff trade. Regardless, the focus of the Devil Rays will continue to be pitching.
The Price Of Pierre
You already know how I feel about Juan Pierre. What’s the deal with the three pitchers the Cubs shipped over to get him?
Renyel Pinto is a 23 year-old southpaw with a plus changeup and 94 mph fastball. While ranked the Cubs’ 6th best prospect by Baseball America before the 2005 season, he’s now dropped out of the top ten. If you look at Pinto’s numbers the last couple of years, he’s mastered Double A but can’t crack Triple A. However, he’s gotten only about 30 innings in Iowa as an opportunity. Pinto prevents home runs well and strikes people out, but is a bit generous with the walks.
Ricky Nolasco is a 23 year-old righthander with a low 90s sinker and a good curveball. Nolasco was ranked just 19th among Cubs prospects before the ’05 season, and was upgraded to 7th overall after this performance in Double A this year. The Cubs pushed him up to Iowa for 40 innings in ’04 and he didn’t fare well. Nolasco has pretty good control and nice strikeout numbers. He was to be sent to the Rangers for Rafael Palmeiro in 2003, but Palmeiro vetoed the deal.
Cubs fans might be a little more familiar with Sergio Mitre, as he’s thrown 121 uninspiring innings in the big leagues. Mitre has looked OK at Iowa, but has been never been able to translate success save for a brilliant 16 inning stretch this year. He might be able to crack the back end of Florida’s rotation in due time.
To sum it up, the Cubs didn’t really give up any can’t miss prospects in this trade.
Bradley For Walker Talks Renewed?
A reader emailed me saying that WSCR The Score (George Ofman) and ESPN Sports Radio 1000 (Bruce Levine) are reporting that the Cubs are talking again about a Milton Bradley for Todd Walker trade, to happen within the next day or two. Levine reported this same rumor on November 29th.
Thanks to Alex
Juan Pierre Traded To Cubs
Well, it’s official – Juan Pierre will be playing center field for the Cubs in 2006. I reported this deal as done back on November 23rd, and I rightfully caught plenty of flak for it. So I immediately dialed up Jim Hendry’s personal line and demanded that he deal two of five possible pitchers for Pierre so that I wouldn’t look bad. Hendry complied, threw in Sergio Mitre, and here we are. (I’m kidding, obviously).
I’ll discuss Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto in a separate post. For now, I want to take a closer look at Juan Pierre and what he "brings to the table." Cubs fans seem thrilled with this acquisition, so I asked myself, "What exactly does Juan Pierre do well?"
Getting on base
Pierre boasts a .355 career OBP. In 2005, the average NL CF got on base at a .340 clip. So Pierre is a tick above average in that department despite all of the cool drag bunts and slap infield hits. Available CFs who got on base more frequently than 35% of the time last year include Jason Michaels, Kenny Lofton, and Johnny Damon. Brad Wilkerson can be expected to top .355 in 2006, and Milton Bradley will probably come close.
Baserunning and stealing
Well, once Pierre does get on, he’s a terror on the basepaths. Right? In 2005, Pierre was excellent at going from first to third, succeeding 43% of the time (surprisingly, that compares well to the rest of the league). On the other hand, he only succeeded going from second to home 38% of the time, which is a poor mark. It’s a small sample (21 attempts), but Chris Speier might want to consider throwing up the stop sign occasionally when Pierre comes his way.
Oh, but let’s not forget the steals. Man, does this guy steal bases. He’s averaged 52 steals in his five full seasons. Still, Pierre’s career success rate at stealing is just 74%. According to Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus,
"If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all."
Hmmm. So you’re telling me Baker should never attempt a single stolen base with Pierre? Something tells me that’s not going to happen.
Defense
Ah, but with his blazing speed, Pierre surely is among the game’s top defenders. Er, not so much. Ever heard of Bill James’s Range Factor? It’s calculated by adding up putouts and assists, multiplying by nine, and dividing by the number of defensive innings played. Here’s how some regular CFs ranked in 2005 in Range Factor.
| Rank | Player | Range Factor |
| 1 | Jeremy Reed | 3.05 |
| 2 | Damon Hollins | 2.95 |
| 3 | Nook Logan | 2.93 |
| 4 | Johnny Damon | 2.93 |
| 5 | Brady Clark | 2.85 |
| 6 | Brad Wilkerson | 2.84 |
| 11 | Milton Bradley | 2.68 |
| 15 | Kenny Lofton | 2.53 |
| 26 | Preston Wilson | 2.27 |
| 27 | Corey Patterson | 2.23 |
| 28 | Juan Pierre | 2.21 |
There’s our man, dead last in the game, well behind several freely available CFs. I could dig up some more defensive metrics to say the same thing; I won’t bore you with those here. He’s not a good fielder.
Power
C’mon now, it’s Juan Pierre. He’s got less power than Neifi Perez.
Durability
Oh, that’s it. Juan Pierre shows up to work every day, doesn’t get hurt. I guess that’s worth something. It kind of reminds me of the blowoff classes I had in college where the teacher would make Attendance 10% of your grade.
Conclusion
Am I missing something? Juan Pierre is basically a more expensive Scott Podsednik without the defense. He should probably be a fourth outfielder on most teams. Color me unimpressed by this trade.
WSCR: Cubs Trade “Imminent”
Several posters have alerted me to a George Ofman update on WSCR The Score in Chicago. Apparently Cubs GM Jim Hendry has pushed a scheduled 5:30 CST press conference to 8:00. Ofman has managed to narrow down the trading partner to the Marlins or Devil Rays.
The Cubs have several trade candidates on those clubs: Juan Pierre, Aubrey Huff, and Julio Lugo are the likely suspects. I’ll be at a poker game at 8:00, but I’m sure our loyal Cubs followers will keep you updated in the comments.
Prior For Abreu: Forget It
One of the hot rumors at the moment is that the Cubs "didn’t say no" when the Phillies asked for Mark Prior in return for Bobby Abreu. This Philadelphia Daily News article only fueled the fire.
Hopefully putting the rumor to bed, Bruce Levine quoted Jim Hendry recently on ESPN Radio 1000 as saying Prior for Abreu is not an option. According to Levine, Carlos Zambrano is off the table as well.
While the Cubs need a shakeup and Abreu is a star, dealing one of their young, cheap ace pitchers isn’t the solution. Prior had home run and walk problems in 2005. Add in some injury concerns, and his value may be at an all-time low. Given his career 10.5 K/9 mark over 613 innings, Prior still has the chance to take back his spot as one of the best pitchers in the league.
Zambrano actually is one of the best pitchers in the NL. The 24 year old has a 3.26 career ERA and has pitched 200 innings in each of his three full seasons. Here’s how his overall ranking in the NL for each of the last three seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus’s VORP statistic.
2003 – 11th
2004 – 4th
2005 – 10th
While Abreu should certainly bring a young pitcher in return, Hendry would be overpaying to include Prior or Zambrano. Given Abreu’s salary and age, Erik Bedard seems like a more appropriate bounty.