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2012 Vesting Options Update

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It's the final day of the month, so let's check the status of the various vesting options around the league…

  • Bobby Abreu, Angels: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances. Abreu is more than a quarter of the way there already; he has 116 PA after today's game.
  • Rafael Furcal, Dodgers: $12MM option vests with 600 plate appearances. Furcal came to the plate 28 times before breaking his thumb. He's going to miss another three to five weeks, so he's unlikely to see the option vest.
  • Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM option vests with 190 innings pitched. Garland started the year on the disabed list and has thrown just 20 innings so far. He should still get there if he stays healthy.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Mets: $17.5MM option vests with 55 games finished and if doctors declare him healthy at the end of the season. K-Rod has finished eight games so far, but you have to think the club will use him in a way to prevent the option from vesting.
  • Koji Uehara, Orioles: $4MM option vests with either 55 appearances or 25 games finished. Uehara has appeared in eight games and finished four, putting him on pace for 54 and 27, respectively.
  • Arthur Rhodes, Rangers: $4MM option vests with 62 appearances and if he's not on the disabled list at the end of the season. He's appeared in eight games so far, putting him on pace for 50. Injuries to the some of his bullpen mates could increase Rhodes' workload though.
  • Joakim Soria, Royals: $6MM option vests with 55 appearances. He's already appeared in 12 games and is on pace for 75.
  • Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM option vests with 65 games; increases to $3.25MM with 70 games. Wheeler has appeared in just eight games so far, so he'll have to start seeing more time for the option to kick in.

Adam Wainwright's 2012 ($9MM) and 2013 ($12MM) options will not vest because he will finish the season on the disabled list. Aramis Ramirez's option depends on MVP Award finishes and whether or not he's traded, not plate appearances or another counting milestone.

Mark Buehrle is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2011 season and although he doesn't have a traditional option in his contract, he gets an extra year at $15MM tacked onto his current deal if he's traded at some point this season. 

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Dead Money: Paying Players To Play Elsewhere

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Eating money in trades or by releasing players is far from an ideal business practice, but sometimes it's a necessary evil. The Mets believe they are better off paying Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo a combined $18MM not to be on their team this year, and released the two just last month. David Wharton of The Los Angeles Times wrote about the concept of "dead money" today, speaking to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti, sports economist J.C. Bradbury, and Scott Boras.

With some help from Cot's Baseball Contracts, let's look at the teams that are paying players to be anywhere but on their roster this season…

This doesn't include money the Braves owe Kenshin Kawakami ($7.4MM) or the Yankees owe Kei Igawa ($4MM). Both Japanese imports remain in the organization, but they've since been banished to the minor leagues. It also doesn't include all the money the Mets famously owe Bobby Bonilla for the next two decades.

Yuniesky Betancourt is the only player collecting paychecks from three different big league teams at the moment, but Carlos Silva could join him if he's called up by the Yankees. Gary Matthews Jr. could also be in that mix if he catches on somewhere this summer.

Heyman On Lincecum, Cano, Votto, Weaver, Dodgers

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Ryan Braun's $105MM, five-year contract extension through 2020 seemed like it came out of nowhere, but a ton of other young stars also appear to be in line for new deals, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Heyman runs down the 20-somethings that could get hefty contract extensions and touches on a few other things in today's column..

  • Giants ace Tim Lincecum won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, but San Francisco would be wise to lock him up before his arbitration numbers get out of hand.  A third Cy Young season could potentially bring Lincecum from $14MM into the $25MM range and possibly to $30MM in '13.  Heyman expects a deal to get done, even if it costs the club a fortune.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes touched on the Lincecum situation here and here, and will have much more on the topic next week.
  • Similarly, there's no reason to think the Yankees would let Robinson Cano leave in the prime of his career.  The Bombers have options for 2012 and '13 at $14MM and $15MM, respectively, and will obviously exercise them. Look for the Yanks to get a deal done with the second baseman, but only after the Scott Boras client files for free agency.
  • Reds slugger Joey Votto will hit the open market after 2013 and it would be wise for the club to lock him up as the youngster continues to improve.  This winter he signed a three-year, $38MM to take care of his arbitration years, but his rate will presumably rise after that deal is up.  Heyman believes that the Reds will lock up Votto, just as they did with Jay Bruce.  This winter, Cincinnati signed the right fielder to a six-year, $51MM deal.
  • Even though the Marlins' poor attendance would seem to indicate that the club doesn't have the funds to sign Josh Johnson to a new deal, they are on their way to a brand-new facility in the near future.  Putting that aside, they're still in the black. His $39MM, four-year deal goes through 2013 but his next contract should easily top that.
  • If you're a Halos fan looking to purchase a Jered Weaver jersey, you may want to reconsider.  Heyman writes that the right-hander is all but a goner in two years.  Agent Scott Boras is talking his client up and the Angels don't have a history of keeping their top free agents anyway.  It's possible that the next Dodgers owner, assuming there is one, could talk the Simi Valley product into a homecoming.
  • It may come as a surprise to some, but Heyman predicts that Andre Ethier will remain with the Dodgers beyond 2012.  GM Ned Colletti is believed to want to lock up Ethier along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Even though the Dodgers' situation is probably too messy for anything to get done right away, they have to act fast to keep the 29-year-old. 
  • You can also expect the Dodgers to work something out with Kemp, who is also a free agent after 2012. 
  • Of the 33 players that Heyman profiles, he expects most to get new deals done with their respective clubs.  Some of the players that we may see elsewhere: John Danks, Shin Soo-Choo, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, and Shaun Marcum.
  • TV magnate Burt Sugarman is one name believed to be in the mix among potential buyers of the Dodgers.  Investment banker Jason Reese and billionaire Ron Burkle are also in the mix.  Burkle is teaming with former Dodgers great Steve Garvey.

Guillen Discusses Future In Chicago

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White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he knows his bosses will consider firing him if the team doesn’t perform. And though he says he wants to stay in the White Sox organization for the rest of his life, Guillen says GM Kenny Williams and owner Jerry Reinsdorf don’t owe him anything.

“If Kenny or Jerry doesn’t think I’m doing my job . . . they’re going to fire me because my players don’t produce,” Guillen told Rosenthal. “I respect that. I don’t mind getting fired. If I get fired, it’s for a reason. What reason? Me.”

Though several rival executives believe the White Sox would be better off without Guillen, at least one team covets the former shortstop as a future skipper. The 15-8 Marlins expressed interest in obtaining the rights to Guillen in the offseason are not currently discussing an extension for manager Edwin Rodriguez, who is on a one-year contract, according to Rosenthal.

Rosenthal notes that the White Sox asked for Logan Morrison in exchange for the right to hire Guillen last offseason, not Mike Stanton. Last fall, many reports indicated that Stanton was at the center of the discussions between the White Sox and Marlins.

Cafardo On Dodgers, Upton, Doumit, Red Sox

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Do not expect Dodgers owner Frank McCourt to go quietly into the night, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  The McCourt-Bud Selig saga could turn out to be one of the great sports legal battles of the 21st century.  While he's been silent publicly, major league sources close to McCourt indicate he is flabbergasted by Selig’s actions, and that he has not been able to discuss the issues with the commissioner face-to-face.  Here's more from Cafardo's Sunday column..

  • A couple of major league evaluators say the Rays could explore moving B.J. Upton if they fall out of contention, or even if they’re in contention.  They’d like to make a deal similar to the Matt Garza trade, in which they received good talent, including Sam Fuld.
  • The Pirates received calls on catcher Ryan Doumit this winter but the talks eventually petered out.  The Red Sox could be in the market for a backstop, but one talent evaluator says that Doumit isn't a great receiver and the club is better off sticking with Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  Pittsburgh’s Chris Snyder, who is off to a hot start, could also be available.
  • The Nationals are thought to be in the market for a center fielder and/or someone who can add give a boost to the Nats offense.
  • The White Sox lead the majors with six blown saves, but one club exec stands by the team's decision to let Bobby Jenks go.  Even though Jenks may do very well with Boston, it was the right decision, even if it doesn't look like it right now.
  • Cafardo was surprised to see BoSox chariman Tom Werner issue a statement that he wasn’t interested in pursuing ownership of the Dodgers.  Werner has Los Angeles roots and was once the owner of the Padres.  The chairman himself pointed out that his business and personal relationships with John Henry are too good to walk away from.

Chicago Notes: Byrd, Fuld, Zambrano, Peavy

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It was on this day in 1959 that Cubs right-hander Glen Hobbie, then 23, took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Cardinals.  The great Stan Musial broke up Hobbie's bid for immortality with a two-out double in the seventh — the only hit Hobbie would allow to Chicago's arch-rivals in a complete game gem.

Let's look at some items from both Hobbie's old team and their South Side brethren…

  • The Cubs aren't looking to deal Marlon Byrd, reports Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald.  Miles also looks at some of the Cubs' top prospects.
  • With Sam Fuld off to a hot start in Tampa Bay, some fans are wondering why the Cubbies couldn't have held onto the young outfielder rather than include him in the Matt Garza trade package.  As part of a mailbag, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat explains that Fuld was out of options and, had he remained in Chicago, he wouldn't have received much playing time in the crowded Cubs outfield.
  • Carlos Zambrano tells CSNChicago.com's David Kaplan that a proposed worldwide amateur draft would favor American-born prospects over Latin American prospects.  "I think a worldwide draft would be bad for the kids from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela because we are late developers. We don't have little league or a system of organized baseball to help us learn the game," Zambrano said. "When I was a kid we played maybe once a week, that's it. If kids from my country were drafted and then didn't develop quickly enough they wouldn't be around long."
  • Also from Kaplan, up to 65% (roughly $24MM) of Jake Peavy's remaining salary could be covered by an insurance policy.  This could give the White Sox some financial room to acquire another pitcher.  Barry Axelrod, Peavy's agent, tells Kaplan that it is much more difficult for teams to get insurance on multiyear pitching contracts today than it was for San Diego in 2009.  Peavy has yet to pitch in 2011 due to his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery, and is tentatively scheduled to return to the Sox rotation by mid-May.
  • Despite his team's seven-game losing streak, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen isn't worried about being on the hot seat, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin.

How Much Will John Danks Earn In 2012?

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If they don't sign extensions, starters John Danks, Matt Garza, Jeremy Guthrie, and Jered Weaver will enter fairly uncharted waters in the upcoming offseason as their agents attempt to establish their 2012 salaries.  As I mentioned earlier this month, top starters are unwilling to go year-to-year through arbitration these days.  We rarely see a healthy, ace-type pitcher make it to his third arbitration year, but Danks, Garza, Guthrie, and Weaver are primed to do just that.

Using Danks as a case study, I asked five arbitration experts what they think he'll earn in 2012.  Danks is at an even $6MM this year, and we're assuming a normal platform season from him in 2011.

The ceiling for Danks appears to be around $12MM.  Carlos Zambrano, who received a $5.9MM raise to $12.4MM for the 2007 season, is the comparable Danks' agent at CAA Sports (Jeff Berry) might aim for.  However, none of the five experts I spoke to thought Danks' career or platform year numbers will top Zambrano's.  Everyone instead predicted a salary in the $10-11MM range for Danks.  Zambrano had comparables of his own, by the way, as Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood received $6MM raises early in the decade.

There is an interesting possibility, depending on which pitcher in Danks' class settles first.  One arbitration consultant noted, "The best evidence in any arbitration hearing is the current class, and if these guys work together they could really redefine this entire market. I could see Danks getting $10.5-11MM right now. But would not be shocked if this group of pitchers changed that."  He gave an example of the first-time starting pitcher market shifting during the 2010-11 offseason, as Armando Galarraga became the new $2.3MM type and Kyle Kendrick and Kevin Slowey were able to do better.

Chicago pitchers Danks and Garza are particularly comparable, so that'll be an interesting parallel to follow throughout the season.  The 2012 starting pitching arbitration class is loaded with intrigue.  Clayton Kershaw and David Price will duke it out trying to top Dontrelle Willis' first-time record of $4.35MM (it appears both will succeed).  As a third-year arbitration eligible starter Weaver could post a Cy Young season and fly past $13MM.  Tim Lincecum, who is already at $13MM, is headed for an arbitration record-breaking salary.  Cole Hamels is in line for a huge bump as well, entering his fourth arbitration year coming off a $9.5MM salary.  If like many MLBTR readers you're fascinated by this stuff, January and February should be exciting months.

2012 Contract Issues: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.

Eligible For Free Agency (5)

  • Mark Buehrle is a 10-and-5 player, so if the White Sox trade him they need his permission.  I mention this because his contract has a unique clause that adds on a guaranteed $15MM for 2012 only if he's traded.  If he does reach free agency, Buehrle is inclined to play for a contender and in a place that is comfortable for his family.  Retirement isn't out of the question.  Buehrle told Dan McNeil of the Chicago Tribune last month that he doesn't know what the White Sox are thinking, and speculated that maybe they think Chris Sale could do a better job for a lot less money.
  • Edwin Jackson, a Scott Boras client, seems very likely to test the open market.  A breakout season would be nice for his wallet, but so far he's been his inconsistent self.  Though they could lose two starters to free agency, the Sox don't necessarily have to bring two in, if they want to try Sale or Jake Peavy is healthy.
  • Left fielder Juan Pierre is eligible for free agency, so the Sox may need a corner outfielder this offseason.
  • Omar Vizquel and Ramon Castro will also be eligible for free agency.

Contract Options (0)

Arbitration Eligible (3)

The White Sox may have to pay Danks, Quentin, and Pena $20MM for 2012.  That includes a $10MM estimate for Danks, which could be light.  Comparables are scarce for front-end starters in their final arbitration year, but Carlos Zambrano made the leap from $6.5MM to $12.4MM.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The White Sox have a $94.75MM payroll obligation for 2012, according to Cot's, with four $12MM+ salaries locked in.  Throw in another $20MM for the arbitration eligible players, and the team would have roughly $13MM to play with in 2012 salaries if payroll is held constant at $128MM.  The team might need a starter or two, a corner outfielder, and some veteran reserves, but GM Kenny Williams will have to be creative (perhaps by backloading contracts) if he wants to bring in high-salary players, unless payroll is increased again.

AL Central Notes: Sizemore, Martinez, White Sox

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Links from the AL Central, before the second-place Royals host the first-place Indians…

  • Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore, who has returned from microfracture knee surgery, tells Yahoo’s Jeff Passan that he feels healthy again. Passan explains that there’s no guarantee Sizemore will have the same explosiveness he had early in his career, even though he has recovered from the procedure.
  • The Tigers have called up Omir Santos from Triple-A, but have yet to announce a corresponding move, according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (on Twitter). The Tigers may have to cut someone if Victor Martinez doesn't need a DL stint.
  • Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald looks at the struggling White Sox and points out that Mark Teahen has likely improved his trade value a little with his strong start. That doesn't make up for Chicago's five-game losing streak, however.

Should They Have Been Non-Tendered?

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On November 2nd of last year I listed 85 non-tender candidates, most of whom were indeed cut loose.  Almost five months have passed since the December non-tender deadline, and I'd like to revisit five of those decisions.

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff, tendered a contract by the Athletics.  The A's certainly shopped around for third base alternatives after tendering a contract to Kouzmanoff, which ended up being for $4.75MM.  So far the third baseman has again been part of the problem, though he's not alone as the team ranks 11th in the AL with 3.63 runs scored per game.  There weren't many alternatives for the A's this offseason, but they probably should have saved Kouzmanoff's money for a trade deadline addition.  They'll still be able to pursue someone, though.
  • James Loney, tendered a contract by the Dodgers.  Loney is already on notice with the Dodgers given the arrival of Jerry Sands.  Loney settled for a predictable $4.875MM salary for 2011.  Sands doesn't actually project to do any better than Loney, but the two are close enough that the Dodgers probably should have traded Loney and used the money elsewhere.
  • Russell Martin, non-tendered by the Dodgers.  According to Yahoo's Steve Henson, Martin wanted a guaranteed $5.5MM rather than the Dodgers' offer of $4.2MM.  GM Ned Colletti made the difficult decision to non-tender Martin, but kept the offer on the table while suggesting a possible super-utility role.  Martin ended up taking less guaranteed money to start at catcher for the Yankees, and he's off to a great start.  The Dodgers could have forced Martin's hand by tendering a contract and arguing for a pay cut through arbitration.  That would have been a risky choice, and Martin's health was a concern at the time, so I can't fault the Dodgers for non-tendering him.
  • Bobby Jenks, non-tendered by the White Sox.  Non-tendering Jenks was the right move given his $7.5MM salary, and the pitcher understood that decision according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  However, Jenks and the Sox were not on the same page about the team's desire to retain him and confidence in his abilities, so he signed with Boston.  The White Sox lead baseball with six blown saves, but it was still best for them to part ways with Jenks.
  • Brandon McCarthy, outrighted by the Rangers in November.  If they had retained McCarthy, the Rangers probably would have had to pay him something similar to last year's $1.3MM salary rather than the $1MM he received from the A's.  McCarthy has looked good so far, though it's only been three starts.  The Rangers are second in the AL in starter ERA without McCarthy.  Still, given the strong offseason interest in him I think it would have been best to tender a contract and shop him around.
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